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Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook February 20 – February 26, 2014

Dry weather was observed over Central America during the past week.

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Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov or 1-301-683-3424.

Dry weather continues across Central America.

During the past week, dry weather was observed across Central America, with light (< 20 mm) rains over much of the interior of the region.

However, moderate to locally heavy rains were recorded over the northern and southwestern parts of Guatemala, Gulf of Honduras, and Atlantic coasts of Costa Rica. Rainfall measurement from raingauge stations also showed high amounts of rainfall exceeding 50 mm along the Gulf of Honduras and northern coastlines of Honduras. The observed rainfall during the past week was mostly average relative to climatology. However, drier than average conditions were observed over northern Guatemala, parts of eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, and Costa Rica over the past thirty days. In Guatemala, the dry conditions were favorable environmental factors that led to forest fires across the Chiquimula, Jalapa, and Zacapa departments, according to local reports. Since the beginning of the Apante, December- April, season to date, seasonal surpluses were observed over the Atlantic basin of Central America, whereas small seasonal deficits were registered throughout central Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras.

During the next outlook period, dry weather is expected to continue over much of Central America. Little to light rains are forecast over the inland of the region. However, the prevailing moist easterly winds are likely to bring moderate to locally heavy rains along the Caribbean coastlines. Farther south, suppressed rains are forecast over the Southern Caribbean. The continuation of dry weather could sustain favorable conditions for forest fires across many local areas of Central America.

Seven-Day Total Rainfall Forecast (mm) February 19 – February 26, 2014

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC

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