The USAID MFEWS Weather
Hazards Impacts Assessment for Central America November 5 – November 11, 2009
With the development of tropical activity in the Pacific, heavy rains are expected to continue in southern Guatemala as well as across parts of western Honduras and Nicaragua.
An increase in precipitation over central parts of Honduras and Nicaragua is expected to provide some relief to seasonal drought.
1) Precipitation deficits have resulted in poor crop conditions and local crop failures for a number of departments across central Guatemala.
2) Inconsistent and below-average rainfall throughout the primera season and into postrera season have led to insufficient soil moisture in central Honduras. Low rainfall totals are expected to continue through November.
3) Since August, poor rainfall
accumulations have led to insufficient soil moisture and reduced water availability along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua.
4) Heavy rains during the last week led to localized flooding, landslides, and some damages to infrastructure for many local areas in southern and western Guatemala.
Precipitation forecast suggest heavy rains to continue, which is expected to worsen ground conditions for many of these areas in Guatemala.
5) A slow moving tropical system is forecast to move inland over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras. Heavy rains and sustained winds may lead to localized flooding, landslides and damages to infrastructure.
MFEWS is a USAID-funded activity whose purpose is to provide objective information about food security conditions. Its views are not necessarily reflective of those of USAID or the U.S. Government. The MFEWS weather hazards assessment process and products include participation by MFEWS field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries such as, INETER of Nicaragua, Meteorological Service of Honduras, IMN of Costa Rica, INSIVUMEH of Guatemala, ETESA of Panama, NMS of Belize and SNET of El Salvador. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-763-8000 x7566. Questions about the USAID MFEWS activity may be directed to Gary Eilerts, USAID Program Manager for MFEWS, 1-202-219-0500 or geilerts@usaid.gov.
Some Improvement is expected for dry areas in Nicaragua and Guatemala
During the last observation period, increased amounts of precipitation were received throughout many parts of Central America. In Guatemala, the heaviest rains were observed in the south, with rainfall totals in ranging between 75-100mm. These rains brought isolated flooding, landslides, and damages to infrastructure in the Escuintla, Retalhuleu, Quetzaltenango, San Marcos, and the Huehuetenango departments throughout the southwest and northwest in the last seven days. In the Alta Verapaz department, increased rainfall has also resulted in elevated river levels along the Polochic River. In Honduras and Nicaragua, seven-day rainfall totals in excess of 50mm were also observed in areas north of the Gulf of Fonseca, which is expected to provide some relief for many local areas impacted by seasonal drought. In Costa Rica and Panama, seasonably moderate to heavy rainfall was received.
Forecast models show the development of tropical activity across the Pacific and Caribbean in the next seven days. During the earlier part of the observation period, a tropical depression in the southern Caribbean is expected to intensify, and move inland across eastern Nicaragua and Honduras producing heavy amounts of precipitation, and sustained winds <50 kts. The slow movement of this system may produce localized flooding, landslides and damages to infrastructure for many coastal areas. In addition, a developing tropical low in the Pacific may also produce heavy rains in southern Guatemala.
Tropical Depression Trajectory Forecast Issued: November 4th, 2009
Figure 1: Source NOAA / NHC
