Africa Briefing Africa Briefing
22 February 2011
Nick Novella Nick Novella
Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov
Nicholas.Novella@noaa.gov
What a difference makes with 3 weeks of little to no rains.
7 Day
30 Day
Last Week This Week
3 consecutive weeks of below- average rainfall
30-day anomaly as of Feb-1
850mb Height Anomaly Feb 1 – Feb 19, 2011 700mb Wind Anomaly Feb 1 – Feb 19, 2011
925mb PW Feb 1 – Feb 19, 2011 200mb Height Anomaly Feb 1 – Feb 19, 2011
UL Cyclonic Circulation
Seasonal impact of 3-week dry spell
Some Maize crops reached permanent wilting
C Zim: Danger of wilting, if rains do not return soon.
Character of rainfall in Maize Triangle different than dry spell affecting areas to the north - 2 dryness patterns?
Character of rainfall similar to that in Zim and Moz: little to no observed rains since Feb 1
Recent recovery of Tanzania rainfall associated with increased moisture from Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone: “Bingiza”
Impacts:
- Numerous flooding
- Damages to infrastructure and crops - Thousands displaced, several fatalities - Expect large losses to May yields
- TC landfall in Feb has greater impacts on food security than Jan.
- Most affected districts:Antalaha, Maroantsetra,
Mananara North, and Antsohihy
Expanding Mediocre conditions.
Timing is Key…
Source of crop data: SAGE data, Univ of Wisc, 2010 Seasonal Progression during Feb: Maize Seasonal Progression during Feb: MilletSeasonal Progression during Feb: Sorghum 30-Day RFE Anomaly
AC
30-Day RFE Anomaly
