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SSW Telecon 04 Feb, 2016

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SSW Telecon

04 Feb, 2016

(2)

• Completed all presentations summarizing various methodologies that could be used

– Sang-Ki Lee – John Allen – Ashton Cook

– Hui Wang/Kirsten Harnos

(3)

• The most immediate question is what format of outlook to aim for? The answer to this

question will determine work during next

couple of weeks and discussion during next

telecon

(4)

• Initial suggestions on the format

– A basic format for seasonal severe weather (SSW) outlook may be a spatial map of category that is favored, e.g., a regions with enhanced risk for SSW (tornado and hail); regions with reduced risk for SSW; in principle, one could also have a region with enhanced probability for normal SSW (for

CPC’s seasonal forecast this is rarely invoked); and a 4th region for which nothing could be said

(climatology as the forecasts)

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• Map will look like the one John distributed

• In this approach, we will need to decide forecasts for how many categories – three (like CPC does for

seasonal); five (like the one on the right)

• My (Arun’s) preference is

three categories Fig. 1: Option1

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• We could stay with a map like Fig. 1 or add

next level of complexity in that add a pie chart that also illustrates probabilities for each

category

(7)

• The next level of complexity will be to produce a map like CPC’s seasonal outlooks for surface temperature and precipitation that also

differentiate probabilities within a category

(8)

• Given the state of science, will be best to stay

with either option 1 or 2. Comments?

(9)

• Additional considerations

– Will need a text statement accompanying the forecasts that describes science behind

– Will need a disclaimer that below normal risk for SSW does not imply letting the guard down!

• Gerry (and CPC) have considerable experience in dealing with above two points in the context of Hurricane Seasonal Outlooks, e.g., see http://

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurric ane2015/August/hurricane.shtml

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Timeline

• 08-12 February, discuss format for the outlook (via emails)

• 17

th

February: Telecon to present initial outlooks from various tools (in the format we decide on)

• 22 February: Telecon with final outlooks from various sources

• 23-24 February: Finalize the outlook

• 25 February: release

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