Macroprudentieel verslag 2019 Nationale Bank België | Vlaamse Federatie van Beleggers

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(1)Macroprudentieel verslag 2019.

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(3) © Nationale Bank van België Alle rechten voorbehouden. &GIGJGNGQHIGFGGNVGNĎMGXGTOGPKIXWNFKIKPIXCPFG\GRWDNKECVKG XQQTGFWECVKGXGGPPKGVEQOOGTEKÇNGFQGNGKPFGPKUVQGIGUVCCPOGV DTQPXGTOGNFKPI.

(4) /CETQRTWFentieel veTUNCI 2019.

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(6) Inhoud Executive summary. 7. Macroprudentieel verslag. 11. A. Inleiding. 11. $ 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP 'EQPQOKUEJGGPƂPCPEKÇNGEQPVGZV .CIGTGPVGQOIGXKPIGP\QGMVQEJVPCCTTGPFGOGPV s $GUEJTĎXKPIXCPFGTKUKEQoU . 12 18 20 22 25 40 44 45. s +ORCEVQRFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQT. . s 2TWFGPVKÇNGOCCVTGIGNGP. 1PVYKMMGNKPIGPQRFGXCUVIQGFOCTMVGP 3.1 s $GUEJTĎXKPIXCPFGTKUKEQoU s +ORCEVQRFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQT. . s 2TWFGPVKÇNGOCCVTGIGNGP. %[DGTGP+6TKUKEQoU s $GUEJTĎXKPIXCPFGTKUKEQoUGPKORCEVQRFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQT s 2TWFGPVKÇNGOCCVTGIGNGP . . . -NKOCCVIGTGNCVGGTFGTKUKEQoU s $GUEJTĎXKPIXCPFGTKUKEQoU. . s +ORCEVQRFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQTGPRTWFGPVKÇNGOCCVTGIGNGP. . #PFGTGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGP s $WHHGTUXQQTPCVKQPCCNU[UVGGOTGNGXCPVGDCPMGP. . s &GUEJCFWYDCPMUGEVQTGPJGVXGTOQIGPUDGJGGT. 'TMGPPKPIXCPFGOCETQRTWFGPVKÇNGOCCVTGIGNGP s 'TMGPPKPIXCPDWKVGPNCPFUGOCCVTGIGNGPFQQTFG$CPM s 'TMGPPKPIXCP$GNIKUEJGOCCVTGIGNGPFQQTDWKVGPNCPFUGCWVQTKVGKVGP. Afkortingen. . 47. 5.

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(8) Executive summary. 1.. +PFGJWKFKIGOCETQƂPCPEKÇNGEQPVGZVDNKLHVFGQRXQNIKPIXCPTKUKEQoUXQQTFGƂPCPEKÇNGUVCDKNKVGKVXCPITQQV DGNCPI0CCUVFGVQGPGOGPFGTGNGXCPVKGXQQTFGƂPCPEKÇNGUVCDKNKVGKVXCPGGPCCPVCNUVTWEVWTGNGVGPFGPUGP GP TKUKEQoU s \QCNU FG FQQTIGFTGXGP FKIKVCNKUGTKPI XCP FG ƂPCPEKÇNG UGEVQT QH FG MNKOCCVIGTGNCVGGTFG TKUKEQoU s YQTFV FG OCETQƂPCPEKÇNG KORCEV XCP GGP CCPJQWFGPFG NCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPI UVGGFU FWKFGNKLMGT *QGYGN GGP UVGTM CEEQOOQFGTGPF OQPGVCKT DGNGKF XCP FG '%$ IGTGEJVXCCTFKIF KU IGNGV QR FG JWKFKIG OCETQGEQPQOKUEJGVQGUVCPFXQTOVJGVCCPVTGMMGPXCPFGMTGFKGVE[ENWUKPVCNXCP'7NCPFGPYCCTQPFGT $GNIKÇGGPDGNCPITKLMGYCCTUEJWYKPIFCVGGPFGTIGNKLMDGNGKFQQMQPIGYKNFGPGXGPGHHGEVGPMCPUQTVGTGP GP GXGPVWGNG TKUKEQoU MCP KPJQWFGP XQQT FG ƂPCPEKÇNG UVCDKNKVGKV &G QRDQWY XCP MYGVUDCCTJGFGP KP $GNIKÇKPFGXQTOXCPGGPQRNQRGPFGUEJWNFITCCFXCPFGJWKUJQWFGPUGPFGQPFGTPGOKPIGPQHXCPGGP VQGPGOGPFGDNQQVUVGNNKPIXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQTCCPQPFGTIGYCCTFGGTFGQPFGTRTKLUFGƂPCPEKÇNGTKUKEQoU MCP QR VGTOKLP FG XGGTMTCEJV GP CDUQTRVKGECRCEKVGKV XCP FG $GNIKUEJG GEQPQOKG CCPVCUVGP KP IGXCN XCP ITQVGUEJQMMGP. 2.. 6GIGPFG\GCEJVGTITQPFsGPIGNGVQRFGITQVGGEQPQOKUEJGQP\GMGTJGKFGPFGCCPJQWFGPFG IGQ |RQNKVKGMG URCPPKPIGP s KU JGV XCP ITQQV DGNCPI FCV GTQXGT IGYCCMV YQTFV FCV FG ƂPCPEKÇNG UGEVQT GP KP JGV DKL\QPFGT FG $GNIKUEJG DCPMGP XGGTMTCEJVKI DNKLXGP *GV DGJQWF XCP TWKOG NKSWKFKVGKVU GP MCRKVCCNDWHHGTU GP JGV XGT\GMGTGP XCP IGRCUVG DWHHGTU XQQT KPVGTPG XGTUVGTMKPI DCKNKP XGTFKGPV FCP QQM CCPDGXGNKPI &GTIGNKLMG DWHHGTU XGTUEJCHHGP FG DCPMGP KOOGTU FG PQFKIG OCPQGWXTGGTTWKOVG QO PGICVKGXG UEJQMMGP QRVGXCPIGPFGEQPVKPWËVGKVXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGFKGPUVXGTNGPKPIVGXTKLYCTGPGPCNFWUFGKORCEVQRFGTGÇNG GEQPQOKGXCPHGPQOGPGP\QCNUIGFYQPIGPFGNGXGTCIKPIVGDGRGTMGP*GVCCPNGIIGP QHDGJQWFGP XCP DWHHGTUFQQT$GNIKUEJGDCPMGPYKPVDQXGPFKGPCCPDGNCPIIGNGVQRFGCCPJQWFGPFGNCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPI FGDNKLXGPFGPQQF\CCMXCPGGPCEEQOOQFGTGPFOQPGVCKTDGNGKFGPFGDGRGTMVGTGOCPQGWXTGGTTWKOVGXCP JGVƂUECCNDGNGKF. . +P FG\G EQPVGZV JGGHV FG 0CVKQPCNG $CPM XCP $GNIKÇ CNU OCETQRTWFGPVKÇNG CWVQTKVGKV KP OGK| GGP PKGWYG OCETQRTWFGPVKÇNG OCCVTGIGN KPIGUVGNF FKG FG TKUKEQIGYKEJVGP XQQT DNQQVUVGNNKPIGP CCP FG $GNIKUEJG TGUKFGPVKÇNG XCUVIQGFOCTMV XGTJQQIV &G\G OCCVTGIGN ICTCPFGGTV FCV GT DGNCPITKLMG URGEKƂGMG MCRKVCCNDWHHGTU YQTFGP CCPIGNGIF FKG FG DGVTQMMGP DCPMGP KP UVCCV OQGV UVGNNGP QO ITQVG PGICVKGXG UEJQMMGPKPFG$GNIKUEJGXCUVIQGFOCTMVGPMTGFKGVXGTNKG\GPQRVGXCPIGPGP\QFQGPFGFGKORCEVXCPGGP FGTIGNKLMUEGPCTKQQRFGTGÇNGGEQPQOKGVGDGRGTMGP. 4.. *QGYGNFG\GOCETQRTWFGPVKÇNGOCCVTGIGNDGRCNGPFKUXQQTJGVDGJQWFXCPFGXGGTMTCEJVXCPFGDGVTQMMGP DCPMGPGPGTXQQT\QTIVFCVFGPQFKIGDWHHGTUYQTFGPCCPIGNGIFYQTFVJKLVQVPQIVQGPKGV QHQPXQNFQGPFG YGGTURKGIGNF KP FG RTKLU\GVVKPI GPQH FG MTGFKGVXQQTYCCTFGP XCP FG XGTUVTGMVG J[RQVJGECKTG MTGFKGVGP $GNIKUEJG DCPMGP DNKLXGP s OGFG IGFTGXGP FQQT FG NCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPI GP FG UEJGTRG EQPEWTTGPVKG QR JWPMGTPOCTMVGPsJ[RQVJGECKTMTGFKGVXGTUVTGMMGPVGIGP\GGTNCMUGMTGFKGVXQQTYCCTFGPGPFKMYKLNUVGIGP TGPVGVCTKGXGPGPOCTIGUFKGPKGVUVTQMGPOGVFGKPJGTGPVGTKUKEQoUGPJWPMCRKVCCNMQUVGP EQUVQHGSWKV[ &GTIGNKLMGQPVYKMMGNKPIGPMWPPGPNGKFGPVQVFGQRDQWYXCPDGNCPITKLMGMTGFKGVRQTVGHGWKNNGUOGVQPFGTOCCVU TGPFGOGPVFKGQRVGTOKLPGGPOCTMVEQPHQTOGUVTWEVWTGNGYKPUVIGXGPFJGKFXCPFGDCPMUGEVQTJ[RQVJGMGTGP GPCNFWUFGKPVGTOGFKCVKGECRCEKVGKVGPXGGTMTCEJVXCPFGUGEVQTXGT\YCMMGP+PFKGEQPVGZVXTCCIVFG$CPM. 'ZGEWVKXGUWOOCT[. 7.

(9) GGP EQTTGEVG GP TKUKEQIGDQPFGP RTKLU\GVVKPI XQQT J[RQVJGECKTG MTGFKGVGP YCCTDKL FG KPJGTGPVG TKUKEQoU XQNFQGPFG IGRTKLUF YQTFGP GP GGP OCTMVEQPHQTO TGPFGOGPV YQTFV XGT\GMGTF &CCTPCCUV KU FG $CPM XCP OGPKPIFCVGGPUWDUVCPVKÇNGXGTOKPFGTKPIXCPJGVCCPFGGNCCPTKUKEQXQNNGJ[RQVJGECKTGMTGFKGVGPGPKPJGV DKL\QPFGTGGPCHDQWYXCPMTGFKGVGPOGVJQIGSWQVKVGKVGP .68oUXCPOGGTFCP PQFKIDNKLHV. 8. 5.. $QXGPFKGPDNKLHVFGQRDQWYXCPU[UVGGOTKUKEQoUPKGVDGRGTMVVQVFG$GNIKUEJGXCUVIQGFOCTMV0GV\QCNUKP GGPCCPVCNCPFGTGNCPFGPXCPJGVGWTQIGDKGFVTGMVFGMTGFKGVE[ENWUKP$GNIKÇUVGTMCCPOGFGCNUIGXQNI XCPFGXGTUPGNNKPIXCPFGITQGKXCPFGMTGFKGVGPCCPPKGVƂPCPEKÇNGQPFGTPGOKPIGP&GXGTUPGNNKPIXCP FGMTGFKGVE[ENWUYQTFVQQMYGGTURKGIGNFKPFGMTGFKGVICRs|GGPUNGWVGNKPFKECVQTXQQTJGVQRXQNIGPXCP E[ENKUEJGTKUKEQ UsFKGPWFGFTGORGNYCCTFGXCP|DDRQXGTUEJTKLFV&G\GFTGORGNYCCTFGYQTFVFQQT JGV'54$CCPDGXQNGPXQQTFGCEVKXGTKPIXCPFGEQPVTCE[ENKUEJGDWHHGT&GEQPVTCE[ENKUEJGDWHHGTYQTFV RTQCEVKGHGPRTGXGPVKGHKPIGUVGNFQOXQNFQGPFGDKLMQOGPFGMCRKVCCNDWHHGTU XGGTMTCEJV CCPVGNGIIGP FKG KP IGXCN XCP GGP ƂPCPEKÇNG TGEGUUKG MWPPGP CCPIGYGPF YQTFGP QO OQIGNKLMG MTGFKGVXGTNKG\GP QR VG XCPIGP GP \QFQGPFG FG EQPVKPWËVGKV XCP FG ƂPCPEKÇNG DCPMKPVGTOGFKCVKG VG ICTCPFGTGP &G $CPM XQNIVFGMTGFKGVQPVYKMMGNKPIGPPCWYIG\GVQRGPUVCCVMNCCTQOFGEQPVTCE[ENKUEJGDWHHGTVGCEVKXGTGP KPFKGP JGV CCPVTGMMGP XCP FG MTGFKGVE[ENWU DGXGUVKIF YQTFV FQQT FG OGGUV TGEGPVG IGIGXGPU 9GN FKGPVVGTFGIGTGMGPKPIIGJQWFGPVGYQTFGPOGVFGJWKFKIGGEQPQOKUEJGQP\GMGTJGFGPGPTKUKEQoUGP OQGVFGOQIGNKLMGRTQE[ENKUEJGKORCEVXCPGGPFGTIGNKLMGOCCVTGIGNXGTOGFGPYQTFGP'GPGXGPVWGNG CEVKXGTKPIXCPFGEQPVTCE[ENKUEJGDWHHGTXGTGKUVFCPQQMGGPPCWYIG\GVVGQRXQNIKPIXCPFGTKUKEQoUGP FG OQIGNKLMJGKF QO GGP FGTIGNKLMG OCCVTGIGN QPOKFFGNNKLM VG JGTTQGRGP KP IGXCN XCP GGP DGNCPITKLMG PGICVKGXGUEJQM. . 'GP CCPVCN UVTWEVWTGNG GEQPQOKUEJG VGPFGPUGP XGTFKGPGP DKLMQOGPFG CCPFCEJV QOFCV \G QR VGTOKLP QQM GGPKORCEVMWPPGPJGDDGPQRFGƂPCPEKÇNGUVCDKNKVGKV0CCUVGGPCCPVCNTKUKEQoUFKGDGVTGMMKPIJGDDGPQR EQPETGVGRQNKVKGMGRTQEGUUGP \QCNUFGDTGZKV XGTFKGPGPQPVYKMMGNKPIGPKPFGFKIKVCNKUGTKPIXCPFGGEQPQOKG FG MNKOCCVXGTCPFGTKPI GP JGV MNKOCCVDGNGKF CNUQQM FG URGEKƂGMG TKUKEQoU XGTDQPFGP CCP YKVYCUUGP QH VGTTQTKUOGƂPCPEKGTKPIFGPQFKIGCCPFCEJV. . &GTKUKEQoUXCPFGDTGZKVDNKLXGPJQQIQRFGCIGPFCUVCCP*GVDGNCPITKLMGXQQTDGTGKFGPFGYGTMFCV\QYGN FQQTFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQTCNUFQQTFGDGVTQMMGPVQG\KEJVJQWFGTUYGTFIGNGXGTFJGGHV\GMGTIG\QTIFXQQTFG PQQF\CMGNKLMGOCCVTGIGNGPGPPQQFRNCPPGPQOFGUGEVQTVGDGUEJGTOGPKPVCNXCPOQIGNKLMGGZKVUEGPCTKQoU *GV MCP KOOGTU PKGV YQTFGP WKVIGUNQVGP FCV FG DTGZKV WKVGKPFGNKLM GGP QPQTFGNKLMG CHYKMMGNKPI MGPV OGV OQIGNKLMGGPKORCEVQRFG$GNIKUEJGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQT. 8.. #NUIGXQNIXCPFGFQQTIGFTGXGPFKIKVCNKUGTKPIGPFGVQGPGOGPFG FKIKVCNG XGTYGXGPJGKFXCPFGXGTUEJKNNGPFG UGEVQTGPKPFGGEQPQOKGPGGOVJGVDGNCPIXCP+6GPE[DGTTKUKEQoUUVGTMVQG*QGYGNFGTIGNKLMGTKUKEQoUKPFG GGTUVGRNCCVUGGPKORCEVJGDDGPQRFGDGVTQMMGPKPFKXKFWGNGQPFGTPGOKPIGPXGTMTKLIGP\GKPFGƂPCPEKÇNG UGEVQTGGPOGGTU[UVGOKUEJMCTCMVGT QCFQQTFGEQPEGPVTCVKGQRURGEKƂGMGVGIGPRCTVKLGPQHCNUIGXQNIXCP IGEQTTGNGGTFGKPEKFGPVGP GPYQTFVJWPKORCEVQRFGƂPCPEKÇNGUVCDKNKVGKVITQVGT. . &CCTPCCUVPGGOVQQMJGVDGNCPIXCPMNKOCCVIGTGNCVGGTFGTKUKEQoUsJGV\KLCNUIGXQNIXCPFGFKTGEVGDNQQVUVGNNKPI CCPFGMNKOCCVXGTCPFGTKPIJGV\KLCNUIGXQNIXCPFGVTCPUKVKGPCCTGGPMQQNUVQHCTOGGEQPQOKGQHJGVFCCTCCP IGTGNCVGGTFGEQPQOKUEJDGNGKFsVQG'GPKPVGITCNGWKVXQGTKPIXCPsKPGGTUVGKPUVCPVKGsJGVMNKOCCVCMMQQTF XCP2CTKLUXGTGKUVQOXCPITKLMGGZVTCKPXGUVGTKPIGPGPKPITKLRGPFGVGEJPQNQIKUEJGKPPQXCVKGUQOFKGVTCPUKVKG GHƂEKÇPVVGQPFGTUVGWPGP&GƂPCPEKGTKPIXCPFKGVTCPUKVKGYQTFVGGPDGNCPITKLMGWKVFCIKPIXQQTFGƂPCPEKÇNG UGEVQTOCCTDTGPIVQQMƂPCPEKÇNGTKUKEQoUOGGYCCTFGUGEVQTVGTFGIGGPVKLFKITGMGPKPIOQGVOGGJQWFGP +P FKG EQPVGZV YQTFV GGP PCWYIG\GVVG QRXQNIKPI XCP FG OQIGNKLMG TKUKEQoU FKG IGRCCTF ICCP OGV GGP FKGRICCPFG VTCPUHQTOCVKG XCP FG GEQPQOKG GUUGPVKGGN XQQT FG DGYCMKPI XCP FG TKUKEQDNQQVUVGNNKPIGP XCP FGKPUVGNNKPIGPGPFGUGEVQTCNUIGJGGN&GƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQTFKGPVDKLMQOGPFCCPFCEJVVGDGUVGFGPCCPFG UVTWEVWTGNGKPVGITCVKGXCPFG\GTKUKEQoUKPJGVTKUKEQDGNGKFGPFGTKUKEQCPCN[UG. 'ZGEWVKXGUWOOCT[ /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

(10) 10.. 6QV UNQV OQGV FG ƂPCPEKÇNG UGEVQT FG JQQIUVG PQTOGP GP FG DGUV RTCEVKEGU KP\CMG YKVYCUUGP GP VGTTQTKUOGƂPCPEKGTKPI DNKLXGP PCNGXGP &KV KU QXGTKIGPU QQM KP JGV DGNCPI XCP FG UGEVQT \GNH +PDTGWMGP QR FGTGNGXCPVGYGVIGXKPIs\QCNUTGEGPVXCUVIGUVGNFDKLGPMGNG'WTQRGUGDCPMGPOGVGGPU[UVGOKUEJGKORCEV|s MWPPGP KOOGTU DGNCPITKLMG RTWFGPVKÇNG IGXQNIGP JGDDGP YGIGPU FG OQIGNKLMG \YCTG UCPEVKGU GPQH JGV XGTVTQWYGPU GP TGRWVCVKGXGTNKGU XQQT FG KPUVGNNKPI +P GZVTGOG IGXCNNGP MCP GGP KORCEV QR FG ƂPCPEKÇNG UVCDKNKVGKV XCP FG UGEVQT PKGV YQTFGP WKVIGUNQVGP 'GP FQQTIGFTGXGP GP TKUKEQIGDCUGGTF VQG\KEJV KP PCWY QXGTNGIOGVFGOKETQRTWFGPVKÇNGCWVQTKVGKVGPCNUQQMGGPDNKLXGPFGCCPFCEJVXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQTXQQTFG\G TKUKEQoUKUFCCTQOOGGTFCPQQKVCCPIGYG\GPGPPQQF\CMGNKLM. 'ZGEWVKXGUWOOCT[. 9.

(11)

(12) Macroprudentieel verslag A. Inleiding &G $CPM YGTF DĎ YGV XCP | CRTKN| 1 QHƂEKGGN CCPIGUVGNF CNU FG $GNIKUEJG OCETQRTWFGPVKÇNG CWVQTKVGKV 1R DCUKU XCP FCV OCPFCCV XQNIV FG $CPM PCWYIG\GV FG QPVYKMMGNKPIGP KP FG ƂPCPEKÇNG UGEVQT GP TKEJV \G \KEJKPJGVDĎ\QPFGTQRJGVQRURQTGPXCPGXGPVWGNGTKUKEQoUFKGFGUVCDKNKVGKVXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQTsGPKP JGVDĎ\QPFGTXCPFG$GNIKUEJGDCPMGPsKPJGVIGFTCPIMWPPGPDTGPIGP9CPPGGTFGTIGNĎMGU[UVGGOTKUKEQoU \KEJ XQQTFQGP MCP FG $CPM FG PQFKIG OCETQRTWFGPVKÇNG OCCVTGIGNGP PGOGP QO FG XGTFGTG QRDQWY XCP FKGTKUKEQoUVGIGPVGICCPGPFGMYGVUDCCTJGFGPGPDNQQVUVGNNKPIGPXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQTCCPFKGTKUKEQoUVG XGTOKPFGTGP&KGOCCVTGIGNGPQOXCVVGPPKGVCNNGGPJGVIGDTWKMXCPKPUVTWOGPVGPFKGTGEJVUVTGGMUQPFGTFG DGXQGIFJGKFXCPFG$CPMXCNNGPOCCTVGXGPUJGVHQTOWNGTGPXCPCCPDGXGNKPIGPCCPCPFGTGCWVQTKVGKVGPFKG IGOCEJVKIF\ĎPURGEKƂGMGDGRCNKPIGPVGKORNGOGPVGTGP 8QQTFGWKVXQGTKPIXCPJCCTOCETQRTWFGPVKGGNOCPFCCVDGUEJKMVFG$CPMQXGTGGPTWKOGYCCKGTXCPKPUVTWOGPVGP FKGIGTKEJV\ĎPQRFGXGTUEJKNNGPFGUQQTVGPTKUKEQoUXQQTFGƂPCPEKÇNGUVCDKNKVGKV'GPCCPVCNXCPFKGKPUVTWOGPVGP JGGHVDGVTGMMKPIQRFGUVTWEVWWTXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGOCTMVGPDGQQIVFGTKUKEQoUVGOCVKIGPFKGXQQTVMQOGPWKV FGDGNCPITĎMGEQPEGPVTCVKGXCPDNQQUVGNNKPIGPXCPDGRCCNFGKPUVGNNKPIGPQHWKV GGPITQVGQPFGTNKPIGCHJCPMGNĎMJGKFXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGKPUVGNNKPIGP<QDGRCCNV De Bank beschikt over een FG$CPMCNUOCETQRTWFGPVKÇNGCWVQTKVGKVKGFGTLCCTFGGZVTCMCRKVCCNDWHHGTUFKG ruime waaier van instrumenten OQGVGPYQTFGPCCPIGJQWFGPFQQTFG$GNIKUEJGDCPMGPFKGU[UVGGOTGNGXCPV FKGIGTKEJV\ĎPQRFG \ĎP XQQT FG $GNIKUEJG ƂPCPEKÇNG UGEVQT GP FKG GGP \YCTG KORCEV MWPPGP verschillende soorten risico’s JGDDGP QR FG TGÇNG GEQPQOKG #PFGTG KPUVTWOGPVGP \ĎP XGGNGGT IGTKEJV QR FGE[ENKUEJGU[UVGGOTKUKEQoUFKGMWPPGPQPVUVCCPQPFGTCPFGTGCNUIGXQNIXCP XQQTFGƂPCPEKÇNGUVCDKNKVGKV \GNHXQGFGPFG YKUUGNYGTMKPIGP VWUUGP GPGT\ĎFU FG MTGFKGVXGTUVTGMMKPI GP CPFGT\ĎFUFGYCCTFGTKPIXCPTGÇNGGPƂPCPEKÇNGCEVKXCFKGDĎFG\GMTGFKGVXGTUVTGMMKPICNUQPFGTRCPFYQTFGP IGDTWKMV 6QV| UNQV DGUEJKMV FG $CPM s CN FCP PKGV UCOGP OGV CPFGTG DGXQGIFG CWVQTKVGKVGP s QXGT GGP CCPVCN KPUVTWOGPVGP FKG OGGT IGTKEJV \ĎP QR URGEKƂGMG TKUKEQoU &KG KPUVTWOGPVGP YQTFGP DĎXQQTDGGNF KPIG\GV QO FG MCRKVCCNXGTGKUVGP CCP VG RCUUGP CCP FG QPVYKMMGNKPIGP QR FG XCUVIQGFOCTMVGP FG OCTMVGP FKG DĎ WKVUVGM U[UVGGOTKUKEQoUVGYGGIMWPPGPDTGPIGP 'GP FQGNVTGHHGPF OCETQRTWFGPVKGGN DGNGKF KU FWU QPFGPMDCCT CNU FG RQVGPVKÇNG TKUKEQoU XQQT FG UVCDKNKVGKV XCP JGV ƂPCPEKÇNG UVGNUGN GP FG FCCTOGG IGRCCTF ICCPFG MYGVUDCCTJGFGP XQQT FG KPFKXKFWGNG U[UVGGOTGNGXCPVG ƂPCPEKÇNG KPUVGNNKPIGP QH XQQT FG UGEVQT CNU IGJGGN PKGV TGIGNOCVKI ITQPFKI YQTFGP IGCPCN[UGGTF /GGT|IGFGVCKNNGGTFGKPHQTOCVKGOGVDGVTGMMKPIVQVJGVOCETQRTWFGPVKGGNDGNGKFUMCFGTMCPIGXQPFGPYQTFGP QRFGYGDUVGMXCPFG$CPM 2. )GNGVQRJGVDGNCPIXCPJGVOCPFCCVXCPFGOCETQRTWFGPVKÇNGCWVQTKVGKVGPQRFGTGKMYĎFVGXCPFGCCPFG$CPM VQGIGMGPFGCEVKGOKFFGNGPJGGHVFGYGVIGXGTXGTUEJKNNGPFGDGRCNKPIGPKPIGXQGTFQOGTXQQTVG\QTIGPFCVFKG. 9GVXCPCRTKNVQVKPXQGTKPIXCPFGOGEJCPKUOGPXQQTGGPOCETQRTWFGPVKGGNDGNGKFGPVQVXCUVUVGNNKPIXCPFGURGEKƂGMGVCMGPXCP FG0CVKQPCNG$CPMXCP$GNIKÇKPJGVMCFGTXCPJCCTQRFTCEJVQODĎVGFTCIGPCCPFGUVCDKNKVGKVXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQT <KGJVVRUYYYPDDDGFQEERPNJGVADGNIKUEJAMCFGTAXQQTAOCETQRTWFGPVKGGNADGNGKFAKPAFGADCPMUGEVQTRFH.. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 11.

(13) PKGWYGHWPEVKGQRVTCPURCTCPVGYĎ\GYQTFVWKVIGQGHGPF<QFKGPVFG$CPMJCCTDGUNKUUKPIGPGPCCPDGXGNKPIGP DGMGPFVGOCMGPGPVGOQVKXGTGP<GOQGVQQMGGPLCCTNĎMUXGTUNCIRWDNKEGTGPGPDG\QTIGPCCPFG8QQT\KVVGT XCP FG -COGT XCP XQNMUXGTVGIGPYQQTFKIGTU YCCTKP \G VQGNKEJV JQG \G JCCT QRFTCEJV QO VQG VG \KGP QR FG UVCDKNKVGKVXCPJGVƂPCPEKÇNGUVGNUGNJGGHVXGTXWNF/GVFKVXGTUNCIXQNFQGV\ĎCCPFKVXGTGKUVG8GTFGTQRYQTFGP FGXGTUEJKNNGPFGCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGP OCETQRTWFGPVKÇNG OCCVTGIGNGPDGURTQMGP. B. Voornaamste risico’s en aandachtspunten en genomen RTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP &G $GNIKUEJG ƂPCPEKÇNG KPUVGNNKPIGP XGTMGTGP KP GGP IG\QPFG ƂPCPEKÇNG UKVWCVKG \QCNU OGV PCOG DNĎMV WKV JWP EQOHQTVCDGNG UQNXCDKNKVGKVURQUKVKG OCCT UVCCP VQEJ XQQT DGNCPITĎMG WKVFCIKPIGP &G XGTUEJKNNGPFG TKUKEQoU GP CCPFCEJVURWPVGP FKG KP FKV /CETQRTWFGPVKGGN XGTUNCI YQTFGP DGJCPFGNF MWPPGP QR VGTOĎP GGP DGFTGKIKPI XQTOGP XQQT FG ƂPCPEKÇNG UVCDKNKVGKV &CCTQO KU JGV XCP GUUGPVKGGN DGNCPI FCV \G YQTFGP QRIGXQNIF GP YCCT PQFKIFCVXGTUEJKNNGPFG OCETQRTWFGPVKÇNG OCCVTGIGNGPYQTFGPKPIG\GV &G GEQPQOKUEJG EQPVGZV RCTCITCCH| YGTF TGEGPVGNĎM IGMGPOGTMV FQQT GGP XGTVTCIKPI XCP FG ITQGK XCP JGV DDRKPJGVGWTQIGDKGFKPGGPMNKOCCVXCPVQGPGOGPFGQP\GMGTJGFGPFKGOGVPCOGXGTDCPFJKGNFGPOGVFG KPVGTPCVKQPCNG JCPFGNUURCPPKPIGP GP FG WKVVTGFKPI XCP JGV 8GTGPKIF -QPKPMTĎM WKV FG 'WTQRGUG 7PKG 6GIGP FKG CEJVGTITQPF JGGHV FG '%$ GGP CEEQOOQFGTGPF OQPGVCKT DGNGKF IGJCPFJCCHF FCV KP JGV DĎ\QPFGT YQTFV IGMGPOGTMVFQQTNCIGDGNGKFUTGPVGU 'GPNCPIFWTKIGRGTKQFGXCPNCIGTGPVGVCTKGXGP RCTCITCCH| \GVGEJVGTFGXQQTPCCOUVGDTQPXCPKPMQOUVGP XCPFGDCPMGPPCOGNĎMJWPKPVGTOGFKCVKGOCTIGQPFGTFTWM*GVTKUKEQXCPGGP\QGMVQEJVPCCTTGPFGOGPV DNĎHVDGUVCCP8QQTFGƂPCPEKÇNGKPUVGNNKPIGPMCPFKG\QGMVQEJVPCCTTGPFGOGPVOGVPCOGVQVWKVKPIMQOGP KP GGP UVGTMG MTGFKGVITQGK FGGNU QPFGTUVGWPF FQQT UQGRGNG MTGFKGVXGTNGPKPIUETKVGTKC QH KP GGP JGTUEJKMMKPI XCP FG DGNGIIKPIURQTVGHGWKNNG KP FG TKEJVKPI XCP TKUKEQXQNNGTG CEVKXC /QEJV FG VQGPCOG XCP FG E[ENKUEJG U[UVGGOTKUKEQoU \KEJ KP FG VQGMQOUV XQQTV\GVVGP \QW FG CEVKXGTKPI XCP FG EQPVTCE[ENKUEJG MCRKVCCNDWHHGT IGTGEJVXCCTFKIF\ĎP 1R FG XCUVIQGFOCTMV RCTCITCCH| KU JGV NCIG TGPVGRGKN JGV F[PCOKUOG XCP FG CHIGNQRGP LCTGP DNĎXGP QPFGTUVGWPGP &KV NCIG TGPVGRGKN JGGHV UQOOKIG DGNGIIGTU GTVQG CCPIG\GV JWP UVTCVGIKG VG JGTQTKÇPVGTGP QR FG XCUVIQGFUGEVQT VGTYĎN FG TGPVGVCTKGXGP XQQT FG XGTMTGIGP ƂPCPEKGTKPI XCP TGUKFGPVKÇNG QH PKGVTGUKFGPVKÇNG XCUVIQGFRTQLGEVGPGGPJKUVQTKUEJNCCIPKXGCWDGTGKMVGPYCVGGPKORCEVMCPJGDDGPQRFGFWWT\CCOJGKFXCP FG YKPUVIGXGPFJGKF QR FG NCPIG VGTOĎP XCP FG MTGFKGVXGTUVTGMMGTU GP JGV TKUKEQ FCV XGTDQPFGP YCU CCP FG VQGIGMGPFG NGPKPIGP PKGV NCPIGT XQNNGFKI YGGTURKGIGNFGP 7KV FG OQPKVQTKPI XCP FG QPVYKMMGNKPIGP QR FG $GNIKUEJG YQPKPIOCTMV DNGGM QQM FCV FG GGTFGT IGËFGPVKƂEGGTFG MYGVUDCCTJGFGP YCTGP VQGIGPQOGP YCV IGNGV QR FG QOXCPI XCP FG DNQQVUVGNNKPIGP XCP FG DCPMUGEVQT KP OGK| JGGHV IGNGKF VQV FG KPXQGTKPI XCP GGP PKGWYG OCETQRTWFGPVKÇNG OCCVTGIGN 9CV JGV $GNIKUEJ EQOOGTEKGGN XCUVIQGF DGVTGHV KU GT CCP\KGPNĎMG XQQTWKVICPIIGDQGMVDĎJGVCCPXWNNGPXCPFGQPVDTGMGPFGIGIGXGPU 0GVCNUCPFGTGUGEVQTGPDGXKPFGPFGƂPCPEKÇNGFKGPUVGP\KEJKPGGPHCUGXCPFKIKVCNGVTCPUHQTOCVKG&KGVTCPUHQTOCVKG ICCV IGRCCTF OGV E[DGTTKUKEQoU \QCNU E[DGTCCPXCNNGP GP OGV +6TKUKEQoU FKG DĎXQQTDGGNF XGTDCPF JQWFGP OGV FG XGTQWFGTKPI XCP FG U[UVGOGP RCTCITCCH| +PFKGP FG\G TKUKEQoU \KEJ DĎ XGTUEJKNNGPFG KPUVGNNKPIGP VGIGNĎMGTVĎF \QWFGPOCPKHGUVGTGP\QWFKVU[UVGOKUEJGIGXQNIGPMWPPGPJGDDGP &G TKUKEQoU XGTDQPFGP CCP FG MNKOCCVXGTCPFGTKPI RCTCITCCH| FKG XQQT FG $GNIKUEJG ƂPCPEKÇNG UGEVQT \ĎP IGËFGPVKƂEGGTF DGVTGHHGP XQQTPCOGNĎM CNVJCPU QR MQTVG VGTOĎP FG WKVFCIKPIGP KP XGTDCPF OGV FG QXGTICPI PCCT GGP MQQNUVQHCTOG GEQPQOKG 1R DCUKU XCP GGP GPSWÆVG DĎ GGP TGRTGUGPVCVKGH UVCCN XCP FG ƂPCPEKÇNG UGEVQT JGGHV FG $CPM GGP TGGMU CCPDGXGNKPIGP IGHQTOWNGGTF XQQT FG $GNIKUEJG DCPMGP GP XGT\GMGTKPIUQPFGTPGOKPIGP. 12. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

(14) 'GP IGCEVWCNKUGGTFG CPCN[UG XCP FG U[UVGGOTKUKEQoU XGTDQPFGP CCP FG UEJCFWYDCPMUGEVQT GPQH CCP JGV XGTOQIGPUDGJGGT RCTCITCCH| JGGHVCCPIGVQQPFFCVFG\GTKUKEQoUPQIUVGGFUTGNCVKGHDGRGTMV\ĎPOCCTFCVFG PKGVEQPVTCEVWGNGXGTRNKEJVKPIGPDKPPGPEQPINQOGTCVGPGGPCCPFCEJVURWPVDNĎXGP #HIG\KGPXCPJCCTCPCN[UGUGPOCCVTGIGNGPOGVDGVTGMMKPIVQVFGDQXGPXGTOGNFGTKUKEQoUJGGHVFG$CPM\QCNU GNMLCCTFGNĎUVXCPFGPCVKQPCCNU[UVGGOTGNGXCPVGDCPMGPQRIGUVGNF RCTCITCCH| 8QQTFG\GKPUVGNNKPIGPIGNFGP CCPXWNNGPFG MCRKVCCNXGTGKUVGP QOFCV JGV KP IGDTGMG DNĎXGP GTXCP CCP\KGPNĎMG IGXQNIGP \QW MWPPGP JGDDGP XQQTJGVƂPCPEKÇNGUVGNUGNQHFGTGÇNGGEQPQOKG&G$CPMJGGHVQQMVYGGPKGWYGOCCVTGIGNGPGTMGPFFKGFQQT DWKVGPNCPFUGOCETQRTWFGPVKÇNGCWVQTKVGKVGP\ĎPIGPQOGP RCTCITCCH| . 1. 'EQPQOKUEJGGPƂPCPEKÇNGEQPVGZV Een onzekerder macro-economisch klimaat /GGTFCPXKGTLCCTNCPIYGTFFGDTGFGGPCCPJQWFGPFGGZRCPUKGKPJGVGWTQIGDKGFIGUEJTCCIFFQQTGGPTGNCVKGH UVCDKGNGEQPQOKUEJGPƂPCPEKGGNMNKOCCV+PFGNQQRXCP|KUFGKPVGPUKVGKVXCPGGPTGGMUTKUKEQHCEVQTGPGP QP\GMGTJGFGP XCP WKVGGPNQRGPFG CCTF GEJVGT VQGIGPQOGP 1R KPVGTPCVKQPCCN XNCM DNGGH FG FTGKIKPI XCP GGP GUECNCVKG XCP FG JCPFGNUURCPPKPIGP DGUVCCP +P 'WTQRC JGGHV FG KPXQGTKPI XCP PKGWYG TGIGNIGXKPI IGNGKF VQV XGTUVQTKPIGPKPFGCWVQRTQFWEVKG&CCTPCCUVYGTFGPUQOOKIGNCPFGP\QCNU(TCPMTĎMGP+VCNKÇIGEQPHTQPVGGTFOGV UQEKCNGFTWMQRGPQP\GMGTJGKFQXGTJGVDGITQVKPIUDGNGKF6QVUNQVJGGHVFGOQIGNĎMJGKFXCPGGPYCPQTFGNĎMG DTGZKV\QPFGTQXGTICPIURGTKQFGKPOCCTV|FGQP\GMGTJGKFKPXGTDCPFOGVFGWKVVTGFKPIXCPJGV8GTGPKIF -QPKPMTĎMWKVFG'WTQRGUG7PKGXGTITQQV*GVWKVUVGNXCP\GUOCCPFGPFCVVQGIGMGPFYGTFCCPFG7-KPCRTKN JGGHVFG\GRGTKQFGXCPQP\GMGTJGKFPQIXGTNGPIF. )TCƂGM 'EQPQOKUEJGEQPLWPEVWWT. –3. BE. EA. US. BE 1. EA 2. 2019. –2. 2018. –2. 2017. –1. 2016. –1. 2015. 0. 2014. 0. 2018. 1. 2017. 1. 2016. 2. 2015. 2. 2014. 3. 2013. 3. 2012. 4. 2013. 8GTVTQWYGPXCPFGDGFTĎHUNGKFGTUKP FGXGTYGTMGPFGKPFWUVTKG. 2012. ,CCTNĎMUGITQGKXCPJGVDDRKPXQNWOG. US 2. $TQPPGP'WTQUVCV(GFGTCN4GUGTXG$CPMQH5V.QWKU+04+5//CTMKV 1 5[PVJGVKUEJGEWTXGXQQTFGXGTYGTMGPFGKPFWUVTKGCNUIGJGGNIGUVCPFCCTFKUGGTFGIGIGXGPU 2 2WTEJCUKPI/CPCIGToU+PFGZ 2/+ IGUVCPFCCTFKUGGTFGIGIGXGPU. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 13.

(15) &G\GEQODKPCVKGXCPHCEVQTGPJGGHVIGNGKFVQVGGPXGTVTCIKPIXCPFGYGTGNFJCPFGNGPGGPCHPGOGPFXGTVTQWYGP XCPFGQPFGTPGOKPIGPGPFGEQPUWOGPVGP6GIGPFG\GCEJVGTITQPFYCUFGXGTVTCIKPIXCPFGDGFTĎXKIJGKFKP JGVGWTQIGDKGFITQVGTFCPCCPXCPMGNĎMXGTYCEJV&GITQGKXCPJGVDDRKUGT De vertraging van de IGFCCNFXCPKP|VQVKP|GP\CNXQNIGPUFG'%$RTQLGEVKGU XCPOCCTV|PCCTXGTYCEJVKPIDGFTCIGPKP|. DGFTĎXKIJGKFKPJGV eurogebied was groter dan CCPXCPMGNĎMXGTYCEJV. *GVDCUKUUEGPCTKQXCPFGOGGUVGRTQIPQUGUICCVGTXCPWKVFCVFGDGFTĎXKIJGKF KP| NKEJV \CN VQGPGOGP OGV GGP ITQGK XCP DĎPC YCV KP FG NĎP NKIV XCP JGV ITQGKRQVGPVKGGN *KGTDĎ YQTFV GEJVGT XGTQPFGTUVGNF FCV FG TGEGPVGNĎMXCUVIGUVGNFGTGOOGPFGHCEVQTGP\WNNGPXGTOKPFGTGPGPFCVQPFGTOGGTGGPCMMQQTFQXGTFGDTGZKV \CNYQTFGPDGTGKMV+P$GNIKÇDGFTQGIFGITQGKXCPJGVDDRKP|+P|\CNFG\GPCCTXGTYCEJVKPI NKEJV XGTVTCIGP 1XGT JGV IGJGGN IGPQOGP DNĎHV FG RQVGPVKÇNG ITQGK KP 'WTQRC GP $GNIKÇ DGRGTMV FQQT FG NCIG RTQFWEVKXKVGKVUYKPUVGPGPFGVQGPGOGPFGKORCEVXCPFGXGTITĎ\KPIXCPFGDGXQNMKPIQRJGVCTDGKFUCCPDQF &G CCP\KGPNĎMG XGTDGVGTKPI XCP FG UKVWCVKG QR FG CTDGKFUOCTMVGP FKG IGNĎMG VTGF JQWFV OGV FG GZRCPUKG XCP FG DGFTĎXKIJGKF KU TGEGPVGNĎM VQV KGVU JQIGTG NQQPUVĎIKPIGP DGIKPPGP VG NGKFGP 6QV FWUXGT MQOGP FG\G UVĎIKPIGPGEJVGTPCWYGNĎMUVQVWKVKPIKPJGVXGTNQQRXCPFGEQPUWORVKGRTĎ\GP&CCTPCCUVKUFGQPFGTNKIIGPFG KPƃCVKGVGPFGPUPQIPKGVKPQXGTGGPUVGOOKPIOGVFGFQGNUVGNNKPIXCPFGEGPVTCNGDCPM&GVQVCNGKPƃCVKGKPJGV GWTQIGDKGFKUDGIKP|NKEJVIGFCCNFCNUIGXQNIXCPFGFTWMXCPFGYGTGNFYĎFGXGTVTCIKPIXCPFGXTCCIQR FGQNKGRTĎUGPFGCPFGTGITQPFUVQHHGPRTĎ\GP *QGYGN \G FG PGVVQCCPMQQR XCP GHHGEVGP QR FG OCTMV GGP JCNV JGGHV VQGIGTQGRGPJCPFJCCHVFG'%$GGPUVGTMCEEQOOQFGTGPFOQPGVCKTDGNGKF <Q DNĎHV \G FG QRDTGPIUV XCP XGTXCNNGP GHHGEVGP JGTDGNGIIGP JGGHV \G FG VGPWKVXQGTNGIIKPIXCPGGPFGTFGRTQITCOOCXQQTIGTKEJVGNCPIGTNQRGPFGJGTƂPCPEKGTKPIUVTCPUCEVKGU VCTIGVGF NQPIGTVGTO TGƂPCPEKPI QRGTCVKQPU s 6.641+++ CCPIGMQPFKIF JQWFV \G FG DGNGKFUTGPVGU NCCI GP XGTUVTGMV \G VGPUNQVVGHQTYCTFIWKFCPEGVGT\CMG. De ECB handhaaft een sterk accommoderend monetair beleid. &GTKUKEQHCEVQTGPYQTFGPYGGTURKGIGNFKPFGRTĎUXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGCEVKXC &GXGTUEJKNNGPFGDQXGPUVCCPFGGNGOGPVGPXGTUVGTMVGPKPJGVNCCVUVGMYCTVCCNXCP|JGVIGXQGNXCPQP\GMGTJGKF XCPFGDGNGIIGTUQRFGDGWTUOCTMVGP&GVQGIGPQOGPQP\GMGTJGKFXCPFGOCTMVGPYCUTGGFUFWKFGNĎMCCPJGV DGIKP XCP FCV LCCT VQGP FG RWDNKECVKG XCP UVCVKUVKGMGP QXGT FG KPƃCVKG GP FG YGTMIGNGIGPJGKF KP FG 8GTGPKIFG 5VCVGP GTQR NGMGP VG YĎ\GP FCV JGV OQPGVCKT DGNGKF UPGNNGT FCP XGTYCEJV \QW YQTFGP IGPQTOCNKUGGTF *KGTWKV DNGGMFCVFGOCTMVGPIGXQGNKI\ĎPXQQTOCETQGEQPQOKUEJGQHDGNGKFUKPHQTOCVKGGPFKVIGNFVFGUVGOGGTKPGGP NCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPIGPDĎNCIGTKUKEQRTGOKGU+P\WNMGUKVWCVKGUMCPGGPTGPVGUVĎIKPIQHGGPJGTPKGWYFGTKUKEQCXGTUKG GT KOOGTU XQQT \QTIGP FCV DGNGIIGTU FG UCOGPUVGNNKPI XCP JWP RQTVGHGWKNNGU UPGN XGTCPFGTGP OGV GGP CDTWRVG EQTTGEVKG XCP FG RTĎU XCP FG OGGUV TKUKEQXQNNG CEVKXC VQV IGXQNI &CV KU RTGEKGU YCV GT KU IGDGWTF KP JGV NCCVUVG MYCTVCCN XCP| VQGP FG DGWTUMQGTUGP GGP UVGXKIG FWKM OCCMVGP CNU TGCEVKG QR FG URCPPKPIGP QR JCPFGNU GP RQNKVKGM IGDKGF +P FG 8GTGPKIFG 5VCVGP FCCNFG FG 52 KPFGZ OGV VWUUGP GKPF UGRVGODGT GP GKPF FGEGODGT VGTYĎN KP 'WTQRC FG 'WTQ 5VQZZ KPFGZ GGP VKGPFG XCP \ĎP YCCTFG XGTNQQT &G\G RGTKQFG YGTF QQM IGMGPOGTMVFQQTGGPVQGPGOGPFGQP\GMGTJGKF\QCNUDNGGMWKVJGVXGTNQQRXCPFGKPFKECVQTGPXCPFGKORNKEKGVG XQNCVKNKVGKVFKGYQTFGPCHIGNGKFXCPFGRTĎUXCPFGQRVKGUQRFGDGWTUKPFGZGP&G\GVQGIGPQOGPQP\GMGTJGKFMYCO VQVWKVKPIKPGGPXNWEJVPCCT\GMGTJGKFYCCTDĎDGNGIIGTUQXGTUEJCMGNFGPQROKPFGTTKUKEQXQNNGCEVKXCOGVPCOG QXGTJGKFUQDNKICVKGUGP\QGGPPGGTYCCTVUGFTWMWKVQGHGPFGPQRFGTGPFGOGPVGPXCPFG\GNCCVUVG 1PFCPMU FG XGT\YCMMKPI XCP DGRCCNFG TKUKEQHCEVQTGP TQPF FG LCCTYKUUGNKPI| \ĎP FG NCPIGVGTOĎPTGPFGOGPVGPXCPFGQXGTJGKFUQDNKICVKGUOGVFGJQQIUVGTCVKPIUXCPJGVGWTQIGDKGFNCCIIGDNGXGP CNUIGXQNIXCPJGVDGUNWKVXCPFG'%$QOJCCTTGPVGVCTKGXGPQPXGTCPFGTFVGNCVGPIGNGVQRJGVTGEGPVGXGTNQQR XCP FG GEQPQOKUEJG KPFKECVQTGP CNUQQM OGGT KP JGV CNIGOGGP XCP FG PQI UVGGFU TGNCVKGH RGUUKOKUVKUEJG EQPLWPEVWWTXQQTWKV\KEJVGPXCPFGOCTMVGP. 14. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

(16) )TCƂGM #CPFGNGPOCTMVGP Voornaamste beursindexen. Impliciete volatiliteit 1. |LCPWCTK|. 45. 150. 40 140 35 130. 30. 120. 25 20. 110. 15 100 10 90. 5 0. 80 2015. 2016. 2017. BEL 20. 2018. S&P 500. Euro Stoxx. 2015. 2019. FTSE 100. 2016. 2017. Euro Stoxx. 2018. 2019. S&P 500. Nikkei 225. $TQPPGP6JQOUQP4GWVGTU4GƂPKVKX 1 8QNCVKNKVGKVUOGVKPIGPCHIGNGKFXCPFGRTĎUXCPQRVKGUQRFGKPFGZGP'WTQ5VQZZ|GP52. )TCƂGM 4KUKEQRTGOKGUQRFGQXGTJGKFUQDNKICVKGUGPFGDGFTĎHUQDNKICVKGU. XGTUEJKNNGPVGPQR\KEJVGXCPFGUYCRTGPVG 1KP. 1XGTJGKFUQDNKICVKGUQR|LCCT. $GFTĎHUQDNKICVKGUQR|LCCTQHOGGT uitgedrukt in euro. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. –1. –1 2015. 2016. 2017. BE. ES. IT. DE. FR. NL. 2018. PT. 2019. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. Met een AAA-rating Met een BBB-rating. $TQPPGP+*5/CTMKV6JQOUQP4GWVGTU4GƂPKVKX 1 1+5TGPVGQR|LCCTQOFGTKUKEQXTĎGTGPVGVGDGPCFGTGP. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 15.

(17) *QGYGN FG CCPFGNGPMQGTUGP \KEJ JGDDGP JGTUVGNF KP JGV GGTUVG MYCTVCCN XCP| DNĎXGP DGRCCNFG IGDGWTVGPKUUGP XCP| FG DGQQTFGNKPI XCP JGV TKUKEQ FQQT FG DGNGIIGTU DGËPXNQGFGP 'PGT\ĎFU KU GT FG QP\GMGTJGKF FKG XQQTVXNQGKV WKV FG CCP\KGPNĎMG UVĎIKPI XCP JGV DGITQVKPIUVGMQTV FKG KP OGK YGTF CCPIGMQPFKIF FQQT FG PKGWYG +VCNKCCPUG TGIGTKPI GP FKG NGKFFG VQV GGP HQTUG UVĎIKPI XCP FG TGPVG QR +VCNKCCPU QXGTJGKFURCRKGT #PFGT\ĎFU NKIIGP FG FQQT DGNGIIGTU XQQT DGFTĎHUQDNKICVKGU IGXTCCIFG TKUKEQRTGOKGU JQGYGN FG\G UKPFU DGIKP| \ĎP IGFCCNF PC GGP UVĎIKPI KP| PQI UVGGFU JQIGT FCP GKPF| OGGT DGRCCNF XQQT FG QDNKICVKGU OGV GGP NCIGTG IGOKFFGNFG MYCNKVGKV PCOGNĎM FG QDNKICVKGU OGVGGP$$$TCVKPI. 2. .CIGTGPVGQOIGXKPIGP\QGMVQEJVPCCTTGPFGOGPV 2.1. $GUEJTĎXKPIXCPFGTKUKEQoU. <QCNU XGTOGNF KP FG XQTKIG RCTCITCCH \ĎP FG PGGTYCCTVUG TKUKEQoU XQQT FG GEQPQOKUEJG ITQGK GP FG KPƃCVKG ITQVGTIGYQTFGPKP|GPDGIKP|$ĎIGXQNIOQGVGPVYGGUEGPCTKQoUKPCCPOGTMKPIYQTFGPIGPQOGP XQQT FG MQTVG VQV OKFFGNNCPIG VGTOĎP GGP CDTWRVG UVĎIKPI XCP FG TKUKEQRTGOKGU GP GGP CCPJQWFGPFG NCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPI *GV GGTUVG UEGPCTKQ \QW \KEJ MWPPGP XQQTFQGP CNU DGRCCNFG PGGTYCCTVUG TKUKEQoU \KEJ OCPKHGUVGTGPOGVPCOGCNUFGIGIGXGPUYĎ\GPQRGGPWKVIGURTQMGPXGTVTCIKPIXCPFGGEQPQOKUEJGITQGK +P FCV IGXCN \QWFGP FG TKUKEQRTGOKGU QR FG ƂPCPEKÇNG OCTMVGP UPGN MWPPGP UVĎIGP YCV JGV MTGFKGVTKUKEQ \QW MWPPGP XGTITQVGP FQQTFCV FG ƂPCPEKGTKPIUXQQTYCCTFGP XCP FG TGÇNG De marktverwachtingen GEQPQOKG \QWFGP XGTUVTGPIGP GP FG YCCTFG XCP FG FQQT FG GEQPQOKUEJG CEVQTGPCCPIGJQWFGPƂPCPEKÇNGCEVKXC\QWXGTOKPFGTGP. IGXGPGGPJQIGMCPUQRGGP scenario van een aanhoudende lagerenteomgeving. 1R DCUKU XCP TGEGPVG CCPMQPFKIKPIGP XCP FG #OGTKMCCPUG (GFGTCN 4GUGTXG GP XCP FG '%$ IGXGP FG OCTMVXGTYCEJVKPIGP GEJVGT GGP JQIGTG MCPU QR GGP UEGPCTKQ XCP GGP CCPJQWFGPFG NCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPI +P FG 8GTGPKIFG 5VCVGPMQPFKIFGJGV(GFGTCN1RGP/CTMGV%QOOKVVGGDGIKP|CCPFCVJGVKPJGVNKEJVXCPFGOQPFKCNG GEQPQOKUEJG GP ƂPCPEKÇNG QPVYKMMGNKPIGP GP XCP FG NCIG KPƃCVQKTG FTWM IGFWNFKI \CN \ĎP QO VG DGRCNGP JQG FG UVTGGHOCTIG XCP FG HGFGTCN HWPFU TCVG KP FG VQGMQOUV OQGV YQTFGP CCPIGRCUV QO FG ITQGK XCP FG GEQPQOKUEJG DGFTĎXKIJGKF GGP UVGTMG CTDGKFUOCTMV GP GGP KPƃCVKG FKEJV DĎ FG FQGNUVGNNKPI XCP VG QPFGTUVGWPGP 8QQT JGV GWTQIGDKGF JGGHV FG 4CCF XCP $GUVWWT XCP FG '%$ VGIGNĎMGTVĎF DGUNQVGP JCCT OQPGVCKTDGNGKFXGTFGTVGXGTUQGRGNGPQOVGYCCTDQTIGPFCVFGKPƃCVKGGGPFWWT\CCOXGTNQQRNCCVQRVGMGPGP KP FG TKEJVKPI XCP GGP KPƃCVKG QPFGT OCCT FKEJV DĎ FG QR OKFFGNNCPIG VGTOĎP &G 4CCF XCP $GUVWWT XGTYCEJVPWFCVFGDGNGKFUTGPVGQPXGTCPFGTFDNĎHVVQVVGPOKPUVGGKPF|GPJGGHVDGUNQVGPQOGGPPKGWYG TGGMU6.641oUVGNCPEGTGP. &GTGPVGEWTXGYGTFUVGTMDGËPXNQGFFQQT FGXGTYCEJVKPIGPKP\CMG JGVOQPGVCKTDGNGKFKP|GPDGIKP| +P FG 8GTGPKIFG 5VCVGP XNCMVG FG TGPVGEWTXG s QR DCUKU XCP FG TGPFGOGPVGP XCP FG QXGTJGKFUQDNKICVKGU s XGTFGTCH6QVKPUGRVGODGT|YCUFG\GCHXNCMMKPIXQNNGFKIVQGVGUEJTĎXGPCCPJGVJGTUVGNXCPFGMQTVG TGPVGKPJGVMCFGTXCPFGPQTOCNKUGTKPIXCPJGVOQPGVCKTDGNGKF&CCTPCYGTFFGCHXNCMMKPIXGTQQT\CCMVFQQT FGFCNKPIXCPFGNCPIGTGPVGVGIGPFGCEJVGTITQPFXCPXQNCVKGNGDGWTUOCTMVGPGPXCPFGDĎUVGNNKPIXCP FG XGTYCEJVKPIGPOGVDGVTGMMKPIVQV FGOQPGVCKTDGNGKFUUVTCVGIKG+PCRTKN|YCUFG#OGTKMCCPUGTGPVGEWTXG PCIGPQGI XNCM &KV HGPQOGGP OQGV PCWYIG\GV YQTFGP IGXQNIF CCPIG\KGP GGP XNCMMG QH IGËPXGTVGGTFG TGPVGEWTXGKPJGVXGTNGFGPGGPXQQTURGNNGTKUIGYGGUVXCPTGEGUUKGUQPIGXGGTÅÅPLCCTXÏÏTGNMXCPFGPGIGP TGEGUUKGU FKG UKPFU | \ĎP XCUVIGUVGNF FQQT JGV 0$'4 YGTF FG TGPVGEWTXG KP FG 8GTGPKIFG 5VCVGP XNCM QH \GNHUIGËPXGTVGGTF 1+PJGVGWTQIGDKGFDNĎHVFGTGPVGEWTXGsIGOGVGPCCPFGJCPFXCPFGQXGTPKIJVKPFGZGF UYCRU 1+5 s UVGKNGT CNU IGXQNI XCP FG CCPJQWFGPF NCIG MQTVG TGPVG FKG JQQHF\CMGNĎM GGP CHURKGIGNKPI KU XCPFGXGTVTCIKPIKPJGVFQQTFGOCTMVGPXGTYCEJVGVTCLGEVXQQTFGPQTOCNKUGTKPIXCPJGVOQPGVCKTDGNGKF 8QQTFGOGEJCPKUOGPFKGVGPITQPFUNCINKIIGPCCPJGVXGTDCPFVWUUGPFGTGPVGEWTXGGPFGTGEGUUKGUYQTFVXGTYG\GPPCCTGGPCTVKMGNWKV JGV'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHVXCPFG$CPMXCPLWPK. 16. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

(18) )TCƂGM 4GPVGEWTXGU. KP. Verenigde Staten 1. Eurogebied 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. –1. –1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. .QQRVĎF LCTGP . 8. 9. 10. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. .QQRVĎF LCTGP. &GEGODGT| IGOKFFGNFG 5GRVGODGT| IGOKFFGNFG |CRTKN|. $TQPPGP6JQOUQP4GWVGTU4GƂPKVKX 1 4GPFGOGPVXCPFGQXGTJGKFUQDNKICVKGU 2 1+5TGPVG. +PFKVXGTDCPFOQGVYQTFGPQRIGOGTMVFCVFGTGEGPVGFCNKPIXCPFGNCPIGTGPVGJGGHVIGNGKFVQVGGPNKEJVG XGTXNCMMKPI XCP FG EWTXG YCCTFQQT FG XGTYCEJVG KORNKEKGVG TGPVG HQTYCTF [KGNF CCPIGGHV FCV FG GGPLCCTU 1+5TGPVGPGICVKGH\CNDNĎXGPVQVKP|| \QPFGTTGMGPKPIVGJQWFGPOGVFGTKUKEQRTGOKGU #NUFGDGNGKFUTGPVGUXCPFG'%$QRJWPJWKFKIGPKXGCWUDNĎXGP\CNFKVsXKCFGVTCPUOKUUKGOGEJCPKUOGPXCPJGV OQPGVCKTDGNGKFsQQMXCPKPXNQGF\ĎPQRFGCPFGTGUQQTVGPTGPVGYCCTQPFGTFGTGPVGXCPFGDCPMNGPKPIGPFKG YQTFGPVQGIGMGPFCCPFGTGÇNGGEQPQOKG'GPNCPIFWTKIGNCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPIJQWFVDĎIGXQNIQQMGGPCCPVCN TKUKEQoUKPXQQTFGƂPCPEKÇNGUVCDKNKVGKVRTGEKGUQOFCVGGPFGTIGNĎMGQOIGXKPIYGGIVQRFGYKPUVIGXGPFJGKFXCP FGƂPCPEKÇNGKPVGTOGFKCKTUGPJGPCCP\GVVQVGGP\QGMVQEJVPCCTTGPFGOGPV. UGCTEJHQT[KGNF &G\G\QGMVQEJVPCCTTGPFGOGPVMQOVFQQTICCPUVQVWKVKPI &GTGNCVKGHJQIGITQGKEĎHGTU KP GGP JGTUEJKMMKPI XCP FG RQTVGHGWKNNGU KP FG TKEJVKPI XCP OGGT TKUKEQXQNNG voor de kredietverlening GPQHOKPFGTNKSWKFGCEVKXCFKGGGPJQIGTTGPFGOGPVDKGFGP. CCPFGTGÇNGGEQPQOKG &GTGNCVKGHJQIGITQGKEĎHGTUXQQTFGMTGFKGVXGTNGPKPICCPFGTGÇNGGEQPQOKG YGGTURKGIGNGPFGGNUGGP YGGTURKGIGNGP FGGNU GGP \QGMVQEJV PCCT TGPFGOGPV XCP FG $GNIKUEJG zoektocht naar rendement DCPMGP&G\GEĎHGTU\ĎPOGVPCOGVQGVGUEJTĎXGPCCPJGVIGDTWKMXCPFG van de Belgische banken GZVTCOKFFGNGPYCCTQXGTFGDCPMGPDGUEJKMVGPPCGGPXGTFGTGVQGPCOGXCP FG IGTGINGOGPVGGTFG URCCTFGRQUKVQoU XCP FG JWKUJQWFGPU 1PFCPMU JWP NCIGTGPFGOGPVUVGIGPFG\GFGRQUKVQoUXCPa|OKNLCTFKPLCPWCTK|VQVa|OKNLCTFKPOCCTV| FQQTFCVJWKUJQWFGPUFGXQQTMGWTICXGPCCPFGXGKNKIJGKFGPFGNKSWKFKVGKVXCPDCPMFGRQUKVQoUKPGGPEQPVGZV XCP ITQVGTG GEQPQOKUEJG QP\GMGTJGKF 6GIGNĎMGTVĎF DNGXGP FG ITQGKEĎHGTU XQQT FG DCPECKTG MTGFKGVXGTNGPKPI CCP FG PKGVƂPCPEKÇNG RTKXCVG UGEVQT QR GGP TGNCVKGH JQQI PKXGCW /GGT URGEKƂGM DGFTQGI FG LCCTNĎMUG ITQGK XCP FG MTGFKGVXGTNGPKPI CCP FG JWKUJQWFGPU GXGPCNU FKG CCP FG PKGVƂPCPEKÇNG QPFGTPGOKPIGP KP OCCTV. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 17.

(19) )TCƂGM ,CCTNĎMUGMTGFKGVITQGK 1. KP. 0KGVƂPCPEKÇNGQPFGTPGOKPIGP. 2019. 2017. 2015. 2013. 2011. 2009. –5 2019. –5 2017. –5. 2015. 0. 2013. 0. 2011. 0. 2009. 5. 2007. 5. 2005. 5. 2019. 10. 2017. 10. 2015. 10. 2013. 15. 2011. 15. 2009. 15. 2007. 20. 2005. 20. 2007. 0KGVƂPCPEKÇNGRTKXCVGUGEVQT. 20. 2005. Huishoudens. België Eurogebied. $TQPPGP'%$0$$ 1 &QQTDKPPGPNCPFUGDCPMGPCCP$GNIKUEJGKPIG\GVGPGPVQGIGMGPFGNGPKPIGPYCCTQPFGTIGÇHHGEVKUGGTFGNGPKPIGP. 2.2. +ORCEVQRFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQT. #NIGOGGP DGUEJQWYF XGTMGTGP FG $GNIKUEJG DCPMGP KP GGP IG\QPFG ƂPCPEKÇNG UKVWCVKG *GV TGPFGOGPV XCP JGV GKIGP XGTOQIGP XCP FG UGEVQT DGFTQGI KP| YGNKUYCCT OKPFGT FCP KP| OCCT PQI UVGGFU XGGN OGGT FCP FG IGOKFFGNFG TCVKQ XCP JGV GWTQIGDKGF &G NCPIFWTKIG RGTKQFG XCP NCIG TGPVGVCTKGXGP FTWMV GEJVGT UVGGFU OGGT QR FG KPVGTOGFKCVKGOCTIG FG XQQTPCCOUVG DTQP XCP KPMQOUVGP XCP FG DCPMGP &G NCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPI XQTOV QQM GGP ITQVG &GNCPIFWTKIGRGTKQFGXCP WKVFCIKPI XQQT FG XGT\GMGTKPIUQPFGTPGOKPIGP GP KP JGV DĎ\QPFGT XQQT FG lage rentetarieven drukt steeds NGXGPUXGT\GMGTKPIURTQFWEVGP OGV GGP IGYCCTDQTIF TGPFGOGPV )G\KGP FG OGGTQRFGKPVGTOGFKCVKG UVGTMG KPVGTPGQHGZVGTPG EQPEWTTGPVKGFTWMOQGVGPFG$GNIKUEJGDCPMGPGP marge van de banken XGT\GMGTKPIUQPFGTPGOKPIGPGZVTCKPURCPPKPIGPNGXGTGPQOJWPDGFTĎHUOQFGN XGTFGT CCP VG RCUUGP &G NCIG TGPVG QR \QYGN MQTVG CNU NCPIG VGTOĎP DNĎHV ETWEKCCN XQQT FG QPFGTUVGWPKPI XCP FG GEQPQOKUEJG DGFTĎXKIJGKF &G NCIG sUQOU\GNHUPGICVKGXGsTGPVGVCTKGXGP\ĎPGEJVGTXGGNGGTPCFGNKIXQQTFGTGPVCDKNKVGKVXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQT &G ƂPCPEKÇNG KPUVGNNKPIGP MWPPGP FGTJCNXG IGPGKIF \ĎP QO FG PGICVKGXG IGXQNIGP XCP FG TGPVGQOIGXKPI VG EQORGPUGTGPFQQTGGPOGGTTKUKEQXQNIGFTCI 6QVKP|\QTIFGFGFTWMQRFGTGPVGOCTIGU OGVPCOGCNUIGXQNIXCPFGCHXNCMMKPIXCPFGTGPVGEWTXG XQQT GGPFCNKPIXCPFGTGPVGKPMQOUVGPXCPFGDCPMGP)GEQPHTQPVGGTFOGVFGFCNKPIXCPFGTGPFGOGPVGPQRJWP CEVKXC YCTGP FG DCPMGP PKGV NCPIGT KP UVCCV JWP ƂPCPEKGTKPIUMQUVGP VG FTWMMGP GP MTQOR JGV PGVVQ TGPVG KPMQOGPXCPFGMTGFKGVKPUVGNNKPIGP+P|DGIQPFKVKPMQOGPGEJVGTQRPKGWYVGUVĎIGP&G\GQPVYKMMGNKPI KU FGGNU VG XGTMNCTGP FQQT KPMQOUVGP WKV FGTKXCVGP QH CEVKXKVGKVGP KP JGV DWKVGPNCPF OCCT YGGTURKGIGNV QQM FG ITQVG DGFTCIGP XCP FG MTGFKGVGP FKG YQTFGP VQGIGMGPF CCP FG $GNIKUEJG PKGVƂPCPEKÇNG RTKXCVG UGEVQT <QFQGPFGJGDDGPFGDCPMGPGGPPGICVKGHoRTĎUGHHGEVoQRIGXCPIGPOGVGGPoXQNWOGGHHGEVn. 18. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

(20) 6QV QR \GMGT JQQIVG IKPI FKV oXQNWOGGHHGEVo IGRCCTF OGV GGP XGTUQGRGNKPI XCP FG FQQT FG DCPMGP VQGIGRCUVG MTGFKGVXGTNGPKPIUXQQTYCCTFGP &KV KU KP JGV DĎ\QPFGT JGV IGXCN XQQT FG J[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGP \KG RCTCITCCH| OCCT QQM OGGT KP JGV CNIGOGGP XQQT CNNG MTGFKGVGP CCP FG PKGVƂPCPEKÇNG RTKXCVG UGEVQT #NU IGXQNI XCP FG CCP\KGPNĎMGEQPEWTTGPVKGFCCNFGPFGEQOOGTEKÇNGOCTIGUQRFG\GMTGFKGVGPDĎXQQTDGGNFXGTFGTVQVPKXGCWUFKGJGV TKUKEQXGTDQPFGPCCPFGVQGIGMGPFGNGPKPIGPPKGVOGGTXQNNGFKIYGGTURKGIGNGP&GCHPCOGXCPFGEQOOGTEKÇNG OCTIGU\QTIVXQQTPKGWYGFTWMQRFGTGPVGKPMQOUVGPYCCTFQQTKPUVGNNKPIGPOGVQPXQNFQGPFGIGFKXGTUKƂGGTFG KPMQOUVGPDTQPPGPJWPRTQFWEVKGXQNWOGJCPFJCXGPQHXGTJQIGP. )TCƂGM 4GPVGVCTKGXGPQRFGXGTUEJKNNGPFGWKVUVCCPFGCEVKXCGPRCUUKXCXCPFG$GNIKUEJGMTGFKGVKPUVGNNKPIGP 1. IGIGXGPUQRPKGVIGEQPUQNKFGGTFGDCUKUKP. 6GTOĎPNGPKPIGP. Zichtdeposito’s. Hypothecaire leningen. Spaardeposito’s. Obligaties en andere effecten. 6GTOĎPFGRQUKVQoU. 2018. 2016. 2014. 2012. 2010. 2008. 2006. 2004. 2002. 2000. 1998. 2018. 2016. 0 2014. 1. 0 2012. 2. 1 2010. 3. 2. 2008. 4. 3. 2006. 5. 4. 2004. 6. 5. 2002. 7. 6. 2000. 8. 7. 1998. 9. 8. 1996. 10. 9. 1994. 10. 1996. Gemiddelde op verschillende soorten deposito’s betaalde rente. 1994. Gemiddelde op verschillende soorten activa ontvangen rente. $TQP0$$ 1 &G\GVCTKGXGPYQTFGPDGTGMGPFCNUFGXGTJQWFKPIVWUUGPFGQXGTVYCCNHOCCPFGPIGEWOWNGGTFGUVTQOGPXCPQPVXCPIGPGPDGVCCNFGTGPVG GPJGVIGOKFFGNFGWKVUVCCPFGXQNWOGXCPFGQXGTGGPUVGOOGPFGCEVKXCQHRCUUKXCVĎFGPUFGDGUEJQWYFGRGTKQFG. &G NCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPI JGGHV QQM GGP PGICVKGXG KPXNQGF QR FG XGT\GMGTKPIUUGEVQT GP XQQTCN QR FG VCM NGXGPUXGT\GMGTKPIGP &G\G NCCVUVG YQTFV KOOGTU IGMGPOGTMV FQQT RCUUKXC FKG GGP NCPIGTG NQQRVĎF JGDDGP FCPFGCEVKXCGPDQXGPFKGPFQQTKPJGVXGTNGFGPCCPIGICPGXGTDKPVGPKUUGP De voor levensverzekeringen YCCTXCPGGPFGGNIGMGPOGTMVKUFQQTJQIGIGYCCTDQTIFGTGPVG. IGTGIKUVTGGTFGRTGOKGU. &G XQQT NGXGPUXGT\GMGTKPIGP IGTGIKUVTGGTFG RTGOKGU PCOGP KP| GEJVGT namen toe en het gemiddeld VQG PC GGP DĎPC EQPUVCPVG FCNKPI UKPFU| &G\G QRNGXKPI KU DĎPC gewaarborgd rendement van WKVUNWKVGPF VQG VG UEJTĎXGP CCP FG UVĎIKPI XCP VCM | NGXGPUXGT\GMGTKPIGP FGVCMQXGTGGPMQOUVGP IGMQRRGNF CCP DGNGIIKPIUHQPFUGP YCCTXCP JGV TGPFGOGPV PKGV IGYCCTDQTIF YQTFV VGTYĎN VCM| | NGXGPUXGT\GMGTKPIGP OGV IGYCCTDQTIF daalde verder TGPFGOGPV GGP \GGT NKEJVG VQGPCOG NKGV QRVGMGPGP FKG XQQTCN VG YĎVGP YCU CCP FG ITQGRUXGT\GMGTKPIUEQPVTCEVGP $QXGPFKGP FCCNFG JGV IGOKFFGNF IGYCCTDQTIF TGPFGOGPV XCP FG VCM| QXGTGGPMQOUVGP XGTFGT KP| CNU IGXQNI XCP OGV PCOG RTQITCOOCoU XQQT FG CHMQQR XCP QXGTGGPMQOUVGPOGVGGPJQIGIGYCCTDQTIFGTGPVG<QFQGPFGJGDDGPFGXGT\GMGTCCTUGTXQQTIG\QTIFFCV\G JWPXGTRNKEJVKPIGPVGIGPQXGTFGXGT\GMGTFGPMQPFGPFGMMGP. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 19.

(21) )TCƂGM 8GTNQQRXCPFGNGXGPUXGT\GMGTKPIUCEVKXKVGKV. IGIGXGPUQRPKGVIGEQPUQNKFGGTFGDCUKUKPaOKNLCTFVGP\ĎCPFGTUXGTOGNF. Levensverzekeringspremies. Gewaarborgd rendement en beleggingsrendement van de levensverzekeraars (tak 21). 30. 30. 25. 25. 20. 20. 15. 15. 10. 10. 5. 5. 0. 0. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2. Solvency I. Tak 23 Andere takken Totaal. 2018. 2016. 2014. 2012. 2010. 2008. 2006. 2004. 2002. 2018. Solvency II. 6CM| KPFKXKFWGNGNGXGPUXGT\GMGTKPI 6CM| ITQGRUXGT\GMGTKPI. 0 2017. 2016. 2014. 2012. 2010. 2008. 2006. 2004. 2002. 1. Tak 21. Gemiddeld gewaarborgd rendement op de bestaande overeenkomsten Beleggingsrendement op de technische XQQT\KGPKPIGP Geraamd beleggingsrendement op de technische XQQT\KGPKPIGP\QPFGTMCRKVCCNYKPUVGPGP waardeverminderingen. $TQP0$$. &G$GNIKUEJGXGT\GMGTKPIU ondernemingen schakelen IGNGKFGNĎMQXGTQRCEVKXCFKG meer winstgevend maar vaak ook risicovoller en / of minder NKSWKFG\ĎP . )G\KGP FG NCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPI GP FG CCP\KGPNĎMG EQPEWTTGPVKG. DĎXQQTDGGNF QR JGV XNCM XCP FG PKGVNGXGPUXGT\GMGTKPIUCEVKXKVGKV UEJCMGNGP FG $GNIKUEJG XGT\GMGTKPIUQPFGTPGOKPIGP GEJVGT IGNGKFGNĎM QXGT QR CEVKXC FKG OGGT YKPUVIGXGPF OCCT XCCM QQM TKUKEQXQNNGT GPQH OKPFGT NKSWKFG \ĎP <Q JKGNFGP FG $GNIKUEJG XGT\GMGTCCTU KP| QRPKGWYOGGTCEVKXCCCPKPFGXQTOXCPJ[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGPQHXCP NGPKPIGPCCPCNFCPPKGVXGTDQPFGPQPFGTPGOKPIGP. Prudentiële maatregelen. 'GPXCPFGMGTPVCMGPXCPFG$CPMCNUOCETQRTWFGPVKGGNVQG\KEJVJQWFGTKUJGVKFGPVKƂEGTGPGPQRXQNIGPXCPE[ENKUEJG U[UVGGOTKUKEQoU 9CPPGGT \Ď GGP DWKVGPURQTKIG QRDQWY XCP FGTIGNĎMG TKUKEQoU MYGVUDCCTJGFGP XCUVUVGNV FKGPV FG $CPMFGPQFKIGEQTTKIGTGPFGOCETQRTWFGPVKÇNGCEVKGUXQQTVGUVGNNGPQOFGXGTFGTGQRDQWYXCPFG\GTKUKEQoUVGIGPVG ICCPGPQHFGOQIGNĎMGKORCEVGTXCPQRFGTGÇNGGEQPQOKGVGDGRGTMGP&GEQPVTCE[ENKUEJGDWHHGT %QWPVGTE[ENKECN ECRKVCNDWHHGT%%[$ KUGGPXCPFGDGNCPITĎMUVGKPUVTWOGPVGPYCCTQXGTFG$CPMDGUEJKMVQOsKPIGXCNXCPQRDQWY XCP E[ENKUEJG TKUKEQoU s VĎFKI GP RTGXGPVKGH VG KPVGTXGPKÇTGP &G\G DWHHGT FKG YQTFV KPIGUVGNF GP CCPIGNGIF VĎFGPU FGRGTKQFGXCPQRDQWYXCPFGTIGNĎMGU[UVGGOTKUKEQoU KPFGQRICCPFGHCUGXCPFGMTGFKGVE[ENWU IGPGTGGTVGZVTC CDUQTRVKGECRCEKVGKVXQQTFGDCPMGP\QFCV\ĎKPIGXCNXCPGGPƂPCPEKÇNGTGEGUUKGFGDĎMQOGPFGXGTNKG\GPMWPPGP QRXCPIGPGPCNFWUFGEQPVKPWËVGKVXCPFGMTGFKGVXGTNGPKPICCPFGTGÇNGGEQPQOKGMWPPGPXGT\GMGTGP &G$CPMXQNIVFGQPVYKMMGNKPIGPXCPFGMTGFKGVGPƂPCPEKÇNGE[ENWUFCPQQMPCWYIG\GVQR&GTIGNĎMGE[ENK MWPPGPKOOGTUQPVURQTGPYCPPGGTs\QCNUJGVIGXCNYCUKPFGCCPNQQRPCCTFGƂPCPEKÇNGETKUKU|sDCPMGP| GPQH. 20. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

(22) UEJCFWYDCPMGP YGIGPUGGPUEJGTRGEQPEWTTGPVKGQHQPXGTCPVYQQTFYKPUVDGLCIYGKPKIQHPKGVRTQFWEVKGXG KPXGUVGTKPIURTQLGEVGP DQXGPOCVKI GP VGIGP CN VG UQGRGNG XQQTYCCTFGP ƂPCPEKGTGP +P JGV DĎ\QPFGT YQTFGP FGQPVYKMMGNKPIGPKPFGMTGFKGVXGTNGPKPIKPEQODKPCVKGOGVFGQPVYKMMGNKPIGPKPFGƂPCPEKÇNGOCTMVGPFG XCUVIQGFOCTMVGPGPFGTGÇNGGEQPQOKGQRIGXQNIFGPYQTFVPCIGICCPQHFG\GMTGFKGVXGTNGPKPIDWKVGPURQTKI KUGPCCPNGKFKPIIGGHVVQVFGQRDQWYXCPU[UVGGOTKUKEQoU +PFG\GEQPVGZVUVGNVFG$CPMXCUVFCVFGMTGFKGVE[ENWUKP$GNIKÇsPGV\QCNUKPXGTUEJKNNGPFGCPFGTGNCPFGP|sXGTFGT CCPVTGMV&GMTGFKGVXGTNGPKPICCPFG$GNIKUEJGPKGVƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQTPGGOVOGFGCNUIGXQNIXCPFGCCPJQWFGPFG NCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPI UPGN VQG GP FG ITQGK GTXCP NKIV FWKFGNĎM DQXGP FKG KP JGV GWTQIGDKGF 'GP FGTIGNĎMGMTGFKGVITQGKURQQTVPKGVPQQF\CMGNĎMOGVFGNCIG RQVGPVKÇNG ITQGKXCPFG$GNIKUEJGGEQPQOKGGPYQTFV VGP FGNG IGFTGXGP FQQT VG NCIG TGPVGU FGGNU CNU IGXQNI XCP FG QPFGTYCCTFGTKPI XCP FG TKUKEQoU GP VG UQGRGNG MTGFKGVXQQTYCCTFGP*GVCCPVTGMMGPXCPFGMTGFKGVE[ENWUYQTFVDGXGUVKIFFQQTFGMTGFKGVDDRICRFKG QRDCUKU XCP FG $GNIKUEJG DCPMYGV GP '54$TKEJVUPQGTGP GGP EGPVTCNG RNCCVU KPPGGOV KP FG CPCN[UG &G OGGUV TGEGPVG EĎHGTU OGV DGVTGMMKPI VQV FG $GNIKUEJG MTGFKGVDDRICR YĎ\GP QR GGP XGTFGTG VQGPCOG XCP FG ICR VQV KPJGVDĎ\QPFGTCNUIGXQNIXCPGGPIGXQGNKIGXGTUPGNNKPIXCPFGITQGKXCPFGMTGFKGVXGTNGPKPICCPPKGVƂPCPEKÇNG QPFGTPGOKPIGP KP $GNIKÇ /GV GGP YCCTFG XCP DDR QXGTUEJTĎFV FG $GNIKUEJG MTGFKGVDDRICR FG FQQT JGV '54$ CCPDGXQNGP FTGORGNYCCTFG XCP &G$CPMDNĎHVFGQPVYKMMGNKPIGP XQQTFGCEVKXGTKPIXCPFG%%[$ in de kredietcyclus nauwgezet. volgen en kan overwegen de. +P JGV NKEJV XCP FG CCPVTGMMGPFG MTGFKGVE[ENWU YQTFV JGV VĎFKI CCPNGIIGP CCyB te activeren indien het XCPGZVTCEQPVTCE[ENKUEJGMCRKVCCNDWHHGTUKPFGDCPMUGEVQTDGNCPITĎMGT<GMGT aantrekken van de kredietcyclus PW FG GEQPQOKUEJG QP\GMGTJGKF GP FG XQNCVKNKVGKV QR FG ƂPCPEKÇNG OCTMVGP wordt bevestigd VQGPGOGP GP IGNGV QR FG XGTFGTG QRDQWY XCP MYGVUDCCTJGFGP KP $GNIKÇ. QCFGVQGPGOGPFGUEJWNFITCCF XGTFKGPVJGVCCPDGXGNKPIFGYGGTDCCTJGKF XCPFGDCPMGPVGICTCPFGTGPGP\QFQGPFGGGPUVCDKGNGMTGFKGVXGTNGPKPICCPFGTGÇNGGEQPQOKGVGXGT\GMGTGP &CCTDĎFKGPVGGPCHYGIKPIIGOCCMVVGYQTFGPVWUUGPGPGT\ĎFUFGPQQF\CCMQOFGTIGNĎMGDWHHGTUVĎFKICCPVG NGIIGPGPCPFGT\ĎFUFGOQIGNĎMGRTQE[ENKUEJGGHHGEVGPFKGFGTIGNĎMGDWHHGTUMWPPGPJGDDGPKPIGXCNXCPGGP XGTFGTGXGTVTCIKPIXCPFGITQGKXCPFGGEQPQOKGQHFGOCVGTKCNKUCVKGXCPDGNCPITĎMGTKUKEQoU&G$CPMDNĎHVFG QPVYKMMGNKPIGPKPFGMTGFKGVE[ENWUPCWYIG\GVXQNIGPGPMCPs\QCNUGGPCCPVCNCPFGTG'7NCPFGPYCCTQPFGT. )TCƂGM -TGFKGVDDRICR. KPDDR 8 6 4 2 0 –2 –4. 0KGVƂPCPEKÇNG QPFGTPGOKPIGP. –6. Huishoudens 2018. 2016. 2014. 2012. 2010. 2008. 2006. 2004. 2002. 2000. 1998. 1996. 1994. 1992. 1990. 1988. 1986. 1984. 1982. 1980. –8. $TQP0$$. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 21.

(23) (TCPMTĎM.WZGODWTIQH+GTNCPFsQXGTYGIGPFG%%[$VGCEVKXGTGPKPFKGPJGVCCPVTGMMGPXCPFGMTGFKGVE[ENWU. GPFGQRDQWYXCPU[UVGGOTKUKEQoU YQTF V GP DGXGUVKIF 9CV FG XGT\GMGTKPIUQPFGTPGOKPIGP DGVTGHV YGTF QR OKETQRTWFGPVKGGN PKXGCW XQQT\KGP KP GGP PCWYIG\GVVG QRXQNIKPIXCPFGJGTQTKÇPVCVKGXCPJWPCEVKXCGPDGNGIIKPIGP#CPIG\KGPGTOQOGPVGGNIGGPFKTGEVKP\GVDCTG OCETQRTWFGPVKÇNGKPUVTWOGPVGPDGUEJKMDCCT\ĎPGPIGNGVQRJGVDGRGTMVGU[UVGOKUEJGGHHGEVXCPFGYCCTIGPQOGP QPVYKMMGNKPIGPYGTFGPGTVQVPQIVQGIGGPOCETQRTWFGPVKÇNGOCCVTGIGNGPIGPQOGP. 3. 1PVYKMMGNKPIGPQRFGXCUVIQGFOCTMVGP . $GUEJTĎXKPIXCPFGTKUKEQoU. 4GUKFGPVKÇNGXCUVIQGFOCTMV &GRTĎ\GPXCPJGVTGUKFGPVKGGNXCUVIQGFKP$GNIKÇ\ĎPKPFGNCCVUVGFGEGPPKCUVGTMVQGIGPQOGP5KPFUJGVDGIKP XCPFGLCTGP||\ĎPFGYQPKPIRTĎ\GPKOOGTUOGGTFCPXGTFWDDGNF+PVGIGPUVGNNKPIVQVKPGPMGNGCPFGTG 'WTQRGUG NCPFGP JGGHV FG GEQPQOKUEJG GP ƂPCPEKÇNG ETKUKU KP $GNIKÇ PKGV IGNGKF VQV GGP GEJVG PGGTYCCTVUG EQTTGEVKG XCP FG RTĎ\GP QR FG XCUVIQGFOCTMV &G VQGPCOG XCP FG YQPKPIRTĎ\GP XGTVTCCIFG YGN GPKIU\KPU KP FG PCUNGGR XCP FG ETKUKU #CP FG\G XGTVTCIKPI MYCO GGP GKPFG KP| JQGYGN XGTYCEJV YGTF FCV FG JGTXQTOKPIGPKP\CMGFGƂUECNGCHVTGMDCCTJGKFXCPFGJ[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGPKPFCVLCCTGGPPGGTYCCTVUGHHGEV QRFGRTĎ\GP\QWFGPJGDDGP+P|GP|UVGIGPFGYQPKPIRTĎ\GPTGURGEVKGXGNĎMOGVGP KPPQOKPCNGVGTOGP+P|UVGIGPFGRTĎ\GPOGVYCVFWUGGPIGNĎMCCTFKIITQGKVGORQKUCNUKP| +P TGÇNG VGTOGP FKV YKN \GIIGP TGMGPKPI JQWFGPF OGV FG FGƃCVQT XCP FG RCTVKEWNKGTG EQPUWORVKG DGFTQGI FGUVĎIKPIKP 8QNIGPU FG TCOKPIGP XCP GGP GEQPQOGVTKUEJ OQFGN YCCTKP TGMGPKPI YQTFV IGJQWFGP OGV GGP CCPVCN XTCCIHCEVQTGP s PCOGNĎM JGV DGUEJKMDCCT KPMQOGP XCP FG JWKUJQWFGPU FG J[RQVJGECKTG TGPVG FG FGOQITCƂUEJG QPVYKMMGNKPIGP GP FG XQQTPCCOUVG YĎ\KIKPIGP KP FG DGNCUVKPIGP QR XCUVIQGF s \QWFGP FGYQPKPIRTĎ\GPKPQPIGXGGTJQIGTJGDDGPIGNGIGPFCPJWP IGTCCOFGGXGPYKEJVUYCCTFG&KVEĎHGTNKIVKPNĎPOGVFCVXCPFGXQQTICCPFG &G$GNIKUEJGTGUKFGPVKÇNG VYGGLCTGPYCVCCPVQQPVFCVJGVXGTNQQRXCPFGXCUVIQGFRTĎ\GPCNOGVCN XCUVIQGFOCTMVDNĎHVF[PCOKUEJ IGNĎM NKGR OGV FCV XCP FG DGNCPITĎMUVG FGVGTOKPCPVGP XCP FG XTCCI PCCT XCUVIQGF'GPIGQDUGTXGGTFRTĎURGKNXQQTXCUVIQGFFCVQXGTGGPUVGOVOGV FG GXGPYKEJVUYCCTFG KORNKEGGTV QXGTKIGPU PKGV FCV GT IGGP TKUKEQ DGUVCCV XQQT FG XCUVIQGFOCTMV /QEJV GGPXCPFGFGVGTOKPCPVGPXCPFGXCUVIQGFRTĎ\GPUVGTMXGTUNGEJVGTGPDĎXQQTDGGNFDĎGGPTGPVGUVĎIKPIQH GGP PGGTYCCTVUG UEJQM QR FG KPMQOGPU XCP FG JWKUJQWFGPU FCP \QWFGP FG XCUVIQGFRTĎ\GP CCP\KGPNĎM kunnen dalen. *GVLCCTNĎMUCCPVCNXCUVIQGFXGTMQRGPQRFGUGEWPFCKTGOCTMVKUFGNCCVUVGLCTGPUVGTMIGUVGIGP0CFGUKIPKƂECPVG VQGPCOGXCPJGVCCPVCNVTCPUCEVKGUQRFGXCUVIQGFOCTMVGKPF|GPFGFCCTQRXQNIGPFGUWDUVCPVKÇNGFCNKPI GTXCPKP|VGPIGXQNIGXCPFGJGTXQTOKPIGPKP\CMGFGƂUECNGCHVTGMDCCTJGKFXCPFGJ[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGP XGGTFGJGVCCPVCNVTCPUCEVKGUUVGTMQRKP|GPPCOJGVFCCTPCXGTFGTVQG+P|NCIFGXCUVIQGFCEVKXKVGKV \QoP JQIGT FCP KP| 1QM QR FG RTKOCKTG OCTMV YCU GT GGP JQIGTG DGFTĎXKIJGKF +P| NCI JGV CCPVCNDQWYXGTIWPPKPIGPDĎPCGGPMYCTVJQIGTFCPKP|&GOGGTFGTJGKFXCPFGDQWYXGTIWPPKPIGPJGGHV DGVTGMMKPIQRCRRCTVGOGPVGP &GVGPFGPUGPXCPFGCHIGNQRGPLCTGPQRFGTGUKFGPVKÇNGXCUVIQGFOCTMV\ĎPVQGVGUEJTĎXGPCCPFKXGTUGHCEVQTGP 1ROCETQGEQPQOKUEJXNCMJGGHVFGCCP\KGPNĎMGFCNKPIXCPFGJ[RQVJGECKTGTGPVGKPEQODKPCVKGOGVFGUVĎIKPI XCP JGV IG\KPUKPMQOGP GP FG CNIGOGGP IWPUVKIG GEQPQOKUEJG QOUVCPFKIJGFGP FG XTCCI PCCT XCUVIQGF QPFGTUVGWPF1QMFGDGXQNMKPIUVQGPCOGGPFGIGNGKFGNĎMGCHPCOGXCPFGIGOKFFGNFGIG\KPUITQQVVGJGDDGP FCCTQPIGVYĎHGNFVQGDĎIGFTCIGP6GIGPFGCEJVGTITQPFXCPGGPYGKPKIGNCUVKUEJCCPDQFVGPUNQVVGYGTFJGV. 22. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

(24) )TCƂGM 9QPKPIRTĎ\GPGPYCCTFGTKPIXCPFGTGUKFGPVKÇNGXCUVIQGFOCTMVKP$GNIKÇ 9QPKPIRTĎ\GP. Waardering van de vastgoedmarkt. CHYĎMKPIKPVQXFGGXGPYKEJVURTĎ\GP. (veranderingspercentages op jaarbasis) 6. 25. 5. 20 15. 4. 10 3 5 2 0 1. –5. 0. –10. –1. 0QOKPCNGRTĎ\GP. 4GÇNGRTĎ\GP. 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019. 2015 2016 2017 2018. 1981 1983 1985. –15 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014. $TQP0$$. XGTYCEJVG XQQTFGGN CNU IGXQNI XCP FG JGTXQTOKPIGP XCP FG QPTQGTGPFIQGFDGNCUVKPI FKG JGV XGTYGTXGP XCP GKIGPFQOYKNFGPDGXQTFGTGPKPJQIGOCVGKPFGRTĎ\GPFQQTDGTGMGPF. %QOOGTEKÇNGXCUVIQGFOCTMV &G DGNGIIKPIUVTGPFU FKG QR FG EQOOGTEKÇNG XCUVIQGFOCTMV YGTFGP YCCTIGPQOGP MCPVQTGP JCPFGNU\CMGP KPFWUVTKÇNGIGDQWYGPTWUVJWK\GPGP\ YQTFGPGXGPGGPUDGËPXNQGFFQQTFGNCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPIFKGGTXQQT\QTIV FCVJGVEQOOGTEKGGNXCUVIQGFGGPCCPVTGMMGNĎMTGPFGOGPVDKGFVKPXGTIGNĎMKPIOGVFG\QIGPCCOFGoVTCFKVKQPGNGo CEVKXC1PFCPMUFGFCNKPIXCPFGTGPFGOGPVGPCNUIGXQNIXCPJGVNCIGTGPVGRGKNGPFGVQGPGOGPFGDGNCPIUVGNNKPI XCPFGDGNGIIGTUXQQTFKVV[RGCEVKXCYQTFVKPFGXGTUNCIGPXCPOCMGNCCT,QPGU.CPI.C5CNNGIGYCIIGOCCMVXCP IGOKFFGNFGTGPFGOGPVGPVWUUGPGPXQQT|CHJCPMGNĎMXCPJGVV[RGCEVKXC &G DGNGIIKPIUXQNWOGU FKG KP| YGTFGP YCCTIGPQOGP DGXGUVKIGP FG CCPVTGMMGNĎMJGKF XCP FKV V[RG CEVKXC +P|DGNKGRFGYCCTFGXCPFGVTCPUCEVKGUPCOGNĎMa|OKNLCTFQPIGXGGTGXGPXGGNCNUKP|&G\GUVĎIKPI KP| KU OGV PCOG VG XGTMNCTGP FQQT FTKG DGNCPITĎMG VTCPUCEVKGU OGV DGVTGMMKPI VQV JCPFGNU\CMGP YKPMGNEQORNGZGP FKG KP FG NQQR XCP FCV LCCT Buitenlandse beleggers RNCCVUXQPFGPGPYCCTDĎVGNMGPUDWKVGPNCPFUGDGNGIIGTUYCTGPDGVTQMMGP. JGDDGPDĎIGFTCIGPCCPFG dynamiek van de Belgische EQOOGTEKÇNGXCUVIQGFOCTMV. $WKVGPNCPFUG DGNGIIGTU PGOGP KP JGV NCPFUEJCR XCP FG EQOOGTEKÇNG XCUVIQGFDGNGIIKPIGP KP $GNIKÇ TGGFU XGTUEJGKFGPGP LCTGP GGP DGNCPITĎMG RNCCVU KP +P| YCTGP FG OGGUVG JKGTXCP KPUVKVWVKQPGNG DGNGIIGTU QH DGFTĎXGP WKV FG XCUVIQGFUGEVQT FKG QR \QGM YCTGP PCCT UVCDKGNG TGPFGOGPVGP QR NCPIG VGTOĎP &G\G YCTGP CHMQOUVKIWKVXGTUEJKNNGPFGNCPFGPYCCTQPFGT0GFGTNCPF XCPFGVQVCNGDGNGIIKPIGPKP$GNIKÇKP| <WKF-QTGC GP FG 8GTGPKIFG 5VCVGP &G CCPYG\KIJGKF XCP DWKVGPNCPFUG DGNGIIGTU OCCMV JGV YGNKUYCCTOQIGNĎMQOJGVTKUKEQKPFGDGVTQMMGPUGEVQTKP\GMGTGOCVGVGURTGKFGPOCCTMCPQQMGGPITQVGTG XQNCVKNKVGKVVGYGGIDTGPIGPQOFCVFG\GCEVQTGPUPGNNGTIGPGKIF\QWFGP\ĎPQOJWPDGNGIIKPIGPWKV$GNIKÇVGTWI VGVTGMMGPOGVPCOGKPIGXCNXCPRTĎUUEJQMMGP. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 23.

(25) )TCƂGM %QOOGTEKÇNGXCUVIQGFDGNGIIKPIGPKP$GNIKÇ Commerciële vastgoedbeleggingen. Soorten beleggers. (in € miljard). (in % van de totale beleggingen). 5. 100 90. 4. 80 70. 3. 60 50. 2. 40 30. 1. 20 10. 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018. 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018. Kantoren. Buitenlands. Handelszaken. Institutioneel. Industrieel vastgoed. GVV’s. Rust- en verzorgingstehuizen. Particulier. Residentieel vastgoed (incl. hotels). Overige. Binnenlands. Projectgrond. $TQPPGP4%#0$$. 1QMFGDKPPGPNCPFUGDGNGIIGTUJGDDGPDĎIGFTCIGPCCPFGF[PCOKGMXCPFGDGNGIIKPIUOCTMV/GVPCOGFG )88oU IGTGINGOGPVGGTFGXCUVIQGFXGPPQQVUEJCRRGP YCTGPIQGFXQQTOGGTFCPa|OKNLQGPCCPVTCPUCEVKGU KP| QPFCPMU JWP VQGPGOGPFG DGFTĎXKIJGKF KP JGV DWKVGPNCPF JQQHF\CMGNĎM KP DWWTNCPFGP 'KPF| YGTF XQQT FG\G XGPPQQVUEJCRRGP GGP XCUVIQGFRQTVGHGWKNNG XCP OGGT FCP a| OKNLCTF QRIGVGMGPF YCCTXCP a|OKNLCTFKP$GNIKÇ1PFCPMUFGUVGTMGITQGKXCPFGNCCVUVGLCTGPDNĎHVFG\GUGEVQTUVGTMIGMCRKVCNKUGGTFOGV GGPIGOKFFGNFGUEJWNFITCCFXCPFKGXGTQPFGTFGQRFG\GXGPPQQVUEJCRRGPVQGRCUUGNĎMGTGINGOGPVCKTG FTGORGNXCPNKIV #PFGTG $GNIKUEJG URGNGTU \QCNU DQWYDGFTĎXGP RTQLGEVQPVYKMMGNCCTU GP XCUVIQGFOCMGNCCTU JGDDGP FG CHIGNQRGP LCTGP UVGTM DĎIGFTCIGP CCP FG F[PCOKGM XCP FG XCUVIQGFUGEVQT KP $GNIKÇ *QGYGN \Ď PKGV CNVĎF TGEJVUVTGGMU DGVTQMMGP \ĎP DĎ FG VTCPUCEVKGU YQTFGP \Ď YGN QRIGPQOGP KP FG FQQT FG $CPM IGFGƂPKGGTFG UEQRG XCP EQOOGTEKGGN XCUVIQGF CCPIG\KGP \Ď XCUVIQGFCEVKXKVGKVGP XGTTKEJVGP OGV CNU FQGN KPMQOUVGP VG IGPGTGTGP&GXQQTPQGOFGQPFGTPGOKPIGPFTCIGPKPDGNCPITĎMGOCVGDĎVQVFGWKVDTGKFKPIXCPJGVCCPVCN TGUKFGPVKÇNG GP PKGVTGUKFGPVKÇNG IGDQWYGP QR FG $GNIKUEJG OCTMV UQOU FQQT VG URGEWNGTGP FY\ FQQT ƂPCPEKGTKPIOGVGKIGPXGTOQIGP 6WUUGP||GP| NCCVUVGLCCTYCCTXQQTXQNNGFKIGIGIGXGPUDGUEJKMDCCT \ĎP \ĎPFGVQVCNGCEVKXCXCPFG\GQPFGTPGOKPIGPOGVOGGTFCPVQGIGPQOGP&G\GUVĎIKPIMCPGEJVGT YQTFGP IGPWCPEGGTF FQQT TGMGPKPI VG JQWFGP OGV FG XGTDGVGTKPI XCP FG UEJWNFITCCF XCP FG UGEVQT GGP QPVYKMMGNKPI FKG KP UEJTKN EQPVTCUV UVCCV OGV YCV KP UQOOKIG '7NCPFGP YGTF YCCTIGPQOGP XNCM XQQT JGV WKVGGPURCVVGPXCPGGPXCUVIQGF\GGRDGN 1PFCPMUFGF[PCOKGMQRFGDQWYGPDGNGIIKPIUOCTMVGPJGDDGPFGRTĎ\GPXCPJGVEQOOGTEKGGNXCUVIQGFKP $GNIKÇ\KEJFGNCCVUVGLCTGPIGOCVKIFQPVYKMMGNF8QNIGPUFGFQQTFG'%$DGTGMGPFGKPFGZ\QWFGPFG\GRTĎ\GP XQQTCNNGV[RGUXCUVIQGFUCOGPPQIUVGGFUGGPPKXGCWDGTGKMGPFCVNCIGTNKIVFCPKP|KPVGIGPUVGNNKPIVQV FGIGOKFFGNFGRTĎ\GPKPFG'WTQRGUG7PKGFKGJQIGTNKIIGPFCPKP|. 24. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

(26) )TCƂGM 2TĎUXGTNQQRXCPJGVEQOOGTEKGGNXCUVIQGF '%$RTĎUKPFGZXQQTEQOOGTEKGGNXCUVIQGF. 2TĎUKPFGZXQQTUWDUGIOGPVGPXCP EQOOGTEKGGNXCUVIQGF. (2011 = 100). (index op basis van de rendementen van de GVV’s 1, 2009 = 100) 140. 160. 120. 140 120. 100. 100 80 80 60 60 40. 40. 2018. 2017. 2016. 2015. 2014. 2013. 2012. 2011. 2010. 2009. 2008. 2007. 0 2006. 0 2005. 20. 2004. 20. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018. België. Kantoren. Europese Unie. Handelszaken. $TQPPGP'%$0$$ 1 &GRTĎUKPFGZFKGIGDCUGGTFKUQRFGTGPFGOGPVGPXCPFG)88oUYQTFVDGTGMGPFXQNIGPUFGOGVJQFGFKGFQQT'WTQUVCVYQTFVDGUEJTGXGP KPJGVFQEWOGPVo%QOOGTEKCNRTQRGTV[RTKEGKPFKECVQTUUQWTEGUOGVJQFUCPFKUUWGUo . *GV CNIGOGGP RTĎUXGTNQQR XQQT $GNIKÇ XGTUEJKNV GEJVGT CCP\KGPNĎM PCCTIGNCPI XCP JGV DGUEJQWYFG V[RG XCP XCUVIQGF6GTYĎNFGMCPVQQTRTĎ\GPFGNCCVUVGLCTGPQXGTJGVCNIGOGGP\ĎPIGFCCNFCNUIGXQNIXCPFGƂPCPEKÇNG ETKUKU\ĎPFGRTĎ\GPXQQTJCPFGNU\CMGPVQV|UVGTMIGUVGIGPGPFCCTPCNKEJVIGFCCNFXQQTCNCNUIGXQNIXCPFG VGTTQTKUVKUEJGCCPUNCIGPKP$TWUUGNGPXCPFGFQQTDTCCMXCPGEQOOGTEG9CVDGVTGHVFGXQQTWKV\KEJVGPXQQTFG\G VYGG UGIOGPVGP FKG JGV ITQQVUVG FGGN XCP JGV EQOOGTEKGGN XCUVIQGF KP $GNIKÇ XGTVGIGPYQQTFKIGP JQWFGP FGRTQHGUUKQPGNGCEVQTGPGTGGPYGKPKIQRVKOKUVKUEJGOGPKPIQRPCPCGGPNCPIGRGTKQFGXCPFCNKPIGP\QWFG NGGIUVCPF TWKOVG FKG PKGV YQTFV IGDTWKMV KPFGTFCCF MWPPGP VQGPGOGP KP| GPGT\ĎFU XQQT MCPVQTGP FQQT FG PKGWYG IGDQWYGP FKG QR FG OCTMV YQTFGP IGDTCEJV GP CPFGT\ĎFU XQQT JCPFGNU\CMGP FQQTFCV GT QPFGTFTWMXCPFGGEQOOGTEGPCCTMNGKPGTGTWKOVGPYQTFVIG\QEJV. . +ORCEVQRFGƂPCPEKÇNGUGEVQT. Banksector &G $GNIKUEJG DCPMUGEVQT KU KP DGNCPITĎMG OCVG DNQQVIGUVGNF CCP FG $GNIKUEJG TGUKFGPVKÇNG GP EQOOGTEKÇNG XCUVIQGFOCTMV$ĎIGXQNIKUFG\GUGEVQT\GGTIGXQGNKIXQQTOQIGNĎMGUEJQMMGPQRFKGOCTMV\QCNUGGPRNQVUG FCNKPI XCP FG YQPKPIRTĎ\GP OCCT QQM XQQT OGGT CNIGOGPG XGTCPFGTKPIGP KP FG $GNIKUEJG GEQPQOKUEJG QOUVCPFKIJGFGP\QCNUGGPVQGPCOGXCPFGYGTMNQQUJGKFFKGFGVGTWIDGVCNKPIUECRCEKVGKVXCPFGMTGFKGVPGOGTU DGËPXNQGFV <WNMG IGDGWTVGPKUUGP \QWFGP FWU XGTTGICCPFG IGXQNIGP MWPPGP JGDDGP XQQT FG $GNIKUEJG DCPMUGEVQTGPXQQTFGƂPCPEKÇNGUVCDKNKVGKVKPJGVCNIGOGGP &QQTFCV GGP ITQQV FGGN XCP FG XCUVIQGFCEVKXKVGKV IGƂPCPEKGTF YQTFV OGV J[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGP UVGGI JGV WKVUVCCPFG DGFTCI CCP J[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGP CCP IG\KPPGP QR FG DCNCPU XCP FG $GNIKUEJG DCPMGP HQTU VĎFGPU FG NCCVUVG FGEGPPKC 1QM VĎFGPU FG GEQPQOKUEJG GP ƂPCPEKÇNG ETKUKU DNGGH JGV WKVUVCCPFG DGFTCI CCP. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 25.

(27) $GNIKUEJG J[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGP ITQGKGP JQGYGN JGV VGORQ XCP FG ITQGK XGTVTCCIFG *GV LCCTNĎMU ITQGKVGORQ FCCNFGXCPOGGTFCPKPFGLCTGPXQQTFGETKUKUVQVOKPFGTFCPKP|'KPF|DGIQPFGITQGK GEJVGT QRPKGWY VG XGTUPGNNGP FQQTFCV FG XGTFGTG FCNKPI XCP FG TGPVGVCTKGXGP VG\COGP OGV FG IWPUVKIG GEQPQOKUEJGQOUVCPFKIJGFGPFG$GNIKUEJGIG\KPPGPCCPOQGFKIFGPQO OGGT VGNGPGP5KPFUFKGPDGFTCCIV FG PGVVQVQGPCOG FY\ TGMGPKPI JQWFGPF OGV FG CƃQUUKPIGP XCP FG FQQT $GNIKUEJG DCPMGP CCP $GNIKUEJG IG\KPPGPXGTUVTGMVGJ[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGP\QoP|¼QRLCCTDCUKU1PIGTGMGPFFGIGJGTƂPCPEKGTFGMTGFKGVGP YCCTDĎ JGV QO GGP JGT\KGPKPI XCP DGUVCCPFG MTGFKGVQXGTGGPMQOUVGP ICCV GP FKG FWU PKGV CNU GEJVG PKGWYG RTQFWEVKGMWPPGPYQTFGPDGUEJQWYFGP\QPFGTCƃQUUKPIGPXCPDGUVCCPFG 'KPF|DGFTQGIJGVWKVUVCCPFG MTGFKGVGP CH VG VTGMMGP DGFTQGI FG RTQFWEVKG XCP PKGWYG J[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGPa|OKNLCTFKP|. DGFTCICCPJ[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGP OGGTFCPa|OKNLCTF. 'KPF| DGFTQGI JGV WKVUVCCPFG DGFTCI CCP J[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGP OGGT FCP a| OKNLCTF \QYCV JGV XKGTXQWF XCP JGV DGFTCI DGIKP| &KV YCU VQG VG UEJTĎXGP CCP \QYGN FG UVĎIKPI XCP JGV CCPVCN WKVUVCCPFG QXGTGGPMQOUVGP CNU CCP FG XQQTVFWTGPFG VQGPCOG XCP FG IGOKFFGNFG QPVNGGPFG DGFTCIGP FKG IGEQTTGNGGTF KU OGV FG VQGPCOG XCP FG YQPKPIRTĎ\GP 6WUUGP| | GP| UVGGI JGV IGOKFFGNFG QPVNGGPFG DGFTCI XQQT FG CCPMQQR XCP GGP YQPKPI XCP OKPFGT FCPa|VQVDĎPCa &GITQVGF[PCOKGMQRFGTGUKFGPVKÇNGXCUVIQGFOCTMVIKPIQQMIGRCCTFOGVUVKOWNCPUGPXQQTDQWYDGFTĎXGP RTQLGEVQPVYKMMGNCCTU GP XCUVIQGFOCMGNCCTU XQQT JGV DQWYGP TGPQXGTGP GP CCP GP XGTMQRGP XCP XCUVIQGF #CPIG\KGP FG\G DGFTĎXGP \KEJ FGGNU ƂPCPEKGTGP OGV DCPMMTGFKGV PCO JGV WKVUVCCPFG DGFTCI CCP NGPKPIGP VQGIGMGPFFQQT$GNIKUEJGDCPMGPCCP\WNMGDGFTĎXGPQQMUVGTMVQGKPFGXQQTDĎGLCTGP6WUUGPGKPF||GP GKPF| UVGIGP FG NGPKPIGP CCP $GNIKUEJG DGFTĎXGP FKG CEVKGH \ĎP KP FG DQWY GP XCUVIQGFUGEVQT XCP a|OKNLCTFVQVa|OKNLCTF&GUWDUGEVQTXCPFGDQWYDGFTĎXGPRTQLGEVQPVYKMMGNCCTUGPXCUVIQGFOCMGNCCTU. )TCƂGM $NQQVUVGNNKPIXCPFG$GNIKUEJGDCPMUGEVQTCCPFG$GNIKUEJGXCUVIQGFOCTMV. PKGVIGEQPUQNKFGGTFGIGIGXGPUKPaOKNLCTFVGP\ĎCPFGTUXGTOGNF. .GPKPIGPCCP$GNIKUEJGDGFTĎXGP 1. Hypotheekleningen aan Belgische gezinnen 250. 18 16. 200. 250. 60 50. 200. 14 12. 150. 40 150. 10 8. 100. 6. 30 100 20. 4. 0. ,CCTNĎMUGITQGKXQGV KPTGEJVGTUEJCCN. 2018. 2017. 2016. 2015. 2014. 2013. 2012. 2011. 2010. 2009. 2008. 2007. 0. 2018. 2016 2017. 2015. 2014. 2013. 2012. 2011. 2010. 2009. 2008. 2007. 2006. 2005. 2004. 2003. 2002. 2001. 2000. 0. 2006. 0. 50. 10. 2005. 2. 2004. 50. #NNG$GNIKUEJGDGFTĎXGP $GNIKUEJGDGFTĎXGPKPFGDQWY GPXCUVIQGFUGEVQT $GNIKUEJGDGFTĎXGPKPFGUGEVQTXCPFGITQQV en detailhandel $GNIKUEJGDGFTĎXGPKPFGKPFWUVTKGUGEVQT. $TQP0$$ 1 6QGIGUVCPGDGFTCIGP FY\OCZKOCCNVQGIGUVCPGMTGFKGVUCNFQQHNKOKGV . 26. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

(28) YCUIQGFXQQTGGPUVĎIKPIXCPa|OKNLCTFVQVa|OKNLCTFKPFG\GNHFGRGTKQFG$GNIKUEJGDCPMGP\ĎPQQMQR CPFGTGKPFKTGEVGOCPKGTGPDNQQVIGUVGNFCCPFGEQOOGTEKÇNGXCUVIQGFOCTMV<QJGDDGP\GQQMNGPKPIGPWKVUVCCP CCPDGFTĎXGPFKGCEVKGH\ĎPKPCPFGTGUGEVQTGPYCCTXQQTEQOOGTEKÇNGIGDQWYGP \QCNUMCPVQTGPYKPMGNUGF KPQPFGTRCPFYGTFGPIGPQOGP &GQOXCPIXCPFGDNQQVUVGNNKPIGPXCPFG$GNIKUEJGDCPMGPCCPFG$GNIKUEJGXCUVIQGFUGEVQTKUDĎIGXQNIUVGTM VQGIGPQOGPKPFGXQQTDĎGLCTGP6WUUGPGKPF||GPGKPF|PCOJGVDGNCPIXCPFG$GNIKUEJGJ[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGP KP FG VQVCNG CEVKXC XCP FG DCPMUGEVQT VQG XCP VQV 6GIGNĎMGTVĎF PCO JGV DGNCPI XCP FG NGPKPIGPCCPDGFTĎXGPFKGCEVKGH\ĎPKPFGDQWYGPXCUVIQGFUGEVQTVQGXCPVQV &G F[PCOKUEJG MTGFKGVITQGK IKPI FG CHIGNQRGP LCTGP QQM IGRCCTF OGV GGP VQGPGOGPFG EQPEWTTGPVKG VWUUGP FG $GNIKUEJG DCPMGP GP OGV GGP XGTUQGRGNKPI XCP FG MTGFKGVUVCPFCCTFGP QR FG J[RQVJGECKTG OCTMV 7KV FG IGIGXGPU XCP FG FQQT FG $CPM DĎ FG MTGFKGVKPUVGNNKPIGP IGJQWFGP GPSWÆVG QXGT J[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGP DNĎMV FCV$GNIKUEJGDCPMGPVQV||GGPTGNCVKGHITQQVCCPFGGNPKGWYGMTGFKGVGPVQGMGPFGPOGVGGPNCPIGNQQRVĎF. OGGTFCP|LCCT GPOGVGGPJQIGSWQVKVGKV OGGTFCP VWUUGPJGVQPVNGGPFGDGFTCIGPFGYCCTFGXCP FGKPQPFGTRCPFIGIGXGPYQPKPI FGNQCPVQXCNWGTCVKQQH.68 +PFGRGTKQFGXCP||VQV|YCPPGGTFG $CPMQQMXQQTJGVGGTUVJCCTDG\QTIFJGFGPWKVVGOGVDGVTGMMKPIVQVFG$GNIKUEJGTGUKFGPVKÇNGXCUVIQGFOCTMVGP GGPGGTUVGOCETQRTWFGPVKÇNGOCCVTGIGNKPXQGTFGQOJGVMCRKVCCNVGXGTJQIGPFCVDCPMGPJKGTXQQTQR\Ď\GVVGP FCCNFGJWPCCPFGGNKPFGVQVCNGPKGWYGRTQFWEVKGXCPNGPKPIGPUKIPKƂECPVXCPVQVXQQTNGPKPIGPOGV GGPNQQRVĎFNCPIGTFCP|LCCTGPXCPVQVXQQTNGPKPIGPOGVGGP.68XCPOGGTFCP 5KPFU| JGV LCCT YCCTKP FG MTGFKGVITQGK QRPKGWY DGIQP VG XGTUPGNNGP YQTFV GEJVGT QRPKGWY GGP XGTUQGRGNKPI XCP FG MTGFKGVUVCPFCCTFGP YCCTIGPQOGP 6WUUGP| GP| UVGGI JGV CCPFGGN MTGFKGVGP. )TCƂGM 1PVYKMMGNKPIGPKPFGMTGFKGVUVCPFCCTFGPXQQTPKGWYGJ[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGPCCP$GNIKUEJG IG\KPPGP KPXCPFGVQVCNGXGTUVTGMVGNGPKPIGPKPGGPDGRCCNFWKVIKHVGLCCT. .QQRVĎF. Debt-service-to-income ratio. 50. 40. 40. 40. 30. 30. 30. 20. 20. 20. 10. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. Ű %. ŰLCCT. Ű %. ]80 % ?. ?LCCT LCCT?. ]30 % %]. ]90 % %]. ?LCCT LCCT?. ]100 % %]. ?LCCT LCCT?. %. 2018. 2017. 2016. 2015. 2014. 2013. 2012. 2011. 2010. 2018. 2017. 2016. 2015. 2014. 2013. 2012. 2011. 2010. 80. 2009. 2018. 50. 2017. 60. 50. 2016. 60. 2015. 70. 60. 2014. 70. 2013. 70. 2012. 90. 80. 2011. 100. 90 80. 2010. 100. 90. 2009. 100. 2009. Loan-to-value ratio. %. ?LCCT LCCT? LCCT. $TQP0$$. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 27.

(29) YCCTXQQT JGV QPVNGGPFG DGFTCI OGGT FCP XCP FG KP QPFGTRCPF IGIGXGP YQPKPI DGFTCCIV XCP VQVXCPFGPKGWYGRTQFWEVKG&GUVĎIKPIDGVTQHXQQTCNFGMTGFKGVGPOGVGGP.68VWUUGPGP VGTYĎNFGMTGFKGVGPOGVGGPTCVKQJQIGTFCPDGRGTMVDNGXGP1QMXQQT 'GPXGTUQGRGNKPIXCPFG FG NQQRVĎFGP YQTFV QRPKGWY GGP XGTUQGRGNKPI YCCTIGPQOGP JGV CCPFGGN kredietstandaarden voor XCP FG NGPKPIGP OGV GGP NQQRVĎF XCP OGGT FCP | LCCT PCO VQG XCP J[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGPYQTFV KP|VQVKP|6GIGNĎMGTVĎFYQTFVGGPITQQVFGGNXCPFGPKGWYG MTGFKGVGPPQIUVGGFUIGMGPOGTMVFQQTGGPJQIGOCCPFGNĎMUGUEJWNFGPNCUVKP QRPKGWYYCCTIGPQOGP XGTJQWFKPIVQVJGVOCCPFGNĎMUDGUEJKMDCCTKPMQOGPXCPFGMTGFKGVPGOGT FG FGDVUGTXKEGVQKPEQOGTCVKQQH&56+ 6WUUGP|GP|NCIFG&56+XQQT OGGTFCPXCPFGPKGWYGMTGFKGVGPJQIGTFCPYCVDGVGMGPVFCVFGMTGFKGVPGOGTOGGTFCPFGJGNHV XCP\ĎPOCCPFGNĎMUDGUEJKMDCCTKPMQOGPDGUVGGFVCCPFGCHDGVCNKPIXCP\ĎPNGPKPIGP &GFTWMXCPYGIGFGNCIGTGPVGQOIGXKPIGPFGVQGPCOGXCPFGEQPEWTTGPVKGQRFG$GNIKUEJGJ[RQVJGGMOCTMV WKVVG \KEJ QQM KP GGP FCNKPI XCP FG YKPUVOCTIGU QH EQOOGTEKÇNG OCTIGU XQQT PKGWYG J[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGP &GIGOKFFGNFGCCPENKÇPVGPCCPIGDQFGPTGPVG ENKÇPVGPTGPVG XQQTGGPPKGWYJ[RQVJGECKTMTGFKGVFCCNFGXCP GKPF| VQV GKPF| &QQT JGV XGTNQQR XCP FG ENKÇPVGPTGPVG VG XGTIGNĎMGP OGV FKG XCP FG UYCRTGPVGDGKFGIGYQIGPQXGTFGXGTUEJKNNGPFGNQQRVĎFGPMCPJGVXGTNQQRXCPFGDTWVQEQOOGTEKÇNGOCTIG DGRCCNF YQTFGP *QGYGN FG\G DTWVQOCTIG PC FG GEQPQOKUEJG ƂPCPEKÇNG ETKUKU UVGTM YCU VQGIGPQOGP PCFCV \G KP FG CCPNQQR PCCT FG ETKUKU VQV GGP \GGT NCCI PKXGCW YCU IGFCCNF KU \G QXGT FG CHIGNQRGP LCTGP QRPKGWY. )TCƂGM $TWVQEQOOGTEKÇNGOCTIGQRPKGWYGJ[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGPGPXGTFGNKPIXCPFGWKVUVCCPFG J[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGPXQNIGPUPKXGCWGPV[RGXCPFGTGPVG. KPaOKNLCTFVGP\ĎCPFGTUXGTOGNF. Verdeling van uitstaande hypotheekleningen volgens niveau en type van de intrestenvoet. Verschil tussen klantenrente en swaprente 1 120. 6. 100. 5. 80. 4. 60. 3. 40. 2. 20. 1. 0. 0. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10. –1 2019. 2018. 2017. 2016. 2015. 2014. 2013. 2012. 2011. 2010. 2009. 2008. 2007. 2006. 2005. 2004. –20. 0 DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC DEC 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 14 18 Ű. ,CCTNĎMUGRTQFWEVKGXCPJ[RQVJGGMNGPKPIGP. NKPMGTUEJCCN 8GTUEJKNVWUUGPMNCPVGPTGPVGGPUYCRTGPVG 5YCRTGPVG -NCPVGPTGPVG . ?? ??. ??. ??. ?? ??. Vast. 8CTKCDGN# , . 8CTKCDGN% , . 8CTKCDGNCPFGTG. 8CTKCDGN' , . Niet beschikbaar. $TQP0$$ 1 8QNWOGIGYQIGPQXGTFGXGTUEJKNNGPFGNQQRVĎFGP. 28. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. .

(30) UVGNUGNOCVKIIGFCCNFVQVGGPPKXGCWXCP\QoP|DCUKURWPVGP0CCHVTGMXCPCNNGCPFGTGMQUVGP\QCNUFGMQUVGP XGTDQPFGPCCPJGVMTGFKGVTKUKEQGPJGVNKSWKFKVGKVUTKUKEQGPFKGXGTDQPFGPCCPJGVCCPIGJQWFGPMCRKVCCNDNĎHVGT XQQTXGGNDCPMGPUNGEJVUGGP\GGTMNGKPGPGVVQEQOOGTEKÇNGOCTIGQXGT$QXGPFKGPYQTFVGTYGKPKIFKHHGTGPVKCVKG YCCTIGPQOGPKPFGRTĎU\GVVKPIXCPMTGFKGVGPOGVGGPXGTUEJKNNGPFTKUKEQRTQƂGN*KGTFQQTDGUVCCVGTDG\QTIFJGKF QXGTFGEQTTGEVGRTĎU\GVVKPIXCPDCPMGPDĎJGVVQGMGPPGPXCPPKGWYGJ[RQVJGECKTGMTGFKGVGP &G$GNIKUEJGDCPMGPVTCEJVGPJGVPGICVKGXGGHHGEVXCPFG\GNCIGOCTIGUQRJWPTGPVGKPMQOGPKP\GMGTGOCVG VGEQORGPUGTGPFQQTJQIGTGXQNWOGUYCVFGEQPEWTTGPVKGXGTFGTQRFTĎHV$QXGPFKGPDQWYGPFGDCPMGPQRFKG OCPKGTGGPITQVGRQTVGHGWKNNGQRXCPCEVKXCOGVGGP\GGTNCIGTGPVGFKGXCCMXCUVNKIVXQQTFGXQNNGFKIGNQQRVĎF XCPJGVMTGFKGV#NUIGXQNIXCPFGFCNGPFGTGPVGQRPKGWYGMTGFKGVGPGPFG JQIGOCVGXCPJGTƂPCPEKGTKPIXCPNQRGPFGMTGFKGVGPVGIGPGGPNCIGTGTGPVG De Belgische banken KP FG CHIGNQRGP LCTGP FCCNFG FG IGOKFFGNFG TGPVG QR JGV VQVCNG WKVUVCCPFG EQORGPUGTGPJGVPGICVKGXG DGFTCIXCPJ[RQVJGECKTGNGPKPIGPVQV\QoPGKPF|. effect van de lage marges QRJWPTGPVGKPMQOGPFQQT hogere volumes. #CPIG\KGP XCUVIQGFNGPKPIGP JGV ITQQVUVG IGFGGNVG XCP FG UEJWNFGP XCP FG JWKUJQWFGPU WKVOCMGP XGTVCCNFG FG HQTUG ITQGK XCP FG RQTVGHGWKNNG J[RQVJGECKTGMTGFKGVGPXCPFGDCPMUGEVQT\KEJQQMKPGGPIGNGKFGNĎMGVQGPCOG XCPFGUEJWNFITCCFXCPFG$GNIKUEJGJWKUJQWFGPU6WUUGPGKPF||GPGKPF|UVGGIFGUEJWNFITCCFXCPFG $GNIKUEJGJWKUJQWFGPUXCPVQVDDRVGTYĎNKPJGVGWTQIGDKGFCNUIGJGGNGGPFCNKPIYGTFQRIGVGMGPF XCPVQVDDR&GUQPFCPMUDNĎHVFGYCPDGVCNKPIUITCCFXCPFGJ[RQVJGECKTGMTGFKGVGPXQQTNQRKINCCI GPPGGOVFG\G\GNHUXGTFGTCHVGIGPFGCEJVGTITQPFXCPFGIWPUVKIGGEQPQOKUEJGQOUVCPFKIJGFGP'KPF| DGFTQGIJGVCCPFGGNXCPFGYCPDGVCNKPIGPKPJGVCCPVCNQXGTGGPMQOUVGPXQQTJ[RQVJGECKTGMTGFKGVGPUNGEJVU VGIGPQXGTGGPLCCTGGTFGTYCVJKUVQTKUEJNCCIKU. )TCƂGM 5EJWNFITCCFXCPFGIG\KPPGPGPRGTEGPVCIGCEJVGTUVCNNKIG$GNIKUEJGJ[RQVJGECKTGMTGFKGVGP Schuldgraad van de gezinnen. Achterstallige, niet-geregulariseerde hypothecaire kredieten. (in % bbp). (% van totale uitstaande hypothecaire kredieten) 1,6. 70. 1,4. 60. 1,2. 50. 1 40 0,8 30 0,6 20. 2019. 2018. 2017. 2016. 2015. 2014. 2013. 2012. 2011. 2010. 2009. 2009. 2008. 2007. 2018. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017. 2010 2011 2012. 2009. 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008. 0 2002. 0,2. 2000 2001. 10. 2006. 0,4. België Waarvan hypotheekleningen Eurozone. $TQPPGP'%0$$. /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI. 29.

(31) *GV KU GEJVGT PKGV WKVIGUNQVGP FCV JGV YCPDGVCNKPIURGTEGPVCIG KP FG VQGMQOUV UVĎIV &QQT FG QOXCPI XCP FG DNQQVUVGNNKPIGP QR FG $GNIKUEJG XCUVIQGFOCTMV FG TGEGPVG QPVYKMMGNKPIGP KP\CMG MTGFKGVUVCPFCCTFGP XQQT PKGWYG J[RQVJGECKTG MTGFKGVGP GP FG XQQTVFWTGPFG VQGPCOG XCP FG UEJWNFITCCF XCP FG $GNIKUEJG IG\KPPGP KU FG RQVGPVKÇNG KORCEV XCP GGP UEJQM QR FG XCUVIQGFOCTMV QH KP FG GEQPQOKUEJG QOUVCPFKIJGFGP KP JGV CNIGOGGPCCP\KGPNĎMXQQTFG$GNIKUEJGDCPMUGEVQTGPXQQTFGƂPCPEKÇNGUVCDKNKVGKVKPJGVCNIGOGGP /QEJVGP FG XCUVIQGFRTĎ\GP RNQVU FCNGP DĎXQQTDGGNF FQQT GGP CDTWRVG TGPVGUEJQM FCP \QWFGP FG DCPMGP ITQVGTFCPXGTYCEJVGXGTNKG\GPMWPPGPNĎFGPDĎMTGFKGVPGOGTUFKGJWPNGPKPIPKGVOGGTMWPPGPVGTWIDGVCNGP CCPIG\KGP FG YCCTFG XCP JGV XGTMTGIGP QPFGTRCPF OQIGNĎM IGFCCNF KU VQV QPFGT FG TGUVYCCTFG XCP JGV WKVUVCCPFGMTGFKGV+PFG\GEQPVGZVMCPXGTOGNFYQTFGPFCVXQQTOGGTFCPXCPCNNGWKVUVCCPFG$GNIKUEJG J[RQVJGECKTG NGPKPIGP JGV PQI CH VG NQUUGP MTGFKGVDGFTCI OGGT FCP DGFTCCIV XCP FG JWKFKIG YCCTFG XCP JGV QPFGTRCPF 1QM YCPPGGT FG GEQPQOKUEJG UKVWCVKG \QW XGTUNGEJVGTGP OGV DĎXQQTDGGNF GGP JQIGTG YGTMNQQUJGKF VQV IGXQNI \QWFGP FG DCPMGP OGV JQIGTG MTGFKGVXGTNKG\GP IGEQPHTQPVGGTF MWPPGP YQTFGP QOFCV FG MCPU VQGPGGOV FCV MTGFKGVPGOGTU JWP NGPKPI PKGV OGGT MWPPGP VGTWIDGVCNGP &CCTPCCUV NGKFV GGP RNQVUG FCNKPI XCP FG JWK\GPRTĎ\GP QH GGP XGTUNGEJVGTKPI XCP FG GEQPQOKUEJG QOUVCPFKIJGFGP QQM VQV GGP XGTJQQIFTKUKEQQRYCPDGVCNKPIGPDĎDGFTĎXGPKPFGDQWYGPXCUVIQGFUGEVQTFQQTFGVQGPCOGXCPJGVTKUKEQ FCVIGTGPQXGGTFGQHPKGWYIGDQWYFGRCPFGPPKGVOGGTXGTMQEJVIGTCMGPQHGPMGNXGTMQEJVTCMGPCCPGGPXGGN NCIGTGRTĎUFCPXGTYCEJV *QGYGN FG RQVGPVKÇNG KORCEV XCP GGP PGICVKGXG TGPVGUEJQM QR FG VGTWIDGVCNKPIUECRCEKVGKV XCP FG RTKXCVG UGEVQT DGRGTMV KU QOYKNNG XCP JGV ITQVG CCPFGGN XCP MTGFKGVGP FCV OGV GGP XCUVG TGPVG QH OGV GGP DGRGTMVG TGPVGXCTKCDKNKVGKV YQTFV VQGIGMGPF MCP \QoP UEJQM GGP ITQVG KORCEV JGDDGP QR FG DCPMUGEVQT 'GP RNQVUG TGPVGUVĎIKPI \QW KOOGTU \QTIGP XQQT GGP VQGPCOG XCP FG ƂPCPEKGTKPIUMQUVGP VGTYĎN JGV TGPFGOGPV QR FG CEVKXC \KEJ UNGEJVU IGNGKFGNĎM \QW CCPRCUUGP IG\KGP JGV ITQVG DGNCPI XCP NCCITGPVGPFG CEVKXC OGV GGP NCPIG NQQRVĎFKPFGDCPMDCNCPUGP*KGTFQQTFTGKIVFGVQGMQOUVKIGTGPVCDKNKVGKVXCPFGDCPMUGEVQTVGYQTFGPCCPIGVCUV #CPIG\KGPGGPFCNKPIXCPFGXCUVIQGFRTĎ\GPQQM\QWNGKFGPVQVGGPFCNKPIXCPJGVXGTOQIGPXCPFGIG\KPPGP. FCV XQQT GGP ITQQV FGGN WKV XCUVIQGF DGUVCCV GP XCP FG DGFTĎXGP \QW FKV QQM GGP KORCEV MWPPGP JGDDGP QR FG TGÇNG GEQPQOKG GP FWU QQM QR FG DCPMUGEVQT XKC JGV EQPUWORVKG KPXGUVGTKPIU GP URCCTIGFTCI GP JGV NGGPXGTOQIGP XCP FG RTKXCVG UGEVQT *GV FKGPV GEJVGT XGTOGNF VG YQTFGP FCV JGV IGUEJCVVG GHHGEV XCP FG YQPKPIRTĎ\GP QR FG GEQPQOKUEJG ITQGK KP $GNIKÇ KP JGV CNIGOGGP TGNCVKGH DGRGTMV YQTFV DGXQPFGP KP XGTIGNĎMKPIOGVGPMGNGCPFGTGNCPFGP1. Verzekeringssector 0GV \QCNU FG DCPMGP KPXGUVGTGP QQM FG $GNIKUEJG XGT\GMGTKPIUQPFGTPGOKPIGP KP CCP\KGPNĎMG OCVG KP FG XCUVIQGFUGEVQT $QXGPFKGP JGDDGP FG $GNIKUEJG XGT\GMGTCCTU FKG QR \QGM \ĎP PCCT GGP CNVGTPCVKGH XQQT JWP MNCUUKGMG DGNGIIKPIGP FKG OKPFGT YKPUVIGXGPF \ĎP IGYQTFGP JWP DNQQVUVGNNKPIGP CCP FG\G UGEVQT IGNGKFGNĎMXGTITQQVJGV\ĎTGEJVUVTGGMUXKCFGCCPMQQRXCPIGDQWYGPJGV\Ď De Belgische verzekeraars QPTGEJVUVTGGMUXKCFGDNQQVUVGNNKPICCPJ[RQVJGECKTGMTGFKGVGPQHFGCCPMQQR XCPƂPCPEKÇNGKPUVTWOGPVGPWKVIGIGXGPFQQTQPFGTPGOKPIGPFKGCEVKGH\ĎPKP hebben hun blootstellingen FGDQWYQHXCUVIQGFUGEVQT. aan de vastgoedsector IGNGKFGNĎMXGTITQQV. 5KPFUOCCTV|\ĎPFG\GDNQQVUVGNNKPIGPOGVOGGTFCPVQGIGPQOGP VQV OGGT FCP a| OKNLCTF KP FGEGODGT| 1QM JKGT YQTFV FG CCPVTGMMKPIUMTCEJVXCPXCUVIQGFXQQTFGXGT\GMGTKPIUQPFGTPGOKPIGPXGTMNCCTFFQQTJGVNCIGTGPVGRGKNOCCT QQMFQQTJGVHGKVFCVXCUVIQGFCNVJCPUKPRTKPEKRGGGPDGNGIIKPIQRNCPIGVGTOĎPKUFKGFGXGT\GMGTCCTUFG OQIGNĎMJGKF DKGFV QO DGRCCNFG XGTRNKEJVKPIGP QR \GGT NCPIG VGTOĎP VG FGMMGP 8QNIGPU FG TCOKPIGP XCP. %9CTKUUGGP24GWUGPU9QPKPIRTĎ\GPGPGEQPQOKUEJGITQGKKP$GNIKÇ'EQPQOKUEJ6ĎFUEJTKHVFGEGODGT|. 30. 8QQTPCCOUVGTKUKEQoUGPCCPFCEJVURWPVGPGPIGPQOGPRTWFGPVKÇNG|OCCVTGIGNGP /CETQRTWFGPVKGGNXGTUNCI.

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