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Scatter Plots: SST vs. (OLR, Taux, LH, DSW)

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Scatter Plots: SST vs. (OLR, Taux, LH, DSW)

 SST, OLR, LH, DSW: Nino 3.4 region (120o – 170oW, 5oS – 5oN)

 Taux: Zonal wind stress in (170oE – 130oW, 5oS – 5oN)

 LH: Latent heat flux

 DSW: Downward shortwave flux

OBS

 SST: NCDC1x1

 OLR: NOAA Interpolated OLR

 Taux, LH, DSW: ERAI (LH also from OAflux)

CFS: 20 member, 0-month forecast

Five years selected: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2017

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• False alarms

• Delayed transitions

• Stronger amplitude

Nino 3.4 Index

(Wanqiu Wang)

2010 2011 2012 2014 2017

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OBS CFSv2:

Mean (20 runs) Individual runs (20)

Warmer SST Less OLR

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Warmer SST Larger Taux

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Larger amplitude of SW flux

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