Rapid assessment of transport emissions in developing Asian cities: requirements of a sketch-planning tool and evaluation of the model RACE

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RAPID ASSESSMENT OF TRANSPORT EMISSIONS IN DEVELOPING ASIAN CITIES

Requirements of a sketch-planning tool and evaluation of the model RACE

Rik Arends

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{

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RESEARCH SCOPE

Problem 1. Problem analysis

2. Conceptual model

3. Model structure

4. Implementation

5. Verification

6. Calibration

7. Validation

8. Application and communication Dataset n

Dataset 1

Parameters from literature Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis Limitations

- objectives - time - data - training Objectives

(21)

(22)

(23)

(24)

- - - -

-

(25)

-

(26)

(27)

(28)

(29)

(30)

-

(31)

𝑬

𝒑𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒕

= ∑ 𝑨

𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒕𝒚

∗ 𝒆

𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒕𝒚,𝒑𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒕 𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒆𝒔

𝐸 𝑒

𝐴

(32)

-

𝑮 = 𝑨 ∗ 𝑺

𝒊

∗ 𝑰

𝒊

∗ 𝑭

𝒊,𝒋

𝐺

𝐴

𝑆 𝐼

𝑖 𝐹

_𝑖,𝑗

𝑗 𝑖

𝐼

_𝑖

𝑰

_𝒊

= 𝑬

_𝒊

∗ 𝟏 𝑼

𝒊

∗ 𝟏 𝑶

𝐸

𝑖

𝑈

𝑖

𝑂

𝐸

𝑖

𝑁) 𝑀)

𝑁

𝑀

𝑀/𝑈

𝑖

𝐸

𝑖

(33)

(34)

(35)

-

(36)

- -

-

- -

-

- -

-

(37)

𝑇

𝑖𝑗

= 𝐴

𝑖

𝐵

𝑗

𝑂

𝑖

𝐷

𝑗

exp⁡(−𝛽𝑐

𝑖𝑗

)

𝑇

𝑖𝑗

𝑖 𝑗

𝑂

𝑖

𝑖 𝐷

𝑗

𝑗 𝐴

_𝑖

𝐵

_𝑗

𝑖

𝑗

(38)

-

- -

-

(39)

-

- -

-

(40)

(41)

(42)

(43)

-

(44)

- -

-

(45)

-

o

(46)

o

-

(47)

(48)

(49)

-

(50)

-

(51)

β

(52)

Gro ss b uild ing area per bu ildin g typ e (m

2

) Veh icle trip gen erat ion rat es per bu ildin g typ e (tri ps/ m

2

/da y)

Veh icle trip s gen era ted (tri ps/ day) Per son trip s gen erat ed : Una dju sted (tri ps/ day) Veh icle trip s to per son trip s con ver ter

Adju sted per son trip s gen erat ed ( trip s/d ay) Trip rat e per cap ita * P opu latio n = Tota l Per son Trip s/da y Per son -trip mo de sha res (% ) Per son trip s p er mo de (tri ps/ day/ mod e) Aver age trip dista nce per zon e/d istric t (km )

Per ons -KM per mo de (pk m/d ay/ mod e) Dist anc e m atrix betw een zon es/d istri cts (km )

Veh icle -KM per mo de- fuel (vk m/d ay/ mod e-fu el) Aver age trip dista nce per mo de (km )

Aver age occu pan cy per mo de

Aver age spee d (km /hr per mo de) Adju sted Fu el effic ien cy per m ode - fuel ( unit /km ) Inter naliz ed trip s

CO

2

em issio n fact or (kgC O2/ unit of con sum ptio n) PM an d N Ox em issio ns (ton s or kg/ day) per mo de-fu el

Em issio n st and ard s split per m ode -fuel (%) PM an d N Ox em issio n fa ctor s p er mo de- fuel -sta nda rd (g/v km ) CO

2

em issio ns (ton s/d ay) per mo de- fuel 1 3 4 5 6 7 Fuel co nsu mp tion per m ode -fuel (un it/d ay/ mod e) 8 La nd u se en trop y ind ex per cel l

Disc oun ted veh icle trip s (tri ps/ day) 2

Fue l sp lit p er mo de (% )

Fue l eff icie ncy pe r mo de-f uel (un it / km ) 9a 9b

(53)

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-

(55)

(56)

(57)

(58)

(59)

(60)

(61)

(62)

𝑇

𝑖

= 𝐺𝐵𝐴

𝑖

∗ 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝⁡𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛⁡𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑇

𝑗

= 𝐺𝐵𝐴

𝑗

𝑇

𝑖𝑗

=⁡?

𝑇

𝑖

𝑖 𝑇𝑗

-

(63)

-

(64)

-

(65)

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(71)

-

(72)

-

(73)

-

(74)

-

(75)

-

(76)

(77)

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(79)

‐

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(81)

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-

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-

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(86)

(87)

𝐺𝐵𝐴

𝑚) 𝑧

𝐺𝐵𝐴𝑃

𝑉𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒⁡𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠

𝑧

= ∑ 𝐺𝐵𝐴𝑃

𝑚,𝑧

∗ 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑝⁡𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛⁡𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟

𝑚

𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒⁡𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒⁡𝑜𝑓⁡𝑡ℎ𝑒⁡𝑑𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔

𝑚

𝑡

𝑧

(𝑡

_𝑧

)

𝑡

_𝑧

= 𝑣𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒⁡𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠

_𝑧

∗ 𝑎𝑣𝑔⁡𝑣𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒⁡𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦

∗ 𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠⁡𝑝𝑒𝑟⁡𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎 ∗ 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛⁡𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒

∑ (𝑉𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒⁡𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠 ∗ 𝑎𝑣𝑔⁡𝑣𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒⁡𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦)

_𝑧

⁡

𝑖)

𝐿𝑎𝑛𝑑⁡𝑢𝑠𝑒⁡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑦 = ⁡ ∑ (ln(

_𝑖 _{∑ 𝐺𝐵𝐴𝑃}^{𝐺𝐵𝐴𝑃}^𝑖

) ∗

_{∑ 𝐺𝐵𝐴}^𝐺𝐵𝐴^𝑖

)

− ln(𝑖)

𝑁𝑀𝑇⁡𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 = 𝑁𝑀𝑇⁡𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 + 𝐿𝑈𝐸 ∗ 2%

(88)

𝑡

_𝑖,𝑘

= 𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒⁡𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒

_𝑖,𝑘

∗ ∑ 𝑡

_𝑧,𝑖

𝑧

𝑗

𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑦⁡𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒⁡𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒

𝑖

= 𝐴𝐷1

𝑖

= ∑ (𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡

𝑖𝑗

∗ ( 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡

_𝑖𝑗⁻²

∗ 𝐺𝐵𝐴

_𝑗

∑ 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡

_𝑗 _𝑖𝑗⁻²

∗ 𝐺𝐵𝐴

_𝑗

))

𝑗

𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑡⁡𝐴𝐷 = 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑡⁡𝐴𝐷 ∗

∑ ( 𝑡

_{𝑖,𝑆𝐶𝐸𝑁𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑂}

∑ (𝑡

_𝑖 _{𝑖,𝑆𝐶𝐸𝑁𝐴𝑅𝐼𝑂}

) )

𝑖

∑ ( 𝑡

𝑖,𝐵𝐴𝑈

∑ (𝑡

_𝑖 _{𝑖,𝐵𝐴𝑈}

) )

𝑖

𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑦⁡𝐴𝐷2

_𝑖

= 𝐴𝐷1

_𝑖

∗ ∑ (𝐴𝐷1

_𝑖 _𝑖

)

∑ (𝑖)

_𝑖

∗ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑡⁡𝐴𝐷

𝐴𝐷

𝑖

= 𝐴𝐷2

𝑖

∗ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑡⁡𝐴𝐷

∑ ( 𝑡

𝑖

∑ (𝑡

_𝑖 _𝑖

) ∗ 𝐴𝐷2

_𝑖

)

𝑖

𝑡

_𝑖

𝐷

𝑘

𝑃𝐾𝑀

𝑖,𝑘

= 𝐷

𝑘

∗ 𝑡

𝑖,𝑘

∗ 𝐴𝐷

𝑖

∗ ∑ 𝑡

𝑘 𝑖,𝑘

∑ (𝑡

_𝑘 _𝑖,𝑘

∗ 𝐷

_𝑘

)

𝑉𝐾𝑀

_𝑘

= 𝑃𝐾𝑀

𝑘

𝑂𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦

𝑘

⁡

𝐹𝐶) 𝑓)

𝑆𝑃𝐹

𝐹𝐶

𝑖,𝑘,𝑓

= 𝑉𝐾𝑀

_𝑖,𝑘

∗ 𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙⁡𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑡

_𝑘

𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙⁡𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦

_𝑘

− (𝑓𝑢𝑒𝑙⁡𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦

_𝑘

∗ 𝑆𝑃𝐹

_𝑖,𝑘

)

𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦⁡𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

_{𝑖,𝑘,𝑓}

= 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦

_𝑓

∗ 𝐹𝐶

_{𝑖,𝑘,𝑓}

𝐶𝑂2

_{𝑖,𝑘,𝑓}

= 𝐹𝐶

_{𝑖,𝑘,𝑓}

∗ 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑜𝑛⁡𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡

_𝑓

𝑃𝑀⁡𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡

_𝑓,𝑘

= ∑ (𝑃𝑀

𝑓,𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑,𝑘

𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑

∗ 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦⁡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑⁡𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑡) 𝑃𝑀

_{𝑖,𝑘,𝑓}

= 𝑉𝐾𝑀

_{𝑖,𝑘,𝑓}

∗ (1 + 𝑆𝑃𝐹

_𝑖,𝑘

) ∗ 𝑃𝑀⁡𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡

_𝑓,𝑘

𝑁𝑂𝑥⁡𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡

_𝑓,𝑘

= ∑ (𝑁𝑂𝑥

𝑓,𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑,𝑘 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑

∗ 𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦⁡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑⁡𝑠𝑝𝑙𝑖𝑡) 𝑁𝑂𝑥

𝑖,𝑘,𝑓

= 𝑉𝐾𝑀

𝑖,𝑘,𝑓

∗ (1 + 𝑆𝑃𝐹

𝑖,𝑘

) ∗ 𝑁𝑂𝑥⁡𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡

𝑓,𝑘

𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙⁡𝑖𝑛𝑗𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙⁡𝑣𝑘𝑚