Sea-level rise and groundwater salinization in the coastal
area of Zeeland
A study of the impact of groundwater salinization around the Grevelingen
lake on the livelihoods of the farmers.
The Brouwersdam, which separates the Grevelingen Lake (left) from the North Sea (right). Source: Own picture, made on the 9th of May 2018.
Name: Frida Boone
Student number: 11042893 Supervisor: Dr. Joshua K. Maiyo Bachelor thesis, Social Geography Department of Social Science University of Amsterdam June 18, 2018
Abstract
This thesis presents a research on the social impact of salinization of the groundwater on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen lake. The results of this thesis show that salinization – driven by the sea-level rise – have a negative impact on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen Lake. These impacts are translated in: pressure on the fresh-water lens, a decrease of the quality of the soil and a limitation on the possible crops to grow. Al these impacts have direct effect on the livelihoods of the farmers. Moreover, the incentive of the government to bring back the tide in the Grevelingen lake, to stimulate the water quality, would give the sea-level rise more opportunities to reinforce the impact of the salinization. On the long term, the salinization will have a negative impact on the livelihoods of the farmers around the Grevelingen lake, as a result of pressure to maintain the productivity of their farmlands.
Table of content
1.0 Introduction p. 4
2.0 Research objectives and goals p. 5
3.0 Theoretical framework p. 6
3.1 Effects on climate change p. 7
3.2 Adaption and mitigation p. 7
4.0 Conceptual framework p. 9 4.1 Climate change p. 9 4.2 Sea-level rise p. 10 4.3 Salinization p. 11 4.4 Livelihood s p. 13 5.0 Research location p. 14 5.1 Zeeland p. 14 5.1.1 Land use p. 14
5.1.2 Population and livelihoods p. 16
5.1.3 Zeeland and the sea p. 18
5.2 The Grevelingen lake p. 21
5.2.1 Topographic location p. 21 5.2.2 Recreation sector p. 22 6.0 Methodology p. 23 6.1 Research design p. 23 6.2 Data collection p. 23 6.3 Data analysis p. 25 7.0 Results p. 26
7.1 Trends in sea-level rise and salinity Zeeland p. 27
7.1.1 Salinity in Zeeland p. 27
7.1.2 Influence soil composition p. 29
7.1.3 Influence tidal change p. 31
7.2 Land use and agrarian livelihoods in Zeeland p. 33
7.2.1 Land use p. 33
7.2.2 Agrarian livelihoods p. 35 7.2.3 Impact on livelihoods p. 36 7.2.4 Tidal change on Grevelingen lake p. 37
7.2.5 Long-term p. 39
8.0 Conclusion p. 40
1.0 Introduction
Salinization of soils is a globally occurring process, which has both ecological as social impact (Ramoliya & Pandey, 2003; Rengasamy, 2006; Sanderse, 2016). It leads to salt-effected soils that have impact on agriculture production, the environment and consequently on economic welfare. Salinization occurs in more than 100 countries in the world, all in different dimensions and scales. There is no climate zone in the world where salinization doesn’t occur (Rengasamy, 2006). Climate change and subsequently the sea-level rise – where the saltwater comes from – are the great drivers behind the salinization of the global soil (Herbert et al., 2015). Taking into considering that climate change will increase in the future, due to anthropogenic modifications, salinization is likely to increase in the future (ibid.).
Several studies have shown that salinity in especially low-lying countries have disastrous results for agriculture, infrastructure, fresh-water supplies and subsequently for the stability of communities. The research of Mahmuduzzaman et al. (2014) shows that communities in the low-lying areas in Bangladesh are affected in their fresh-water supplies by the intrusion of salt water into the inland soils. This affects the stability of life for a significant part of the population. Whereas the total affected land by salinity in 1973 was 83.3 million hectares, the total affected land in 2009 was 105.6 hectares. This significant increase is due to the fact that Bangladesh is a low-lying country (under sea-level), where salt water intrusion reaches the fresh ground water sooner than in high-lying countries (Mahmuduzzaman et al., 2014). The outcome of this study is in line with a recent research of the Norwegian Institute of Bio-economy Research (NIBIO) in Vietnam, that shows that low-lying coastal areas are more prone to salt-water intrusion as a result of sea-level rise (NIBIO, 2017). According to this study, this is the result of the often-extensive coastlines and many river deltas of low-lying countries (ibid.).
As a result of the long-term development as a low-lying deltaic location, the Netherlands has experienced increasing salinization due to sea-level rise in the past. This development in the Netherlands is a result of two phenomena. The first one is a balance between the negative demand and supply of sediments, which has resulted in a retreating trend on the Dutch coastline (Kwadijk et al., 2010). Secondly, it is due to the fact that that 60 percent of the land in the Netherlands is located below sea-level (Kabat et al., 2005). Considering that the process of salinization doesn’t show the same effects everywhere it occurs (Rengasamy, 2006), this is also the case for the Netherland; not every part of the country is affected with salinization. In the province of North- and South-Holland, the farmers don’t have to deal with the process of salinization yet because the sweet-water layer is not yet infiltrated with salt-water (Le Gras, Trouw, 2005).
However, in Zeeland – a province along the south coast of the Netherlands – the groundwater system of the coastal area is threatened by salinization (Post, 2004). This is a result of the sea level rise, which started during the Holocene period (ibid.). A well-structured ground water system consists of a spatial distribution of fresh water and saline ground water, where the groundwater is below the seafloor. In the case of the coastal area of Zeeland, the saline water has risen above the traditional level. Due to this, the saline water has put pressure on the fresh water and made his way far inland (Post, 2004).
Considering that the salinization of the ground water goes hand in hand with the sea-level rise, the salinization will hold on and will not only affect the ecological state of Zeeland but also the livelihoods and spatial dimension of Zeeland (Raats, 2015). There are several studies that already examined the ecological effects of salinization in Zeeland (De Boer & Radersma, 2011) and effects on the remaining fresh ground-water in coastal areas (Deltares, 2017, Tuinenberg, 2014). However, less attention has been payed to the effects of ground-water salinization on livelihoods in Zeeland due to the ground-water
salinization (Sanderse, 2016). For this reason, this research is designed to investigate the social dimension of the salinization of the ground-water in Zeeland.
2.0 Research objective and goals
The objective of this research is to create public awareness for the possible impact of sea-level rise on livelihoods on the global scale, through the understanding and analysing of the social and ecological impact of the sea-level rise on the local farmers in Zeeland. This is due to the fact that the global sea-level is rising as a consequence of the climate change – and this will be also the case for the future (Kabat et al., 2005) Moreover, more than one billion people in the world live in low-lying coastal areas and subsequently have to face with the consequences of the sea-level rise (World ocean review, 2010). Research on the consequences of Sea-level rise shows that tens of millions of people are displaced by the sea-level rise in the past century and that economic and ecological systems are damaged (Dasgupta et al., 2008). For this reason, the aim of this research is to find the relation between salinization – as a result of sea-level rise – and the impact of it on the livelihoods of the farmers in Zeeland. The overall aim of this research is to serve as an extension on ecological research that already has been done by several studies on global scale (Dasgupta et al., 2008) and national scale (Kabat et al., 2005; Kadwijk et al., 2010; Post, 2004). Moreover, this thesis builds on a report of the ‘Rijkswaterstaat’ (the ministry of water and infrastructure in the Netherlands) of the Netherlands, that is focused on the economic and hydrologic effects of the water level increase of the Grevelingen Lake, on the agriculture land around the lake (Sanderse, 2016). This report is based on the plan of the government to re-connect the Grevelingen Lake with the sea again, due to water quality interests (Rijkswaterstaat, 2018). However, this plan will affect the rate of salinization in the ground of Zeeland (Sanderse, 2016). Therefore, the plausible impact of this plan will be discussed and included in the data collecting analysis (Sanderse, 2016; Rijkswaterstaat, 2018).
There are some boundaries put on this research. First of all, the time set for this research was four months. Due to this limited time, it is not possible to focus on the whole region of Zeeland but just on a small part of it. Secondly, the time scheduled for the fieldwork is also limited, consequently, the results of the research are therefore from primary sources (farmers and water organizations), who wanted to cooperate within this timeframe.
Finally, this thesis aims to be the reason for further research in the future on the social dimension of the impact of salinization – due to sea-level rise – in the Netherlands and subsequently in the world (De Boer & Radersma, 2011; Deltares, 2017, Tuinenberg, 2014).
To achieve the mentioned aims of this research, the guiding question throughout the research will be: What is the impact of the salinization in Zeeland due to the sea-level rise, on the livelihoods of the farmers in the region around the Grevelingen Lake? The regions around the Grevelingen Lake are defined as the communities of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. Considering that this question could not be answered through one answer, the question will be divided into sub-questions as follows:
1. What are the main impacts of the sea-level rise, on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee?
2. How are the farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee effected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land?
The layout of this research firstly provides a theoretical framework, where the different theories that are used for this study are discussed. Thereafter, the key concepts that are
relevant for this research are presented in the conceptual framework, through defining specifying and operationalizing of the concepts. This is followed by a description of the research location. Here, the focus first of all lies on the province of Zeeland as a whole, where after the details of the Grevelingen lake are presented. Moreover, in the part of the research location, the historical relation between the sea and Zeeland is discussed and the former impact of the sea-level rise, subsequently salinization. Thereafter, the methodology gives a clarification of the research design, including the data collection and the data analysis. It discusses how the data was collected for the quantitative (is there effect?) and the qualitative (how are the livelihoods effected?) parts of the thesis. The methodology also describes the way the data is analysed through the help of different methods and programs.
The outcome of this research is presented in the results. Here, the focus first of all lies on the main impact of the sea-level rise on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. This is discussed through the trends in sea-level rise and salinity in Zeeland and moreover, the influence of the soil composition and the incentive to bring back the tide in the lake. This first part is guided by the first (quantitative) sub-question of the research: What are the main impacts of the sea-level rise, on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee? Here after, the impact of the salinization on the livelihood of the farmers is discussed by focussing on the agrarian livelihoods, the impact on the livelihoods, the tidal change on the Grevelingen lake and at last the long-term impact. The results of the impact of salinization on the livelihoods of the farmers are guided by the second (qualitative) sub-question of this research: How are the farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee effected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land? Finally, the results give answer to the overall research question of this study, which is presented in the conclusion.
3.0 Theoretical framework
There is not one ‘definition’ for climate change; it is a process, a broad process with different dimensions. It includes for example, cultural, social, natural, spatial and economic dimensions. All these dimensions look at climate change from a different perspective. However, these perspectives derive from the same concern: the global warming (Adger et al. 2013; Mearns & Norton 2009; Tol, 2002). The IPCC is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change, which is mostly referred back to in research about the effects of climate change (IPCC website, n.d). Due to this, the definition of climate change from the IPCC is used for this research, which is as follows: “Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity” (IPCC, 1995;1998;2000). Furthermore, for this case study about the salinization of the ground water in Zeeland and the impact on the livelihoods of the farmers – only the natural and spatial dimension are discussed in this section (Adger et al., 2011). First, the main causes of climate change will be discussed (Hardy, 2003).
Earth’s Climate is mainly determined by the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, these are crucial for sustaining life on earth (Lookwood, 1979; cited in Hardy, 2003). However, through the last 100 years, the chemical composition of the earth’s atmosphere is disrupted by human activities like burning oil, coal and gas and cutting away forest. As a consequence, climate has changed. Subsequently, it has had a great impact on the ecosystems on the world, human health and our economy (Hardy 2003, p. 3). The
However, due to the human activities, the atmosphere now also consists of carbon dioxide methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides. These gasses are called greenhouse gasses and affect the radiation balance or heat net of the Earth. Consequently, this has led to global warming (Hardy 2003, p. 4).
3.1 Effects of climate change
The global warming has, among other things, resulted in: the warming of the ocean; decline of the sea-ice; surface loss of the glaciers and the rise of the sea-level. Over the past 100 years, the global mean surface temperature has increased with 0.6 degrees. Moreover, over the last 40 years, the temperature increased by 0.2-0.3 degrees (Hughes, 2000). Climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict that the mean annual global surface temperature will increase with 1.0 - 3.5 degrees by 2100 (IPCC, 1995). Consequently, this means that the impact of climate change and subsequently global warming will be of great influence in the future (Hughes, 2000).
Currently, climate change is causing disruption in social, spatial and ecological system. According to Adger et al. (2011), climate change only becomes important to policymakers when it puts a risk to material aspects of well-being – expressed in economic costs (Adger et al., 2011). However, climate change also affects the ecosystems, landscapes, homes and human health. Moreover, the impact of climate change can lead to irreversible losses of natural biodiversity, which are of value for the social society and their choice of settlement (ibid.). Adger et al. (2011) state that there is a relation between the places of settlement of households and changes in the physical environment of these places. Changes in the physical environment, can influence the feeling of households about the place of settlement. It also could emerge in more interest in the environmental changes, due to climate change, in their area of living. They refer to this as places that are at risk to climate change (Adger et al. 2011).
Subsequently, figure 1 shows the places in the world that are at risk of climate change in the future. The data comes from the IPCC and is provided by the Socioeconomic Data and Application Centre (SEDAC). It shows the climate change vulnerable scenarios for all the countries in the world in 2050 and 2100 (SEDAC, 2018). The darker the colour red a country has, the more vulnerable it is to future climate change scenarios. As the figure makes clear, a significant part of the world countries is vulnerable for climate change impact in the future (ibid.).
3.2 Adaption and mitigation
There are different theories on the adaption and mitigation of climate change; most theories are based on climate scenarios from the IPCC. In the Netherlands, the adaption of water management started in the 1990’s with a publication of the Fourth National Policy Document on Water Management (Ministerie van verkeer en waterstaat, 1998). There were three possible scenarios proposed for the 21st century, which could be used to design adaption strategies on climate change. These were: (1) a lower, (2) a central and (3) an upper estimate. The Committee Water management decided to fit the adaption strategy to the central estimate of the possible scenario. However, four years later, a new generation of scenarios were introduced, based on new insights from the Fourth assessment from the IPCC (Van den Hurk et al., 2007). These new scenarios showed that there were much more possible futures for climate changes. Due to the fact that there was no ‘central scenario’ – that could serve as a norm to fit an adaption strategy – the wider range of climate scenarios were seen as a difficulty. Moreover, considering that the complexity of climate change would increase in the future, another way of adopting strategies was needed (Kwadijk et al., 2010).
As an alternative, there are studies that focus on ‘adaption tipping points’, to prepare for climate change and sea-level rise (Kwadijk et al. 2010) and studies that see climate change as an opportunity for large-scale innovations for the future (Kabat et al. 2005). The study of Kwadijk et al. (2010) comes from a bottom-up approach, which is focused on the improvement of the resilience and robustness of a system that has to deal with climate change. The advantage of this approach is that it is independent from climate projections in the future – in contrast to top-down approaches, where climate scenarios are used as the starting point of the analysis. Using these top-down approaches can lead to a strong limitation of creating adaption strategies, due to the reliance on the climate projections. Moreover, it is not capable to adapt unexpected growth of the size of the problem (Kwadijk et al. 2010; Carter et al., 2007).
Considering that climate change and subsequently sea-level rise are two rising problems in the world and can show unexpected changes in the future, the theory of ‘adaption of tipping points’ of Kwadijk et al. (2010), is a relevant theory to focus on. Moreover, this theory is already applied on the Dutch water management and shows a successful example of an adapting tipping point in Zeeland (ibid).
For this case, ‘adaption’ refers to actions that are targeted at a specific vulnerable system, which is a response to actual or expected climate change. The aim of this action Is to either limit negative impact or exploits positive impact on the vulnerable system. Adaption deals with predictable climate change, non-climate conditions, timing (proactive and reactive) and the time horizon (short-term or long-term actions) (Gladwell, 2000; Kwadijk, 2010). ‘Tipping point’ refers to the point where change in the system is the result of external forcing and no longer requires this external force to sustain in the new pattern of change (Kwadijk, 2010).
Together, Kwadijk et al. (2010), define adaption tipping points as: “… points where the magnitude of change due to climate change or sea-level rise is such that the current management strategy will no longer be able to meet the objectives.” (Kwadijk et al., 2010). Thus, they refer to the points where current management strategies lack the current conditions and impact of climate changes. Subsequently, this will give insights whether and when water management may fail and other strategies are needed. For the case in the Netherlands, the natural boundary for living and working are the starting point for an ATP analysis. The ATP is reached when the system is no longer capable of maintaining proper conditions and achieve objectives for living – due to climate change and sea-level rise. When this happens, alternative strategies are needed to manage and maintain the properties of the system (Kwadijk et al., 2010).
Furthermore, the study of Kabat et al., (2005), shows that adaption and mitigation of climate change could be more focused on the future opportunities, rather than fear and threats. With their theory of ‘climate proofing’, they first of all state that it is possible to use large physical networks to reduce the risk of climate change to a level that is accepted by the society or economy. By this they refer to a mitigation strategy. This will result in opportunities for large scale innovations. Second of all, they state that this risk can further be contested with measurements like insurance schemes or evacuation plans (Kabat et al., 2005).
To do the climate proof a country or a region has to do relevant tests: so-called, climate change tests. There are two climate change tests where the Netherlands has to deal with. The first test is about the capability to cope with the increased risks of flooding in the regions which are already vulnerable. The second test is time related: how much time is there to adapt climate change. In other words: when is it too late? (Kabat et al., 2005).
According to Kabat et al. (2005), there are two basic approaches which could help the Netherlands to combat with the impact of climate change in the future. The first approach is about moving industrial activities, including infrastructure, from below sea-level to higher lands. This is already done in parts of the east of the Netherlands. The second, more futuristic approach, is about creating a so-called ‘hydrometropole’. This is a world in which the inhabitants of the Netherlands learn how to live with and make a living from the water. The data for this last approach is based on an idea of greenhouse horticulture business in the Dutch city of Naaldwijk. Here they have put greenhouses on their own water reservoirs, so they are serving as emergency floodwater storage and at the same time save space (Kabat et al., 2005).
Considering both theories of Kwadijk et al. (2010) and Kabat et al. (2005) for this research, the theory about adapting tipping points is more relevant for this study. First of all because it has proven to work in the past with the Eastern Scheldt surge barrier. Second of all is it a more literature and grounded theory than the one of Kabat et al. (2005). And lastly, the fact that the adapting tipping theory could be used on a broader scale and consist of more features than the theory of Kabat et al. (2005) (Kwadijk et al., 2010).
4.0
Conceptual framework
4.1 Climate change
The main relevant concept for this study is climate change; it is the main driver behind the salinization of the ground-water in Zeeland (Rengasamy, 2006; Raats, 2015; De Boer & Radersma, 2011). Therefore, climate change will firstly be discussed through different literature and researchers (Adger et al. 2013; Mearns & Norton 2009; Tol, 2002; Hardy, 2003; Hughes, 2000; Adger et al. 2011; SEDAC, 2018).
The one thing that all the literature has agreement on, is the fact that climate change is driven by the emission of greenhouse gasses (GHG). However, the study that is of most important for this research is that from Adger et al. (2011). This is due to the fact that they state that climate change is causing disruption in social, spatial and ecological systems. According to Adger et al. (2011) there is a relation between the places of settlement of households and changes in the physical environment of these places – which arise from environmental change that lead to irreversible losses of natural biodiversity (Adger et al., 2011). For this research, the focus will be on the spatial and social effect of salinization of the groundwater in Zeeland. Therefore, the study of Adger et al. (2011) provides relevant literature for the basis approaches of this research.
Regarding to the different theories about climate change, there are two theories that are discussed and compared (Kwadijk et al., 2010; Kabat et al., 2005). The study of Kwadijk et al. (2010), about the Adaption Tipping Point (ATP) theory of climate change is of most important for this research. This study is concerned with the capability of a system to adapt new management and policies when a system reaches a tipping point. (Kwadijk et al., 2010). For the case in Zeeland, this theory will help to give an insight on whether and when water management may fail and other strategies are needed (ibid.).
4.2 Sea-level rise
Sea-level rise is an ongoing process that is a result of the increase of the global temperature and has an uncertain character for the future (IPCC, 2007). One of the most important source for data on sea-level rise is the IPCC. This is due to the fact that IPCC data includes measurements of the uncertainties of the future sea-level rise. The IPCC, therefore, is in this case the most solid and reliable source for data on the sea-level rise (IPCC, fourth assessment 2007). As a result, most of the literature on sea-level rise refer back to data from the IPCC (Klige, 1982; Barnett, 1988; Trupin & Wahr 1990; Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990; Church & White, 2006; Nicholls & Casenave, 2010).
Significant number of studies that confirm the fact that the sea-level has been rising over the last 100 years (Klige, 1982; Barnett, 1988; Trupin and Wahr 1990). According to Warrick and Oerlemans (1990) in a scientific assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), the sea-level have been rising over the last 100 years with 1.0 to 2.0 millimetres per year (Warrick & Oerlemans, 1990). The relative sea-level can be both measured by vertical land movements and to changes in the ocean level. Vertical land movements can result from isostatic movements, sedimentation, tectonic process etc. Subsequently, changes of the ocean level can be affected by atmospheric pressures, winds, ocean currents and density of seawater (Warrik & Oerlemans, 1990). Just like Warrik & Oerlemans (1990), Church and White (2006) also state that the sea-level has been rising over the last 100 years. Moreover, they have found in data from the IPCC, that after the year 1993, the sea-level rise has taken a faster pace than before (Figure 2) (Chruch & White, 2006). This mentioned acceleration of the sea-level rise after 1993, will hold on through the 21th century, according to Nicholls and Cazenave (2010). They state that is will be the result of the remaining global warming. Additional, the fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC forecast that the sea-level will rise with 60 centimetres in 2100 (IPCC, 2007). However, Nicholls and Cazenave (2010) state on the basis of simple kinematics and observations of the velocities of marine-terminated glaciers in Greenland that future ice sheets dynamics can cause a rise of 80 centimetres in 2100 (Nicholls & Casenave, 2010).
In general, the main, direct causes of sea-level rise are: the expansion of the ocean, the increased melting of mountain glaciers and the decline of the size of the Greenland ice sheet (Warrick & Oerlemans, 1990; Nicholls & Casenave, 2010). The indirect causes of sea-level rise climate change, subsequently the increase of global temperature (ibid.). Despite the fact that the emission of greenhouse gasses will decrease in the future, the assessment of the IPCC, predicts that future sea-level rise will be unavoidable due to the delayed effects in the climate system (Warrick & Oerlemans, 1990).
In contrast to the future predictions of the sea-level rise, there is more consensus in the literature on the ecological and social impacts of the sea-level rise. The mentioned effects in the short-term are: (1) increased flooding of coastal land, (2) submergence and (3) saltwater intrusion of surface water. The effects on the long-term could be: (1) increased erosion and (2) saltwater intrusion into groundwater, also called ‘salinization’ (Nicholls & Casenave, 2010; Werner & Simmons, 2011). Coastal zones with dense population, inadequate adaptive capacity and low elevations are the zones which are at
As stated before, the dynamics of the causes of sea-level rise remain uncertain in the future. That is why there is not one prediction about the future sea-level rise where researchers can fully hold on to (IPCC, 2007).
Figure 2. a: the number of locations with data on level rise. b: the division of places where sea-level rise has occurred from 1980-89, c: 1950-1959 and d 1900-1909. Source: Church and White, 2006.
4.3 Salinization
Salinization is defined as a process where groundwater in the soil gets infiltrated by salt water. The process of salinization is one of the effects of sea-level rise and subsequently one of the indirect effects of climate change (Rengasamy 2006, Nicholls & Casenave, 2010). Due to the fact that salinization reacts differently in all countries, it is best explained through the comparison of different, former case studies (Haque, 2006; Khan et al., 2011, Chang-Park et al., 2005; Kim et al., 2003; De Boer & Radersma, 2011). Just like data on sea-level rise, the main source of these researchers is the IPCC. However, the research of Rengasamy (2006) is used as the main source for this research due to the fact that this study considers seawater intrusion as a key source of salinization (Rengasamy, 2006). Nevertheless, case-studies of Haque (2006) and Khan et al. (2011) about the saline water in Bangladesh, are still used to confirm the statements of Rengasamy (2006). The case-studies showed that the saline groundwater, due to tidal flooding, causes unfavourable environmental and hydrological situations for the crop production through the year (Haque, 2006; Khan et al., 2011). Salinization is the most limiting factor for sustainable food production in the coastal area. Due to the loss of crop fertility, it also has a significant socio-economic impact (ibid.). Moreover, the drinking water from sources in coastal areas in Bangladesh have become contaminated by varying degrees or salinity (Kahn et al., 2011). Other studies on the effects of salinization in coastal areas in South-Korea also showed significant impact on ecological conditions and subsequently the socio-economic
conditions (Chang-Park et al., 2005; Kim et al., 2003). According to Chang-Park et al. (2005), at least 60 percent of the well ground waters in the west coastal area of South-Korea are affected by salt-intrusion due to sea-level rise (Chang-Park et al., 2005; Kim et al., 2003).
However, when is water considered saline? Salinity can be measured in different ways. The first measurement used for this research comes from Engineering Geologists William and Godsey (2017) In their presentation about different states of water, salinity refers to the amount of total dissolved solids (TDS). These TDS can be measured by frequently measured by electrical conductivity (EC). This is due to the fact that ions dissolved in water conduct electricity (William & Godsey, 2017). The intensity of salinity is measured in parts per million or Mg/L (ibid.). In their presentation, William and Godsey classified three different stages of water salinity:
Class TDS in Mg/L
1. Fresh water < 3,000
2. Brackish water 3,000 – 10,000
3. Saline Water 10,000
Thus, in this case, the more total dissolved solids a water consists, the more saline it is (William & Godsey, 2017). However, another way of determining the rate of salinity of a soil is to measure the concentration of chloride in the water. This way of measurement is often used by measurements of salinity in the Netherlands (Deltaproof, 2014). Subsequently, the most common standard used in the Netherlands for classifying of saline water is the ‘Stuyfzand’s classification’ originated in 1993. This classification is based on the vulnerability of crops to salt damage and also makes three classifications (Deltaproof, 2014). In the Stuyfzand’s classification, the chloride concentration is measured in mg chloride per liter (mg Cl-/l). This classification is presented in the next table:
Class Mg Cl-/l
1. Fresh water < 1000
2. Brackish water 1000 – 3000
3. Saline water > 3000
Thus, in this case, the more chloride a water consists, the more saline it is. Due to the fact that this technique is common used in the Netherlands and that it is concerned about the damage it brings to the crops, this technique is used to determine the salinity of the groundwater in Zeeland (Deltaproof, 2014).
Every soil has a different soil-water regime and different climate conditions, which all react different of salt-water intrusion and subsequently to the impact of it (US Salinity Laboratory Staff, 1954, mentioned in Rengasamy, 2006). A saline soil has an impact on the quality of the uptake of a plant; a saline soil reduces the ability of a plant to take up water and by ion-excess. This affects the quality of the cells of a plant. Moreover, it produces nutritional imbalance in plants (Rengasamy, 2006). The main sources of salinization are rainfall and rock weathering. However, for coastal areas, seawater intrusion is also a key source of salinization (Rengasamy, 2006).
In comparison to thousand years ago, the soil-level now is four meters lower and the sea-level is one meter higher than in the past. The sea-level rise is namely a consequence of the global warming and the soil-level decline is caused by the clinching of clay and digging up peat. Moreover, the direction of the former sweet-water flow was
towards the see. Currently, the salt water has interrupted this flow by pushing the sweet-water back inland (Le Gras, Trouw, 2005).
4.4 Livelihood
Livelihood is a multi-faceted concept that explains what people do and what they accomplish by doing it. This means that a livelihood refers to both the outcomes of activities of people, as well as the activity itself (Niehof, 2004). It represents: (l) the natural, physical, human, financial and social capital, (ll) the activities and (ll) the access to these activities by institutions and social relations. These three dimensions determine the livelihoods by individuals or households (ibid.). Moreover Scoones (1998) refers to Chambers and Conway (1992) when defining a sustainable livelihood: “livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks, maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets, while not undermining the natural resource base”. (Chambers & Conway, 1992; cited in Scoones, 1998). Considering that the salinization in Zeeland will maintain in the future as a result of the ongoing sea-level rise (IPCC, 2007), livelihoods in Zeeland have to be sustainable to cope with the future impact of the salinization. Therefore, the focus will be on sustainable livelihoods (Scoones, 1998).
According to Scoones (1998), a sustainable livelihood consists of five key elements: (l) creation of working days, (ll) reduction of poverty, (lll) well-being and capabilities, (lV) livelihoods adaption, vulnerability and resilience and (V), natural resource base sustainability. The first three elements are focusing principally on livelihoods, the last two elements add the sustainable dimension to it (Scoones, 1998).
The first element (creation of working days) relates to the ability to create gainful employment for a certain proportion of the year. The concept of employment consists of three main aspects: income (the employers get a wage), production (a consumable output) and recognition (the employment provides recognition for being engaged in a worthwhile process). An employment of 200 days per year will fulfil a livelihood (Scoones, 1998).
The second element (poverty reduction) is a quantitative indicator of livelihood, moreover a key criterion in the assessment of livelihoods. There are several measurements that could determine poverty. Based on income and consumptions, an absolute ‘poverty line’ could be developed. Relative poverty and inequality can be assessed with the Gini coefficient (a standard to indicate the division of inequality and poverty) (Yitzhaki, 1979). However, this quantitative assessment of poverty is of value when it is used in combination with more qualitative indicators of livelihood (Scooner, 1998).
The third element (Well-being and capabilities) goes beyond the material scope of concerns of food intake or income. Well-being is discussed as the ability of people to set up the ‘criteria-line’ of what they think is important for them. This could be developed within different factors like security, happiness, stress, power, vulnerability, exclusion etc. (Chambers, 1989; cited in Scoones, 1998).
The fourth and subsequently the first sustainable element (livelihood adaptation, vulnerability and resilience) is focused on the ability of livelihood to cope with and recover from stresses and shocks. This means that a livelihood is capable of making temporary adjustments in the face of change. Moreover, a livelihood has to be capable to make adjustments on the long-term shifts and changes. This together is called resilience, which is a key element for achieving a sustainable livelihood (Scoones, 1998).
The last element for a sustainable livelihood (natural resource base sustainability) refers to the ability of a livelihood to maintain productivity when a natural resource is disturbed by a stress (a small, predictable disturbance) or a shock (a large, unpredictable disturbance with immediate impact). This means that livelihoods should avoid natural resources with a depleting stock to achieve an effectively decline in the rate at which products and services for livelihoods are depended on natural resources. By this, there
will be less pressure on the natural sources for maintaining livelihoods which brings a sustainable dimension to livelihoods (Scooner, 1998).
Regarding to the livelihoods of the communities in Zeeland, all the elements of Scoones (1998) will be included to determine the impact of the salinization – with a primer focus on the two last sustainable elements (Scooner, 1998).
5.0 Research location
In this part, the relevant background on the province of Zeeland are discussed. It outlines the characteristics of Zeeland related to: (1) The geography and he land use, (2) the population and livelihoods, and (3) the history of the relationship between Zeeland and the sea. Most of this information comes from based on statistics and from the Central Bureau of Statistics in the Netherlands (CBS). After this part, there is focused on the location of interest within Zeeland, the Grevelingen lake and the surrounding area. This information is based on the report of the Rijkswaterstaat on the effects of the tidal changes of the Grevelingen lake on the state of agriculture in the near area (Rijkswaterstaat, 2016).
5.1 Zeeland
5.1.1 Land use
Zeeland is a province in the southwest of the Netherlands and consists of three islands (figure 3). The islands are separated from each other by the Wester- and Easter Scheldt, which are two estuaries which are both in connection with the North Sea. The total geographical size of Zeeland consists of 293.344 hectares, where 143.800 hectares is used for farming, 2.500 hectares for forest, 8.700 is used for nature, 11.100 hectares for build-on land and 13.200 hectares is used for recreation and industrial purposes. This means that 77% of the of the land area in Zeeland is used for farming (CBS Statline, 2017; CBS factsheet, 2010; Rijksoverheid, 2012). Considering that almost all of the soil in the province are clay soils, the farmers take advantages of the high fertility of the soil. Moreover, ‘water’ takes also a significant position in the land area of Zeeland; 114.000 hectares of the total area is covered by water (Province of Zeeland, 2002).
Figure 3. A satellite image of Zeeland and the three islands, with a mark on the Grevelingen lake. Source: GoogleMaps, 2018
Agriculture; crops, animals, land use, region
Subject Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture
Subject Surface Surface Surface Surface
Subject Agriculture, total Potato Grains Sugar beet
Regions area area area area
Groningen (PV) 8400966 2660581 3620251 1378619 Friesland (PV) 2068967 890099 657927 302020 Drenthe (PV) 5815945 2832215 1339216 1261145 Overijssel (PV) 1447343 697468 414952 205456 Flevoland (PV) 6199549 1907565 1414546 1006412 Gelderland (PV) 2076362 567862 934796 296188 Utrecht (PV) 94097 9397 53852 3810 Noord-Holland (PV) 3005273 966122 888335 533168 Zuid-Holland (PV) 3602000 1044869 1278576 521221 Zeeland (PV) 8417936 1942952 2971071 1246024 Noord-Brabant (PV) 6350618 2060710 1550393 1036691 Limburg (PV) 3435650 687302 1283848 744450
Table 1. The categories of agriculture of the 12 provinces in the Netherlands. Source: CBS Statline,
2018.
As stated before, 77% of the area in Zeeland is used as farming (CBS Statline, 2017; CBS factsheet, 2010; Rijksoverheid, 2012). In comparison to the other provinces of The
Netherlands, agriculture in Zeeland is significant more represented (CBS, 2012). Agriculture is of significant importance for the economy of Zeeland, subsequently to sustain the livelihoods of the farmers in Zeeland (CBS, land registry, 2012; Gulok, n.d). Table 1 shows the difference in agricultural area between the 12 provinces of the Netherlands. Furthermore, it shows the categorisation of the different crops within Zeeland. As the table makes clear, most of the agricultural land is used for grains and potatoes (respectively 2971071 and 1942952 squared meters).
5.1.2 Population and livelihoods
Only 2 percent of the surface in Zeeland is used for living area. Around 65 percent of the remaining land is used for agriculture and around 15 percent is used for grassland. Moreover, figure 6 on page 18, shows the overall land use in the Netherlands, including that from Zeeland. The figure shows that the overall degree of urbanity in Zeeland is low and the percentage of agricultural land is high. This is due to the fact that Zeeland contains 2.863 agricultural business, which are mostly maintained by farmer families, who live outside the city (CBS, land registry, 2012). Moreover, the statistic in figure 4 shows that most of the farmers are productive in the agriculture (light blue). Considering that these farmers derive their income from the yields of the land, a significant part of the livelihoods of the population of Zeeland are depended on the quality of the agriculture. As stated before in table 1, most of these farmers produce grains, potatoes and sugar beets (CBS, Statline, 2015). All these crops are salt tolerant crops due to the fact that they don’t have to be irrigated by fresh-water. The exact salt-toleration rate of the crops is showed in the graphic of figure 5. Whereas the quality of grains and sugar beets (deep blue) will be damaged at the salt rate of
approximately 4900 mg Cl/l, potatoes (purple) will be damaged at the rate of 8000 mg Cl/l (AgriHolland, 2015). Considering that the chloride rate in Zeeland is significant higher than 8000 mg Cl/l (further explanation will follow in the results), the crops of the farmers are damaged already (ibid., 2015). Taking into account that climate change will cause more and longer periods of droughts (IPCC, 2007), irrigation will be needed to maintain the quality of the crops (potatoes, grains and sugar beets), which will lead to less salt-toleration (AgriHolland, 2015; IPCC, 2007). Thus, this will put more pressure on the livelihoods of the farmers.
Figure 4. Division of the land in Zeeland, in comparison to the rest of the Netherlands. Source: CBS, Statline, 2015.
Figure 5. Relation between salt-toleration (horizontal) and percentage of damage (vertical). Source: AgriHolland, 2015).
Regarding the population, according to CBS, the total population in Zeeland contains 382.486 people in January 2018. In the future, there will be no population growth in Zeeland for the next 20 years – subsequently, the mean of the age will become higher (CBS, 2018). This has some effects on the livelihoods in Zeeland. First of all, the segment of working people in Zeeland will decrease, which will influence the economic situation of Zeeland. Secondly, the ageing of the population will lead to a less attractive housing market and houses will be abended. For these abandoned houses, there has to be a new purpose. Finally, coastal places will attract more elderly people, which also have an effect on the housing market – proposing more houses focusing on the needs of elderly people. Considering that Salinization of the soil will not lead to positive effects on the livelihood attraction of Zeeland, it will also affect the demographic construction of the population (Zeeuwse Nota Waterkeringen, 2010; CBS, 2018).
Figure 6. Land use in Zeeland in comparison to the rest of the Netherlands. Source: CBS, Land registry, 2012.
The most valuable houses in Zeeland are situated in Walcheren and Schouwen-Duiveland. The houses here, are worth more than 220.00. However, the less valuable houses in Zeeland are also situated in Walcheren, which is remarkable due to the fact that Walcheren is small in comparison to the other regions of Zeeland. Thus, there is a great variance in housing-values in Walcheren. The average selling price of all the house in Zeeland lies around 193.000 euros (CBS, 2016).
5.1.3 Zeeland and the sea
Overall, The Netherlands has struggled with sea-level rise over the past hundred years. Especially for low-lying areas like Zeeland, the rise of the sea-level has caused damage in the past. The flood in February 1953 is the most damaging flood Zeeland has ever faced; it took the life of 1863 people and 150.000 hectare of land was covered with salt water (Van der Ham, 2006). This flood broke through the highly protected system of dikes and dunes, which were constructed by the ‘Rijkswaterstaat’. This is a government department in the Netherlands, that works on a safe, liveable and accessible Netherlands (Rijkswaterstaat, 2012).
The flood of 1953 had both economic as well as socio-economic impacts on Zeeland. The Economic impact relates to the new protection of the coastal areas of both Zeeland as well as the rest of the Netherlands. This included dike raising and dune strengthening. The socio-economic impact of sea-level rise relates to loss of coastal areas, salinization, seepage and drainage problems. Due to the known socio-economic impact of
where they are capable of offer protection against a storm of plus 5 meters N.A.L (Den Elzen & Rotmans, 1992).
As mentioned in the theoretical framework, a water working system can reach a adaption tipping point (ATP): “.. points where the magnitude of change due to climate change or sea-level rise is such that the current management strategy will no longer be able to meet the objectives.” (Kwadijk, 2010). At the end of the last century, Zeeland, and thereby the Netherlands, have reached an ATP: The Eastern Scheldt storm surge barrier. This was the last piece from the Delta Project in the Netherlands, which was introduced to protect the southwest of the Netherlands against flooding. At first, it was mainly build as a flooding defence structure. However, due to increased ecological awareness and social and political pressure, it has developed into an open barrier, where it also served as safety for ecological values and shell fisheries (Mulders & Louters, 1994; Louters et al., 1998; Kwadijk, 2010). The Eastern Scheldt surge barrier is showed in figure 7.
Figure 7. The Eastern Scheldt surge barrier, with the ocean on the left side of the barrier and the Eastern Scheldt on the right side. Source: Maritime News, 2017.
Currently, the KMNI and the delta commission have set up a climate scenario together with the IPCC for Zeeland and have predict a temperature increase of 6 degrease. Moreover, the sea-level will rise with 0.55 to 1.2 meter in 2100 and with 2 to 4 meters in 2200. The soil-level decline is predicted at 5 to 20 centimetres in 2100. Subsequently, the soil-level decline could reinforce the sea-level rise and thereby the salinization of the ground-water in Zeeland (Zeeuwse Nota Waterkeringen, 2010). In comparison to the past prediction in 2006 of the IPCC, the temperature rise is higher and thereby also sea-level rise. (ibid.). For the fact that the sea-level in Zeeland will go on and also will increase, it is relevant to look at the consequences of these changes in the future. Figure 8 below, shows the vulnerable parts to flooding in Zeeland (Data portal Zeeland, 2016).
Figure 8. vulnerable areas to flooding in Zeeland. Source: Data portal Zeeland (2016).
Zeeland has been faced with the consequences of their position as a low-lying delta and the rising sea-level, which started in the Holocene period (Kwadijk et al., 2010; Kabat et al., 2005; Post, 2004). The relationship between geological history and groundwater salinity has been adequately examined by Post (2004), and shows the chloride concentration in the different part of the layers of the soil in the Netherlands in 1993. Figure 9 below shows that the chloride concentration in Zeeland in 1993 was between 10.000 and 20.000 mg Cl-/l in the upper 20 meters of the soil (Post, 2004). Considering that a chloride concentration of more than 3000 mg/l is classified as saline water, it can be concluded that the ground water in the top layer of the soil in Zeeland was already saline in 1993 (Baaren et al., 2010; Oude Essink & de Louw, 2014; Post, 2004).
5.2 The Grevenlingen Lake
5.2.1 Topographic location
The Grevelingen lake is located in the north of Zeeland, between the island Schouwen-Duiveland and Goree-Overflakkee (figure 3). The lake is created through the creation of two dams. The first dam that was created in 1964, which shut the Grevelingen down from the sweet-water from the Volkerak-Zommeer. This resulted in an inflow of only salt-water from the North Sea and this made the Grevelingen Lake an arm of the sea. However, also this opening was shut down in 1971, which created the Grevelingen Lake (Central of Tides, 2013).
Currently, the Grevelingen Lake is the biggest salt-water lake of West Europe. The total size of lake is 110000 hectares and it consist of 3000 hectares of sand-banks and tidal muds, which are valuable for the nature and the living of micro-organisms (Vlaams-Netherlands Scheldt Commission, 2018). The average depth of the lake is 4,5 meters deep. However, in the middle of the lake there is a channel for shipping, which has a depth of 48 meters. Around the lake, there is a dike of 66 meters long. Besides this, there is are the two linking dams: the Brouwersdam (6,5 km) and the Grevelingendam (6 km). The Brouwersdam lies between the North-Sea with the Grevenlingen lake and the Grevelingendam lies between the Grevenlingen lake and the Volkerak-Zoomlake. The two
Figure 9. The chloride concentration of 20, 40, 80 and 120 meters below sea-level in 1993. Source: Post, 2004.
dams are made clear with ‘1’ (Brouwersdam) and ‘2’ (Grevelingendam) on the map in figure 3 (Rijkswaterstaat, 2015). Due to the fact that this thesis is interested in the salinization of the surrounding area of the Grevelingen lake (Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakke), the focus will be on these two islands.
5.2.2 Recreation sector
In contrast to the agricultural sector, the recreation sector benefits from the salinization; the environment of the Grevelingen lake offers the perfect conditions for recreation and tourism. Therefore, there are high interests in the recreation- and the tourism sector of the Grevelingen Lake. Since the closing of the Brouwersdam in 1971, the lake has
become of high natural and recreational value to the municipality of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. The recreation-sector of the Grevelingen Lake offers several day-recreation places, yacht-harbours, water sport islands and small beaches where people can swim. Moreover, the lake is of significant importance for the surfing and diving sector – due to the clear, salt water (Teeuwen&Van Leeuwen, 1997).
However, the lake has become less attractive for recreation due to the fact that ending of the tidal change with the sea resulted in a decrease of the water quality and biodiversity, which became visible since 2011 (Dirkx & Wortelboer, 2011). Thus, for the recreation sector, salinization is seen as a natural and stimulating factor for their sector. Moreover, a new opening in the Brouwersdam – to bring back the tide – will encourage the recreation sector of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee. This incentive will be discussed later on in the results. Figure 10 shows the recreation-sector of the Grevelingen lake, from own observations.
Figure 10. Recreation on and around the Grevelingen lake. Source: own observations, 9th of May 2018.
6.0 Methodology
6.1 Research design
This study uses a mixed-method research design. This means that the research is divided in a quantitative research and a qualitative research (Bryman, 2012)
In the first, more quantitative, part of the research, it is about collecting measurable features and data on ecological changes like sea-level rise and the measurable impact of it. The measurable features presented in the first part of the results are guided by the first sub-question of this research: What are the main impacts of the sea-level rise, on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee? Considering the fact that this question could be answered with methods and data in numerical forms, a quantitative research is suitable (Punch 2013, p. 3).
For the second, more qualitative part, of the results, the second sub question of this research is used as the guiding line. The question ‘How are the livelihoods of the farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee effected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land?’, needs an answer that gives clarification. Moreover, this question, could not be answered in only numerical forms. Due to this fact, empirical qualitative research will be conducted. On the one hand, it is a way of thinking with different approaches, which involves a collection of clusters and methods and non-numerical data (Punch 2013, p. 3). But on the other hand, qualitative research is focused on discovering and clarifying social relations within a research (Flick 2014 p. 11).
As stated before, this research focus on how the communities are effected by the salinization of the land. Thus, this empirical research tries to uncover the social effects, experience/perceptions of salinization. It seeks to find the underlying relation between the effect of the salinization and the impact on the Livelihoods in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee.
Using the mixed-methods strategy brings both the quantitative as well as the qualitative research together at the point where new insights and information requires new data for clarification. In this research that will be the case when the question of the how, that arises from the quantitative research, will be enlightened by the qualitative research of this research (Bryman, 2012).
6.2 Data collection
For the quantitative research, data on measureable phenomena and the ecological differences over time are collected. The collection of the data comes from the last 18 years on sea-level rise and land use in Zeeland, through several studies on this subject in Zeeland. This is the result of the fact that there have been done several studies on the sea-level rise in Zeeland in this period (Van Konigsveld et al., 2008; Beets & van der Spek, 2000). These data come from databases from the data portal of the Dutch government and datasets from the Esri, The Netherlands (Ministry of Foreign Affair 2018; Esri Nederland, 2018). These datasets are suitable to use in GIS.
After processing and analysing the data is used to give answer to the first, quantitative part of the research question, namely: ‘What is the effect of the salinization in Zeeland due to the sea-level rise,…’. This data comes from reports of water organisations and statistic resources like the Rijkswaterstaat, Deltares, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and the Province of Zeeland.
For the second, qualitative part, of the research, the sample population is divided in two groups: (I)The farmers in the surrounding area of the Grevelingen Lake and (II) the people and organizations which are involved by – or interested in – the processes of the salinization in Zeeland. The choice for the first group (the farmers) is made due to the fact
the second part of the research question is about the effect ‘on the livelihoods of the farmers in the region around the Grevelingen Lake.’ This makes it a purposive sampling, where the research question gives an indication about where the data needs to come from (Bryman 2012, 416).
At first, all the contacted farmers said that they would fill in the survey and moreover, send it to more farmer colleagues around the Grevelingen Lake. However, out of the 10 chosen farmers around the Grevelingen lake, only 2 farmers responded to the survey. Unfortunately, this was the outcome after (re-)sending requests to all of the farmers, agricultural corporations and people of the municipality to fill in the survey. The response was still zero after sending reminders and urgent requests to all of the contacted farmers and corporation to co-operate with the survey. By the time of writing, after numerous reminders, they didn’t give any response to the survey. Due to this there is only data conducted from 2 farmers around the Grevelingen lake. However, to supplement the gap in this data I’ve visited a gathering of 3 farmers – including my own uncle – in Borsele. Borsele is a village, situated on the middle island of Zeeland, Walcheren. During this gathering, the three farmers told me about their experiences on the impact of the salinization in Walcheren. Despite the fact that Walcheren doesn’t fall within the research location, the collected data shows interesting results on the impact of salinization in Walcheren.
Furthermore, the choice for the second group of interest – which consists of 5 persons – is made to ensure a wide variation op possible dimensions of interest. This makes the sampling a maximum variation sampling. In this way, the data for this research is derived from different points of view and dimensions, which could lead to new insights and discussion points on the subject at the end of the thesis for possible further research (Bryman 2012, p. 419). The five respondents that are chosen for this research – who also gave permission to reveal their names – are Wim Borm, Louis van der Kallen, Peter van Sante, Jos Hoeijmakers and Wil Lases. The next subsection will give an introduction of these people.
1. Wim Borm. Wim Borm is the head member of the advice bureau Borm&Huijgens. This advice bureau is focussed on the integral water policy on a national scale. Their goals are: (l) water safety, (ll) sufficient fresh-water supplies, (lll) the prevention of salinization and (lV) a qualitative and vital water system for the Netherlands. They give advice and suggestions to existing incentives in the field of integral water policy (Borm&Huijgens, 2018).
2. Louis van der Kalle. Louis van der Kalle is a party chairman of the water organisations ‘ONS WATER’. ONS WATER, which in English means ‘our water’, focus on: (l) water safety, (ll) a balance between people, profit and planet and (lll) creating a vital environment for our future generation (onswater, 2018).
3. Jos Hoeijmakers. Jos Hoeijmakers is a member of the general water board association of the Netherlands. This national, non-political organisation tries to find the balance between Water safety, water policy, water purification and natural water. They support the interests of the inhabitants of the Netherlands (Algemene Waterschappen 2018).
4. Wil Lases. Wil Lases has experience with water governance of the Western-Scheldt in Zeeland and developments that has to do with physical natural waters (Linkedin, 2018).
5. Peter van Sante. Peter van Sante is a member of the environment department of the municipality of Schouwen-Duiveland (Peter van Sante, 2018).
The collection of the data from the two groups is conducted through the use of a survey. However, on both surveys, a different research instrument is used. For the farmers and
two people of the second group, a completion questionnaire is used. The self-completion questionnaire was send by email to the farmers, Wil Lases and Jos Hoeijmakers by email as an attached file. Furthermore, for the three other persons of the second group I conducted different unstructured interviews, where the questions are tailored to the expertise of the person of interest. In total, three interviews were done: two over the phone and one face to face. Figure 11, adapted from the book of Bryman, gives a clear framework of the process of the survey, fixed to this research (Bryman 2012, p. 186).
Besides the above-mentioned tools of survey, observations are also made of the Grevelingen Lake and the surrounding area. This data is collected to get a feeling of the research location. What do people do, what is the environment, what kind of people does the Grevelingen Lake attract etc. (Bryman 2012, p. 431).
Figure 11. The survey framework, copied from Bryman (2012), adjusted to this research. Note: CAPI= computer-assisted personal interviewing, CATI = computer-assisted telephone interview.
6.3 Data analysis
The collected data of both the quantitative and qualitative part of the research first needs to be managed. This means that the data has to be checked and ordered to establish if there are any obvious flaws in the data collection (Bryman 2012, p. 13). For this research, a flaw arose during the transcription of the interviews: It became clear that one interviewee didn’t articulated clearly enough at some points. However, the unwell articulated parts didn’t concern the significant data for the research.
The quantitative data on the salinization rate is partly presented through already existing layer-maps and frameworks from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Besides this, constructed layer maps are adapted from several studies to describe the effect of salinization on coastal areas (Baaren et al., 2010; Wageningen Environmental Research Instute, n.d). Furthermore, data from the Data Portal of the Dutch Government is generated
into a layer map about the salinization rate of Zeeland in comparison to the rest of the Netherlands. This map layer is self-generated through the use of GIS (geographic information system).
For the interviews, the audio material was transcribed, subsequently the resulting textual data was processed using ATLAS Ti, by the means of coding. This data analysis approach is also applied for this research, where 35 are used to determine: the cause; the impact; and the future impact of the salinization around the Grevelingen Lake. Some codes are objective like ‘sea-level rise’ and some are subjective like ‘negative opinion’. However, not all the codes turned out to be significant for the research. The codes that are used are divided over the three mentioned perspectives are and as follows (the cause, the impact and the future):
1. The cause: Sea-level rise, soil decline, significant cause, influences of the past, human activities and cause salinization.
2. The impact: Tide negative, impact farmers, negative, recreation positive, opinion Brouwersdam plan, freshwater-supply, oxygen-less water, freshwater on earth and current situation
3. Future impact: Adjusting farmers, continuous sea-level rise, long-term, negative impact future, future, future-scenario and giving op Zeeland.
After the coding, the useful data is analysed through the use of a ‘coding schedule’, where every relating data on an item is presented. As a result, the useful data came forward and are used in the part of the results of this research (Bryman 2012, p. 13).
7.0 Results
First of all, the results focus on the trends in sea-level rise and salinity in Zeeland, where the current situation of salinity is presented. It gives answer to the first (quantitative) questions of this study, namely: (l) What are the main impacts of the sea-level rise, on the salinization rate in Zeeland and in Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee? Moreover, it includes both the influence of the soil composition as well as the influence of the plan to bring back the tide to the Grevelingen lake – on the rate of the salinization.
Hereafter, the results focus on the impact of the salinization on the land use and the agrarian livelihoods of the communities around the Grevelingen lake. This section gives answer to the last (qualitative) question of this study: ‘How are the farmers of Schouwen-Duiveland and Goeree-Overflakkee effected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land?’. The results first of all focus on how the land use is affected by the salinization around the Grevelingen lake. Furthermore, it shows how the communities are affected in their livelihoods by the salinization of the land – with the focus on the long term to determine the sustainability of their livelihoods (Scooner, 1998). As stated in the data collection section, these results are derived from the data from the perspectives of the farmers and other involved water organizations.
Finally, the results are presented in a framework analysis, which gives an overview of the main findings.
7.1 Trends in Sea-level rise and Salinity Zeeland
7.1.1 Salinity in Zeeland
sea-decline of ground-level is a reinforcing factor (Le gras, Trouw, 2005). The Process of the salinization in the coastal areas of Zeeland is sketched in figure 12 and figure 13. The second figure takes the future sea-level rise into account due to the climate change (Baaren et al., 2010). The figure shows that the salt sea water tries to make a way into the fresh water lens. Furthermore, the sea-level rise will increase this pressure of the salt water intrusion and the pressure on the fresh water lens, which will decrease the volume of this lens. Due to the fact that the infiltration capacity of saline ground water lens is lower than that of fresh-water lens, the infiltration of the rainwater will be delayed. This will lead to accumulation of rainwater and subsequently to flooding (Baaren et al., 2010).
Figure 13. Process of salinization of coastal areas in Zeeland,
taking into account the sea-level rise and the increase in precipitation. Source: Baaren et al., 2010.
Figure 12. Process of salinization of coastal areas in
Zeeland, taking into account the sea-level rise and the increase in precipitation. Source: Baaren et al., 2010.
