• No results found

A pilot study on the pharmacokinetics of potato glycoalkaloids in healthy volunteers | RIVM

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "A pilot study on the pharmacokinetics of potato glycoalkaloids in healthy volunteers | RIVM"

Copied!
77
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)

UHVHDUFKIRU PDQDQGHQYLURQPHQW 5,-.6,167,7887922592/.6*(=21'+(,'(10,/,(8 1$7,21$/,167,787(2)38%/,&+($/7+$1'7+((19,5210(17 5,90UHSRUW $SLORWVWXG\RQWKHSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRI SRWDWRJO\FRDONDORLGVLQKHDOWK\YROXQWHHUV &-05RPSHOEHUJ$-$06LSV.YDQ7ZLOOHUW 7M0HQVLQJD+-YDQGHQ7RS-0HXOHQEHOW +3YDQ(JPRQG $XJXVW 7KLVLQYHVWLJDWLRQKDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGE\RUGHUDQGIRUWKHDFFRXQWRIWKH,QVSHFWRUDWHIRU +HDOWK3URWHFWLRQDQG9HWHULQDU\3XEOLF+HDOWKZLWKLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRISURMHFW µ1DWXUDO7R[LQV¶ 5,9032%R[%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHSKRQHWHOHID[

(2)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

$EVWUDFW

7RLPSURYHULVNDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHSRWDWRJO\FRDONDORLGV *$V aVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHD VWXG\RQSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRIRUDOO\DGPLQLVWHUHG*$VLQKXPDQVLVSODQQHGWREHFDUULHGRXWDW WKH1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI3XEOLF+HDOWKDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW 5,90 7KHOLPLWHGLQIRUPDWLRQ RQWR[LFLW\LQUHODWLRQWR*$GRVHLQKXPDQVXUJHGWKHQHHGWRILUVWSHUIRUPDGRVHILQGLQJVWXG\ SLORW VWXG\  WR ILQG DQ RSWLPDO EORRG VDPSOLQJ VFKHPH DQG DQ RSWLPDO *$ GRVH IRU D VXEVHTXHQWVWXG\RQSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRI*$V

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

(3)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV

7KHDXWKRUVWKDQN0U0+DP]LQN,QJWKHODWH0U5.ODDVVHQDQGWKH&HQWUDO3KDUPDF\ RI WKH 8WUHFKW 8QLYHUVLW\ +RVSLWDO IRU WKHLU FRQWULEXWLRQV LQ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI WKH SLORW VWXG\

(4)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

&RQWHQWV

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ò  $8&Š   )UHORIPDVKHGSRWDWRHVYHUVXVWHVWVROXWLRQ   $'9(56(72;,&())(&76  $GYHUVHWR[LFHIIHFWVDIWHUDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIPDVKHGSRWDWRHV   $GYHUVHWR[LFHIIHFWVDIWHUDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIWHVWVROXWLRQ  ',6&866,21  237,0$/%/22'6$03/,1*6&+(0( 237,0$/*$'26(  $'',7,21$/&216,'(5$7,216  &21&/86,216

(5)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI 5()(5(1&(6 $33(1',;&20326,7,21$1'35(3$5$7,212)0$6+('327$72(6 $33(1',; 6&+(0$7,&29(59,(:2)7+($1$/<6,62)a62/$1,1($1' a&+$&21,1(,1+80$16(580  $33(1',; (;$03/(2)+3/&&+520$72*5$02)a62/$1,1($1'a&+$&21,1( ,1&/8',1*$*+2673($.  $33(1',;0$,/,1*/,67 $33(1',;&/,1,&$/5(3257

(6)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

6DPHQYDWWLQJ

$DUGDSSHOHQEHYDWWHQGHJO\FRDONDORwGHQ *$V aVRODQLQHDQGa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w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aVRODQLQH HQ aFKDFRQLQH ZDDUPHHGHIDUPDFRNLQHWLVFKHSDUDPHWHUVJRHGEHUHNHQGNXQQHQZRUGHQ'H*$GRVHULQJLV JHVFKLNWDOVGH]HHQHU]LMGVPHHWEDUH*$FRQFHQWUDWLHVLQKHWVHUXPRSOHYHUWHQDQGHU]LMGVJHHQ WR[LVFKHHIIHFWHQYHURRU]DDNW,QGLWUDSSRUWZRUGHQGH RS]HW HQ YHUNUHJHQ UHVXOWDWHQ YDQGH YRRUVWXGLHEHVFKUHYHQ

,QGHYRRUVWXGLHNUHJHQSURHISHUVRQHQppQ*$GRVHULQJLQGHYRUPYDQHHQGUDQNMHWRHJHGLHQG WRHJHGLHQGH*$GRVHULQJHQRUPJNJOLFKDDPVJHZLFKW*$EHVWRQGXLW  VRODQLQHDQG FKDFRQLQH RI]HNUHJHQppQSRUWLHDDUGDSSHOSXUHHWHHWHQGLHHHQ EHNHQGH KRHYHHOKHLG VRODQLQH HQ FKDFRQLQH EHYDWWH WRHJHGLHQGH *$GRVHULQJHQ    DQG  PJNJ OLFKDDPVJHZLFKW *$ EHVWRQG XLW  VRODQLQH DQG   FKDFRQLQH 1DHONHWRHGLHQLQJZHUGRSHHQDDQWDOWLMGVWLSSHQEORHGDIJHQRPHQRPKHWYHUORRS YDQGH VRODQLQHDQG FKDFRQLQHFRQFHQWUDWLHLQKHWVHUXPWHNXQQHQYROJHQLQGHWLMG'H FRQFHQWUDWLHWLMG FXUYHV ZHUGHQ YHUYROJHQV JHDQDO\VHHUG RP ]R GH IDUPDFRNLQHWLVFKH

SDUDPHWHUVYDQ VRODQLQHDQG FKDFRQLQH &PD[WPD[Wò$8&Š, HQ)UHO WHNXQQHQEHSDOHQ

7HYHQV ZHUGHQ HYHQWXHHO ZDDUJHQRPHQ WR[LVFKH HIIHFWHQ JHsYDOXHHUG QD HONH WRHGLHQLQJ 0HWEHKXOSYDQGHUHVXOWDWHQYDQGHYRRUVWXGLHNRQHHQJHVFKLNWEORHGDIQDPHVFKHPDYRRU EHLGHWRHGLHQLQJVYRUPHQZRUGHQJHYRQGHQ$OV*$GRVHULQJLQDDUGDSSHOSXUHHEOHHNHHQ *$GRVHULQJ !  DQG   PJNJ OLFKDDPVJHZLFKW KHW PHHVW JHVFKLNW %LM GH]H GRVHULQJVUDQJH NDQ GH IDUPDFRNLQHWLHN YDQ aFKDFRQLQH JRHG EHSDDOG ZRUGHQ YRRU a

VRODQLQH NXQQHQ ELM GH]H GRVHULQJ LQ LHGHU JHYDO &PD[ DQG WPD[ JRHG EHSDDOG ZRUGHQ

$IKDQNHOLMN YDQ GH YHUGHUH RSWLPDOLVDWLH YDQ GH DQDO\VHPHWKRGH LQ VHUXP NXQQHQ RRN GH RYHULJHSDUDPHWHUVEHSDDOGZRUGHQYRRUaVRODQLQH

'HRQGHU]RFKWH*$GRVHULQJVUDQJHYRRUKHWGUDQNMHOHYHUGHJHHQJHVFKLNWH*$GRVHULQJRS GH*$FRQFHQWUDWLHVLQKHWVHUXPNRQGHQQLHWODQJJHQRHJJHPHWHQZRUGHQ*HEDVHHUGRSGH UHVXOWDWHQ YDQ GH YRRUVWXGLH ZRUGW YHUZDFKW GDW HHQ *$GRVHULQJ YDQ  PJNJ

(7)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI OLFKDDPVJHZLFKW JHVFKLNW LV RP GH IDUPDFRNLQHWLHN YDQ aVRODQLQH HQ aFKDFRQLQH WH EHVWXGHUHQ ]RQGHU GDW GDDUELM WR[LVFKH HIIHFWHQ RSWUHGHQ 1DDU YHUZDFKWLQJ NDQ GH IDUPDFRNLQHWLHNYDQaFKDFRQLQHJRHGEHSDDOGZRUGHQELMGH]HGRVHULQJ2RNKLHUJHOGWYRRU

aVRODQLQHGDWELMGH]HGRVHULQJLQLHGHUJHYDO&PD[DQGWPD[JRHGEHSDDOGNXQQHQZRUGHQ

$IKDQNHOLMN YDQ GH YHUGHUH RSWLPDOLVDWLH YDQ GH DQDO\VHPHWKRGH LQ VHUXP NXQQHQ ZDDUVFKLMQOLMNRRNGHRYHULJHIDUPDFRNLQHWLVFKHSDUDPHWHUVEHSDDOGZRUGHQYRRUaVRODQLQH +RJHUHGRVHULQJHQZRUGHQQLHWDDQEHYROHQRPGDWWR[LVFKHHIIHFWHQGDQQLHWNXQQHQZRUGHQ XLWJHVORWHQ

+HWUDSSRUWHLQGLJWPHWHHQDDQWDODDQYXOOHQGHDDQEHYHOLQJHQYRRUGHKRRIGVWXGLHHQPHWHHQ DDQWDOEHODQJULMNHFRQFOXVLHVXLWGHYRRUVWXGLH

(8)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

6XPPDU\

3RWDWRHVFRQWDLQWKHJO\FRDONDORLGV *$V aVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHZKLFKDUHNQRZQWREH WR[LFWRKXPDQVDQGRWKHUVSHFLHV*HQHUDOO\PJ*$VSHUNJSRWDWRHVLVDFFHSWHGDVVDIH OHYHO LQ KXPDQV 7KLV OHYHO LV EDVHG RQ OLPLWHG HYLGHQFH VLQFH SURSHU LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ *$ WR[LFLW\DQGSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVLQKXPDQVDUHODFNLQJ7RLPSURYHULVNDVVHVVPHQW RI *$V D VWXG\RQSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRIRUDOO\DGPLQLVWHUHG*$VLQKXPDQVLVSODQQHGWREHFDUULHGRXWDW WKH 1DWLRQDO ,QVWLWXWH RI 3XEOLF +HDOWK DQG WKH (QYLURQPHQW 5,90  :LWK WKH JDWKHUHG LQIRUPDWLRQRQSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVGDWDIURPWR[LFLW\VWXGLHVLQDQLPDOVFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHG7KLV ZLOO HQDEOH KHDOWK SROLF\ PDNHUV WR PDNH D FRQVFLRXV GHFLVLRQ ZKHWKHU RU QRW WKH SUHVHQW UHFRPPHQGHGOLPLWRIPJ*$VSHUNJSRWDWRHVQHHGVDGDSWDWLRQ

%HIRUHWKHVWXG\RQSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVFDQEHSHUIRUPHGDSLORWVWXG\ZDVUHTXLUHG7KHOLPLWHG LQIRUPDWLRQRQWR[LFLW\LQUHODWLRQWR*$GRVHLQKXPDQVQHFHVVLWDWHGDGRVHILQGLQJVWXG\ SLORW VWXG\ WRILQG DQRSWLPDOEORRGVDPSOLQJVFKHPHDQG DQRSWLPDO*$GRVHIRUDVXEVHTXHQW VWXG\ RQ SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV RI *$V 7KH EORRG VDPSOLQJ VFKHPH VKRXOG UHVXOW LQ VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPHFXUYHVIURPZKLFKDGHTXDWHSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFSDUDPHWHUVFDQEHREWDLQHG 7KH*$GRVHVKRXOGEHKLJKHQRXJKWRUHVXOWLQPHDVXUDEOHVHUXP*$FRQFHQWUDWLRQVEXWORZ HQRXJKWRDYRLGWR[LFHIIHFWV

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

VRODQLQHDQG FKDFRQLQH &PD[WPD[Wò$8&Š, DQG)UHO ,QDGGLWLRQSRVVLEOHDGYHUVHWR[LF

HIIHFWVZHUHHYDOXDWHGDIWHUHDFKGRVHDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ

$QRSWLPDOEORRGVDPSOLQJVFKHPHWRVWXG\SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRIaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQH DIWHUDGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIPDVKHGSRWDWRHVDQGWHVWVROXWLRQZDVREWDLQHGIURPWKHUHVXOWVRIWKH SLORWVWXG\

7R VHOHFW WKH RSWLPDO *$ GRVH IRU WKH IXOO VWXG\ ERWK DGYHUVHWR[LF HIIHFWV DQG WKH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFUHVXOWVRIWKHSLORWVWXG\ZHUHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW)URPWKHUHVXOWVRIWKH SLORW VWXG\ LW ZDVFRQFOXGHGWKDW IRU ERWK aVRODQLQH DQG aFKDFRQLQH PDVKHG SRWDWRWRHV FRQWDLQLQJD*$GRVH!DQGPJNJERG\ZHLJKWLVRSWLPDOIRUWKHIXOOVWXG\ :LWKLQ WKLV GRVH UDQJH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV RI aFKDFRQLQH FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG DGHTXDWHO\

UHJDUGLQJ aVRODQLQH DW OHDVW &PD[ DQG WPD[ FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG 'HSHQGLQJ RQ WKH IXUWKHU

RSWLPDOLVDWLRQRIWKHDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGWKHRWKHUSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFSDUDPHWHUVRIaVRODQLQH FDQEHGHWHUPLQHG

5HJDUGLQJWKHWHVWVROXWLRQLWLVFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKH*$GRVHUDQJHVWXGLHGLQWKHSLORWVWXG\ GLG QRW LQFOXGH DQ RSWLPDO GRVH VHUXP *$ FRQFHQWUDWLRQV FRXOG QRW EH PHDVXUHG ORQJ

(9)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI HQRXJKLQWLPH%DVHGRQWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHSLORWVWXG\LWFDQEHH[SHFWHGWKDWD*$GRVHRI  PJNJ ERG\ ZHLJKW ZLOO EH DSSURSULDWH WR VWXG\ WKH EDVLF SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV RI a FKDFRQLQH DQG aVRODQLQH ZLWKRXW WKH RFFXUUHQFH RI DGYHUVH HIIHFWV ,W LV H[SHFWHG WKDW DOO SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV RI aFKDFRQLQH FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG DGHTXDWHO\ DW WKLV GRVH

5HJDUGLQJaVRODQLQHDWOHDVW&PD[DQGWPD[FDQEHGHWHUPLQHGDWWKLVGRVH'HSHQGLQJRQWKH

IXUWKHU RSWLPDOLVDWLRQ RI WKH DQDO\WLFDO PHWKRG LQ VHUXP WKH RWKHU SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV RI aVRODQLQH FDQ SUREDEO\ EH GHWHUPLQHG +LJKHU GRVHV DUH QRW UHFRPPHQGHG EHFDXVHDGYHUVHHIIHFWVDWWKHVHGRVHVFDQQRWEHH[FOXGHG

,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHEORRGVDPSOLQJVFKHPHDQG*$GRVHVVRPHPRUHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVIRUWKH IXOOVWXG\DUHLQFOXGHGLQWKLVUHSRUW7KHUHSRUWHQGVZLWKVRPHLPSRUWDQWFRQFOXVLRQVIURP WKHSLORWVWXG\

(10)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

 ,QWURGXFWLRQ

 %DFNJURXQG

,Q'HVIRVVHVUHSRUWHGWKHGLVFRYHU\RIDQHZRUJDQLFEDVHLVRODWHGIURPEHUULHVRIEODFN QLJKWVKDGH 6RODQXP QLJUXP  2QH KXQGUHG PLOOLJUDPV RI WKLV FRPSRXQG ZKLFK KH QDPHG VRODQpHFDXVHGFRQVLGHUDEOHYRPLWLQJDQGXQFRQVFLRXVQHVVZKHQDGPLQLVWHUHGRUDOO\WRDGRJ >@ 7KH 6RODQDFHDH IDPLO\ DSSHDUHG WR FRQWDLQ PDQ\ SODQWV LPSRUWDQW WR PDQ ERWK DV DJULFXOWXUDO FURSV OLNH SRWDWR WRPDWR EHOO SHSSHU DQG DV ZHHGV OLNH QLJKWVKDGH >@ $ FRPSRXQG VLPLODU WR VRODQpH ZDV IRXQG LQ SRWDWRHV DQG ZDV QDPHG VRODQLQH >@ 7KH FRPSRVLWLRQRIVRODQLQHZDVILQDOO\UHYHDOHG \HDUVODWHU DVDPL[WXUHRIWZRJO\FRVLGLF FODVVHV RI JO\FRDONDORLGV *$V  LH VRODQLQH DQG FKDFRQLQH %RWK FODVVHV KDYH WKH VDPH PHWDEROLWHWKHDJO\FRQHVRODQLGLQH>@

)LJXUH  DQG WDEOH  GHVFULEH VRPH RI WKH FKHPLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI aVRODQLQH a FKDFRQLQHDQGVRODQLGLQHa6RODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHDUHERWKWULJO\FRVLGHVRIWKHDJO\FRQH VRODQLGLQHDVWHURLGDOKH[DF\FOLFDONDORLGGHULYHGIURPFKROHVWHURO*$VDUHIDLUO\KHDWVWDEOH FRPSRXQGVWKHLUPHOWLQJSRLQWVDWZKLFKVRPH*$VPD\VWDUWGHFRPSRVLQJYDU\LQJHQHUDO IURP  •& WR  •& >@ $W WKHVH WHPSHUDWXUHV WKHLU DJO\FRQH VRODQLGLQH VKRZV QR GHFRPSRVLWLRQ>@

)LJXUH6WUXFWXUHVRIaVRODQLQHaFKDFRQLQHDQGWKHLUDJO\FRQHVRODQLGLQH  JOX 'JOXFRVHJDO 'JDODFWRVHUKDP /UKDPQRVH

(11)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

7DEOH0ROHFXODUIRUPXODHDQGZHLJKWVRIaVRODQLQH

aFKDFRQLQHDQGWKHLUDJO\FRQHVRODQLGLQH

7KH IXQFWLRQ RI *$V ZDV SURSRVHG WR EH SURWHFWLRQ RI WKH SODQWV DJDLQVW FHUWDLQ SHVWV DQG GLVHDVHVFDXVHG E\ LQVHFWV DQG IXQJL 7KH*$VSUHVHQWLQ SRWDWRHV 6RODQXPWXEHURVXP  DUH PDLQO\aVRODQLQHDQGa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

 7R[LFLW\RISRWDWRJO\FRDONDORLGV

'XULQJWKHSDVWWZRGHFDGHVWKHDWWHQWLRQIRUWR[LFHIIHFWVRI*$VKDVLQFUHDVHG7R[LFLW\GDWD GHULYHGIURPLQYLWURVWXGLHVDQGDQLPDOVVWXGLHVLQGLFDWHWKDWaFKDFRQLQHLVWKHPRVWWR[LF DONDORLGRIWKHSRWDWRJO\FRDONDORLGV>@,WH[KLELWVVWURQJO\WLFSURSHUWLHVLVWHUDWRJHQLFDQG LQKLELWV DFHW\OFKROLQHVWHUDVH DQG EXW\U\OFKROLQHVWHUDVH >@ a6RODQLQH H[KLELWV OHVV O\WLF SURSHUWLHV EXW OLNHZLVH a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aVRODQLQH &+12  aFKDFRQLQH &+12  VRODQLGLQH &+12 

(12)

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|PHU DQG 0DWWLV FRQFOXGHG LQ  WKDW SRWDWRHV ZLWK FRQWHQWV RI *$V H[FHHGLQJ  PJNJ DUH SRWHQWLDOO\ KD]DUGRXV WR KXPDQV >@ 7KH\ KDG IRXQG WKDW SRWDWRHV LQYROYHG LQ SRLVRQLQJ VKRZHG FRQWHQWV RI *$V H[FHHGLQJPJNJIUHVKZHLJKW6LQFHWKHQPDQ\DXWKRUVKDYHLQWHUSUHWHGWKLVVWDWHPHQWDV µSRWDWRHVFRQWDLQLQJDPRXQWVRI*$VEHORZPJNJDUHVDIHIRUFRQVXPSWLRQ¶+RZHYHU VXUSULVLQJO\ OLWWOH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH VXEDFXWH DQG SRVVLEOH FKURQLF WR[LFLW\ RI WKH *$V LV DYDLODEOHWRVXSSRUWWKLVVWDWHPHQW>@,Q5RVVHWDOVXJJHVWHGWKDWIURPWKHYLHZSRLQW RIVHOHFWLQJFXOWLYDUVIRUKXPDQFRQVXPSWLRQWKHOLPLWVKRXOGEHWRPJNJSRWDWRHV>@ 0RUHUHFHQWO\6ODQLQDHWDOSURSRVHGWRFKDQJHWKHPD[LPXPWROHUDWHGGRVHWRPJ*$VNJ XQSHHOHGSRWDWR>@

$V LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH -RLQW ([SHUW &RPPLWWHH RQ )RRG $GGLWLYHV DQG RWKHU LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPPLWWHHVPRUHDGHTXDWHWR[LFRORJLFDOVWXGLHVDUHQHHGHG>@7KH1DWLRQDO,QVWLWXWHRI 3XEOLF+HDOWKDQGWKH(QYLURQPHQWKDVDOUHDG\SHUIRUPHGDVXEFKURQLFWR[LFLW\VWXG\ZLWKa VRODQLQHLQKDPVWHUV>@2QWKHEDVLVRIWKLVVWXG\WKH12$(/LVPJaVRODQLQHNJGLHW FRUUHVSRQGLQJWRPJNJERG\ZHLJKW,IDVDIHW\HYDOXDWLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWE\FRQVLGHULQJ aVRODQLQH DV IRRG DGGLWLYH IRU GDLO\ IRRG XVH WKDQ SUREDEO\ D VDIHW\ IDFWRU RI DW OHDVW  ZRXOGKDYHEHHQDSSOLHGEHFDXVHQRFKURQLFWR[LFLW\VWXG\LVDYDLODEOH7KLVZRXOGUHVXOWLQDQ DFFHSWDEOHGDLO\LQWDNH $', RIPJNJERG\ZHLJKWLQKXPDQV$VaVRODQLQHLVQRWD IRRGDGGLWLYHEXWDQLQKHUHQWSODQWWR[LQSUHVHQWLQDQLPSRUWDQWIRRGLWHPDSSOLFDWLRQRIVXFK DQ$',ZRXOGOHDGWRDQXQGHVLUHGORZFRQVXPSWLRQRISRWDWRSURGXFWVIURPDQXWULWLRQDOSRLQW RIYLHZEHFDXVHSRWDWRHVSURYLGHQXWULHQWDQGYLWDPLQVDVEXONIRRGLQPDQ\FRXQWULHV

 &RQVXPSWLRQH[SRVXUHHVWLPDWHVRISRWDWR

JO\FRDONDORLGV

7KH$',LVQRWHDVLO\WREHWUDQVODWHGLQWRFRPSOHPHQWDU\DPRXQWVRISRWDWRHVVLQFHSRWDWRHV DQGSRWDWRSURGXFWVPD\FRQWDLQYDULDEOHDPRXQWVRI*$$VVXPLQJDQDYHUDJHµGDLO\¶LQWDNH IRUSRWDWRHVRIJ>@DQGDQDYHUDJHGDLO\LQWDNHRIJIRUFULVSV>EDVHGRQDYHUDJH \HDUO\FRQVXPSWLRQGDWD NJSHUSHUVRQSHU\HDU IURPWKH ,QIRUPDWLRQ 6HUYLFH IRU)RRG 6WXG\ &HQWUH IRU 6QDFNV  6ZHHWV 9RRUOLFKWLQJVEXUHDX YRRU GH 9RHGLQJ 6WXGLHFHQWUXP 6QDFNV  =RHWZDUHQ  =HLVWWKH1HWKHUODQGV@WKHIROORZLQJ *$ H[SRVXUH FDQ EH FDOFXODWHG JLYHQYDULRXV*$FRQWHQWVLQSRWDWRHV

(13)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI 7DEOH(VWLPDWHGVLQJOHGD\*$H[SRVXUHVIRUGLIIHUHQWFRQVXPSWLRQVLWXDWLRQVDQG*$FRQWHQWV &RQVXPSWLRQH[DPSOHV *$FRQWHQW PJNJ SRWDWRHV *$FRQWHQW PJNJ SRWDWRHV *$FRQWHQW PJNJ‚ SRWDWRHV ,3RWDWRHVJ œ $GXOWNJ%: œ &KLOGNJ%:  PJVXEMHFW  PJNJ%:  PJNJ%:  PJVXEMHFW  PJNJ%:  PJNJ%:  PJVXEMHFW  PJNJ%:  PJNJ%:  ,,3RWDWRHVJ)UHQFKIULHVJ œ $GXOWNJ%: œ &KLOGNJ%: PJVXEMHFW PJNJ%: PJNJ%: PJVXEMHFW PJNJ%: PJNJ%: PJVXEMHFW PJNJ%: PJNJ%: 7KHSUHVHQWDOORZDEOH*$FRQFHQWUDWLRQLQSRWDWRHV XSSHUVDIHOLPLW  ‚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

(14)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW 3RWDWRHV FRQWDLQLQJ HOHYDWHG OHYHOV RI *$V !  PJNJ  FDXVH D ELWWHU WDVWH RU EXUQLQJ VHQVDWLRQLQWKHWKURDWZKHQFRQVXPHG>@7KLVKDVEHHQVXJJHVWHGDVLQGLFDWLYHIRUOHYHOV RI *$V LQ SRWDWRHV WRR KLJK IRU VDIH FRQVXPSWLRQ +RZHYHU FHUWDLQ PHWKRGV RI IRRG SUHSDUDWLRQFDQPDVNWKHELWWHUWDVWH>@,WLVFRQFHLYDEOHWKDWELWWHUQHVVLVHDVLO\XQQRWLFHGLQ FULVSV SUREDEO\ EHFDXVH RI WDVWH PDVNLQJ E\ VDOW RU RLO 7KH ELWWHUQHVV PD\ DOVR YDU\ ZLWK GLIIHUHQWUDWLRVRIaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQH)RULQVWDQFHaFKDFRQLQHLVPXFKPRUHELWWHU WKDQaVRODQLQH0RUHRYHULQGLYLGXDOVVHHPWRYDU\LQWKHLUSHUFHSWLRQRI*$ELWWHUQHVV>@ 7KHVH IDFWRUV DQG WKH PDQ\ FDVHV RI *$ SRLVRQLQJ VKRZ WKDW WKH WDVWH RI SRWDWRHV LV QRW D UHOLDEOHLQGLFDWRUIRU*$OHYHOVWRRKLJKIRUFRQVXPSWLRQ

7R VXPPDULVH WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ H[SRVXUH HVWLPDWHV VHHP WR LQGLFDWH WKDW SXEOLF KHDOWK LV SRWHQWLDOO\ DW ULVN IRU aVRODQLQH DQG aFKDFRQLQH LQWR[LFDWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH PRUH DGHTXDWH KXPDQ ULVN DVVHVVPHQW GDWD OLNH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV RI *$V VKRXOG EH SURYLGHG

 .LQHWLFVRISRWDWRJO\FRDONDORLGVLQPDQ

/DERUDWRU\DQLPDOVDSSHDUWREHOHVVVHQVLWLYHWR*$WR[LFLW\WKDQPDQ,Q RUGHU WR ILQG RXW ZKHWKHU WKHVH GLIIHUHQFHV DUH GXH WR GLIIHUHQFHV LQ SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV KRZ PXFK RI WKH FRPSRXQGLVDEVRUEHGKRZORQJGRHVLWVWD\LQWKHERG\LQZKLFKIRUPGRHVLWVWD\LQWKHERG\ E\ZKLFKURXWHLVWKHFRPSRXQGHOLPLQDWHGHWF" RULQSKDUPDFRG\QDPLFV ZKDWLVWKHUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH DPRXQW RI FRPSRXQG DW UHFHSWRU VLWH DQG WKH HIIHFWV   SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV RI a VRODQLQHaFKDFRQLQHDQGVRODQLGLQHQHHGWREHLQYHVWLJDWHGLQKXPDQV

 $EVRUSWLRQDQGELRDYDLODELOLW\

0RVWVWXGLHVRQSRWDWR*$VLQPDQZHUHQRWGHVLJQHGWRVWXG\WKHSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRIWKHVH FRPSRXQGV)RUWKDWUHDVRQQRUHOLDEOHGDWDFRXOGEHREWDLQHGIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHIUDFWLRQ DEVRUEHGRUIRUGHWHUPLQLQJRUDOELRDYDLODELOLW\RI*$V2QO\GDWDOLNHWKHPD[LPXPVHUXP

FRQFHQWUDWLRQ &PD[ DQGWKHWLPHDWZKLFKWKLVFRQFHQWUDWLRQLVDFKLHYHG WPD[ ZKLFKERWK

FDQ EH UHJDUGHG DV LQGLFDWLYH IRU DEVRUSWLRQ ZHUH JHQHUDWHG E\ +HOOHQlV HW DO >@ 7KH\ SHUIRUPHG D VWXG\ LQ KHDOWK\ YROXQWHHUV LQ ZKLFK EORRG VHUXP OHYHOV RI aVRODQLQH a FKDFRQLQH DQG VRODQLGLQH ZHUH PHDVXUHG GXULQJ D K SHULRG IROORZLQJ D VLQJOH PHDO RI PDVKHGSRWDWRHV HTXLYDOHQWWRPJ*$VNJERG\ZHLJKW 0D[LPXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIa VRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHZHUHDFKLHYHGDQGKRXUVSRVWGRVHUHVSHFWLYHO\ZKHUHDV&PD[ ZDVQJPOIRUaVRODQLQHDQGQJPOIRUaFKDFRQLQH&PD[RIWKHDJO\FRQHVRODQLGLQH FRXOGQRWEHGHWHUPLQHGDFFXUDWHO\EHFDXVHWKHEORRGVDPSOLQJVFKHPHZDVQRWRSWLPDOIRU VWXG\LQJWKHSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRIVRODQLGLQH'HWHFWDEOHDPRXQWVRIVRODQLGLQHDSSHDUHGDIWHU KRXUVLQDOOVXEMHFWV7KHKLJKHVWVRODQLGLQHYDOXHVZHUHIRXQGDWRUKRXUVDIWHUWKH SRWDWRPHDODQGYDULHGDPRQJWKHVXEMHFWVEHWZHHQDQGQJPO

(15)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

 %LRWUDQVIRUPDWLRQDQGGLVWULEXWLRQ

%LRWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ $OWKRXJK RQO\ aVRODQLQH DQG aFKDFRQLQH DUH QRUPDOO\ SUHVHQW LQ VLJQLILFDQWDPRXQWVLQWKHKXPDQGLHWLWLVOLNHO\WKDWWKH\FDQEHPHWDEROLVHGE\K\GURO\VLVRI WKHLUVLGHFKDLQJO\FRVLGHaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHFDQEHK\GURO\VHGWRWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHb DQG g IRUPV 6XEVHTXHQWO\ WKH gIRUPV FDQ EH K\GURO\VHG LQWR WKH DJO\FRQH VRODQLGLQH VHH ILJXUH ,QWKHVWXG\SHUIRUPHGE\+HOOHQlVHWDORQO\WKHSDUHQWFRPSRXQGV aIRUPV DQG WKH DJO\FRQH FRXOG EH GHWHFWHG LQ +3/&FKURPDWRJUDPV RI KXPDQ VHUXP IROORZLQJ RUDO DGPLQLVWUDWLRQRIaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHYLDPDVKHGSRWDWRHV7KHUHZHUHQRWUDFHVRIWKH bRUgJO\FRVLGHV>@6RODQLGLQHPD\HLWKHUEHSUHVHQWLQWKHSRWDWRWXEHURUPD\EHIRUPHG LQ  WKH KXPDQ ERG\ YLD LQWHVWLQDO RU KHSDWLF PHWDEROLVP  ,W VHHPV OLNHO\ WKDW VRODQLGLQH LV PDLQO\ IRUPHG LQ WKH KXPDQ ERG\ EHFDXVH WKH DPRXQW RI VRODQLGLQH SUHVHQW LQ SRWDWRHV LV QHJOLJLEOH>@0RUHRYHU+HOOHQlVHWDO>@UHSRUWHGVLJQLILFDQWVHUXPOHYHOVRIVRODQLGLQH IROORZLQJ RUDO DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ RI *$V YLD PDVKHG SRWDWRHV 7KXV EHVLGHV WKH SDUHQWDO a VRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHRQO\WKHDJO\FRQHVRODQLGLQHFRXOGEHGHWHFWHGLQKXPDQVHUXP 7KH VLWH V  DW ZKLFK K\GURO\VLV WDNH SODFH LV QRW FOHDU ,Q WKH VWXG\ PHQWLRQHG DERYH PHDQ VHUXPWRWDODONDORLGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVZHUHDERXWWLPHVWKHVRODQLGLQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQZKLFK DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH DXWKRUV VXJJHVW FRQVLGHUDEOH PHWDEROLVP LQ PDQ RI aVRODQLQH DQG a FKDFRQLQHWKURXJKK\GURO\VLVRIWKHVXJDUUHVLGXHV,WZDVVXJJHVWHGWKDWK\GURO\VLVFRXOGWDNH SODFH LQ WKH DFLG PHGLXP RI WKH VWRPDFK RU DW LQ WKH JDVWURLQWHVWLQDO WUDFW DW WKH VLWH RI DEVRUSWLRQ >@ +RZHYHU QR VROLG HYLGHQFH ZDV JLYHQ IRU JDVWURLQWHVWLQDO PHWDEROLVP RI VRODQLQHLQWRVRODQLGLQHE\WKHUHVXOWVRIWKLVVWXG\0RUHRYHUWKHVWXG\ZDVSHUIRUPHGLQUDWV DQGGXHWRLQWHUVSHFLHVGLIIHUHQFHVLWLVQRWFOHDUZKHWKHUWKLVK\SRWKHVLVLVDOVRYDOLGIRUWKH VLWXDWLRQLQKXPDQV

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

 ([FUHWLRQ

7HUPLQDOHOLPLQDWLRQKDOIOLYHVIRUaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHZHUHFDOFXODWHGWREHDQG KUHVSHFWLYHO\LQDVLQJOHRUDOGRVHVWXG\RI+HOOHQlV>@+RZHYHULWLVQRWOLNHO\WKDW WKHVH YDOXHV UHSUHVHQW WHUPLQDO HOLPLQDWLRQ KDOIOLYHV EHFDXVH WKH VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPH FXUYHVVXJJHVWWKDWWKHHOLPLQDWLRQSKDVHKDGQRWEHHQUHDFKHGZLWKLQWKLVVWXG\GXUDWLRQ7KH GDWDPHQWLRQHGDERYHWKHUHIRUHPD\XQGHUHVWLPDWHWKHUHDOWHUPLQDOHOLPLQDWLRQKDOIOLIH &ODULQJEROG HW DO VWXGLHG WKH NLQHWLFV DQG UHWHQWLRQ RI LQWUDYHQRXVO\ DGPLQLVWHUHG WULWLDWHG VRODQLGLQHLQPDQ>@3UHVXPLQJWKDWUDGLRDFWLYLW\UHSUHVHQWHGVRODQLGLQHRULWVPHWDEROLWHV

(16)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

(17)

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

 0XOWLSOHGRVHNLQHWLFVYHUVXVVLQJOHGRVHNLQHWLFV

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

 6WXG\REMHFWLYHV

7KH OLPLW RI  PJ *$NJ SRWDWRHV LV EDVHG RQ D  VPDOO DPRXQW RI HYLGHQFH VLQFH SURSHU LQIRUPDWLRQRQ*$WR[LFLW\RUSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVLQKXPDQVLQODFNLQJ7KHUHKDYHEHHQVRPH VWXGLHV LQ YDULRXV VSHFLHV RI DQLPDOV EXW GXH WR LQWHUVSHFLHV GLIIHUHQFHV WKHVH GDWD DUH QRW H[WUDSRODWDEOH WR WKH KXPDQ VLWXDWLRQ /DERUDWRU\ DQLPDOV DSSHDU WR EH OHVV VHQVLWLYH WR *$ WR[LFLW\ WKDQ PDQ ,Q RUGHU WR ILQG RXW ZKHWKHU WKHVH GLIIHUHQFHV DUH GXH WR GLIIHUHQFHV LQ SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRULQSKDUPDFRG\QDPLFVILUVWSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRIaVRODQLQHaFKDFRQLQH DQG VRODQLGLQH QHHG WR EH IXUWKHU LQYHVWLJDWHG LQ KXPDQV 7KH OLPLWHG LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ *$ WR[LFLW\LQUHODWLRQWRGRVHLQKXPDQVXUJHVWKHQHHGWRILUVWSHUIRUPDGRVHILQGLQJVWXG\ SLORW

(18)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW VWXG\  WR ILQG DQ RSWLPDO GRVH DQG VDPSOLQJ VFKHPH IRU D VXEVHTXHQW VWXG\ RQ WKH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRIRUDOO\DGPLQLVWHUHG*$VLQKXPDQV:LWKWKHJDWKHUHGLQIRUPDWLRQRIWKH IXOOVWXG\WR[LFLW\GDWDIURPDQLPDOVWXGLHVFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHGDQGZLOOHQDEOH KHDOWK SROLF\ PDNHUVWRPDNHDFRQFLRXVGHFLVLRQZKHWKHURUQRWWKHSUHVHQWUHFRPPHQGHGOLPLWRI PJNJSRWDWRHVQHHGVDGDSWDWLRQ

 2XWOLQHRIUHSRUW

7KLV UHSRUW GHVFULEHV WKH UHVXOWV RI D SLORW VWXG\ RQ WKH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV RI RUDOO\ DGPLQLVWHUHG aVRODQLQH DQG aFKDFRQLQH LQ KHDOWK\ YROXQWHHUV &KDSWHU  RI WKLV UHSRUW SULPDULO\ GHVFULEHV WKH VWXG\ GHVLJQ RI WKH SLORW VWXG\ WKH VXEMHFWV *$ WUHDWPHQWV DQG DQDO\WLFDOSURFHGXUHIRUGHWHUPLQLQJaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHLQKXPDQVHUXP(IIHFWVRI GRVDJHIRUPDQGGRVHKHLJKWRQWKHSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVDQGWKHRFFXUUHQFH RI DGYHUVHWR[LF HIIHFWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWKHUHVXOWVVHFWLRQLQFKDSWHU,QFKDSWHUWKHUHVXOWVDUHGLVFXVVHG DQG  WKH PRVW RSWLPDO *$ GRVH DQG EORRG VDPSOLQJ VFKHPH IRU WKH IXOO VWXG\ WR EH SHUIRUPHGLQIXWXUH LVJLYHQ)XUWKHUPRUHVRPHVXJJHVWLRQVIRUWKHIXOOVWXG\DUHJLYHQLQ FKDSWHU&RQFOXVLRQVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQFKDSWHU

(19)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

 0DWHULDOV 0HWKRGV

 5DWLRQDOHIRUWKHGHVLJQRIWKHSLORWVWXG\

7RDWWDLQWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKHSLORWVWXG\ WRREWDLQDQRSWLPDO*$GRVHDQGEORRGVDPSOLQJ VFKHPHIRUWKHIXOOVWXG\ WZRFULWHULDDUHLPSRUWDQW   7KHRSWLPDOVDPSOLQJVFKHPHDQGRSWLPDO*$GRVHVKRXOGUHVXOWLQVHUXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQ WLPHFXUYHVRI*$VWKDWHQDEOHDGHTXDWHGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHEDVLFSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFVRI*$V   7KHRSWLPDO*$GRVHVKRXOGQRWUHVXOWLQJDVWURLQWHVWLQDOHIIHFWVRURWKHUWR[LFHIIHFWV

7KH JHQHUDO ZD\ WR VWXG\ EDVLF SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV LQFOXGLQJ &PD[ WPD[ LQWHUQDO H[SRVXUH

$8&Š RI VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQ WLPH FXUYH  WHUPLQDO KDOIOLIH DQG RUDO ELRDYDLODELOLW\  RI D

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

 7HVWPDWHULDOV

7KH WHVW PDWHULDOV XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ ZHUH   D WHVW VROXWLRQ FRQWDLQLQJ aVRODQLQH DQG a FKDFRQLQHDQG PDVKHGSRWDWRHV

)RUHDFKWHVWSHULRGWKHWHVWVROXWLRQZDVIUHVKO\SUHSDUHGE\WKH&HQWUDO3KDUPDF\RIWKH 8WUHFKW 8QLYHUVLW\ +RVSLWDO 7KH WHVW VROXWLRQV ZHUH SUHSDUHG E\ GLVVROYLQJ WKH SURSHU DPRXQWV RI aVRODQLQH &$6  SXULW\ !  DQG aFKDFRQLQH &$6  SXULW\! VXSSOLHGE\)OXNDLQVOLJKWO\DFLGGLVWLOOHGZDWHU7KH*$FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKH WHVWVROXWLRQIRUHDFKWHVWSHULRGLQFUHDVHGZLWKWKH*$GRVHWREHDGPLQLVWHUHG VHH 7KH *$FRPSRVLWLRQZDVaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQH7KHaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQH

(20)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI WKH WHVW VROXWLRQV KDYH EHHQ FKHFNHG E\ PHDQV RI WKH VDPH DQDO\WLFDO SURFHGXUHDVDSSOLHGIRUPHDVXUHPHQWRIVHUXPVDPSOHV 3RWDWRIODNHVZHUHSUHSDUHGLQFRRSHUDWLRQZLWKWKH$JURWHFKQLFDO5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH $72 '/2 :DJHQLQJHQ$SRWDWRYDULHW\ (ONDQD FRQWDLQLQJUHODWLYHO\KLJKDPRXQWVRI*$VZDV VWHDPSHHOHGERLOHGPDVKHGDQGGULHGWRREWDLQSRWDWRIODNHV7KHSRWDWRIODNHVZHUHFDQQHG XQGHUQLWURJHQDWPRVSKHUHDQGVWRUHGDW•&7KHSURGXFWLRQSURFHVVKDVEHHQLQVSHFWHGE\D 5,90 19,& TXDOLW\DVVXUDQFHFRRUGLQDWRU

)RUHDFKWHVW SHULRG PDVKHG SRWDWRHV FRQWDLQLQJ aVRODQLQH DQG aFKDFRQLQH ZHUH IUHVKO\ SUHSDUHGIURPSRWDWRIODNHVFRQIRUPVWULFWUHFLSH7LQQHGSRWDWRIODNHVZHUHPL[HGZLWKKRW

WDS ZDWHU R&  DQ KRXU EHIRUH FRQVXPSWLRQ E\ WKH YROXQWHHUV $SSHQGL[  OLVWV WKH

FRPSRVLWLRQ DQG SUHSDUDWLRQ RI WKH DGPLQLVWHUHG PDVKHG SRWDWRHV 7KH PDVKHG SRWDWRHV FRQWDLQHGPJ*$NJPJaVRODQLQHNJ RIWRWDO*$ DQGPJaFKDFRQLQHNJ  RI WRWDO *$  'XULQJ HDFK WHVW SHULRG WKH aFKDFRQLQH DQG aVRODQLQH FRQWHQWV RI D VDPSOH RI PDVKHG SRWDWRHV KDYH EHHQ FKHFNHG E\ PHDQV RI D PHWKRG DSSO\LQJ KLJK SHUIRUPDQFH OLTXLG FKURPDWRJUDSK\ +3/&  XVLQJ 89 GHWHFWLRQ E\ WKH /DERUDWRU\ IRU 5HVLGXH$QDO\VLV $52  $52623  

 6XEMHFWV

$VDPSOHVL]HRIPLQLPDODQGPD[LPDOSDUWLFLSDQWVZDVSODQQHGWREHXVHGIRUHDFKGRVH VWHSDQGWUHDWPHQW9ROXQWHHUVKDGWRPHHWWKHIROORZLQJFULWHULD œ $JH±\HDUVPDOHRUIHPDOH œ 3URYLVLRQRIZULWWHQLQIRUPHGFRQVHQW œ *RRGKHDOWKDFFRUGLQJWRWKHFOLQLFDOLQYHVWLJDWRU œ :LOOLQJQHVVDQGDELOLW\WRDGKHUHWRWKHUHJLPHQRIWKHVWXG\ œ %RG\ZHLJKWEHWZHHQDQGNJ WKLVFULWHULXPKDVQRWEHHQPHWIRUHYHU\YROXQWHHUWZR YROXQWHHUVZLWKDERG\ZHLJKWRINJKDYHEHHQLQFOXGHGLQWKHVWXG\  œ 4XHWHOHWLQGH[ ZHLJKW^LQNJ`VTXDUHKHLJKW^LQP` EHWZHHQDQG 7KHSRSXODWLRQWHVWHGFRQVLVWHGRIPHQDQGZRPHQDJHDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\ %RG\ZHLJKWUDQJHGIURPWRNJLQPHQDQGWRNJLQZRPHQ

 *HQHUDOGHVLJQ

7KH GHVLJQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKLV SLORW VWXG\ FDQ EH VXPPDULVHG DV IROORZV RSHQ GRVH HVFDODWLRQVWXG\XVLQJWZRGLIIHUHQWIRUPXODWLRQV)RUHDFKIRUPXODWLRQIRXUGLIIHUHQWGRVHVWHSV ZHUH SODQQHG *$ GRVH VWHSV IRU PDVKHG SRWDWRHV    DQG  PJNJ ERG\ ZHLJKW*$GRVHVWHSVIRUWHVWVROXWLRQDQGPJNJERG\ZHLJKW (DFK GRVHZDVDGPLQLVWHUHGDIWHURYHUQLJKWIDVWLQJ(DFKSDUWLFLSDQWUHFHLYHGRQO\RQHVLQJOHGRVHRI HLWKHUPDVKHGSRWDWRHVRUWHVWVROXWLRQ7KHPD[LPDOFRQVXPSWLRQSHULRGZDVPLQXWHVIRU ERWKPDVKHGSRWDWRHVDQGWHVWVROXWLRQ

(21)

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aVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHZHUHHYDOXDWHGDIWHUHDFKGRVHVWHS 7RPRQLWRUSRVVLEOHDGYHUVHWR[LFHIIHFWVWKHIROORZLQJSDUDPHWHUVKDYHEHHQLQFOXGHGLQWKH VWXG\REVHUYDWLRQRIYROXQWHHUVGXULQJWKHILUVW KRXUV RIWKH VWXG\ PHDVXUHPHQW RIYLWDO VLJQV PHDVXUHPHQWRIEORRGSUHVVXUHDQGKHDUWUDWHHOHFWURFDUGLRJUDSK\ DQGPHDVXUHPHQW RI EORRG FKROLQHVWHUDVH WR PHDVXUH SRVVLEOH LQKLELWLRQ RI DFHW\OFKROLQHVWHUDVH E\ *$V EHFDXVH*$VDUHNQRZQLQKLELWRUVRIDFHW\OFKROLQHVWHUDVH 

 &ULWHULDIRUVWRSSLQJWKHVWXG\

6LQFH WKLV SLORWVWXG\ZDV DGRVHHVFDODWLRQVWXG\DVHW RI VWRSSLQJ FULWHULD ZDV IRUPXODWHG +LJKHUGRVHVZRXOGQRWEHDGPLQLVWHUHGLQWKHSLORWVWXG\LI

œ 7KH REVHUYHG FRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPH FXUYHV HQDEOHG DQ DGHTXDWH GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF SURILOH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV ZHOO DERYH WKH GHWHFWLRQ OLPLW  DQG QR DGYHUVH HIIHFWVRFFXUHG œ /LJKWJDVWURLQWHVWLQDOHIIHFWVRFFXUHGLQWKHIRUPRIYRPLWLQJDQGRUGLDUUKRHD7KHUHDVRQ WRVWRSDWWKHOLJKWJDVWURLQWHVWLQDOHIIHFWVWDJHDUHWZRIROG)LUVWWRH[FOXGHWKHSRVVLELOLW\RI V\VWHPLFHIIHFWVDWKLJKHUGRVHV6HFRQGEHFDXVHWKHVHOLJKWJDVWURLQWHVWLQDOHIIHFWVGLUHFWO\ LQIOXHQFHWKHSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFUHVXOWVRIWKHSLORWVWXG\

 'LHWDU\UXOHV

2QHYHU\ GD\RI H[DPLQDWLRQSDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUHDVNHG WR FRPSOHWH D VKRUW GLHW TXHVWLRQQDLUH FRQFHUQLQJ*$FRQWDLQLQJFRQVXPSWLRQSURGXFWV:LWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIWKHDGPLQLVWHUHGWHVW SURGXFWVFRQVXPSWLRQSURGXFWVFRQWDLQLQJSRWDWRHVRUSRWDWRIORXUZHUHSURKLELWHGLQWKH KRXUSHULRGSUHFHGLQJHDFKSURGXFWDGPLQLVWUDWLRQDQGGXULQJWKHHQWLUHVWXG\

2Q WKH HYHQLQJ EHIRUH HDFK WUHDWPHQW SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH LQVWUXFWHG WR UHIUDLQ IURP HDWLQJ RU GULQNLQJ ZLWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIZDWHU DIWHUKRXUV

,Q YLHZ RI WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH VWXGLHV GHVFULEHG LQ SDUDJUDSK  D  KRXUV SHULRG RI SRWDWR DEVWLQHQFH SUHFHGLQJ HDFK SURGXFW DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ ZDV FKRVHQ LQ RUGHU WR ZDUUDQW WKDW a VRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHZRXOGEHDOPRVWFRPSOHWHO\HOLPLQDWHGEHIRUSURGXFWDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ 7KLV SHULRG ZDV EDVHG RQ WHUPLQDO HOLPLQDWLRQ KDOI OLYHV RI aVRODQLQH DQG aFKDFRQLQH DV GHVFULEHGE\+HOOHQlVHWDO>@

(22)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

 6WXG\SURFHGXUHV

)RU HDFK SDUWLFLSDQW WKH VWXG\ ZDV SHUIRUPHG RYHU D SHULRG RI  GD\V (DFK RI WKH  SDUWLFLSDQWV VWD\HG DW WKH &OLQLFDO 5HVHDUFK 8QLW IRU WKH ILUVW KRXU SHULRG SRVWGRVLQJ 7KHUHDIWHUWKH\DWWHQGHGWKH8QLWILYHWLPHVDWDQGKRXUVSRVWGRVH

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

 3URGXFWDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ

$W GD\  GLHW DGKHUHQFHZDV UHJLVWHUHGDQG FRQVHTXHQWO\ PDVKHG SRWDWRHVRUWHVW VROXWLRQ ZDV DGPLQLVWHUHG DW DSSUR[LPDWHO\  DP ,Q RUGHU WR RSWLPDOL]H JDVWULF SDVVDJH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH LQVWUXFWHG WR VLW XS VWUDLJKW LQ EHG IRU WKH ILUVW IRXU KRXUV DIWHU DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ

(23)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

 9LWDOVLJQVDQGDGYHUVHHYHQWV

%ORRGSUHVVXUHDQGKHDUWUDWHZHUHPRQLWRUHGZLWKDQRQLQYDVLYHDXWRPDWHGEORRGSUHVVXUH

PHWHU 3DVVSRUW 0RQLWRU RI 'DWDVFRSHŠ  7ZHOYHOHDG HOHFWURFDUGLRJUDPV ZHUH REWDLQHG

XVLQJD+HZOHWW3DFNDUGFDUGLRJUDSK W\SH$ 

3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHUHJXODUO\DVNHGZKHWKHUWKH\KDGDQ\FRPSODLQWVRUV\PSWRPVWRUHSRUW$Q\ DGYHUVHHYHQWVREVHUYHGRUUHSRUWHGZHUHGRFXPHQWHG

 %ORRGVDPSOLQJIRU*$SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV

)URPKRXUSUHGRVLQJXQWLOKRXUVSRVWGRVLQJIUHTXHQWEORRGVDPSOLQJVZHUHSHUIRUPHG IRU GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFV RI *$V )RU UHDVRQV RI FRQYHQLHQFH IRU ERWK SDUWLFLSDQWV DQG FOLQLFDO LQYHVWLJDWRUV  DQ LQWUDYHQRXV FDQQXOD ZDV LQVHUWHG LQ WKH SDUWLFLSDQW¶VIRUHDUP,QWKLVZD\VDPSOLQJVRIEORRGZHUHSHUIRUPHGDWW  DQGKRXUVUHJDUGLQJWKHWLPHSRLQWRIWHVWSURGXFWDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ

DV WLPH SRLQW ]HUR ([WUD EORRG VDPSOHV ZHUH WDNHQ DW  DQG  KRXUV IROORZLQJ

DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ RI WKH WHVW VROXWLRQ $IWHU WKH ILUVW KRXU SRVW GRVH WLPH SHULRG WKH

LQWUDYHQRXVFDQQXODZDVUHPRYHG)XUWKHUEORRGVDPSOLQJVZHUHSHUIRUPHGDW DQG  KRXUV SRVW GRVH E\ YHQHSXQFWXUH GXULQJ WKH UHWXUQ YLVLWV 6HUXP VDPSOHV ZHUH REWDLQHG DIWHU FRPSOHWH SUHFLSLWDWLRQ RI WKH FHOOXODU IUDFWLRQ DW URRP WHPSHUDWXUH  6HUXP VDPSOHVZHUHVWRUHGDW•&XQWLODQDO\VLVIRU*$V

 %ORRGVDPSOLQJIRUFKROLQHVWHUDVH

%ORRG ZDV VDPSOHG GXULQJ WKH FKHFNLQ DQG FKHFNRXW DQG DW W    DQG  KRXUV IRU PHDVXUHPHQWRIEORRGFKROLQHVWHUDVHOHYHOV

 2WKHUVWXG\SURFHGXUHV

)RUGHWDLOHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHRWKHUVWXG\SURFHGXUHVPHQWLRQHGLQWDEOHLVUHIHUUHGWR WKHFOLQLFDOUHSRUWµ&OLQLFDOSLORWVWXG\RQWKHELRDYDLODELOLW\RIJO\FRDONDORLGVIURPSRWDWR¶ (DUO-RKDQQVDQG7MHHUW0HQVLQJD0DUFK WKLVUHSRUWLVLQFOXGHGLQDSSHQGL[ 

 $QDO\VLVRIEORRGVDPSOHV

 $QDO\VLVRI*$VLQKXPDQVHUXP

$W WKH /DERUDWRU\ RI ([SRVXUH $VVHVVPHQW  (QYLURQPHQWDO (SLGHPLRORJ\ D KLJK SHUIRUPDQFH OLTXLG FKURPDWRJUDSK\ +3/&  PHWKRG ZDV GHYHORSHG IRU WKH VHSDUDWLRQ DQG TXDQWLILFDWLRQ RI VRODQLQH DQG FKDFRQLQH LQ KXPDQ EORRG VHUXP $ PHWKRG SUHYLRXVO\ GHVFULEHG E\ +HOOHQlV HW DO ZDV DGMXVWHG IRU DSSOLFDWLRQ LQ SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF VWXGLHV >@ 7KLV DGMXVWPHQW FRQWDLQHG PDLQO\ DXWRPDWLRQ RI WKH DQDO\VLV ,Q DSSHQGL[  D VFKHPDWLF RYHUYLHZ RIWKHDQDO\VLV LVJLYHQ)RU GHWHFWLQJ WKH *$V VHUXP ZDV ILUVW FOHDQHG XS E\ D PDQXDO VROLGSKDVHH[WUDFWLRQIROORZHGE\ D VHFRQG FOHDQ XS RQ DQ DQDO\WLFDO F\DQRSURS\O FROXPQ6XEVHTXHQWO\WKHFRPSRXQGVZHUHVHSDUDWHGDQGPHDVXUHGRQDQDQDO\WLFDOV\VWHP

(24)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW HTXLSSHG ZLWK D VLOLFDFROXPQ %HFDXVH RI WKH ORZ VHQVLWLYLW\ RI WKH *$V DQG WKH ORZ FRQFHQWUDWLRQRIWKH*$VLQWKHEORRGVDPSOHVDVDPSOHHQULFKPHQWFROXPQLQVWHDGRIWKH ORRSRIWKHLQMHFWRUZDVXVHGLQERWKWKHF\DQRSURS\OV\VWHPIRUFOHDQXSDVWKHDQDO\WLFDO VLOLFDV\VWHP VHHDSSHQGL[ 

7KH DQDO\WLFDO SURFHGXUH ZDV YDOLGDWHG 7KH ORZHU OLPLW RI TXDQWLILFDWLRQ //4  IRU a FKDFRQLQH ZDV  QJPO VHUXP DQG IRU aVRODQLQH  QJPO VHUXP 7KH PHWKRG ZDV OLQHDUXSWRQJPOVHUXPIRUERWKFRPSRXQGV3UHFLVLRQZDVGHWHUPLQHGDWFRQFHQWUDWLRQ OHYHOV HQQJPO DWGLIIHUHQWGD\V:LWKLQGD\YDULDWLRQZDVOHVVWKDQ ERWKIRUaFKDFRQLQHDQGIRUaVRODQLQH%HWZHHQGD\YDULDWLRQZDVDOVROHVVWKDQIRU ERWK FRPSRXQGV )RU VWDELOLW\ WHVW VHUXP REWDLQHG IURP D EORRG EDQN ZDV VSLNHG ZLWK  VRODQLQH DQG FKDFRQLQH DW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ OHYHOV RI  QJPO DQG  QJPO 7KH VSLNHG VDPSOHV ZHUH VWRUHG DW ±ƒ& DQG PHDVXUHG RYHU D SHULRG RI  ZHHNV 1R VLJQLILFDQW GHFUHDVHRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQVFRXOGEHGHWHFWHG

 $QDO\VLVRIEORRGFKROLQHVWHUDVH

0HDVXUHPHQWVRIEORRGFKROLQHVWHUDVH VHHDSSHQGL[ ZHUHSHUIRUPHGE\WKH/DERUDWRU\IRU 3URMHFW 5HVHDUFK  8WUHFKW'LDJQRVWLFV 8QLYHUVLW\+RVSLWDO 8WUHFKW  XQGHU LQWUDODERUDWRU\ TXDOLW\ FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQV XVLQJ %LRUDG VWDQGDUG VDPSOHV  DQG LQWHUODERUDWRU\ VXUYHLOODQFH FRQGLWLRQV XVLQJ WKH VR FDOOHG µULQJ YDOLGDWLRQ¶ PHWKRG FRQVLVWLQJ RI UHJXODU VDPSOH FRPSDULVRQVEHWZHHQDVHULHVRIODERUDWRULHVIRUFOLQLFDOWULDOV FKHPLVWU\ LQWKH1HWKHUODQGV >XQGHU VXSHUYLVLRQ RI WKH µ6WLFKWLQJ .ZDOLWHLWVEHZDNLQJ .OLQLVFK FKHPLVFKH =LHNHQKXLVODERUDWRULD¶@ 

 3KDUPDFRNLQHWLFSDUDPHWHUV

/DERUDWRU\DQDO\VLVRIWKHVHUXPVDPSOHVSURYLGHGVHUXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPHSURILOHVIRUa VRODQLQH DQGaFKDFRQLQHIRUHDFKVXEMHFWDQGHDFKWUHDWPHQW 7KHVH VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQ WLPHGDWDZHUHDQDO\VHGWRGHWHUPLQHPRGHOLQGHSHQGHQWO\WKHIROORZLQJNLQHWLFSDUDPHWHUV IRUHDFKVXEMHFWHDFKWUHDWPHQWIRUaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQH  &PD[ 'DWDSRLQWZLWKWKHKLJKHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQ WPD[ 7LPHSRLQWFRUUHVSRQGLQJWR&PD[ Wò (OLPLQDWLRQKDOIOLIH WODVW /DWHVWWLPHSRLQWFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRDPHDVXUDEOHFRQFHQWUDWLRQ DERYHWKH//4

$8&WODVW $UHDXQGHUWKHFXUYH IURPSRLQW]HURWRWODVWDIWHUSURGXFWDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ

$8&Š  $UHD XQGHU WKH FXUYH IURP SRLQW ]HUR WR LQILQLW\  DSSUR[LPDWHG E\ DGGLQJ

$8&WODVWDQG$8&WODVWŠ7KHODVWSDUDPHWHULVFDOFXODWHGE\H[WUDSRODWLRQRIWKH

DUHDXQGHUWKHFXUYHIURPWODVWDIWHUSURGXFWDGPLQLVWUDWLRQWRLQILQLW\E\XVLQJWKH

UDWHFRQVWDQWGHWHUPLQHGLQWKHWHUPLQDOHOLPLQDWLRQSKDVH 

7KHUHODWLYHELRDYDLODELOLW\RIaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQHIRUWUHDWPHQW$ PDVKHGSRWDWRHV

FDQEHHVWLPDWHGE\GLYLGLQJWKH$8&ŠRIWUHDWPHQW$E\WKH$8&ŠRIWUHDWPHQW% WHVW

(25)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

$8&ŠRIWUHDWPHQW$ WLPHV 'RVHRIWUHDWPHQW%

(26)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

 5HVXOWV

 3HUIRUPDQFHRIGRVHVWHSV

7KHGRVHVWHSVRIWKHWHVWVROXWLRQKDYHEHHQFKDQJHGGXULQJWKHVWXG\$IWHUWZRWHVWSHULRGVLW DSSHDUHGIURPLQWHUPHGLDWHUHVXOWVWKDWWKHRULJLQDOGRVHVWHSVFKHPHIRUWKHWHVWVROXWLRQZDV WRR FRQVHUYDWLYH DQG ZRXOG QRW OHDG WR DQ DGHTXDWH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF SURILOH 6HUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWKHILUVWWZRSHULRGVZHUHORZHUWKDQH[SHFWHGDQGFRXOGQRWEHIROORZHGORQJ HQRXJK LQ WLPH WR REWDLQ D VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPH SURILOH VXLWDEOH IRU DGHTXDWH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFDQDO\VHV)XUWKHUPRUHLQWKHILUVWWZRWHVWSHULRGVZLWKPDVKHGSRWDWRHVWZR WLPHV KLJKHU VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQV ZHUH PHDVXUHG ZLWKRXW DGYHUVH HIIHFWV ,Q YLHZ RI WKHVH UHVXOWVLWZDVGHFLGHGWRDGMXVWWKHGRVHVWHSVIRUWKHWHVWVROXWLRQDVIROORZV*$GRVHVWHS PJNJERG\ ZHLJKW ZDV RPLWWHG DQG *$GRVH VWHS  PJNJ ERG\ ZHLJKW ZDV DGGHG $Q DPHQGPHQW WR WKH SURWRFRO ZDV ZULWWHQ DQG DSSURYHG E\ WKH PHGLFDO HWKLFDO ERDUG RI WKH 8WUHFKW0HGLFDO&HQWUH WRLPSOHPHQWWKHVHGRVLQJFKDQJHV

$OOGRVHVWHSVRIWKHRWKHUWUHDWPHQWPDVKHGSRWDWRHVZHUHSHUIRUPHG$QRYHUYLHZRIWKH ILQDOGRVHVWHSVSHUWUHDWPHQWLVJLYHQLQILJXUH

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

(27)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

 ,QGLYLGXDO*$GRVHV

 0DVKHGSRWDWRHV

7KHDPRXQWVRIPDVKHGSRWDWRHVDGPLQLVWHUHGWRWKHYROXQWHHUVUDQJHGIURPWRJ VHH WDEOH 7KH*$GRVHVSHUVXEMHFWUDQJHGIURPWRPJ 7DEOH%RG\ZHLJKWDPRXQWVRIPDVKHGSRWDWRHVFRQVXPHGDQG*$GRVHIRULQGLYLGXDOVXEMHFWV WUHDWHGZLWKPDVKHGSRWDWRHV *$GRVH PJNJERG\ ZHLJKW 6XEMHFW %RG\ZHLJKW NJ 0DVKHGSRWDWRHV J *$GRVH VXEMHFW PJ                                             *$GRVHFRQVLVWHGRIaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQH 0DVKHGSRWDWRHVFRQWDLQHGPJ*$NJPJaVRODQLQHNJDQGPJaFKDFRQLQHNJ

 7HVWVROXWLRQ

7KHYROXPHRIWHVWVROXWLRQDGPLQLVWHUHGWRWKHYROXQWHHUVUDQJHGIURPPOWRPO7KH *$GRVHVSHUVXEMHFWUDQJHGIURPWRPJ VHHWDEOH  7DEOH%RG\ZHLJKWYROXPHVRIWHVWVROXWLRQFRQVXPHGDQG*$GRVHIRULQGLYLGXDOVXEMHFWV WUHDWHGZLWKWHVWVROXWLRQ *$GRVH PJNJERG\ ZHLJKW 6XEMHFW %RG\ZHLJKW NJ 7HVWVROXWLRQ *$GRVH VXEMHFW PJ PJ*$ PO PO                                         *$GRVHFRQVLVWHGRIaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQH (DFKWHVWVROXWLRQFRQWDLQHGaVRODQLQHDQGaFKDFRQLQH

(28)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

 *$VHUXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPHSURILOHV

7KHTXDOLW\RIWKHVHUXPVDPSOHVRIWKHILUVWWHVWSHULRG PDVKHGSRWDWRHVPJNJERG\ ZHLJKW  *$VROXWLRQ  PJNJ ERG\ ZHLJKW  ZDV XQVDWLVIDFWRU\ GXH WR WKH XVH RI SODVWLF WXEHVIRUEORRGFROOHFWLRQ SODVWLFWXEHVZHUHFKRVHQWRSUHYHQWDGVRUSWLRQRI*$WRWKHWXEH  7RREWDLQJRRGVHUXPVDPSOHVWKHFHOOXODUIUDFWLRQRIWKHEORRGVDPSOHVVKRXOGSUHFLSLWDWH FRPSOHWHO\7KLVSUHFLSLWDWLRQSURFHVVZDVQRWFRPSOHWHLQWKHSODVWLFWXEHV,WZDVGHFLGHGWR XVHJODVVWXEHVLQVWHDGIRUWKHIROORZLQJWHVWSHULRGV

0RVW RI WKH *$ VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI WKH ILUVW WHVW SHULRG FRXOG QRW EH PHDVXUHG 7KHUHIRUH *$ VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPH SURILOHV FRXOG QRW EH XVHG IRU DGHTXDWH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLFDQDO\VHV7KH*$VHUXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPHSURILOHVRIWKLVSHULRGDUHQRW LQFOXGHGLQWKLVUHSRUW7KHILUVWWHVWSHULRGQHYHUWKHOHVVVKRZHGPD[LPXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI

VRODQLQHDQG FKDFRQLQHEHWZHHQDQGKRXUV7KHUHIRUHLWZDVGHFLGHGWRDGDSWWKH EORRGVDPSOLQJVFKHPHIRUERWKWUHDWPHQWVWLPHSRLQWW KRXUVZDVDGGHGWRREWDLQPRUH SUHFLVH UHVXOWV RI WKH VRODQLQH DQG FKDFRQLQH SHDN LQ WKH VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPH SURILOH

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µJKRVWSHDN¶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

(29)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

)LJXUH 6RODQLQHVHUXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDVIXQFWLRQRIWLPHLQKHDOWK\KXPDQYROXQWHHUV Q  DIWHU LQJHVWLRQ RI PDVKHG SRWDWRHV *$ GRVHV   DQG  PJNJ ERG\ ZHLJKW  RU WHVW VROXWLRQ *$GRVHVDQGPJNJERG\ZHLJKW )RUHDFKVXEMHFWVHUXPVDPSOHVKDYH EHHQ DQDO\VHG XS WR  KRXUV DIWHU DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ 6HUXP aVRODQLQH FRQFHQWUDWLRQV EHORZ //4 QJPO DUHQRWLQFOXGHG %: ERG\ZHLJKW  WHVWVROXWLRQ *$PJNJ%:               KRXUV VH UX P  V RO DQ LQ H Q J P O WHVWVROXWLRQ *$PJNJ%:               KRXUV VH UX P  V RO DQ LQ H Q J P O WHVWVROXWLRQ *$PJNJ%:               KRXUV VH UX P  V RO DQ LQ H Q J P O PDVKHGSRWDWRHV *$PJNJ%:                 KRXUV VH UX P  V RO DQ LQ H Q J P O PDVKHGSRWDWRHV *$PJNJ%:                 KRXUV VH UX P  V RO DQ LQ H Q J P O PDVKHGSRWDWRHV *$PJNJ%:                 KRXUV VH UX P  V RO DQ LQ H Q J P O

(30)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW )LJXUH &KDFRQLQHVHUXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDVIXQFWLRQRIWLPHLQKHDOWK\KXPDQYROXQWHHUV Q   DIWHULQJHVWLRQRIPDVKHGSRWDWRHV *$GRVHVDQGPJNJERG\ZHLJKW RUWHVW VROXWLRQ *$GRVHVDQGPJNJERG\ZHLJKW )RUHDFKVXEMHFWVHUXPVDPSOHVKDYH EHHQDQDO\VHGXSWRKRXUVDIWHUDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ6HUXPaFKDFRQLQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVEHORZ//4 QJPO DUHQRWLQFOXGHG %: ERG\ZHLJKW  WHVWVROXWLRQ *$PJNJ%:               KRXUV VH UX P  F KD FR QL QH  Q J P O WHVWVROXWLRQ *$PJNJ%:               KRXUV VH UX P  F KD FR QL QH  Q J P O WHVWVROXWLRQ *$PJNJ%:               KRXUV VH UX P  F KD FR QL QH  Q J P O PDVKHGSRWDWRHV *$PJNJ%:                KRXUV VH UX P  F KD FR QL QH  Q J P O PDVKHGSRWDWRHV *$PJNJ%:                KRXUV VH UX P  F KD FR QL QH  Q J P O PDVKHGSRWDWRHV *$PJNJ%:                KRXUV VH UX P  F KD FR QL QH  Q J P O

(31)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

)LJXUH(IIHFWRIWKHJKRVWSHDNRQ VRODQLQHDQG FKDFRQLQHVHUXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPHSURILOHV RIDKHDOWK\KXPDQYROXQWHHUZKRLQJHVWHGPDVKHGSRWDWRHV *$GRVHPJNJERG\ZHLJKW $ HIIHFWRITXDQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHJKRVWSHDNDV VRODQLQH% HIIHFWRITXDQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHJKRVWSHDN DV FKDFRQLQH $                   KRXUV VH UX P  V RO DQL QH  QJ P O ZLWKRXWJKRVW ZLWKJKRVW %                 KRXUV VHU XP  F KD FRQL QH  QJ P O ZLWKRXWJKRVW ZLWKJKRVW

(32)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

 3KDUPDFRNLQHWLFDQDO\VLV

a6RODQLQH DQG aFKDFRQLQH VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPH SURILOHV RI WHVWSHULRG  ZHUH

DQDO\VHG WR GHWHUPLQH WKH EDVLF SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV &PD[ WPD[ Wò $8&Š WKH

SDUDPHWHUV$8&WODVWDQGWODVWKDYHEHHQGHWHUPLQHGWRFDOFXODWH$8&Š ,QDGGLWLRQWKH

UHODWLYH ELRDYDLODELOLW\RI PDVKHGSRWDWRHVYHUVXV WHVWVROXWLRQ )UHO  KDV EHHQ FDOFXODWHG LQ

WZR ZD\V XVLQJ $8&Š VHH   DQG XVLQJ $8&K $8&K ZDV FKRVHQ VLQFH a

VRODQLQHFRXOGEHPHDVXUHGIRUDOOJURXSVDWW KRXUV

$OWKRXJKWKHSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFSDUDPHWHUVKDYHEHHQGHWHUPLQHGIRUWHVWSHULRGWKLVGRHV QRW LPSOLFDWH WKDW WKH REVHUYHG VHUXP FRQFHQWUDWLRQWLPH FXUYHV HQDEOHG DQ DGHTXDWH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI DOO RI WKH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV IRU HDFK RI WKHVH WHVW SHULRGV VHH EHORZ 

,Q WKH IROORZLQJ DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV WKDW FRXOG EH GHWHUPLQHG DGHTXDWHO\LVSUHVHQWHGLQWDEOH,QDGGLWLRQWKHUHVXOWVRIHDFKSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFSDUDPHWHU DUHGLVFXVVHG7KHLQGLYLGXDOEDVLFSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFGDWDRI VRODQLQHDQGRI FKDFRQLQHDUH

VKRZQLQWDEOHDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHGDWDRI)UHORI VRODQLQHDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWDEOH

$WKRVHRI FKDFRQLQHLQWDEOH% 7DEOH$FKLHYHPHQWRIUHTXLUHGSKDUPDFRNLQHWLFSDUDPHWHUVLQWKHSLORWVWXG\ 7HVW IRUPXODWLRQ *$GRVH PJNJERG\ ZHLJKW 5HTXLUHG SKDUPDFRNLQHWLF SDUDPHWHUV 6DWLVIDFWRU\IRU

aVRODQLQH" 6DWLVIDFWRU\IRUaFKDFRQLQH" PDVKHG SRWDWRHV  &WPD[PD[ W $8&Š <HV <HV 1R //4 1R //4 <HV <HV <HV <HV  &PD[ WPD[ W $8&Š <HV <HV 1R JKRVWSHDN//4 1R //4 <HV <HV 1R JKRVWSHDN <HV  &PD[ WPD[ W $8&Š 1R JKRVWSHDNYRPLWLQJ 1R JKRVWSHDNYRPLWLQJ 1R //4 1R JKRVWSHDNYRPLWLQJ //4 1R JKRVWSHDNYRPLWLQJ 1R YRPLWLQJ <HV 1R JKRVWSHDNYRPLWLQJ WHVWVROXWLRQ  &PD[ WPD[ W $8&Š <HV <HV 1R //4 1R //4 <HV <HV 1R //4 1R //4  &PD[ WPD[ W $8&Š <HV <HV 1R //4 1R //4 <HV <HV <HV <HV  &PD[ WPD[ W $8&Š <HV <HV 1R //4 1R //4 <HV <HV 1R //4 1R //4

Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

betrekking tot juniorskole gehad nie. Die ::plek van d;t.e juniowskool in die Transvaalse onder- wysstelsel. bouing van die juniorskool.. persentasie, maar wat veral

To measure the relative availabilities of detritivores and geophages for earth- worm predators, in March – May 2015 we determined their surface availability at night on 11

StrongDAD configured isolated nodes and did not handle merging situations to correct possible conflicts, which resulted in a very high number of conflicts: 29 conflicts in

Firm F (founded in 2012) has a unique business model that incorporates the investment of assets into changing health related behavior, offering financial rewards and

Synopsis van methoden 2.1 Effectindicator biodiversiteit 2.1.1 Criteria 2.1.2 Naar een nieuwe maat 2.1.3 Potentiële biodiversiteit 2.2 Modellering depositiescenario’s

Results A higher Population of Earthworms Microbial Activity Mineralization Prevents Volatilization of Organic Matter Keep more Dissolved Organic Carbon.. Problem

“Ik gebruik vrij weinig social media functies van onze Logica SharePoint omgeving.” “Wat betreft de workspaces gebruik ik alleen de financial worspace, omdat daar de

De drie thema’s in deze bundel betreffen de zorg voor het Nederlandse cultuurlandschap; enkele aspecten van de Zeeuwse dorpen en het water, vooral toch het binnenwater, op