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University of Groningen Dietary protein intake and long-term outcomes after kidney transplantation Said, M.Yusof

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Dietary protein intake and long-term outcomes after kidney transplantation

Said, M.Yusof

DOI:

10.33612/diss.170755325

IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please check the document version below.

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Publication date: 2021

Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database

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Said, M. Y. (2021). Dietary protein intake and long-term outcomes after kidney transplantation. University of Groningen. https://doi.org/10.33612/diss.170755325

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association of protein intake

with mortality and graft failure

in renal transplant recipients

Said MY, Deetman PE, de Vries AP, Zelle DM, Gans ROB, Navis G,

Joosten MM, Bakker SJL

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Abstract

The effect of a low protein intake on survival in renal transplant recipients (RTR) is unknown. A low protein intake may increase risks of malnutrition, low muscle mass, and death. We aimed to study associations of protein intake with mortality and graft failure and to identify potential intermediate factors. Protein intake was estimated from 24h urinary urea excretion (24h UUE). Graft failure was defined as return to dialysis or retransplantation. We used Cox regression analyses to analyze associations with outcome and potential intermediate factors in the causal path. In 604 RTR, mean ± SD 24h UUE was 380 ± 114 mmol/24h. During median follow-up for 7.0 yr (interquartile range: 6.2–7.5 yr), 133 RTR died and 53 developed graft failure. In univariate analyses, 24h UUE was associated with lower risk of mortality (HR [95% CI]=0.80 [0.69–0.94]) and graft failure (HR [95% CI]=0.72 [0.56–0.92]). These associations were independent of potential confounders. In causal path analyses, the association of 24h UUE with mortality disappeared after adjustment for muscle mass. Low protein intake is associated with increased risk of mortality and graft failure in RTR. Causal path analyses reveal that the association with mortality is explained by low muscle mass. These findings suggest that protein intake restriction should not be advised to RTR.

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Introduction

Although one-yr results of renal transplantation steadily improved over the years, long-term results are still disappointing, with approximately half of all renal allografts from cadaveric origin still being lost within 10–12 yr after transplantation (1,2). Considering long-term outcomes, it is important to note that proteinuria has been identified as a risk factor for mortality and graft failure in renal transplant recipients (RTR) (3). Proteinuria may induce kidney damage via various processes, including induction of an inflammatory response and fibrosis, direct tubular injury, and possibly even direct activation of the renin–angiotensin system (3–8).

It has been shown that decreased protein intake lowers proteinuria in adult patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) (9), possibly resulting from reduced protein-induced hyperfiltration (10). To improve long-term outcomes, a low-protein diet is therefore recommended for patients with CKD (11). A low-low-protein diet may, however, also have serious adverse effects, including an increased risk of malnutrition (i.e., protein energy wasting), which may be associated with loss of muscle mass, decreased capacity for physical activity, heart failure, chronic low-grade inflammation, and decreased survival (12–17). All these issues may be particularly true in patients receiving chronic immunosuppressive treatment, such as RTR. Importantly, in this particular patient group, there are no data on effects of protein intake on long-term outcome available. We hypothesized that in RTR receiving chronic immunosuppressive treatment, a low-protein diet is associated with signs of malnutrition, such as decreased plasma albumin concentrations, decreased muscle mass, low physical activity, heart failure, chronic low-grade inflammation, and decreased survival. We set out to investigate this hypothesis in an outpatient cohort of RTR.

Materials and Methods

Study population

For this prospective cohort study, we used data of RTR who participated in the Groningen Renal Transplant Outpatient Program. Adult RTR (>18 yr) who survived the first year post-transplant between 2001 and 2003 were considered potential participants

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for the program. Of the 847 eligible patients, 606 signed written informed consent and participated in the study from 2001 onward. Two patients did not have data on protein intake and were excluded, resulting in a total study population of 604 RTR. Graft failure and mortality of these patients have been recorded between 2001 and 2007. Patients who refused to sign informed consent were similar to patients that signed the informed consent and not significantly different in characteristics of sex, age, BMI, proteinuria, creatinine clearance, and serum creatinine levels. Exclusion criteria at baseline were overt congestive heart failure (defined as stages three and four of the New York Heart Association Functional Classification) and (earlier) diagnosis of malignancies with exception of cured skin cancer. If patients were having signs of infection (such as urinary tract infection), the baseline visits to the outpatient clinic were postponed until symptoms had resolved. The study protocol was approved by the Institutional Review Board (METc 2001/039) and is in adherence with the Declaration of Helsinki.

Measurements and characteristics of the subjects

We measured the study participants at baseline. We used blood samples collected after a period of overnight fasting of eight to 12h to record several blood and urine laboratory measurements (e.g., serum cholesterol levels and urinary protein levels). The urine laboratory values represent 24h excretion values. Previous studies of the same cohort describe the methodology of the laboratory analyses (generally routine clinical laboratory methods) more in detail (18–21). Blood and urinary urea concentrations were measured as urea nitrogen using an enzymatic assay (Roche Modular, Roche Nederland BV, Almere, the Netherlands). Proteinuria was defined as urinary protein excretion exceeding 0.5 g per 24h. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula (22). Body height was measured in meters, body weight in kilograms, and age in years. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated as weight divided by height squared. Obesity was defined as a BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 . Body surface area (BSA)

was measured in square meters using the DuBois formula (23). We measured waist in centimeters on bare skin between the 10th rib and the iliac crest. Blood pressure was measured in supine position as the average of three automated measurements (Omron M4; Omron Europe BV, Hoofddorp, the Netherlands). Physical activity was measured in metabolic equivalents of task (METs). A MET is an estimate of oxygen consumed at rest (3.5 mL O2/kg/min) and in this study used as multiples of the

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estimation concerned in h/wk. The METs were measured by a combination of the Tecumseh Occupational Activity Questionnaire and the Minnesota Leisure Time Physical Activity Questionnaire and processed as described in a previous study (24). We divided physical activity in tertiles: low (median METs: 0.50, interquartile range: 0.01–3.11), moderate (median METs: 13.5, interquartile range: 9.76–19.0), and high (median METS: 44.1, interquartile range: 34.1– 63.2). We used medical records to retrieve data on medication intake. Questionnaires were used to assess alcohol intake (in g/24h, based on the number of alcoholic beverages consumed per week, as reported by the RTR) and smoking status (never, former, and current). Alcohol intake was divided in quartiles: 0 g/24h, 0–10 g/24h, 10–30 g/24h, and >30 g/24h (25).

Data on urinary urea excretion (UUE; mmol/24h) were used for the analyses of the associations of protein intake and (graft) survival. Twenty-four-hour UUE levels of the subjects were regarded as an indication of their protein intake, as demonstrated in the study of Maroni et al. (26). Additionally, total protein intake was calculated with the Maroni equation to describe protein intake in grams per kilogram body weight per day:

Outcome measures

The status of the RTR regarding mortality and graft failure was assessed at their yearly visit to the outpatient clinic of the University Medical Center in Groningen, the Netherlands. Detailed information regarding mortality was retrieved from medical records and from correspondence with referring hospitals and general practitioners. We defined graft failure as retransplantation or return to dialysis.

Statistical analysis

To perform the statistical data analysis, we used ibm spss version 20.0 (2011, IBM Corp. Armonk, NY, USA). The variable of 24h UUE was divided in sex-specific tertiles.

We compared the means of several variables between the tertiles using one-way ANOVA tests for normally distributed, continuous variables, Kruskal–Wallis tests for asymmetrically distributed, continuous variables, and Chi-square tests (or

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Fisher’s exact test where applicable) for categorical variables. We used Kaplan–Meier analyses to study the associations of sex-specific tertiles of 24h UUE with mortality and graft failure, and we used log-rank tests to study the differences between the tertiles. We also used log-rank tests to study differences in cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular deaths and in graft failure between the tertiles. In order to be able to adjust for confounders and in order to perform causal path analyses, we applied Cox proportional hazards analyses as well to study the associations of 24h UUE (per 100 mmol) with patient and graft survival. Schoenfeld residuals of 24h UUE values (per 100 mmol) were checked in STATA version 11 (2009, StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA): the assumption of proportional hazards was not violated (p = 0.33). The associations of 24h UUE with mortality and graft failure and the associations of (Maroni-calculated) protein intake with mortality and graft failure were also checked for linearity using STATA version 11. There was no sign of a nonlinear component in the associations. Log-transformed 24h UUE had an inferior model fit compared to untransformed 24h UUE in univariate models (-2 Log Likelihood for mortality 1658 vs. 1657 resp.; -2 Log Likelihood for graft failure 655 vs. 653 resp., differences not significant). To minimize overfitting of the data in the context of limited numbers of events, we used cumulative models up to model 2, and in subsequent models, the variables were added to model 2 (27). We applied identical models for both mortality and graft failure regression analyses. Models 1 and 2 cumulatively adjust for basic and other potential confounders. Basic confounders were variables such as age, proteinuria, and eGFR, which are well-known predictors of mortality and morbidity (see introductory text). In separate analyses, we adjusted the association for potential confounders and for variables that may act as intermediates in the causal path of the associations. For the first part of these separate analyses, we added several different variables to model 2 to analyze the isolated effect of the different potential confounding variables (models 3–6). The variables selected for this part of the analysis were mainly variables that showed to be significantly different between the tertiles of 24h UUE. For the second part of the separate analysis, we added several variables in groups according to potential mechanisms involved in the causal path between 24h UUE and outcome. These variables were added to model 2 to analyze what mechanisms may play a role in the association (models 3–6). The variables were selected on basis of the literature on malnutrition and its possible consequences (see introductory text). We used waist as a measure of body composition, as among the variables of body composition

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(BMI, BSA, and waist), it was not only highly correlated with both BSA (Pearson’s correlation coefficient: 0.58, P < 0.001) and BMI (Pearson’s correlation coefficient: 0.81, P < 0.001), but also because it was the strongest variable associated with mortality in the Cox regression analyses (p = 0.001). We additionally adjusted the association of 24h UUE with outcome for obesity (Table 4, model 6). We analyzed the associations for continuous 24h UUE per 100 mmol increment. Finally, we repeated the above-mentioned analyses in secondary analyses with protein intake (per 100 mg/kg/ 24h, calculated according to the Maroni formula) instead of 24h UUE.

For normally distributed variables, means and standard deviations are presented, and for nonnormally distributed variables, medians and interquartile ranges are presented. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were given for the Cox proportional hazard analyses. A P value of ≤0.05 shows statistical significance.

Results

Twenty-four-hour UUE ranged from 62 to 791 mmol/24h, with a mean of 380 mmol/24h (SD: 114 mmol/24h). Mean total protein intake, as calculated with the Maroni equation, was 1.1 g/kg body weight per 24h (SD: 0.3 g/kg/24h), ranging between 0.4 and 2.1 g/kg/24h. The 5th percentile of protein intake according to the Maroni formula was 0.7 g/kg/24h, and the 95th percentile of protein intake according to this formula was 1.5 g/kg/24h. Baseline characteristics and potential factors involved in the causal path between 24h UUE and outcome are shown according to sex-stratified tertiles of 24h UUE (Table 1). RTR in the highest sex-stratified tertile of 24h UUE had higher BMI, larger BSA, larger waist circumference, used more antihypertensive drugs, had more often diabetes, and more often used antidiabetic drugs. They also had lower levels of heart failure markers (pro-ANP and pro-BNP), higher urinary creatinine and sodium excretion, and higher physical activity (MET). RTR in the middle sex-specific tertile of 24h UUE used more statins and had a higher alcohol intake. Urinary protein excretion and proteinuria did not significantly differ between the tertiles. Transplant-related characteristics according to sex-stratified tertiles of 24h UUE are shown in Table 2. RTR in the highest tertile of 24h UUE had higher serum urea concentrations. There were no significant differences in type of immunosuppressive medication used between the tertiles of sex-stratified 24h UUE.

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Table 1. Baseline characteristics and potential factors involved in the causal path between 24h

urinary urea excretion and outcome according to sex-stratified tertiles of 24h urea excretion Sex-specific tertiles of 24h urea excretion, mmol/24h

Tertile (n) I (201) II (203) III (200) P value

Mean urea excretion, mmol/24h 265 ± 61 376 ± 44 500 ± 76 N/A

Men 291 ± 59 409 ± 24 535 ± 73 N/A

Women 234 ± 47 334 ± 21 457 ± 57 N/A

Mean total protein intakea,

g/kg/24h 0.9 ± 0.2 1.1 ± 0.1 1.3 ± 0.2 <0.001

Demographics

Age of patient (years) 51 ± 13 52 ± 12 51 ± 11 0.31

Male gender, n (%) 109 (54) 112 (55) 109 (55) 0.98

Cardiovascular disease history

Myocardial infarction, n (%) 18 (9.0) 19 (9.5) 11 (5.5) 0.29 TIA/CVA, n (%) 13 (6.5) 9 (4.5) 11 (5.5) 0.67 Smoking status, n (%)b 0.35 Current 51 (25.5) 44 (21.8) 38 (19.0) Former 75 (37.5) 92 (45.5) 86 (43.0) Never 74 (37.0) 66 (32.7) 76 (38.0) Alcohol intake, n (%) 0.01 0 g/day 107 (53.2) 81 (39.9) 99 (49.5) >0 and <10 g/day 75 (37.3) 79 (38.9) 71 (35.5) 10-30 g/day 15 (7.5) 39 (19.2) 24 (12.0) >30 g/day 3 (1.5) 1 (0.5) 4 (2.0)

Body composition (recipient)

BMI, kg/m2 25.2 ± 4.5 26.1 ± 4.2 26.9 ± 4.0 <0.001 Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2), n (%) 28 (13.9) 34 (16.7) 36 (18.0) 0.53 BSA, m2 1.82 ± 0.2 1.88 ± 0.2 1.91 ± 0.2 <0.001 Waist, cm 95.2 ± 14.2 97.1 ± 13.5 99.1 ± 13.3 0.02 Blood pressure Systolic pressure, mmHg 154 ± 26 153 ± 22 152 ± 20 0.86 Diastolic pressure, mmHg 96 ± 12 91 ± 11 90 ± 10 0.31 Number of antihypertensive drugsc 0.01 1 antihypertensive drug, n (%) 58 (28.9) 46 (22.7) 43 (21.5) ≥2 antihypertensive drugs, n (%) 107 (53.2) 135 (66.5) 138 (69.0) Lipids

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Table 1. (continued)

Sex-specific tertiles of 24h urea excretion, mmol/24h

Tertile (n) I (201) II (203) III (200) P value

HDL cholesterol, mmol/l 1.1 ± 0.35 1.1 ± 0.32 1.1 ± 0.31 0.48

Triglycerides, mmol/l 1.9 [0.44–6.4] 1.9 [0.49–12.3] 1.9 [0.47–9.8] 0.53

Use of statins, n (%) 90 (44.8) 121 (59.6) 88 (44.0) 0.002

Diabetes

Diabetes, n (%) 28 (14) 34 (17) 44 (22) 0.10

Use of antidiabetic drugs, n (%) 13 (6.5) 28 (13.8) 38 (19.0) 0.001

Glucose, mmol/l 4.6 [4.1–5.0] 4.5 [4.0–4.9] 4.6 [4.1–5.2] 0.22 Malnutrition Creatinine excretion, mmol/24h 9.8 [8.2–11.8] 11.7 [9.9–13.7] 14.0 [11.7–16.4] <0.001 Serum albumin, g/l 40 ± 3.2 41 ± 2.9 41 ± 3.8 0.34 Inflammation CRP, mg/l 2.1 [0.9–5.2] 2.0 [0.8–4.7] 2.1 [0.7–4.8] 0.94 Blood leukocyte, x109/l 8.4 [7.0–9.9] 8.3 [6.8–10.2] 8.3 [6.7–9.9] 0.87 Procalcitonin, ng/ml 0.024 [0.018–0.038] [0.017–0.036]0.023 [0.017–0.034]0.024 0.14 sICAM-1, ng/l 609 [507–746] 603 [516–712] 598 [519–717] 0.47 sVCAM-1, ng/l 992 [750–1218] 939 [781–1179] 942 [772–1185] 0.82 Heart failure Pro-ANP, pmol/l 188 [113–306] 167 [101–287] 148 [96–229] 0.02 Pro-BNP, pg/m/l 395 [141–893] 304 [131–667] 229 [123–513] 0.01 Physical activity, n (%) 0.01 Low MET 80 (43.0) 58 (32.6) 42 (24.0) Moderate MET 53 (28.5) 59 (33.1) 67 (38.3) High MET 53 (28.5) 61 (34.3) 66 (37.7)

Sodium excretion, mmol/24h 109 [78–137] 126 [101–159] 161 [129–213] <0.001

Values of normally distributed continuous variables are presented as mean ± standard deviation. Values of non-normal distributed continuous variables are presented as median [interquartile range]. The values of categorical variables are presented as number (percentage).

Abbreviations: TIA: transient ischemic attack; CVA: cerebrovascular accident; BMI: body mass index ; BSA: body surface area; LDL: low density lipoprotein; HDL: high density lipoprotein; CRP: C-reactive protein; sICAM-1: soluble intracellular adhesion molecule 1; sVCAM-1: soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1; pro-ANP: pro-atrial natriuretic peptide; pro-BNP: pro-brain natruretic peptide; MET: metabolic equivalent of task (hours/week).

a As calculated with the adapted Maroni formula.

b Missing cases (one in the first tertile and one in the second) are not displayed and significance

for differences between tertiles is calculated without the missing cases.

c Non-users are not displayed, but were used for calculation of significance of differences

between the tertiles.

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Table 2. Transplant-related characteristics according to sex-stratified tertiles of 24h urinary

urea excretion

Sex-specific tertiles of 24h urea excretion, mmol/24h

Tertile (n) I (201) II (203) III (200) P value

Mean urea excretion,

mmol/24h 265 ± 61 376 ± 44 500 ± 76 N/A

Men 291 ± 59 409 ±24 535 ±73 N/A

Women 234 ± 47 334 ± 21 457 ± 57 N/A

Mean total protein intakea,

g/kg/24h 0.9 ± 0.2 1.1 ± 0.1 1.3 ± 0.2 <0.001

(Pre)transplant history

Pre-transplant diseaseb, n (%) 0.43

Dysplasia and hypoplasia 8 (4.0) 8 (3.9) 5 (2.5)

Glomerulonephritis 10 (5.0) 17 (8.4) 11 (5.5)

Diabetes mellitus 8 (4.0) 9 (4.4) 6 (3.0)

Polycystic renal disease 46 (22.9) 28 (13.8) 33 (16.5)

Primary glomerular disease 58 (28.9) 54 (26.6) 57 (28.5)

Renovascular disease 9 (4.5) 13 (6.4) 11 (5.5)

Tubular interstitial disease 32 (15.9) 27 (13.3) 35 (17.5)

Other/unknown cause 30 (14.9) 47 (23.2) 42 (21.0)

Dialysis time, months 28.0 [13.0–49.5] 28.0 [13.0–48.0] 26.0 [14.0–48.0] 0.99

Transplantation type, n (%) 0.21

Living donorc 21 (10) 29 (14) 33 (17)

Ischemia times

Cold ischemia times (h) 21.1 ± 10.1 20.1 ± 9.9 19.7 ± 10.1 0.35

Warm ischemia times (min) 40.1 ± 17.4 37.9 ± 13.4 38.2 ± 13.1 0.29

Number of transplantations 0.12 1 173 (86.1) 187 (92.1) 181 (90.5) 2 or more 28 (13.9) 16 (7.9) 19 (9.5) Immunosuppressive medication Prednisolone usage, mg/24h 10 [7.5–10.0] 10 [7.5–10.0] 10 [7.5–10.0] 0.96 CNI usage†, n(%) 154 (76.6) 156 (76.8) 163 (81.5) 0.41 Proliferation inhibitor usage††, n(%) 148 (73.6) 149 (73.4) 150 (75.0) 0.93

Renal allograft function

Serum urea, mmol/l 9.1 [6.4–12.1] 9.6 [7.4–13.7] 9.9 [7.9–13.2] 0.004

Serum creatinine, μmol/l 139 [111–169] 134 [114–168] 130 [111–159] 0.31

eGFR, ml/min 48.4 ± 23.8 49.7 ± 22.3 52.6 ± 21.8 0.17

Protein excretion, g/24 h 0.20 [0.05–0.50] 0.20 [0.00–0.50] 0.20 [0.00–0.50] 0.93 Proteinuria (>0.5 g per 24h),

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Table 2. (continued)

Values of normally distributed continuous variables are presented as mean ± standard deviation. Values of non-normal distributed continuous variables are presented as median [interquartile range]. The values of categorical variables are presented as number (percentage).

Abbreviations: CNI: calcineurin inhibitor; eGFR: estimated glomerular filtration rate.

a As calculated with the adapted Maroni formula.

b The percentages of the first tertile do not add up to 100% because of rounding. c Postmortem donor not displayed.

cyclosporine or Tacrolimus.

†† Azathioprine or mycophenolate mofetil.

During median follow-up for 7.0 yr (interquartile range: 6.2–7.5 yr), 133 RTR (22%) died and 53 (8.8%) developed graft failure in a cohort of 604 RTR. Of the total 133 deaths during the follow-up, 71 (53.4%) were of cardiovascular origin, 20 (15.0%) were due to infectious causes, 31 (23.3%) due to malignancy, and 9 (6.8%) due to other causes. The cause of death is unknown in 2 (1.5%) cases. All-cause and cause-specific rates of mortality and graft failure according to sex-cause-specific tertiles of 24h UUE are shown in Table 3. Kaplan–Meier curves of the inverse associations between sex-specific tertiles and the risk of mortality and graft failure are shown in Fig. 1A,B (Log Rank: P = 0.037 and P = 0.009, respectively). In univariate Cox regression analyses, 24h UUE (per 100 mmol increment) was inversely associated with risk of mortality (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.69–0.94, P = 0.003) and graft failure (HR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.56–0.92, P = 0.002). In multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses (Tables 4 and 5), we first adjusted for age, sex, waist circumference (as measure of body composition), eGFR, and proteinuria (as measures of renal graft function) in models 1 and 2. This did not materially change the associations of 24h UUE with mortality and graft failure. Further adjustment for other potential confounders (Table 4), specifically alcohol intake, use of antihypertensives, antidiabetic drugs, statins, urinary sodium excretion, serum urea concentration, and obesity (models 3–6), did also not materially change the association.

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Table 3. Mortality and graft failure according to sex-stratified tertiles of 24h urea excretion

Sex-specific tertiles of 24h urea excretion, mmol/24h

Tertile (n) I (201) II (203) III (200) P value

Mean urea excretion, mmol/24h 265 ± 61 376 ± 44 500 ± 76 N/A Mortality, n (%) All-cause 56 (27.9) 42 (20.7) 35 (17.5) 0.01 Cardiovascular 30 (14.9) 25 (12.3) 16 (8.0) 0.03 Non-cardiovascular 26 (12.9) 17 (8.4) 19 (9.5) 0.20 Infectious 6 (3.0) 6 (3.0) 8 (4.0) Malignancy 13 (6.5) 9 (4.4) 9 (4.5) Unknown 2 (1.0) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) Other 5 (2.5) 2 (1.0) 2 (1.0) Graft failure, n (%) 26 (12.9) 18 (8.9) 9 (4.5) 0.01

Analyses of differences in rates of mortality and graft failure according to sex-specific tertiles of 24h-urea excretion were performed by log-rank testing. Values are presented as number (percentage).

Table 4. Association of urea excretion with risk of mortality and graft failure, adjusted for

confounders

HR (95% CI) of continuous urea excretion (per 100 mmol/24h)

Outcome Mortality P value Graft failure P value

Mortality, n (%) 133 (22.0) 53 (8.8) Person-years 3860 3710 Model 1 0.75 [0.63–0.89] 0.001 0.67 [0.52–0.87] 0.002 Model 2 0.75 [0.63–0.90] 0.001 0.73 [0.56–0.97] 0.03 Model 3 0.76 [0.63–0.90] 0.002 0.61 [0.45–0.84] 0.002 Model 4 0.73 [0.61–0.87] 0.001 0.71 [0.53–0.95] 0.02 Model 5 0.73 [0.61–0.88] 0.001 0.65 [0.48–0.87] 0.004 Model 6 0.76 [0.64–0.90] 0.002 0.74 [0.56–0.97] 0.03

Model 1: urea excretion per 100 mmol/24h + adjustments for age, sex and waist Model 2: model 1 + adjustments for proteinuria and eGFR

Model 3: model 2 + adjustments for alcohol intake

Model 4: model 2 + adjustments for antihypertensives usage, antidiabetic drugs usage, and statins usage

Model 5: model 2 + adjustments for sodium excretion, serum urea concentration Model 6: model 2 + adjustments for obesity

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In Table 5, we adjusted the associations of 24h UUE with mortality and graft failure for variables that potentially lie in the causal pathway between 24h UUE and outcome, that is, malnutrition (model 3), inflammation (model 4), heart failure (model 5), and physical activity (model 6). The associations of 24h UUE with mortality lost significance when adjusted for creatinine excretion (mortality: P = 0.87), while that for graft failure became borderline significant (p = 0.09). Other adjustments did not materially affect associations.

In secondary analyses, where we analyzed associations of 24h protein intake, according to the Maroni formula, with mortality and graft failure, we found inverse associations of protein intake with mortality (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.83– 0.96; P = 0.001) and graft failure (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.80–0.99; P = 0.04). Adjustment for confounders did not materially change the associations of protein intake with mortality and graft failure.

Figure 1. Kaplan-Meier analyses.

(A) Kaplan–Meier analysis for the association between sex-specific tertiles of 24h urea excretion and mortality. Log Rank: P = 0.037. (B) Kaplan–Meier analysis for the association between sex-specific tertiles of 24h urea excretion and graft failure. Log-rank: P = 0.009.

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Table 5. Association of urea excretion with risk of mortality and graft failure and causal path

analyses

HR (95% CI) of continuous urea excretion (per 100 mmol/24h)

Outcome Mortality P value Graft failure P value

Mortality, n (%) 133 (22.0) 53 (8.8) Person-years 3860 3710 Model 1 0.75 [0.63–0.89] 0.001 0.67 [0.52–0.87] 0.002 Model 2 0.75 [0.63–0.90] 0.001 0.73 [0.56–0.97] 0.03 Model 3 0.97 [0.77–1.21] 0.79 0.74 [0.52–1.03] 0.07 3a 0.76 [0.64–0.90] 0.002 0.75 [0.57–0.98] 0.03 3b 0.98 [0.78–1.23] 0.87 0.74 [0.53–1.04] 0.09 Model 4 0.76 [0.63–0.91] 0.002 0.72 [0.55–0.95] 0.02 Model 5 0.79 [0.66–0.95] 0.01 0.76 [0.57–1.00] 0.05 Model 6 0.82 [0.68–0.99] 0.03 0.74 [0.54–1.01] 0.06

Model 1: urea excretion per 100 mmol/24h + adjustments for age, sex and waist Model 2: model 1 + adjustments for proteinuria and eGFR

Model 3: model 2 + adjustments for malnutrition: serum albumin and creatinine excretion 3a: model 2 + adjustments for serum albumin

3b: model 2 + adjustments for creatinine excretion

Model 4: model 2 + adjustments for inflammation: CRP, blood leukocyte, procalcitonin, sICAM-1, and sVCAM-1 concentrations

Model 5: adjustments for heart failure

Model 6: model 2 + adjustments for physical activity: MET

Abbreviations: eGFR: estimated glomerular filtration rate; CRP: C-reactive protein; sICAM-1: soluble intracellular adhesion molecule 1; sVCAM-1: soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1; pro-ANP: pro-atrial natriuretic peptide; pro-BNP: pro-brain natriuretic peptide; MET: metabolic equivalent of task (hours/week)

Discussion

In this cohort of 604 stable RTR, we found an inverse association of protein intake, as reflected by UUE with outcomes of mortality and graft failure. Mortality and graft failure incidence were significantly lower in the tertile with high UUE compared to the tertiles with intermediate and low UUE. Unadjusted, for each 100 mmol/24h of UUE there was a reduction of 20% in the risk of mortality and 28% in the risk of graft failure. These associations appeared to be independent of potential confounders,

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including age, sex, waist circumference proteinuria, eGFR, alcohol consumption, use of antihypertensive drugs, antidiabetic drugs, statins, 24h urinary sodium excretion, and serum urea concentration. With a mean value of 1.1 g/kg body weight, protein intake, as calculated with the Maroni equation, was far exceeding the American recommended daily allowance of 0.75 g/kg/24h (28–31).

To our knowledge, this is the first study that investigated the association of protein intake with outcome in RTR. Concerning factors potentially lying in the causal pathway of protein intake with survival and graft failure, our hypothesis was that low protein intake may be associated with signs of malnutrition. This appeared partially true: the association of 24h UUE with mortality was lost when adjusted for 24h creatinine excretion. Twenty-four-hours creatinine excretion is an important marker of muscle mass (32). Twenty-four-hour urinary creatinine excretion is known to be inversely associated with mortality and morbidity (19, 24). Creatinine excretion is likely to act as intermediates in the association of protein intake with mortality: it has been shown in the literature that increased protein intake stimulates muscle protein synthesis (15,33).

We are limited in comparison of our study and the existing literature, as protein intake has, to our knowledge, only been very scarcely studied in RTR. Our study is unique because of the large study population and the ability to study potential mechanisms of the association between protein intake and mortality and graft failure. Recently, we have found in a cohort of 940 RTR that protein intake is inversely associated with mortality and graft failure, similar to this study (34). We were, however, not able to explain the underlying mechanisms of the association. Van den Berg et al. (35) studied in a cross-sectional study in 625 RTR the association of protein intake with blood pressure, proteinuria, and creatinine clearance, but did not find significant results. We, similarly, did not find significant differences in blood pressure and proteinuria between the tertiles of 24h UUE. However, creatinine clearance was higher with each successive tertile. Bernardi et al. (36) prescribed a low-protein, low-sodium, low-lipid diet to a cohort 48 RTR, which they followed for 12 yr. Dividing this population into a subgroup of 30 RTR that strictly adhered to this diet and a subgroup of 18 RTR that was not compliant, they found that the subgroup that strictly adhered to the diet had stable renal function during follow-up, whereas renal function of the subgroup that did not adhere declined over time. It is not clear whether the subgroup that did not adhere to the diet also did less well adhere to prescribed medication, including immunosuppressive

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medication. It is also not clear whether the stringent diet may have led to the prevention of obesity, while non-adherence may have resulted in the opposite. This is important, because obesity is a well-established risk factor for decline of renal function in subjects with one functioning kidney (37). Despite these restrictions, the result of the study of Bernardi et al. is compelling. Unfortunately, however, it cannot be dissected whether it is the low protein component of the diet, the low sodium component of the diet, the low lipid component of the diet, the combination thereof, or the adherence to both diet and medication that has provided the results in this study.

There are some points of discussion regarding the advice to increase protein intake. Increased protein intake potentially coexists with increased obesity. On the longer term, this could be a risk factor for mortality and graft failure. We could, however, find no significant association of obesity with 24h UUE. An interesting point is that, as muscle mass is suggested to be a major factor underlying the beneficial association of protein intake with outcome, one may suggest that strategies other than increased protein intake may also be suitable. An increase in physical activity, for example, may also increase muscle mass, without loading the kidney with increased exposure to products of protein metabolism. Another point relevant to mention is that high protein intake may lead to increased glomerular pressure and proteinuria, with renal injury in the long term (10). Our data indicate that a low-protein diet may be deleterious. In our population, the 95th percentile of protein intake, calculated according to the Maroni formula, was 1.5 g/kg/24h. This does, however, not imply that this level of protein intake should be recommended to RTR. For RTR, there are currently no good data to base a recommendation on. In clinically stable dialysis patients, guidelines recommend a dietary protein intake of at least 1.1 g/kg/24h and preferably 1.2 to 1.3 g/kg/24h (38–40). Furthermore, in an analysis of more than 50 000 hemodialysis patients, survival improved with increasing protein intake, until a plateau was reached when protein intake was 1.4 g/kg/24h or greater (40,41). So, possibly, from the perspective of patient survival, a protein intake of approximately 1.4 g/kg/24h is close to optimal, but this may be beyond the maximum level of protein intake advisable from the perspective of graft survival, because in patients with CKD, usually lower levels of protein intake are recommended to prevent induction of hyperfiltration and associated kidney damage (10,40).

Some limitations warrant consideration: the single-centered design of the study and that 24h UUE provided no information about the dietary origin (e.g., animal or vegetable

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protein). Some studies in the literature suggest that vegetable protein intake may have advantages over animal protein intake (40,42–44). Importantly, vegetable protein intake is often linked with intake of alkalinizing compounds, which may be beneficial from a renal perspective (40). Protein sources of high biological value, however, tend to be of animal source, although soy protein is also of high biological value (12,45). It is, therefore, not yet clear what source of protein is preferable (40). Further research is required to give advice on which type of protein intake is most suitable for RTR. Reliable estimation of the protein source is essential to provide useful data. Research regarding biomarkers specific for plant or animal protein intake is still in its early stages, and biomarkers need to be developed further before being able to use them reliably on a large scale (46). A strong point of this study is that we used 24h UUE levels to estimate protein intake. This method has been validated before (47) and is more objective than questionnaires to estimate protein intake. We did not add proteinuria to 24h UUE in our primary analyses on the association of 24h UUE with mortality and graft failure. However, in these analyses, we adjusted for it and found the associations of 24h UUE with mortality and graft failure to be independent of proteinuria. In our secondary analyses, proteinuria was incorporated in the Maroni formula used for calculating protein intake. There were no material differences in results of the primary analyses with 24h UUE alone and the secondary analyses in which proteinuria was incorporated in the estimation of protein intake. The participants in this study did not receive specific dietary instructions during the follow-up, which benefits the external validity of this study (although it must be noted that daily intake may vary). Lastly, our study design is a prospective study with a follow-up of several years, which allows for complex survival analyses.

In conclusion, we found that a relatively high protein intake is inversely associated with reduced risk of mortality and graft failure. These associations were independent of age, sex, body composition, renal function parameters, alcohol intake, medication usage, sodium excretion, and serum urea concentration. The likely mechanisms of these associations are that higher protein intake increases muscle mass and provides more compensation for an increased energy need in heart failure or for physical activity. This study indicates the importance of diet composition in RTR and that relatively high protein intake in RTR may be beneficial. Future studies should aim at identification of the preferred source of dietary protein and should be preferable multicentered. Also, the optimum level of protein intake for RTR should be determined in further studies.

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