OPTA analyst meeting
January 23, 2008
Programme
• 13.00 The main developments on the electronic communications and postal markets, by
–Johan Keetelaar and Christa Cramer (electronic communications)
–Symen Formsma (postal affairs)
• Questions (also through internet)
• 14.00 End of meeting
Market developments
• Convergence
• Bundling
• Recommendation
• Market analyses
Increase in bundles
• Triple play: mostly cable
• Dual play fixed+bb: DSL
0 1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 6.000.000
Q 10 5 Q 20 5
Q 30 5 Q 40 5
Q 10 6 Q 20 6
Q 30 6 Q 40 6
Q 10 7 Q 20 7
Q 30 7
PSTN/ISDN W LR
Digital Telephony Total telephony
Q3 2007, Telecompaper
Increase digital telephony
• 42% of consumer telephony now digital
• Over 5% fixed consumer telephony WLR within one year
• 17.7% mobile only households
Q3 2007, Telecompaper Q307
47%
21%
26%
6%
KPN Vodafone
T-Mobile (incl. Orange) SP's , MVNO's
Q306
49%
22%
14%
11% 4%
KPN
V odaf one
T-Mobile (incl.
Orange) Orange
SP's, MV NO's
• Merger T-Mobile/Orange
• Growth of service providers
• Postpaid 47%, up from 44% Q306
• Over 18.9 mln customers
Mobile retail market shares
Broadcast retail market shares
44%
30%
2%
2%
3%
11%
6% 2% Zes ko (@Hom e, Cas em a,
Multikabel) (cable) UPC (cable)
Delta (cable)
CAIW (cable)
Other cable
Canal Digitaal (s atellite)
KPN (m os tly DVB-T, s om e IPTV)
Tele2 (IPTV)
Q3 2007, Telecompaper
• 81% cable, compared to 87% in Q306
Steady growth of digital TV
• From 29% Q306 to 38% Q307 (of all RTV subscriptions)
• Digital cable includes analogue signal
• Increased uptake of terrestrial
Q3 2007, Telecompaper 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q 40 3 Q 10 4
Q 20 4 Q 30 4
Q 40 4 Q 10 5
Q 20 5 Q 30 5
Q 40 5 Q 10 6
Q 20 6 Q 30 6
Q 40 6 Q 10 7
Q 20 7
Q 30 7
Cable Satellite (Dutch) Terrestial IPTV Total digital TV
12%
11%
10%
5%
6%
5% 8%
12%
7%
3%
12%
1%
8%
Het Net (KPN, DSL) Planet Internet (KPN, DSL) Direct ADSL (KPN, DSL) XS4ALL (KPN, DSL) Overig (KPN, DSL) Orange Breedband (DSL) Tele2Versatel (DSL)
@Home (Zesko, cable) Casema (Zesko, cable) Multikabel (Zesko, cable) UPC (cable)
Zeelandnet (cable) Other (cable+DSL)
Broadband retail market shares
• KPN (incl. Tiscali) 44% in Q307, compared to 40% in Q306
Q3 2007, Telecompaper
Broadband development
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
March 2002 June 2002 September 2002 December 2002 March 2003 June 2003 September 2003 December 2003 March 2004 June 2004 September 2004 ecember 2004 March 2005 June 2005 September 2005 December 2005 March 2006 June 2006 September 2006 December 2006 March 2007 June 2007 September 2007
(mln. aansluitingen)
KPN (DSL) Alternative DSL operators Total DSL Cable operators Total cable and DSL
• Negotiated solution: KPN has now reached agreement on principles (MoUs) with the four largest LLU
operators (bbned, Orange, Tele2, Easynet), Solcon and Plex; 3 others no result (yet)
• KPN translates the agreements in a non-discriminatory public offer
–1st version: 1 October 2007, 2nd this month
Developments all-IP
Postal market
• New Postal Act postponed
• New date wil depend on
– state of affairs in Germany
– conditions of employment for postal workers in The Netherlands
• OPTA in favor of immediate liberalisation
Revenues and returns TNT
(reserved and universal service)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
millions euros
Total Revenues Reserved
Area
Total Revenues other Universal Services Return other Universal Services
Return Reserved Area
Volume adressed mail
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
2003 2004 2005 2006
Ye ar
millions euros
Top 3 companies TNT Mail
Universal Service TNT Selekt mail/Sandd
