A gift of water? : visions, promises and understandings of development around Kenya's Masinga reservoir

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A Gift of Water?

Visions, Promises and Understandings of

Development Around Kenya’s Masinga Reservoir

William Clelland

Graduate School of Social Sciences

University of Amsterdam

Academic Period: 2017 – 2019

Supervisor: prof. dr. Dennis Rodgers

Second Reader: dr. ir. Yves van Leynseele

Email: wdclelland@gmail.com

Date: 23 June 2019

Word Count: 33,294

Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of:

Master of Science (MSc) International Development Studies (Research)

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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Dennis Rodgers for his support throughout my time at the University of Amsterdam, for his exceptional supervision and for his belief that an old engineer can tackle contemporary ethnography. It hasn’t been the easiest journey I have ever taken but certainly one of the most rewarding. I am also very grateful to Michaela Hordijk for giving me the opportunity to join the International Development Studies programme and listening to views from another side. More generally, I would like to thank the academic and support staff I have interacted with during my time at the university. Over the past two years, my own perceptions and understandings of development have grown and greatly helped in formulating the arguments made in this thesis. I must also mention my fellow students for accepting a greater degree of diversity than they were perhaps expecting.

To the people of Katothya, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude. The engagement and openness I experienced during my time in the community offered rich knowledge that forms the basis of this thesis. My time there was both fruitful and enjoyable. Thank you to Peter Silu and Patrick Nzomo for support with logistics and translation. I would also like to acknowledge the commitment of Peninah Muema in leading the Community Development Group and the many others who played an active role. Collaborating in such an environment will help shape the future of the community.

Finally, I would like to thank my family who have acted as my own railings while steering through the mist of a new course. It was my father who taught me the value of learning and my son, Alastair, from whom I continue to learn. This thesis is dedicated to both.

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Abstract

Visions of societal transformation frequently dominate decisions surrounding large infrastructure projects in the global south and success is often hastily declared through the (mis)use of aggregated metrics. Such visions are often utilitarian in nature – the benefits accruing to large, relatively affluent groups while the costs are borne by marginalised communities. These approaches obscure the heterogeneity of encounters with such projects and fail to consider longer-term impacts on communities whose lives they can significantly disrupt. Further, it is seldom considered that such communities also need to anticipate the future to manage the disruptions they will experience or be in a position to take advantage of opportunities. Drawing on five-months of ethnographic fieldwork at Masinga dam and reservoir in Kenya, the research has privileged local experiences and longer-term views of this major hydropower development, 40 years after construction work began. Incorporating a survey, extensive semi-structured interviews, and group discussions, a mixed methods research design has been used to examine the visions of planners, the promises of politicians and the perspectives, both past and present, of a nearby community, in order to understand how Masinga reservoir and the associated development discourse have been assimilated locally.

The study found that, despite the many issues associated with Masinga, the “gift” of water, as represented by the construction of the dam and flooding of the reservoir, has been overwhelmingly embraced by the community. However, the failure to maintain constructive stakeholder relationships has meant the project failed to act as a catalyst for subsequent equitable and sustainable development. Past and present conflicts over access to water have impacted the capacity of the community to work together and mature an inclusive vision of development. Additionally, the people consider Masinga reservoir from their own local perspective and have not made the connection that the water helps maintain a healthy ecosystem and supports communities across the river basin. The study concludes that for infrastructure projects, such as the Masinga dam, to stimulate inclusive development, the longer-term impact on social relations must be considered by decision makers. Moreover, development authorities should explicitly increase the visibility of issues faced not just by nearby communities but by a much wider range of stakeholders.

With a resurgence of interest in large hydropower schemes in the global south, developing a common vision of what lies beyond a project is critical to achieving equitable and sustainable change.

Keywords

ethnography, hydropower, inclusive development, infrastructure, Kenya, mixed methods, sense of future, vision of development, water equity.

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1. Introduction

On 11th_{August 2018, I arrived at my fieldwork location – the community of Katothya,}

near the Masinga hydropower scheme in Kenya. A few days later, my brother sent an article from The Guardian1_{. It described research on how pastoral societies near Lake}

Turkana in northern Kenya would have lived 5,000 years ago. The study concluded that, in contrast to agrarian societies, the pastoralists had followed ‘a different trajectory of social change’ (Burke, 2018) – one where, despite scarce resources, cooperation and a flat social structure was prevalent. I did not have high hopes that the community in Katothya would be similar to that of the pastoralists described in the article. Stories of conflict had already been related to me and I had experienced the hierarchical nature of society. However, my feeling on reading the article was one of inspiration. If the researchers at Lake Turkana could build a picture of a society from 5,000 years ago then it should be possible to examine the trajectories of social change in Katothya over the past few decades.

Almost forty years ago, a major infrastructure project was undertaken near the community of Katothya – the Masinga dam was constructed, the reservoir2_was

flooded, and water arrived at the doorstep of the community. At that time, people welcomed the close proximity of the water and those responsible for delivering the project may have felt their job had been done well – the hydropower scheme would support the nation’s modernising agenda and even some of those most disrupted by the project were experiencing its benefits. Frequently, however, the degree of success of major development interventions are too rapidly assessed using broad economic metrics that fail to capture the heterogeneity of encounters with such undertakings. To help fill this gap in knowledge, my thesis aims to look beyond such project focussed performance measures to understand how large infrastructure developments are assimilated locally over the longer term. By examining the situation in Katothya some decades after the Masinga project was delivered and privileging the views of local

1_{A UK daily newspaper.}

2_{The local people often refer to Masinga reservoir as ‘the river’ – this term is seen in some of the quotes}

used in the thesis.

Kenya burial site shows community spirit of herders 5,000 years ago

Large-scale cemetery in Africa points to shared workload without social hierarchy

Herders in east Africa 5,000 years ago lived in peaceful communities that shunned social hierarchies, communicated intensively and worked together to build massive cemeteries, new research by archaeologists has revealed.

Work by a team of US-based experts on a remote site near Lake Turkana in Kenya contradicts longstanding beliefs about the origins of the first civilisations. It suggests early communities did not inevitably develop powerful elites or compete violently for scarce resources, but may have worked together to overcome challenges instead.

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people, my goal has been to understand how the post-implementation trajectories of change experienced within the community have influenced people’s visions of development and their capacity to work together to shape a sustainable future. In an age witnessing a resurgence of interest in large hydropower schemes, it will be essential to construct a common vision of what lies beyond major infrastructure projects if they are to be a catalyst for inclusive change.

To better explain the focus of my thesis and the value that it aims to add, some contextual information is provided.

1.1 Background

Over the period 2016 to 2040, infrastructure spending in Africa is expected to be over 6 trillion USD (Heathcote, 2017). Further, with the Sustainable Development Goals aiming to achieve universal access to clean water and electricity, approval of major water and energy infrastructure projects can be expected in the coming years (Siciliano and Urban, 2017). In fact, hydropower electricity generation is predicted to grow by a further 10% by 2023 (International Energy Authority, 2019). However, it has long been recognised that infrastructure projects can have negative impacts on nature and people – large projects can lead to the displacement of local communities and wildlife, the destruction of cultural resources and put pressure on scarce land and water assets. Indeed, the World Bank acknowledged the ‘need to bring sociological and anthropological concepts into project design from the beginning’ to understand the ‘social and cultural context’ and improve the effectiveness of projects (Cernea, 1991, p. 429).

Although most development interventions are aimed at marginalised people, infrastructure projects are somewhat utilitarian in nature – they target large and often relatively affluent groups in society but also frequently involve significant disruption to the lives of the most marginalised. In the past, projects were justified because it was felt the benefits (to the many) outweighed the costs (to the few). However, in 2000, the Report of the World Commission on Dams (WCD) stated: ‘Applying a ‘balance sheet’ approach to assess the costs and benefits of large dams, where inequities exist in the distribution of these costs and benefits, is seen as unacceptable’ (WCD, 2000, p. xxxi).

Vanclay (2017, p. 3) observes that ‘infrastructure projects typically require land, and sometimes very large tracts of land’ resulting in project-induced displacement and resettlement. A review of academic literature on the social impact of dams concluded that the majority of studies focus on such resettlement issues (Kirchherr et al., 2016). However, hydropower projects will often have an impact over a wide geographical area. For example, to reduce sedimentation in the reservoir, there can be restrictions on farming in the river basin catchment area upstream. There can also be significant changes to the flow pattern of the river downstream which may adversely impact the environment and the fertility of farmland (Postel and Richter, 2003; Okuku et al., 2016). These issues have been encountered in the Tana River Basin (van Beukering and de Moel, 2015), the environment in which the Masinga dam and other hydropower schemes operate.

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In the past, major hydropower projects have involved some level of compensation for those disrupted. This was the case during the construction of the Masinga dam in the 1970s, where people who were to lose land and property received monetary compensation3_{. More recently, hydropower projects have incorporated benefit}

sharing where agreements are negotiated with the communities impacted – the benefits may be in the form of a proportion of the revenue generated, the setting up of development funds, livelihood opportunities for smallholder farmers or secure access to land (Skinner, 2016).

Much research has already been done on the social impact of dams and Kirchherr et al. (2016) conclude that this has focussed on the operational phase with many studies considering the period 5 to 10 years after resettlement. Some studies mention the need to ensure equity of access to resources but the analysis is usually done at a high level – ‘within and between nations; between urban and rural populations; between upstream and downstream interests; between agricultural, industrial and domestic sectors; and between human needs and the requirements of a healthy environment’ (WCD, 2000, p. xxix). For example, Siciliano and Urban (2017) discuss distributive justice at dam sites in Africa and Asia where they examined the competition for resources between villagers, urban settlers, local government and dam builders. In framing the research described in this thesis, two academic papers, which extend the discourse beyond the analyses mentioned above, have been useful. Both papers have examined the longer-term impacts of dams, and both have considered the heterogeneities of experience found within the communities studied. Some 25 years after Indonesia’s Saguling dam was flooded, Sunardi et al. (2013) investigated the impact on people’s livelihoods. In two villages near the reservoir, they found inequality in access to resources and to the opportunities this brings. They recommend that policy makers should consider the long-term consequences of the dam and that this requires extensive dialogue with local people to understand the diversity of their backgrounds and, thereby, avoid exacerbating inequalities. As Cleaver (1999, p. 599) suggests, there needs to be a better understanding of ‘the non-project nature of people’s lives’. In the second paper, Takesada (2009) conducted interviews within a resettled community 50 years after they were displaced during construction of Japan’s Ikawa dam. He concludes that a variety of drivers guided the resettlement decisions of those displaced and that planners should pay adequate attention to such a diversity of views. He states that ‘resettlers should not be treated as mere beneficiaries or victims of resettlement’ and that their participation in the planning stage gives ‘a valuable opportunity for planners to learn about resettlers’ possible choices and strategies’ (ibid. p. 429). Many of those displaced were satisfied with the outcome of the resettlement programme – their main priority had been to secure improved opportunities for the next generation and this aspiration was realised. Based on such foresight, Takesada (2009, p. 429) suggests that ‘the planner could explore the kind of life courses they may have within the project area or the

3_{Land-for-land compensation is often preferred by international organisations, but monetary}

compensation can have benefits when those people impacted wish to change their occupation or move to an urban area (Fujikura and Nakayama, 2013).

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country’. Although acknowledging that it is ‘virtually impossible to foresee all possible outcomes’, he does believe there is scope to ‘consider future uncertainty in the planning of resettlement’ (ibid. p. 429). I will now describe how my own research builds on these studies and the importance of considering diversity within communities as well as the future thinking of the actors involved in and impacted by major infrastructure projects.

1.2 Research Focus and Justification

Located 160 km by road from Nairobi, the Masinga dam commenced operations in 1981 and is one of a series of hydropower schemes on the Tana River (Fig. 1.1). At high water level, the Masinga reservoir covers an area of 120 km2_{and extends 45 km}

upstream of the dam. My fieldwork location was the rural community of Katothya situated on the shores of the reservoir. Apart from a small market area, most of the dwellings in the community are farms dispersed across the four contiguous villages that make-up Katothya. An overview of the community is given in Appendix A.

Figure 1.1 Fieldwork location.

Although the community was disrupted by the hydropower scheme, only some families lost land and were displaced. A few of those moved away after receiving compensation, but most had sufficient remaining land or could buy new land to allow them to remain in the area. The community also experienced benefits from this major infrastructure project – water was brought near.

Many studies have taken a broad approach to examining the social impact of hydropower schemes. In this research, I have focussed on a single community to understand the heterogeneity of encounters experienced by the people of Katothya

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over the past 40 years and explore the conflicts that have occurred and opportunities that have arisen over the same period.

Cernea (2004) suggests that those responsible for planning dams should focus on preventing adverse impacts rather than simply alleviating any harmful consequences after they occur. I believe planners4_{should do more than this – ‘the empowering}

effects of any project are little explored’ (Cleaver, 1999, p. 599). Indeed, I consider that major infrastructure projects can be the catalyst for future inclusive change and this aspect should be addressed early in the planning process. Important in such considerations are the visions of development of the various stakeholders – the development actors, those in authority and the people in the communities impacted. This is a further motivation for my research.

With such a temporal focus, a cornerstone of the study is the intertwining of current experiences across the community with understandings of people’s pasts and their perceptions of the future. Listening to personal histories will give an appreciation of the social context in which the Masinga dam was built and allow subsequent trajectories of change and conflict to be traced. Similarly, asking people to picture their own future and that of the community will provide insights on opportunities for inclusive development and constraints that may be faced. Such an approach requires the integration of concepts from theories of social change and futures research (discussed in Chapter 2).

So, what is the value of such research? With planned levels of infrastructure spending in developing countries remaining high, research in this area is essential if marginalised people are to fully benefit from such developments in both the short and long-term. With a global focus on mitigating climate change, there is a risk that renewable energy projects5_{will once again become driven by a utilitarian philosophy}

and marginalised people will be the casualties of such projects. In assessing the feasibility of large infrastructure projects, it is accepted that planners need to have a vision of the future. However, something that is seldom considered is that those in nearby communities also need to anticipate the future to help ensure that they have strategies to manage the disruptions they will experience. Where the visions of development can be aligned then not only may short-term benefits be seen but options for longer-term change within and across communities can be assessed. Spending time to foster such relationships can reduce the likelihood of later conflicts and, thereby, benefit both the project objectives and those of the community.

1.3 Organisation of the Thesis

This chapter has provided the context to justify the focus and explain the value of the research. The theoretical and conceptual framework is explained in Chapter 2. Here I integrate ideas from theories of social change and futures research to construct a

4_{My use of the term planner is broad and includes the State as ‘planner and enabler of development}

choices’ (WCD, 2000, p. 209)

5_{Disagreement exists whether hydropower should be considered as renewable energy. In this thesis, it}

is considered to be a technology that is being considered to tackle climate change and, as such, is classified as renewable energy.

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conceptual framework which has been used to help analyse the trajectories of change within the community. Chapter 3 describes the research methodology including the mixed methods research design and limitations of the study. I will also reflect on my own positionality and some ethical issues faced.

The subsequent three chapters analyse the empirical data collected over the five months of fieldwork. Chapter 4 examines the period prior to the Masinga dam construction by drawing on archive material and interviews with older members of the community. Chapter 5 is the main empirical chapter and examines the trajectories of change within Katothya since the reservoir was flooded and how people envisage their own future and that of the community. By bringing in the results of a participatory foresight exercise held in the community, Chapter 6 examines the future thinking of the community in more detail and how stakeholders can move towards implementing development opportunities that are both inclusive and sustainable. Finally, Chapter 7 offers some conclusions.

While I am hopeful that this thesis contributes to the academic debate surrounding the impact of major infrastructure projects, my aspiration is that the research will also be of value to the decision makers for such projects. Therefore, as well as endeavouring to fulfil the academic requirements for a master’s thesis, I have attempted to make the document accessible to those outside of academia6_{. In doing}

so, I have used a number of diagrams to help explain key concepts and these may also help those who prefer a visual style of communication. There are also a number of blue boxes which I have used to highlight key information such as the research questions and some of the lengthier quotes from documents or interviews. Most of these boxes are found in the empirical chapters and those entitled ‘Words from Katothya’ contain more extensive quotes from participant interviews. In attempting to capture the heterogeneity of encounters of the people of Katothya, I have taken a so called history from below approach where it is important to consider ‘the past through the experiences and perspectives of the downcast, the marginal, and the exploited’ (Burton and Ballantyne, 2016, p. 3). I believe these longer quotes do that by richly illustrating many of the important points made in the main text without interrupting the flow of the writing. I have tried to write in a clear and straightforward manner. With a background outside of the social sciences, this has been through necessity as well as choice – something I will reflect on in Chapter 3 of the thesis.

6_{Though not part of the thesis submission, a video documenting some of the experiences of people in}

Katothya has been produced. A link is provided below:

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2. Theoretical and Conceptual Framework

In this thesis, I take the position that societal change is normal and will often result in conflict by creating winners and losers. Development interventions are also about change, but these are planned changes which are sometimes transformative, often rapid and usually involve some form of (wanted or unwanted) material resource, process or right. The Masinga Dam was such an intervention and had the potential to stimulate further and substantial development activity. This did not happen in Katothya – further development activity has been intermittent and associated with conflict. Although everyone benefited from water being ‘brought near’, access was not equitable, and this influenced development trajectories across the community. Understanding how such conditions have impacted people’s visions of development requires an examination of the past and a consideration of the future, and it is the more complete integration of concepts originating from social change, conflict and futures research that comprise the theoretical contribution of this thesis.

Past academic debates have considered whether the definition of conflict should be narrow (i.e. where there are overt struggles) or broad (i.e. where underlying rivalries and resentments are included) (Fink, 1968). In this thesis, social conflict will be considered in its broader sense – in Katothya, there are examples of violent struggles over resources but also expressions of resentment between people and between groups. This is in line with Dahrendorf’s work on social change and conflict and forms the main theoretical basis for this study. His early theory, described in Class and Class Conflict in Industrial Society (Dahrendorf, 1959), had some limitations. It did not consider the ‘substance of conflict or the direction of change’ (Dahrendorf, 1979, p. 61). In considering the ‘motives of social change’, he states that ‘power is the key category for the analysis of both social structures and social processes’ (ibid., p. 48) and in seeking to ‘tie power relations to other more ‘objective’ conditions’ (ibid., p. 48) he introduced the concept of life chances. He states: ‘Life chances are (in principle) measurable possibilities to realize needs, wants and interests in, or at times against, a given social context’ and they are also ‘the motive force of social processes’ (ibid., p. 53). I will now examine the relevance of the concept of life chances to the situation under study in this thesis.

Dahrendorf (1979, p. 11) concisely describes life chances as ‘the moulds of human life in society; their shape determines how and how far people can unfold’. This takes greater account of social structures than the more agency-focussed life opportunity theories such as the livelihood approach (Chambers and Conway, 1991) and the capability approach (Sen, 1999). Further, Wright (1980) concludes that Dahrendorf ‘successfully bridges the schism between micro and macro social theory’ – an important consideration for this thesis with its focus on the social relationships between individuals, groups and organisations. Although Dahrendorf’s early work was directed towards industrial society, the concept of life chances considers the influence of social bonds – an important element in traditional societies. It is this that makes his work suited to the situation encountered in Katothya – a traditional rural community in the process of transitioning to a modern society.

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To understand societal transitions, the intertwining of the past, present and future needs to be considered. However, Dahrendorf’s work on life chances is less than satisfactory with respect to consideration of the future. He suggests that hope is a force for change and states it is the ‘spark which is needed to turn a revolutionary situation into a revolution’ and which also ‘operates in social change of a gradual character’ (Dahrendorf, 1979, p. 135). However, Sztompka (1999, p. 24) considers hope to be ‘a passive, vague, not rationally justified feeling that things will turn out for the good’. The concept of hope was used during participant interviews and although it was not always a passive feeling, a participant’s confidence in achieving their future hopes was seldom rationally justified. Therefore, Dahrendorf’s work needs to be supplemented by another theoretical framework.

A theory of social change that is based on images of the future was described by Bell and Mau (1971). They present a complex cybernetic-decisional model of social change where they propose that the interaction of beliefs, values and social structure produce images of the future which orient human behaviours and promote actions to bring about societal development. Their theory of social change is directed at what they term advanced societies where ‘the mastery of man over his natural and social environment’ is emphasised (ibid., p. 10). Their model does include elements that influence social cohesion (i.e. beliefs and values). However, they focus on behaviours where ‘both the ends and means of life have been increasingly freed for conscious choice’ (ibid., p. 11) and where ‘man is deliberately bent on making himself according to his own choosing’ (ibid., p. 13). Although this does not reflect the situation in Katothya, the work has elements that have been useful in constructing the conceptual scheme used here.

As the name suggests, images of the future are simply mental pictures of the time ahead and Bell and Mau (1971) consider these are required to make decisions and act. However, this does not distinguish between actors whose images of the future are simply vague hopes and those who use those images to proactively manage change. Therefore, in this thesis, the broader concept sense of future is introduced. This considers that the depth and breadth of appreciation of the future can influence how change or conflict are tackled by actors or, indeed, are driven by them. Although there are externally driven changes where most individuals are simply passengers, many other changes involve some consideration of future impacts. Some actors will try to visualise the potential opportunities that change may offer and envisage ways to exploit those opportunities. Others may believe they will be harmed by such change and take steps to oppose it. However, to drive effective change requires more than being reactive, it requires ‘the proactive creation of an image that goes beyond any anticipation … an assertion in the present of the way things might be caused to unfold’ (Hodgson, 2011, Ch. 1, location 224). It is this combination of visioning with the mapping of how such a vision may be achieved that characterises an actor with a strong sense of future.

The following sections elaborate further on these concepts. It then goes on to discuss two other underlying factors – power relations and trust which play an important role in understanding relationships within the community.

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2.1 Life Chances

Dahrendorf (1979) considers life chances to comprise two elements: options and ligatures. The former are ‘possibilities of choice … given in social structure’ and the latter are ‘allegiances … bonds or linkages’ that are impacted by ‘social positions and roles’ (ibid., p.30). He goes on: ‘the element of ligatures signifies meaning, the anchoring of persons and their actions, whereas options emphasize the objective and horizon of action. Ligatures create bonds and thus the foundations of action; options require choices and are thus open for the future’ (ibid., p. 31). He suggests that pre-modern societies were dominated by the social bonds of status with pre-modernisation extending choice and that, with increasing mobility, ‘the family or the village are no longer communities of fate, but increasingly become communities of choice’ (ibid., p. 31). However, he also emphasises that social bonds are required to increase life chances and their complete removal would destroy the foundation on which choices and decisions are made – that is, they can be ‘railings to which people can cling as they walk into the mist of their social lives, just as they can be barriers too which they encounter in this mist’ (ibid., p. 32). With the Masinga dam being part of the modernising agenda of the post-colonial Kenyan government, has Katothya become a community of choice? Is there an effective balance between social bonds and options which increases the life chances of those in the community? These questions will be addressed in the later chapters of this thesis.

With focus on the west, Dahrendorf (1979, p. 13) states: ‘societies gain their quality by their ability to offer more people more life chances’. However, when applied in a context involving indigenous people, the statement could be challenged ‘in terms of denouncing the irrationality of development and the incompatibility of development projects with indigenous worldviews’ (Escobar, 2012, p. x). Corson (1997, p. 140) illustrates this by reference to communities in Papua New Guinea: ‘the ligatures that bond these people to one another, and to their cultures, were traded for options that have destroyed communal values built up over 40,000 years of history’. He suggests: ‘ligatures provide some of the most important benefits in life, namely support, structure, and motivation, and a sense of respect and continuity’ (ibid., p. 141). Despite the issues raised by Escobar (2012), I would suggest that the concept of life chances is applicable to the situation in Katothya. The community has not experienced the continuity of other indigenous societies. Most people arrived in the area within the last 100 years - they came to avoid colonialists elsewhere in the country or in search of water during droughts. Further, there was a significant change in the 1950’s when the community made a rapid transition from livestock keeping to arable faming. Regarding the irrationality of development mentioned by Escobar (2012), almost all in Katothya have welcomed the water which accompanied the construction of the dam, and most would value further development in their community. However, there is one significant caveat to Dahrendorf’s statement. To be an appropriate measure of development, is it enough to say that the goal is to offer more people more life chances? Doesn’t this need to be accompanied by an aim to tackle inequality? Where some groups gain significantly more than others, the benefits experienced by the latter can soon be forgotten in the shift from absolute to relative deprivation and lead

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to resentment or conflict. To use the terminology of Dahrendorf (1979), if some moulds are large and allow room for growth while others are small and restricting then inclusive development will be hampered.

Dahrendorf (1979) discusses inequality and considers life chances to be about equality of opportunity rather than equality of status. He states that citizenship rights can be the common floor that provide equal opportunities for everyone. Although he insists that someone’s life chances should not be restricted arbitrarily, he does suggest there should be a ceiling to prevent excessive inequality. In Katothya, opportunities are not equal for everyone and it is difficult to see a ceiling restricting inequality. In later chapters, I will explore whether such a social fabric can help explain the way in which the community has responded to the potential the Masinga dam offered.

Dahrendorf (1979, p. 140) justifies his stance on inequality by stating that progress ‘requires hope, realistic hope in the possibility of improvement’ and this will be considered in developing the second key concept used in this research.

2.2 Sense of Future

Slaughter (1995, p. xvii) suggests that the key quality of successful futures work is that it ‘enhances our ability to understand and then act with awareness’. In a similar vein to the work of Hodgson (2012), action is emphasised. Slaughter (1995, p. xvii) goes on to describe four characteristics of foresight that help extend human perception:  ‘assessing possible consequences of actions, decisions, etc.’.

 ‘anticipating problems before they occur’.

 ‘considering the present implications of future events’.  ‘envisioning desired aspects of future societies’.

Although Slaughter’s book is oriented towards tacking western problems, these characteristics apply equally well in a rural African context. Individuals could be said to possess a strong sense of future where they demonstrate a desire for informed change, think through potential ramifications of their own actions and consider the influence of possible external events.

Figure 2.1 provides a visualisation of different future classes often referred to in futures research. The increasing area of the conic sections as one moves forward and away from the present signifies the increased uncertainty and possibilities associated with the future. Of all possible scenarios, there may be futures that are considered more probable and those that are considered preferred. Although Voros (2003, p. 16) brought his ‘futures cone’ to an apex at the present, the visualisation below shows a finite conic area at this time and denotes that we do not know everything about the present. An additional cone is used to represent the increased uncertainty as one moves further into the past. Also shown projected on to the present are past futures – that is, what was (in the past) anticipated to happen today. Whether such past futures are close to (or distant from) what has happened in the present could influence whether an individual or group believes they have agency to influence their future. For example, if promises associated with the Masinga dam were not delivered then this could impact how the community saw its future.

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Figure 2.1: Visualisation of futures (after Voros, 2003).

Such a visualisation can also be used to represent the concept sense of future (Fig. 2.2). Someone with a weak sense of future may take few initiatives to change their situation and their future will be decided by someone else (i.e. ‘An Other’s Future’). On the contrary, an individual possessing a strong sense of future is likely to take ownership, manage uncertainties and attempt to drive change towards their preferred future (i.e. ‘An Owned Future’). Also represented on Figure 2.2 is someone with an unrealistic sense of future – they are prepared to drive change but without considering uncertainties and this makes them more vulnerable to failure.

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Both of the above concepts consider relationships to other actors – this may be through the social bonds that form part of life chances or by considering the impact of others when contemplating future opportunities. Given the importance of interpersonal and intergroup relationships, power relations and trust play a key role, and these will be considered before going on to discuss the conceptual scheme. 2.3 Power Relations

Dahrendorf (1959, p. 166) states authority is ‘a legitimate relation of domination and subjection’ which can be described as ‘legitimate power’ and considers that ‘authority is always associated with social positions or roles’. Traditional relations of power and colonial power structures are examples of the maintenance of order through authority. However, such top-down forms of power relations have diminished in Katothya and legitimate power is too narrow a concept to be useful in this research. Examining power in a broader sense, Foucault (1978) suggests that sovereign (top-down) power has been replaced by more modern forms – disciplinary power and biopower. Compared to sovereign power, modern power relations are more diffusely exercised through institutions and the state. Rather than taking something away (what Foucault refers to as deduction), modern power is ‘working to incite, reinforce, control, monitor, optimize, and organize the forces under it: a power bent on generating forces, making them grow, and ordering them, rather than one dedicated to impeding them, making them submit, or destroying them’ (Foucault, 1978, p. 136). He assigns the success of disciplinary power to the ‘use of simple instruments; hierarchical observation, normalising judgement and … the examination’ (Foucault, 1991, p. 170). Although there is some overlap with disciplinary power, biopower tends to be exercised over groups of people and the wider population (rather than the individual), and primarily through the state apparatus (rather than institutions)7_.

Katothya is a society in transition from traditional forms of power relations to more modern forms. This transition will be considered in later chapters to help shed light on how development is currently understood by different actors.

Foucault introduces the concept of force relations to illustrate how power comes from below. He describes them as ‘unbalanced, heterogeneous, unstable and tense’ forces (Foucault, 1978, p. 93) which can attract each other to form a support network or act as repelling forces to isolate. Foucault states, ‘it is the moving substrate of force relations which, by virtue of their inequality, constantly engender states of power, but the latter are always local and unstable’ (Foucault, 1978, p. 93). This model will be used alongside the conceptual scheme to describe interactions between individuals and groups.

Although power always plays a large role in social processes, Foucault states that it does not have the ‘privilege of consolidating everything’ (ibid., p. 93). In this study another important factor is trust and this will now be discussed.

7_{‘With regard to discipline, this development was embodied in institutions such as the army and the}

schools … As for population controls, one notes the emergence of demography, the evaluation of the relationship between resources and inhabitants, the constructing of tables analyzing wealth and its circulation …’ (Foucault, 1978, p. 140).

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2.4 Trust

Luhmann (1979, p. 10) wrote: ‘To show trust is to anticipate the future’ and in this thesis, trust is an important variable that allows integration of the concepts already discussed. The psychological literature regards trust as a personal quality. However, in this research, it is considered an attribute of relationships involving people and, in particular, the act of cooperation. This may range from the direct interaction between two individuals or groups to the relationship between people and an organisation. Sztompka (1999) identifies three types of conduct that can be expected of actors. Instrumental expectations include qualities such as regularity, reasonableness, efficiency. Secondly, moral expectations include integrity, authenticity, fairness. Lastly, fiduciary expectations include acting on behalf of others, benevolence, generosity. It is insufficient to consider only conduct that provide a foundation for trust. A culture of cooperation requires both the encouragement of trustworthiness and the condemnation of breaches of trust. Of course, there will be situations where distrust is more appropriate than trust. However, if a goal is to build and sustain cooperative relationships in the community, it will be necessary to prevent such situations from becoming entrenched and raising suspicions regarding valuable collaborative opportunities. Indeed, Luhmann (1979, p. 99) states that ‘trust is easier to transform into distrust than is distrust into trust’. Where there is a culture of distrust, Sztompka (1999) mentions a number of substitute arrangements that increase the feeling of certainty and order. Three key reactions are: providentialism where God may be called upon as an anchor; corruption to provide ‘some misleading sense of orderliness and predictability’ (ibid., p. 116); paternalization where a leader would restore order, if necessary, using force. Five macro-societal factors encourage and sustain cultures of trust (Sztompka, 1999): normative coherence to provide order and predictability in social life; stability of social order where traditions provide the foundations of social cohesion and change is gradual; transparency of the social organisation through the accessibility of information; familiarity of the environment; accountability of others.

Sztompka (1999, p. 25) links the need for trust to future (humanly created) uncertainty and, as such, falls ‘within the discourse of agency: actively anticipating and facing an unknown future’. He considers trust to have two key components: believing in the future actions of others and committing ourselves to action despite facing uncertainty in that future. He states: ‘As our dependence on the cooperation of others grows, so does the importance of trust in their reliability’ (ibid., p. 12). Where placing trust in someone always requires taking some risk and ‘belongs to the discourse of agency’, ‘dangers are passively awaited and … belong to the discourse of fate’ (ibid., p. 30). In the rural community studied here, the focus for this research will be trust in inter-actor relations as people go about their daily lives and in considering their future. Sztompka (1999, p. 62) states: ‘Trust is the precondition for cooperation, and also the product of successful cooperation’. Situating trust in this context is seen as a key factor in understanding how actors have reacted to potential opportunities for development brought by the Masinga reservoir. I will make no attempt to examine the trustworthiness or trusting nature of individuals. The focus here is on how historical

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changes to the social landscape have influenced norms regarding trust in Katothya and how these may be influencing visions of development.

2.5 Conceptual Scheme

To help in the analysis of the empirical data, the main theories and concepts discussed above have been incorporated into a conceptual scheme. Before describing the scheme, concise definitions of the two main concepts and their associated dimensions, as used in this research, are given.

This definition of life chances considers a moment in time and is very passive – it considers opportunities, bonds, and how change is experienced but there is no action by the individual. It is assumed that any act must involve some degree of consideration of the future and this is where the link is established to the second key concept.

Figure 2.3 shows the basis of the conceptual scheme. Rooted in the social landscape are the social attachments or bonds that strengthen the relationship between the individual and the community. From this foundation, options (or opportunities) are available. Together, social attachments and options form the concept life chances. However, to take considered action, an individual should look forward. Someone with

Life Chances

The options and bonds that people have within a changing societal landscape.

Dimensions

Individual Options: The range of opportunities that someone has within the structure of the societal landscape.

Social Bonds: The nature of the attachments between an individual and the community.

Encounters with Change: Changes to the societal landscape that someone experiences.

Sense of Future

The capacity of people to develop views of future possibilities, to take informed decisions and to manage change.

Dimensions

Imagining Possibilities: To proactively create images of how the future could evolve and the opportunities these could create or the threats they could present.

Taking Informed Decisions: To prepare for action by analysing past experiences, considering future uncertainties and making choices. Managing Change: To take action that will drive a desired change or react to

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a strong sense of future will create images of how the future could evolve and consider how their goals could be achieved before deciding on a route to achieve them. This could vary from driving a significant change in their life (and perhaps the lives of others) to resisting a change that is threatening their own life chances. Together, imagining possibilities, taking informed decisions and managing change comprise the concept sense of future.

Figure 2.3: Conceptual scheme incorporating life chances and sense of future (individual level).

As a critical realist, I acknowledge that the social landscape illustrated in the conceptual scheme is not reality – the true landscape lies hidden beneath the various landscapes perceived by people. Therefore, the choices people make, and decisions taken are based on assumptions which are not always correct. Consequently, the actual changes experienced by someone may be somewhat different to those expected.

Figure 2.3 also shows that change can come from an external source. This could be a natural event such as a drought or a countrywide experience such as inflation. The construction of the Masinga dam is an example of an external change that impacted the social landscape as well as the life chances and sense of future of those who inhabited it. Of course, there are too many changes for any individual to take full account of in their daily life. However, someone with a strong sense of future will try to capture the most significant in deciding their short-term and long-term strategies for action.

So far, we have only considered one individual but there are always interactions with others. Figure 2.4 visualises the force relations between two individuals and Figure 2.5 those within and between groups. Foucault (1978, p. 93) explains that ‘the manifold relationships of force that take shape and come into play in the machinery of production, in families, limited groups, and institutions, are the basis of wide-ranging

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effects of cleavage that run through the social body as a whole.’ Therefore, the individual forms the unit of analysis used in this study and scrutiny at this level will be used to build a picture of the impact of change on social relations at the community level.

Figure 2.4: Force relations between two individuals8_.

Figure 2.5: Force relations within and between groups.

Where people interact, trust is an important factor in governing life chances and sense of future. Dahrendorf (1979) suggests there should be a ceiling to constrain inequality. However, this does nothing to tackle the root cause of the problem. An alternative is to build a high trust environment where people are more comfortable to focus on community development. In this way, the floor can be raised for everyone, inequality can be managed, and a virtuous cycle of collaboration and trust building began. Figure 2.6 shows the impact of increasing levels of trust and cooperation on two groups – those who struggle to meet their basic needs and others who do so more comfortably. In a low trust environment, the focus is on individual growth and those

8_{The double arrows in Figure 2.4 and Figure 2.5 indicate that force relations can attract (i.e. strengthen}

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with more than enough resources to meet their basic needs will be able to grasp more opportunities such that inequality increases with time (Fig. 2.6a). With increasing trust and a focus on community (rather than individual) development, everyone has the potential to move beyond meeting their basic needs (Fig. 2.6b). Further, where there is a desire for development to target the most marginalised, deceasing levels of inequality would be seen (Fig. 2.6c).

Figure 2.6: Impact of increasing levels of trust on equality of opportunity. 2.6 Research Questions

The research gaps I would like to address in this thesis are the longer-term impact of a major infrastructure project, the heterogeneity of encounters with that project and the visions of people regarding further development opportunities. This has resulted in the formulation of the following main research question and four sub-questions9_.

9_{To help construct the research question, I considered issues of who, where, what and why:}

Who: A diverse range of people living within a single community.

Where: A rural area with scarce resources and impacted by the construction of a major infrastructure project a few decades ago.

What: The trajectories of change and heterogeneities of encounters that people have experienced and how this has impacted their past and present visions of development.

Why: To understand how the diversity of stakeholders involved in or impacted by major infrastructure schemes can look beyond the project to stimulate inclusive and sustainable development opportunities.

MEETING

BASIC NEEDS BASIC NEEDSBEYOND

O pp or tu ni tie s W ith in R ea ch MEETING

O pp or tu ni tie s W ith in R ea ch BEYOND

O pp or tu ni tie s W ith in R ea ch

Time

In

cr

ea

si

ng

T

ru

st

a

nd

C

oo

pe

ra

tio

n

Increasing Inequality Decreasing Inequality Poorest struggle to

meet basic needs

Poorest move beyond meeting basic needs

a)

b)

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The questions reflect that social change is a continuous process and that the changes experienced by the community as a result of the construction of the Masinga dam were altering a landscape formed by earlier social changes.

2.7 Operationalisation

The operationalisation of the concepts of life chances and sense of future (and their associated dimensions) are shown in Tables 2.1 and 2.2. The variable and indicators are observable or measurable characteristics of the concepts. While some of these were the focus of structured interviews, others were considered during participant observations, interviews and discussions.

Sub-Questions

SQ1 What was the social context in the community of Katothya prior to construction of the Masinga dam?

SQ2 In what ways did inundation of the Masinga reservoir transform the social environment and life chances for the diverse groups of people in Katothya?

SQ3 How has the heterogeneity of people’s experiences influenced their sense of future and perceptions of further development within and beyond Katothya?

SQ4 How can stakeholders work together to look beyond infrastructure projects and stimulate development opportunities that are both inclusive and sustainable?

Main Research Question

Since the construction of the Masinga dam and inundation of the reservoir, how have the trajectories of change experienced by the people in the nearby community of Katothya shaped their visions of development?

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Table 2.1: Operationalisation of the concept life chances.

Table 2.2: Operationalisation of the concept sense of future.

While most of the descriptors in the tables are self-explanatory, I would like to comment on a few.

Taking informed decisions requires an appreciation of what has happened in the past (looking back), what is happening currently (looking around) and what may happen in the future (looking forward). As well as having a temporal character, the indicator

Concepts Dimensions Variables Indicators Socio-cultural Socio-economic Socio-environmental Economic Knowledge Spiritual Patriarchy Sense of community Religion Role Age Gender Internal External Combination Household Community Regional National Life Chances Individual Options Societal Landscape Access to Resources Social Bonds Foundations Social Position Encounters with Change Direction Scale

Concepts Dimensions Variables Indicators Basic needs Individual growth Community development Impact Time scale Hopes Fears Looking back Looking around Looking forward Integration Alignment Collaboration Planning Passive Exploiting opportunities Actively opposing Driving change Between persons Between spatially segregated groups Between spatially intermingled groups Between a group and an organisation Characteristics of Conflict Sense of Future Imagining Possibilities Focus Scope Perceptions Taking Informed Decisions Foresight Route Map Managing Change Reactions to Change

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‘looking around’ incorporates a spatial element and incorporates what is happening elsewhere (i.e. considering the full diversity of external influences).

By ‘route map’, I mean a consideration of the best way to achieve something. That is, it is necessary to consider how a proposed course of action fits into the bigger picture (i.e. whether it is integrated), how other actors may see it (i.e. whether they are aligned and will collaborate) and the robustness of any plans for action.

Fink (1968) reviews the classifications of social conflicts from various authors10_{. The}

classification that aligns best with the situation encountered in Katothya is that of Boulding (1962) where the nature of the actors involved in the social conflicts are distinguished. He identifies four types of actor: persons, spatially segregated groups, spatially intermingled groups and organisations. In the conflicts encountered in Katothya, all four classes of actor are involved.

10_{Although he describes Dahrendorf’s classification, this is geared to industrial societies and is not used}

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3. Methodology

How the past, present and future intertwine has not only been a focus of this study, my own experiences and aims had a bearing on how I approached the research. During my employment in the private sector11_{, I saw the advantage of being part of integrated}

teams using multiple methods to tackle complex problems but also experienced the constraints of working on projects with fixed scopes and tight deadlines to address those same problems. Therefore, on planning my research, I expected that a mixed methods design would be advantageous and wished to make full use of my time in the field. In contrast to my employment, where I worked in multidisciplinary teams, this was an independent piece of research and I felt exposed regarding my limited breadth and depth of knowledge in the social sciences. So, my multidisciplinary team became my Kindle – heavily laden down with the books I wished I was more familiar with. I hoped this would help me in addressing the research questions.

3.1 Ontological and Epistemological Position

A critical realist perspective was taken during the research. A summary of my own position is: ‘Critical realists … retain an ontological realism (there is a real world that exists independently of our perceptions, theories and constructions) while accepting a form of epistemological constructivism and relativism (our understanding of this world is inevitably a construction from our own perspectives and standpoint)’ (Maxwell, 2012, p. 5). Further, social change is ‘likely to be affected by dispositions which were ‘sedimented’ at some earlier stage often in different places’ (Sayer, 2000, p. 16). Therefore, I acknowledge that the real world is dynamic and not accessible to us and people’s perception of the future is influenced by meanings given to previous or current interactions with living beings, physical objects and situations. This has focussed my research on the experiences and perspectives of actors within the situation under study while recognising the influence of external actors and events. With a technical background, I tend to look for patterns in data, to classify and then to predict. However, I recognised that social reality would be more complex and less familiar than the environment I was used to and that I should avoid drawing conclusions before I understood the heterogeneity of a situation. On that basis, I embarked on my research with the objective of conducting situational analysis as described by Clarke et al. (2018). Although I had difficulty applying the suggested data mapping approaches, it was useful to keep its overall aims in mind. It is a method which ’intentionally elucidates the complexities of the situation’; ‘encourages the analyst to elucidate marginalised perspectives’; goes ‘beyond “the knowing subject” … to analyse salient discourses’; pays attention to ‘objects in situations … all the nonhuman, animate and inanimate things’; and takes ‘individual and collective difference(s) into account in social life’ (ibid., p.14).

Mixed Methods Research Design and Data Integration

With a disposition to manage uncertainty, I am attracted to the application of different research methods to help draw integrated conclusions. Mixed methods research is

11_{Academically, I have a geoscience and engineering background. I then worked in the private sector}

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also aligned with my worldview – it ‘tends to treat knowledge as partial (no one can know the ‘whole truth’) and situated (knowledge depends on our situations and positions)’ (Cope and Elwood, 2009, p. 5).

Qualitative, quantitative and spatial data were gathered concurrently during the field research12_{(Figure 3.1) and the process most closely followed a convergent, parallel}

mixed methods design (Creswell and Plano Clark, 2011). However, rather than data types being isolated from each other during the data collection and analysis phases, ongoing integration allowed the line of questioning to be adapted during (or subsequent to) interviews.

Gans (1991, p. xi) describes ethnography as ‘being with and talking to people, especially those whose activities are not newsworthy, asking them thoughtful and empathic questions, and analysing the resulting data without the need to prove prior ideological points’. I followed this approach with one caveat. I also challenged participants, and this helped get beneath the surface of the situation under study. Participant interviewing was appropriate for my unit of analysis – the individual. As I was privileging the views of the marginalised, interviews gave rich data on the heterogeneity of experiences across the community. I acknowledge that records of participant responses are not their own words – translation was involved. Further, even where English was spoken, a participant’s depiction may not reflect their narrative using the Kikamba language. I was also conscious that my observations would differ from those of community members – what I may find noteworthy would be guided by my cultural background. Therefore, despite some limitations, participant interviewing was the main ethnographic approach used. Each session comprised a questionnaire followed by a semi-structured interview13_{. As I intended to make a short}

film, I also conducted a few video interviews.

A transect walk was conducted early in the research and was useful to characterise the physical and social landscape – the latter being an important part of my conceptual scheme. Information gathered included cultural, economic and environmental aspects of life in Katothya (Appendix A). Specifically, it gave an appreciation of differences in land use and farming practices, previous development interventions and the availability of services. There were also opportunities for informal discussions.

Eight group discussions were held at various stages of the research14_{. Useful data were}

gathered and, from feedback received, the fora were also positive experiences for participants.

12_{Spatial data collection was limited and was not used to answer the research question addressed here.} 13_{The survey helped put participants at ease before tackling more challenging questions. I often used}

closed questions to establish a participant’s position on an issue before asking them to elaborate. Participants were also given the opportunity to ask questions and this often gave useful insights.

14_{Early group discussions highlighted key issues and resulted in the research focus moving away from}

energy. After spending 2 months with the community, a participatory foresight exercise was held (discussed in Chapter 6). A small group discussion was also held to clarify discrepancies in the compensation process associated with the dam. Two focus group meetings were held on the topic of water, the conflicts that had arisen and how the situation could be improved.

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Figure 3.1: Research workflow.

The target population were adults living in Katothya and 60 individual interviews were held15_{. The number of participants was influenced by the qualitative aspects of the}

15_{A census is conducted by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics every 10 years. Data are aggregated}

at the sub-location level. In 2009, Katulye sub-location (incorporating Katothya) – population: 4906 (2323 male, 2583 female); households: 989; population density: 82 people per km2_{. In 1999, the}

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research. Convenience sampling was used16_{. By interviewing a relatively large number}

of participants, I aimed to capture the ‘complexities of the situation’17_{(Clarke et al.,}

2018, p. 14). During the periods I spent away from Katothya, I also held a few interviews with external actors18_{. A full list of participants is given in Appendix B.}

Kenya National Archives was a useful source of information to put my research in context and better understand some of the legacy issues faced by the actors.

Of the 60 people interviewed individually, survey responses of 57 participants were suitable for analysis. A summary of the questionnaire is shown in Appendix C and sample characteristics in Figure 3.219_{. The sample is unlikely to reflect the}

demographics of the community – younger people (especially males) were more reluctant to participate.

Figure 3.2: Sample characteristics – gender and age distribution.

My field notebook comprised a description of each day’s activities and the observations made. I also found it useful to keep a separate diary to capture my reflections each evening. It was my way of writing short and informal analytical memos. Transcribing interviews in the evening was also useful to identify themes. After transcribing, I noted my first impressions of the interviewee and the location (usually their home), recorded key points and issues that required follow-up. However, this was very time consuming and I fell behind20_.

An interim report was requested and was an extremely useful exercise to consolidate my thoughts mid-way through the research. As I had tried to be open to new avenues of investigation, the report helped confirm the most promising areas to address during

16_{My aim was to interview both male and female participants of varying ages and to include a range of}

livelihoods. These variables were monitored as the research proceeded.

17_{My interview plan was adjusted depending on the participant (e.g. only older participants were asked}

about life before the dam) and the stage of the research (e.g. some themes reached saturation early in the research while others became apparent later or took longer to address).

18_{Four formal interviews and one informal discussion were held with employees of the parastatal}

organisations, a university and an NGO. An interview was requested with a politician in the Machakos devolved county assembly, but no response was received.

19_{The lower age limit of potential participants was 18. There was no upper age limit but some of the}

oldest members of the community were thought to be too frail to act as participants.

20_{When I returned from the field in January, I had transcribed 31 of the 60 individual interviews I}

conducted. 0 5 10 15 20 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 Age of Participants Average Age: 47