Africa Briefing Africa Briefing
15 February 2011
Nick Novella Nick Novella
Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov
7 Day
30 Day
Last Week This Week
2 consecutive weeks of below- average rainfall
Seasonal impact of 2-week dry spell
Permanent crop wilting in NE
Tropical Cyclone: “Bingiza”
Past 4 days :
- Reached cat 3 status by Sun (2/13) - Min SFC P: 983mb
- Max sustained winds 100kts
- Center of Low made landfall over Bay of Antongil, with max winds at 83kts
- Prelim reports: Northern Mananara district most affected large damages to infrastructure.
Currently:
- Tropical Depression status - 180nm NNW of Antananarivo - Sustained winds 35kts (45kts)
- Deep convection developing west over Moz Channel.
- Expected to intensity to 55kts in next 36hr as low moves offshore.
81mm
220mm
167mm
224mm
As Bingiza becomes extra-tropical by this weekend,
decreased winds and moisture looks to suppress
rainfall throughout much of the south
Note: GFS didn’t perform well with track and intensity of Bingiza, so re-strengthening over Moz. Channel not entirely ruled out.
