Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook June 27 - July 03, 2019
Light rainfall predicted in the western part of Guatemala.
1. Heavy rainfall since this past five weeks has result in flooding in southwestern and southern coastal area of Guatemala including coastal area of El Salvador. The local records observed an accumulation of precipitation over 100mm in the southern part of Guatemala which is located in mountains areas resulting to possible flooding and landslides. There is no tropical cyclone for the coming week.
2. Starting to the eastern coastal area of Nicaragua including Costa Rica and the northern Honduras, moderate to heavy rainfall is forecast during this coming week. Over western Nicaragua, Honduras, El Savador and eastern Guatemala, light rainfall is forecast for next week.
Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.
A cool air mass is forecast to move into northern parts of the region.
Over the past week, Guatemala has registered between 25 to 150mm of rainfall according to TRMM. The southern coastline of Guatemala, El Salvador and southern Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca also registered and increase of precipitation compared to the previous week. The eastern part of Honduras registered an increase of precipitation compared to the previous week, however, still experiencing a below climatology record. No storm activity in the coming week, however, moderate to heavy rain above 100mm is forecast to hit the western part of Guatemala and the eastern coastline of Nicaragua.
During the outlook period, models suggest rainfall will be above average with risk of flooding starting over southwest Guatemala, across the southern part of Guatemala decreasing through west El Salvador. A near climatology is forecast for El Salvador, west Honduras, except Costa Rica showing above 100mm. In contrast the forecast shows a deficit of rain over the major part of Honduras through Nicaragua. The eastern part of Honduras including the northern part of Nicaragua has been highlighted by an abnormal dryness.
Week 1 Rainfall Total Forecast and CMORPH climatology (mm) January 30 – February 5, 2019
Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC
