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Sea level rise
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Today
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Ice and sea level time scales
Miller et al. 2005!
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Sea ice
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The Cryosphere
Present day estimate of: Antarctic ice sheet
(incl. ice shelves)
Greenland Glaciers
Area (106 km2) 13.8 1.7 0.68
Mean thickness (m) 2079 1707 265
Volume (106 km3) 26.4 2.9 0.18
Sea level equivalent (m) 72.3 7.2 0.51
Accumulation (1012kg yr-1) 2246 ± 86 520 ± 26 670
Runoff (1012kg yr-1) -53 -297 ± 32 -690
Ice berg discharge (1012kg yr-1)
-2072 ± 304 -235 ± 33 -50
Ice shelf basal melt (1012kg yr-1)
-540 ± 218 -32 ± 3 -
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(m w.e. yr-1) 0.163 0.306 0.985
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Global Sea level rise
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[Data IPCC 4AR 2007]
University of Colorado 2009
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Media
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Predictions IPCC 4AR 2007
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Possible mechanisms
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How can ice change it’s mass
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Dynamical imbalance
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Lubrication effect
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The K-transect
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 mean 90-09
Net Balance (m w.e.)
Elevation (m a.s.l.)
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Four years of data (S4)
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Velocity and melt trends
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
melt rate (m/yr) Velocity (m/yr)
Year
kV'.,3-)$'_&RX&lM&
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Key Processes
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-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 WAIS
Ice mass change (Gt/yr)
Year W98
R02 Z05
V06 RA06 H08
C06
R08 0.5 mm SLC
!"),.&"(--&(B&4("8D)_&$(3o.D)*&K0&H.(83*&'.8'6&@CA2&
-100 -50 0 50 100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
EAIS
Mass Balance (Gt/yr)
Year W98
R02 D05
Z05
V06 RA06 H08
C06
R08
New compilation
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-300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
AIS
Mass balance (Gt/yr)
Year W98
R02 D04
Z05
V06 RA06
W06 H08
IPCC 4AR
C06
0.5 mm SLC R08
dM/dt=9 Gt/yr (12 cm SLC/100 yrs)
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-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Mass balance (Gt/yr)
Year
K00 V05
Z05
R06 RA06
C06 V06
L07 IPCC4AR
0.5 mm SLC
-300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
WO08
V09
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Recent data Greenland
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-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
AIS (mm/yr)
Year
IPCC 4AR
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What is Sea level rise!"
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!! Netherlands tilt
!! Gas extraction
!! Peat compaction
!! (ground water
changes)
!! Large differences
sink 60 cm rise 2 cm
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0 50 100 150 200
0 2 4 6 8 10
Ångermanland northern Sweden
-10 0 10 20 30 40
0 5 10 15 20
Andøya
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Bristol Channel & Exmouth Southwest England
-120 -110 -100 -90 -80 -70 -60 -50 -40
10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Sunda Shelf Southeast Asia
-140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0
5 10 15 20 25
Barbados
relative sea level (m)
relative sea level (m)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
0 2 4 6 8 10
time (x1000 calendar years) Richymond Gulf Hudson Bay, Canada
-130 -120 -110 -100 -90 -80 -70
10 20 30 40 50
Bonaparte Gulf Northwest Australia
relative sea level (m)
time (x1000 calendar years) 0 0.5 1 1.5
0 1 2 3 4 6 5 7
Orpheus Island North Queensland
Local sea level rise
L",$#,"&&
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Isaac Newton 1687
!
F = Gm1m2 r2
F = gravitational force (N) m1= mass 1 (kg) m2= mass 2 (kg) r = distance (m)
G = gravitational constant (m3/kgs2)
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Direct gravitational effect
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Local - Global
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Lokaal/globaal (%)
Afstand (km)
De situatie voor Nederland
Patagonia West-Antarctica
Alaska Groenland
Himalaya
Kleine gletsjers
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Local variability in sea level
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Closing the gap
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Do we understand SLC?
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Scandinavia N Europe Mediterrean SE Asia Australia Central Pacific NE Pacific SE Pacific Caribbean W. Atlantic NW. Atlantic
Thermal expansion ice component
glacial isostatic rebound measured
Sea level change (mm/yr)
-7 -56 +150 -77 +218 -15 +91 -252 +4 -21 -1
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Regional sea level change
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Measured sea level change (mm/yr)
Explained sea level change (mm/yr)
r=0.81 (equal weights)
r=0.87 (weighted by number of stations)
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Exploring the high end climate change scenario for flood protection of the Netherlands
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Key question to science
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Ice Dynamics do matter
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
IPCC A1F1 ex, ijsstroming
IPCC A1F1 inc. ijsstroming
Adviescommissie ex ijsstroming
Adviescommissie inc. ijsstroming
Zeespiegelstijging in 2100 (cm eustatisch)
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Implications for the Netherlands
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Time and space scales
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Acknowledgement
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