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January 26

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Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook January 26 – February 1, 2017

Frosts and freezes likely to persist for the higher elevations of Guatemala

1) A chilly air mass will remain over the region into the next week. As a result, minimum temperatures are likely to dip below freezing in the higher elevations of Guatemala leading to frosts and freezes that may adversely impact vegetation.

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Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.

Quiet period continues with scattered light rain showers, mainly along the Caribbean coasts

Most of Central America remained dry during the last 7 days. Satellites observed a few light showers over immediate coastal areas of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize. Observed amounts were generally very light. A few showers were observed in western Nicaragua and southern Guatemala as well. Over the course of the past 30 days, positive anomalies in excess of 100mm still persist over eastern Nicaragua with lesser values over coastal Honduras and Belize. These anomalies are trending towards zero after several weeks of very seasonable patterns. Vegetation indices currently show positive vegetative conditions for most everyone. The few scattered, localized areas of poorer values are not cause for concern.

Looking ahead to the next outlook period, precipitation models suggest that the current weather pattern could transition to wetter conditions.

Moderate rains will be most likely along the Caribbean coasts with lighter rains pushing farther inland. Areas in eastern Nicaragua, Belize and northern Guatemala could see more rain than average, with amounts possibly exceeding 25mm. Like last week, minimum temperatures will remain cooler than normal for northern Central America. Minimum temperatures should dip below the freezing mark in the higher elevations of southwestern Guatemala. Freezes may adversely affect vegetation.

Week 1 Rainfall Total Forecast and CMORPH climatology (mm) January 26 – February 1, 2016

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC

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