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Climate Prediction Center’s Central Asia Hazards Outlook July 28 – August 3, 2016

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Climate Prediction Center’s Central Asia Hazards Outlook July 28 – August 3, 2016

Temperatures:

During the middle of July, slightly above-average temperatures (30-35 degrees Celsius) were observed across many western portions of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran, with slightly below-normal temperatures observed in central and eastern Kazakhstan. For the end of July, temperatures are forecast to become cooler in the western portion of the Central Asia domain and warmer towards the east with maximum daytime temperatures expected to exceed 35 degrees across portions of eastern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and over 40 degrees over parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Precipitation

Favorable and well distributed seasonal rainfall were received across much of northern Kazakhstan, with the highest amounts (>50mm) registered over the Akmola province during the last seven days. Further south, another week of moderate to heavy precipitation was observed over northern Pakistan, with lesser and suppressed amounts continuing over central portions of the country.

Since late June, both the quantity and distribution of seasonal rainfall has improved throughout northern Central Asia, seasonal moisture deficits have persisted across many parts of Pakistan. Precipitation models suggest the potential for another week of enhanced rainfall over northern Kazakhstan, with average to below-average rainfall over Pakistan, elevating concerns for abnormal dryness and adverse ground impacts.

Note: The Hazards outlook map is based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week), and assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.

Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.

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