The adoption of crop residual mulching
An analysis of bottom-up and top-down forces contributing to the successful implementation of crop residual mulching on a wide scale in the Yellow River Valley
Abstract
This research looks into the cultivation method of plastic mulching within the Yellow River Valley cotton sector. The multilevel nested framework proposed by Ostrom (2009) will be applied on the social-ecological system (SES) in which the cotton sector is embedded. A social geographic perspective is important to set out social interactions and dynamics within the multilevel SES. Secondly, an earth scientific perspective is considered to assess the ecological and agricultural components of which the SES consists. The dynamics of the SES will be assessed by analyzing the interactions that played a crucial role in changing the resource system; the Yellow River Valley cotton sector. These changes consist of the introduction of the plastic mulching practice and the implementation of Bt cotton within the Yellow River Valley cotton sector respectively. Finally, the identified dominant interactions will be applied to a future scenario of the adoption of residual crop mulching. The main finding isthat a top-down approach would be best suited for the adoption of crop residual mulching.
1. Introduction
3
2. Theoretical framework
5
3. Complexity and methodology
8
4. Results
9
4.1 The adoption of plastic mulching
9
4.2 The adoption of Bt cotton
12
4.3 The adoption of crop residual mulch
15
5. Conclusion and recommendations
16
6. References
17
1. Introduction
China is the largest consumer and producer of cotton in the world, however due to rapid urbanization, industrial development and population growth, the scarcity of arable land has become a limiting factor (Dai & Dong, 2014; Zhang et al., 2004). A rapid transition to intensified agriculture has taken place over the past 60 years which results in China’s productivity per area being double the global average (Dai & Dong, 2014). This has been made possible by the adoption of techniques such as plastic mulching, double cropping, plant training and super-high plant density techniques (Dai & Dong, 2014). Not
surprisingly, typically high quantities of chemical materials such as pesticides, fertilizers and plastic films are used (Dai & Dong, 2014). Dai & Dong (2014) conclude that the current intensive technology should be reformed, by supporting new farming technologies to make China’s cotton production sector more sustainable. This suggest that to sustain cotton production in the future current farming practices should be critically reviewed upon. However, since the current situation is not merely the result of technical
possibilities but more likely to be the outcome of decisions of different actors their incentives should be taken into account (Steinmetz et al., 2016).
A major contributing development to the growth of the Chinese cotton production has been the result of the introduction of plastic mulching, the application of a plastic layer on the top soil of agricultural fields, in 1979. The Chinese cotton research institute reports that currently 70% of Chinese cotton field use plastic mulching (CRI 2013, as cited in Dai & Dong. 2014). Plastic mulching has become an integrated part of the Chinese cotton sector which led to more water use efficiency and an increased yield (Lu, 1985; Xu & Liu, 2001 as cited in Dai & Dong 2014). Pollution originating from the plastic remaining in the soil is a major drawback of which the consequences are under scientific debate (Kasirajan & Ngouajio, 2012; Dai & Dong, 2014). Alternatives to mitigate pollution such as crop residue mulching exist, however this is not being implemented on a wide scale yet, while the consequences of altering practices would be considerable since the area covered by plastic mulching in China is more than 10.3 million hectares (Juan et al., 2012).
In this report, the social-ecological system (SES) in which the cotton sector of the Yellow River Valley is embedded is investigated. Furthermore, the interactions that played an important role in previous transitions in the cotton sector, the adoption of plastic mulch and Bt cotton respectively are researched. The focus for this report on the
examination of these interactions will be on both bottom-up and top-down approaches, as these are crucial in SES transitions (Olsson et al., 2006; Stringer et al., 2006). These previous transitions are used to draw conclusions regarding a transition towards the wide-scale application of residual crop mulch to mitigate the polluting effects of the use of plastic. The focus is on the Yellow River Valley production area specifically because more than 50% of China’s cotton output originates from this region (Gillham, 1995).
The wiscale application of plastic mulch occurred shortly after
de-collectivisation of agriculture induced by predominantly top-down approaches. The introduction of Bt cotton that occurred predominantly from bottom-up initiatives. To give
specific context the objective is to answer the following question: How can bottom-up and top-down approaches contribute to the successful implementation of crop residual
mulching on a wide scale in the Yellow River Valley?
Mulching in smallholder cotton production in the Yellow River Valley
The Yellow River Valley, is a major cotton production area, since the natural conditions such as latitude, soil grain size and water regime make the area highly suitable for agriculture (Gillham, 1995). As a result high production takes place; the entire Yellow River Valley accounted for 61.1% of China’s total agricultural output in 1995 (Gillham, 1995).
In the early 1980s, agriculture was de-collectivized and farmers became the most primary economic decision makers and switched from traditional to modern farming practices (Wang et al., 2008). At that time the practice of plastic mulching started to be adopted on Chinese cotton fields (Lu, 1985; Xu & Liu, 2001 as cited in Dai & Dong 2014). Mulching usually involves a thin (0.004-0.006 mm) plastic film that is applied on the top soil most commonly post sowing (Juan et al, 2013; Dai & Dong. 2014). Traditional
agricultural practices consisted of flood-irrigation and no mulching, but in order to increase the production after poor performance of the agricultural sector during the communist era, the government enabled a transition that took place by educating farmers through agricultural extension services, which led to cotton production that predominantly makes use of mulching (Zhang et al., 2008; Dong et al., 2006; McMillan, Whalley & Zhu,198; Zhi-Guo et al., 2011).
The use of plastic mulch has been reported to lead to the improvement of water use efficiency and soil temperature which were limiting agricultural yields (Fan et al., 2005; Liu et al., 2005; Tao et al., 2006 as cited in Dai & Dong, 2014). Despite these improvements that occur relatively short term, the long term effects of pollution by the use plastic film is a drawback that reduces both yield and soil quality. Hui et al. (2008) demonstrates that residual film from mulching, that usually consists of polyethylene, accumulates in the soil over the time (Juan et al., 2013). Depending on the amount of residual plastic the cotton yield is reported to declined between 1-7.5% as a result of the plastic pollution (Xie et al., 2007). The plastic is not easily degraded and can remain in the soil for 200-400 years (Wang et al. 2001 as cited in Dai & Dong, 2014). Thus, on the current track accumulation is likely and effects will last long into the future. At the same time the exact effect of pollution from plastic mulching on for instance microbial activity is still to large extent unknown (Kasirajan et Ngouajio, 2012).
At that end, it can be argued that mulching has been an important practice on Chinese cotton fields for many years that has contributed to the growth of the sector. The fact that existing alternatives are not applied could be contributed to the tendency of farmers to base their decisions mostly on short term benefits (Steinmetz et al., 2016). This suggests that the subcomponents of the SES in which the cotton sector of the Yellow River Valley is imbedded keep the sector in a state in which plastic mulching is the dominant practice.
2. Theoretical framework
This chapter will provide an overview of the theories used and how these theories relate to the Yellow River Valley cotton sector. These theories will form the basis of the
framework used in this report. First of all, the social-ecological system theory is
presented, this theory will provide an insight in how social and ecological components function within a broader social-ecological system (Ostrom, 2009). Furthermore, the regime shift theory is set out. This regime shift theory provides insight in what elements could contribute to the shift of current agricultural practices to alternative practices. Social ecological-system theory
The Yellow River Valley cotton sector is part of an interaction between a variety of actors and resources. The social-ecological system theory provides insight to the dynamics between these resources and actors. This theory states that social and ecological subcomponents are part of more complex, adaptive systems, called a social-ecological system (SES) (Walker et al., 2002). These social and ecological subcomponents interact to produce outcomes at the social-ecological system level (Ostrom, 2009). Furthermore, the outcomes feed back to affect the various sub components of the system (Fig. 1). The theory stresses the importance to gain knowledge about specific variables by identifying the interactions between these specific variables (Levin, 1992).
In order to assess SES dynamics, the multilevel nested framework of Ostrom (2009) is adopted. Within this framework, four first level core subsystems: resource system, resource units, governance system and users are identified. These core subsystems consist of multiple second level variables (Table 1) that can be selected depending on the SES of interest. The interactions between the core subsystems lead to an outcome which influences both the core subsystems, but also the related ecosystem and social, economic and political setting (Ostrom, 2009).
Figure 1| Subcomponents and interactions within a social-ecological framework, adopted from Ostrom, 2009
Table 1| Multiple second level variables within the multilevel nested framework, Ostrom, 2009
Regime shift theory in social-ecological systems
The regime shift theory is applicable in social-ecological systems when these systems are assumed to be multistable. A system is multistable when the system toggles between multiple discrete, alternative stable states (Angeli et al., 2004). A regime shift occurs when a system crosses a threshold and ends up in an alternative different stable state (Scheffer et al., 2012). This regime shift is often induced by perturbations, consisting of exogenous drivers and endogenous processes which lead to changes in feedback mechanisms (Norberg & Cunning, 2008) or the stability landscape, such as: changes in the positions of thresholds, positioning and number of basins of attraction (Walker et al., 2004).
Stable system state
The system state comprises the dynamical behaviour of a certain system. When a system tends to return to this dynamical behaviour after small perturbations, the system is in a stable state (May, 1977).
Multistable systems
Multistable systems are systems that are identical for their initial states, but can stabilize at very different long-run equilibria (Horan et al., 2011). These systems are subjected to multiple basins of attraction.
Perturbations
Perturbations comprise all the shocks to which the system is subjected. Within social-ecological systems it is important to distinguish between endogenous and exogenous originating shocks (Sornette et al., 2004). Endogenous originating result from
constructive interference of accumulated internal fluctuations (Sornette & Helmstetter, 2003). Endogenous perturbations occur within the system, examples of origins of these perturbations are predator-prey processes or switches in land management practices (Walker et al., 2004). Exogenous perturbations however, originate from exogenous drivers such as volcanic eruptions or landslides (Sornette & Helmstetter, 2003). Both endogenous and exogenous shocks contribute to the likeliness of a systems to cross a threshold (Ellner & Turchin, 1995).
Threshold
A threshold is the boundary between two basins of attraction (Horan et al., 2011). When perturbations and changes in the stability landscape cause a system to cross this
threshold, the system transitions to an alternative state (Brand & Jax, 2007). After passing a threshold, the system will end up in an alternative basin of attraction. After moving to this new basin of attraction it will become difficult for a system to return to the historic stable state (Brand & Jax, 2007)
Basin of attraction
The tendency of a system to reorganize and retain essentially the same structure, function, identity and feedbacks is called the basin of attraction of the system (Folke, 2006; Carpenter et al., 2001).
Regime shift/system transition
A regime shift or system transition represents the state change of certain systems after passing a critical threshold and ending up in an alternative basin of attraction. Within the new established regime, the system reorganizes, with or without recombining previously dominant elements into a new dynamically stable configuration (Rotmans & Loorbach, 2006). In social-ecological systems regime shifts comprises transformations in the political, economic, technological system structure and ecological processes of
transformation (Strunz, 2004). For these transitions to be successful, both bottom-up and top-down approaches are crucial (Olsson et al., 2006; Stringer et al., 2006).
Bottom up
Bottom-up changes within social-ecological systems originate from the lower levels of the system. Examples of these are changes originating from the community or local level in social systems (Stringer et al., 2006) and primary production in ecological systems (Field et al., 2006).
Top-down changes within social-ecological systems originate from the higher levels of the system. Examples of these changes are changes induced by predator forcing (Field et al., 2006) or government dominance (Stringer et al., 2006.
3. Complexity and methodology
Social-ecological systems (SES) are, similarly to ecosystems, prototypical examples of complex adaptive systems (Levin, 1998). SESs are characterized by nonlinear relations, historical dependency and threshold effects which lead to multiple possible outcomes with limited predictability (Scheffer et al., 2001). Furthermore, SESs are multilevel systems in which patterns emerging at higher levels originate from localized and cross level interactions which may feed back to influence the subsequent development of these interactions (Olsson et al., 2004).
In order to research the multilevel SES in which the cotton sector is imbedded, multiple perspectives have to be considered. Firstly, a social geographic perspective is important to set out social interactions and dynamics within the multilevel SES. Secondly, an earth scientific perspective should be considered to assess the ecological and
agricultural components of which the SES consists. Lastly, to combine these disciplines and analyze the interactions and outcomes between these ecological and social
components, a framework is needed.
Within this report, the framework of Ostrom, 2009 is adopted. This framework comprises a multilevel, nested framework which is designed to analyze outcomes achieved in SESs. The perspectives from both disciplines will be utilized to identify the components of which the framework consist and explore the interactions between them. A literature study will form the basis of identifying the components and interactions of the SES. The dynamics of the SES will be assessed by analyzing the interactions that played a crucial role in changing the resource system; the Yellow River Valley cotton sector. These changes consist of the introduction of the plastic mulching practice and the
implementation of Bt cotton within the Yellow River Valley cotton sector respectively. Finally, the identified dominant interactions will be applied to a future scenario of the adoption of residual crop mulching.
4. Results
4.1 The adoption of plastic mulching
Introduction
In this section an in depth analysis of the SES of the introduction of plastic mulching in China will be laid out. Only the most relevant interactions between the different subsystems from Ostrom’s (2009) framework will be given attention. First an oversight of the applied framework will be given, as illustrated in Figure 2. The relevant actors in the governance system of the plastic mulch SES are the government and the agricultural ministry respectively. The research institutes funded by the government and the different layers of the government, like the municipalities, also played a role. The users in this SES are the smallholder farmers, the resource unit is the yield and finally the resource system corresponds with the cotton sector in China. The definition of the
Stevenson (2010) of what a sector entails will be used in this analysis, namely: “A distinct part or branch of a nation's economy or society or of a sphere of activity such as
education." In our case the cotton sector encompasses the economic description of this definition as well as the sphere of activity.
Figure 2| Overview of the social-ecological system. Adapted from: “A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems,” by E. Ostrom, 2009, Science, 325(5939), 419-422.
The prevalent governance system (GS)
In the Chinese communist era, the whole economy was planned by the
hierarchical state, which dictated the supply, production outputs and consumer prices. In 1979, the strictly controlled collective farming from the communist era started to be gradually dismantled by Deng Xiaoping, as a result of the poor performance of the
agricultural sector (McMillan, Whalley & Zhu, 1989). At the same time, multiple provincial institutions started to constitute new programs, consisting out of research institutes and agriculture extension services to increase the agricultural production (McMillan, Whalley & Zhu, 1989). These extension services enabled, by means of the education of farmers, the implementation of new farming practices based on new scientific research. Two thousand municipalities started to coordinate the new programs and helped with the distribution of basic agricultural items such as fertilizers, pesticides and materials for farmers. In 1984, it was decided by the state to drop all quotas, except for the grain and cotton sectors, to increase the production even further (McMillan, Whalley & Zhu,1989).
The change in the cotton production sector (RS)
Around 1979, a shift took place in the dominant agricultural practices from
traditional practices, consisting of flood-irrigation and no mulching, to more modern, more water efficient practices, such as plastic mulching and drip irrigation. Tube-well irrigation had already been introduced around 1970 which made Hebei one of the leaders regarding irrigation (Yang et al., 2015).
Water efficiency was and still is an urgent issue. The water used for irrigation has to be extracted from the groundwater, because no surface water is available and the precipitation throughout the year is irregular (Yang et al., 2015). The average
precipitation is ca. 480 mm/yr of which 60-70% tends to fall from June to August (Yang et al., 2015). To place this into perspective, agriculture on the North China Plain is estimated to consume in the range of 800-900 mm/yr (Liu et al., 2002; Yang et al., 2015). As a result, recharge is not sufficient which is illustrated by a decline in the groundwater table of 1 m per year in the period 1970-2015 (Yang et al., 2015). Innovative irrigation practices contributed to the growth of the sector, made it become more efficient in the use of water, but the total demand for water still increased.
The rise in the demand for water can be attributed to the growth of the sector as a whole. The growth of the sector has been substantial (3.12% on average annually since 1949) with a sharp increase after 1979 (Figure 3)(Dai & Dong, 2014). Increases in total yield and yield per hectare have been so extensive, that the Chinese cotton fields feature the highest yield per hectare of all countries in the world (Dai & Dong, 2014). This
increase can be attributed to the adoption of new technologies and more intensive farming practices of which plastic mulching has been an important contributor (Dai &
Dong, 2014). Plastic mulching has played an even more important role in the growth of the sector than the introduction of innovative cotton varieties (Dai & Dong, 2014).
Figure 3|Average lint yield and total output of Cotton in China (1949-2009). Reprinted from “Intensive cotton farming technologies in China: Achievements, challenges and countermeasures,” by J. Dai & H.Dong, 2014, Field Crops Research, 155, 99-110.
The effect of plastic mulching (RS) on yield (RU)
The use of plastic much has been reported to lead to improvement of water use efficiency and grain yield (Fan et al., 2005; Liu et al., 2005; Tao et al., 2006). Stathakos et al. (2006) reported an increase in cotton yield because of mulching as much as 10-30%. However, some studies also report a reduction in yield in comparison to traditional
agriculture (Si, 2000; Xu et al., 2007). Also weed growth has been reported to be reduced in the early season.
The two main factors through which mulching influences yield, are soil evaporation and soil temperature (Dai & Dong 2014). When after germination the film is cut open to allow the seedlings to escape, the film is kept in place which reduces soil evaporation (which also results in a reduction in salinity stress), increases soil moisture and also increases the temperature of the soil.
An increase in soil temperature causes yields to increase, because low soil temperatures negatively affects emergence and crop establishment (Dong et al., 2009). Besides, retardation of soil evaporation increases soil moisture and the efficiency of irrigation.
The effect of governance system (GS) on the resource system (RS)
Although the government switched to a more market oriented approach, the government was still to a large extent planning production and managing resources by enforcing cotton quotas. This directly influenced the cotton production outputs as farmers had to meet the cotton quota and were able to sell their surplus to the market or to the state. This determined the increasing size of the cotton sector due to the interaction between the state-planned fixed cotton prices and the market forces (Sicular, 1988).
The effect of the governance system (GS) on the farmer (U)
In 1978, the governmental control over citizen’s personal lives was loosened and the private land lease replaced the collective system. Instead of the communal decision-making, which was linked to the mismanagement of the agricultural system, a production
responsibility system for farmers was introduced and widely promoted by the government
decision makers in terms of agriculture practices. Furthermore, farmers were able to gain
more income because they could sell their produced surplus on the market or to the state after they met the government production quotas (McMillan, Whalley & Zhu,1989;
Johnson,1982). Moreover, the cotton price was state-planned and farmers got a fixed price for meeting the quota. When farmers produced above cotton quotas and they sold their surplus to the government, they received a 30% price bonus (Sicular, 1988).
Although it was initiated that farmers became their own decision makers, in the mid 80s, the influence of the Ministry on the sector was still present because cotton quotas were still in place.
Outcome
In order to accurately describe the process of the adoption of plastic mulching understanding of the context of the political situation in China is essential. China’s communist system was still partly in place at the time of the introduction of plastic mulching. In a communist system the government is the foremost place of executive power, capable of introducing structural changes in a system. Plastic mulching was seen as a practice which would increase the yield of the sector as well as a way to conserve soil moisture. Consequently, it would play an important role in the growth of the sector, while at the same time stabilising the future of the sector (Dai & Dong, 2014). This stabilising effect on the desired state was essential since the groundwater level was dropping, due to the intensive cultivation (Yang et al., 2015).
The chinese government exercised their control over the cotton sector by means of the collective farming system, which entailed quotas and control over which
agricultural practices were used (Sicular, 1988; McMillan, Whalley & Zhu,1989). Due to this controlling power of the government, the adoption of plastic mulching can be qualified as a top down transition. The municipalities and government funded research institutes played a crucial role in performing extension services to ensure cooperation and education of the farmers within the sector (McMillan, Whalley & Zhu,1989). This influence of the government in the transition is illustrated in figure 4.
Figure 4 |The adoption of plastic mulching: dominant trend influencing the cotton sector. Adapted from: “A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems,” by E. Ostrom, 2009, Science, 325(5939), 419-422.
4.2 The adoption of Bt-cotton
During the adoption of Bt cotton the relevant actors in the governance system were partially the same as in the plastic mulching SES. The Chinese government and specifically the Ministry of Agriculture were still important actors in the system, even though the decollectivization of the agricultural sector had progressed. A significant change in the governance system was the opening of the market to foreign investments. As a result foreign companies, for example the American biotechnology multinational Monsanto, got involved in the sector (Huang et al., 2002a). The users in the SES were still primarily the smallholder farmers, the main difference with the plastic mulching SES is that they had now become the primary economic decisions makers. This was a direct result of the progress of the decollectivization of the agricultural sector, which itself stemmed from the gradualist approach of China’s move away from a communist society towards a more open market orientated one (White et al., 1996). Furthermore, yield also remained its role as the primary resource unit. Lastly, the cotton sector remained the resource system of the research. The introduction of Bt cotton had major effects on the sector, which will be elaborated on below.
The prevalent governance system (GS)
Driven by the opening-up policy in 1978, gradual and accumulative economic reforms were instituted by the Chinese government to move towards a more market-oriented mixed economy, while leaving the state apparatus intact, which caused a market economy with socialist characteristics (i.e. state capitalism) (White et al., 1996). In contrast to Russia and East European countries, the policymakers of China’s reforms didn’t follow the path of the transition to a market economy by making use of rapid privatization, also called shock therapy. Instead they used a gradualist approach with support and guidance from the state which has led to a more stable and gradual transition (Zhang & Yi, 1995). In March 1986, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology introduced the State High-Tech Development Plan in order to stimulate the development of advanced technologies to make China less dependent on financial
obligations for foreign technologies. One of the supporting areas of this development plan was the biotechnology research and consequently, large investments have been made in this sector by the Chinese government (Huang et al., 2002a).
In response to China’s pressing insect pest problems for cotton farmers, as the amount of pesticides per hectare used by Chinese cotton farmers was by far the largest compared to any other field crop in China (Huang et al., 2002b), new strategies by scientists from Chinese public research institutes were developed in order to create new cotton varieties, new pesticides and a new integrated pest management plan. The Chinese public research institutes were led by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) which is primarily funded by the central Chinese government. These institutes developed new pest resistant cotton varieties (Bt cotton) for China’s most common cotton species to tackle insect pests and these Bt cotton varieties were released in 1997 for commercial use by commercialized government seed companies (Huang, 2002a; Pray et al., 2002). Monsanto started to co-operate with the Chinese National Cotton Research Institute and two Monsanto Bt Cotton varieties were approved in 2000 for commercial use in China by the Chinese Biosafety Committee (Huang et al., 2002a). As a result, farmers bought seeds in a competitive market as competition between commercialized government seed companies and foreign seed firms drives the prices down (Huang et al 2002a).
The change in the cotton production sector (RS)
The introduction of Bt-cotton has lead to an increase in yield per hectare to such an extent that it resulted in the growth of the sector as a whole (Pray et al., 2002). The effect of Bt cotton on the growth of the total sector has been that large that it has pushed down the cotton price. However, the adoption of Bt cotton still had a net positive impact on the farmer’s income, also because of the benefits it has had on the farmers’
livelihoods. It is estimated that in 2003, 99% of the farmers were using Bt Cotton varieties (Wang et al., 2008). This is in line with the numbers reported by Pray et al. (2002) who state that about 3.5 million farms had adopted Bt cotton in 2001. The adoption of new varieties involved that seeds had to be bought from the market instead of using seeds from previous years. These seeds were more expensive than traditional seeds, although
change in practices is a reduction in the use of pesticides. These were used extensively previously, but buying Bt cotton seeds was much more effective and economically viable than using pesticides in combating the bollworm pest.
The effect of the adoption of Bt-cotton (RS) on yield (RU)
Pray et al. (2002) performed a survey under 4 million smallholder cotton farmers in China and concluded that the mean yield was 8-10% higher for Bt-cotton than
conventional cotton in the years 1999 and 2001. Yield increases have been this
substantial because it protects better against the highly prevalent yield limiting bollworm pests than the best available chemical pesticides (Pray et al., 2002). A common concern regarding the effects of genetically modified varieties is that effects are only temporary. Secondary outbreaks of other pests may arise, but also the pest may become resistant to the repelling substances produced by the GM-variety. Benefits may be high initially, but decrease over time because resistance reduces and pesticides have to be applied again. However, Qiao et al. (2017) reports that even 15 years after the introduction of Bt cotton no resistance can be detected.
The effect of the adoption of Bt-cotton (RS) on the farmer (U)
The adoption of Bt cotton involved a change in practices for the farmer as well as increased benefits regarding health and income (Qiao, 2015). The change in practices resulted in more available time for the farmer to invest in other tasks (Pray et al,. 2002). Furthermore, less farmers faced the severe health effects of pesticide poisoning (Pray et al,. 2002). Moreover, Wang et al. (2008) concluded that the increase in wages for cotton farmers is linked to the increase in investments in education, healthcare and leisure (Wang et al., 2008).
The effects of the governance system (GS) on the farmer (U)
The reasons for Bt Cotton adoption by farmers were to reduce the amount of pesticides, to save labour, to produce higher yields and make cotton growing more economically profitable compared to the traditional cotton varieties (Wang et al., 2008). Buying these seeds has been the result of decisions of four million farmers individually, because since the decollectivization of the Chinese agriculture, cotton farmers make their own decisions about what they plant and which technologies they use (Pray et al., 2002; Wang et al., 2008). Furthermore, the cotton quotas were completely abolished in 1998, even though these quotas were not effectively enforced since the mid 90s. This resulted in the further liberalization of the cotton market as farmers faced less pressure for producing cotton. Moreover, Pray et al. (2002) state that they found no evidence of farmers feeling pressure to buy Bt Cotton from the government. As a consequence of the further liberalization of the cotton market and the expansion of the cotton production, the government agencies were trying to discourage farmers by spreading conflicting
messages about Bt cotton, without success. While at the same time, the private and commercialized government seed companies were stimulating farmers to buy Bt cotton seeds. So it is confirmed that farmers make their own decisions to adapt to Bt cotton by assessing the costs and benefits (Pray et al., 2002).
Even though agricultural extension services were in place, cotton farmers mostly rely on informal information about Bt cotton (Wang et al., 2008). The most used
information source is from neighbors, friends and family and the second source comes from television and radio broadcasts. As an example, during planting, farmers plant their Bt Cotton only on the basis of their previous experiences and their neighbours farming practices.
Outcomes
The introduction of Bt cotton was directly initiated by the Chinese government, but does not qualify for a top-down approach. The Ministry of Agriculture funded research for the development of BT-cotton strains which would be more resilient against plagues and insects like the bollworm pest, with the aim to improve the yield of the sector (Pray et al., 2002). Even though the research was done by governmental agencies, the transition
towards the BT-cotton SES can be qualified mainly as a bottom-up transition. To a large extent this was due to the fact that the farmers in the system had become the primary economic decision makers. The de-collectivization of the agricultural sector combined with the move to a more open market resulted in choices for farmers. Since the government did not decide which crops they should cultivate and since 1998, cotton quotas were no longer imposed on them. Consequently, farmers were able to choose the type of crops and the intensity and method of cultivation (Pray et al., 2002; Wang et al., 2008). Furthermore, cotton farmers could choose where to buy their seeds. Apart from the strain of BT-cotton developed by the governmental research institutes, they could also choose strains from new foreign companies which had entered the market. This resulted in a competitive seed market, which in turn caused the seed prices to drop, putting the farmers in a unique position of power (Huang et al., 2002a). This powerful position in the market stands in sharp contrast with their historic position of being controlled by the government.
Since most farmers relied on informal information due to the lacking extension services, mistakes were made in the cultivation of the Bt Cotton seeds that could have been avoided. An example of this is the harvest of seeds from their crops to reuse them in the next crop cycle. With the traditional cotton strains this method works, but Bt Cotton loses his effectiveness after two to three years and should therefore be renewed. Better extension services and technical assistance from governmental agencies could have prevented this mistake, which results in a negative impact on the yield.
As mentioned above, the transition started top down, but given the lacking information distribution and the new position of power of the farmers, it is justified to label this transition as a mainly bottom up transition. The situation is illustrated in figure 5, where the arrow from farmers towards the cotton sector signifies the newfound
position of farmers, and the smaller arrow from governance towards the sector indicates the role the government played in introducing the Bt Cotton strain. It is essential to mention that the position of power the farmers obtained was the trend which can be identified as the main driver for this bottom up process. The role of the government can be summarised as protective, since by opening up the economy to foreign investors while still selling the cotton seeds themselves as well, they enabled the farmer to step into this position of power at the same time as driving the prices down.
Figure 5|The adoption of Bt-cotton: dominant trends influencing the cotton sector, proportionally to impact. Adapted from: “A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems,” by E. Ostrom, 2009, Science, 325(5939), 419-422.
4.3 The adoption of crop residual mulch
In this section an analysis will be performed of how a new transition of an agricultural practice, crop residual mulching, could ideally take place, taking the results of the two previous cases into account. The contrast of top-down versus mainly bottom-up approaches towards the respective transitions, illustrates the advantages of these approaches as well as the problems related to them.
The first factor identified was the value of a protective role of the government. This role can not be analyzed independently of China’s switch towards a more market oriented economy. As described in the transition towards Bt-cotton, by researching and selling seeds of Bt-cotton the government created a competitive market with the new foreign companies where the farmers profited from. Furthermore, as a result of the de-collectivization the farmers gained more freedom of choice. Given the fact that the adoption of Bt-cotton happened over a very short period of time, in the Hebei province it reached 97% of the farmers in two years, and as such is considered to be very effective transition, this indicates that given the farmers responsibilities has a positive correlation with the speed of transitions (Pray et al., 2002). However, since the adoption of crop residual mulch is not dependent on the provision of materials by companies the protective role of the government does not play a significant role.
The second essential factor for the successful adoption of a new agricultural practice is more limiting. The way information is distributed has a direct link to the manner in which an agricultural practice is executed by the farmers. Most agricultural practice transitions are initiated top-down, especially in China given the historic communist governmental system, wherein there was a strong hierarchy within the country. Nevertheless bottom-up induced changes can be identified, but only if the political climate facilitates these. Nevertheless, since in China new practices are usually researched by governmentally funded institutions, the responsibility of the distribution of information by extension services should y with the government. Since in both analyzed cases optimal results were impeded by lacking extension services, this should be an area of focus for the government (Wang et al., 2008). Since in the case of crop residual mulch the effects can only be noticed in the long term, this acknowledgement should be
incorporated in the extension services.
In both cases it becomes evident that improvements in both total yield and unit yield could be identified as driving forces behind the growth of the sector. In the case of plastic mulching as part of a governmental campaign to drive up the productivity of the Chinese cotton sector and in the case of Bt cotton as a development that made Bt cotton successful on the free market. Since residual crop mulching could be regarded as an alternative to plastic mulching with the absence of the negatives effects of plastic pollution, the question arises to what extent its adoption would influence yield.
Crop residual mulching is expected to reduce soil evaporation similar to plastic mulching. The exact quantification of the effect is however to large extent unknown yet, since no comparative studies between plastic and crop residual mulching have been
performed. Nevertheless, Kumar & Goh (1999) performed a study which showed
promising signs into the effect on evaporation rate.The theory is well-substantiated and based on a wide body of observations either observed before or after the proposal of the theory.
With respect to the negative effects of plastic pollution on yield on the long term, one could reasonably state that the adoption of crop residual mulch would result in higher yields compared to a situation in which plastic mulching is proceeded. However, it would more likely prevent a reduction than increase the yield. Moreover, the effects of plastic pollution might be more relevant in a system that not only involves the SES.
Another aspect related to this, is that other exogenous forces such as the international development of the cotton market clearly influence the national sector by means of price, trade regulation and others. Therefore the growth of the sector has been driven by more than the endogenous processes discussed in this report.
Factor Role in transition
Protective role government Enables bottom-up Information distribution by extension services Top-down responsibility
Increases in yield Incentive for transition
5.
Conclusion and recommendation
This research answered the research question: How can bottom-up and top-down approaches contribute to the successful implementation of crop residual mulching on a wide scale in the Yellow River Valley? The main finding of this research is that a top-down approach would most effective for the adoption of crop residual mulching. Out of the three main factors (table 2) the information distribution by extension services was the most imported in the specific case of crop residual mulching. The difference in the effects on yields, of crop residual mulching compared to plastic mulching, in the cotton sector of the Yellow River Valley is likely to be difficult to quantify for local farmers. Firstly, because residual crop mulching will prevent a decrease in yield, rather than stimulate an increase. Secondly, the effects of residual crop mulching on yield, compared to plastic mulching, will only be noticeable in the long term, since the plastic pollution caused by plastic mulching will not have immediate effects. If the intended goal of replacing plastic
mulching with residual crop mulching would not be clearly communicated, it is likely that farmers would not understand why they changed their practice.
The other two main factors identified in the analysis of the transitions towards plastic mulch and Bt-cotton were not applicable to the adoption of crop residual mulching. The protective role of the government is not relevant for the transition towards crop residual mulching. This protective role entailed governmental intervention in the cotton seed market and thereby driving seed prices down. The latter does not relate to crop residual mulching, as farmers are not subjected to the market for adopting crop residual mulching practices. The final factor, the increases in yield, are also irrelevant. In the transitions towards plastic mulching and Bt-cotton these signified an important incentive. However, as mentioned above the difference in yield between plastic and crop residual mulching is uncertain and expected to be very small.
This leads to the recommended future research. The results of a comparison study between the effects on yield of plastic mulching and crop residual mulching, would be essential information to determine the desirability of replacing the practice. Finally, research into the long-term polluting effect of the plastics used in plastic mulching would be advised.
6.
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7.
Appendix
Data management table
Data Management Table (Sub) Discipli ne Theory / hypothe sis Concept(s
) Assumptions / methodology Insight into the problem
Earth Sciences and Social Geograp hy Social ecological -system theory Assumptions: Ecosystems and social systems are subcomponents of a more complex adaptive system Methodology: The framework of Ostrom, 2009 is adopted in order to assess social-ecological system dynamics
The SES theory provides insight in the dynamics in which the Chinese cotton sector is embedded. Understanding these dynamics is essential when making recommendations.
Ecologica l economi cs Regime shift theory in social-ecological systems Stable system state Multistable systems Perturbatio ns Threshold Basin of attraction Regime shift/syste m transition Bottom up Top down Assumptions: Systems are multistable What dynamics cause the system to stay in place and what interactions can be identified to shift the system to another state?.
