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Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook October 08 – 14, 2020

Heavy rains are causing negative impacts for many Pacific-facing portions of the region.

1) Below-normal rainfall over the past few months, as much as 50% of normal, has led to struggling vegetation health and abnormal dryness across Belize.

2) Recent heavy rains on saturated ground have already led to observed flooding and landslides in many pacific facing regions of Central America. Recent heavy rains in Huehuetenango, Quiche, and Alta Verapaz, departments of Guatemala have caused similar issues and led authorities to open a hydroelectric dam. Forecasted additional heavy rains this week will keep the risk high.

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Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.

Rainfall is forecast to be enhanced for a large portion of the region this week.

During the past week, very heavy rainfall (100-200mm) has been registered over areas in Guatemala, southern Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Several reports of flooding have come out of Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador as a result. Heavy rainfall greater than 75mm has also been observed in west-central Guatemala, eastern Nicaragua, and portions of Costa Rica and Panama. In contrast, light rainfall has been recorded over some areas of Belize, central/eastern Guatemala, and parts of Honduras. Significant 30- day rainfall deficits (50-100+mm) are apparent throughout Belize and around the Gulf of Belize, as well as 90-day performance that is as little as 50% of normal. This correlates with mediocre vegetation conditions observed over the same areas. Rainfall deficits are also observed in southeastern Nicaragua, but good frequency of rain days mean that vegetation degradation is not yet evident.

A broad area of enhanced rainfall is forecasted in the region this week. Heavy rainfall of potentially more than 100mm is expected over the southern areas of Guatemala and Honduras, western Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Flooding is likely over the often already rain- saturated areas. Lighter than normal rains are forecast to continue for Belize and parts of northern Honduras.

Week 1 Rainfall Total Forecast and CMORPH Climatology (mm) October 08 – October 14, 2020

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC

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