Appendix 1: Afname per doelkwaliteit (ton / 2 wkn, 2005 – 2006)

Inhoud appendix

Appendix 1: Afname per doelkwaliteit (ton / 2 wkn, 2005 – 2006)...2

Appendix 2: Afname patroon per doelkwaliteit: ton / 2 wkn (2005 -2006)...3

Appendix 3: Chi square test voor MTS groepen...8

Doelkwaliteit B (Bavaria) ...8

Doelkwaliteit B (alleen MTS) ...10

Doelkwaliteit C (alleen MTS)...13

Doelkwaliteit E (alleen MTS) ...15

Doelkwaliteit H (alleen MTS)...17

Doelkwaliteit G (alleen MTS)...20

Appendix 4: Normaal verdeling...22

Appendix 1: Afname per doelkwaliteit (ton / 2 wkn, 2005 – 2006)

Appendix 2: Afname patroon per doelkwaliteit: ton / 2 wkn (2005 -2006)

Doelkwaliteit: Bavaria Zomer

y = -11,233x + 1173,1

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

0

10

20

30

40

50

week (x2)

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n

n

en

Bavaria Zomer: DK B

Lineair (Bavaria Zomer: DK

B)

Doelkwaliteit: SAB

SAB: DK E

Lineair (SAB: DK E)

Doelkwaliteit: Bavaria Private label

Bavaria Private Label: DK G Lineair (Bavaria Private Label: DK G)

Doelkwaliteit: Bavaria winter

y = -15,888x + 969,12 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 0 10 20 30 40 50 week (x2)

to

n

n

en

Bavaria winter: DK H

Lineair (Bavaria winter: DK

H)

Doelkwaliteit Asahi

y = -3,7464x + 552,92

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

10

20

30

40

50

week (x2)

to

nn

en

Asahi: DK A

Lineair (Asahi: DK A)

Doelkwaliteit Becks

y = -4,3862x + 530,74

0

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1000

1200

1400

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1800

2000

0

10

20

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40

50

week (x2)

to

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n

en

Becks: DK C

Lineair (Becks: DK C)

Doelkwaliteit: Carlsberg zomer

y = -24,252x + 1239,4

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0

10

20

30

40

50

week (x2)

to

n

n

en

Carlsberg zomer: DK Dz

Lineair (Carlsberg zomer: DK

Dz)

Doelkwaliteit Carlsberg winter

y = -2,3245x + 249

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

10

20

30

40

50

week (x2)

to

n

n

en

Carlberg winter: DK Dw

Lineair (Carlberg winter:

DK Dw)

Appendix 2:

Berekenen van â en b :

(

1

)

/

12

2

1

ˆ

−

+

−

⋅

=

n

n

s

n

s

t

b

Met:

bˆ = helling van de trendlijn [tonnen / 2 weken]

t = tijdstip

st = werkelijke verkoop tijdens periode t [tonnen]

n = aantal maanden waar het om gaat: 24

(

1

)

/

2

ˆ

ˆ

=

−

b

n

+

n

s

a

Met:

bˆ = helling van de trendlijn [tonnen / 2 weken]

aˆ

= gemodelleerde waarde van de afzet in periode 0 [tonnen]

st = werkelijke waarde van de afzet tijdens periode t [tonnen]

n = aantal maanden waar het om gaat: 24

Appendix 3: Chi square test voor MTS groepen

DK B: 2005 & 2006

DK B: 2006

DK C: 2006

DK E: 2006

DK H: 2005 & 2006

DK G: 2006

Doelkwaliteit B (Bavaria)

Afzet DK B exclusief afzet MTO klanten en exclusief afzet Bavaria zomer (flywheel)

Data: 2005 en 2006, geclusterd per 2 weken.

Uncensored Data - Col_1

52 values ranging from 0,0 to 1659,72 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 467,915

standard deviation = 423,692

The StatAdvisor ---

This analysis shows the results of fitting a normal distribution to the data on Col_1. The estimated parameters of the fitted

distribution are shown above. You can test whether the normal distribution fits the data adequately by selecting Goodness-of-Fit Tests from the list of Tabular Options. You can also assess visually how well the normal distribution fits by selecting Frequency Histogram from the list of Graphical Options. Other options within the

procedure allow you to compute and display tail areas and critical values for the distribution. To select a different distribution, press the alternate mouse button and select Analysis Options.

Density Trace for Col_1

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Col_1

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_1

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 15,5924 7 7,43 0,02 15,5924 228,126 12 7,43 2,81 228,126 391,644 7 7,43 0,02 391,644 544,185 5 7,43 0,79 544,185 707,703 9 7,43 0,33 707,703 920,237 7 7,43 0,02 above 920,237 5 7,43 0,79 --- Chi-Square = 4,80792 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 0,30758

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,0903554 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,134715 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,134715 Approximate P-Value = 0,303456

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

The StatAdvisor ---

This pane shows the results of tests run to determine whether Col_1 can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution. The chi-square test divides the range of Col_1 into nonoverlapping intervals and compares the number of observations in each class to the number expected based on the fitted distribution. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test computes the maximum distance between the cumulative distribution of Col_1 and the CDF of the fitted normal distribution. In this case, the maximum distance is 0,134715. The other EDF statistics compare the empirical distribution function to the fitted CDF in different ways.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_1 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_1

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Col_1

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Doelkwaliteit B (alleen MTS)

Afzet DK B exclusief afzet MTO klanten en exclusief afzet Bavaria zomer (flywheel)

Data: 2006, geclusterd per 2 weken.

Uncensored Data - Col_2

Data variable: Col_2

26 values ranging from 0,0 to 1659,72 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 445,449

standard deviation = 380,191

The StatAdvisor ---

This analysis shows the results of fitting a normal distribution to the data on Col_2. The estimated parameters of the fitted

distribution are shown above. You can test whether the normal distribution fits the data adequately by selecting Goodness-of-Fit Tests from the list of Tabular Options. You can also assess visually how well the normal distribution fits by selecting Frequency Histogram from the list of Graphical Options. Other options within the

procedure allow you to compute and display tail areas and critical values for the distribution. To select a different distribution, press the alternate mouse button and select Analysis Options.

Density Trace for Col_2

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Col_2

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_2

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 77,643 7 4,33 1,64 77,643 281,69 2 4,33 1,26 281,69 445,449 3 4,33 0,41 445,449 609,209 5 4,33 0,10 609,209 813,255 6 4,33 0,64 above 813,255 3 4,33 0,41 --- Chi-Square = 4,46159 with 3 d.f. P-Value = 0,215739

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,124074 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,120669 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,124074 Approximate P-Value = 0,818322

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

The StatAdvisor ---

This pane shows the results of tests run to determine whether Col_2 can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution. The chi-square test divides the range of Col_2 into nonoverlapping intervals and compares the number of observations in each class to the number expected based on the fitted distribution. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test computes the maximum distance between the cumulative distribution of Col_2 and the CDF of the fitted normal distribution. In this case, the maximum distance is 0,124074. The other EDF statistics compare the empirical distribution function to the fitted CDF in different ways.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_2 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_2

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Col_2

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Doelkwaliteit C (alleen MTS)

Afzet DK C exclusief afzet MTO klanten

Data: 2006, geclusterd per 2 weken.

Uncensored Data - Col_3

Data variable: Col_3

26 values ranging from 0,0 to 802,2 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 272,697

standard deviation = 250,874

The StatAdvisor ---

This analysis shows the results of fitting a normal distribution to the data on Col_3. The estimated parameters of the fitted

distribution are shown above. You can test whether the normal distribution fits the data adequately by selecting Goodness-of-Fit Tests from the list of Tabular Options. You can also assess visually how well the normal distribution fits by selecting Frequency Histogram from the list of Graphical Options. Other options within the

procedure allow you to compute and display tail areas and critical values for the distribution. To select a different distribution, press the alternate mouse button and select Analysis Options.

Density Trace for Col_3

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Col_3

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_3

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square ---

at or below 29,9959 9 4,33 5,03 29,9959 164,638 3 4,33 0,41 164,638 272,697 0 4,33 4,33 272,697 380,755 4 4,33 0,03 380,755 515,398 5 4,33 0,10 above 515,398 5 4,33 0,10 --- Chi-Square = 10,0002 with 3 d.f. P-Value = 0,0185638

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,207634 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,13852 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,207634 Approximate P-Value = 0,212659

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

The StatAdvisor ---

This pane shows the results of tests run to determine whether Col_3 can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution. The chi-square test divides the range of Col_3 into nonoverlapping intervals and compares the number of observations in each class to the number expected based on the fitted distribution. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test computes the maximum distance between the cumulative distribution of Col_3 and the CDF of the fitted normal distribution. In this case, the maximum distance is 0,207634. The other EDF statistics compare the empirical distribution function to the fitted CDF in different ways.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is less than 0.05, we can reject the idea that Col_3 comes from a normal

distribution with 95% confidence.

Histogram for Col_3

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Col_3

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Doelkwaliteit E (alleen MTS)

Data 2006, geclusterd per 2 weken

Uncensored Data - Col_2

Analysis Summary Data variable: Col_2

26 values ranging from 0,0 to 831,82 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 375,058

standard deviation = 280,821

The StatAdvisor ---

This analysis shows the results of fitting a normal distribution to the data on Col_2. The estimated parameters of the fitted

distribution are shown above. You can test whether the normal distribution fits the data adequately by selecting Goodness-of-Fit Tests from the list of Tabular Options. You can also assess visually how well the normal distribution fits by selecting Frequency Histogram from the list of Graphical Options. Other options within the

procedure allow you to compute and display tail areas and critical values for the distribution. To select a different distribution, press the alternate mouse button and select Analysis Options.

Density Trace for Col_2

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1000

Col_2

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_2

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 103,386 6 4,33 0,64

103,386 254,101 3 4,33 0,41 254,101 375,058 4 4,33 0,03 375,058 496,016 2 4,33 1,26 496,016 646,731 5 4,33 0,10 above 646,731 6 4,33 0,64 --- Chi-Square = 3,07704 with 3 d.f. P-Value = 0,379895

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,139926 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,118235 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,139926 Approximate P-Value = 0,688682

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

The StatAdvisor ---

This pane shows the results of tests run to determine whether Col_2 can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution. The chi-square test divides the range of Col_2 into nonoverlapping intervals and compares the number of observations in each class to the number expected based on the fitted distribution. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test computes the maximum distance between the cumulative distribution of Col_2 and the CDF of the fitted normal distribution. In this case, the maximum distance is 0,139926. The other EDF statistics compare the empirical distribution function to the fitted CDF in different ways.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_2 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_2

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Doelkwaliteit H (alleen MTS)

Data 2005 en 2006, Alleen afname MTS klanten, zonder 0- waarden gedurende juni t/m oktober

2006. De 0- waarden geven vertekend beeld, zie onderstaande figuur: Bavaria winter met

forecasts

Uncensored Data - Col_2

Data variable: Col_2

32 values ranging from 88,28 to 1194,27 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 623,109

standard deviation = 304,692

The StatAdvisor ---

This analysis shows the results of fitting a normal distribution to the data on Col_2. The estimated parameters of the fitted

distribution are shown above. You can test whether the normal distribution fits the data adequately by selecting Goodness-of-Fit Tests from the list of Tabular Options. You can also assess visually how well the normal distribution fits by selecting Frequency Histogram from the list of Graphical Options. Other options within the

procedure allow you to compute and display tail areas and critical values for the distribution. To select a different distribution, press the alternate mouse button and select Analysis Options.

Density Trace for Col_2

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Col_2

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_2

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 297,828 6 4,57 0,45 297,828 450,668 4 4,57 0,07 450,668 568,26 4 4,57 0,07 568,26 677,958 5 4,57 0,04 677,958 795,549 1 4,57 2,79 795,549 948,39 8 4,57 2,57 above 948,39 4 4,57 0,07 --- Chi-Square = 6,0625 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 0,194529

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,101135 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,114266 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,114266 Approximate P-Value = 0,797585

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

The StatAdvisor ---

This pane shows the results of tests run to determine whether Col_2 can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution. The chi-square test divides the range of Col_2 into nonoverlapping intervals and compares the number of observations in each class to the number expected based on the fitted distribution. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test computes the maximum distance between the cumulative distribution of Col_2 and the CDF of the fitted normal distribution. In this case, the maximum distance is 0,114266. The other EDF statistics compare the empirical distribution function to the fitted CDF in different ways.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_2 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_2

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Col_2

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Informatie punten per twee weken geclusterd. Dus punt 0 t/m punt 52, data 2005 – 2006. Vanaf

punt 52: forecasts voor afname van MTS afnemers

Bavaria w inter met Forecasts

y = -7,1895x + 754,83 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 week (x2) T o nn en Bavaria w inter: DK H Lineair (Bavaria w inter: DK H)

Doelkwaliteit G (alleen MTS)

Data variable: Col_6

24 values ranging from 604,453 to 1503,54 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 919,147

standard deviation = 356,803

Density Trace for Col_6

Col_6

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_6

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 761,169 4 4,00 0,00 761,169 891,303 6 4,00 1,00 891,303 995,743 5 4,00 0,25 995,743 1100,18 2 4,00 1,00 1100,18 1230,32 2 4,00 1,00 above 1230,32 5 4,00 0,25 --- Chi-Square = 3,50004 with 3 d.f. P-Value = 0,320753

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,149079 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,0786924 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,149079

Approximate P-Value = 0,660324

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- Kolmogorov-Smirnov D 0,149079 0,754708 >=0.10* Anderson-Darling A^2 0,361291 0,373992 0,4166* --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative. Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_6 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_6

Col_6

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Appendix 5: Chi square test – Iedere productgroep (doelkwaliteit)

Deze data is gebaseerd op de uitlevering van mout in 2005/2006, gegroepeerd per 2 weken.

Vijf van de acht productgroepen zijn normaal verdeeld ofwel daar kan niet worden gezegd dat ze

niet normaal verdeeld zijn. = DK: Bavaria Zomer, SAB en Bavaria Private Label, Carlsberg

winter en Bavaria winter. Waarbij private label pas vanaf 2006 werd uitgeleverd (Eerste keer dat

men met Escourgeons ging werken)

Bavaria Zomer: DK B (excl afnemer Bavaria zomermout)

Analysis Summary Data variable: Col_1

52 values ranging from 0,0 to 1982,19 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 875,425

standard deviation = 542,843

The StatAdvisor ---

This analysis shows the results of fitting a normal distribution to the data on Col_1. The estimated parameters of the fitted

distribution are shown above. You can test whether the normal distribution fits the data adequately by selecting Goodness-of-Fit Tests from the list of Tabular Options. You can also assess visually how well the normal distribution fits by selecting Frequency Histogram from the list of Graphical Options. Other options within the

procedure allow you to compute and display tail areas and critical values for the distribution. To select a different distribution, press the alternate mouse button and select Analysis Options.

Density Trace for Col_1

Col_1

de

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ity

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0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

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(X 0,0001)

Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_1

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 295,901 9 7,43 0,33 295,901 568,203 7 7,43 0,02 568,203 777,706 9 7,43 0,33 777,706 973,145 5 7,43 0,79 973,145 1182,65 8 7,43 0,04 1182,65 1454,95 3 7,43 2,64 above 1454,95 11 7,43 1,72 --- Chi-Square = 5,88486 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 0,207913

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,0839192 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,0850806 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,0850806 Approximate P-Value = 0,845884

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- Kolmogorov-Smirnov D 0,0850806 0,622703 >=0.10* Anderson-Darling A^2 0,532506 0,54063 0,1655* --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

The StatAdvisor ---

This pane shows the results of tests run to determine whether Col_1 can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution. The chi-square test divides the range of Col_1 into nonoverlapping intervals and compares the number of observations in each class to the number expected based on the fitted distribution. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test computes the maximum distance between the cumulative distribution of Col_1 and the CDF of the fitted normal distribution. In this case, the maximum distance is 0,0850806. The other EDF statistics compare the empirical distribution function to the fitted CDF in different ways.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_1 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_1

Col_1

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Asahi: DK A

Analysis Summary Data variable: Col_2

52 values ranging from 0,0 to 1499,3 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 453,638

standard deviation = 373,385

Density Trace for Col_2

Col_2

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_2

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 55,0219 14 7,43 5,81 55,0219 242,32 0 7,43 7,43 242,32 386,423 10 7,43 0,89 386,423 520,853 6 7,43 0,27 520,853 664,956 9 7,43 0,33 664,956 852,254 7 7,43 0,02 above 852,254 6 7,43 0,27 --- Chi-Square = 15,0387 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 0,00462162

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,157035 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,112195 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,157035 Approximate P-Value = 0,153928

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative. Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is less than

0.01, we can reject the idea that Col_2 comes from a normal

distribution with 99% confidence.

Histogram for Col_2

Col_2

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Becks: DK C

52 values ranging from 0,0 to 1838,83 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 414,504

standard deviation = 442,223

Density Trace for Col_3

Col_3

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Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below -57,602 0 7,43 7,43 -57,602 164,227 22 7,43 28,58 164,227 334,897 6 7,43 0,27 334,897 494,11 6 7,43 0,27 494,11 664,78 4 7,43 1,58 664,78 886,609 8 7,43 0,04 above 886,609 6 7,43 0,27 --- Chi-Square = 38,4619 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 8,99737E-8

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,186905 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,174297 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,186905 Approximate P-Value = 0,0528693

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is less than 0.01, we can reject the idea that Col_3 comes from a normal

distribution with 99% confidence.

Histogram for Col_3

Col_3

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Carlsberg zomer: DK Dz

Analysis Summary Data variable: Col_4

52 values ranging from 0,0 to 2465,34 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 597,089

standard deviation = 595,254

Density Trace for Col_4

Col_4

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_4

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below -38,3884 0 7,43 7,43 -38,3884 260,204 18 7,43 15,04 260,204 489,935 11 7,43 1,72 489,935 704,243 5 7,43 0,79 704,243 933,974 5 7,43 0,79 933,974 1232,57 8 7,43 0,04 above 1232,57 5 7,43 0,79 --- Chi-Square = 26,6157 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 0,0000237705

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,156257 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,15791 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,15791 Approximate P-Value = 0,149578

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- Kolmogorov-Smirnov D 0,15791 1,15574 <0.01*

Anderson-Darling A^2 2,37563 2,41187 0,0000* --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is less than 0.01, we can reject the idea that Col_4 comes from a normal

distribution with 99% confidence.

Histogram for Col_4

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SAB: DK E

52 values ranging from 0,0 to 1315,96 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 517,786

standard deviation = 343,166

Density Trace for Col_5

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_5

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 151,432 12 7,43 2,81 151,432 323,571 3 7,43 2,64 323,571 456,012 5 7,43 0,79 456,012 579,561 10 7,43 0,89 579,561 712,002 7 7,43 0,02 712,002 884,141 8 7,43 0,04 above 884,141 7 7,43 0,02 --- Chi-Square = 7,23054 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 0,124195

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,105617 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,0852183 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,105617

Approximate P-Value = 0,607651

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- Kolmogorov-Smirnov D 0,105617 0,773009 >=0.10* Anderson-Darling A^2 0,547194 0,555541 0,1518* --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_5 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_5

Col_5

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Bavaria winter: DK H

Analysis Summary Data variable: Col_7

52 values ranging from 0,0 to 1281,27 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 512,111

standard deviation = 391,711

Density Trace for Col_7

Col_7

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_7

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 93,9314 12 7,43 2,81 93,9314 290,422 6 7,43 0,27 290,422 441,598 6 7,43 0,27 441,598 582,625 6 7,43 0,27 582,625 733,801 6 7,43 0,27 733,801 930,291 5 7,43 0,79 above 930,291 11 7,43 1,72 --- Chi-Square = 6,42327 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 0,169689

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,115995 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,0955431 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,115995

Approximate P-Value = 0,497238

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values

specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative. Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_7 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_7

Col_7

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Carlberg winter: DK Dw

Analysis Summary Data variable: Col_8

52 values ranging from 0,0 to 521,88 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 187,398

standard deviation = 148,117

Density Trace for Col_8

Col_8

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_8

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 29,2718 10 7,43 0,89 29,2718 103,571 7 7,43 0,02 103,571 160,735 10 7,43 0,89 160,735 214,061 2 7,43 3,97 214,061 271,225 8 7,43 0,04 271,225 345,524 8 7,43 0,04 above 345,524 7 7,43 0,02 --- Chi-Square = 5,88499 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 0,207903

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,131484 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,1029 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,131484 Approximate P-Value = 0,332029

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative. Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_8 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Carlsberg zomer 2006

= weer groep Dz, dit keer zonder 2005 data.

Analysis Summary Data variable: Col_9

26 values ranging from 0,0 to 1051,82 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 361,197

standard deviation = 363,211

Density Trace for Col_9

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_9

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 9,81763 6 4,33 0,64 9,81763 204,751 5 4,33 0,10 204,751 361,197 6 4,33 0,64 361,197 517,643 2 4,33 1,26 517,643 712,576 2 4,33 1,26 above 712,576 5 4,33 0,10 --- Chi-Square = 4,00002 with 3 d.f. P-Value = 0,261458

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DPLUS = 0,172928 Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,16 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,172928 Approximate P-Value = 0,424361

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative.

Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_9 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_9

Col_9

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Bavaria winter: Doelkwaliteit H

Goodness of fit test bij Bavaria winter afzet 2005-2006 exclusief de cijfers uit: juni, juli,

augustus, september en oktober 2006. Reden: afzet was nul in die maanden.

Deze 0-afzet geeft geen goed beeld van de toekomst. Er is gekeken naar de forecasts voor

het jaar 2007. Niet iedere afnemer uit de doelkwaliteit heeft reeds tijden en kwantiteiten

doorgegeven, maar met de informatie die tot op heden (maart 2007) beschikbaar is bij CS

weet men al dat de afname van DK H gaat toenemen t.o.v. 2006 en op zeer continue basis.

(Bavaria zelf gaat een groot deel van de winter mout afnemen)

Zie ook grafiek: Bavaria winter met forecasts (file “DeData”)

Data variable: Col_1

42 values ranging from 0,0 to 1281,27 Fitted normal distribution:

mean = 634,043

standard deviation = 334,165

Density Trace for Col_1

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Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Col_1

Chi-Square Test

--- Lower Upper Observed Expected

Limit Limit Frequency Frequency Chi-Square --- at or below 277,298 6 6,00 0,00 277,298 444,922 8 6,00 0,67 444,922 573,888 5 6,00 0,17 573,888 694,197 5 6,00 0,17 694,197 823,163 5 6,00 0,17 823,163 990,788 6 6,00 0,00 above 990,788 7 6,00 0,17 --- Chi-Square = 1,33344 with 4 d.f. P-Value = 0,855677

Estimated Kolmogorov statistic DMINUS = 0,0851828 Estimated overall statistic DN = 0,0867234 Approximate P-Value = 0,910226

EDF Statistic Value Modified Form P-Value --- Kolmogorov-Smirnov D 0,0867234 0,572539 >=0.10* Anderson-Darling A^2 0,457564 0,466318 0,2521* --- *Indicates that the P-Value has been compared to tables of critical values specially constructed for fitting the currently selected distribution. Other P-values are based on general tables and may be very conservative. Since the smallest P-value amongst the tests performed is greater than or equal to 0.10, we can not reject the idea that Col_1 comes from a normal distribution with 90% or higher confidence.

Histogram for Col_1

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