Climate Prediction Center’s Central Asia Hazards Outlook October 20 - 26, 2016
Temperatures:
A negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) contributed towards below-normal temperatures (1 to 7 degrees C) across Kazakhstan during early to mid- October. Near to slightly above-normal temperatures were observed across the remainder of the region during the first two weeks of October. Since the AO index is forecast to remain negative during the next week, below-normal temperatures are likely to continue across Kazakhstan and extend as far south as Kyrgyzstan. An abnormal cold hazard is posted for northeast Kazakhstan where minimum temperatures are forecast to fall below -10 degrees C which is 4 to 8 degrees C below normal for this time of year. Although minimum temperatures are also likely to fall below -10 degrees C across the higher elevations of northeast Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, these temperatures are not as anomalous for those areas.
Precipitation
Widespread precipitation (locally more than 25 mm) fell throughout eastern Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan for the second consecutive week, while dry weather persisted farther south across northeast Afghanistan. The 30-day CPC unified gauge analysis indicates that precipitation has averaged slightly below normal across northeast Afghanistan. If precipitation does not develop across this region by early November, an abnormal dryness polygon will be considered.
During the next week, additional precipitation is forecast across the eastern half of Kazakhstan. A heavy snow hazard is posted for the higher elevations of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan where the GFS model indicates precipitation amounts exceed 25 mm (liquid equivalent) during the next week.
Note: The Hazards outlook map is based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week), and assesses their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.
