$VVHVVLQJDFFHVVLELOLW\IRUWKH5DQGVWDG
PHWURSROLWDQDUHDLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
OHDUQLQJOHVVRQVIRU$VLDQPHJDFLWLHV
3KDP7KL+RQJ+D
0DUFK
&RXUVH7LWOH *HR,QIRUPDWLRQ6FLHQFHDQG(DUWK2EVHUYDWLRQ
IRU(QYLURQPHQWDO0RGHOOLQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW
/HYHO 0DVWHURI6FLHQFH06F
&RXUVH'XUDWLRQ 6HSWHPEHU±0DUFK
&RQVRUWLXPSDUWQHUV 8QLYHUVLW\RI6RXWKDPSWRQ8.
/XQG8QLYHUVLW\6ZHGHQ 8QLYHUVLW\RI:DUVDZ3RODQG
8QLYHUVLW\RI7ZHQWH)DFXOW\,7&7KH1HWKHUODQGV
$VVHVVLQJDFFHVVLELOLW\LQWKH5DQGVWDGPHWURSROLWDQDUHDLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV
/HDUQLQJOHVVRQVIRU$VLDQPHJDFLWLHV
E\
3KDP7KL+RQJ+D
7KHVLVVXEPLWWHGWRWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI7ZHQWHIDFXOW\,7&LQSDUWLDOIXOILOPHQWRI
WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH GHJUHH RI 0DVWHU RI 6FLHQFH LQ *HRLQIRUPDWLRQ 6FLHQFH
DQG(DUWK2EVHUYDWLRQIRU(QYLURQPHQWDO0RGHOOLQJDQG0DQDJHPHQW
7KHVLV$VVHVVPHQW%RDUG
&KDLUPDQ
3URI'U,U0)$00DUWLQYDQ0DDUVHYHHQ ([WHUQDOH[DPLQHU 'U0DáJRU]DWD5RJH:LĞQLHZVND
)LUVWVXSHUYLVRU 'U,U0+30DUN=XLGJHHVW
6HFRQGVXSHUYLVRU ,QJ)+0)UDQVYDQGHQ%RVFK
'LVFODLPHU
7KLVGRFXPHQWGHVFULEHVZRUNXQGHUWDNHQDVSDUWRIDSURJUDPPHRIVWXG\DW
WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7ZHQWH )DFXOW\ ,7& $OO YLHZV DQG RSLQLRQV H[SUHVVHG
WKHUHLQ UHPDLQ WKH VROH UHVSRQVLELOLW\ RI WKH DXWKRU DQG GR QRW QHFHVVDULO\
UHSUHVHQWWKRVHRIWKHXQLYHUVLW\
L
$EVWUDFW
$FFHVVLELOLW\LVDFRPSUHKHQVLYHSHUIRUPDQFHPHDVXUHIRUWKHLQWHJUDWLRQEHWZHHQ
ODQG XVH DQG WUDQVSRUW V\VWHPV ,Q WKLV UHVHDUFK WZR DFFHVVLELOLW\ PHDVXUHV DUH
GHVFULEHG DQG DSSOLHG WR WZR XUEDQ DUHDV +DQRL ± 9LHWQDP DQG 5DQGVWDG WKH
1HWKHUODQGV -RE DFFHVVLELOLW\ E\ SULYDWH DQG SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW DUH FDOFXODWHG XVLQJ
WKHWUDGLWLRQDOSRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHFRUUHFWHGIRUFRPSHWLWLRQRIMREV7KH
IXUWKHUJRDOLVWRFRPSDUHDFFHVVLELOLW\RISULYDWHYHUVXVSXEOLFWUDQVSRUW7KHUHVXOWV
LOOXVWUDWHWKHFRPSOH[UHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQFLW\FHQWUHVDQGWKHLU QHLJKERXUKRRGV
DQG KHOS WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH LQIOXHQFH RI PDMRU WUDQVSRUW LQIUDVWUXFWXUH ZKLFK DUH
PRWRUF\FOHVDQGEXVHVLQ+DQRLDQGFDUVDQGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWQHWZRUNLQ5DQGVWDG
0RUHLQYHVWLJDWLRQVDUHGRQHRQWKHLQWHUDFWLRQDQGLPSDFWVRIWZREDVLFXUEDQIRUP
FRQILJXUDWLRQVLHPRQRFHQWULFIRUPLQ+DQRLDQGSRO\FHQWULFIRUPLQ5DQGVWDGRQ
GLIIHUHQFHV RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ RI SULYDWH DQG SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW PRGHV )LYH VFHQDULRV
ZLWK FKDQJLQJ MRE GLVWULEXWLRQ ODERXU GLVWULEXWLRQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FRQGLWLRQV RU
FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKHVH DUH WHVWHG IRU WKLV SXUSRVH 7KH UHVXOWV VKRZ WKH SRWHQWLDO
HQKDQFHPHQW RI +DQRL DFFHVVLELOLW\ E\ FKDQJLQJ WR SRO\FHQWULF XUEDQ IRUP
,PSURYHPHQWVRIEXVQHWZRUNLQ+DQRLDUHDOVRYDOXDEOHRSWLRQV6FHQDULRVRQWKH
5DQGVWDGVKRZVRPHVPDOOLPSURYHPHQWVE\HQKDQFLQJWKHWUDQVSRUWFRQGLWLRQVDQG
FHUWDLQDGYDQWDJHRIPRQRFHQWULFXUEDQIRUP0RUHVWXG\VKRXOGEHGRQHWRLGHQWLI\
DQGXWLOL]HWKHDGYDQWDJHVRIERWKPRQRFHQWULFDQGSRO\FHQWULFXUEDQIRUPV
7KLV VWXG\ SURYLGHV SODQQHUV DQG GHFLVLRQ PDNHUV ZLWK YDOXDEOH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ
DFFHVVLELOLW\LQ+DQRLDQG5DQGVWDGE\GLIIHUHQWWUDQVSRUWPRGHV,QDGGLWLRQLWLVD
YDOXDEOHDFFHVVIRUSXEOLFZKRZDQWWRVWLFNWRWKHVXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQWE\XVLQJ
PRUHSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWPRGH
LL
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
,ZRXOGOLNHWRWKDQNP\VXSHUYLVRUV'U,U0DUN=XLGJHHVWDQG,QJ)UDQVYDQGHQ
%RVFKIRUWKHLUVXSSRUWDQGJXLGDQFHWKURXJKRXWWKHGXUDWLRQRIWKLVUHVHDUFK)URP
SUREOHPVROYLQJWRPRUDOVXSSRUWWKHLUKHOSLVUHDOO\LQYDOXDEOH,ZRXOGDOVROLNHWR
WKDQN WKHP IRU WKHLU JUHDW HIIRUWV WR REWDLQ WKH GDWD ZKLFK PDGH WKLV UHVHDUFK
SRVVLEOH,DPDOVRJUDWHIXOWR0U1JX\HQ1JRF4XDQJIRUSURYLGLQJPHZLWKSDUWO\
QHWZRUN RI +DQRL +H DOVR JDY H PH D ORW RI DGY LFH GXULQJ WKH ILUVW VWDJH RI WKLV
UHVHDUFK , ZRXOG OLNH WR JLYH VSHFLDO WKDQNV WR 'DQJ 'XRQJ IRU KLV H[WUHPHO\
KHOSIXOOHVVRQVRQSURJUDPPLQJ7KDQNVWRKLPIRUDOZD\VVWDQGLQJE\P\VLGHLQ
WKLV SKDVH )LQDOO\ , H[WHQG P\ WKDQNV WR P\ IDPLO\ DQG IULHQGV ZKR DOZD\V
VXSSRUWPHDQGZLWKRXWWKHPWKLVWKHVLVZLOOQRWEHSRVVLEOH
LLL
7DEOHRIFRQWHQWV
,1752'8&7,21
%DFNJURXQG
5HVHDUFK3UREOHP
5HVHDUFK2EMHFWLYHV
5HVHDUFK4XHVWLRQV
&RQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUN
7KHVLVVWUXFWXUH
678'<$5($6
8UEDQIRUPFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
7UDQVSRUWFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
/,7(5$785(5(9,(:
3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHV
$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQ
,PSDFWVRIXUEDQIRUPRQWUDQVSRUWDQGDFFHVVLELOLW\
$&&(66,%,/,7<(9$/8$7,21)2535,9$7($1'38%/,&
75$163257,15$1'67$'$1'+$12,
0HWKRGRORJ\GDWDVRXUFHDQGDVVXPSWLRQV
0HWKRGRORJ\
'DWDDQGDVVXPSWLRQV
0HDVXUH7UDGLWLRQDOSRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUH
-REDFFHVVLELOLW\RISULYDWHWUDQVSRUWLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRL
-REDFFHVVLELOLW\RISXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRL
&RPSDULVRQVRISULYDWHDQGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRL
0HDVXUH$FFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQ
-REDFFHVVLELOLW\RISULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
-REDFFHVVLELOLW\RISXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
&RPSDULVRQRISULYDWHDQGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQR
&RUUHODWLRQVRISRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHDQGDFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUH
ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQ
LY
'LVFXVVLRQ
6&(1$5,26
6FHQDULR&KDQJHMREGLVWULEXWLRQ
6FHQDULR,PSURYHWKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUH
6FHQDULR&KDQJHMREGLVWULEXWLRQDQGLPSURYHWKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUH
6FHQDULR&KDQJHODERXUGLVWULEXWLRQ
6FHQDULR&KDQJHMREGLVWULEXWLRQDQGODERXUGLVWULEXWLRQ
'LVFXVVLRQ
&21&/86,21
5()(5(1&(6
$33(1',;
Y
/LVWRIILJXUHV
)LJXUH&RQFHSWXDO)UDPHZRUN
)LJXUH-REGLVWULEXWLRQLQ5DQGVWDGFLWLHV
)LJXUH-REGHQVLW\LQWKH5DQGVWDGDUHD
)LJXUH-REGHQVLW\LQ+DQRLGLVWULFWV
)LJXUH3RSXODWLRQGLVWULEXWLRQLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRL
)LJXUH9LVXDOL]DWLRQRIDFFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQRI]RQHL
)LJXUH,PSHGDQFHIXQFWLRQVDOOPRGHVDQGDOOWULSSXUSRVHVWDNHQWRJHWKHU
)LJXUH7UDYHOWLPHGHFD\FXUYHIRU5DQGVWDG
)LJXUH7UDYHOWLPHGHFD\FXUYHIRU+DQRL
)LJXUH0HWKRGIRUWUDYHOWLPHFDOFXODWLRQRI5DQGVWDG
)LJXUH3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SULYDWHWUDQVSRUWLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRL
)LJXUH5RDGGHQVLW\LQ+DQRLFRPSDULQJWRRWKHUPHJDFLWLHVLQ$VLD
)LJXUH3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRL
)LJXUH5DWLRRISRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SULYDWHDQG
)LJXUH'LVWULEXWLRQRIMRXUQH\VWRZRUNLQVHOHFWHGFLWLHVLQ(XURSH
)LJXUH5DWLRRISRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SULYDWHDQG
)LJXUH$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH5DWLRRIDFFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREV
)LJXUH5DWLRRIDFFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREV
)LJXUH&RUUHODWLRQRIWZRPHWKRGVIRU5DQGVWDGFDUV
)LJXUH&RUUHODWLRQRIWZRPHWKRGVIRU5DQGVWDGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH&RUUHODWLRQRIWZRPHWKRGVIRU+DQRLPRWRUF\FOHV
)LJXUH&RUUHODWLRQRIWZRPHWKRGVIRU+DQRLEXVHV
)LJXUH+DQRLDQG5DQGVWDGQHZXUEDQVWUXFWXUHV
)LJXUH1HZMREGLVWULEXWLRQIRU5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRLLQVFHQDULRVDQG
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
YL
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR$FFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\EXVHVLQ+DQRL
)LJXUH6FHQDULR3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ5DQGVWDG
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ
5DQGVWDG
)LJXUH6FHQDULRB$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQE\PRWRUF\FOHVLQ+DQRL
)LJXUH6FHQDULRB$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQE\EXVHVLQ+DQRL
)LJXUH6FHQDULRB$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQE\FDUVLQ5DQGVWDG
)LJXUH6FHQDULRB$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ
5DQGVWDG
)LJXUH6FHQDULRE±3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ
5DQGVWDG
)LJXUH6FHQDULRE±$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ
5DQGVWDG
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±1HZODERUGLVWULEXWLRQLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRL
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
)LJXUH6FHQDULR±$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWRMREVE\SXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
YLL
/LVWRIWDEOHV
7DEOH&XWRIIYDOXHVDQGHTXLYDOHQWQXPEHURIFHQWUHVIRU5DQGVWDG
7DEOH&XWRIIYDOXHVDQGHTXLYDOHQWQXPEHURIFHQWUHVIRU+DQRL
7DEOH6XPPDU\RIDFWLYLWLHVEDVHGDFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHV
7DEOH'DWDVRXUFH
7DEOH0RWRUF\FOHVSHHGFDWHJRULHV
7DEOH%XVVWRSWLPH
7DEOH6XPPDU\RIXUEDQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGFKDQJHVXVHGLQ6FHQDULRV
&+$37(5
,1752'8&7,21
%DFNJURXQG
7UDQVSRUWSODQVDUHRIWHQEDVHGRQLQFUHDVLQJPRELOLW\ZKLFKLVHDV\WRXVHDQGWR
LQWHUSUHW IRU SODQQHUV DQG WKH JHQHUDO SXEOLF *HXUV DQG 5LWVHPD YDQ (FN
+RZHYHU WKH UHDOL]DWLRQ WKDW WUDQVSRUW LV D GHULYHG GHPDQG DQG WKH LQFUHDVLQJ
DWWHQWLRQ IRU VXVWDLQDEOH WUDQVSRUW KDYH UDLVHG WKH FRQFHSW RI DFFHVVLELOLW\
$FFHVVLELOLW\DQGPRELOLW\DUHW\SLFDOO\GHILQHGLQFRQWUDVW0RELOLW\RIWHQUHIHUVWR
DFWXDO PRYHPHQWV DORQJ D QHWZRUN WKH HDVH WR WUDYHO IURP RQH SODFH WR DQRWKHU
SODFH +DQG\ DQG 1LHPHLHU *XWLpUUH] 5RE HW DO 2SSRVLWHO\
DFFHVVLELOLW\LVJHQHUDOO\GHILQHGDVWKHHDVHWRUHDFKJRRGVVHUYLFHVDFWLYLWLHVDQG
GHVWLQDWLRQVZKLFKDUHDOWRJHWKHUFDOOHGRSSRUWXQLWLHV*HXUV/LWPDQ
7KXVPRELOLW\UHSUHVHQWVWKHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHZKLOHDFFHVVLELOLW\LVDVKDUSUHIOHFWLRQ
RI WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ ODQG XVH DQG WUDQVSRUW $V D UHVXOW DFFHVVLELOLW\ KDV EHHQ
XVHGUHFHQWO\DVDNH\FULWHULRQWRDVVHVVWUDQVSRUWSROLFLHVDVZHOODVGHQVLW\DQG
VSDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQRISHRSOHDQGDFWLYLWLHVLQFLWLHVRUFRXQWULHV
$FFHVVLELOLW\DVDFRQFHSWILUVWDSSHDUHGLQWKHV*XWLpUUH]5REHWDO DQG KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG VLQFH WKHQ $ QXPEHU RI VWXGLHV ZHUH GRQH WR UHYLHZ
FODVVLI\ DQG HYDOXDWH DFFHVVLELOLW\ DQG LWV PHDVXUHV *HXUV DQG 5LWVHPD YDQ (FN
*HXUVDQG:HH(O*HQHLG\DQG/HYLQVRQ*HXUV*XWLpUUH]
5RE HW DO 7KHUH DUH VHYHUDO DSSURDFKHV DV ZHOO DV FRQWH[WV WR HYDOXDWLQJ
DFFHVVLELOLW\7KHVLPSOHVWRQHLVWKURXJKFDOFXODWLQJDYDLODEOHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIURPD
SRLQWZLWKLQDWUDYHOWLPHRUGLVWDQFH0RUHFRPSOH[DSSURDFKHVDUHEDVHGRQWKH
XWLOLW\WKHRU\DQGWKURXJKWKHLQGLYLGXDOGHPDQGV
7KHFRQFHSWRIDFFHVVLELOLW\DOVRPDNHVLWWKHSHUIRUPDQFHLQGLFDWRUIRUVXVWDLQDEOH
GHYHORSPHQW ZKLFK LV WKH FRPELQDWLRQ RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW HQYLURQPHQWDO
SURWHFWLRQ DQG VRFLDO HTXLW\ 8,73 *RRG DFFHVVLELOLW\ VXSSOLHV JRRG
H[FKDQJHV RI JRRGV DQG SHRSOH ZKLFK SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROH LQ HFRQRPLF
GHYHORSPHQW2QWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQJRRGDFFHVVLELOLW\LV
WKRXJKW WR EULQJ XS OHVV HQHUJ\ XVH OHVV SROOXWLRQ DQG OHVV RWKHU HQYLURQPHQWDO
LVVXHV7KHVHEHWWHUHQYLURQPHQWDOUHODWHGUHVXOWVDUHQRWRQO\ZLWKLQWKHFRPSDULVRQ
RIRQHWUDQVSRUWPRGHEXWDOVRUHODWHGWRGLIIHUHQWSROOXWLRQOHYHOVRISXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
DQGSULYDWHWUDQVSRUW,QFDVHRIVRFLDOHTXLW\EHWWHUDFFHVVLELOLW\FDQKHOSSHRSOHWR
MRLQLQPRUHVRFLDODFWLYLWLHVZKLFKDUHQHFHVVDU\SDUWVRIRXUGDLO\OLYHV%HQHILWV
DQGHTXDODFFHVVRIPHPEHUVLQWKHVRFLHW\DUHRIWHQWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUV$V
DUHVXOWPRGHVRIWUDQVSRUWDUHDOVRLPSRUWDQWLQHYDOXDWLQJVRFLDOHTXLW\%\XVLQJ
FRPSDULVRQV DPRQJ DFFHVVLELOLW\ RI GLIIHUHQW WUDQVSRUW PRGHV WKH OHYHO RI
VXVWDLQDEOHGHYHORSPHQWLVSDUWO\HYDOXDWHG,QWKLVWKHVLVDFFHVVLELOLW\E\GLIIHUHQW
PRGHVRIWUDQVSRUWDVZHOODVGLIIHUHQWXUEDQFRQILJXUDWLRQVLVWKHPDLQWKHPHV
7KH XVH RI SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW REYLRXVO\ EULQJV PRUH EHQHILWV WKDQ SULYDWH WUDQVSRUW
VXFKDVFDUVLQWHUPRIHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUVSHFWLYH,QDGGLWLRQWROHVVFDUERQGLR[LGH
UHOHDVHGPRUHXVHLQSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWUHTXLUHVOHVVXVHLQHQHUJ\OHVVPRQH\VSHQG
RQ PDLQWHQDQFH RU VSDFH IRU SDUNLQJ )URP WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI HFRQRP\ SXEOLF
WUDQVSRUWDOVRUHTXLUHVOHVVSD\PHQW,WFDQDOVRSURYLGHHTXDOVXSSO\DQGDFFHVVWR
HYHU\PHPEHUVRIWKHVRFLHW\+RZHYHULQVHYHUDOVWXGLHVRQDFFHVVLELOLW\RISXEOLF
WUDQVSRUW DQG SULYDWH DFFHVVLELOLW\ 'RQJ %HQ$NLYD HW DO *HXUV
SULYDWHWUDQVSRUWKDVDOZD\VVXUSDVVHGRYHUSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQDOPRVWHYHU\UHJLRQ
7KHH[SODQDWLRQILUVWLQYROYHVLQVRPHUHDVRQVRIIOH[LELOLW\FRVWDQGWLPH3HRSOH
DUHUHDG\WRFKDQJHIURPSULYDWHWUDQVSRUWWRSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQFDVHWKH\FDQHDVLO\
KDYH LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG JR RXW ZKHQHYHU WKH\ ZDQW RU WKH\ FDQ VDYH PRUH XVLQJ
SXEOLFWUDQVSRUWUHJDUGLQJWLPHDQGFRVW&DUU2YVWHGDO2GHUXGHWDO
,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHSXEOLFVHUYLFHFRQGLWLRQVWKHVHUHDVRQVDUHDOVRGHULYHGIURPWKH
XUEDQ VWUXFWXUH ZKLFK KDV D FORVH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK ODQG XVH SDWWHUQV $OWKRXJK
JRYHUQPHQWV IURP PRVW FRXQWULHV KDYH QRW RQO\ LQYHVWHG LQ LPSURYLQJ TXDOLW\ RI
SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW V\VWHP EXW DOVR VXSSRUWHG DQG HQFRXUDJHG SHRSOH WR XVH SXEOLF
WUDQVSRUW SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW LV VWLOO OHVV WKDQ SULYDWH WUDQVSRUW LQ JHQHUDO :KDW PD\
FDXVH WKLV IDFW" 7KH DQVZHU FDQ EH JLYHQ IURP DQDO\VHV RQ WKH DFFHVVLELOLW\ OHYHO
SURYLGHGE\ERWKPRGHVLQUHODWLRQWRWKHXUEDQVWUXFWXUHRIFLWLHV
$V IRU PRGH VKLIWLQJ IURP SULYDWH WUDQVSRUW WR SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW WKHUH LV D QHHG WR
FRPSDUH SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH WUDQVSRUW DV ZHOO DV WR LGHQWLI\ WKH LPSDFWV RI XUEDQ
IRUPLQJHQHUDO0RUHVSHFLILFDOO\FDWHULQJIRUDFFHVVLELOLW\KHOSVWRVHHKRZPRUH
VXVWDLQDEOH WUDQVSRUW RSWLRQV VXFK DV UDLOZD\ RU EXVHV FDQ SURYLGH D FRPSHWLWLYH
GHJUHH RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKDW PDWFKHV OHVV VXVWDLQDEOH RSWLRQV VXFK DV FDUV RU
PRWRUF\FOHV7KHFRPSDULVRQFDQSURYLGHLQVLJKWDQGXQGHUVWDQGLQJLQWRWKHFDXVLQJ
IDFWV RU WKH XQGHUO\LQJ SUREOHPV )URP WKDW XQGHUVWDQGLQJ VROXWLRQV FDQ EH
VXJJHVWHG
5HVHDUFK3UREOHP
$OWKRXJK WKHUH DUH VWXGLHV RQ FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH WUDQVSRUW
WKHUHDUHVWLOOQRWPDQ\VWXGLHVRQWKHHIIHFWVRIGLIIHUHQWXUEDQIRUPVLQFRPELQDWLRQ
ZLWKWKHGLIIHUHQWPRGDORSWLRQV7ZRRIWKHPRVWSRSXODUXUEDQIRUPVDWSUHVHQWDUH
SRO\FHQWULFDQGPRQRFHQWULF:KLOHWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHVHXUEDQIRUPVRQWUDQVSRUWDQG
WKHODQGXVHV\VWHPKDYHEHHQWKHNH\HOHPHQWVIRUPDQ\SODQQLQJV\VWHPVWRUHGXFH
SULYDWHWUDQVSRUWWKHEHVWIRUPLVVWLOODFRQWURYHUVLDOLVVXHRIVFLHQWLVWVUHVHDUFKHUV
DV ZHOO DV SODQQHUV %RDUQHW DQG &UDQH %HUWROLQL OH &OHUFT HW DO
'HDOLQJ ZLWK WKLV LVVXH WKLV VWXG\ ZLOO DGG WKH HIIHFWV RI GLIIHUHQW XUEDQ IRUPV
PRQRFHQWULF DQG SRO\FHQWULF WR WKH FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ DFFHVVLELOLW\ OHYHO RI
GLIIHUHQWWUDYHOPRGHVSXEOLFDQGSULYDWHWUDQVSRUW
(YHQWKRXJKPDQ\VWXGLHVXVHPRUHFRPSOH[LQGLFDWRUVIRUDFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHV
WKH XVH RI PRGHEDVHG WUDYHO WLPH WR HYDOXDWH DFFHVVLELOLW\ LV REYLRXVO\ HIIHFWLYH
7KXV LQ WKLV VWXG\ WKH WUDYHO WLPH WKUHVKROG LV XVHG LQ WKH SRWHQWLDO DFFHVVLELOLW\
PHDVXUHV DQG WKHQ FRUUHFWHG ZLWK WKH FRPSHWLWLRQ EDVHG RQ GHVWLQDWLRQ ORFDWLRQV
*HXUVDQG5LWVHPDYDQ(FNYDQ:HH+DJRRUWHWDO
5HVHDUFK2EMHFWLYHV
7KHJHQHUDOREMHFWLYHRIWKLVVWXG\LVWRFDOFXODWHHYDOXDWHDQGFRPSDUHHIIHFWVRI
GLIIHUHQWXUEDQIRUPVRQMREDFFHVVLELOLW\RIGLIIHUHQWWUDYHOPRGHVSXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
DQG SULYDWH WUDQVSRUW 7KLV JHQHUDO REMHFWLYH LV IXUWKHU VXEGLYLGHG LQWR WKH
IROORZLQJVXEREMHFWLYHV
Ͳ 7RHYDOXDWHMREDFFHVVLELOLW\RIGLIIHUHQWWUDYHOPRGHVXVLQJORFDWLRQEDVHG
PHDVXUHVXVLQJDWUDYHOWLPHLQGLFDWRUDQGFRUUHFWHGIRUFRPSHWLWLRQDWWKH
GHVWLQDWLRQV
Ͳ 7R HY DOXDWH DQG FRPSDUH WKH HIIHFWV RI GLIIHUHQW XUEDQ IRUPV RQ
DFFHVVLELOLW\
Ͳ 7RGUDZOHVVRQVIRUXUEDQDQGWUDQVSRUWSODQQLQJ
5HVHDUFK4XHVWLRQV
)RUHDFKVXEREMHFWLYHWKHIROORZLQJUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQVKDYHEHHQIRUPXODWHG
7RHYDOXDWHMREDFFHVVLELOLW\RIGLIIHUHQWWUDYHOPRGHVXVLQJORFDWLRQEDVHGPHDVXUHV
XVLQJDWUDYHOWLPHLQGLFDWRUDQGFRUUHFWHGIRUFRPSHWLWLRQDWWKHGHVWLQDWLRQV
Ͳ :KDWPHDVXUHVH[LVWLQWKHOLWHUDWXUH"
Ͳ +RZDUHORFDOFRQWH[WVGULYLQJWKHFKRLFHIRUPHDVXUH"
Ͳ :KLFKGDWDLVQHHGHGIRULPSOHPHQWLQJWKHFKRVHQDFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHV"
Ͳ :KDWDUHWKHGLIIHUHQFHVRIDFFHVVLELOLW\LQGLIIHUHQWWUDYHOPRGHV"
Ͳ :KDWDUHWKHGLIIHUHQFHVRIDFFHVVLELOLW\LQGLIIHUHQWXUEDQIRUPV"
Ͳ 'RHVWKHFRPSHWLWLRQIDFWRUDOWHUWKHUHVXOWV"
7RHYDOXDWHDQGFRPSDUHWKHHIIHFWVRIGLIIHUHQWXUEDQIRUPVRQDFFHVVLELOLW\
Ͳ +RZGRWKHXUEDQIRUPVDIIHFWWUDQVSRUW"
Ͳ +RZGRWKHXUEDQIRUPVDIIHFWWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\OHYHO"
7RGUDZOHVVRQVIRUXUEDQDQGWUDQVSRUWSODQQLQJ
Ͳ :KDW DUH WKH H[LVWLQJ SUREOHPV RI SULY DWH DQG SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW LQ WKHVH
DUHDV"
Ͳ +RZGRWKHVFHQDULRVDIIHFWWKHSUHVHQWDFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHV"
Ͳ :KDWSROLFLHVFDQEHIRUPXODWHGWRLPSURYHXUEDQDQGWUDQVSRUWSODQQLQJ"
&RQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUN
$ FRQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUN LV GUDZQ WR REWDLQ WKH REMHFWLYHV RI WKLV UHVHDUFK
$FFHVVLELOLW\RISULYDWHDQGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWDVZHOODVWKHWZREDVLFXUEDQIRUPV
LHPRQRFHQWULFDQGSRO\FHQWULFDUHWKHFRUHSDUWVRIWKLVUHVHDUFK&RPSDULVRQVRI
WKHHIIHFWVRIGLIIHUHQW XUEDQIRUPVLQFRPELQDWLRQ ZLWKGLIIHUHQW WUDQVSRUW PRGHV
DUHHYDOXDWHGDOVRLQGLIIHUHQWVFHQDULRV7RREWDLQWKHVHJRDOVRIWKHUHVHDUFKGDWD
RQ ODQG XVH DQG WUDQVSRUW FRQGLWLRQV DUH UHTXLUHG 7KHVH GDWD WRJHWKHU ZLWK
DVVXPSWLRQV DQG FDOFXODWLRQV ZLOO EH SURFHVVHG XVLQJ SRWHQWLDO DFFHVVLELOLW\
PHDVXUHVFRUUHFWHG ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQIDFWRUV7KHXOWLPDWHJRDOLVOHDUQLQJOHVVRQV
IRUWUDQVSRUWDQGODQGXVHSODQQLQJ0RUHGHWDLOVDUHSURYLGHGLQ)LJXUHEHORZ
)LJXUH&RQFHSWXDO)UDPHZRUN
7KHVLVVWUXFWXUH
7KLVWKHVLVLVPDLQO\FRPSRVHGRIWZRSDUWVDFFHVVLELOLW\FRPSDULVRQRISULYDWHDQG
SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW PRGHV LQ VWXG\ DUHDV DQG LPSDFWV HYDOXDWLRQ RI XUEDQ IRUPV RQ
DFFHVVLELOLW\)LYHFKDSWHUVIROORZ1H[WFKDSWHUZLOOGHVFULEHWZRVWXG\DUHDVDQG
WKHLU PDLQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV /LWHUDWXUH UHYLHZ LV SURYLGHG LQ &KDSWHU IRU GLIIHUHQW
DFFHVVLELOLW\ PHDVXUHV DQG UHODWLRQVKLS RI XUEDQ IRUPV ODQG XVH DQG DFFHVVLELOLW\
&KDSWHU ZLOO FRQFHQWUDWH RQ XVLQJ GLIIHUHQW PHDVXUHV WR HYDOXDWH GLIIHUHQW
DFFHVVLELOLW\ OHYHOV RI SULYDWH DQG SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW LQ WZR VWXG\ DUHDV &KDSWHU
LOOXVWUDWHV PRUH RQ HIIHFWV RI XUEDQ IRUPV E\ XVLQJ GLIIHUHQW VFHQDULRV 6RPH
DGGLWLRQDOGLVFXVVLRQVIROORZE\FRQFOXVLRQLQ&KDSWHU
&+$37(5
678'<$5($6
7KLVFKDSWHUGHVFULEHVEULHIO\WKHWZRVWXG\DUHDVIRUWKLVUHVHDUFKLH5DQGVWDG±
7KH1HWKHUODQGVDQG+DQRL±9LHWQDP7KHVHWZRDUHDVDUHVXSSRVHGWRSURYLGHWZR
FKDUDFWHULVWLF XUEDQ IRUPV IRU WKLV VWXG\ LH D SRO\FHQWULF DQG PRQRFHQWULF
FRQILJXUDWLRQ
7KH5DQGVWDGUHJLRQLVDODUJHDUHDLQWKH:HVWRIWKH1HWKHUODQGVFRPSULVLQJRI
ODUJH FLWLHV VXFK DV $PVWHUGDP 5RWWHUGDP 8WUHFKW 7KH +DJXH $PHUVIRRUW
/HLGHQ'RUGUHFKW+DDUOHP +LOYHUVXPDQG*RXGD:LWK DSRSXODWLRQDURXQG
PLOOLRQRYHUPRUHWKDQVTXDUHNLORPHWUHV5DQGVWDGFRYHUVRQO\DUHDRI
7KH1HWKHUODQGVZKLOHPRUHWKDQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQLVOLYLQJWKHUHDQGDERXW
KDOIRIWKHLQFRPHRI1HWKHUODQGVLVHDUQHGZLWKLQWKLVDUHD2(&'
,QFRPSDULVRQWRWKH5DQGVWDG+DQRLUHJLRQLVDODUJHXUEDQDUHDLQWKH1RUWKRI
9LHWQDPZLWKDSRSXODWLRQRIPLOOLRQRYHUVTXDUHNLORPHWUHV6XUURXQGHGE\
ILYHVDWHOOLWHWRZQVDQGWRZQVKLSV+DQRLFLW\LVFRQVLGHUHGQRWRQO\WKHSROLWLFDO
DQGFXOWXUDOFHQWUHEXWDOVRHFRQRPLFDQGGHPRJUDSKLFFHQWHUIRUWKLVUHJLRQ
7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQV ZLOOGLVFXVVWZR PDLQHOHPHQWVXUEDQIRUPFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
DQGWUDQVSRUWFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHVHVWXG\DUHDV
8UEDQIRUPFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
)LUVWO\WKHXUEDQVWUXFWXUHRI5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRLZLOOEHGLVFXVVHG7KH5DQGVWDG
FRPSULVHV RI GLVWULFWV PRGHOOHG LQ +DQRL¶V WUDQVSRUW VWXGLHV DV 7UDQVSRUW
$QDO\VLV =RQHV 7$= 7KHVH 7$=V IRUP FLWLHV ZLWKLQ WKLV UHJLRQ ,Q +DQRL
WKHUHDUHFRPPXQHVDV7$=VZKLFKGLYLGHLQWRGLVWULFWV7KHGHPRJUDSKLF
GDWDRIWKHVHWZRDUHDVDUHILUVWO\XVHGWRLGHQWLI\WKHLUXUEDQIRUPFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
)RU WKLV UHVHDUFK WZR VWXG\ DUHDV ZLWK WZR XUEDQ IRUPV ZLOO EH DQDO\]HG ,V
5DQGVWDGSRO\FHQWULFDQGLV+DQRLPRQRFHQWULF"
)URP OLWHUDWXUH DQ XUEDQ FHQWUH KDV D FORVH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK HPSOR\PHQW
HPSOR\PHQW GHQVLW\ SRSXODWLRQ SRSXODWLRQ GHQVLW\ +RZHYHU HPSOR\PHQW LV WKH
NH\ LQ IRUPLQJ XUEDQ FHQWUHV $ FHQWUH LV EHVW LGHQWLILHG E\ WKH FOHDUO\ KLJKHU
HPSOR\PHQW GHQVLW\ WKDQ WKH VXUURXQGLQJ DUHDV 0F'RQDOG *LXOLDQR DQG
6PDOO0RUHFRPSOH[ZD\VWRLGHQWLI\DFHQWUHPD\EHEDVHGRQERWKODQGXVH
PL[ DQG FRPPXWHU IORZV *LXOLDQR DQG 6PDOO 'LIIHUHQW DSSURDFKHV IRU
FHQWUHVLGHQWLILFDWLRQKDYHDOVREHHQSURSRVHG*LXOLDQRDQG6PDOOLGHQWLILHGFHQWUHV
E\ FXWRII YDOXHV RI HPSOR\PHQW GDWD DQG WKH QRWLRQ RI SUR[LPLW\ *LXOLDQR DQG
6PDOO0F'RQDOGDQGKLVFROOHDJXHVXVHGWKHUHJUHVVLRQDQDO\VLVWRGHWHUPLQH
WKH FHQWUH DUHDV 0F'RQDOG 0F0LOOHQ XVHG ORFDOO\ ZHLJKWHG UHJUHVVLRQ WR
LOOXVWUDWHWKHORFDOO\HPSOR\PHQWGHQVLW\IXQFWLRQ0F0LOOHQ
,QWKLVWKHVLVWRVLPSOLI\WKHLGHQWLW\RIXUEDQVWUXFWXUHVDVLPSOHPHWKRGWRLGHQWLI\
XUEDQFHQWUHVLVDSSOLHGEDVHGRQWKHZRUNRI*LXOLDQRDQG6PDOO)URPWKLV
VWXG\DFHQWHULVGHILQHGDVDFRQWLQXRXVVHWRI]RQHVZKLFKKDYHDGHQVLW\LQWHUPV
RIHPSOR\PHQWDERYHSUHVHWFXWRIIYDOXHVܦDQGDOWRJHWKHUKDYHDWOHDVWܧWRWDO
HPSOR\PHQW,QDGGLWLRQDOOWKHLPPHGLDWHO\DGMDFHQW]RQHVPXVWKDYHDMREGHQVLW\
VPDOOHU WKDQ ܦ 7KLV GHILQLWLRQ KHOSV LGHQWLI\ DOO KLJKGHQVLW\ ]RQHV WR EH SDUW RI
XUEDQFHQWUHXQOHVVWKH\DUHWRRVPDOOWRIRUPDWRWDOHPSOR\PHQWDERYHܧ&XWRII
YDOXHVIRUHDFKVWXG\DUHDVGHSHQGRQWKHPLQLPXPWRWDOHPSOR\PHQWDQGPD[LPXP
DUHD
)RU7KH5DQGVWDGWKHFXWRIIYDOXHVZLWKGLIIHUHQWQXPEHURIFHQWUHVDUHSUHVHQWHG
LQ7DEOH
7DEOH&XWRIIYDOXHVDQGHTXLYDOHQWQXPEHURIFHQWUHVIRU5DQGVWDG
7RWDO
HPSOR\P HQWFXWRII
1XPEHU RI
FHQWUHV
$UHD
NP &XPXOD WLYH
DUHD
(PSOR\
PHQW
GHQVLW\
FXWRII
1XPEHURI
FHQWU HV
$UHD
NP &XPXO DWLYH
DUHD
:LWK WKHVH FXWRII YDOXHV IRXU ODUJH FHQWUHV HPHUJH LQ WKH 5DQGVWDG ZLWK D WRWDO
HPSOR\PHQW RI PRUH WKDQ DQG DQ HPSOR\PHQW GHQVLW\ KLJKHU WKDQ
MREVSHUNLORPHWUHVVTXDUHDUH7KHVHFHQWUHVREYLRXVO\DUHWKHNQRZQODUJHFLWLHV
LQWKHDUHDLH$PVWHUGDP5RWWHUGDP8WUHFKWDQG'HQ+DDJ
7KHVHIRXUFLWLHVDUHVSUHDGRYHUWKH5DQGVWDGUHJLRQZKLFKMXVWLILHVQDPLQJWKLVD
SRO\FHQWULFXUEDQIRUP0RUHLOOXVWUDWLRQFDQEHIRXQGLQ)LJXUHDQG
)LJXUH-REGLVWULEXWLRQLQ5DQGVWDGFLWLHV
)LJXUH-REGHQVLW\LQWKH5DQGVWDGDUHD
6LPLODUWRWKH5DQGVWDGDUHDWKHSURFHVVWRLGHQWLI\FXWRIIYDOXHVIRU+DQRLKDVEHHQ
GRQH DQG LV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH +RZHYHU EHFDXVH +DQRL GLVWULFWV KDYH TXLWH
GLIIHUHQWVL]HUDQJLQJIURPNLORPHWUHVVTXDUHIRU+DL%D7UXQJ'LVWULFWWRPRUH
WKDQ NLORPHWUHV VTXDUH IRU %D 9L 'LVWULFW XUEDQ FHQWUHV LGHQWLILFDWLRQ IRU
$PVWHUGDP
8WUHFKW
5RWWHUGDP
'HQ+DDJ
+DQRL ZLOO PDLQO\ GHSHQG RQ HPSOR\PHQW GHQVLW\ ILJXUH UDWKHU WKDQ HPSOR\PHQW
ILJXUH$QLOOXVWUDWLRQRIWKH+DQRLMREGLVWULEXWLRQLVSUHVHQWHGLQ)LJXUH&HQWUHV
LQ+DQRLKDYHHPSOR\PHQWGHQVLW\KLJKHUWKDQMREVSHUNLORPHWUHVVTXDUHDQG
WRWDOHPSOR\PHQWZLOOEHODUJHUWKDQMREV
7DEOH&XWRIIYDOXHVDQGHTXLYDOHQWQXPEHURIFHQWUHVIRU+DQRL
(PSOR\PHQW
GHQVLW\FXWRII 1XPEHURIFHQWUHV $UHDNP &XPXODWLYHDUHD
&HQWUHV LGHQWLILHG LQ +DQRL OLH QH[W WR FRUH DUHD (PSOR\PHQW GHQVLW\ GHFUHDVHV
IURP+DQRLFHQWUHVWRVXEXUEDQDUHDV+DQRLFLW\DSSHDUVFOHDUO\DVDPRQRFHQWULF
DUHD
)LJXUH-REGHQVLW\LQ+DQRLGLVWULFWV
,QDGGLWLRQWRMREGLVWULEXWLRQWKHSRSXODWLRQGLVWULEXWLRQLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRLDUH
DOVRLQYHVWLJDWHGDQGVKRZQLQ)LJXUHIRUUHIHUHQFH
,Q JHQHUDO ZLWK WKHLU H[LVWLQJ XUEDQ IRUPV 5DQGVWDG DQG +DQRL DUH LGHDO FDVHV
UHSUHVHQWLQJIRUSRO\FHQWULFDQGPRQRFHQWULFVWUXFWXUHV(DFKXUEDQIRUPZLOOKDYH
LWVRZQDGYDQWDJHVDVZHOODVGLVDGYDQWDJHV)RUH[DPSOHSRO\FHQWULFXUEDQIRUP
PD\KDYHEHWWHUPRELOLW\DQGVSDFHGXHWRLWVELJJHUDUHDDQGKLJKHUXWLOLW\RIVSDFH
+RZHYHUSRO\FHQWULFXUEDQIRUPUHTXLUHVSODQQHUVWREHPRUHFDUHIXOLQGHVLJQLQJ
DQGLPSOHPHQWLQJDSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWQHWZRUN,QDGGLWLRQGXHWRLWVODUJHUVSDFHDQG
DUHD SHRSOH QRUPDOO\ WUDYHO ORQJHU GLVWDQFHWLPH DQG ZLWK PRUH FDU GHSHQGHQF\
0RQRFHQWULF XUEDQ IRUP LQ DGYHUVH FDQ SURYLGH SODQQHUV ZLWK HDVLHU IXQFWLRQ RI
SXEOLFWUDQVSRUWE\GHVLJQLQJUDGLDOQHWZRUN1RQHWKHOHVVPRQRFHQWULFXUEDQIRUP
FDQUHVXOWLQKLJKFRQJHVWLRQOHYHOVZKLFKPD\WKHQOHDGWRQHJDWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDO
FRQVHTXHQFHV
7UDQVSRUWFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
5DQGVWDGZLWKLWVKLJKUDWHRISRSXODWLRQDQGMREVKDVPDGHPDQ\DFWLYLWLHVPRYH
RXWVLGH RI WKH FLW\ FHQWUHV 1HZ VHWWOHPHQWV DUH DERXW NP IURP WKH FLWLHV
+LOEHUVDQG:LOPLQN'DLO\FRPPXWLQJIRUZRUNKRPHDQGHQWHUWDLQPHQWLV
WKXV LQ GLIIHUHQW GLUHFWLRQV DQG RIWHQ WDNH SODFH RYHU D ORQJHU GLVWDQFH ,Q WKH
5DQGVWDG DUHD WUDQVSRUW LV IDFLOLWDWHG E\ JHQHUDOO\ JRRG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH QHWZRUN RI
PRWRUZD\V DQG YDULRXV NLQGV RI SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW VXFK DV UDLOZD\V VXEZD\V
WUDPZD\V DQG EXV LQ VHYHUDO FLWLHV +RZHYHU RYHU WKH SDVW GHFDGHV WUDYHO LQ
1HWKHUODQGV RU SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ 5DQGVWDG KDV LQFUHDVHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ +LOEHUV DQG
)LJXUH3RSXODWLRQGLVWULEXWLRQLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRL
:LOPLQN 9DQ GHU :HUII /DPEUHJWV HW DO ([SODQDWLRQV IRU WKLV DUH
LQFUHDVLQJZRUNLQJSRSXODWLRQDQGWKHORQJHUWUDYHOGLVWDQFHWRZRUN7KHUHIRUHWKH
H[LVWLQJ QHWZRUN ZLWK QRW PDQ\ DOWHUQDWLYH URXWHV PD\ HQFRXQWHU SUREOHPV RI
LQDGHTXDF\
6WDUWLQJIURPWKH5HQRYDWLRQ3HULRGLQWKHV+DQRLUHJLRQWRJHWKHUZLWKWKHUHVW
RI 9LHWQDP LV XQGHU D UDSLG FKDQJH LQ XUEDQL]DWLRQ Y DQ +RUHQ +RZHY HU
UDSLG XUEDQL]DWLRQ LQ +DQRL LV H[FHHGLQJ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI LQGXVWULHV DQG
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHVWUHQJWKHQHGE\WKHIDFWWKDWWKHUHLVDODFNRISODQQHGLQWHJUDWLRQRI
WUDQVSRUWDQGODQGXVH,QIRUPDOVHWWOHPHQWVKDYHEHHQHVWDEOLVKHGQHDUWKHFRUHFLW\
7UDIILFFRQJHVWLRQEHFRPHVRQHRIWKHPRVWXUJHQWSUREOHPVHVSHFLDOO\LQWKHFLW\
FHQWUH 1JX\HQ $OWKRXJK WKHUH DUH VHYHUDO 0DVWHU 3ODQV IRU +DQRL RQ
WUDQVSRUW VXFK DV EXLOGLQJ QHZ UDLOZD\ KLJKZD\V RU VXEZD\V ZLWKLQ WKH FLW\
9LHWQDPHVH0LQLVWU\RI7UDQVSRUWEXVLVVWLOOWKHPDLQSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWPRGH
DWSUHVHQWLQWKLVELJFLW\DQGWKHPRVWFRPPRQSULYDWHWUDQVSRUWLVPRWRUF\FOHV
(YHQ WKRXJK 5DQGVWDG DQG +DQRL EDVLFDOO\ KDYH WZR GLIIHUHQW HFRQRPLF DQG
LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FRQGLWLRQV WKH EDODQFH EHWZHHQ SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH WUDQVSRUW VKRXOG
VXJJHVWVRPHLPSDFWVRIXUEDQIRUPV7KXVWKLVWKHVLVZLOOLQYHVWLJDWHDQGDVVHVV
WKH LPSDFWV RI XUEDQ IRUPV WKURXJK WKH FRPSDULVRQV RI WUDQVSRUW PRGHV ,Q
5DQGVWDG WKH TXDOLW\ RI SULYDWH WUDQVSRUW LV H[DPLQHG E\ WKH DFFHVVLELOLW\ RI
DYDLODEOHKLJKZD\VDQGUHJLRQDOURDGVZKLFKWRJHWKHUFRQWULEXWHWRWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\
E\FDUVZKLOHWKHTXDOLW\RISXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLVDVVHVVHVWKURXJKWKHVXSSO\RIUDLO
DQG EXV QHWZRUNV ZKLFK DIIHFWV WKH DFFHVVLELOLW\ E\ SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW LQ JHQHUDO
6LQFH PRUH WKDQ SHUFHQWRI WUDQVSRUW LQ WKLV DUHD LV E\ FDUV RU SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW
6WDWLVWLFV 1HWKHUODQGV &%6 WKHVH PRGHV ZLOO EH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH IRU WKH
TXDOLW\RISULYDWHDQGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWRUGHUO\5HJDUGLQJ+DQRLDUHDDFFRUGLQJWR
+$,'(3 $/0(& &RUSRUDWLRQ 1LSSRQ .RHL &R HW DO EXVHV DQG
PRWRUF\FOHVDFFRXQWIRUPRUHWKDQRIWUDQVSRUWLQ+DQRL7KXVWKHTXDOLW\RI
SULYDWHDQGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWZLOOEHDVVHVVHGWKURXJKPRWRUF\FOHDQGEXVQHWZRUNV
&+$37(5
/,7(5$785(5(9,(:
7KHGHILQLWLRQRIDFFHVVLELOLW\LVRIWHQOLQNHGWRWKHOLVWLQJRIDFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHV
DQG LQGLFDWRUV YDQ :HH HW DO 7KHUH LV D ZLGH YDULHW\ RI DFFHVVLELOLW\
PHDVXUHVZKLFKKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHGVLQFHV)RUH[DPSOH9LFNHUPDQ EXLOW KLV PHDVXUHV E\ XVLQJ LQGLFHV RI GLIIHUHQW ODQG XVH W\SHV DQG WUDQVSRUW
FRQGLWLRQV,QDGLIIHUHQWZD\%HUWROLQLXVHGVXLWDEOHSODFHVIRUUHVLGHQWLDO
DUHDVDVWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\LQGLFDWRU)URPWKHOLWHUDWXUHWKHUHDUHPDLQO\WKUHHW\SHV
RIPHDVXUHVWRJHWKHUZLWKLQGLFDWRUVLQGLFDWHGFOHDUO\LQWKHRYHUYLHZRI*HXUVDQG
5LWVHPDYDQ(FN*HXUVDQG5LWVHPDYDQ(FN*HXUVDQGYDQ:HH
Ͳ ,QIUDVWUXFWXUH EDVHG PHDVXUHV DQDO\VH WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH V\VWHP
EDVHG RQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV XVLQJ LQGLFDWRUV VXFK DV ³OHYHO RI
FRQJHVWLRQ´³DYHUDJHWUDYHOVSHHG´RU³WUDYHOWLPH´7KLVPHDVXUHLVRIWHQ
XVHGLQWUDQVSRUWSODQQLQJ
Ͳ $FWLYLWLHV EDVHG PHDVXUHV FRPSULVHG RI ORFDWLRQ ± EDVHG DQG SHUVRQ
EDVHG PHDVXUHV /RFDWLRQEDVHG PHDVXUHV DQDO\VH WKH DFFHVVLELOLW\ DW
ORFDWLRQVDQGHYDOXDWHWKHVSDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIVHUYLFHVRUDFWLYLWLHV7KLV
PHDVXUHXVHVVXFKLQGLFDWRUVDV³WKHQXPEHURIMREVWKDWFDQEHUHDFKHG
ZLWKLQ PLQXWHV´ 7KLV PHDVXUH LV XVHG W\SLFDOO\ LQ XUEDQ SODQQLQJ
3HUVRQEDVHG PHDVXUHV DQDO\VH WKH DFWLYLWLHV DW LQGLYLGXDO OHYHO ,W XVH
LQGLFDWRUV VXFK DV ³QXPEHU RI SHRSOH WUDYHOLQJ WR RQH GHVWLQDWLRQ DW D
VSHFLILF WLPH´ RU ³QXPEHU RI DFWLYLWLHV WKDW SHRSOH FDQ SDUWLFLSDWH LQ D
VSHFLILFWLPH´
Ͳ 8WLOLW\EDVHGLQGLFDWRUVDQDO\VHWKHWUDYHOFRVWEHWZHHQGHVWLQDWLRQVDQG
RULJLQVEDVHGRQWKHXWLOLW\WKHRU\ZKLFKDVVXPHVSHRSOHZLOOFKRRVHWKH
KLJKHVW XWLOLW\ DOWHUQDWLYHV 7KLV PHDVXUH XVHV LQGLFDWRUV VXFK DV ³WUDYHO
FRVWEHWZHHQGHVWLQDWLRQVDQGRULJLQV´
)RU WKHVH WKUHH PHDVXUHV LQIUDVWUXFWXUH EDVHG LV WKH VLPSOHVW EHFDXVH LW RQO\
GHSHQGVRQWKHWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV+RZHYHULWGRHVQRWSURYLGH
LQVLJKWDQGXQGHUVWDQGLQJWRKRZDFFHVVLELOLW\OHYHOVYDU\ZLWKGLIIHUHQWJURXSVDQG
ODQG XVH SDWWHUQV 3HUVRQEDVHG DQG XWLOLW\EDVHG PHDVXUHV FDQ SURYLGH UHVXOWV DW
PLFUROHYHO+RZHYHUWKH\UHTXLUHDQLQWHQVLYHGDWDVXSSO\ZKLFKLVYHU\GLIILFXOWWR
REWDLQ LQ UHDOLW\ $PRQJ WKH DERYH PHDVXUHV ORFDWLRQEDVHG PHDVXUHV DUH
SUHIHUDEOH7KLVNLQGRIPHDVXUHVKDVDEDODQFHEHWZHHQUHTXLUHGGDWDDQGTXDOLW\RI
UHVXOWV7KLVLVWKHUHDVRQZK\ORFDWLRQEDVHGPHDVXUHVDUHPHWKRGVWREHDSSOLHGLQ
WKLV UHVHDUFK 7KH WUDGLWLRQDO SRWHQWLDO DFFHVVLELOLW\ PHDVXUH DQG DFFHVVLELOLW\
PHDVXUH ZLWK FRPSHWLWLRQ DUH FKRVHQ 7KHVH WZR PHWKRGV ZLOO EH GHVFULEHG ZLWK
PRUH GHWDLOV LQ WKH IROORZLQJ SDUW RI WKLV FKDSWHU 0RUHRYHU VXPPDU\ RI PDLQ
DFWLYLWLHVEDVHGDFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHVDUHVKRZQLQWDEOHEHORZ
7DEOH6XPPDU\RIDFWLYLWLHVEDVHGDFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHV
0HDVXUHV 5HIHUHQFH 3ULQFLSOHV )RUPXODVIRU
DFFHVVLELOLW\
&RQWRXU
PHDVXUHV
GLIIHUHQW
QDPH
FXPXODWLYH
RSSRUWXQLW\
LVRFKURQLF
PHDVXUH
SUR[LPLW\
FRXQWGDLO\
DFFHVVLELOLW
:DFKV
DQG.XPDJDL
*HXUV DQG
:HH
(O*HQHLG\
DQG/HYLQVRQ
&HUGD DQG
(O*HQHLG\
Ͳ &RXQW WKH QXPEHU
RI RSSRUWXQLWLHV WKDW
RQHFDQUHDFKZLWKLQD
JLYHQ
WLPHGLVWDQFHFRVW
IURPDORFDWLRQRU
Ͳ 0HDVXUH WKH
UHTXLUHG DPRXQW RI
WLPHGLVWDQFHFRVW WR
UHDFK D IL[HG QXPEHU
RIRSSRUWXQLWLHV
ܣൌ σୀଵܤܱ
$L$FFHVVLELOLW\DWSRLQWL
WR SRWHQWLDO DFWLYLWLHV LQ
]RQHM
2MRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQ]RQHM
%M LI ]RQH M LV ZLWKLQ
WKH SUHGHWHUPLQHG
WKUHVKROG
%M LI ]RQH M LV RXWVLGH
WKHWKUHVKROG
3RWHQWLDO
DFFHVVLELOLW
\ PHDVXUH
RU JUDYLW\
PHDVXUH
9LFNHUPD Q
*HXUV DQG
:HH
Ͳ 6LPLODU WR WKH
FRQWRXU PHDVXUHV EXW
DFFRXQWIRUWKHFRVWWR
UHDFK WKH
RSSRUWXQLWLHV
Ͳ 0RUH GLVWDQW
RSSRUWXQLWLHV ZLOO EH
GLPLQLVKHG LQ
DWWUDFWLYHQHVV
ܣൌ ܱሺെߚܥሻ
ୀଵ
$L DFFHVVLELOLW\ LQ ]RQH L
WRDOORSSRUWXQLWLHVLQ]RQH
M&LMFRVWWRWUDYHOIURPLWR
Mȕ FRVW VHQVLWLYLW\
SDUDPHWHU QHHG WR EH
FKRVHQFDUHIXOO\
$GDSWHG
SRWHQWLDO
PHDVXUHV
6KHQ
YDQ
:HH
+DJRRUW HW
DO
&HUGD DQG
(O*HQHLG\
Ͳ &RPSHWLWLRQ DW
RULJLQV DQGRU DW
GHVWLQDWLRQV LV
LQFOXGHG
Ͳ 7KH HIIHFW RI
FRPSHWLWLRQ LV
H[SUHVVHG E\ GLYLGLQJ
WKH DYDLODEOH QXPEHU
RI RSSRUWXQLWLHV RI
]RQHLWRWKHGHPDQGV
RI]RQHL
ܣൌ ܱ݂൫ܥ൯ ܦ
ୀଵ
ܦൌ ݂ܲሺܥሻ
ୀଵ
$L DFFHVVLELOLW\ RI
ORFDWLRQL
2M RSSRUWXQLWLHV DW SRLQW
MI&LM LPSHGDQFH RI FRVW
IXQFWLRQIURPLWRM
'M GHPDQG IRU
RSSRUWXQLWLHV
3M QXPEHU RI SHRSOH LQ M
VHHNLQJIRURSSRUWXQLWLHV
3RWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHV
7KHWUDGLWLRQDOSRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHLVDORFDWLRQEDVHGPHDVXUHZKLFKKDV
EHHQXVHGPRVWLQOLWHUDWXUH7KHDFFHVVLELOLW\OHYHOLVDVVHVVHGZLWKLQDWUDYHOWLPH
RU WUDYHO FRVW WKUHVKROG RU D FRPELQDWLRQ DQG XVLQJ D VLQJOH WUDYHO PRGH
$WWUDFWLYHQHVV RI RSSRUWXQLWLHV ZLOO GHFUHDVH ZLWK ORQJHU GLVWDQFH RU KLJKHU WUDYHO
FRVW ,Q WKLV PHDVXUH WKHUH DUH DVVXPSWLRQV RQ WKH GHFUHDVLQJ OHYHO LPSHGDQFH
IXQFWLRQ RI RSSRUWXQLW\ DWWUDFWLYHQHVV 7KLV IXQFWLRQ ZLOO YDU\ DFFRUGLQJ WR
HFRQRP\WUDYHOKDELWDQGSHUFHSWLRQRIWKHRSSRUWXQLW\YDOXHLQHDFKUHJLRQ7KH
FRPPRQIXQFWLRQXVHGLVWKHQHJDWLYHH[SRQHQWLDOIXQFWLRQ7KHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQ
LVXVHGWRFDOFXODWHWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\OHYHORI]RQHL$L
%DODQFLQJ
IDFWRUV
FRPSHWLWLR QIDFWRUV
*HXUV DQG
5LWVHPD
YDQ (FN
Ͳ 7KH IORZ WR DQG
IURP D ]RQH HTXDOV WR
WKH QXPEHU RI
DFWLYLWLHVLQWKDW]RQH
Ͳ $FFRXQW IRU ERWK
FRPSHWLWLRQ DW
GHVWLQDWLRQV DQG
RULJLQV
ܣൌ ͳ
σୀଵܤܦ݂൫ܥ൯
ܤ ൌ ͳ
σୀଵܣܱ݂൫ܥ൯
$L %M EDODQFLQJ IDFWRUV
WKDW WUDQVIRUP WKH DFWLYLW\
XQLWVWRIORZXQLWV
2L'MQXPEHURIDFWLYLWLHV
LQ]RQHLDQGM
I&LM QHJDWLYH IXQFWLRQ I
UHIOHFWLQJ WKH LPSHGDQFH
WRWUDYHOIURPLWRM
3ODFHUDQN (O
*HQHLG\
DQG/HYLQVRQ
Ͳ (DFK ORFDWLRQV
ZLOOEHUDQNVEDVHGRQ
WKH QXPEHU RI SHRSOH
JRLQJWRLWWRUHDFKWKH
RSSRUWXQLWLHV
Ͳ %DVHG RQ WKH
IORZV EHWZHHQ RULJLQV
DQGGHVWLQDWLRQV
Ͳ $FFRXQW IRU WKH
QXPEHU RI
RSSRUWXQLWLHV WKDW
LQGLYLGXDOV SDVV RYHU
LQ D ]RQH WR UHDFK DQ
RSSRUWXQLW\ LQ DQRWKHU
]RQH
ܴǡ௧ൌ ܧכ ܲ௧ିଵ
ூ
ୀଵ
ܲ௧ିଵൌ ܧכ ሺܴǡ௧ିଵ ܧ ሻ
5MW SODFH UDQN RI M LQ
LWHUDWLRQW
, WRWDO QXPEHU RI L ]RQHV
WKDWOLQNWR]RQHM
(LM QXPEHU RI SHRSOH
OHDYLQJ L WR UHDFK DQ
RSSRUWXQLW\LQM
3LW WKH SRZHU RI HDFK
SHUVRQ OHDYLQJ L LQ WKH
SUHYLRXVLWHUDWLRQ
(MWKHRULJLQDOQXPEHURI
SHRSOHGHVWLQHGIRUM
5MW WKHSODFHUDQNLQJRI
M IURP WKH SUHYLRXV
LWHUDWLRQ
(LWKHRULJLQDOQXPEHURI
SHRSOHUHVLGLQJLQ]RQHL
ܣൌ σୀଵܱ݂ሺܥሻݎܣൌ σୀଵ்ைഀೕ(TXDWLRQ
:KHUH $LDFFHVVLELOLW\OHYHORI]RQHL
2MWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVDW]RQHM
I&LMLPSHGDQFHRUFRVWIXQFWLRQWRWUDYHOIURPLWRM
7WUDYHOWLPHIURPLWRMPLQXWHV
ĮFRHIILFLHQWGHSHQGLQJRQWKHUHDOWUDYHO
7KLVHTXDWLRQFDQEHDSSOLHGVHYHUDOWLPHVZLWKGLIIHUHQWWUDYHOPRGHV)RUH[DPSOH
DFFHVVLELOLW\WRMREVFDQEHFDOFXODWHGXVLQJFDUWUDLQEXVRUPRWRUF\FOH7KXVWKH
UHVXOWVWKHQFDQEHFRPSDUHGDQGHYDOXDWLRQIRUWKHHIIHFWLYHRIGLIIHUHQWPRGHVLV
ZLWKGUDZQ
/LPLWHG E\ DYDLODEOH VHFRQGDU\ GDWD WLPH DQG UHVRXUFHV LQ WKLV UHVHDUFK WKH
WUDGLWLRQDO SRWHQWLDO PHDVXUH ZLWK WUDYHO WLPH DV WKH FRVW IDFWRU LV DSSOLHG LQ WKLV
WKHVLV
$OWKRXJKWKHSRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHFDQUHIOHFWWKHVXSSO\RIRSSRUWXQLWLHV
RYHU VSDWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ LW GRHV QRW DFFRXQW IRU FRPSHWLWLRQ RI DYDLODEOH
RSSRUWXQLWLHV,QWKLVFDVHLWDVVXPHVWKDWWKHFRPSHWLWLRQZLOOQRWDIIHFWWKHOHYHORI
DWWUDFWLYHQHVV RU DFFHVVLELOLW\ OHYHO 7KLV GLVDGYDQWDJH FDQ EH WROHUDWHG LQ VRPH
RSSRUWXQLWLHVEXWQRWZLWKMREV7KDWLVZK\WKHQH[WSDUDJUDSKGLVFXVVHVWKHVDPH
PHDVXUHZLWKLQFOXVLRQRIFRPSHWLWLRQ
$FFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQ
)RU MRE DFFHVVLELOLW\ ZKLFK KDV WKH FRPSHWLWLRQ DW WKH GHVWLQDWLRQV DQGRU DW WKH
RULJLQV PDQ\ VWXGLHV LQFOXGH FRPSHWLWLRQ IDFWRUV WR DOWHU WKH UHVXOWV 9LFNHUPDQ
6KHQ 9DQ :HH HW DO $Q LPSHGDQFH IXQFWLRQ RU FRPSHWLWLRQ
IDFWRULVDGGHGWRWKHHTXDWLRQWROLPLW WKHRSSRUWXQLWLHV WKDWRQHFDQUHDFK7KLV
IDFWRU GHSHQGV RQ WKH HGXFDWLRQ EDFNJURXQG FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI MREV RU VSDWLDO
GLVWULEXWLRQ RI SHRSOH DQG RSSRUWXQLWLHV 2QH UHDVRQDEOH PHDVXUH LQFOXGLQJ
FRPSHWLWLRQIDFWRULVWKHDGDSWHGSRWHQWLDOPHDVXUHV6KHQ,QWKLVPHWKRGWKH
HIIHFWRIFRPSHWLWLRQDWGHVWLQDWLRQVLVH[SUHVVHGE\GLYLGLQJWKHDYDLODEOHQXPEHURI
RSSRUWXQLWLHV LQ D ]RQH WR WKH GHPDQGV UHDFKLQJ WKDW ]RQH 9DQ :HH YDQ :HH
+DJRRUWHWDOHQKDQFHGWKLVPHDVXUHE\LQWHJUDWLQJYROXPHFRPSRQHQWZLWK
WKHFRPSHWLWLRQFRPSRQHQWLQKLVHTXDWLRQ
ܣൌ ܸ݈ݑ݉݁ܿ݉݊݁݊ݐ ൈ ܿ݉݁ݐ݅ݐ݂݅݊ܽܿݐݎ
ܸ݈ݑ݉݁ܿ݉݊݁݊ݐ ൌ ܬܾݏ
ܶఈ
ୀଵ
ܥ݉݁ݐ݅ݐ݂݅݊ܽܿݐݎ ൌ σ ܦ݅ݒ݅ݏ݅݊ ൈ ܸ݈ݑ݉݁ܶ݅݉݁
σ ܸ݈ݑ݉݁ܶ݅݉݁
ܣሺܶ ൏ ܶ௫ሻ ൌ σ ሺ௦் ೕ
ೕഀ ൈσ ሺ
್ೞೖ
ಽೖൈಽೖ
ೕೖഀ
ೖసೖసభ ሻ σ ሺಽೖ
ೕೖഀ
ೖసೖసభ ሻ
ୀଵ ሻሺʹሻ
:KHUH$LDFFHVVLELOLW\RIMREVZLWKLQDFHUWDLQWLPH7PD[IURP]RQHL
M «QDOO]RQHVZLWKLQFHUWDLQWLPH7PD[IURP]RQHL
N «QDOO]RQHVZLWKLQFHUWDLQWLPH7PD[IURP]RQHM
-REVMQXPEHURIMREVLQ]RQHVM
/INWKHVL]HRIHPSOR\PHQWPDUNHWLQ]RQHNDFWLYHSRSXODWLRQ
7LMWUDYHOWLPHIURP]RQHLWR]RQHMPLQXWHV
ĮSDUDPHWHUIRUWKHGLVWDQFHIXQFWLRQ
:LWK WKHLU PHWKRG 9DQ :HH HW DO HQKDQFHG WKH H[LVWLQJ DGDSWHG SRWHQWLDO
PHDVXUHE\WDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWWKHLPSDFWVRIRWKHUMREVRQRWKHU]RQHVUHODWHGWR
WKHRULJLQDO]RQHL9LVXDOL]DWLRQRIWKLVPHWKRGLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKHIROORZLQJILJXUH
)LJXUH9LVXDOL]DWLRQRIDFFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQRI]RQHL
7KHDFFHVVLELOLW\RI]RQHLLVQRWRQO\DIIHFWHGE\QXPEHURIMREVDQGSRSXODWLRQLQ
]RQH M ZKLFK LV QH[W WR L EXW DOVR DIIHFWHG E\ QXPEHU RI MREV DQG SRSXODWLRQ LQ
]RQHVNOPDQGHWFHWHUD$VORQJDV]RQHVNOPDQGRWKHU]RQHVOLH ZLWKLQWKH
PD[LPXPWUDYHOFRVWIURP]RQHLLQWKLVFDVHLVWUDYHOWLPHRU7PD[WKH\ZLOOKDYH
LPSDFWVRQWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\RI]RQHL7KHPRUHMREVWKHVH]RQHVKDYHWKHPRUHMRE
DFFHVVLELOLW\WKDW]RQHLKDV,QDGYHUVHWKHPRUHZRUNLQJSHRSOHWKHVH]RQHVKDYH
WKHOHVVMREDFFHVVLELOLW\WKDW]RQHLKDV7UDYHOFRVWIURPHDFKRIWKHVH]RQHVWRL
ZLOODOVREHLPSRUWDQWIDFWRUZKLFKGHFLGHVWKHLQIOXHQFHRIWKHVH]RQHVRQ]RQHL
7KHFRPSHWLWLRQ IDFWRURID]RQH PHDVXUHVWKHUDWLRQEHWZHHQ ZHLJKWHGWRWDOMREV
DQGWKHZHLJKWHGWRWDOODERXUVRIWKHZKROHXUEDQDUHD%RWKWRWDOVDUHZHLJKWHGE\
WUDYHOWLPHWRWKDWSDUWLFXODU]RQH,QRWKHUZRUGVLWPHDVXUHVDVLWVQDPHVXJJHVWV
KRZFRPSHWLWLYHLWLVWRJHWDMREDWDSDUWLFXODUSRLQW,QWKHRU\WKHQXPEHURI]RQHV
WKDWFDQDIIHFW]RQHLLVXQOLPLWHGLIPD[LPXPWUDYHOFRVWLVLQILQLWH,QWKHHTXDWLRQ
6RXUFHYDQ:HH+DJRRUWHWDO
RI 9DQ :HH WKHVH LPSDFWV DUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH FRPSHWLWLRQ IDFWRU ,Q HDFK ]RQH
ZLWKLQWKHWUDYHOFRVWQXPEHURIMREVSHUZRUNLQJSHUVRQODERXUPDUNHWDQGWUDYHO
FRVWIURP]RQHLDUHGHWHUPLQDQWVRIFRPSHWLWLRQIDFWRURI]RQHL
2WKHUPHDVXUHVLQFOXGLQJFRPSHWLWLRQDUHEDODQFLQJIDFWRUVDQGSODFHUDQNPHDVXUH
7KHEDODQFLQJIDFWRUVPHDVXUHDVVXPHVWKDWWKHIORZWRDQGIURPD]RQHHTXDOVWR
WKHQXPEHURIDFWLYLWLHVLQWKDW]RQH*HXUVDQG5LWVHPDYDQ(FN(O*HQHLG\
DQG /HYLQVRQ GHYHORSHG WKH SODFH UDQN PHDVXUH (DFK ORFDWLRQ ZLOO EH
UDQNHGEDVHGRQWKHQXPEHURISHRSOHJRLQJWRLWWRUHDFKWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHV'HWDLOV
DQGHTXDWLRQVRIWKHVHPHWKRGVDUHGHVFULEHGDVLQ7DEOHDERYH
7R HQKDQFH WKH UHVXOW IURP WKH WUDGLWLRQDO SRWHQWLDO DFFHVVLELOLW\ PHDVXUH WKH
DFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQLQYHQWHGE\9DQ:HH+DJRRUWHWDO LVDSSOLHGLQWKLVUHVHDUFK%HVLGHVWKHQHHGWRLQFOXGHFRPSHWLWLRQLQDFFHVVLELOLW\
OHYHOVWRMREVWKHUHDUHDOVRVHYHUDOUHDVRQVIRUFKRRVLQJWKLVPHDVXUH)LUVWO\WKLV
PHDVXUHKDVLQFOXGHGWKHSRWHQWLDOPHDVXUHLQLWVHTXDWLRQ7KHUHIRUHLWLVHDVLHUWR
FRPSDUH WKH GLIIHUHQFH RI WKHVH WZR PHWKRGV 6HFRQGO\ WKLV PHWKRG LV OHVV WLPH
FRQVXPLQJ FRPSDULQJ WR RWKHU PHWKRGV VXFK DV EDODQFLQJ IDFWRUV RU SODFH UDQN
PHDVXUH/DVWEXWQRWOHDVWWKHGDWDUHTXLUHPHQWVRIWKLVPHWKRGDUHVXLWDEOHIRUWKH
VFRSHRIWKLVUHVHDUFK$YDLODEOHGDWDLVDOZD\VLPSRUWDQWIRUPRVWRIUHVHDUFKHV
,PSDFWVRIXUEDQIRUPRQWUDQVSRUWDQGDFFHVVLELOLW\
'LIIHUHQW XUEDQ IRUPV ZKHWKHU SRO\FHQWULF RU PRQRFHQWULF KDYH GLIIHUHQW
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQ GHQVLW\ JHRPHWULF VKDSH ODQG XVH DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH 7KH
LQGLFDWRUV WR DVVHVV WKH IXQFWLRQ RI XUEDQ IRUPV FDQ EH OLVWHG DV GHQVLW\
IUDJPHQWDWLRQDQGDFFHVVLELOLW\*UD]L)DELRHWDO
,PSDFWVRIXUEDQIRUPVRQWUDQVSRUWRUWUDYHOEHKDYLRXUDUHEDVHGRQWKHQRWLRQWKDW
WUDYHOLVDGHULYHGGHPDQG6FKHSHODQG=XLGJHHVW7KHVHLPSDFWVKDYHEHHQ
VWXGLHG WKURXJK LQGLFDWRUV IURP LQGLYLGXDO WR FLW\ RU UHJLRQ OHYHOV +RZHYHU WKH\
KDYH VWLOOEHHQ XQGHUFRQWURYHUV\6FKZDQHQ'LHOHPDQHWDO$OEHUWL
*UD]L)DELRHWDO0DMRULW\RI VWXGLHV ILQGDUHODWLRQEHWZHHQXUEDQIRUPV
DQG WUDYHO EHKDYLRXU 6RPH VWXGLHV SRLQWHG RXW WKDW WKH LPSDFWV DUH VPDOO 6RPH
RWKHU VWXGLHV PL[HG EHWZHHQ VWDWLVWLFDO FRUUHODWLRQ DQG FDXVDOLW\ RI XUEDQ IRUP RQ
WUDYHO *UD]L )DELR HW DO *HQHUDOO\ XUEDQ IRUP LV FRQFOXGHG WR KDYH
LPSDFWV RQ WUDYHO EHKDYLRXU WKURXJK LWV VSDWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI LPSRUWDQW DFWLYLWLHV
VXFKDVUHVLGHQFHVMREVDQGVKRSV2QHFDXWLRQVKRXOGEHQRWHGLVWKDWWKHFKDQJHV
LQXUEDQIRUPVLVJUDGXDOO\RYHUWLPHZKLOHRWKHUFKDQJHVLQHFRQRP\RUWUDQVSRUW
KDSSHQ ZLWK D PRUH UDSLG UDWH 7KXV LQ D PHDQ WLPH LPSDFWV RI XUEDQ IRUPV RQ
WUDQVSRUWDUHGLIILFXOWWRLGHQWLI\
6HYHUDOVWXGLHVKDYHEHHQGRQHRQLQIOXHQFHVRIXUEDQIRUPRQWUDYHOEHKDYLRXUDQG
KDG FRQFOXGHG ZLWK YDULDEOH IDFWRUV +DQG\ DQG 1LHPHLHU .LWDPXUD
0RNKWDULDQHWDO%RDUQHWDQG&UDQH&HUD,QJHQHUDOWKUHHPDLQ
IDFWRUVDUHLQFOXGLQJGHQVLW\RIGHYHORSPHQWPL[RIODQGXVHDQGORFDODFFHVVLELOLW\
WRSXEOLFWUDQVSRUW&HUYHUR6FKHSHODQG=XLGJHHVW
7KHGHQVLW\RIGHYHORSPHQWIDFWRULVGHDOLQJZLWKWUDYHOGLVWDQFH+LJKHUGHQVLW\RI
GHYHORSPHQW ZKLFK RIWHQ DSSHDUV LQ PRUH FRPSDFW XUEDQ IRUP FDQ UHGXFH WKH
WUDQVSRUWGLVWDQFHDQGWKHQXPEHURIWULSVPDGHE\LQGLYLGXDOVWRKRPHZRUNDQG
VHUYLFHDUHDV,QGHWDLOLQPRUHFRPSDFWXUEDQIRUPVRUPRQRFHQWULFIRUPSHRSOH
DUH OLNHO\ WR OLYH QHDU WKHLU GRZQWRZQ MREV :LOOLDPV 2(&' DQG (&07
*UD]L )DELR HW DO 0RUH FRPSDFW FLWLHV DOVR SURYLGH WKH SRSXODWLRQ
GHQVLW\KLJKHQRXJKWREXLOGWKHSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWV\VWHP&RQVHTXHQWO\PRUHSHRSOH
ZLOOXVHSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWZDONLQJRUF\FOLQJ,WLVDOVRH[SHFWHGWKDWSHRSOHLQPRUH
FRPSDFWXUEDQIRUPZLOOXVHOHVVSULYDWHFDULQRUGHUWRJHWULGRIFRQJHVWLRQZKLFK
FDQUHVXOWLQORZVSHHGKLJKWLPHORVVDQGKLJKFRVW,QDGGLWLRQSHRSOHFDQKDYH
PRUH YDULHW\ RI SRVVLEOH GHVWLQDWLRQV WKDW FDQ EH UHDFKHG ZLWKLQ D VDPH GLVWDQFH
7KLVFDQREYLRXVO\LQFUHDVHWKHRSSRUWXQLWLHVDFFHVVLELOLW\
0L[ RI ODQG XVH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQ XUEDQ IRUP UHODWHV WR LWV VSDWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI
DFWLYLWLHVWUDYHOGLVWDQFHDQGWUDYHOPRGHVDVDUHVXOW,QWKHUHVHDUFKRI&HUYHURLQ
QRQPRWRUL]HGWUDYHO PRGHVDSSHDUDVEHLQJLQIOXHQFHGWKH PRVWE\ PL[RI
ODQG XVH )RU H[DPSOH KDYLQJ JURFHU\ DQG FRQVXPHU VHUYLFH ZLWKLQ IHHW RI
GLVWDQFH ZLOOHQFRXUDJHSHRSOHWRFRPPXWHE\ PDVVWUDQVLWF\FOLQJDQG ZDONLQJ
+RZHYHU ZLWK WKH GLVWDQFH IURP IHHW WR PLOH SHRSOH RIWHQ XVH DXWR
FRPPXWLQJ IRU WKH SRVVLEOH UHDVRQ WR OLQN ZRUN DQG VKRS WULSV E\ FDU &HUYHUR
,Q WKH RWKHU ZRUGV SUHVHQFH DQG DEVHQFH RI QHLJKERXUKRRG VKRSV DQG
FRPPHUFLDOODQGXVHVFDQSUHGLFWSDUWLDOO\WKHXVHRIWUDQVSRUWPRGHVDQGSK\VLFDO
VHSDUDWLRQRIDFWLYLWLHVVXFKDVJRLQJWRZRUNKRPHVKRSSLQJDQGHQWHUWDLQPHQW
$QRWKHU IDFWRU WR DIIHFW WUDQVSRUW PRGH LV WKH SUR[LPLW\ WR SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW
.LWDPXUD 0RNKWDULDQ HW DO ,QFUHDVLQJ GLVWDQFH WR QHDUHVW UDLOZD\ VWDWLRQ
IRU H[DPSOH FDQ UHGXFH WKH FKRLFH RI XVLQJ WUDLQ DV WUDQVSRUW PRGH ,QFUHDVLQJ
GLVWDQFHWREXVVWRSFDQLQFUHDVHQXPEHURIFDUMRXUQH\V7KHJHRJUDSKLFDOORFDWLRQV
RIZRUNSODFHDOVRKDYHLPSDFWVRQWKHFKRLFHRIWUDQVSRUWPRGHV6XVLORDQG0DDW
0DQDXJK 0LUDQGD0RUHQR HW DO ,I WKH ZRUNSODFH RI D FRPSDQ\ LV
QHDUHUWRSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWWHUPLQDOLWVHPSOR\HHVWHQGWRXVHPRUHSXEOLFWUDQVSRUW
DVFRPPXWLQJPRGHWRZRUN
,QVXPPDU\WKHUHLVDOLQNEHWZHHQXUEDQIRUPFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGWUDYHOSDWWHUQV
0RUH FRPSDFW FLWLHV VHHPV WR EULQJ OHVV WUDYHO GLVWDQFHV PRUH XVH RI SXEOLF
WUDQVSRUWDQGKHQFHPRUHVXVWDLQDEOHWUDQVSRUWRSWLRQ+RZHYHUVRPHUHVHDUFKHUV
FODLP WKDW WKHVH ILQGLQJV DUH WKH UHVXOWV RI RYHUVLPSOLILFDWLRQ RI FRPSOH[ WUDYHO
EHKDYLRXUV HVSHFLDOO\ IRU WKH ZRUNLQJ SXUSRVH 0RUHRYHU WKHUH DUH VWLOO ILQGLQJV
WKDWFRPPXWLQJGLVWDQFHSHUSHUVRQPD\QRWLQFUHDVHEHFDXVHRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI
SRO\FHQWULF XUEDQ VWUXFWXUHV 2WKHUZLVH LW FDQ EH UHODWLYHO\ VPDOO LQ VRPH XUEDQ
DUHDV 6FKZDQHQ 'LHOHPDQ HW DO $QRWKHU GLIILFXOW\ LV WR LGHQWLI\ WKH
FRPSDFWOHYHOZLWKLQWKDWWKHFLW\WUDQVSRUWLVVXVWDLQDEOH2QHRSWLRQIRUWKLVLVWR
GHYHORSFLW\FRUULGRUVDQGPXOWLFHQWUHGFLWLHVZKLFKFDQEDODQFHWKHGHQVLW\DQGWKH
VXVWDLQDELOLW\
7R XQGHUVWDQG PRUH DERXW WKH LPSDFWV RI XUEDQ IRUPV RQ VXVWDLQDEOH WUDQVSRUW RU
DFFHVVLELOLW\ WKLV UHVHDUFK ZLOO HYDOXDWH WKH UHVXOWV RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ LQ SUHVHQW
FRQGLWLRQVDQGLQDVVXPHGVFHQDULRV
&+$37(5
$&&(66,%,/,7<(9$/8$7,21)2535,9$7($1'
38%/,&75$163257,15$1'67$'$1'+$12,
0HWKRGRORJ\GDWDVRXUFHDQGDVVXPSWLRQV
0HWKRGRORJ\
,QWKLVFKDSWHUWZRDFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHVDUHDSSOLHGWR+DQRLDQG5DQGVWDGLQWKHLU
FXUUHQWVLWXDWLRQ)LUVWWKHSRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHDQGWKHQWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\
PHDVXUHFRUUHFWHGZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQDVH[SODLQHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQZLWKWKH
PHWKRGRI9DQ:HHHWDODUHLPSOHPHQWHG7KHVHWZRPHWKRGVDUHPDLQO\
FKRVHQ EHFDXVH WKH EDODQFH RI DYDLODEOH GDWD DQG WKH TXDOLW\ RI UHVXOWV DLPHG IRU
7KHREMHFWLYHLVWZRIROG)LUVWO\SRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHVZLOOEHWHVWHGIRU
WZRWUDQVSRUWPRGHVFDUDQGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWIRU5DQGVWDGDQGPRWRUF\FOHDQGEXV
IRU +DQRL HQDEOLQJ FRPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ WKHVH FRXSOHV RI WZR PRGHV 6HFRQGO\
DFFHVVLELOLW\ PHDVXUH FRUUHFWHG ZLWK FRPSHWLWLRQ LV DSSOLHG WR DOWHU WKH UHVXOW
&RPSDULVRQRIQHZUHVXOWVWRWKHWUDGLWLRQDOSRWHQWLDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHZLOODOVR
EHLQYHVWLJDWHG
)RUWUDGLWLRQDODFFHVVLELOLW\PHDVXUHWKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQLVDSSOLHG
ܣൌ σୀଵܱ݂ሺܥሻݎܣൌ σୀଵ்ைഀೕ(TXDWLRQ
)RUDFFHVVLELOLW\ZLWKFRPSHWLWLRQWKHIROORZLQJHTXDWLRQRI9DQ:HHLV
XVHG
ܣሺܶ ൏ ܶ୫ୟ୶ሻ ൌ σ ሺ௦் ೕ
ೕഀ ൈσ ሺ
್ೞೖ
ಽೖൈಽೖ
ೕೖഀ
ೖసೖసభ ሻ σ ሺಽೖ
ೕೖഀ
ೖసೖసభ ሻ
ୀଵ ሻ(TXDWLRQ
)RUPRUHGHWDLOHGH[SODQDWLRQSOHDVHUHIHUWRWKHSUHYLRXVFKDSWHU
7KHLPSHGDQFHIXQFWLRQ݂ሺܥሻUHSUHVHQWVWKHGHJUHHWRZKLFK]RQHLLVDWWUDFWHGE\
RWKHU]RQHVEDVLQJRQWKHWUDYHOWLPHRUFRVW,QWKHHTXDWLRQLPSHGDQFHIXQFWLRQRI
WUDYHO WLPH GHSHQGV RQ WKH DFWXDO WULS PRGHV WULS SXUSRVHV DQG KRXVHKROG
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VXFK DV JHQGHU DJH LQFRPH DQG HGXFDWLRQDO OHYHO *HXUV
%HFDXVH RI LWV FRPSOH[ QDWXUH WKH FKRLFH DQG LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WUDYHO WLPH
LPSHGDQFH LQ WKHVH HTXDWLRQV DUH VWLOO XQGHU UHVHDUFK 7KH IRUP RI LPSHGDQFH
IXQFWLRQ LV YDULHG IURP VLPSOH LQYHUVHO\ OLQHDU UHJUHVVLRQ WR PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG
QHJDWLYH H[SRQHQWLDO IXQFWLRQ RU ORJLVWLF IXQFWLRQ YDQ :HH +DJRRUW HW DO
*HXUVDQG:HH(O*HQHLG\DQG/HYLQVRQ6RPHUHVHDUFKHUVDOVRWHVWHG
DFFHVVLELOLW\ OHYHO XVLQJ GLIIHUHQW LPSHGDQFH IXQFWLRQV IRU WKHLU VWXG\ DUHDV (O
*HQHLG\DQG/HYLQVRQ*HXUV
)LJXUH,PSHGDQFHIXQFWLRQVDOOPRGHVDQGDOOWULSSXUSRVHVWDNHQWRJHWKHU ,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWFRPSDULVRQRIDFFHVVLELOLW\ZKLFKLVWKHPDLQJRDORIWKLV
UHVHDUFK VKRXOG EH GRQH LQ D UHODWLYH PDQQHU DQG QRW WR FRPSDUH WKH QXPEHUV
GLUHFWO\7KXVLQWKLVUHVHDUFKWRHDVLO\LGHQWLI\KRZWKHFRPSHWLWLRQIDFWRUDOWHUV
WKH UHVXOWV WKH LPSHGDQFH IXQFWLRQ RI WLPH LV WKH VDPH IRU WKH WZR PHWKRGV WKH
YDOXHVRIMREVODERXUVZLOOGHFUHDVHZLWKĮSRZHURIWLPH7KLVNLQGRIUHFLSURFDORI
Į SRZHU RI WUDYHO WLPH LPSHGDQFH IXQFWLRQ ZHUH XVHG LQ VRPH UHVHDUFKHV VXFK DV
*HXUVDQG(O*HQHLG\DQG/HYLQVRQ7KHFKRLFHRIWKLVIXQFWLRQKHUH
LVGXHWRLWVVLPSOLFLW\DQGODFNLQJRIDFWXDOWUDYHOEHKDYLRXUGDWDWRHVWLPDWHWKHUHDO
LPSHGDQFHIXQFWLRQV$OWKRXJKWKLVIXQFWLRQLVFUXGHDQGVLPSOLILHGLWFDQLQFOXGH
WKHLPSDFWVRIWUDYHOWLPHRUFRVWRQWKHHPSOR\PHQWPDUNHWDQGLWLVVXLWDEOHIRUWKH
JRDO RI WKLV UHVHDUFK WR FRPSDUH DFFHVVLELOLW\ OHYHOV E\ GLIIHUHQW WUDQVSRUW PRGHV
DQGDIIHFWHGE\GLIIHUHQWXUEDQIRUPV
)RU WKH FKRVHQ H[SRQHQWLDO LPSHGDQFH IXQFWLRQ HVWLPDWLQJ WKH Į LV UDWKHU
FRPSOLFDWHGDQGUHTXLUHVVHYHUDOWULDOV7KHĮYDOXHUHSUHVHQWVWKHGHJUHHWRZKLFK
SHRSOHLQRQH]RQHSUHIHUWRZRUNQHDUWKHLUKRPH7ZRH[WUHPHFDVHVRIĮYDOXHV
DUH]HURDQGLQILQLW\,IĮHTXDOV]HURSHRSOHFDQZRUNHYHU\ZKHUH,QDGYHUVHLIĮ
UHDFKHV LQILQLW\ SHRSOH LQ ]RQH L ZLOO RQO\ DFFHSW WR ZRUN LQ WKHLU ]RQH %HFDXVH
SHRSOH LQ 5DQGVWDG KDYH PLQXWHV DV PHDQ WUDYHO WLPH WR ZRUN 6WDWLVWLFV
1HWKHUODQGV&%6DQGSHRSOHLQ+DQRLWUDYHOWRZRUNZLWKPLQXWHVDV
DYHUDJH$/0(&&RUSRUDWLRQ1LSSRQ.RHL&RHWDOWKHWUDYHOWLPHGHFD\
FXUYH LV IDVWHU IRU +DQRL $VVXPSWLRQV RQ Į YDOXHV DUH IRU +DQRL DQG IRU
5DQGVWDG WR UHSUHVHQW WKH DYHUDJH WUDYHO WLPH 7KH FKRVHQ Į YDOXHV DUH WKXV RQO\
Ϭ Ϭ͘ϱ ϭ
Ϭ ϱϬ ϭϬϬ
:ŽďǀĂůƵĞ
dŝŵĞ;ŵŝŶͿ
>ŝŶĞĂƌƚƌĂǀĞůƚŝŵĞĚĞĐĂLJĐƵƌǀĞ
Ϭ Ϭ͘ϬϬϭ Ϭ͘ϬϬϮ Ϭ͘ϬϬϯ
Ϭ ϭϬϬ
:ŽďǀĂůƵĞ
dŝŵĞ;ŵŝŶͿ dƌĂǀĞůƚŝŵĞĚĞĐĂLJĐƵƌǀĞϭͬd
Ϭ Ϭ͘Ϯ Ϭ͘ϰ
Ϭ ϭϬϬ
:ŽďǀĂůƵĞ
dŝŵĞ;ŵŝŶͿ dƌĂǀĞůƚŝŵĞĚĞĐĂLJĐƵƌǀĞǁŝƚŚŶĞŐĂƚŝǀĞ
ĞdžƉŽŶĞŶƚŝĂůĨƵŶĐƚŝŽŶ
Ϭ Ϭ͘Ϯ Ϭ͘ϰ
Ϭ ϭϬϬ
:ŽďǀĂůƵĞ
dŝŵĞ;ŵŝŶͿ dƌĂǀĞůƚŝŵĞĚĞĐĂLJĐƵƌǀĞϭͬůŶ;dͿ
EDVHGRQDYHUDJHWUDYHOWLPH7KHUHIRUHFDUHPXVWEHWDNHQ ZKHQLQWHUSUHWLQJWKH
UHVXOWV)ROORZLQJDUHWKHJUDSKVRIDVVXPHGĮYDOXHVIRUWKHDERYHHTXDWLRQV
)LJXUH7UDYHOWLPHGHFD\FXUYHIRU5DQGVWDG
)LJXUH7UDYHOWLPHGHFD\FXUYHIRU+DQRL
Ϭ Ϭ͘ϭ Ϭ͘Ϯ Ϭ͘ϯ Ϭ͘ϰ Ϭ͘ϱ Ϭ͘ϲ
Ϭ ϮϬ ϰϬ ϲϬ ϴϬ ϭϬϬ ϭϮϬ ϭϰϬ
:ŽďǀĂůƵĞ
dŝŵĞ;ŵŝŶͿ
dƌĂǀĞůƚŝŵĞĚĞĐĂLJĐƵƌǀĞĨŽƌZĂŶĚƐƚĂĚ
Ϭ Ϭ͘ϭ Ϭ͘Ϯ Ϭ͘ϯ Ϭ͘ϰ Ϭ͘ϱ
Ϭ ϮϬ ϰϬ ϲϬ ϴϬ ϭϬϬ ϭϮϬ ϭϰϬ
:ŽďǀĂůƵĞ
dŝŵĞ;ŵŝŶͿ
dƌĂǀĞůƚŝŵĞĚĞĐĂLJĐƵƌǀĞĨŽƌ,ĂŶŽŝ
'DWDDQGDVVXPSWLRQV
'DWD IRU WKLV WKHVLV LV OLVWHG LQ 7DEOH DV EHORZ $V GLVFXVVHG LQ WKH VWXG\ DUHDV
FKDSWHUFDUDQGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWDFFRXQWVIRUPRUHWKDQSHUFHQWRIWUDQVSRUWLQ
5DQGVWDGZKLOHEXVHVDQGPRWRUF\FOHVDFFRXQWIRUPRUHWKDQSHUFHQWRIYHKLFOHV
LQ +DQRL 7KHUHIRUH WKH UHVHDUFK XVH WKHVH WUDQVSRUW PRGHV DV UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV IRU
SXEOLF DQG SULYDWH WUDQVSRUW LQ WKHVH WZR VWXG\ DUHDV -RE DFFHVVLELOLW\ OHYHOV DUH
FDOFXODWHGIRUHDFKWUDQVSRUWPRGHLQHDFKVWXG\DUHDXVLQJWKHGDWDJLYHQ
7DEOH'DWDVRXUFH
5HJLRQ 'DWD 6RXUFH 7\SH
5DQGVWDG $GPLQLVWUDWLYH
ERXQGDU\ 6WDWLVWLFV1HWKHUODQGV&%6
6HFRQGDU\
7UDYHOPDWULFHV *RXGDSSHO&RIIHQJDQG
7UDQVXPR 6HFRQGDU\
3RSXODWLRQ 6WDWLVWLFV1HWKHUODQGV&%6
6HFRQGDU\
(PSOR\PHQW 8QNQRZQ 6HFRQGDU\
+DQRL $GPLQLVWUDWLYH
ERXQGDU\ ',9$*,6 6HFRQGDU\
5RDGQHWZRUN
Ͳ 2OG+DQRL
DUHD
Ͳ 1HZ
+DQRL
1JX\HQ=XLGJHHVWHWDO
'LJLWL]HG
6HFRQGDU\
3ULPDU\
%XVQHWZRUN 'LJLWL]HG 3ULPDU\
3RSXODWLRQ 9LHWQDPHVH0LQLVWU\RI
1DWXUDO5HVRXUFHVDQG
(QYLURQPHQW
6HFRQGDU\
(PSOR\PHQW +DQRL6WDWLVWLFDO2IILFH
6HFRQGDU\
,QDGGLWLRQWRGDWDSURYLGHGDFFHVVLELOLW\OHYHOVRI7$=VLQ5DQGVWDGDQG+DQRLLV
FDOFXODWHGZLWKVHYHUDODVVXPSWLRQV