• No results found

Effecten van een compacte verstedelijkings-variant op mobiliteit, bereikbaarheid, CO2-emissie en geluid

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Effecten van een compacte verstedelijkings-variant op mobiliteit, bereikbaarheid, CO2-emissie en geluid"

Copied!
79
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)

UHVHDUFKIRU PDQDQGHQYLURQPHQW

5,-.6,167,7887922592/.6*(=21'+(,'(10,/,(8

1$7,21$/,167,787(2)38%/,&+($/7+$1'7+((19,5210(17

5,90UDSSRUW

Effecten van een compacte verstedelijkings-variant op mobiliteit, bereikbaarheid,

CO2-emissie en geluid

K.T. Geurs, J.R. Ritsema van Eck*)

DXJXVWXV

'LWRQGHU]RHNZHUGYHUULFKWLQRSGUDFKWHQWHQODVWHYDQ'LUHFWRUDDW*HQHUDDO0LOLHXEHKHHU LQ KHWNDGHUYDQSURMHFW2PJHYLQJVHIIHFWHQWRHWV

5,903RVWEXV%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHIRRQID[

(2)
(3)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

$EVWUDFW

7KHFRPSDFWXUEDQLVDWLRQVFHQDULRIRUWUHQGVLQKRXVLQJHPSOR\PHQWDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHKDV EHHQGHYHORSHGLQWKHFRQWH[WRISUHSDUDWLRQVIRUWKH'XWFKµ)LIWK6SDWLDO3ODQQLQJ3ODQ¶WR EH LVVXHG LQ  7KH VFHQDULR LV EDVHG RQ WKH PRGHOOLQJ RI KLVWRULFDO WUHQGV DQG RQ DVVXPSWLRQVSHUWDLQLQJWRWKHHIIHFWVRIFXUUHQWVSDWLDOSODQQLQJSROLFLHV7KHUHSRUWGHVFULEHV WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH XUEDQLVDWLRQ VFHQDULR RQ SDVVHQJHU PRELOLW\ MRE DQG SRSXODWLRQ DFFHVVLELOLW\ E\ FDU DQG SXEOLF WUDQVSRUW &2 HPLVVLRQV DQG QRLVH IURP FDU WUDIILF IRU WKH

1HWKHUODQGVIRUWKH±SHULRG7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWFRQFOXVLRQVDUH

œ 3DVVHQJHUPRELOLW\LQWKH1HWKHUODQGVZLOOLQFUHDVHE\DERXWLQWKH SHULRGZKHUHDVFDUXVHZLOOLQFUHDVHE\DERXW

œ &2 HPLVVLRQV IURP FDU WUDIILF ZLOO LQFUHDVH E\ DERXW  IXHO HIILFLHQF\

LPSURYHPHQWVZLOOUHYHUVHPXFKRIWKH&2HPLVVLRQLQFUHDVH

œ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œ 1RLVHHPLVVLRQVIURPFDUWUDIILFUDLOWUDIILFDQGDLUFUDIWZLOOLQFUHDVHVLJQLILFDQWO\$VD UHVXOWWKHSHUFHQWDJHRI'XWFKWHUULWRU\ZLWKDQRLVHOHYHODERYHG% $ LQFUHDVHVE\ DERXW WKHQXPEHURILQKDELWDQWVH[SHULHQFLQJDQRXWGRRUQRLVHOHYHORIPRUHWKDQ  G% $ LQFUHDVHVE\DERXWDQGWKHVXUIDFHDUHD FRQVWLWXWLQJTXLHW]RQHVZLWKD QRLVH OHYHORIPRUHWKDQG % $LQFUHDVHVE\DERXW

(4)
(5)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

9RRUZRRUG

'LW UDSSRUW EHVFKULMIW GH HIIHFWHQ YDQ HHQ FRPSDFWH YHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQW RS SHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLWEHUHLNEDDUKHLG&2HPLVVLHVHQJHOXLGYRRUGHSHULRGH]RDOV

GRRU KHW 5,90 RQWZLNNHOG LQ KHW NDGHU YDQ GH ZHWHQVFKDSSHOLMN RQGHUERXZLQJ YDQ GH 9LMIGH1RWD5XLPWHOLMNH2UGHQLQJ,QGHFRPSDFWHYHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQWLVXLWJHJDDQYDQ KHWKXLGLJHYLJHUHQGHUXLPWHOLMNHEHOHLGGH $F 9LQH[HQGHUXLPWHOLMNHRQWZLNNHOLQJYRRU ZRQHQ HQZHUNHQXLWKHWYHUOHGHQ SHULRGH 'H]HYHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQWZRUGW JH]LHQ DOV HHQ UHIHUHQWLHVFHQDULR ZDDUWHJHQ DOWHUQDWLHYH YHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQWHQ HQ GH HIIHFWHQ YDQ UXLPWHOLMN EHOHLG XLW GH 9LMIGH 1RWD 5XLPWHOLMNH 2UGHQLQJ DIJH]HW NXQQHQ ZRUGHQ

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µ:RQHQ HQ ZHUNHQ UXLPWHOLMN YHUNHQG¶ *RHWJHOXN HW DO   LV LQ GLW UDSSRUW QLHW PHHJHQRPHQ 'H LQ GLW UDSSRUW EHVFKUHYHQ UHVXOWDWHQPRHWHQGHUKDOYHDOVLQGLFDWLHIZRUGHQEHVFKRXZG'HHIIHFWEHUHNHQLQJHQYDQGH GHILQLWLHYHYHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQWZRUGHQVHSDUDDWJHUDSSRUWHHUG

'H DXWHXUV GDQNHQ GH $GYLHVGLHQVW 9HUNHHU HQ 9HUYRHU $99  YRRU KHW WHU EHVFKLNNLQJ VWHOOHQYDQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHUHVXOWDWHQXLWKHW/DQGHOLMN0RGHOV\VWHHP /06 9HUGHUZRUGW &RHQ6FKLOGHUPDQ 5,90 EHGDQNWYRRUGHYHOH*,6ZHUN]DDPKHGHQHQ:LOOHP+RIIPDQV 5,90  YRRU KHW XLWYRHUHQ YDQ GH JHOXLGEHUHNHQLQJHQ 7HQVORWWH ZRUGHQ %HUW YDQ :HH +DQV1LMODQG 5,90 HQ-DQYDQGHU:DDUG $99 EHGDQNWYRRUKXQFRPPHQWDDURSHHQ HHUGHUHYHUVLHYDQGLWUDSSRUW

.DUVW*HXUV 5,90WHOHPDLONDUVWJHXUV#ULYPQO

(6)
(7)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

,QKRXG

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sOHEHUHLNEDDUKHLG0V$FFHVV$UF,QIR   ,QWURGXFWLH   8LWZHUNLQJEHUHLNEDDUKHLGVSRWHQWLDDO   &RPSRQHQWHQLQGHSRWHQWLsOHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGVPDDW   7RHSDVVLQJYDQ0V$FFHVVHQ$UF,QIR   3URJQRVHJHOXLGEHODVWLQJ/DQGHOLMN%HHOG9HUVWRULQJ   3HUVRQHQPRELOLWHLWHQHPLVVLHV   ,QOHLGLQJ   3URJQRVHSHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW   2QWZLNNHOLQJSHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW   ,QYORHGYDQUXLPWHOLMNHRQWZLNNHOLQJHQRSGHSHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW   3URJQRVH&2HPLVVLH   &RQFOXVLHV   3RWHQWLsOHEHUHLNEDDUKHLG   $OJHPHQHEHHOGYRRU1HGHUODQG 

(8)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW  5XLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJYDQEHUHLNEDDUKHLG   %HUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHUDXWR   &RPSRQHQWHQLQGHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGSHUDXWR  %HUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHURSHQEDDUYHUYRHU   &RPSRQHQWHQLQGHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGSHU29   9HUJHOLMNLQJEHUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQDXWR29   %HUHLNEDDUKHLGEHURHSVEHYRONLQJSHUDXWRHQ29   9HUJHOLMNLQJYDQGHJHRJUDILVFKHHQYHUNHHUVNXQGLJHEHQDGHULQJYDQEHUHLNEDDUKHLG   &RQFOXVLHV   *HOXLGEHODVWLQJ   ,QOHLGLQJ   *HOXLGEHODVWRSSHUYODNLQ1HGHUODQG   %ORRWVWHOOLQJDDQJHOXLGEHODVWLQJ   *HOXLGEHODVWLQJLQVWLOWHJHELHGHQ   &RQFOXVLHV  /LWHUDWXXU  %LMODJH9HU]HQGOLMVW 

/LMVWYDQILJXUHQ

)LJXXU 6FKHPDWLVFKHZHHUJDYHPHWKRGLHN  )LJXXU $IVWDQGJHYRHOLJKHLGYRRUZRRQZHUNZRRQZLQNHOVRFLDOHHQ]DNHOLMNH YHUSODDWVLQJHQ 

)LJXXU 2QWZLNNHOLQJ&2HPLVVLHYDQSHUVRQHQDXWR¶VLQGHSHULRGHLQ

(&HQ*&  )LJXXU 2QWZLNNHOLQJDUEHLGVSODDWVHQUHLVWLMGHQHQEHUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQDUEHLGV SODDWVHQ SHUDXWRHQ29 LQGH[   )LJXXU 9HUKRXGLQJDDQWDODUEHLGVSODDWVHQEHUHLNEDDUELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHU DXWR HQ29LQGHSHULRGH  )LJXXU 2QWZLNNHOLQJEHUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHUDXWRHQ29WHQ RS]LFKWH YDQGHDXWREHUHLNEDDUKHLGLQ 

/LMVWYDQNDDUWHQ

.DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJZHJLQIUDVWUXFWXXUHQ  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJUDLOLQIUDVWUXFWXXUHQ  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHUDXWRLQ  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHUDXWRLQ  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJEHUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHU DXWR   .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJDUEHLGVSODDWVHQ 

(9)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJUHLVWLMGHQ  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJFRQJHVWLH  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXXU  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHU29LQ  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHU29LQ  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJEHUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHU 29  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJDUEHLGVSODDWVHQ  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJUHLVWLMGHQ  .DDUW 9HUJHOLMNLQJEHUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHU29HQDXWRLQ  .DDUW 9HUJHOLMNLQJEHUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHU29HQDXWRLQ  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHU29LQPHWOHJHQGDEHUHLNEDDUKHLG SHU DXWR  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHUDXWRLQ  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGEHURHSVEHYRONLQJSHUDXWRLQ  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHU29LQ  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGEHURHSVEHYRONLQJSHU29LQ  .DDUW %HUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHUDXWRLQ  .DDUW ,&YHUKRXGLQJRSKHWKRRIGZHJHQQHWLQ  .DDUW *HOXLGEHODVWRSSHUYODNLQ  .DDUW *HOXLGEHODVWRSSHUYODNLQ  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJJHOXLGEHODVWRSSHUYODN  .DDUW %ORRWVWHOOLQJDDQHHQJHOXLGEHODVWLQJ!G% $ LQ  .DDUW %ORRWVWHOOLQJDDQHHQJHOXLGEHODVWLQJ!G% $ LQ  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQHHQJHOXLGEHODVWLQJ!G% $   .DDUW *HOXLGEHODVWLQJLQVWLOWHJHELHGHQLQ  .DDUW *HOXLGEHODVWLQJLQVWLOWHJHELHGHQLQ  .DDUW 2QWZLNNHOLQJLQGHJHOXLGEHODVWLQJLQVWLOWHJHELHGHQ 

(10)
(11)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

6DPHQYDWWLQJHQFRQFOXVLHV

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¶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

'HHIIHFWHQYDQGHUXLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJYDQZRQHQHQZHUNHQ]LMQYHUYROJHQVGRRUJHUHNHQG YRRU SHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW EHUHLNEDDUKHLG YDQ ZHUNJHOHJHQKHLG &2HPLVVLHV HQ

JHOXLGEHODVWLQJPHWEHKXOSYDQEHVWDDQGHPRGHOOHQYDQGH$GYLHVGLHQVW9HUNHHUHQ9HUYRHU HQ KHW 5,90 /DQGHOLMN 0RGHOV\VWHHP 9HUNHHU HQ 9HUYRHU /DQGHOLMN %HHOG 9HUVWRULQJ )$&76 9RRUKHWXLWYRHUHQYDQEHUHLNEDDUKHLGVDQDO\VHVLVGRRUKHW5,90LQVDPHQZHUNLQJ PHW GH 8QLYHUVLWHLW 8WUHFKW HHQ 0V$FFHVV DSSOLFDWLH RQWZLNNHOG %HUHLNEDDUKHLG LV KLHUELM XLWJHGUXNWDOVKHWDDQWDOEHVWHPPLQJHQGDWEHUHLNWNDQZRUGHQELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHU DXWR RI RSHQEDDU YHUYRHU ZDDUELM ± YLD HHQ DIVWDQGYHUYDOIXQFWLH  YHUGHU ZHJ JHOHJHQ EHVWHPPLQJHQPLQGHU]ZDDUPHHWHOOHQGDQGLFKWHUELMJHOHJHQEHVWHPPLQJHQ

'HEHODQJULMNVWHFRQFOXVLHV SHULQGLFDWRU ]LMQ

3HUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW

'HSHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLWXLWJHGUXNWLQUHL]LJHUVNLORPHWHUVQHHPWLQGHSHULRGHPHW FLUFDWRHYRRUQDPHOLMNDOVJHYROJYDQGHPRJUDILVFKH RPYDQJHQVDPHQVWHOOLQJYDQ GH EHYRONLQJ  HFRQRPLVFKH LQNRPHQVRQWZLNNHOLQJ  HQ UXLPWHOLMNLQIUDVWUXFWXUHOH

(12)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

RQWZLNNHOLQJHQ UXLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJZRQHQHQZHUNHQ %LQQHQKHWSHUVRQHQYHUYRHULVGH SHUVRQHQDXWR GH VWHUNVWH JURHLHU KHW DXWRJHEUXLN QHHPW LQ GH SHULRGH  PHW FD WRH+HWRSHQEDDUYHUYRHUJHEUXLNEOLMIWDFKWHUELMKHWDXWRJHEUXLN

&2HPLVVLHYDQSHUVRQHQDXWRYHUNHHU

'H&2HPLVVLHYDQKHWSHUVRQHQDXWRYHUNHHUQHHPWWXVVHQWRHPHWFD

'H WRHQDPH YDQ KHW DXWRJHEUXLN FD  PHHU SHUVRQHQDXWRNLORPHWHUV  ZRUGW YRRU HHQ JURRW GHHO JHFRPSHQVHHUG GRRU EUDQGVWRIHIILFLHQF\YHUEHWHULQJHQ YDQ SHUVRQHQDXWR¶V KHW SHUVRQHQDXWRSDUNZRUGWFDWRW]XLQLJHU 

%HUHLNEDDUKHLG

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¶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

(13)

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

%HUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQGHEHURHSVEHYRONLQJ

+HW ODQGHOLMNH EHHOG YDQGHEHUHLNEDDUKHLG YDQ GH EHURHSVEHYRONLQJ SHU DXWR HQ RSHQEDDU YHUYRHU OLMNWVWHUNRSKHWNDDUWEHHOGHQYDQGHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQ+HWDDQWDO ZHUNQHPHUV EHURHSVEHYRONLQJ  GDW YDQXLW LHGHUH ZHUNORFDWLH LQ 1HGHUODQG EHUHLNW NDQ ZRUGHQELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHUDXWRRI29OLMNWQLHWVWHUNDIWHZLMNHQYDQKHWDDQWDO DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ GDW YDQXLW LHGHUH ZRRQORFDWLH EHUHLNW NDQ ZRUGHQ +LHUXLW EOLMNW GDW GH UXLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJYDQGHWRWDOHZHUNJHOHJHQKHLGRSUHJLRQDDOQLYHDX KHWDUEHLGVSODDWVHQ ELQQHQ  PLQXWHQUHLVWLMG  QLHW VWHUN DIZLMNW YDQ GLH YDQ GH WRWDOH EHURHSVEHYRONLQJ (HQ QDGHUH GHVDJJUHJDWLH YDQ GH ZHUNJHOHJHQKHLG QDDU IXQFWLH  HQ EHURHSVEHYRONLQJ QDDU RSOHLGLQJVQLYHDX LVHFKWHUQRGLJRPGH]HµPDWFK¶WHNXQQHQDQDO\VHUHQ

*HOXLGEHODVWLQJ

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sUHQHQQDWXXURQGHUPHHUGUXNNRPHQWH VWDDQ

(14)
(15)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 ,QOHLGLQJ

 3RVLWLRQHULQJYDQKHWRQGHU]RHN

'H5LMNVSODQRORJLVFKH'LHQVWKHHIWGHSODQEXUHDXVZDDURQGHUKHW5,90JHYUDDJGRPHHQ ELMGUDJHWHOHYHUHQDDQGHZHWHQVFKDSSHOLMNHRQGHUERXZLQJYDQGH9LMIGH1RWD5XLPWHOLMNH 2UGHQLQJ 9,-12  GH ]RJHQRHPGH 9,-12WRHWV 'H 9,-12WRHWV NDQ LQ SULQFLSH ZRUGHQ YHUGHHOGLQYLHUYUDJHQ

 :HONH UXLPWHOLMNHRQWZLNNHOLQJHQ]LMQWXVVHQHQWHYHUZDFKWHQRSJURQGYDQ JHSURJQRWLVHHUGH HFRQRPLVFKH HQ GHPRJUDILVFKH RQWZLNNHOLQJHQ HQ KHW YDVWJHVWHOGH UXLPWHOLMNHEHOHLG GHDXWRQRPHRQWZLNNHOLQJHQ 

 +RHYHUKRXGHQGH]HUXLPWHOLMNHRQWZLNNHOLQJHQ]LFKWRWGHGRHOVWHOOLQJHQYDQKHWKXLGLJH YDVWJHVWHOGHUXLPWHOLMNHEHOHLG"

 :DW ]LMQ GH JHYROJHQ YDQ GH]H UXLPWHOLMNH RQWZLNNHOLQJHQ YRRU GH NZDOLWHLW YDQ GH OHHIRPJHYLQJ PLOLHX QDWXXU ODQGVFKDS EHUHLNEDDUKHLG OHHIEDDUKHLG HQ HFRQRPLVFKH YLWDOLWHLW

 :DW ]LMQ WHJHQ GH]H DFKWHUJURQG GH HIIHFWHQ YDQ EHOHLGVRSWLHV YRRU GH UXLPWHOLMNH LQULFKWLQJ RP GH JHVLJQDOHHUGH NQHOSXQWHQ WH NXQQHQ RSKHIIHQ RI WHQPLQVWH YHUPLQGHUHQ "

2P DQWZRRUG WH JHYHQRS GH HHUVWH RQGHU]RHNVYUDDJ LV GRRU KHW 5,90 HQ 712 ,QUR HHQ ]RJHQRHPGH µFRPSDFWH YHUVWHGHOLMNLQJYDULDQW¶ RSJHVWHOG YRRU GH UXLPWHOLMNH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQZRQHQZHUNHQHQLQIUDVWUXFWXXULQGHSHULRGH ,QGH]HYDULDQWLVXLWJHJDDQ YDQGHRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQGHZRQLQJYRRUUDDGHQGHZHUNJHOHJHQKHLGYROJHQVGHODQJHWHUPLMQ YHUNHQQLQJHQYDQKHW&3% &3%E RSKHWVFKDDOQLYHDXYDQGH&2523UHJLR¶VZHONH YHUYROJHQV ]LMQ JHDOORFHHUG RS HHQ ODJHU VFKDDOQLYHDX   PHWHU JULGV YRRU ZRQHQ YLHUFLMIHULJHSRVWFRGHVYRRUZHUNHQ +LHUELMLVKHWEHVWDDQGH FRPSDFWH UXLPWHOLMNHEHOHLG XLWGHSHULRGHGRRUJHWURNNHQYRRUGHUHVWFDSDFLWHLWYDQGHZRQLQJYUDDJ=LHYRRU HHQ XLWJHEUHLGHEHVFKULMYLQJ *RHWJHOXNHWDO  

,QGLWUDSSRUWZRUGWLQJHJDDQRSGHJHYROJHQYDQGH]HFRPSDFWHYHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQWRS GH SHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW DOV RQGHUGHHO YDQ GH NQHOSXQWHQDQDO\VH RQGHU]RHNVYUDDJ   'H UHVXOWDWHQNXQQHQZRUGHQJHEUXLNWDOVXLWJDQJVVLWXDWLHYRRUKHWEHSDOHQYDQGHHIIHFWHQYDQ EHOHLGVRSWLHV RQGHU]RHNVYUDDJ   'H DQDO\VHV ]LMQ GRRU KHW 5,90 XLWJHYRHUG LQ VDPHQZHUNLQJPHWGH$GYLHVGLHQVW9HUNHHUHQ9HUYRHU $99 HQGH8QLYHUVLWHLW8WUHFKW

 *HKDQWHHUGHLQGLFDWRUHQ

'H YROJHQGH LQGLFDWRUHQ ]LMQ JHVHOHFWHHUG RP GH JHYROJHQ YDQ GH FRPSDFWH YHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQWRSGHSHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLWWHNXQQHQDQDO\VHUHQ

(16)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

 'H RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ GH SHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW XLWJHGUXNW LQ DDQWDOOHQ UHL]LJHUVNLORPHWHUV SHU YHUYRHUZLM]H DXWRRSHQEDDUYHUYRHUQLHWJHPRWRULVHHUGHYHUYRHUZLM]HQ 

 'H&2± HPLVVLHVYDQKHWSHUVRQHQYHUYRHULQ1HGHUODQG

 'HRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQGHEHUHLNEDDUKHLG XLWJHGUXNW LQKHW DDQWDO DFWLYLWHLWHQ GLH EHUHLNW NXQQHQZRUGHQELQQHQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGSHUDXWRHQRSHQEDDUYHUYRHU

 'H RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ GH JHOXLGEHODVWLQJ GRRU YHUNHHU HQ YHUYRHU XLWJHGUXNW LQ D  KHW JHOXLGEHODVW RSSHUYODN E  EORRWVWHOOLQJ YDQ GH EHYRONLQJ DDQ JHOXLG HQ F  GH JHOXLGEHODVWLQJLQVWLOWHJHELHGHQ

 /HHVZLM]HU

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

(17)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 8LWJDQJVSXQWHQFRPSDFWHLQULFKWLQJVYDULDQW

 ,QOHLGLQJ

,QGLWKRRIGVWXNZRUGHQGHXLWJDQJVSXQWHQEHVFKUHYHQYRRUGHSURJQRVHYDQGHHIIHFWHQYDQ GH FRPSDFWH YHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQW RS GH SHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW HPLVVLHV EHUHLNEDDUKHLG HQ JHOXLGEHODVWLQJYDQYHUNHHUHQYHUYRHU

+HW DOJHPHQH XLWJDQJVSXQW LV GDW ZRUGW XLWJHJDDQ YDQ GH ODQJHWHUPLMQ HFRQRPLVFKH YHUNHQQLQJHQ /7¶  YDQ KHW &HQWUDDO 3ODQEXUHDX &3% E  ZDDULQ RQGHU PHHU JHJHYHQV RYHU GH JURHL YDQ GH EHYRONLQJ KHW DDQWDO KXLVKRXGHQV HQ GH VHFWRUDOH HFRQRPLVFKH RQWZLNNHOLQJ RS KHW QLYHDX YDQ GH ODQGVGHOHQ ]LMQ YHUPHOG YROJHQV GULH VFHQDULR¶V'LYLGHG(XURSH(XURSHDQ&RRUGLQDWLRQHQ*OREDO&RPSHWLWLRQ 'H SURJQRVHV YDQGH SHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW EHUHLNEDDUKHLG HQ JHOXLG ]LMQDOOHHQ YHUULFKW YRRU KHW (XURSHDQ &RRUGLQDWLRQ (& VFHQDULR

,QDIZLMNLQJPHWGH/7¶LVKHWEHOHLGGDWLVPHHJHQRPHQ JHDFWXDOLVHHUG SHLOGDWXPLV DSULO  YRRU]RYHUGLWYROGHHGDDQGHYROJHQGHGULHFULWHULD

D +HWLVEHVFKUHYHQLQRIILFLsOHSXEOLFDWLHV E 'HILQDQFLHULQJYROOHGLJLVRQGHUERXZG

F +HW LV YROGRHQGH  JHwQVWUXPHQWHHUG ELMYRRUEHHOG GRRU PLGGHO YDQ ZHWWHOLMNH UHJHOLQJHQ 

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

 5XLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJZRQHQHQZHUNHQ

'HUXLPWHEHKRHIWHYRRUZRQHQHQZHUNHQ]LMQYRRUGH&3%ODQJHWHUPLMQVFHQDULR¶VEHNHQG RSKHWVFKDDOQLYHDXYDQ&2523JHELHGHQHQODQGVGHOHQHQZRUGHQLQ]LMQGRRUKHW5,90 HQ 712,QURYHUWDDOGQDDUHHQODJHUVFKDDOQLYHDXQDPHOLMNYLHUNDQWHQYDQELMPHWHU ZRQHQ RI YLHUFLMIHULJH SRVWFRGHJHELHGHQ ZHUNHQ  ,Q *RHWJHOXN HW DO   ]LMQ GH

(18)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW XLWJDQJVSXQWHQKLHUELMXLWJHEUHLGEHVFKUHYHQ,QGLWKRRIGVWXNZRUGWYROVWDDQPHWHHQNRUWH WRHOLFKWLQJ 9RRUGHDOORFDWLHYDQKHWZRQHQLVKHWPRGHO5XLPWHVFDQQHUYDQKHW5,90 ]LH6FKRWWHQHW DO  WRHJHSDVWWHUZLMOGHUXLPWHFODLPVYRRUZHUNHQ]LMQJHDOORFHHUGPHWKHW23(5$ PRGHO YDQ712,QUR /RXWHU+LOEHUVHWDO   'HZRQLQJHQSHU&2523JHELHG XLWJHVSOLWVWLQPHHUHQHHQJH]LQVZRQLQJHQ ]LMQYHUGHHOG WRW  RYHU GULH FDWHJRULHsQ ORFDWLHV   EHVWDDQG VWHGHOLMN JHELHG   9,1(; XLWOHJORFDWLHV HQ   RYHULJH XLWOHJORFDWLHV HQ KHW ODQGHOLMNH JHELHG +LHUYRRU LV HHQ YDVWH YHUGHOLQJ JHEUXLNW EHVWDDQG VWHGHOLMN JHELHG  9,1(;XLWOHJ  RYHULJ   JHEDVHHUG RS HHQ EHVWDDQGH LQYHQWDULVDWLH YDQ SODQQHQ YRRU 9,1(;ORFDWLHV %LM GH UXLPWHOLMNHDOORFDWLHGRRUGH5XLPWHVFDQQHU]LMQGHZRQLQJHQEXLWHQKHWEHVWDDQGVWHGHOLMN JHELHG HQ 9,1(;XLWOHJORFDWLHV ORFDWLHV YHUGHHOG RS EDVLV YDQ HHQ KLVWRULVFKH VWDWLVWLVFKH DQDO\VH YDQ GH UXLPWHOLMNH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ GH ZRQLQJYRRUUDDG LQ GH SHULRGH  9HURQGHUVWHOGZRUGWGDWGHLQGHSHULRGHJHYRQGHQUXLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJYDQGH ZRQLQJYRRUUDDG]LFK YRRUHHQGHHOYDQGHZRQLQJERXZ YRRU]HW9HUGHULVDDQJHQRPHQGDW HU WRWQLHWLQGHEHJUHQVGH(FRORJLVFKH+RRIGVWUXFWXXUZRUGWJHERXZG 9RRUZDWEHWUHIWGHSURJQRVHYDQGHZHUNJHOHJHQKHLGPHWKHW2SHUDPRGHO]LMQGHYROJHQGH XLWJDQJVSXQWHQUHOHYDQW,QGHHHUVWHSODDWVLVXLWJHJDDQYDQGHRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQKHWDDQWDO DUEHLGVSODDWVHQYROJHQVGH&3%ODQJHWHUPLMQVFHQDULR¶V XLWJHVSOLWVW QDDU HFRQRPLVFKH VHFWRUHQHQGULHODQGVGHOHQ ,QGHWZHHGHSODDWVLVGHYUDDJQDDUEHGULMYHQWHUUHLQHQEHSDDOG RSEDVLVYDQYHURQGHUVWHOOLQJHQXLWGH%HGULMIV/RFDWLH0RQLWRU,YDQKHW&3% &3%D  7HQVORWWHLVGHRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQKHWDDQWDOLQZRQHUVXLWGH5XLPWHVFDQQHUDOVXLWJDQJVSXQW JHQRPHQ

'H SURJQRVHV YDQ ZRQHQ HQ ZHUNHQ KHEEHQ DOV XLWJDQJVSXQW GDW RYHUKHLGVEHOHLG VOHFKWV EHSHUNW ZRUGW LQJHEUDFKW QDPHOLMN YLD GH PHW ZRQLQJERXZ VDPHQKDQJHQGH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ KHW DDQWDO LQZRQHUV XLW GH 5XLPWHVFDQQHU  ppQ YDQ GH YHUNODUHQGH YDULDEHOHQ YRRU UXLPWHOLMNHYHUVFKLOOHQLQRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQKHWDDQWDODUEHLGVSODDWVHQLQKHW2SHUDPRGHO,Q IHLWH ZRUGW YHURQGHUVWHOG GDW YHVWLJLQJVJHGUDJ LQ GH WRHNRPVW KHW]HOIGH ]DO ]LMQ DOV LQ KHW YHUOHGHQ,PSOLFLHWLVKLHULQEHOHLGYHUZHUNWYRRU]RYHUKHWIHLWHOLMNYHVWLJLQJVJHGUDJLQKHW YHUOHGHQGRRURYHUKHLGVEHOHLGLVEHwQYORHG

 :HJHQUDLOLQIUDVWUXFWXXU

 8LWJDQJVSXQWHQLQIUDVWUXFWXXUEHOHLG

,Q GH]H SDUDJUDDI ZRUGW GH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ KHW DDQERG YDQ KRRIGZHJHQQHW HQ VSRRUZHJHQQHW WRW  EHVFKUHYHQ %LM ZLM]LJLQJHQ YDQ KHW KRRIGZHJHQQHW JDDW KHW RP DDQOHJ YDQ QLHXZH LQIUDVWUXFWXXU HQ XLWEUHLGLQJHQ YDQ EHVWDDQGH LQIUDVWUXFWXXU

(19)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

FDSDFLWHLWVYHUJURWLQJ  %LMKHW DDQERG YDQ KHW KRRIGVSRRUZHJHQQHW JDDW KHW ]RZHO RP D QLHXZHLQIUDVWUXFWXXUHQXLWEUHLGLQJYDQEHVWDDQGHLQIUDVWUXFWXXUDOVRP E ZLM]LJLQJHQLQGH GLHQVWYHUOHQLQJYDQKHWRSHQEDDUYHUYRHU

9RRU GH LQIUDVWUXFWXXU LV LQ SULQFLSH DDQJHVORWHQ ELM GH /7 ¶ PDDU HU LV HHQ QLHXZH SHLOGDWXP YRRU RIILFLHHO EHOHLG JHKDQWHHUG QDPHOLMN VHSWHPEHU  (U LV JHHQ VFHQDULRVSHFLILHNHLQYXOOLQJYDQGHLQYHVWHULQJHQLQLQIUDVWUXFWXXUYHURQGHUVWHOG

'H ORFDWLHV YDQ QLHXZH LQIUDVWUXFWXXU ]LMQ DINRPVWLJ XLW GH NDDUW ³1HGHUODQG LQ 3ODQQHQ ´ YHUVLHYHUNUHJHQYDQGH53' ZDDULQLQIRUPDWLHYDQGH,QVSHFWLHV5XLPWHOLMNH 2UGHQLQJ HQ XLW KHW 0HHUMDUHQSURJUDPPD ,QIUDVWUXFWXXU HQ 7UDQVSRUW  0,7 9 : LVYHUZHUNWDOVPHGHGHSDUWLsOHKHU]LHQLQJYDQKHW0,7YDVWJHOHJGLQEULHI YDQ GH 0LQLVWHU YDQ 9HUNHHU HQ :DWHUVWDDW DDQ GH 7ZHHGH .DPHU GG  EULHINHQPHUN'*3,%%2 'HYROJHQGHLQGHOLQJYDQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHOHZHUNHQZRUGW JHKDQWHHUG

œ FDWHJRULHSURMHFWHQLQUHDOLVDWLHIDVH œ FDWHJRULHSURMHFWHQLQXLWYRHULQJWRWHQPHW

œ FDWHJRULHDJURWHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHOHZHUNHQ +6/2RVWGH1RRUGWDNYDQGH%HWXZHURXWH GH =XLGHU]HHOLMQ  GLH LQ KHW 0,7 QLHW YROOHGLJ ]LMQ JHILQDQFLHUG HQ ZDDUYRRU DGGLWLRQHOH ILQDQFLHULQJ EXLWHQ GHKXLGLJH EHJURWLQJ YDQ KHW0LQLVWHULH YDQ9HUNHHU HQ :DWHUVWDDWPRHWZRUGHQJH]RFKW

œ FDWHJRULH  SODQVWXGLHSURMHFWHQ ZDDUYDQ XLWYRHULQJ QD  ]DO SODDWVYLQGHQ HQ GLH ERYHQGLHQYRRU]LMQJHUHDOLVHHUG

œ FDWHJRULHSODQVWXGLHSURMHFWHQZDDUYRRUQDGHUEHVWXXUOLMNRYHUOHJ]DOSODDWVYLQGHQ œ FDWHJRULH D SODQVWXGLHSURMHFWHQ GLH QD EHVWXXUOLMN RYHUOHJ YDVWJHOHJG LQ GH

ERYHQJHQRHPGHEULHIYDQGH0LQLVWHUYDQ9HUNHHUHQ:DWHUVWDDW ]LMQRYHUJHKHYHOGYDQ FDWHJRULH  RI  QDDU FDWHJRULH  RI  HQ ZDDUYDQ GH ILQDQFLHULQJ XLW 3XEOLHN 3ULYDWH 6DPHQZHUNLQJV 336 FRQVWUXFWLHVPRHWNRPHQ

œ FDWHJRULHYHUNHQQLQJHQZDDURYHUQDGHUEHVWXXUOLMNRYHUOHJ]DOSODDWVYLQGHQ

9RRUGHLQIUDVWUXFWXXULQLVXLWJHJDDQYDQUHDOLVDWLHYDQGHSURMHFWHQLQGHFDWHJRULHsQ   DOVPHGH GH LQIUDVWUXFWXXUSURMHFWHQ GLH QD EHVWXXUOLMN RYHUOHJ PHW GH SURYLQFLHV ]LMQ RYHUJHKHYHOGYDQFDWHJRULHHQQDDUFDWHJRULH9RRUGH]HSURMHFWHQLVH[WUDILQDQFLHULQJ ERYHQRS KHW 0,7  PLOMDUG JXOGHQ  JHYRQGHQ 'H DIVSUDNHQ ]LMQ YDVWJHOHJG LQ GH ERYHQJHQRHPGHEULHIYDQGH0LQLVWHUYDQ9HUNHHUHQ:DWHUVWDDWDDQGH7ZHHGH.DPHU 9RRUGHLQIUDVWUXFWXXULQZRUGWYHURQGHUVWHOGGDWGHYROJHQGHLQIUDVWUXFWXXUSURMHFWHQ JHUHDOLVHHUG]LMQ

œ FDWHJRULH D GH +6/2RVW 'H 1RRUGWDN YDQ GH %HWXZHURXWH GLH LQ KHW 0,7 RRN RQGHU FDWHJRULHDYDOW ZRUGWLQQLHWYHURQGHUVWHOGRPGDWKHWNDELQHWLQVHSWHPEHU  EHVORWHQKHHIWGH]HWHODWHQYHUYDOOHQ

(20)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

œ FDWHJRULH D KHW JDDW KLHU RP YLMI SURMHFWHQ H &RHQWXQQHO  :HVWHOLMN UDQGZHJ  DDQVOXLWLQJ ELM +DOIZHJ $ 'LQWHORRUG  %HUJHQ RS =RRP QRRUGHOLMN GHHO $$ 5RWWHUGDP QRRUGHOLMNH UDQGZHJ $ SDVVDJH 0DDVWULFKW $ 0 'HOIODQG  ZDDUYDQ GH XLWYRHULQJ QDDU YHUZDFKWLQJ JHPDNNHOLMN SDVW LQ GH GRRUORSHQGH EHJURWLQJ YDQ KHW 0LQLVWHULHYDQ9HUNHHUHQ:DWHUVWDDWWXVVHQHQ

+HWWRHYRHJHQYDQGHSURMHFWHQLQFDWHJRULHDZLMNWDIYDQGHXLWJDQJVSXQWHQYDQGH/7¶ GH]HLQIUDVWUXFWXXUSURMHFWHQGLHQDEHVWXXUOLMNRYHUOHJDDQKHW0,7]LMQWRHJHYRHJG]LMQ QLHWYROOHGLJLQKHW0,7JHILQDQFLHUG YDQZHJH336FRQVWUXFWLHV 'HSURMHFWHQ]LMQLQKHW UHIHUHQWLHEHHOG YRRU  RSJHQRPHQ YDQZHJH D  FRQVLVWHQWLH PHW GH LQYXOOLQJ YDQ YDVWVWDDQGEHOHLGYRRUZRQHQHQZHUNHQELMZRQHQZRUGWQDPHOLMNLQGHSHULRGH HHQ YRRUW]HWWLQJ YDQ KHW 9,1(;EHOHLG YHURQGHUVWHOG HQ E  KHW YRRUNRPHQ YDQ HHQ RQUHDOLVWLVFK³NUDS´LQIUDVWUXFWXXUQHWZHUNLQ

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

.DDUW  JHHIW GH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ KHW KRRIGVSRRUZHJHQQHW LQ GH SHULRGH  HQ  'H XLWEUHLGLQJ YDQ KHW VSRRUZHJHQQHW LV LQ GH SHULRGH  EHSHUNW JHZHHVW,QKHWZHVWHQYDQKHWODQG]LMQHQNHOHOLMQHQDDQJHOHJG]RDOVGH=RHWHUPHHUOLMQGH 6FKLSKROOLMQHQGHOLMQ'LHPHQ/HO\VWDG'HXLWEUHLGLQJYDQKHWVSRRUZHJHQQHWLQGHSHULRGH  ZRUGW YRRUDO EHSDDOG GRRU GH DDQOHJ YDQ JURWH LQIUDVWUXFWXUHOH SURMHFWHQ %HWXZHURXWHGH+DQ]HOLMQ/HO\VWDG=ZROOH+6/RRVWHQ+6/=XLG 1DDVWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHOH SURMHFWHQ]LMQZLM]LJLQJHQGHGLHQVWUHJHOLQJYDQKHWVSRRUYHUYRHU]LMQLQYORHGRSKHWDDQERG YDQ RSHQEDDU YHUYRHU 8LWJDQJVSXQWKLHUYRRULV GH UHIHUHQWLHSURJQRVH YDQ 5DLOQHG   +HW JDDW KLHUELM RP PDUNW HQ SURGXFWRQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ KHW VSRRUYHUYRHU ]RDOV GH UHLVWLMGYHUNRUWLQJYDQLQWHUFLW\WUHLQHQYDQZHJHKHWPHGHJHEUXLNYDQGHKRJHVQHOKHLGVOLMQHQ HU LVXLWJHJDDQYDQGHLQWHJUDWLHYDQGH+6/=XLGLQKHWKRRIGVSRRUZHJHQQHW 

(21)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ Wegennet 1970 - 1998 1970 1998 Wegennet 1998 - 2020 1998 2020 .DDUW2QWZLNNHOLQJZHJLQIUDVWUXFWXXUHQ

(22)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW Spoorwegennet 1970 - 1998 1970 1998 Spoorwegennet 1998 - 2020 1998 2020

(23)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 8LWJDQJVSXQWHQRYHULJPRELOLWHLWVEHOHLG

9RRU ZDW EHWUHIW RYHULJ PRELOLWHLWVEHOHLG JHOG KHW DOJHPHQH XLWJDQJVSXQW GDW DDQJHVORWHQ ZRUGW ELMGHODQJHWHUPLMQYHUNHQQLQJHQYDQKHW&3%&RQFUHHWEHWHNHQWGLWGDWGH VHFWRUDOH HFRQRPLVFKHGHPRJUDILVFKHEUDQGVWRISULMVHQRYHULJHRQWZLNNHOLQJHQFRQIRUPGH&3% ODQJHWHUPLMQYHUNHQQLQJHQXLW]LMQYHURQGHUVWHOG,QGLWUDSSRUWZRUGHQGHDDQYXOOHQGH YHURQGHUVWHOOLQJHQ NRUW WRHJHOLFKW ]LH YRRU HHQ XLWJHEUHLGH WRHOLFKWLQJ $99 LQ YRRUEHUHLGLQJ 

9RRU ZDW EHWUHIW KHW RYHUKHLGVEHOHLG ZRUGW  FRQIRUP GH /7¶ DDQJHQRPHQ GDW JHHQ YROOHGLJHXLWYRHULQJULMNVEHOHLGSODDWVYLQGW(HQJHPDWLJGHLPSOHPHQWDWLHYDQKHWIODQNHUHQG YROXPHEHOHLGZRUGWYHURQGHUVWHOG œ EHSHUNWHLPSOHPHQWDWLHYHUYRHUPDQDJHPHQW9HURQGHUVWHOGLVGDWYHUYRHUPDQDJHPHQWELM  YDQGHEHGULMYHQPHWPHHUGDQZHUNQHPHUVLPSOHPHQWDWLHLVJHwQWURGXFHHUGPHW HHQ HIIHFWLYLWHLWYDQYDQGHKXLGLJHEHNHQGHJHPLGGHOGHHIIHFWHQ œ UHsHO FRQVWDQWHSDUNHHUWDULHYHQ WHQRS]LFKWHYDQ 

œ EHSHUNWH LPSOHPHQWDWLH YDQ GH SDUNHHUQRUPHULQJ YDQ KHW $%&ORFDWLHEHOHLG 9HURQGHUVWHOG LV GDW RS  YDQ GH WRHQDPH YDQ GH ZHUNJHOHJHQKHLG GH SDUNHHUQRUPHULQJXLWKHW$%&ORFDWLHEHOHLGYDQWRHSDVVLQJLV

2YHULJHUHOHYDQWHXLWJDQJVSXQWHQELMGHDXWRPRELOLWHLWVSURJQRVHV

œ HU ZRUGW JHHQ LQWURGXFWLH YDQ UHNHQLQJULMGHQ YHURQGHUVWHOG DDQJH]LHQ HU LQ  QRJ JHHQ ZHWPDWLJH EDVLV YRRU EHVWRQG ZDDUGRRU UHNHQLQJ ULMGHQ RQYROGRHQGH JHwQVWUXPHQWHHUG LV ,Q GH /7¶ LV LQ GH UHIHUHQWLHVFHQDULR¶V RRN JHHQ UHNHQLQJULMGHQ YHURQGHUVWHOG œ YRRU ZDWEHQXWWLQJVPDDWUHJHOHQRSKHWKRRIGZHJHQQHWLVXLWJHJDDQYDQGHLPSOHPHQWDWLH YDQ KHWYHUNHHUVEHKHHUVLQJVSURJUDPPDFRQIRUPKHW0,79RRUHQLVHHQ WRHQDPHYDQGHVWURRNFDSDFLWHLWYDQKHWKRRIGZHJHQQHWPHWYHURQGHUVWHOG œ LQ DIZLMNLQJYDQGH/7¶YLQGWLQGHEHUHNHQLQJYDQGHSHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLWPHWKHW/06 HHQ WHUXJNRSSHOLQJYDQGHWRHQDPHYDQGHFRQJHVWLHRSKHWYHUSODDWVLQJVJHGUDJSODDWV 2YHULJHXLWJDQJVSXQWHQELMGHRSHQEDDUYHUYRHUSURJQRVHV

œ GH WDULHYHQ YRRUWUHLQ HQRYHULJ RSHQEDDU YHUYRHU ]LMQ UHsHO FRQVWDQW YHURQGHUVWHOG WHQ RS]LFKWHYDQ

œ HHQ NZDOLWHLWVYHUEHWHULQJ YDQ KHW RSHQEDDU YHUYRHU LV YHURQGHUVWHOG DOV JHYROJ YDQ GH PDDWUHJHOHQ XLW KHW 0,7 HQ GH LPSOHPHQWDWLH YDQ ]RJHQRHPGH µ'H %RHU¶ PDDWUHJHOSDNNHW2SDIVWDQGHQWRWNLORPHWHULVGH JHPLGGHOGH 29VQHOKHLGPHW  YHUJURRWWXVVHQNLORPHWHUHHQYHUORRSYDQQDDUERYHQGHNLORPHWHUPHW 

(24)
(25)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

 %HVFKULMYLQJPHWKRGLHN

 0HWKRGLHNRSKRRIGOLMQHQ



9RRU GH SURJQRVH YDQ GH HIIHFWHQ YDQ GH FRPSDFWH YHUVWHGHOLMNLQJYDULDQW YRRU GH 9LMIGH 1RWD5XLPWHOLMNH2UGHQLQJ]LMQYRRUZDWEHWUHIWYHUNHHUHQYHUYRHUGHYROJHQGHLQGLFDWRUHQ JHVHOHFWHHUG

 GH RQWZLNNHOLQJYDQGHSHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLWXLWJHGUXNWLQDDQWDOOHQUHL]LJHUVNLORPHWHUVSHU YHUYRHUZLM]H DXWRRSHQEDDUYHUYRHUQLHWJHPRWRULVHHUGHYHUYRHUZLM]HQ 

 KHW HQHUJLHJHEUXLN HQ GH HPLVVLHV YDQ SHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW XLWJHGUXNW LQ &2 HQ 12[

HPLVVLHV

 GH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ GH EHUHLNEDDUKHLG XLWJHGUXNW LQ KHW DDQWDO DFWLYLWHLWHQ GLH EHUHLNW NXQQHQZRUGHQELQQHQHHQEHSDDOGHUHLVWLMGSHUDXWRHQRSHQEDDUYHUYRHU

 GH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ GH JHOXLGEHODVWLQJ GRRU YHUNHHU HQ YHUYRHU XLWJHGUXNW LQ KHW JHOXLGEHODVWRSSHUYODNWHLQ1HGHUODQG

'H SURJQRVHV YDQ GH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ GH SHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLW KHW HQHUJLHJHEUXLN HQ GH HPLVVLHV HQ GH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ GH JHOXLGEHODVWLQJ YDQ YHUNHHU LQ KHW NDGHU YDQ GH HIIHFWHQEHUHNHQLQJ YDQ GH 9LMIGH 1RWD YRUPHQ RRN GH EDVLV YRRU GH 1DWLRQDOH 0LOLHXYHUNHQQLQJ 5,90 



)LJXXUODDWGHVDPHQKDQJ]LHQWXVVHQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHPRGHOOHQGLHJHEUXLNW]LMQELMGH GRRUUHNHQLQJ YDQ GH LQGLFDWRUHQ ,Q GH]H SDUDJUDDI ZRUGW GH PHWKRGLHN RS KRRIGOLMQHQ WRHJHOLFKW ,Q GH KLHURS YROJHQGH SDUDJUDIHQ ZRUGW GH PHWKRGLHN SHU LQGLFDWRU QDGHU WRHJHOLFKW

)LJXXU6FKHPDWLVFKHZHHUJDYHPHWKRGLHN



+HW PRGHO )$&76 $*9   LV JHEUXLNW RP SHUVRQHQDXWREH]LW EUDQGVWRINRVWHQ HQHUJLHJHEUXLN HQ HPLVVLHV YDQ SHUVRQHQDXWR¶V YRRU  HQ  WH SURJQRWLVHUHQ JHEDVHHUGRSGHPRJUDILVFKHHFRQRPLVFKHHQWHFKQLVFKHRQWZLNNHOLQJHQSHUVFHQDULR (&HQ *& 'HRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQKHWDXWREH]LWHQGHEUDQGVWRINRVWHQ]LMQLQSXWYRRUKHW/DQGHOLMN 0RGHOV\VWHHP 9HUNHHU HQ 9HUYRHU /06  8LWNRPVWHQ YDQ KHW /06 RQWZLNNHOLQJ

EUDQGVWRINRVWHQ DXWREH]LW )$&76 LQZRQHUV SHU P 5XLPWHVFDQQHU DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ SHUVHFWRUSHU3& 2SHUD JHOXLGEHODVWRSSHUYODNGRRUZHJYHUNHHURS KRRIGZHJHQHQW /DQGHOLMN%HHOG9HUVWRULQJ DXWR29HQOYUNP¶V LQWHQVLWHLWHQKRRIGZHJHQQHW DXWRHQ29UHLVWLMGHQ /DQGHOLMN0RGHO6\VWHHP %HUHLNEDDUKHLGDUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHUDXWR29 $FFHVV*,6 HQHUJLHJHEUXLNDXWR HPLVVLHVDXWR )$&76

(26)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

DXWRJHEUXLN LQ 1HGHUODQG  ZRUGHQ YHUYROJHQV ZHHU JHEUXLNW RP KHW HQHUJLHJHEUXLN HQ HPLVVLHVYDQKHWSHUVRQHQDXWRSDUNSHU]LFKWMDDUWHSURJQRWLVHUHQ



0HWGH5XLPWHVFDQQHU 6FKRWWHQHWDO  LVKHWDDQWDOLQZRQHUV QDDUOHHIWLMGVNODVVH HQ KHWDDQWDOKXLVKRXGHQV HHQSHUVRRQVSDUHQSDUHQPHWNLQGHUHQ JHSURJQRWLVHHUGYRRU HQ 'H5XLPWHVFDQQHUUHVXOWDWHQ RS PHWHUJULGV ]LMQJHDJJUHJJHHUGQDDUKHW UXLPWHOLMN GHWDLOQLYHDX YDQ GH /06VXE]RQHV GLW ]LMQ  VXE]RQHV HHQ DJJUHJDWLH YDQ 3& 



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



+HWPRGHO/DQGHOLMN%HHOG9HUVWRULQJ 9520 JHEUXLNWYRRUGHEHUHNHQLQJYDQGH JHOXLGEHODVWLQJ HQ KLQGHU YDQ ZHJYHUNHHU HQ DQGHUH EURQQHQ  ,QSXW YRRU GH EHUHNHQLQJ YDQGHJHOXLGEHODVWLQJYDQKHWZHJYHUNHHULV RQGHUPHHU GHLQWHQVLWHLWVRQWZLNNHOLQJ DXWR HQ YUDFKWDXWR RSKHWKRRIGZHJHQQHWXLWKHW/06

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

 3URJQRVHUXLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJZRQHQHQZHUNHQ



'HPHWKRGLHNYRRUGHSURJQRVHYDQGHUXLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJYDQLQZRQHUVHQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQ WHQ EHKRHYH YDQ GH FRPSDFWH YHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQW YRRU GH 9LMIGH 1RWD 5XLPWHOLMNH

(27)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

2UGHQLQJ LV EHVFKUHYHQ LQ *RHWJHOXN HW DO   ,Q GLW UDSSRUW ZRUGW YROVWDDQ PHW HHQ NRUWHWRHOLFKWLQJYDQGHPHWKRGLHN

'HLQGLWUDSSRUWJHKDQWHHUGHUXLPWHOLMNHJHJHYHQVYRRUZRQHQHQZHUNHQ]LMQJHEDVHHUGRS YRRUORSLJH UHVXOWDWHQ YDQ GH FRPSDFWH YHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQW XLW GH SHULRGH MXQLDXJXVWXV  ,Q KHW YRRUMDDU YDQ  ]LMQ GH GHILQLWLHYH UXLPWHOLMNH JHJHYHQV YDVWJHVWHOG HQ EHVFKUHYHQ LQ KHW5,90UDSSRUW µ:RQHQ HQZHUNHQUXLPWHOLMNYHUNHQG¶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

 5XLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJZRQHQGH5XLPWHVFDQQHU

 2PWHNXQQHQNRPHQWRWHHQSURJQRVHYDQKHWDDQWDOLQZRQHUV QDDUOHHIWLMGVNODVVHQ HQKHW DDQWDOKXLVKRXGHQV QDDUW\SH SHU/06VXE]RQH]LMQJURIZHJGULHVWDSSHQWHRQGHUVFKHLGHQ  ,QGHHHUVWHSODDWVLVGHXLWEUHLGLQJVEHKRHIWHYDQGHZRQLQJPDUNW KHWDDQWDOZRQLQJHQQDDU W\SH  RS KHW VFKDDOQLYHDX YDQ &2523JHELHGHQ DIJHOHLG XLW PRGHOOHQ YDQ $%) KHW 35,026KXLVKRXGHQVPRGHO KHW NZDOLWDWLHI ZRQLQJPDUNWPRGHO 621$5 KHW 7UHQGUDSSRUWPRGHO  XLWJDDQGH YDQ GH UDQGWRWDOHQ RS KHW QLYHDX YDQ GH ODQGVGHOHQ XLW GH ODQJHWHUPLMQYHUNHQQLQJHQYDQKHW&3% &3%E



,Q GH WZHHGH SODDWV LV GH XLWEUHLGLQJVEHKRHIWH YDQ GH ZRQLQJYRRUUDDG SHU &2523JHELHG YHUWDDOGQDDUUXLPWHFODLPV DDQWDOKHFWDUHZRQHQSHU&2523JHELHG RPGH]HWHYHUYROJHQV WHDOORFHUHQQDDUYLHUNDQWHQYDQ PHWHUPHWEHKXOSYDQGH5XLPWHVFDQQHU 6FKRWWHQ

HWDO  LQFRPELQDWLHPHWVWDQGDDUG*,6HQVWDWLVWLVFKHSDNNHWWHQ+LHUELMLVJHEUXLN

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

(28)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW ,QGHGHUGHSODDWV]LMQRPGHUXLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJYDQGHEHYRONLQJ QDDUOHHIWLMGVNODVVHQ !MDDU HQKXLVKRXGHQV QDDUW\SHHHQVSHUVRRQV SDUHQSDUHQPHWNLQGHUHQ SHU PHWHUYLHUNDQWWHEHUHNHQHQGHJHJHYHQVRYHUKHW DDQWDOZRQLQJHQSHUW\SH HHQVJH]LQVPHHUJH]LQV JHNRSSHOG RSKHWQLYHDXYDQGH&2523 JHELHGHQ DDQGHJHJHYHQVRYHUVSUHLGLQJYDQGHEHYRONLQJHQKXLVKRXGHQVYLDHHQPHWKRGH YDQµ,WHUDWLHI3URSRUWLRQHHO)LWWHQ¶ ]LHKLHUYRRUHHQDSDUWH5,90UDSSRUWDJHYDQ%DNNHQHV *RHWJHOXN 7HQVORWWH]LMQGHDDQWDOOHQLQZRQHUV QDDUOHHIWLMG HQKXLVKRXGHQV QDDU W\SH SHU PHWHUYLHUNDQWJHDJJUHJHHUGQDDUKHWQLYHDXYDQGH/06VXE]RQHV 

 5XLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJZHUNHQKHW2SHUDPRGHO



7HQ EHKRHYH YDQ GH SURJQRVH YDQ GH ZHUNJHOHJHQKHLG ]LMQ WZHH UHFHQWH YHUVLHV YDQ KHW 2SHUD PRGHO 23(UDWLRQDOLVDWLH 5XLPWHOLMNHFRQRPLVFK $QDO\VHPRGHO  YDQ 712 ,QUR JHKDQWHUGKHW2SHUDPRGHOHQKHW2SHUD3FPRGHO+HW2SHUDPRGHOLVHHQ]RJHQRHPG ³VKLIWVKDUH DQDO\VH´ PRGHO ,Q 2SHUD ]LH +LOEHUV HW DO   ZRUGW GH HFRQRPLVFKH RQWZLNNHOLQJSHUJHPHHQWHJHSURJQRWLVHHUGYRRU2SHUDEHGULMIVNODVVHQHQ]HYHQµEUHGH¶ 2SHUDVHFWRUHQ LQGXVWULH ERXZQLMYHUKHLG JURRWKDQGHO FRQVXPHQWHQGLHQVWHQ WUDQVSRUW NHQQLVGLHQVWHQ QRQSURILW VHFWRU  RQGHUVFKHLGHQ 3HU EUHGH 2SHUDVHFWRU ZRUGW HHUVW YRRU HONH JHPHHQWH KHW VWUXFWXXUHIIHFW RIZHO µVKDUH¶  EHUHNHQG 'LW VWUXFWXXUHIIHFW LV EHSDDOG GRRU YRRU HHQ JHPHHQWH XLW WH JDDQ YDQ GH QDWLRQDOH SURFHQWXHOH JURHL YRRU HONH 2SHUD EHGULMIVNODVVH GLH ELQQHQ HHQ 2SHUDVHFWRU YDOW 9HUYROJHQV LV SHU EUHGH 2SHUDVHFWRU GH IHLWHOLMNHMDDUOLMNVHSURFHQWXHOHJURHLLQDIZLMNLQJYDQGHYHUZDFKWHJURHL KHWVWUXFWXXUHIIHFW EHUHNHQGYRRUGHSHULRGH GHVFKDWWLQJVSHULRGH 'LWZRUGWKHWGLIIHUHQWLHHOHIIHFW RIZHO µVKLIW¶  JHQRHPG +HW GLIIHUHQWLHHO HIIHFW SHU 2SHUDVHFWRU ZRUGW YHUYROJHQV YLD UHJUHVVLHDQDO\VH YHUNODDUG DDQ GH KDQG YDQ GLYHUVH ORFDWLHIDFWRUHQ DOOH EHGULMIVH[WHUQH IDFWRUHQGLHKHWEHGULMIVIXQFWLRQHUHQSRWHQWLHHOEHwQYORHGHQHQZDDUYRRUELQQHQ 1HGHUODQG UXLPWHOLMNHYHUVFKLOOHQLQLQWHQVLWHLWHQRINZDOLWHLWEHVWDDQ 



0HWKHW2SHUDPRGHO]LMQSURJQRVHVJHPDDNWYDQKHWDDQWDODUEHLGVSODDWVHQ QDDUVHFWRU SHU JHPHHQWH RS EDVLV YDQ GH UDQGWRWDOHQ XLW GH &3% /7¶ QDWLRQDOH RQWZLNNHOLQJHQ DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ LQ  HFRQRPLVFKH VHFWRUHQ RQWZLNNHOLQJ LQ GULH ODQGVGHOHQ HQ ]HV EUHGH HFRQRPLVFKH VHFWRUHQ  HQ GH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ KHW DDQWDO LQZRQHUV YROJHQV GH 5XLPWHVFDQQHU 9HUYROJHQV LV GH YUDDJ QDDU EHGULMYHQWHUUHLQHQ EHSDDOG RS EDVLV YDQ YHURQGHUVWHOOLQJHQ XLW GH %HGULMIV/RFDWLH0RQLWRU GH YHURQGHUVWHOOLQJHQ OXLGHQ SHU VHFWRU ZHON GHHOYDQGHDUEHLGVSODDWVHQEHYLQGW]LFKQXHQLQWRHNRPVWRSEHGULMYHQWHUUHLQHQHQZDW LVQXHQLQGHWRHNRPVWKHWUXLPWHEHVODJSHUDUEHLGVSODDWV 



+HW2SHUD3FPRGHOLVWHQEHKRHYHYDQKHW5,90RQGHU]RHNµZRQHQHQZHUNHQUXLPWHOLMN YHUNHQG¶ *RHWJHOXN HW DO   RQWZLNNHOG RP GH 2SHUDSURJQRVHV SHU JHPHHQWH WH YHUGHOHQRYHUGHYLHUFLMIHULJHSRVWFRGHVELQQHQGLHJHPHHQWH'LWJHEHXUWGRRUYDQMDDUWRW MDDUGHYHUDQGHULQJYDQKHWDDQGHHOYDQKHWDDQWDODUEHLGVSODDWVHQYDQHHQSFJHELHGELQQHQ GHJHPHHQWHWRHWHYRHJHQDDQKHWDDQGHHOLQKHWYRRUDIJDDQGHMDDU'DWJHEHXUWYRRUHONH YDQ GH ]HYHQ EUHGH 2SHUDVHFWRUHQ YRRU GH SHULRGH  'H YHUDQGHULQJ YDQ GLW

(29)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

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

'H SURJQRVHV YRRU GH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ KHW DDQWDO DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ HQ GH YUDDJ QDDU EHGULMYHQWHUUHLQHQ ]LMQ WH EHVFKRXZHQ DOV HHQ YUDDJEHQDGHULQJ 'H YRRUXLWEHUHNHQLQJHQ KHEEHQEHWUHNNLQJRSHHQVLWXDWLHZDDUELMEHOHLGVOHFKWVEHSHUNWZRUGWLQJHEUDFKWQDPHOLMN YLD GH PHW ZRQLQJERXZ VDPHQKDQJHQGH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ KHW DDQWDO LQZRQHUV XLW GH 5XLPWHVFDQQHU  ppQ YDQ GH YHUNODUHQGH YDULDEHOHQ YRRU UXLPWHOLMNH YHUVFKLOOHQ LQ RQWZLNNHOLQJYDQKHWDDQWDODUEHLGVSODDWVHQLQKHW2SHUDPRGHO



 3URJQRVHSHUVRQHQPRELOLWHLWKHW/06



+HW /DQGHOLMN 0RGHOV\VWHHP 9HUNHHU HQ 9HUYRHU /06  YDQ GH $GYLHVGLHQVW 9HUNHHU HQ 9HUYRHULVHHQUHNHQLQVWUXPHQWYRRUKHWPDNHQYDQSURJQRVHVYRRUKHWSHUVRQHQYHUYRHURS GHPLGGHOODQJHHQODQJHWHUPLMQ ]LH'9.+&*  +HW /06 SURJQRWLVHHUW KHW DDQWDO UHL]LJHUVNLORPHWHUV SHU YHUYRHUZLM]H DXWR EHVWXXUGHU HQ SDVVDJLHU  WUHLQ RYHULJ RSHQEDDUYHUYRHUHQODQJ]DDPYHUNHHU  SHU YHUSODDWVLQJVPRWLHI RD ZRRQZHUN]DNHOLMN ZRRQVFKRRO ZRRQZLQNHO HWF  LQ HQ WXVVHQ  GHHOJHELHGHQ RI ]RQHV 'H]H ]RQHV ]LMQ ZHHU RQGHUYHUGHHOG QDDU  VXE]RQHV GLH EHVWDDQ XLW JHPHHQWHQ RI DJJUHJDWHQ YDQ SRVWFRGHJHELHGHQ 9HUGHU SURJQRWLVHHUW KHW /06 LQWHQVLWHLWV HQ FRQJHVWLHRQWZLNNHOLQJHQ RSKHW1HGHUODQGVHKRRIGZHJHQQHWHQGHYHUYRHUYUDDJRSKHWVSRRUZHJHQQHW



'HNHUQYDQKHWPRGHOV\VWHHPZRUGWJHYRUPGGRRUHHQJURRWDDQWDOGHHOPRGHOOHQZDDUPHH DO GDQ QLHW VLPXOWDDQ  NHX]HSURFHVVHQ DOV ULMEHZLMV HQ DXWREH]LW UHLVIUHTXHQWLH YHUYRHUZLM]HNHX]HEHVWHPPLQJVNHX]HURXWHNHX]HHQWLMGVWLSNHX]HRSHHQJHGHVDJJUHJHHUG QLYHDX KXLVKRXGW\SHQ ZRUGHQJHPRGHOOHHUG



'H EHODQJULMNVWH LQYRHUYDULDEHOHQ ]LMQ GHPRJUDILVFKH YDULDEHOHQ RPYDQJ HQ VDPHQVWHOOLQJ YDQ GH EHYRONLQJ DDQWDO KXLVKRXGHQV  VRFLDDOHFRQRPLVFKH YDULDEHOHQ ZHUNJHOHJHQKHLG DDQWDOOHHUOLQJSODDWVHQULMEHZLMVEH]LW HQYDULDEHOHQGLH GHNZDOLWHLWYDQ KHWDDQERGYDQGH YHUNHHUVLQIUDVWUXFWXXU NDUDNWHULVHUHQ ELMY EUDQGVWRISULM]HQ SDUNHHUWDULHYHQ 29WDULHYHQ EHVFKLNEDDUZHJHQQHW

0HGH RS EDVLV YDQ GH LQSXW YDQ KHW )$&76 PRGHO DXWREH]LW HQ EUDQGVWRINRVWHQ  GH 5XLPWHVFDQQHU LQZRQHUV HQ KXLVKRXGHQV QDDU W\SH HQ /06VXE]RQH  HQ 2SHUD DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ QDDU VHFWRU QDDU /06VXE]RQH  LV PHW KHW /06 HHQ PRELOLWHLWVSURJQRVH RSJHVWHOGYRRUKHW(&VFHQDULRYRRUGHSHULRGH

(30)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

9RRU GH SURJQRVH YDQ GH HIIHFWHQ YDQ GH FRPSDFWH YHUVWHGHOLMNLQJVYDULDQW RS PRELOLWHLW EHUHLNEDDUKHLGHPLVVLHVHQJHOXLGLVGHYROJHQGHRXWSXWYDQKHW/06YRRUHQ UHOHYDQW œ KHW DDQWDODXWR29HQODQJ]DDPYHUNHHUUHL]LJHUVNLORPHWHUVRS1HGHUODQGV JURQGJHELHG œ GH LQWHQVLWHLWVRQWZLNNHOLQJRSKHWKRRIGZHJHQQHWZHUN œ JHPLGGHOGHUHLVWLMGHQSHUDXWRHQ29WXVVHQKHUNRPVWHQHQEHVWHPPLQJHQRSKHWQLYHDX YDQ GH/06VXE]RQHV 

 3URJQRVHHQHUJLHJHEUXLNHQHPLVVLHV)$&76

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µFURVVVHFWLHGDWD¶ PRGHO JHVFKDW RS KHW 3HUVRQHQ$XWR3DQHO YDQ KHW &%6 'H WHFKQLVFKH PRGXOH EHYDW HHQ MDDUJDQJHQPRGHO ZDDULQ GH WHFKQLVFKH NHQPHUNHQ YDQ GH GLYHUVH DXWRW\SHQ QDDU EUDQGVWRIVRRUW HQ JHZLFKWVNODVVH  ]LMQ RSJHQRPHQ HQ ZDDULQ KHW EUDQGVWRIYHUEUXLN HQ GH HPLVVLHV ZRUGHQ EHUHNHQG 3HU ERXZMDDU SHU DXWRW\SH ]LMQ HQHUJLH HQ HPLVVLHIDFWRUHQ RSJHQRPHQ



 3URJQRVHSRWHQWLsOHEHUHLNEDDUKHLG0V$FFHVV$UF,QIR

 ,QWURGXFWLH

%HUHLNEDDUKHLG ZRUGW RS YHOH ZLM]HQ JHGHILQLHHUG HQ JHRSHUDWLRQDOLVHHUG ,Q GLW UDSSRUW ZRUGW EHUHLNEDDUKHLG RPVFKUHYHQ DOV KHW DDQWDO DFWLYLWHLWHQ GDW WH EHUHLNHQ LV ELQQHQ HHQ

EHSDDOGHPD[LPDOHUHLVWLMGPHWHHQEHSDDOGHYHUYRHUZLM]H

'H]HRPVFKULMYLQJLVHHQJHRJUDILVFKHEHQDGHULQJYDQEHUHLNEDDUKHLGHQJHHIWGHSRWHQWLsOH EHUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQDFWLYLWHLWHQDDQ(HQDQGHUHEHQDGHULQJLVGHYHUNHHUVNXQGLJHEHQDGHULQJ YDQ EHUHLNEDDUKHLG ZDDUELM KHW JDDW RP GH DFWXHOH EHUHLNEDDUKHLG +LHUELM ZRUGW EHUHLNEDDUKHLG XLWJHGUXNW LQ GH NZDOLWHLW YDQ KHW IXQFWLRQHUHQ YDQ GH LQIUDVWUXFWXXU ELMYRRUEHHOG KHW DDQWDO ILOHV KHW DDQWDO YRHUWXLJYHUOLHVXUHQ GH JHPLGGHOGH UHLVWLMG RI ULMVQHOKHLG WXVVHQKHUNRPVWHQHQEHVWHPPLQJHQ

(31)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

3RWHQWLsOHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGZRUGWLQGH9,-12WRHWVJHEUXLNWRPGHYROJHQGHLQGLFDWRUHQZHHU WHJHYHQ

D GHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQYDQXLWZRRQORFDWLHV E GHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQGHEHURHSVEHYRONLQJYDQXLWZHUNORFDWLHV

'H SRWHQWLsOH EHUHLNEDDUKHLG RIZHO HHQ EHUHLNEDDUKHLGVSRWHQWLDDO LV LQ GH JHRJUDILVFKH OLWHUDWXXU HHQ EHNHQGH HQ YHHO JHEUXLNWH EHUHLNEDDUKHLGVPDDW ]LH ELMYRRUEHHOG +DQVHQ .RHQLJ5LFK0DUWHOODWRHWDO  

 8LWZHUNLQJEHUHLNEDDUKHLGVSRWHQWLDDO

'HDOJHPHQHYRUPYDQHHQSRWHQWLDDOLV :DDUELM :M HHQJHZLFKWELMYRRUEHHOGKHWDDQWDODUEHLGVSODDWVHQLQJHELHGM GLM GHDIVWDQGWXVVHQJHELHGLHQM I G  HHQIXQFWLHYDQGLHDIVWDQG

%LM GH XLWZHUNLQJ YDQ EHUHLNEDDUKHLGVSRWHQWLDOHQ GLHQHQ HHQ DDQWDO NHX]HQ JHPDDNW WH ZRUGHQ'HYROJHQGHNHX]HQ]LMQWHRQGHUVFKHLGHQ

D GH EHVWHPPLQJHQ ZDDUYRRU GH EHUHLNEDDUKHLGVDQDO\VHV ZRUGHQ YHUULFKW ZHUNJHOHJHQKHLGEHYRONLQJUHFUHDWLHYHEHVWHPPLQJHQHWF DOVPHGHGHYHUYRHUZLM]HQ HQ ]LFKWMDUHQ

E KHW UXLPWHOLMNGHWDLOQLYHDX

F KHW YHUORRSYDQGHDIVWDQGYHUYDOIXQFWLH

G GH PD[LPDOHDIVWDQGRIUHLVWLMGGLHZRUGWJHKDQWHHUG

H KHW UHNHQLQJ KRXGHQ PHW YUDDJNHQPHUNHQ YDQ GH EHYRONLQJ ELMYRRUEHHOG LQNRPHQ RSOHLGLQJVQLYHDX  HQ GH DDQERGNHQPHUNHQ YDQ GH EHVWHPPLQJHQ ELMY DDQWDO DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ 

+LHURQGHUZRUGHQGHNHX]HQWRHJHOLFKW

7\SHDFWLYLWHLWHQYHUYRHUZLM]H]LFKWMDDU

,Q GLW RQGHU]RHN ZRUGW YRRU GULH MDUHQ   HQ   HQ WZHH FRPELQDWLHV YDQ YHUSODDWVLQJVPRWLHYHQHQEHYRONLQJVVHJPHQWHQGRRUJHUHNHQGKHWJDDWRPGHEHUHLNEDDUKHLG YDQEHURHSVEHYRONLQJHQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQ PRWLHIZRRQZHUN  HQSHU DXWRHQSHURSHQEDDU YHUYRHU 3RW : I G L M LM M =

Ê

(32)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

5XLPWHOLMNGHWDLOQLYHDX

'HJHJHYHQVGLHELMGHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGVDQDO\VHVZRUGHQJHEUXLNW]LMQ D UHLVWLMGJHJHYHQVXLW KHW/DQGHOLMN0RGHO6\VWHHP E UXLPWHOLMNHJHJHYHQVXLWGH5XLPWHVFDQQHUHQ2SHUD+HW UXLPWHOLMNGHWDLOQLYHDXLVKHWQLYHDXYDQGH/06VXE]RQHVRPGDWGHLQSXWJHJHYHQVRS GLW QLYHDX ]LMQ YHUNUHJHQ 'LW QLYHDX OLJW WXVVHQ KHW JHPHHQWHQLYHDX HQ KHW FLMIHULJH SRVWFRGHQLYHDXLQ

'HUHOHYDQWHUHLVWLMGJHJHYHQVXLWKHW/06]LMQ

 UHLVWLMGSHUDXWRLQFOXVLHIFRQJHVWLHLQGHRFKWHQGVSLWVRSVXE]RQDDOQLYHDX

 DDQJH]LHQ GH ERYHQJHQRHPGH JHFRQJHVWHHUGH  UHLVWLMGHQ SHU DXWR DOOHHQ EHUHNHQG ]LMQ WXVVHQ GH/06VXE]RQHV]LMQYRRUGHLQWUDVXE]RQDOHUHLVWLMGHQGHLQWUD]RQDOHUHLVWLMGHQ SHU DXWR YROJHQV GH ³IUHH IORZ´PHWKRGH ]RQGHU UHNHQLQJ WH KRXGHQ PHW FRQJHVWLH JHEUXLNW

 UHLVWLMG SHU EXVWUDPPHWUR HQ WUHLQ JHPLGGHOG SHU GDJ  'H]H JHJHYHQV ]LMQ JHFRPELQHHUG WRW ppQ UHLVWLMG SHU RSHQEDDU YHUYRHU HUYDQ XLWJDDQGH GDW YRRU HHQ YHUSODDWVLQJDOWLMGGHVQHOVWHYDQEHLGHPRJHOLMNKHGHQZRUGWJHEUXLNW 'HUHOHYDQWHUXLPWHOLMNHJHJHYHQV]LMQ  EHURHSVEHYRONLQJSHU/06VXE]RQH  KHWWRWDOHDDQWDODUEHLGVSODDWVHQSHU/06VXE]RQH $IVWDQGYHUYDOIXQFWLH 'HDIVWDQGVYHUYDOIXQFWLHJHHIWGHNDQVRSLQWHUDFWLHZHHUELMHHQEHSDDOGHDIVWDQGRIUHLVWLMG 9HHOJHEUXLNWHDIVWDQGVIXQFWLHV]LMQPDFKWVIXQFWLHV I G  GD HQH[SRQHQWLHOHIXQFWLHV I G HDG $IVWDQG G NDQGDDUELMZRUGHQJHOH]HQDOVLHGHUHZHHUVWDQGVPDDWGXVRRNDOVUHLVWLMG

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

(33)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

)LJXXUJHHIWKHW ORJORJLVWLVFKH DIVWDQGVYHUYDOYRRUZRRQZHUNYHUSODDWVLQJHQSHUDXWR HQ RSHQEDDUYHUYRHUVRFLDOHHQ]DNHOLMNHYHUSODDWVLQJHQ

)LJXXU$IVWDQGJHYRHOLJKHLGYRRUZRRQZHUNZRRQZLQNHOVRFLDOHHQ]DNHOLMNHYHUSODDWVLQJHQ %URQ+LOEHUVHQ9HUURHQ 

,Q )LJXXU  LV GH DIVWDQGJHYRHOLJKHLG DI WH OH]HQ KRH KRJHU GH OLMQ KRH JHULQJHU GH DIVWDQGJHYRHOLJKHLG :RRQZHUN YHUSODDWVLQJHQ SHU RSHQEDDU YHUYRHU ]LMQ PLQGHU DIVWDQGJHYRHOLJGDQGLHSHUDXWR'HJHPLGGHOGHZRRQZHUNDIVWDQGSHU29LVGDQRRNUXLP WZHHNHHU]RJURRWDOVSHUDXWR+HW]DNHOLMNHYHUNHHULVPHWQDPHRSGHNRUWHDIVWDQG WRW PLQXWHQ DIVWDQGJHYRHOLJRSGHODQJHUDIVWDQGHQPLQGHUJHYRHOLJ8LWGHILJXXUEOLMNWYHUGHU GDWKHWDIVWDQGVYHUYDOLQGHHHUVWHPLQXWHQUHLVWLMG]HHUVWHUNLVHQQDRQJHYHHUPLQXWHQ DIYODNW 0D[LPDOHUHLVWLMG

9HUGHUZRUGWYRRUZRRQZHUNYHUSODDWVLQJHQHHQPD[LPDOHUHLVWLMG 7PD[  JHKDQWHHUG YDQ PLQXWHQ'H]HZDDUGHNRPWRYHUHHQPHWGHERYHQJUHQVYDQGH JHDFFHSWHHUGH ZDDUGHQ YDQPD[LPDOHZRRQZHUNUHLVWLMGHQXLWGHOLWHUDWXXU WRWPLQXWHQ +HWRYHUJURWHGHHO FD   YDQ GH ZHUNHQGH EHYRONLQJ KHHIW HHQ ZRRQZHUN UHLVWLMG YDQ PLQGHU GDQ  PLQXWHQ(HQNOHLQGHHO  YDQGHZHUNHQGH1HGHUODQGHUVSHQGHOWPHHUGDQPLQXWHQ =LHELMYRRUEHHOG*HUULWVH9DQ+DP



9UDDJHQDDQERGNHQPHUNHQ



,Q GLW RQGHU]RHN ZRUGW ELM GH EHUHNHQLQJ YDQ GH SRWHQWLsOH EHUHLNEDDUKHLG JHHQ UHNHQLQJ JHKRXGHQPHWYUDDJHQDDQERGNHQPHUNHQ'DWZLO]HJJHQGHSRWHQWLsOHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQ GH WRWDOH ZHUNJHOHJHQKHLG YDQXLW HHQ ZRRQORFDWLH ZRUGW EHUHNHQG RI DQGHUVRP GH EHUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQGHJHKHOHEHURHSVEHYRONLQJYDQXLWHHQZHUNORFDWLH +LHUELMZRUGWJHHQ UHNHQLQJJHKRXGHQPHW                         UHLVWLMG ND QV RS YHU SO DDW VL QJ

(34)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

D FRQFXUUHQWLHYDQGHEHURHSVEHYRONLQJRSGHDUEHLGVPDUNW RIDQGHUVRPGHFRQFXUUHQWLH YDQ ZHUNJHYHUV RS GH EHURHSVEHYRONLQJ  0HW GH EHUHLNEDDUKHLGVSRWHQWLDDO ZRUGW KHW DDQWDO DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ ELQQHQ HHQ EHSDDOG EHUHLN EHUHNHQG ]RQGHU KLHUELM UHNHQLQJ WH KRXGHQPHWGHFRQFXUUHUHQGHEHURHSVEHYRONLQJELQQHQEHUHLNYDQ GH ZHUNORFDWLHV ]LH ELMYRRUEHHOG+DJRRUW 

E HHQ GHVDJJUHJDWLH YDQ GH EHURHSVEHYRONLQJ HQ GH ZHUNJHOHJHQKHLG ELMYRRUEHHOG QDDU RSOHLGLQJVQLYHDX =R NDQ LQ GH JHKDQWHHUGH EHUHLNEDDUKHLGVSRWHQWLDDO LHPDQG PHW HHQ ODDJRSOHLGLQJVQLYHDX]HHUYHHOEDQHQELQQHQEHUHLNKHEEHQPDDUGLWNXQQHQEDQHQ]LMQ ZDDUYRRUHHQKRJHUHRSOHLGLQJJHYUDDJGZRUGW ]LHELMYRRUEHHOG/HYLQVRQ 



+HW YHUGLHQW DDQEHYHOLQJ ELM YHUYROJRQGHU]RHN QDDU GH SRWHQWLsOH EHUHLNEDDUKHLG YDQ ZHUNJHOHJHQKHLG ZHO UHNHQLQJ WH KRXGHQ PHW FRQFXUUHQWLHHIIHFWHQ HQ GH PDWFK WXVVHQ GH NHQPHUNHQYDQGHEHURHSVEHYRONLQJHQZHUNJHOHJHQKHLG



 &RPSRQHQWHQLQGHSRWHQWLsOHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGVPDDW



(HQYHUDQGHULQJLQGHSRWHQWLsOHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGNDQKHWUHVXOWDDW]LMQYDQGULHFRPSRQHQWHQ D HHQ ZLM]LJLQJ LQ GH RPYDQJ YDQ KHW WRWDOH DDQWDO DFWLYLWHLWHQ LQ KHW RQGHU]RHNVJHELHG

ZHHUJHHIW HHQRPYDQJVFRPSRQHQW 

E HHQZLM]LJLQJLQGHUXLPWHOLMNHVSUHLGLQJYDQGHDFWLYLWHLWHQRYHUKHWRQGHU]RHNVJHELHG HHQ UXLPWHOLMNHFRPSRQHQW 

F HHQ ZLM]LJLQJ LQ GH ZHHUVWDQGHQ KLHU UHLVWLMGHQ  GLH PHQVHQ PRHWHQ RYHUEUXJJHQ RP YDQ HHQ KHUNRPVWORFDWLH QDDU HHQ EHVWHPPLQJVORFDWLH WH JDDQ HHQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUHOH FRPSRQHQW 

0HW EHKXOS YDQ GH EHVFKLNEDUH JHJHYHQV NDQ GH LQYORHG YDQ GH RQWZLNNHOLQJ YDQ GH YHUVFKLOOHQGHFRPSRQHQWHQRSGHYHUDQGHULQJHQYDQEHUHLNEDDUKHLGYDQZHUNJHOHJHQKHLGLQ GHWLMGZRUGHQJHDQDO\VHHUG+LHUGRRUNDQZRUGHQJHDQDO\VHHUGLQKRHYHUUHYHUDQGHULQJHQLQ GHSRWHQWLsOHEHUHLNEDDUKHLGKHW JHYROJ]LMQYDQRQWZLNNHOLQJHQLQDDQWDOHQVSUHLGLQJYDQ DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ HQRI JHZLM]LJGH UHLVWLMGHQ ELMYRRUEHHOG GRRU FRQJHVWLH RI GRRU XLWEUHLGLQJHQ YDQ LQIUDVWUXFWXXU  HQRI HHQ FRPELQDWLH YDQ GH]H WZHH 'H FRPSRQHQWHQ NXQQHQ DFKWHUKDDOG ZRUGHQ GRRU SRWHQWLDOHQ WH EHUHNHQHQ ZDDULQ GH MDDUWDOOHQ YDQ GH JHJHYHQV DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ HQ UHLVWLMGHQ  RQDIKDQNHOLMN YDQ HONDDU YDULsUHQ ,Q SULQFLSH NXQQHQHU YRRUGHDXWRHQYRRUKHWRSHQEDDUYHUYRHU YLHUYHUVFKLOOHQGHSRWHQWLDOHQZRUGHQ EHUHNHQG  2SEDVLVYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQHQUHLVWLMGHQLQ $UEW   2SEDVLVYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQLQHQUHLVWLMGHQLQ $UEW   2SEDVLVYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQLQHQUHLVWLMGHQLQ $UEW   2SEDVLVYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQHQUHLVWLMGHQLQ $UEW  $DQGHKDQGKLHUYDQNXQQHQGHYROJHQGHYHUVFKLOOHQRIRQWZLNNHOLQJHQZRUGHQEHUHNHQG 7RWDOHRQWZLNNHOLQJ $UEW$UEW 2QWZLNNHOLQJDUEHLGVSODDWVHQ $UEW$UEW 2QWZLNNHOLQJUHLVWLMGHQ $UEW$UEW

(35)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ 2QWZLNNHOLQJLQWHUDFWLH $UEW$UEW$UEW$UEW (UJHOGWGDQ 7RWDOHRQWZLNNHOLQJ RQWZDUEHLGVSODDWVHQRQWZUHLVWLMGHQRQWZLQWHUDFWLH $OVPHGH 2QWZLNNHOLQJDUEHLGVSODDWVHQRQWZLQWHUDFWLH $UEW$UEW 2QWZLNNHOLQJUHLVWLMGHQRQWZLQWHUDFWLH $UEW$UEW %LM³RQWZLNNHOLQJDUEHLGVSODDWVHQ´JDDWKHWXLWHUDDUGRPYHUDQGHULQJHQLQGHEHUHLNEDDUKHLG DOV JHYROJ YDQ YHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ GH RPYDQJ HQ GH UXLPWHOLMNH VSUHLGLQJ YDQ GH DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ ELM ³RQWZLNNHOLQJ UHLVWLMGHQ´ RP YHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ GH EHUHLNEDDUKHLG DOV JHYROJYDQYHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ GH UHLVWLMGHQ 'H ³RQWZLNNHOLQJ LQWHUDFWLH´ NRPW RYHUHHQ PHW YHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ GH EHUHLNEDDUKHLG GLH KHW JHYROJ ]LMQ YDQ YHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ DDQWDO HQ VSUHLGLQJ YDQ GH DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ LQ FRPELQDWLH PHW YHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ GH UHLVWLMGHQ 'LW LV HHQYRXGLJ YRRU WH VWHOOHQ DOV KHW DIVWDQGVYHUYDO LQ GH SRWHQWLDDOEHUHNHQLQJ EXLWHQ EHVFKRXZLQJZRUGWJHODWHQHQKHWDDQWDO DUEHLGVSODDWVHQELQQHQ PLQXWHQZRUGW JHWHOG 5RQGRP LHGHUH ORFDWLH ZRUGW HHQ ³FLUNHO´ JHWURNNHQ PHW HHQ GRRUVQHH YDQ  PLQXWHQ UHLVWLMG LQ VLWXDWLH  +HW DDQWDO DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ ELQQHQ GH]H FLUNHO LQ  LV GDQ GH SRWHQWLDDOYRRU'HWRHRIDIQDPHYDQKHWDDQWDODUEHLGVSODDWVHQLQGH]HFLUNHOWXVVHQ  HQ  LV GDQ GH ³RQWZLNNHOLQJ DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ´ 'RRU YHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ FRQJHVWLH LQIUDVWUXFWXXUHQGHUJHOLMNH]DOGHFLUNHOPHWHHQGRRUVQHHYDQPLQXWHQUHLVWLMGLQHU PHHVWDODQGHUVXLW]LHQGDQGHHHUVWHFLUNHO(UOLJWGXVHHQ³ULQJ´WXVVHQGH]HWZHHFLUNHOV +HW DDQWDO DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ LQ GH]H ULQJLQLV GH³RQWZLNNHOLQJ UHLVWLMGHQ´ 'H WRHRI DIQDPH YDQ KHW DDQWDO DUEHLGVSODDWVHQ LQ GH]H ULQJ WXVVHQ  HQ  WHQVORWWH LV GH ³RQWZLNNHOLQJLQWHUDFWLH´

9RRU GH EHUHLNEDDUKHLG SHU DXWR LV KHW WHYHQV LQWHUHVVDQW RP WH ZHWHQ LQ KRHYHUUH GH ³RQWZLNNHOLQJ UHLVWLMGHQ´ KHW JHYROJ LV YDQ YHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ GH PDWH HQ ORFDWLH YDQ FRQJHVWLH HQ LQ KRHYHUUH YDQ DQGHUH YHUDQGHULQJHQ PHW QDPH YHUDQGHULQJHQ LQ GH LQIUDVWUXFWXXU HQ GH PD[LPXP VQHOKHGHQ 'H]H FRPSRQHQWHQ NXQQHQ YDQ HONDDU ZRUGHQ RQGHUVFKHLGHQ GRRUGDW YRRU GH DXWR EHKDOYH GH JHFRQJHVWHHUGH UHLVWLMGHQ RFKWHQGVSLWV  LQ HQRRNGH³IUHHIORZ´UHLVWLMGHQEHVFKLNEDDU]LMQ$DQGHKDQGYDQGH]HODDWVWH UHLVWLMGHQ]LMQWZHHSRWHQWLDOHQXLWJHUHNHQG  2SEDVLVYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQHQIUHHIORZUHLVWLMGHQLQ $UEWII  2SEDVLVYDQDUEHLGVSODDWVHQLQHQIUHHIORZUHLVWLMGHQLQ $UEWII $DQGHKDQGKLHUYDQNXQQHQZHHUWZHHYHUVFKLOOHQRIRQWZLNNHOLQJHQZRUGHQEHUHNHQG 2QWZLNNHOLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXXU $UEWII±$UEWII 2QWZLNNHOLQJFRQJHVWLH $UEW±$UEWII±$UEW$UEWII (UJHOGGDQ 2QWZLNNHOLQJUHLVWLMGHQ RQWZLNNHOLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXXURQWZLNNHOLQJFRQJHVWLH

(36)

SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW

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

 7RHSDVVLQJYDQ0V$FFHVVHQ$UF,QIR



'H EHUHLNEDDUKHLGVDQDO\VHV GLH EHVFKUHYHQ ZRUGHQ LQ GLW UDSSRUW ]LMQ XLWJHUHNHQG PHW JHEUXLNPDNLQJYDQKHWGDWDEDVHSDNNHW0V$FFHVVHQJHYLVXDOLVHHUGPHWKHWVRIWZDUHSDNNHW $UF,QIR0HW0V$FFHVV]LMQGHVXE]RQDOHGDWDHQGHUHLVWLMGHQPDWULFHVJHEUXLNVNODDUJH]HW HQ ]LMQGHSRWHQWLDOHQEHUHNHQG9HUYROJHQV]LMQGHUHVXOWDWHQYDQGH0V$FFHVVEHUHNHQLQJHQ JHs[SRUWHHUGDOV$6&,,EHVWDQGZDDUQDYDQGLWEHVWDQGNDDUWEHHOGHQ]LMQYHUYDDUGLJGPHW $UF,QIR 

 3URJQRVHJHOXLGEHODVWLQJ/DQGHOLMN%HHOG9HUVWRULQJ

+HW PRGHO /DQGHOLMN %HHOG 9HUVWRULQJ /%9  9520   LV GRRU KHW 5,90 LQ VDPHQZHUNLQJ PHW 712 RQWZLNNHOG WHQ EHKRHYH YDQ KHW RS ODQGHOLMNH VFKDDO LQ NDDUW EUHQJHQYDQGHRRU]DNHQHQRPYDQJYDQYHUVWRULQJGRRUYHUNHHUHQYHUYRHUHQKHWJHYHQYDQ EHOHLGVDGYLH]HQRYHUGHKXLGLJHHQWRHNRPVWLJHRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQYHUVWRULQJ

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¶V  G NHQPHUNHQ YDQ GH RPJHYLQJ ERGHPJHVWHOGKHLG HWF  'H JHOXLGHPLVVLH EHUHNHQLQJHQ ZRUGHQ XLWJHYRHUGRSKHWQLYHDXYDQRS PHWHUYLHUNDQWHQ

9RRUKHWVSRRUYHUYRHUZRUGHQHPLVVLHJHJHYHQVYHUNUHJHQYDQGH1HGHUODQGVH6SRRUZHJHQ GLHPHWKHW/%9ZRUGHQYHUWDDOGQDDULPLVVLHVRSJULGQLYHDX9RRUGHOXFKWYDDUWZRUGWGH JHOXLGEHODVWLQJYHUNUHJHQYDQKHW1DWLRQDDO/XFKWHQ5XLPWHYDDUWODERUDWRULXP 1/5 'H DOGXV YHUNUHJHQ JHOXLGEHODVWLQJ YDQ YHUVFKLOOHQGH EURQQHQ ZHJ UDLOYHUNHHU HQ GH OXFKWYDDUW  ZRUGHQ DNRHVWLVFK JHVRPPHHUG RS KHW QLYHDX YDQ   PHWHU YLHUNDQWHQ RPGHWRWDOHJHOXLGHPLVVLHWHEHSDOHQ

(37)

5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ

+HW/DQGHOLMN%HHOG9HUVWRULQJJHHIWGHYROJHQGHUHOHYDQWHUHVXOWDWHQ

œ KHW SHUFHQWDJH YDQ KHW 1HGHUODQGV RSSHUYODN PHW HHQ EHSDDOGH JHOXLGEHODVWLQJ / HWPDDO  +LHUELM NDQ UHNHQLQJ ZRUGHQ JHKRXGHQ PHW JHELHGVJHULFKWH QRUPVWHOOLQJHQ ELMYRRUEHHOGYRRUZRRQZLMNHQRIQDWXXUJHELHGHQ œ KHW DDQWDOLQZRQHUVRIZRQLQJHQGDWZRUGWEORRWJHVWHOGDDQHHQEHSDDOGHJHOXLGEHODVWLQJ DDQ GHJHYHO /HWPDDO  œ KHW RSSHUYODNVWLOWHJHELHGPHWHHQEHSDDOGHJHOXLGEHODVWLQJ /XXU   'H]HPDDWJHHIWKHWGHHOYDQHWPDDO GDJDYRQGRIQDFKW PHWKHWPHHVWHODZDDLDDQZDDUELMGH DYRQGZDDUGHZRUGWRSJHKRRJGPHWG% $ HQGHQDFKWZDDUGHPHWG% $   'H]HPDDWJHHIWGHDNRHVWLVFKJHPLGGHOGHJHOXLGEHODVWLQJLQHHQHWPDDOZHHU

(38)

Afbeelding

Figuur 5.2:  Verhouding aantal arbeidsplaatsen bereikbaar binnen 45 minuten reistijd per auto en OV in de periode 1995-202

Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

VWHOW GDW UHDFWLHV RS HLJHQULFKWLQJ ZRUGHQ EHwQYORHG GRRU NHQPHUNHQ YDQ

8p 6 † Bereken de oppervlakte van V; geef het antwoord in twee decimalen nauwkeurig... In figuur 3 en op de

De examinator past bij zijn beoordeling de normen en de regels voor het toekennen van scorepunten toe die zijn gegeven door de CEVO.. 2 De directeur doet de van de

Een systeem met onvoldoende waarborgen voor tijdige melding aan het algemeen bestuur van budgetoverscbrijdingen heeft het risico in zich dat inbreuk wordt gemaakt op het budgetrecht

‡+RHYHUORRSWGHVRFLDDOHPRWLRQHOHRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQMRQJHQVRSGHEDVLVVFKRRO"

Voor het natuurbeleid heeft dat de volgende consequenties: • een structurele beschikbaarheid van een grote diversiteit aan natuur is niet alleen van belang voor de natuur

:Q KHW >ODQQLQJ ( 4RQWURO#LQVWUXPHQWDULXP LV KHW LQVWUXPHQW WXVVHQWLMGVH UDSSRUWDJH QDMDDU RSJHQRPHQ ZDDUPHH EHVWXXUOLMNH YHUDQWZRRUGLQJ RYHU GH UHDOLVDWLH YDQ GH EHJURWLQJ YDQ GH

&'7FHOOWROHUDQFH DQGLPPXQLW\ 3URHIVFKULIW WHUYHUNULMJLQJYDQ GHJUDDGYDQ'RFWRUDDQGH8QLYHUVLWHLW/HLGHQ