• No results found

Risk assessment of peak exposures to carcinogenic substances. Report of a workshop | RIVM

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Risk assessment of peak exposures to carcinogenic substances. Report of a workshop | RIVM"

Copied!
27
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)

5,90UHSRUW 5LVNDVVHVVPHQWRISHDNH[SRVXUHVWR FDUFLQRJHQLFVXEVWDQFHV 5HSRUWRIDZRUNVKRS 30-%RV070YDQ5DDLM 7KLVLQYHVWLJDWLRQKDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGE\RUGHUDQGIRUWKHDFFRXQWRIWKH0LQLVWU\RI+HDOWK :HOIDUHDQG6SRUWVZLWKLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRISURMHFWµ$FXWHWR[LFLW\DQG5LVN DVVHVVPHQW¶ 5,9032%R[%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHSKRQHWHOHID[

(2)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

$EVWUDFW

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

(3)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

&RQWHQWV

6DPHQYDWWLQJ 6XPPDU\  ,QWURGXFWLRQ  %DFNJURXQGLQIRUPDWLRQ  :RUNVKRSUHSRUW  6WDUWLQJSRLQWV  3UHVHQWDWLRQV  'LVFXVVLRQ  5HVHDUFKSURSRVDO 5HIHUHQFHV $SSHQGL[ :RUNVKRSSURJUDP $SSHQGL[/LVWRI:RUNVKRSLQYLWHHV $SSHQGL[ 0DLOLQJOLVW

(4)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

6DPHQYDWWLQJ

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µVWRSH[SRVXUH¶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

(5)

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

(6)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

6XPPDU\

6KRUWWHUPH[SRVXUHVWRUHODWLYHO\KLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRUGRVHVDUHDUHJXODUFDXVHRI FRQFHUQ6LQFHFDUFLQRJHQLFLW\LVRIWHQRIJUHDWVRFLDOUHOHYDQFHWKHTXHVWLRQDULVHVZKHWKHUD VLQJOH RQHGD\ H[SRVXUHWRDFDUFLQRJHQLFVXEVWDQFHFDQJLYHULVHWRWXPRXUGHYHORSPHQW DQGLIVRZKHWKHUWKLVULVNFDQEHTXDQWLWDWHG7KHSUHVHQWSURMHFWIRFXVVHGRQWKH GHYHORSPHQWRIDGHFLVLRQWUHHIRUWKHHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHFDUFLQRJHQLFULVNLQFDVHRIDFXWH H[SRVXUH 6WDUWLQJSRLQWZDVDUHSRUWSXEOLVKHGLQE\WKH+HDOWK&RXQFLORIWKH1HWKHUODQGV7KH NH\TXHVWLRQZDVµ:KDWLVWKHHVWLPDWHGFDQFHUULVNRISHDNH[SRVXUHWRDJHQRWR[LF FDUFLQRJHQUHODWLYHWRWKHFDQFHUULVNRIWKHVDPHWRWDOGRVHRIWKLVFDUFLQRJHQGLVWULEXWHG RYHUDQHQWLUHOLIHWLPH"¶7KHDXWKRUVFRQFOXGHGWKDWVKRUWWHUPRUVLQJOHH[SRVXUHFRXOGJLYH ULVHWRWXPRXUIRUPDWLRQ7KHUHSRUWIRFXVVHGRQWKHGHULYDWLRQRID'RVH5DWH&RUUHFWLRQ )DFWRU '5&) GHILQHGDVµDIDFWRUE\ZKLFKWKHWXPRXULQFLGHQFHFDXVHGE\DVSHFLILFGRVH RIDFKHPLFDOFDUFLQRJHQDWORZGRVHUDWHVLVPXOWLSOLHGWRGHULYHWKHWXPRXULQFLGHQFHDW KLJKGRVHUDWHV¶)RUWKLVSXUSRVHH[SHULPHQWDOVWXGLHVDVZHOODVWKHRUHWLFDODSSURDFKHVZHUH UHYLHZHG7KHRUHWLFDOPRGHOVFDOFXODWHGPD[LPXPYDOXHVIRUWKH'5&)RIXSWRIRUD \RXQJFKLOGDFXWHO\H[SRVHGWRDQµLQLWLDWRU¶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

(7)

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

(8)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

 ,QWURGXFWLRQ

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

(9)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

 %DFNJURXQGLQIRUPDWLRQ

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µ:KDWLVWKHHVWLPDWHGFDQFHUULVNRISHDNH[SRVXUHWRDJHQRWR[LFFDUFLQRJHQUHODWLYHWRWKH FDQFHUULVNRIWKHVDPHWRWDOGRVHRIWKLVFDUFLQRJHQGLVWULEXWHGRYHUDQHQWLUHOLIHWLPH"¶)RU WKLVSXUSRVHD'RVH5DWH&RUUHFWLRQ)DFWRU '5&) ZDVGHILQHGDVµDIDFWRUE\ZKLFKWKH WXPRXULQFLGHQFHFDXVHGE\DVSHFLILFGRVHRIDFKHPLFDOFDUFLQRJHQDWORZGRVHUDWHVLV PXOWLSOLHGWRGHULYHWKHWXPRXULQFLGHQFHDWKLJKGRVHUDWHV¶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µ7KHDVVXPSWLRQZDVPDGHWKDWDKLJKGRVHRIDFDUFLQRJHQUHFHLYHGRYHUDVKRUWSHULRGRI WLPHLVHTXLYDOHQWWRDFRUUHVSRQGLQJORZGRVHVSUHDGRYHUWLPH:KLOHWKLVLVDUHDVRQDEOHGHIDXOWDVVXPSWLRQ EDVHGRQWKHRUHWLFDOFRQVLGHUDWLRQVGHSDUWXUHVIURPLWDUHH[SHFWHG¶7KHFXPXODWLYHGRVHPD\EHUHSODFHGZLWK RWKHUGRVHPHDVXUHVXQGHUWKHFRQGLWLRQWKDWµWKHUDWLRQDOHIRUWKHVHOHFWHGDSSURDFKLVH[SODLQHG¶

(10)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI  DQGRQHEDVHGXSRQWKH0RROJDYNDU9HQ]RQ.QXGVRQVWDJHOLIHGHDWKPRGHO 09.V  &KHQHWDO 7KH$'PVPRGHOLVEDVHGRQWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWQHRSODVWLF WUDQVIRUPDWLRQUHTXLUHVWKUHHWRVL[FKDQJHVLQWKHFHOOXODUJHQRPH$QDVVXPSWLRQ XQGHUO\LQJWKH09.VPRGHOLVWKDWWZRVHTXHQWLDOFKDQJHVLQWKHFHOOXODUJHQRPHDUH UHTXLUHGIRUPDOLJQDQWWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ7KHILUVWZRXOGEHEURXJKWE\DQµLQLWLDWRU¶ WUDQVIRUPDWLRQIURPDQRUPDOFHOOLQWRDQLQWHUPHGLDWH DQGWKHVHFRQGE\DµFRPSOHWHU¶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

(11)

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µHTXLYDOHQWDYHUDJLQJWLPHV¶ ($7 ZHUHFDOFXODWHGDVIROORZV7KHUHVSRQVH FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHGRVHUDWHLQWKHVWRSH[SRVXUHH[SHULPHQWZDVHVWLPDWHGIURPWKH GRVHUHVSRQVHOLQHIURPWKHOLIHWLPHH[SRVXUHH[SHULPHQW1H[WWKH($7ZDVFDOFXODWHG IURPWKHGRVHUHVSRQVHGDWDIURPWKHVWRSH[SRVXUHH[SHULPHQWLHWKHGXUDWLRQRI

(12)

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µLQLWLDWRUV¶DQGµSURPRWHUV¶RUµFRPSOHWHUV¶ZDVFRQVLGHUHGWREH GLIILFXOWWRPDNHLQSUDFWLFH,WPD\SURYLGHDQRYHUVLPSOLILHGGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHFRPSOH[ FDUFLQRJHQLFSURFHVV$OVRWKHRUGHURIHYHQWVLQWLPHZLOOQRWEHWKDWVSHFLILFH[SRVXUHWRD µSURPRWHU¶PD\SUHFHGHH[SRVXUHWRDQµLQLWLDWRU¶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

(13)

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

(14)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

 :RUNVKRSUHSRUW

 6WDUWLQJSRLQWV

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

(15)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI ‡ %DFNJURXQGDQGDLPRIWKHZRUNVKRS ‡ 6WDUWLQJSRLQWVDQGRYHUYLHZRIUHOHYDQWWRSLFV ‡ 3ROLF\YLHZSRLQWVDQGQHHGV 0LQLVWULHVRI+HDOWK:HOIDUHDQG6SRUWV 9:6 DQGRI +RXVLQJ6SDWLDO3ODQQLQJDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW 9520  ‡ ,P SRVVLELOLWLHVRITXDQWLWDWLYHULVNDVVHVVPHQWRIVKRUWWHUPH[SRVXUHWRFDUFLQRJHQV

 3UHVHQWDWLRQV

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µ:KDWLV WKHHVWLPDWHGFDQFHUULVNRISHDNH[SRVXUHWRDJHQRWR[LFFDUFLQRJHQUHODWLYHWRWKHFDQFHU ULVNRIWKHVDPHWRWDOGRVHRIWKLVFDUFLQRJHQGLVWULEXWHGRYHUDQHQWLUHOLIHWLPH"¶7KLVUHODWLYH ULVNFRXOGEHTXDQWLILHGE\GHULYLQJD'5&)ZKLFKFDQEHGHILQHGLQIRUPXODDV ,QZKLFK ,D  WXPRXULQFLGHQFHDIWHUDFXWHH[SRVXUH ,F WXPRXULQFLGHQFHDIWHUFKURQLFH[SRVXUH GD GRVHUDWH GDLO\GRVH LQDFXWHH[SRVXUH GF GRVHUDWH GDLO\GRVH LQFKURQLFH[SRVXUH WD H[SRVXUHGXUDWLRQ GD\V LQDFXWHH[SRVXUH WF H[SRVXUHGXUDWLRQ GD\V LQFKURQLFH[SRVXUH

,

D

'5&)

ZLWK

G

D

 W

D

 G

F

 W

F



,

F

(16)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI 4XDQWLILFDWLRQRID'5&)ZDVLQWHQGHGWREHWKHUHVXOWRIDGHFLVLRQWUHHPDGHXSRIVHYHUDO GHFLVLRQVWHSV3RVVLEOHIDFWRUVWKDWPLJKWEHRILQWHUHVWDUHZKHWKHURUQRW ‡ DQH[WHUQDOSHDNH[SRVXUHOHDGVWRDQLQWHUQDOSHDNH[SRVXUHLQWKHWDUJHWWLVVXH HJZLWK WKHDLGRI3%3.PRGHOOLQJ  ‡ VDWXUDWLRQRIWKHELRWUDQVIRUPDWLRQRFFXUV ELRDFWLYDWLRQRULQDFWLYDWLRQ  ‡ VDWXUDWLRQRIUHSDLUPHFKDQLVPVDQGDSRSWRVLVRFFXUV ‡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

 G

F

 W

F



6XEVHTXHQWH[WUDSRODWLRQWRDVLQJOHRQHGD\ WD H[SRVXUHDVVXPLQJDKXPDQOLIHWLPHRI GD\V DSSUR[LPDWHO\\HDUV UHVXOWVLQ

  G

F

 W

D







,

H





,

H

(17)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

WKHQWD DQGWKHRQHGD\GRVHGD    GF  GF

+HQFHLIDGRVHUDWHGFLQWKHFKURQLFH[SHULPHQWUHVXOWHGLQDQREVHUYHGLQFUHDVHGULVN ,H

RIGDLVHTXDOWRGF 6WDUWLQJIURPKLJKHUREVHUYHGWXPRXULQFLGHQFHVGDZLOOEH

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

(18)

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

 'LVFXVVLRQ

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

(19)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI $WWHQWLRQVKRXOGILUVWEHJLYHQWRWKHGHILQLWLRQRIDFXWHRUSHDNH[SRVXUH3HDNH[SRVXUHZDV LQLWLDOO\SUHVHQWHGDVDRQHGD\H[SRVXUH'LIIHUHQWGHILQLWLRQVDSSHDUHGWREHRSHUDEOH EHWZHHQWKH'HSDUWPHQWV'HSHQGLQJRQWKHW\SHDQGFLUFXPVWDQFHVRIDQDFFLGHQWDO H[SRVXUH HJDFFLGHQWGXULQJWUDQVSRUWDWLRQLQGXVWULDODFFLGHQWFRQWDPLQDWLRQRIIRRG WKH H[SRVXUHGXUDWLRQPD\ODVWIURPDIHZPLQXWHVWRVHYHUDOGD\V7KHUHIRUHVRPHSDUWLFLSDQWV IHOWPRUHFRPIRUWDEOHWRGHILQHWKHGXUDWLRQRIDVLQJOHH[SRVXUHLQFRKHUHQFHWRWKHGXUDWLRQ RIDQHYHQW$SHDNH[SRVXUHFDQWKHQLQFOXGHDIHZGD\VRIH[SRVXUH HJLQFDVHRI FRQWDPLQDWLRQRIIRRGSURGXFWV RUHYHQDIHZZHHNVLQWKHVLWXDWLRQWKDWDFRQWDPLQDWLRQLV QRWUDSLGO\UHFRJQLVHG 7KHGHYHORSPHQWRIDGHFLVLRQWUHHZDVHQGRUVHGLWZLOOSURYLGHJXLGDQFHWRFRQVLGHUDOOWKH UHOHYDQWHOHPHQWVLQYROYHG7KHVXEMHFWZDVFRQVLGHUHGWREHYHU\FRPSOH[LQWKHVHQVHWKDW LWZRXOGEHGLIILFXOWWRVHWXSVXFKDGHFLVLRQWUHHDQGWRLGHQWLI\DQGGHYHORSWKHDSSURSULDWH FULWHULD$WLHUHGDSSURDFKZDVVXJJHVWHGZLWKDILUVWURXJKHVWLPDWHRIWKHULVNWKURXJKOLQHDU H[WUDSRODWLRQDQGD'5&)RIHJWRVWDUWZLWK7KHRXWFRPHFDQEHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKHULVN IRUDFXWHQRQFDUFLQRJHQLFHIIHFWVDQDORJRXVWRWKHSURFHGXUHIRUWKHGHULYDWLRQRI ,QWHUYHQWLRQ/HYHOVIRU+D]DUGRXV6XEVWDQFHVIRUHPHUJHQF\UHVSRQVHSODQQLQJ7KH 0LQLVWU\RI9520VWURQJO\VXJJHVWHGWKDWDGHFLVLRQWUHHVKRXOGEHJUDGXDOO\GHYHORSHGLQ RUGHUWRDYRLGDWRRPXFKGHWDLOHG DQGFRVWO\ EXWOHVVZRUNDEOHWRRO7KH0LQLVWU\RI9HQ: DGGUHVVHGWKHQHFHVVLW\WRGHYHORSVXFKDWRROZLWKLQDQLQWHUQDWLRQDOIUDPHZRUNWRIDFLOLWDWH LQWHUQDWLRQDODFFHSWDQFHZKLFKLVIRULQVWDQFHRILPSRUWDQFHIRULQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDQVSRUWRI FKHPLFDOVXEVWDQFHV $QRWKHUSURSRVDOZDVDFDWHJRULFDOGHFLVLRQWUHHE\ZKLFKFDUFLQRJHQVFRXOGEHGLYLGHGLQWR FDWHJRULHVE\HJVWUXFWXUDODOHUWVDQGXVLQJZHLJKLQJIDFWRUV7KLVSURSRVDOZDVJHQHUDOO\ FRQVLGHUHGWRKROGSURVSHFWVWKDWQHHGIXUWKHUH[SORUDWLRQ$FDWHJRULFDOGHFLVLRQWUHHHDVLO\ RIIHUVWKHSRVVLELOLW\IRUDGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQRIFDUFLQRJHQLFVXEVWDQFHVDQGFODVVLI\WKHPLQWR GLIIHUHQWFDWHJRULHVEXWLWZLOOUHTXLUHDPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\DSSURDFK7KHDVSHFWRI GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQQHHGVIXUWKHUHODERUDWLRQLWPD\EHDGLIILFXOWWDVNZKLFKZLOORIWHQQRWEH SRVVLEOHEXWPD\DOVRQRWDOZD\VEHQHFHVVDU\)RULQVWDQFHDFKURQLFDQLPDOH[SHULPHQW FRYHUVH[SRVXUHRYHUDOPRVWWKHHQWLUHOLIHVSDQ ZLWKH[FHSWLRQRIWKHILUVWIHZZHHNV ,W PD\WKHUHIRUHSURYLGHDFRQVHUYDWLYHHVWLPDWHIRUVKRUWWHUPH[SRVXUHVGXULQJDVKRUWHU SHULRGRIWLPHHVSHFLDOO\LIGDLVPRUHRUOHVVHTXDOWRGF VHHVHFWLRQ 7KHFKURQLFVWXG\

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

(20)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

GLIIHUHQWLDWLRQRWKHUWKDQDOUHDG\PHQWLRQHGZHUHEURXJKWIRUZDUG)XUWKHUH[SORUDWLRQRI WKHSRVVLELOLWLHVIRUDQDSSURSULDWHPHWKRGIRUH[WUDSRODWLRQRYHUWLPHZDVFRQVLGHUHGWREH PHDQLQJIXO

(21)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

 5HVHDUFKSURSRVDO

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

(22)

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

(23)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

5HIHUHQFHV

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

(24)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

$SSHQGL[ :RUNVKRSSURJUDP

:RUNVKRS5LVLFREHRRUGHOLQJSLHNEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQFDUFLQRJHQH



VWRIIHQ 'RHOVWHOOLQJ 2QWZLNNHOHQYDQHHQEHVOLVERRPYRRUHHQNZDQWLWDWLHYHULVLFREHRRUGHOLQJELM HHQNRUWGXUHQGHEORRWVWHOOLQJDDQFDUFLQRJHQHVWRIIHQ 'DWXP MXQL 7LMG ±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

(25)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

$SSHQGL[/LVWRI:RUNVKRSLQYLWHHV

/LMVWYDQJHQRGLJGHQ:RUNVKRSGG  $-%DDUV 5,90  30-%RV 5,90  :+.|QHPDQQ 5,90  );5YDQ/HHXZHQ 5,90  070YDQ5DDLM 5,90  7*9HUPHLUH 5,90  0:005XLMWHQ 5,90  -YDQ%HQWKHP 5,90  +-YDQ.UDQHQ 5,90  &)YDQ.UH\O 5,90  3::HVWHU 5,90  PZ $-$06LSV 5,90  -&+YDQ(LMNHUHQ 5,90  0-=HLOPDNHU 5,90  &GH+HHU 7129RHGLQJ  9-)HURQ 7129RHGLQJ  ('.URHVH 7129RHGLQJ  PZ 3:YDQ9OLHW *H]RQGKHLGVUDDG  PZ 603RWWLQJ 0LQLVWHULH9:6  +5RHOI]HPD 0LQLVWHULH9:6  PZ -0GH6WRSSHODDU 0LQLVWHULH9:6  7%ORP 0LQLVWHULH9520  &YDQGHQ%RRJDDUG 0LQLVWHULH9520  /$&GH%UXLMQ 0LQLVWHULH9520  -YDQ=RUJH 0LQLVWHULH9520  PZ $%RQJHUV 0LQLVWHULH6=:  50&7KHHOHQ 0LQLVWHULH/19  PZ +GH:LMV 0LQLVWHULH9 :  PZ 7)0:RHOWMHV 0LQLVWHULH9 :

(26)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI

$SSHQGL[ 0DLOLQJOLVW

1-5. Directeur-Generaal van de Volksgezondheid 6. Dr. J.M. de Stoppelaar, Ministerie van VWS 7. Voorzitter van de Gezondheidsraad, Rijswijk.

8. Directie RIVM

9. Prof. dr. ir. D. Kromhout, sector directeur VCV, RIVM 10. Dr. C. de Heer, TNO Voeding, Zeist

11. Dr. E.D. Kroese, TNO Voeding, Zeist 12. Prof. dr. V.J. Feron, TNO Voeding, Zeist 13. Dr. P.W. van Vliet, Gezondheidsraad, Rijswijk 14. Dr. S.M. Potting, Ministerie van VWS

15. Dr. H. Roelfzema, Ministerie van VWS

16. Dr. C. van den Bogaard, Ministerie van VROM 17. Dr. L.A.C. de Bruijn, Ministerie van VROM 18. Dr. J. van Zorge, Ministerie van VROM 19. Dr. R.O.M. van Loo, Ministerie van VROM 20. Dr. T. Blom, Ministerie van VROM

21. Dr. A. Bongers, Ministerie van SZW 22. Dr. E. vd Stegen, Ministerie van SZW 23. Dr. R.M.C. Theelen, Ministerie van LNV 24. Dr. H. de Wijs, Ministerie van V&W 25. Drs. T.F.M. Woeltjes, Ministerie van V&W 26. Dr. A.J. Baars, SIR-RIVM

27. Drs. A.G.A.C. Knaap, SIR-RIVM 28. Drs. J.C.H. van Eijkeren, SIR-RIVM 29. Dr. F.X.R. van Leeuwen, SIR-RIVM 30. Dr. ir. M.N. Pieters, SIR-RIVM 31. Dr. A.J.A.M. Sips, SIR-RIVM 32. Dr. ir. M.J. Zeilmaker, SIR-RIVM 33. Dr. ir. M.W.M.M. Ruijten, LBM-RIVM 34. Dr. W.H. Könemann, CSR-RIVM 35. Drs. T.G. Vermeire, CSR-RIVM 36. Dr. J. van Benthem, TOX-RIVM 37. Dr. ing. H.J. van Kranen, TOX-RIVM 38. C.F. van Kreyl, TOX-RIVM

39. Dr. P.W. Wester, TOX-RIVM

40. Dr. R. van Gorcum, RIKILT, Wageningen

41. Depot Nederlandse Publikaties en Nederlandse Bibliografie, Den Haag 42. SBC/Communicatie

(27)

5,90UHSRUW SDJHRI 43. Bureau Rapportenregistratie 44. Bibliotheek RIVM 45-54. Bureau Rapportenbeheer 55-56. Auteurs 57-60. Reserve-exemplaren

Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

Van belang bij flexplekken is dat de beeldschermwerkplekken veel gemakkelijk instelbaar moeten zijn dan momenteel het geval is, dit om de bestaande klachten te verminderen en te

80 procent gaat goed Aan de deelnemers aan de ronde tafel is gevraagd naar het percen- tage collega’s dat niet meewerkt aan het invoeren van arbomaatre- gelen op basis van

signalisatie 9 juni 2017-9 November 2017. Koldamstraat

Overzicht van voorraden van stoffen Overzicht gemiddeld gebruik /

Verschil in gemiddelde scores met 95%-betrouwbaarheidsinterval tussen personen met COPD en personen zonder COPD voor elke dimensie van kwaliteit van leven voor respondenten van

QDDP $FHUFDPSHVWUH $FHUSVHXGRSODWDQXV $FKLOOHDPLOOHIROLXP $FKLOOHDSWDUPLFD $FRUXVFDODPXV $FWDHDVSLFDWD $GR[DPRVFKDWHOOLQD $HJRSRGLXPSRGDJUDULD $HWKXVDF\QDSLXP

Provincie Groningen RWS Directie IJsselmeergebied RWS Directie IJsselmeergebied RWS Directie Noord-Holland RWS Directie Noord-Holland RWS Directie Noord-Nederland RWS

Given the large uncertainties in emission estimates and in modelling of atmospheric transport and deposition, measurements are concluded to form a better tool for monitoring the