• No results found

University of Groningen Temptation and restraint Jonker, Nienke Christina

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "University of Groningen Temptation and restraint Jonker, Nienke Christina"

Copied!
19
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)

Temptation and restraint

Jonker, Nienke Christina

DOI:

10.33612/diss.95014556

IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below.

Document Version

Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record

Publication date: 2019

Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database

Citation for published version (APA):

Jonker, N. C. (2019). Temptation and restraint: the role of reward and punishment sensitivity in anorexia nervosa, obesity, and unsuccessful dieting. Rijksuniversiteit Groningen.

https://doi.org/10.33612/diss.95014556

Copyright

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons).

Take-down policy

If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.

Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons the number of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum.

(2)



&KDSWHU

9LVXDODWWHQWLRQWRIRRGFXHVDQGWKHFRXUVHRIDQRUH[LDQHUYRVD                                     %DVHGRQ-RQNHU1&*ODVKRXZHU.$2VWDILQ%' 'H-RQJ3- XQGHUUHYLHZ  9LVXDODWWHQWLRQWRIRRGFXHVDQGWKHFRXUVHRIDQRUH[LDQHUYRVD

(3)



$EVWUDFW

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¶ULVNIRUUHODSVHIROORZLQJWUHDWPHQW

(4)





,QWURGXFWLRQ



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¶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

$Q$%WDVNWKDWZDVVSHFLILFDOO\GHVLJQHGWRGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQDWWHQWLRQDOHQJDJHPHQW DQGDWWHQWLRQDOGLVHQJDJHPHQWLVWKH$WWHQWLRQDO5HVSRQVHWR'LVWDOYV3UR[LPDO(PRWLRQDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ $5'3(,  WDVN *UDIWRQ  0DF/HRG   3RLQWLQJ WR WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI GLIIHUHQWLDWLQJ EHWZHHQ ERWK FRPSRQHQWV RI $% ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI HDWLQJ GLVRUGHUV D

(5)



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

0HWKRG

3DUWLFLSDQWV

3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDGROHVFHQWV IHPDOHV0DJH 6'DJH UDQJH ± 

ZKR IXOILOOHG '60 FULWHULD IRU $QRUH[LD 1HUYRVD RU DW\SLFDO $QRUH[LD 1HUYRVD DQG ZKR ZHUH UHIHUUHG IRU LQSDWLHQW RU RXWSDWLHQW WUHDWPHQW DW WKH $FFDUH GHSDUWPHQW RI HDWLQJ GLVRUGHUV EHWZHHQ -XQH  DQG -XQH  3DWLHQWV ZHUH HOLJLEOH IRU SDUWLFLSDWLRQ LQ WKH VWXG\LIWKH\ZHUHEHWZHHQWKHDJHVRIDQG\HDUV7KHUHZHUHQRDGGLWLRQDOLQFOXVLRQRU H[FOXVLRQ FULWHULD (DWLQJ GLVRUGHU SDWKRORJ\ ZDV H[DPLQHG ZLWK WKH 'XWFK FKLOG YHUVLRQ RI WKH(DWLQJ'LVRUGHU([DPLQDWLRQ ('( LQWHUYLHZ %U\DQW:DXJKHWDO'HFDOXZp  %UDHW   %DVHG RQ WKH ('( LQWHUYLHZ '60 FODVVLILFDWLRQV ZHUH PDGH 7KH SDWLHQW JURXS IXOILOOHG '60 FULWHULD IRU $QRUH[LD 1HUYRVD 5HVWULFWLYH W\SH Q    $QRUH[LD 1HUYRVD%LQJH3XUJHW\SH Q  DW\SLFDO$QRUH[LD1HUYRVD5HVWULFWLYHW\SH Q  RU DW\SLFDO$QRUH[LD1HUYRVD%LQJH3XUJHW\SH Q  2IWKHLQLWLDOSDUWLFLSDQWVZKRZHUH DVVHVVHG DW EDVHOLQH  SDUWLFLSDQWV   FRPSOHWHG WKH ('( LQWHUYLHZ DW IROORZXS RI ZKLFKSDUWLFLSDQWVFRPSOHWHGWKHIXOOIROORZXSDVVHVVPHQW 0DJH 6'DJH 

 3DWLHQWVZKRGURSSHGRXWGLGVREHFDXVHWKH\ZHUHQRWGRLQJZHOODQGIHOWLWZDVWRR PXFK   RU WKH\ MXVW VWDUWHG D QHZ LQWHQVLYH WUHDWPHQW SURJUDP DQG IHOW WKH\ FRXOG QRW PDQDJH  2QHSDWLHQWGLGQRWSURYLGHDUHDVRQ$WIROORZXSSDWLHQWV  ZHUHVWLOO LQWUHDWPHQWZHUHQRW  DQGSDWLHQWGLGQRWSURYLGHWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQ

0DWHULDOV

%RG\0DVV,QGH[

$GMXVWHG%0,ZDVFDOFXODWHG> DFWXDO%0,3HUFHQWLOHRI%0,IRUDJHDQGJHQGHU [@ WR PDNH WKH %0,¶V FRPSDUDEOH RYHU WKH DJH UDQJH RI JURXS &ROH HW DO   7KH WK SHUFHQWLOH RI %0, IRU DJH DQG JHQGHU ZDV REWDLQHG IURP WKH 1HWKHUODQGV 2UJDQL]DWLRQ IRU

(6)



 $SSOLHG 6FLHQWLILF 5HVHDUFK 712   $GMXVWHG %0, VFRUHV VPDOOHU WKDQ  DUH

FRQVLGHUHGDVXQGHUZHLJKWDQGEHWZHHQDQGDVKHDOWK\ZHLJKW 9DQ:LQFNHO  9DQ0LO  (DWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPV (DWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVZHUHDVVHVVHGZLWKWKH'XWFKFKLOGYHUVLRQRIWKH(DWLQJ'LVRUGHU ([DPLQDWLRQ ('( LQWHUYLHZ %U\DQW:DXJKHWDO'HFDOXZp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

$WWHQWLRQDOELDVWRIRRG

$WWHQWLRQDO ELDV WR IRRG FXHV ZDV PHDVXUHG ZLWK WKH $WWHQWLRQDO 5HVSRQVH WR 'LVWDO YV 3UR[LPDO (PRWLRQDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ $5'3(,  WDVN *UDIWRQ  0DF/HRG   (DFK WULDO VWDUWHGZLWKWZRZKLWHVTXDUHVRQHOHIWDQGRQHULJKWIURPWKHPLGGOHRIWKHVFUHHQDJDLQVWD PLGGOHJUD\EDFNJURXQG2QHRIWKHVHVTXDUHVFRQWDLQHGDUHG RXWOLQHWRZKLFKSDUWLFLSDQWV KDGWRIRFXVWKHLUDWWHQWLRQ7KLVRXWOLQHDSSHDUHGZLWKHTXDOSUREDELOLW\LQHLWKHUWKHOHIWRU WKHULJKWZKLWHVTXDUH$IWHUDVHFRQGDUHGKRUL]RQWDORUYHUWLFDOOLQH WKHDQFKRU DSSHDUHG IRUPVLQWKLVUHGRXWOLQH+HUHDIWHUWZRLPDJHVUHSODFHGWKHZKLWH VTXDUHV IRUPV LHVKRUWFXHGHOD\ RUPV LHORQJFXHGHOD\ 7KHVHLPDJHVZHUHDIRRGRUQHXWUDO LPDJH LH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQDO LPDJH  DQG DQ DEVWUDFW DUW LPDJH 7KH LPDJHV DSSHDUHG ZLWK HTXDO SUREDELOLW\ LQ HLWKHU WKH ULJKW RU OHIW ZKLWH VTXDUH /DVW WKH SUREH ± DQRWKHU UHG KRUL]RQWDORUYHUWLFDOOLQH±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

(7)



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± 57 IRU  SUREHV LQ VDPH ORFDWLRQ DV IRRG LPDJH  ± 57 IRU SUREHV LQ GLIIHUHQW ORFDWLRQ DV  QHXWUDOLPDJH±57IRUSUREHVLQVDPHORFDWLRQDVQHXWUDOLPDJH 

(8)



 7KH GLVHQJDJHPHQW ELDVHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG EDVHG RQ WULDOV LQ ZKLFK SDUWLFLSDQWV

DXWRPDWLFDOO\VDZWKHLPDJHVLQFHLWDSSHDUHGLQWKHVDPHORFDWLRQDVWKHDQFKRU7KXVIURP WKHWULDOVLQZKLFKWKHLPDJHSRVLWLRQZDVSUR[LPDOWRWKHDQFKRUSRVLWLRQ7KHGLIIHUHQFHLQ GLIILFXOW\WRGLVHQJDJHZDVDOVRUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKHGLIIHUHQFHLQUHDFWLRQWLPHVRQWULDOVZHUH WKH SUREH DSSHDUV LQ WKH VDPH YHUVXV WKH RSSRVLWH SRVLWLRQ 7KH GLVHQJDJHPHQW ELDV ZLWK KLJKHU VFRUHV UHIOHFWLQJ PRUH GLIILFXOW\ WR GLVHQJDJH IURP IRRG VWLPXOL ZDV FDOFXODWHG DV IROORZV

 'LVHQJDJHPHQW ELDV  57 IRU SUREHV LQ GLIIHUHQW ORFDWLRQ DV IRRG LPDJH ± 57 IRU  SUREHV LQ VDPH ORFDWLRQ DV IRRG LPDJH  ± 57 IRU SUREHV LQ GLIIHUHQW ORFDWLRQ DV  QHXWUDOLPDJH±57IRUSUREHVLQVDPHORFDWLRQDVQHXWUDOLPDJH  3URFHGXUH 7KLVVWXG\ZDVDSSURYHGE\WKHPHGLFDOHWKLFDOFRPPLWWHHRIWKH8QLYHUVLW\0HGLFDO&HQWHU LQ*URQLQJHQWKH1HWKHUODQGV 1/ 7KHFXUUHQWVWXG\LVSDUWRIDODUJHUSURMHFW RQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKDWPLJKWSOD\DUROHLQGLVRUGHUHGHDWLQJEHKDYLRUDQGGDWDRIWKHEDVHOLQH PHDVXUHRIWKLVJURXSKDYHDOUHDG\EHHQUHSRUWHG -RQNHUHWDO  %DVHOLQH

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¶KHLJKWDQGZHLJKWZHUHPHDVXUHG        )LJXUH6WXG\GHVLJQ  ,QWDNH %0, $WWHQWLRQIRUIRRG $WWHQWLRQIRUIRRG %DVHOLQH )ROORZXS (DWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPV TXHVWLRQQDLUH (DWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPV TXHVWLRQQDLUH (DWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPV LQWHUYLHZ (DWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPV LQWHUYLHZ %0, %0,

(9)

 )ROORZXS

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¶KHLJKWDQGZHLJKWZHUHPHDVXUHG

$QDO\VHV

0LVVLQJGDWDDVVHVVPHQW

:H H[DPLQHG GLIIHUHQFHV LQ EDVHOLQH HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV %0, DQG DWWHQWLRQDO HQJDJHPHQWEHWZHHQSDUWLFLSDQWVZKRGURSSHGRXWDQGWKRVHZKRSDUWLFLSDWHGLQWKHIROORZ XSDVVHVVPHQWE\SHUIRUPLQJLQGHSHQGHQWVDPSOHVWWHVWV

&KDQJHLQV\PSWRPV%0,DQG$%

3DLUHG VDPSOHV WWHVWV ZHUH SHUIRUPHG WR H[DPLQH ZKHWKHU SDWLHQWV ZLWK $1 RQ DYHUDJH VKRZHG D GHFUHDVH LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV DQG DQ LQFUHDVH LQ %0, EHWZHHQ LQWDNH RU EDVHOLQHDQGIROORZXSDQGZKHWKHUWKH$%WRIRRGRQDYHUDJHFKDQJHGEHWZHHQEDVHOLQHDQG IROORZXS$GGLWLRQDOO\WKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHFKDQJHLQV\PSWRPVDQGFKDQJHLQ%0, ZDVDVVHVVHGZLWKELYDULDWHFRUUHODWLRQDO DQDO\VHV 1RWHWKDWDQHJDWLYHGLIIHUHQFHVFRUHVRI FKDQJH LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV PHDQV D GHFUHDVH LQ V\PSWRPV DQG WKXV DQ LPSURYHPHQW$SRVLWLYHGLIIHUHQFHVFRUHIRUFKDQJHLQ%0,PHDQVDQLQFUHDVHLQ%0,DQG WKXV DQ LPSURYHPHQW /DVW ZH WHVWHG ZKHWKHU WKH DPRXQW RI GD\V EHWZHHQ EDVHOLQH DQG IROORZXSDVVHVVPHQWVKRXOGEHLQFOXGHGDVFRYDULDWHLQWKHDQDO\VHVE\H[DPLQLQJLWVUHODWLRQ WRFKDQJHLQHDWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVDVPHDVXUHGZLWKWKHLQWHUYLHZDQGTXHVWLRQQDLUHDQG FKDQJHLQ%0, +\SRWKHVHVWHVWLQJ 7KUHHOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHVZHUHFRQGXFWHG WRWHVWZKHWKHUDUHGXFWLRQLQV\PSWRPVRI $1ZDVSDUDOOHOHGE\DQLQFUHDVHLQYLVXDODWWHQWLRQWRIRRGFXHVIURPEDVHOLQHWRRQH\HDU IROORZXS DQG ZKHWKHU UHODWLYHO\ ZHDN HQJDJHPHQW ZLWK IRRG FXHV DW EDVHOLQH ZRXOG EH UHODWHGWROHVVLPSURYHPHQWLQHDWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVDQG%0,IURPEDVHOLQHWRRQH\HDU IROORZXS

0RGHO   &KDQJH LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV DV UHSRUWHG RQ WKH LQWHUYLHZ FKDQJH  IROORZXS ± LQWDNH  ZDV HQWHUHG DV GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH DQG LQWDNH ('( VFRUH DV FRQWURO YDULDEOH LQ VWHS  %DVHOLQH $% WR IRRG ZDV HQWHUHG DV LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH LQ VWHS  DQG FKDQJHLQ$%IRUIRRGZDVDGGHGLQVWHS

0RGHO &KDQJHLQHDWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVDVUHSRUWHGRQWKHTXHVWLRQQDLUH FKDQJH  IROORZXS±EDVHOLQH ZDVHQWHUHGDVGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHDQGEDVHOLQH('(4VFRUHDVFRQWURO YDULDEOHLQVWHS%DVHOLQH$%WRIRRGZDVHQWHUHGDVLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHRILQWHUHVWLQVWHS DQGFKDQJHLQ$%WRIRRGZDVDGGHGLQVWHS

(10)



 0RGHO &KDQJHLQ%0,EHWZHHQEDVHOLQHDQGIROORZXS FKDQJH IROORZXS±EDVHOLQH 

ZDV HQWHUHG DV GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH DQG EDVHOLQH %0, VFRUH DV FRQWURO YDULDEOH LQ VWHS  %DVHOLQH$%WRIRRGZDVHQWHUHGDVLQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHRILQWHUHVWLQVWHSDQGFKDQJHLQ $%WRIRRGZDVDGGHGLQVWHS

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

)RUDOOPRGHOVWKHDVVXPSWLRQVRIWKHPXOWLSOHUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VHV ±PXOWLFROOLQHDULW\ D OLQHDUPRGHOKRPRVFHGDVWLFLW\DQGQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHUHVLGXDOV±ZHUHFKHFNHGDQG DQ\ GHYLDWLRQV IURP WKHVH DVVXPSWLRQV ZHUH UHSRUWHG 6LQFH ZH SHUIRUPHG WKUHH LQIHUHQWLDO WHVWV SHU GHSHQGHQW RXWFRPH D %RQIHUURQL+ROP FRUUHFWLRQ ZDV DSSOLHG WR FRQWURO IRU LQFUHDVHGIDPLO\ZLVHHUURUUDWH7KDWLVSHUPRGHOWKHVPDOOHVWSYDOXHZDVWHVWHGDJDLQVWDQ DOSKDRIWKHRQHIROORZLQJDJDLQVWDQGWKHODUJHVWDJDLQVW

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

WKHGDWDXQGHUWKHPRGHOLQFOXGLQJWKHYDULDEOHWKDWZDVLQFOXGHGLQWKDWVWHS HJ0RGHO VWHS  HQJDJHPHQW WR IRRG RQ WKH VKRUW LPDJH WULDOV  UHODWLYH WR WKH PRGHO ZLWKRXW WKDW YDULDEOH LHYDULDEOHVLQFOXGHGLQVWHS ,WWKXVSURYLGHVWKH%D\HVLDQHTXLYDOHQWWRWKH) FKDQJH VWDWLVWLF $ %D\HV IDFWRU RI  LV FRQVLGHUHG QR HYLGHQFH EHWZHHQ  DQHFGRWDO EHWZHHQPRGHUDWHEHWZHHQVWURQJ EHWZHHQYHU\VWURQJDQGPRUHWKDQ  H[WUHPH HYLGHQFH WKDW WKH GDWD DUH PRUH OLNHO\ XQGHU WKH PRGHO LQFOXGLQJ WKH YDULDEOH :DJHQPDNHUVHWDO $%D\HVIDFWRUEHWZHHQ±DQHFGRWDO±PRGHUDWH ±VWURQJ±YHU\VWURQJDQGOHVVWKDQH[WUHPHHYLGHQFHWKDWWKH GDWDDUHPRUHOLNHO\XQGHUWKHPRGHOQRWLQFOXGLQJWKHYDULDEOH

(11)



5HVXOWV

'DWDUHGXFWLRQ

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

0LVVLQJGDWDDVVHVVPHQW

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

(12)

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

 ,QWDNH 1   %DVHOLQH 1   )ROORZXS 1   3DLUHGVDPSOHVWWHVW

 0 6' 0 6' 0 6' W S &RKHQ¶V G Į %0,           ('(     D      ('(4E     F      (QJDJHPHQW VKRUW           (QJDJHPHQW ORQJE      G    QD  'LVHQJDJHPHQW VKRUWE      G    QD  'LVHQJDJHPHQW ORQJE      G    QD 

1RWHD%0, ZDV DYDLODEOH IRU  SDUWLFLSDQWV DW SRVWWHVWE('( DQG DWWHQWLRQDO ELDV IRU IRRG ZDV DYDLODEOH IRU 

SDUWLFLSDQWVDWSUHWHVWF('(ZDVDYDLODEOHIRUSDUWLFLSDQWVDWIROORZXSDQGGDWWHQWLRQDOELDVIRUIRRGZDVDYDLODEOH

IRUSDUWLFLSDQWVDWIROORZXS%0, $GMXVWHG%RG\0DVV,QGH[('( (DWLQJ'LVRUGHU([DPLQDWLRQLQWHUYLHZ('( 4 WRWDOVFRUHRQWKH(DWLQJ'LVRUGHU([DPLQDWLRQ4XHVWLRQQDLUH

7KHDPRXQWRIGD\VEHWZHHQEDVHOLQHDQGIROORZXSZDVQRWUHODWHGWRWKHFKDQJHLQHDWLQJ GLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVDVPHDVXUHGZLWKWKHLQWHUYLHZ U S  DVPHDVXUHGZLWKWKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH U   S    RU UHODWHG WR FKDQJH LQ %0, U   S    DQG WKHUHIRUHWKLVYDULDEOHLVQRWLQFOXGHGLQWKHDQDO\VHVDVFRYDULDWH

+\SRWKHVHVWHVWLQJ

5HJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VHV VKRZHG VWURQJ HYLGHQFH WKDW EDVHOLQH ('( VFRUHV ZHUH SUHGLFWLYH IRU FKDQJH LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV DV PHDVXUHG ZLWK WKH ('( 7DEOH  PRGHO  VWHS   3DWLHQWV ZLWK PRUH V\PSWRPV DW EDVHOLQH VKRZHG D ODUJHU LPSURYHPHQW RYHU RQH \HDU ,QWHUHVWLQJO\ EDVHOLQH ('(4 VFRUHV ZHUH QRW SUHGLFWLYH RI FKDQJH LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPVDVPHDVXUHGZLWKWKH('(4QRUZDVEDVHOLQH%0,SUHGLFWLYHRIFKDQJHLQ%0, 7DEOHPRGHODQGVWHS 

,VDUHGXFWLRQLQV\PSWRPVRI$1SDUDOOHOHGE\DQLQFUHDVHLQYLVXDODWWHQWLRQWRIRRGFXHV IURPEDVHOLQHWRRQH\HDUIROORZXS"

&KDQJH LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV DV PHDVXUHG ZLWK WKH ('( RU ('(4 DQG FKDQJH LQ %0, ZHUH QRW SDUDOOHOHG E\ D FKDQJH LQ DWWHQWLRQDO HQJDJHPHQW ZLWK IRRG FXHV 7DEOH  PRGHOVWHS 

(13)



,V UHODWLYHO\ ZHDN DWWHQWLRQDO HQJDJHPHQW ZLWK IRRG FXHV DW EDVHOLQH UHODWHG WR OHVV LPSURYHPHQWLQHDWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVDQG%0,IURPEDVHOLQHWRRQH\HDUIROORZXS" %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQWELDVIRUIRRGZDVQRWSUHGLFWLYHRIFKDQJHLQHDWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPV DVPHDVXUHGZLWKWKH('(RU('(4QRUZDVLWSUHGLFWLYHRIFKDQJHLQ%0, 7DEOHPRGHO VWHS  7DEOH5HJUHVVLRQPRGHOVRIFRPSOHWHVDPSOH 0RGHO 'HSHQGHQW 6WHS ,QGHSHQGHQW ȕ 7 5 ) FKDQJH S )  Į %)  &KDQJHLQ ('(  %DVHOLQH('(          %DVHOLQH('(         %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW    %DVHOLQH('(         %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW   &KDQJHLQHQJDJHPHQW    &KDQJHLQ ('(4  %DVHOLQH('(4         %DVHOLQH('(4        %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW    %DVHOLQH('(4        %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW   &KDQJHLQHQJDJHPHQW    &KDQJHLQ %0,  %DVHOLQH%0,         %DVHOLQH%0,        %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW    %DVHOLQH%0,        %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW   &KDQJHLQHQJDJHPHQW  

1RWH SQ0RGHO Q0RGHO Q0RGHO 1HJDWLYHFKDQJHLQ('(DQG('(4V\PSWRPVPHDQV

DQLPSURYHPHQW3RVLWLYHFKDQJHLQ%0,PHDQVDQLPSURYHPHQW

3RVWKRFDQDO\VHV

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

7RH[DPLQHWKHVSHFLILFLW\RIWKHILQGLQJWKDWDWWHQWLRQDOHQJDJHPHQWZLWKIRRGFXHVRQWKH VKRUWWULDOVZDVSUHGLFWLYHIRUFKDQJHLQHDWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVDVPHDVXUHGZLWKWKH('(

(14)

  ZHSHUIRUPHGDIROORZXSDQDO\VLVLQZKLFKZHH[DPLQHGZKHWKHUZHZRXOGILQGWKHVDPH SUHGLFWLYHYDOLGLW\IRUWKHRWKHUWKUHHDWWHQWLRQDOELDVPHDVXUHVLQSUHGLFWLQJFKDQJHLQHDWLQJ GLVRUGHUV\PSWRPV$WWHQWLRQDOHQJDJHPHQWIRUIRRGRQWKHORQJLPDJHWLPHWULDOV ȕ W S %)  DQGGLVHQJDJHPHQWIURPIRRGRQWKHVKRUW ȕ W  S %)  DQGORQJLPDJHWLPHWULDOV ȕ W S %)  

DOO IDLOHG WR VLJQLILFDQWO\ SUHGLFW FKDQJH LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV DV PHDVXUHG ZLWK WKH LQWHUYLHZ 7DEOH5HJUHVVLRQPRGHOVRISDWLHQWVZKRZHUHXQGHUZHLJKWDWLQWDNH 0RGHO 'HSHQGHQW 6WHS ,QGHSHQGHQW ȕ 7 5 ) FKDQJH S )  Į %)  &KDQJHLQ ('(  %DVHOLQH('(          %DVHOLQH('(         %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW    %DVHOLQH('(         %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW    &KDQJHLQHQJDJHPHQW    &KDQJHLQ ('(4  %DVHOLQH('(4          %DVHOLQH('(4         %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW    %DVHOLQH('(4         %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW    &KDQJHLQHQJDJHPHQW    &KDQJHLQ %0,  %DVHOLQH%0,         %DVHOLQH%0,        %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW    %DVHOLQH%0,        %DVHOLQHHQJDJHPHQW   &KDQJHLQHQJDJHPHQW  

1RWH S SQ0RGHO Q0RGHO Q0RGHO 1HJDWLYHFKDQJHLQ('(DQG('(4V\PSWRPVPHDQV

DQLPSURYHPHQW3RVLWLYHFKDQJHLQ%0,PHDQVDQLPSURYHPHQW

'LVFXVVLRQ

7KHPDMRUILQGLQJVRIWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\FDQEHVXPPDUL]HGDVIROORZV  SDWLHQWVZLWK$1 VKRZHGRQDYHUDJHDQLPSURYHPHQWLQHDWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVDQG%0,DIWHURQH\HDUEXW DWWHQWLRQDOHQJDJHPHQWZLWKIRRGFXHVGLGQRWFKDQJHGXULQJWKLVSHULRG  FKDQJHLQHDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV ZDV QRW UHODWHG WR FKDQJH LQ DWWHQWLRQDO HQJDJHPHQW ZLWK IRRG FXHV   DWWHQWLRQDO HQJDJHPHQW ZLWK IRRG FXHV DW EDVHOLQH ZDV QRW UHODWHG WR WKH FKDQJH LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVRU%0,RYHUWKHFRXUVHRID\HDU

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

(15)



SDWLHQWV ZLWK $1 DV ZHOO DV IRU WKH VXEVDPSOH FRPSULVLQJ RI RQO\ SDWLHQWV ZKR ZHUH XQGHUZHLJKWDWEDVHOLQH,QVXPWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\GRHVQRWVXSSRUWWKHLGHDWKDWLPSURYHPHQW RI$1V\PSWRPVDQG%0,LVUHODWHGWRWKHQRUPDOL]DWLRQRIDWWHQWLRQDOHQJDJHPHQWZLWKIRRG FXHV

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|UFN %LUJHJDUG  &OLQWRQ  /OR\G  6WHLQJODVV   $V LW LV H[SHFWHG WKDW DWWHQWLRQDO HQJDJHPHQW ZLWK IRRG FXHV LV UHODWHG WR SDWLHQWV¶ HDWLQJ EHKDYLRU WKLV ZRXOG H[SODLQ ZK\ QR FKDQJHV ZHUH IRXQG ,W PD\ EH WKDW DQ XQFKDQJHG  ODFN RI DWWHQWLRQDO HQJDJHPHQW LQFUHDVHV SDWLHQWV¶ ULVN IRU UHODSVH DIWHU WUHDWPHQW 7KH FXUUHQW VWXG\ ZDV QRW HTXLSSHG WR H[DPLQH WKLV EHFDXVH ZH RQO\ DVVHVVHG LQGLYLGXDOV DW WZR WLPH SRLQWV )XWXUH VWXGLHV VKRXOG H[SORUH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW GHFUHDVHG DWWHQWLRQDO HQJDJHPHQW ZLWK IRRG FXHV PLJKWEHDULVNIDFWRUIRUUHODSVHLQSDWLHQWVZLWK$1

7KHSUHVHQWVWXG\KDVVHYHUDOVWUHQJWKV,PSRUWDQWO\DODUJHQXPEHURISDWLHQWVZLWK$1 ZDV LQFOXGHG DQG D SURVSHFWLYH DSSURDFK ZDV WDNHQ WR H[DPLQH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ DWWHQWLRQ ZLWK IRRG DQG HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV )XUWKHUPRUH ZH XVHG D WDVN WKDW ZDV GHVLJQHGWRGLIIHUHQWLDWHEHWZHHQDWWHQWLRQDOHQJDJHPHQWDQGDWWHQWLRQDOGLVHQJDJHPHQW/DVW FKDQJH LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV ZDV DVVHVVHG QRW RQO\ ZLWK D VHOIUHSRUW TXHVWLRQQDLUH EXW DOVR ZLWK DQ LQWHUYLHZ $OWKRXJK ERWK PHDVXUHV VKRZHG D VWURQJ LPSURYHPHQW LQ

(16)



 V\PSWRPVFKDQJHLQ%0,ZDVRQO\UHODWHGWRFKDQJHLQHDWLQJGLVRUGHUV\PSWRPVUHSRUWHGLQ

WKH LQWHUYLHZ 2QH UHDVRQ IRU WKH GLVFUHSDQW ILQGLQJV LV WKDW SDWLHQWV PD\ QRW DOZD\V KDYH JRRGLQVLJKWLQWRWKHLURZQLPSURYHPHQW)RUH[DPSOHLWPLJKWEHWKDWSDWLHQWVUHSRUWGRLQJ ZHOOEHFDXVHFRPSDUHGWRD\HDUEHIRUHWKH\FRQVLGHUWKHPVHOYHVWREHVXEVWDQWLDOO\LPSURYHG EXW WKDW FRPSDUHG WR DGROHVFHQWV ZLWKRXW DQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU WKH\ VWLOO PLJKW VKRZ D FRQVLGHUDEOHDPRXQWRIV\PSWRPV

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¶ ULVN IRU UHODSVH

(17)



$SSHQGL[

7DEOH$0HDQUHDFWLRQWLPHVIRUDOOWULDOW\SHVRQSUHDQGSRVWWHVW    3UHWHVW 3RVWWHVW    0 6' 0 6' ,PDJH7LPH ,PDJH3RVLWLRQ 3UREH,PDJH3RV )RRG  'LVWDO 6DPH       'LIIHUHQW      3UR[LPDO 6DPH       'LIIHUHQW      'LVWDO 6DPH       'LIIHUHQW      3UR[LPDO 6DPH       'LIIHUHQW     ,PDJH7LPH ,PDJH3RVLWLRQ 3UREH,PDJH3RV 1HXWUDO  'LVWDO 6DPH       'LIIHUHQW      3UR[LPDO 6DPH       'LIIHUHQW      'LVWDO 6DPH       'LIIHUHQW      3UR[LPDO 6DPH       'LIIHUHQW     1RWH1   

(18)



(19)



Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

,QVXPPDU\WKH%,77SURYHGWREHHIIHFWLYHLQFKDQJLQJ$%WRIRRGFXHVLQXQVXFFHVVIXO GLHWHUV 0RUHRYHU WKH UHGXFWLRQ LQ $% WR IRRG FXHV H[KLELWHG E\ WKRVH

5HJDUGOHVV RI ZKHWKHU FKDQJHV LQ HDWLQJ GLVRUGHU V\PSWRPV GHSHQG RQ FKDQJHV LQ SXQLVKPHQW VHQVLWLYLW\ WKH UREXVW ILQGLQJ WKDW SDWLHQWV ZLWK DQRUH[LD QHUYRVD

(U ZHUG JHHQ YHUVFKLO JHYRQGHQ LQ EHORQLQJVUHVSRQVLYLWHLW PRWLYDWLH YRRU EHORQLQJ HQ DDQGDFKW YRRU VLJQDOHQ YDQ EHORQLQJ 'H]H EHYLQGLQJHQ ODWHQ ]LHQ

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright

,QGHDIJHORSHQMDUHQKHELNYHHOJHOHHUGYHHOJHZHOGLJHPHQVHQOHUHQNHQQHQHQKHHOYHHO PRRLH HUYDULQJHQ RSJHGDDQ +RHZHO QLHW DOWLMG DOOHV HYHQ PDNNHOLMN LV JHJDDQ

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright

Other than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright

7KH DLP RI WKLV VWXG\ ZDV WR HQKDQFH LQVLJKW LQWR WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV XQGHUO\LQJ WKH GHYHORSPHQW DQG PDLQWHQDQFH RI RYHUZHLJKW DQG REHVLW\ ,W ZDV IRXQG