UHVHDUFKIRU PDQDQGHQYLURQPHQW 5,-.6,167,7887922592/.6*(=21'+(,'(10,/,(8 1$7,21$/,167,787(2)38%/,&+($/7+$1'7+((19,5210(17 5,90UDSSRUW (FRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJYDQ PLOLHXJHUHODWHHUGHJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQ (HQYHUNHQQLQJ $'XVVHOGRUS((00YDQ.HPSHQ $(0)UDQVVHQ $XJXVWXV 'LWRQGHU]RHNZHUGYHUULFKWLQRSGUDFKWHQWHQODVWHYDQKHW0LQLVWHULHYDQ:HO]LMQ 9RONVJH]RQGKHLGHQ6SRUW,QVSHFWLH*H]RQGKHLGVEHVFKHUPLQJLQKHWNDGHUYDQSURMHFW 6FKDWWLQJ3RSXODWLH$WWULEXWLHYH5LVLFR¶V&RQWDPLQDQWHQ63$5& 5,903RVWEXV%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHIRRQID[
SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW
9RRUZRRUG
'LWUDSSRUWLVRSJHVWHOGLQKHWNDGHUYDQSURMHFWµ6FKDWWLQJ3RSXODWLH$WWULEXWLHYH 5LVLFR¶V&RQWDPLQDQWHQ63$5&¶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
,QKRXG
9HUNODUHQGHZRRUGHQOLMVW $EVWUDFW 6DPHQYDWWLQJ ,QOHLGLQJ $DQOHLGLQJHQGRHO *H]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQYDQPLOLHXYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ $FWLYLWHLWHQRSKHWJHELHGYDQHFRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJ :HUNZLM]H ,QKRXGUDSSRUW (FRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJVPHWKRGHQ :LOOLQJQHV7R3D\ +HWZDDUGHUHQYDQJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQYDQPLOLHXYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ (IIHFWHQYDQOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ (FRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJYDQPRUWDOLWHLWGRRUOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ (FRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJYDQPRUELGLWHLWGRRUOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ 6WDWLRQDU\2IILFH±'HSDUWPHQWRI+HDOWK±/RQGRQµ(FRQRPLFDSSUDLVDORIWKHKHDOWKHIIHFWVRIDLU SROOXWLRQ¶ :+2VWXGLHµ+HDOWKFRVWVGXHWRURDGWUDIILFUHODWHGDLUSROOXWLRQHFRQRPLFHYDOXDWLRQ¶ *HOXLG 'H&RQWLQJHQW9DOXDWLRQPHWKRGHHQKLQGHU +HGRQLF3ULFLQJHQHIIHFWHQYDQJHOXLG $QGHUHHIIHFWHQYDQJHOXLGXLWJHGUXNWLQJHOG 'LVFXVVLH /LWHUDWXXU %LMODJH9HU]HQGOLMVW %LMODJH *DQJEDUHPHWKRGHQRPGH:73YRRUPLOLHXJHUHODWHHUGHJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQWHEHSDOHQ %LMODJH 6WXGLHVQDDUHFRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJYDQJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQYDQOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ HQJHOXLGSDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW
9HUNODUHQGHZRRUGHQOLMVW
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yPHQYDQHHQ PLOLHXYHUDQGHULQJRSEDVLVYDQHQTXr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
$EVWUDFW
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
6DPHQYDWWLQJ
2PHHQEHHOGWHNULMJHQYDQGHDFWLYLWHLWHQRSKHWJHELHGYDQKHWHFRQRPLVFKZDDUGHUHQYDQ PLOLHXJHUHODWHHUGHJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQLVHHQOLWHUDWXXUVWXGLHXLWJHYRHUG'H]HUDSSRUWDJH ULFKW]LFKYRRUDORSGHWRHSDVEDDUKHLGYDQHFRQRPLVFKHPHWKRGHQYRRUGLWGRHOKHWJHHQGH GLVFXVVLHRYHUGHZHQVHOLMNKHLGHQKHWQXWYDQGLWFRQFHSWNDQYRHGHQ'DDUWRH]LMQ YHUVFKLOOHQGHVWXGLHVQDDUHFRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJYDQJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQYDQ OXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJHQJHOXLGEHNHNHQHQEHVFKUHYHQ9RRUHQQDGHOHQHQWKHRUHWLVFKH DVSHFWHQYDQGHHFRQRPLVFKHPHWKRGHQ]HOINRPHQVOHFKWVEHSHUNWDDQERG (U]LMQYHUVFKLOOHQGHVWXGLHVYHUULFKWQDDUGHEHWDOLQJVEHUHLGKHLG:LOOLQJQHVV7R3D\:73 YDQPHQVHQRPHHQEHSDDOGPLOLHXULVLFRWHYHUPLMGHQ'HHFRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJV PHWKRGHQGLHKLHUELMKHWPHHVWZRUGHQJHEUXLNW]LMQ&RQWLQJHQW9DOXDWLRQHQ+HGRQLF 3ULFLQJ'HZDDUGHQYRRUGHEHWDOLQJVEHUHLGKHLGZRUGHQJHNRSSHOGDDQGHWHYHUZDFKWHQ JH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQYDQHHQPDDWUHJHORIJHEUXLNWRPGHNRVWHQWHEHUHNHQHQYDQGH KXLGLJHVLWXDWLH9RRUJHOXLGZRUGWYULMZHODOWLMGDOOHHQKLQGHUEHNHNHQYRRU OXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJEHWUHIWKHWHHQEUHHGVFDODDDQHIIHFWHQ'HODDWVWHMDUHQLVLQHHQDDQWDO JURWHSURMHFWHQJHWUDFKWRPRSEDVLVYDQEHVWDDQGHHQRIDIJHOHLGHZDDUGHQYRRUGH EHWDOLQJVEHUHLGKHLGNRVWHQHQEDWHQYDQPDDWUHJHOHQWHEHSDOHQ7ZHHYDQGH]HSURMHFWHQRS KHWJHELHGYDQOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJZRUGHQLQGLWUDSSRUWEHVFKUHYHQ 8LWKHWRYHU]LFKWEOLMNWGDWKHWHFRQRPLVFKZDDUGHUHQYDQPLOLHXJHUHODWHHUGH JH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQRSRQGHUGHOHQQRJYHHORQ]HNHUKHGHQEHYDW'H]HKHEEHQYRRUDO EHWUHNNLQJRSGHEHSHUNWHEHVFKLNEDDUKHLGYDQGDWDGHMXLVWHJH]RQGKHLGVHLQGSXQWHQULVLFR VFKDWWLQJHQVFKDWWLQJHQYDQGHGDDUPHHVDPHQKDQJHQGHEHGUDJHQHQPHWKRGRORJLVFKH SUREOHPHQXLWGUXNNHQYDQPRUWDOLWHLWLQZDDUGHYDQHHQVWDWLVWLVFKOHYHQRIZDDUGHYRRUHHQ JHZRQQHQOHYHQVMDDUKHWRYHU]HWWHQYDQZDDUGHQXLWHHQDQGHUHFRQWH[W]RDOVJHELHGRIW\SH ULVLFR2PGDWYRRUDIJDDQGDDQGHJHOGHOLMNHVFKDWWLQJHQRRNRQ]HNHUKHGHQ]LWWHQLQKHW VFKDWWHQYDQGHWHYHUZDFKWHQJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQRQWVWDDQJURWHPDUJHVLQGHJHVFKDWWH ¶HLQGEHGUDJHQ¶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rWH(HQELMNRPHQGYRRUGHHOKLHUYDQLVGDWGHGLVFXVVLHRYHU PHWKRGLHNHQHQKHWEHJULSYDQKHWZDDUGHUHQYDQJH]RQGKHLGLQJHOG]XOOHQWRHQHPHQ KHWJHHQGHEHVOLVVLQJRYHUGHWRHSDVVLQJHUYDQLQGHWRHNRPVWWHQJRHGHNDQNRPHQ
5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ
,QOHLGLQJ
$DQOHLGLQJHQGRHO
+HWPLOLHXEHOHLGLVHURSJHULFKWRPRQJHZHQVWHPLOLHXHIIHFWHQWHYRRUNRPHQ6WHHGVYDNHU VSHOHQNRVWHQRYHUZHJLQJHQHHQUROELMGHDIZHJLQJZHONHPLOLHXPDDWUHJHOHQZRUGHQLQJH]HW RIKDDOEDDU]LMQ'HNRVWHQYDQPDDWUHJHOHQ]LMQYDDNZHOEHNHQGGHEDWHQGLHHUWHJHQRYHU VWDDQ]LMQPRHLOLMNHULQJHOGXLWWHGUXNNHQZDDUGRRU]HQLHWJRHGNXQQHQZRUGHQ PHHJHQRPHQLQHHQµHHUOLMNH¶DIZHJLQJWXVVHQGHNRVWHQHQGHEDWHQ'LWWHUZLMO YHUEHWHULQJHQYDQGHJH]RQGKHLGYDQGHPHQVZRUGHQEHVFKRXZGDOVGHEHODQJULMNVWHEDWHQ YDQOXFKWNZDOLWHLWGULQNZDWHUHQDIYDOUHJXOHULQJHQHQRRNELMSURJUDPPD¶VJHULFKWRS EHVWULMGLQJVPLGGHOHQHQWR[LVFKHVWRIIHQLQFRQVXPHQWHQSURGXFWHQVSHOHQ]HHHQEHODQJULMNH URO/RQGRQ6WDWLRQDU\2IILFH&URSSHU%RYHQGLHQ]LMQGHEDWHQYDQ PDDWUHJHOHQRPWHYROGRHQDDQGHOXFKWNZDOLWHLWQRUPHQZDDUVFKLMQOLMNKRJHUGDQGHNRVWHQ YDQGH]HPDDWUHJHOHQ2OVWKRRUQHWDO9RRUEHOHLGVPDNHUVLVKHWQXWWLJRPLQ]LFKWWH KHEEHQLQGH]HEDWHQ]RGDWPDNNHOLMNHUSULRULWHLWHQNXQQHQZRUGHQJHVWHOGRPGDW LQ]LFKWHOLMNLVJHPDDNWZDDUGHPHHVWHµZLQVW¶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s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µJHOG¶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
*H]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQYDQPLOLHXYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ
*H]RQGKHLGLVPHHUGDQGHDIZH]LJKHLGYDQ]LHNWH]HZRUGWGRRUHHQJURRWDDQWDOIDFWRUHQ EHSDDOGµ*H]RQGKHLGLVKHWUHVXOWDDWYDQHHQLQJHZLNNHOGHQG\QDPLVFKVDPHQVSHOWXVVHQ HUIHOLMNHHQYHUZRUYHQLQGLYLGXHOHHLJHQVFKDSSHQHQHU]LMGVHQRPJHYLQJVIDFWRUHQDOV OHHIVWLMOVRFLDOHRPJHYLQJHQI\VLHNHRPJHYLQJDQGHU]LMGV¶5XZDDUGHQ.UDPHUV &HQWUDDOELMKHWEHJULSJH]RQGKHLGVWDDWGHFDSDFLWHLWGLHLHPDQGKHHIWRP]RZHOI\VLHN PHQWDDODOVVRFLDDOWHNXQQHQIXQFWLRQHUHQ*RHUGWHWDO)UREHUJHQ.DQH RIZHOµWKHDELOLW\WRFRSHZLWKGHPDQGVRIHYHU\GD\OLIH¶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¶QYHUKRJLQJPRHLOLMNDDQWHWRQHQ'HYUDDJLQZHONHPDWHPLOLHXIDFWRUHQRQ]H JH]RQGKHLGDDQWDVWHQLVGDQRRNQLHWHHQYRXGLJWHEHDQWZRRUGHQ'H+ROODQGHUHQ/HEUHW 'DDUQDDVWNXQQHQHIIHFWHQYDQPLOLHXIDFWRUHQRSGHJH]RQGKHLGYHOHYRUPHQ DDQQHPHQYDQVWHUNXLWHHQORSHQGHJH]RQGKHLGVNXQGLJHEHWHNHQLVILJXXU+HWJDDWELM GH]HHIIHFWHQQLHWSHUVpRPVWHUIWHRI]LHNWHPDDUYDDNRRNRPHHQJHULQJHYHHODO KHUVWHOEDUHDDQWDVWLQJYDQOLFKDDPVIXQFWLHVKLQGHUVODDSYHUVWRULQJHQEHOHYLQJVDVSHFWHQ 5,90'H+ROODQGHUHWDO'H+ROODQGHUHWDO
$FWLYLWHLWHQRSKHWJHELHGYDQHFRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJ
'HODDWVWHMDDULVYHHOJHZHUNWDDQPHWKRGHQRPHHQJHOGHOLMNHZDDUGHWHJHYHQDDQ PLOLHXYHUEHWHULQJHQ'HWRHSDVVLQJHUYDQKHHIWHHQPLQGHUKRJHYOXFKWJHQRPHQ'LWNRPW JHGHHOWHOLMNGRRUGDWUHOHYDQWHHLQGSXQWHQYDDNPRHLOLMNWHGHILQLsUHQ]LMQ'DDUQDDVWLVKHW ODVWLJRPHHQSULMVNDDUWMHDDQULVLFRYHUPLQGHULQJWHKDQJHQGRRUGDWYHUVFKLOOHQLQULVLFR¶V PRHLOLMNWHEHYDWWHQ]LMQHQPHQVHQQLHWJHZHQG]LMQKLHURYHUYHUYROJHQVLQWHUPHQYDQJHOG WHRQGHUKDQGHOHQ&URSSHU7RFKLVHUYDQXLWKHWPLOLHXEHOHLGGHODDWVWHMDUHQLQ WRHQHPHQGHPDWHEHODQJVWHOOLQJRP]RZHOGHNRVWHQDOVGHEDWHQYDQEHSDDOGH PLOLHXPDDWUHJHOHQRIJURWHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHOHZHUNHQELMYRRUEHHOGGHXLWEUHLGLQJYDQ 6FKLSKROLQNDDUWWHEUHQJHQ,QGHµ&OHDQ$LU$FW¶9HUHQLJGH6WDWHQZRUGWUHHGVJHsLVWGDW NRVWHQEDWHQDIZHJLQJHQZRUGHQPHHJHQRPHQELMKHWLPSOHPHQWHUHQYDQPDDWUHJHOHQ ,Q(XURSDQHHPWHYHQHHQVGHEHODQJVWHOOLQJYRRUNRVWHQEDWHQDIZHJLQJHQWRH=RZRUGWLQ KHW(XURSHVHRQGHU]RHNVSURMHFW([WHUQ(GDWLQLVRSJHVWDUWHHQV\VWHPDWLVFKH EHQDGHULQJRQWZLNNHOGRPGHH[WHUQHNRVWHQYDQYHUVFKLOOHQGHPDQLHUHQYDQHQHUJLH SURGXNWLHLQNDDUWWHEUHQJHQ+HWGRHOLVWHNRPHQWRWHHQHHQGXLGLJHPHWKRGRORJLHRPGH PLOLHXHIIHFWHQHQVRFLDOHNRVWHQWHNZDQWLILFHUHQGLHVDPHQKDQJHQPHWHQHUJLHSURGXNWLHHQ ±FRQVXPSWLHHQGH]HWRHWHSDVVHQLQGH(XURSHVH8QLH+LHUELMZRUGHQNQHOSXQWHQLQGH PHWKRGRORJLHHQRQGHU]RHNVYUDJHQJHw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sOHEDWHQYDQPLOLHXPDDWUHJHOHQ'H WRHJHSDVWHPHWKRGHNRPWJURWHQGHHOVRYHUHHQPHWGHPHWKRGHGLHJHYROJGLVLQGHVWXGLH µ(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQWDO3ULRULWLHVDQLQWHJUDWHGHFRQRPLFDQGHQYLURQPHQWDODVVHVVPHQW¶ 5,90HWDO
:HUNZLM]H
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
2PGHOH]HULQ]LFKWWHJHYHQLQGHYHUVFKLOOHQGHPHWKRGHQZRUGWLQKRRIGVWXNHHUVWNRUW LQJHJDDQRSGHHFRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJVPHWKRGHQGLHZRUGHQJHEUXLNWLQRQGHU]RHNQDDU H[WHUQHNRVWHQYDQPLOLHXYHUDQGHULQJHQ9HUYROJHQVZRUGHQLQKRRIGVWXNHQHQNHOH VWXGLHVEHVFKUHYHQZDDULQGHNRVWHQHQEDWHQHFRQRPLVFKZDDUGHUHQYDQ JH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQJHUHODWHHUGDDQOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJHQJHOXLGJHVFKDW]LMQ5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ
(FRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJVPHWKRGHQ
'HZDDUGHULQJYRRUPLOLHXHQQDWXXUDOVFROOHFWLHYHJRHGHUHQNDQQLHWGLUHFWLQPDUNWSULM]HQ ZRUGHQXLWJHGUXNW(U]LMQGDDURPYHUVFKLOOHQGHHFRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJVPHWKRGHQ RQWZLNNHOGRPWRFKYHUDQGHULQJHQLQRIKHWLQVWDQGKRXGHQYDQPLOLHXNZDOLWHLWXLWWH NXQQHQGUXNNHQLQHHQJHOGHHQKHLG,QKHWZDDUGHUHQYDQJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQKHHIWLQGH ORRSGHUMDUHQGH:LOOLQJQHVVWR3D\:73VWHHGVPHHUWHUUHLQJHZRQQHQ,QGLWKRRIGVWXN ZRUGWHHQNRUWHEHVFKULMYLQJJHJHYHQYDQPHWKRGHQGLHZRUGHQJHEUXLNWRPGH:73WH EHSDOHQ:LOOLQJQHVV7R3D\
:LOOLQJQHVVWR3D\:73LVKHWDOOHUKRRJVWHEHGUDJGDWLHPDQGYULMZLOOLJEHUHLGLVWH EHWDOHQYRRUHHQJRHGRIGLHQVW+RHYHQDJHOHQ2SVFKRRU'H:73LVJHEDVHHUGRS YRRUNHXUHQYDQPHQVHQELMKHWVFKDWWHQYDQGHNRVWHQYDQJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQDOVJHYROJ YDQPLOLHXYHURQWUHLQLJLQJHQJHHIWKHWHHQEHHOGYDQGHEHWDOLQJVEHUHLGKHLGYDQPHQVHQRIGH PDDWVFKDSSLMYRRUHHQPLOLHXYHUDQGHULQJHQKHWGDDUPHHJHDVVRFLHHUGHJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFW 7HUEHSDOLQJYDQGH:73]LMQHHQJURRWDDQWDOZDDUGHULQJVPHWKRGHQEHVFKLNEDDU+LHUELM ZRUGWRQGHUVFKHLGJHPDDNWWXVVHQµ([SUHVVHG6WDWHG3UHIHUHQFH¶µ5HYHDOHG3UHIHUHQFH¶HQ µ1RQ3UHIHUHQFH¶PHWKRGHQ]LHILJXXU%LMµ([SUHVVHG3UHIHUHQFH¶PHWKRGHQZRUGWGH :73GLUHFWJHPHWHQGRRULQGLYLGXHQWHYUDJHQQDDUYRRUNHXUHQYRRUFROOHFWLHYHJRHGHUHQ ]LHWDEHO(UZRUGWXLWJHJDDQYDQHHQK\SRWKHWLVFKHVLWXDWLH%LMµ5HYHDOHG3UHIHUHQFH¶ PHWKRGHQZRUGWGH:73LQGLUHFWEHSDDOGRSEDVLVYDQYHUWRRQGJHGUDJHQLVJHEDVHHUGRS HHQUHODWLHGLHEHVWDDWWXVVHQHHQPDUNWHQHHQPLOLHXJRHG,QGLYLGXHOHXLWJDYHQDDQ PDUNWJRHGHUHQZRUGHQJHNRSSHOGDDQHHQYHUPHGHQULVLFRRIYHUNUHJHQYRRUGHHO ELMYRRUEHHOGGHNRVWHQYDQHHQDLUEDJZRUGHQJHNRSSHOGDDQGHULVLFRYHUODJLQJGLH GDDUPHHVDPHQKDQJW+LHUELMZRUGWGXVXLWJHJDDQYDQHHQEHVWDDQGHVLWXDWLHµ1RQ SUHIHUHQFH¶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µYRRU ZHONEHGUDJDFFHSWHHUWPHQHHQJHJHYHQULVLFR¶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
5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ
+HWZDDUGHUHQYDQJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQYDQ
PLOLHXYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ
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ppQZDDUGHULQJVPHWKRGHRPWRWHHQWRWDOHVFKDWWLQJ YDQGHEDWHQYDQHHQPDDWUHJHOWHNRPHQ&RQWLQJHQWYDOXDWLRQHQ+HGRQLF3ULFLQJZRUGHQ GDDUELMKHWPHHVWJHEUXLNW(HQHQNHOHVWXGLHQHHPWRRNHIIHFWHQ]RDOVJHKRRUYHUOLHVHQKDUW HQYDDW]LHNWHQPHH]LHKRRIGVWXN5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ
(IIHFWHQYDQOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ
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
OXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ
2PGDWYDDNJHHQ:73VFKDWWLQJHQYRRUHHQYHUODJLQJYDQVWHUIWHULVLFR¶VGRRU OXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJYRRUKDQGHQ]LMQZRUGWGH:73GLNZLMOVEHSDDOGPHWµUHYHDOHG SUHIHUHQFH¶PHWKRGHQ]RNXQQHQ]HELMYRRUEHHOG]LMQDIJHOHLGYDQULVLFR¶VGLHVDPHQKDQJHQ PHWDUEHLGHQKHWGDDUELMEHKRUHQGHORRQµZDJHGLIIHUHQWLDO¶PHWKRGH]LHELMODJH(HQ DQGHUXLWJDQJVSXQWLVKHWEHSDOHQYDQGH:73RSEDVLVYDQGHXLWJDYHQGLHZRUGHQJHGDDQ DDQJRHGHUHQGLHULVLFR¶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µVODFKWRIIHUV¶YDQOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ]LMQRXGHUJHPLGGHOGHOHHIWLMGWXVVHQMDDU 0HQVHQLQGHOHHIWLMGYDQMDDUOLMNHQLQKHWDOJHPHHQGHKRRJVWH:73WHYHUWRQHQ :+2'H:73YRRUKHWYHUODJHQYDQHHQULVLFR]DOELMRXGHUHPHQVHQGXV ZDDUVFKLMQOLMNODJHUOLJJHQGDQELMGHJHPLGGHOGHZHUNQHPHURIKHWJHPLGGHOGH YHUNHHUVVODFKWRIIHUKHWJHHQH[WUDDDQQDPHQYHUHLVWRPWRWHHQMXLVWH:73ZDDUGHWHNRPHQ 6FKDWWLQJHQXLWDQGHUHFRQWH[WJHELHGODQG 9DDNZRUGHQVFKDWWLQJHQYDQGH:73YRRUVWHUIWHGRRUOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJRYHUJHQRPHQ XLWHHQVWXGLHDINRPVWLJXLWHHQDQGHUODQGµEHQHILWWUDQVIHU¶'HWRHSDVEDDUKHLGYDQGH ZDDUGHQYRRUGHHLJHQVLWXDWLHLVYDDNRQGXLGHOLMN7HQHHUVWHNDQGHSHUFHSWLHYDQULVLFR¶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
5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ 92/<9DOXHRIDOLIH\HDUORVWGLHGH:73XLWGUXNWYRRUHHQYHUORUHQOHYHQVMDDU 0RPHQWHHOOLMNWGH92/<WHUUHLQWHZLQQHQLQGHOLWHUDWXXU'HUHGHQKLHUYRRULVGDWGH 92/<PHHUUHFKWGRHWDDQGHFRQWH[WYDQULVLFR¶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
(FRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJYDQPRUELGLWHLWGRRU
OXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ
+HWEHSDOHQYDQGHNRVWHQYDQPRUELGLWHLWLVQRJPLQGHUHHQGXLGLJGDQKHWEHSDOHQYDQGH NRVWHQYDQPRUWDOLWHLW'HNRVWHQYDQHHQDDQGRHQLQJNXQQHQZHOLVZDDUUHODWLHIHHQYRXGLJ ZRUGHQXLWJHGUXNWLQGHNRVWHQYDQGH]LHNWHPHGLFLMQHQEH]RHNDDQKHW]LHNHQKXLVPDDU GDDUQDDVWLVKHWGHYUDDJLQKRHYHUUHHQRSZHONHPDQLHURRNNRVWHQYDQSURGXFWLHYHUOLHV GRRUGDWPHQVHQQLHWNXQQHQZHUNHQHQNRVWHQYDQSLMQHQOLMGHQZRUGHQPHHJHQRPHQ 'H]HODDWVWHDVSHFWHQ]LWWHQZHOLQHHQ:73ZDDUGHZDDUGRRUGH]HKRJHUOLJWGDQGH&2, 2VWURJDDWLQ]LMQVWXGLHXLWYDQ&2,ZDDUGHQHQYHUKRRJWGH]HPHWHHQIDFWRURP HHQ:73ZDDUGHWHYHUNULMJHQ'HIDFWRUNLHVWKLMRSEDVLVYDQVWXGLHVQDDUGHUDWLRWXVVHQ &2,HQ:73+LHUELMZRUGWRSJHPHUNWGDWKHWHHQVRRUWQRRGRSORVVLQJLVLPPHUVSHU JH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFW]DOGH]HUDWLRYHUVFKLOOHQ2RNZRUGWLQWZLMIHOJHWURNNHQRIHHQIDFWRUDOV GH]HZHOSODXVLEHOLVDDQJH]LHQVRPPLJHHUQVWLJH]LHNWHQRQEHKDQGHOEDDU]LMQ'H&2,]DO GDQODDJ]LMQWHUZLMOGH:73RPKHWULVLFRRSHHQGHUJHOLMNH]LHNWHWHYHUODJHQZDDUVFKLMQOLMN KRRJ]DOOLJJHQ/RQGRQ6WDWLRQDU\2IILFH(HQH[WUDSUREOHHPELMKHWRYHUQHPHQXLW HHQDQGHUODQGYDQ:73ZDDUGHQRPPRUELGLWHLWWHYHUPLMGHQLVGDWGH]HZDDUGH DIKDQNHOLMNLVYDQGHPDWHZDDULQGHVODFKWRIIHUV]HOIPRHWHQEHWDOHQYRRUELMYRRUEHHOG PHGLVFKHNRVWHQHQYHUPLQGHUGVDODULV'HKRRJWHYDQGH:73]DOYHUVFKLOOHQWXVVHQODQGHQ ZDDUYDQGHYHU]HNHULQJVV\VWHPHQRSHHQDQGHUHPDQLHULQHONDDU]LWWHQ:+2 (HQDOJHPHQHEHVFKULMYLQJYDQKHWLQNDDUWEUHQJHQYDQNRVWHQYDQPRUELGLWHLWLVGXV PRHLOLMNWHJHYHQHONHVWXGLHSDNWGLWRS]LMQHLJHQPDQLHUDDQ7HULOOXVWUDWLHZRUGWGHOH]HU YHUZH]HQQDDUSDUDJUDDIHQZDDUYRRUGHEHVFKUHYHQVWXGLHVLVDDQJHJHYHQKRHPHQ GHNRVWHQYDQPRUELGLWHLWKHHIWJHVFKDW7DEHOJHHIWHHQRYHU]LFKWYDQGHNRVWHQHQEDWHQ YDQYHUVFKLOOHQGHJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQHQPDDWUHJHOHQRSKHWJHELHGYDQOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ XLWGHEHVWXGHHUGHVWXGLHV'H]HWDEHOLVHHQLOOXVWUDWLHYDQKHWVRRUWVFKDWWLQJHQGDWJHPDDNW ZRUGWHQRSZHONHPDUJHVPHQXLWNRPWHQGLHQWQLHWDOVEDVLVYRRUYHUJHOLMNLQJWXVVHQGH VWXGLHVSDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW
7DEHO %DWHQHQNRVWHQYDQHYHQWXHOHPDDWUHJHOHQXLWHQNHOHVWXGLHV
0DDWUHJHODFWLYLWHLW %HGUDJ %URQ
*HVFKDWWHMDDUOLMNVHJH]RQGKHLGVEDWHQDOV30 FRQFHQWUDWLHVZRUGHQJHUHGXFHHUGWRWmJP 2VWUR *HVFKDWWHMDDUOLMNVHJH]RQGKHLGVEDWHQDOV30 FRQFHQWUDWLHVZRUGHQJHUHGXFHHUGWRWmJP 2VWUR *HVFKDWWHMDDUOLMNVHJH]RQGKHLGVEDWHQDOV30 FRQFHQWUDWLHVZRUGHQJHUHGXFHHUGWRWmJP ± 2VWUR 7RWDOHEDWHQSHUMDDUELMYHUODJHQFRQFHQWUDWLHSHUHHQKHLG JPYRRUVWHGHOLMNHSRSXODWLH 30 62 2]RQSHU]RPHU PLOMRHQ(QJHOVHSRQG PLOMRHQ(QJHOVHSRQG PLOMRHQ(QJHOVHSRQG /62 /62 /62 %DWHQYDQGHLPSOHPHQWDWLHYDQHHQ HQHUJLHEHVSDULQJVSURJUDPPDLQ+RQJDULMH ± $XQDQ *H]RQGKHLGVNRVWHQGRRUHOHNWULFLWHLWVRSZHNNLQJXLW IRVVLHOHEUDQGVWRIIHQLQ(XURSHVHODQGHQ 0RUWDOLWHLW 0RUELGLWHLW .UHZLWWHWDO %DWHQYDQHPLVVLHUHGXFWLHLQ(XURSDYDQ 30 12[ 62 P(&8MDDU P(&8MDDU P(&8MDDU 2OVWKRRUQHWDO LQPLOMRHQGROODUV /RQGRQ6WDWLRQDU\2IILFH
6WDWLRQDU\2IILFH±'HSDUWPHQWRI+HDOWK±/RQGRQ
µ(FRQRPLFDSSUDLVDORIWKHKHDOWKHIIHFWVRIDLUSROOXWLRQ¶
'H'HSDUWPHQWRI+HDOWKLQ/RQGHQKHHIWHHQVWXGLHXLWJHYRHUGQDDUGHJH]RQGKHLGVEDWHQ YDQGHFRQFHQWUDWLHYHUODJLQJYDQHHQDDQWDOOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJHQGHVWRIIHQGLHRQGHUGHµ8. 1DWLRQDO$LU4XDOLW\6WUDWHJ\¶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¶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¶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sQWHQ+HWJHPLGGHOGHYRRUGH]HOHHIWLMGVJURHSLV%HZLMVRPGH]HDDQSDNWH RQGHUVWHXQHQLVQLHWYRRUKDQGHQ :73VFKDWWLQJHQPRUELGLWHLW 'HNRVWHQGLHVDPHQKDQJHQPHWPRUELGLWHLWZRUGHQYHUGHHOGLQNRVWHQYDQGH JH]RQGKHLGV]RUJZHO]LMQVNRVWHQSULYpNRVWHQELMYRRUEHHOGKHWULWMHQDDUGHGRNWHUHQ YHUOLHVDDQDUEHLGVSURGXFWLH'HODDWVWHFDWHJRULHsQZRUGHQQLHWLQGHVFKDWWLQJEHWURNNHQ GHSULYp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sQWHQ+LHUDDQZRUGWYHUYROJHQVHHQ :73ZDDUGHWRHJHNHQGRSEDVLVYDQHHQYHUJHOLMNLQJGLHHHQ:73YRRUVSHOWELMHHQ YHUDQGHULQJLQNZDOLWHLWYDQOHYHQ'HRQ]HNHUKHGHQKLHULQ]LMQHUJJURRWRQGHUDQGHUHGRRU KHWJHULQJHDDQWDOGDWDRYHUNZDOLWHLWYDQOHYHQHQKHWIHLWGDWGHGDWDDINRPVWLJ]LMQYDQ UHODWLHIPLOGHDDQGRHQLQJHQ $DQKHWYHUOHQJHQYDQOHYHQ]LMQQLHXZHNRVWHQYRRUGHJH]RQGKHLGV]RUJYHUERQGHQ+HW JDDWGDDUELMRPRQJHYHHUPDDQGWRW3RQGMDDU'H]HZRUGHQYRRUGHWRWDOH VFKDWWLQJYDQGHEDWHQDIJHWURNNHQ]LHWDEHO
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
*HHQUHGXFWLH GHOHQGRRUMDDU 2QGHUJUHQVPDDQG GHOHQGRRU
PLOMRHQ3RQG 3RQG 3RQG
6ODFKWRIIHUVKHEEHQODJHUHNZDOLWHLWYDQOHYHQGDQ GHJHPLGGHOGHRXGHUHSRSXODWLH
5HGXFWLHRQGXLGHOLMNKRHYHHO
%RYHQJUHQV
*HHQUHGXFWLH PDDOMDDU 2QGHUJUHQVPDDQGPDDO
5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ
HHQVWXNKRJHUXLWYDOOHQZDQQHHURRNPLQGHUHUQVWLJHHIIHFWHQZRUGHQPHHJHQRPHQWHPHHU RPGDWGH]HZDDUVFKLMQOLMNRSWUHGHQELMHHQJURRWDDQWDOPHQVHQ
7DEHO %DWHQSHUmJPUHGXFWLHLQYHURQWUHLQLJLQJSHUMDDULQPLOMRHQ3RQG 30SHUMDDU 62SHUMDDU 2]RQSHU]RPHU
0RUWDOLWHLW:73 ± ± ± %HVSDULQJJH]RQGKHLGV]RUJ ± ± ± 0RUELGLWHLW:73 ± ± ± 7RWDOHEDWHQ ± ± 1LHXZHNRVWHQ JH]RQGKHLGV]RUJ ± ± ± 1HWWREDWHQ ± ± (UZRUGWJHFRQFOXGHHUGGDWHFRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHULQJGHEHVWHPDQLHULVRPWHRQGHU]RHNHQ RIGHEDWHQJURWHU]LMQGDQGHNRVWHQ9RRUYHUJHOLMNLQJPHWDQGHUHLQWHUYHQWLHVLVKHWHFKWHU QXWWLJHURPGHEDWHQXLWWHGUXNNHQLQZLQVWDDQNZDOLWHLWYDQOHYHQHQRIOHYHQVYHUZDFKWLQJ
:+2VWXGLHµ+HDOWKFRVWVGXHWRURDGWUDIILFUHODWHGDLU
SROOXWLRQHFRQRPLFHYDOXDWLRQ¶
,QGH]HVWXGLHZRUGHQYRRUHHQGULHWDOODQGHQ)UDQNULMN2RVWHQULMNHQ=ZLWVHUODQGGH JH]RQGKHLGVNRVWHQEHSDDOGGLHVDPHQKDQJHQPHWOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJYHURRU]DDNWGRRU YHUNHHU+LHUWRHZRUGWGHHFRQRPLVFKHZDDUGHJHVFKDWYRRUPRUWDOLWHLW]LHNHQKXLVRSQDPH YRRUUHVSLUDWRLUHHQFDUGLRYDVFXODLUHDDQGRHQLQJHQFKURQLVFKHEURQFKLWLVEURQFKLWLV DVWPDWLVFKHDDQYDOOHQELMDVWPDSDWLs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¶VJHUHODWHHUGDDQYHUYXLOLQJWHQ RS]LFKWHYDQYHUNHHUVRQJHOXNNHQ]LHSDUDJUDDIZRUGWDDQJHQRPHQGDWGH:73WRW PDDOKRJHULVYRRUOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ'LWZRUGWHFKWHUQLHWEHZH]HQJHDFKWGHUKDOYHLV HULQGH]HVWXGLHJHNR]HQKLHUYRRUQLHWWHFRUULJHUHQ+LHUELMVSHHOWHHQUROGDWHHQ FRQVHUYDWLHYHVFKDWWLQJZRUGWJHSUHIHUHHUG:HOKHHIWPHQJHFRUULJHHUGYRRUGHKRJHUH OHHIWLMGYDQGHSRSXODWLHGLHULVLFR¶VORRSWGRRUOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ2SEDVLVYDQHHQDDQGH OLWHUDWXXURQWOHHQGH8YRUPLJHUHODWLHWXVVHQ:73HQOHHIWLMGLVHHQUHGXFWLHYDQYDQ GHRRUVSURQNHOLMNHZDDUGHQDDQJHQRPHQ=RNRPWPHQXLWHLQGHOLMNXLWRSVFHQDULR¶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µJURVV SURGXFWLRQORVV¶EHQDGHULQJ'HNRVWHQYDQYURHJWLMGLJHVWHUIWHZRUGHQKLHUELMEHSDDOGGRRU XLWWHJDDQYDQYHUORUHQWRHNRPVWLJLQNRPHQHQSURGXFWLHDOOHHQPDWHULsOHNRVWHQ]LMQKLHU GXVLQEHWURNNHQ)UDQNULMNKHHIWDOVGHHOVWXGLHHHQµFRQVXPSWLRQORVV¶EHQDGHULQJWRHJHSDVW 'HNRVWHQGLHPHWGH]HPHWKRGHQZRUGHQEHUHNHQGOLJJHQHHQIDFWRUWRWODJHUGDQGH NRVWHQJHEDVHHUGRSGH:73EHQDGHULQJ )LJXXU 7RWVWDQGNRPLQJYDQGH:73ZDDUGHQLQGH:+2VWXGLH%URQ:+2 $DQSDVVLQJ OHHIWLMGVYHUGHOLQJ UHGXFWLH *HHQDDQSDVVLQJ OHHIWLMGVYHUGHOLQJ %DVLV926/ PLOMRHQ(852 YHUNHHUVRQJHOXNNHQ 926/PLOMRHQ(XUR 926/PLOMRHQ(XUR
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
SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW 7DEHO .RVWHQYDQJH]RQGKHLGVHIIHFWHQJHUHODWHHUGDDQOXFKWYHURQWUHLQLJLQJ %URQ:+2 2RVWHQULMN )UDQNULMN 7RWDOHNRVWHQPHW DDQGHHO ZHJYHUNHHU .RVWHQWRHWH VFKULMYHQDDQ ZHJYHUNHHU 7RWDOHNRVWHQPHW DDQGHHOZHJYHUNHHU .RVWHQWRHWHVFKULMYHQDDQ ZHJYHUNHHU 0RUWDOLWHLW PLOMRHQ(85 0RUELGLWHLW PLOMRHQ (85 =ZLWVHUODQG 7RWDDO 0RUWDOLWHLW PLOMRHQ(85 0RUELGLWHLW PLOMRHQ (85
5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ
*HOXLG
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
'HPHHVWH&9VWXGLHV]LMQEXLWHQ1HGHUODQGYHUULFKW]LHWDEHOYRRUHHQRYHU]LFKW6RJXHO DKHHIWGH:73JHVFKDWGLHLQZRQHUVYDQ1HXFKkWHO=ZLWVHUODQGZLOGHQEHWDOHQYRRU GHKDOYHULQJYDQKHWYHUNHHUVODZDDL+HWJHPLGGHOGHPDDQGHOLMNVHEHGUDJGDWPHQGDDUYRRU ZLOGHEHWDOHQZDV=ZLWVHUVHIUDQFV$OHHUGHUZHUGLQ'XLWVODQG'RJVHWDOHHQ YHUJHOLMNEDUHVWXGLHXLWJHYRHUG8LWHLQGHOLMNZHUGGDDUGHJHDJJUHJHHUGH:73EHSDDOGGLH PHQZLOGHEHWDOHQYRRUGHYHUPLMGLQJYDQJHOXLGYHURRU]DDNWGRRUYHUNHHU'H:73YRUPGH RQJHYHHUYDQKHW%13LQ'XLWVODQG,QHHQDQGHUHVWXGLHLQ'XLWVODQG:HLQEHUJHU ZHUGHHQODQGHOLMNRQGHU]RHNYHUULFKWRQGHURQJHYHHUPHQVHQZDDUELMPHQGH :73YRRUµVWLOWH¶SUREHHUGHWHVFKDWWHQ$DQLHGHUHHQZHUGGHYROJHQGHYUDDJYRRUJHOHJG µ6WHOOHQ6LHVLFKELWWHYRU6LHKlWWHQGLH0|JOLFKNHLWLQHLQHUUXKLJHQ1DFKEDUVWUDH,KUHU:RKQJHJHQG]X OHEHQRKQHGDVLFKVRQVWHWZDVDQ,KUHU:RKQVLWXDWLRQlQGHUW8PZLHYLHOGUIWHQGLHPRQDWOLFKHQ :RKQNRVWHQPD[LPDOVWHLJHQGDPLW6LHGLHVHUXKLJH:RKQXQJ,KUHUMHW]LJHQJHUDGHQRFKYRU]LHKHQ D ZHQQGRUWQDKH]XNHLQ/lUP]XK|UHQLVW" E ZHQQGRUWZHQLJ/lUP]XK|UHQLVW"¶ 0HWEHKXOSYDQGHUHVXOWDWHQYDQGLWRQGHU]RHNZHUGHHQ]RJHQDDPGHµEHWDOLQJVEHUHLGKHLG IXQFWLH¶RSJHVWHOG9RRUKHWZRQHQLQHHQUXVWLJJHELHG]LHWGH]HIXQFWLHHUDOVYROJWXLW D:73LQ'0=/$HT - 'H]HIXQFWLHLVJHOGLJYDQDIG%$9RRUPHQVHQGLHLQHHQµVWLOJHELHG¶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sOHORFDWLHVYDQHHQWZHHGHQDWLRQDOH OXFKWKDYHQ$DQKXLVHLJHQDUHQLQGULH1HGHUODQGVHVWHGHQZHUGHHQLQWHUYLHZDIJHQRPHQ RPGHVRFLDOHNRVWHQYDQYOLHJWXLJODZDDLWHVFKDWWHQ$DQGHKXLVHLJHQDUHQZHUGJHYUDDJG ZHONJHOGEHGUDJ]H]RXGHQZLOOHQRQWYDQJHQWHUFRPSHQVDWLHYDQGHJHOXLGVKLQGHU'H EHUHNHQGHJHPLGGHOGHZDDUGHULQJYDQGHJHOXLGKLQGHUSHUZRQLQJLQKHWJHELHGURQGGH SRWHQWLsOHYHVWLJLQJSODDWVHQPHWPHHUGDQ.HYDULHHUWWXVVHQHQJXOGHQ DIKDQNHOLMNYDQGHJHEUXLNWHPHWKRGH 7DEHO 3ULM]HQYRRUJHOXLGKLQGHUEHSDDOGPHWEHKXOSYDQGH&RQWLQJHQW9DOXDWLRQ PHWKRGH
$XWHXU /DQG -DDU 2PVFKULMYLQJ:73 *HOXLGEURQ *HOXLG
QLYHDX %HGUDJ
-DQVHQHQ
2SVFKRRU 1HGHUODQG %HUHNHQGHJHPLGGHOGHZDDUGHULQJYRRUJHOXLG KLQGHU
/XFKWYDDUW !.H JXOGHQ 6RJXHO =ZLWVHUODQG %HGUDJGDWPHQJHPLGGHOG
SHUPDDQGZLOEHWDOHQYRRU GHKDOYHULQJYDQYHUNHHUV ODZDDL
:HJYHUNHHU 1LHWEHNHQG =ZLWVHUVH )UDQFV *HFLWHHUGLQ &OXEGHV %UX[HOOHV 'XLWVODQG " *HPLGGHOGHEHGUDJGDWHHQ SHUVRRQSHUMDDUZLOEHWD OHQYRRUHHQYHUPLQGHULQJ YDQKHWODZDDLPHW G%$ :HJYHUNHHU G%$ (&8 6DHOHVPLQGH
HQ+DPPHU " *HPLGGHOGHMDDUOLMNVH:73YRRUJHOXLGYHUEHWH ULQJYDQG%$
1LHWEHNHQG (&8
:HLQEHUJHU 'XLWVODQG :73YRRUYHUPLMGLQJYDQ
JHOXLG :HJYHUNHHU 1LHWEHNHQG :73 /$HT±
1DYUXG 1RRUZHJHQ :73YRRUHHQPDDWUHJH OHQSDNNHWWHUUHGXFWLHYDQ JHOXLGELQQHQHQEXLWHQV KXLV :HJYHUNHHU WUHLQYHUNHHU YOLHJYHUNHHU !G%$ :73 (XUR SHUMDDUSHU KXLVKRXGHQ )DEXUHOHQ
/XFKLQL )UDQNULMN :73YRRUGHHOLPLQDWLHYDQKLQGHUYHURRU]DDNW GRRUYOLHJYHUNHHU 9OLHJYHUNHHU /PD[! G%$ /PD[ G%$ /PD[ G%$ :73 )) SSSM :73 )) SSSM :73 )) SSSM %DUUHLURHWDO 6SDQMH :73YRRUHHQUHGXFWLH YDQVWDGVODZDDLRYHUGDJ HQ¶VQDFKWV :HJYHUNHHU :73 (XUR .H.RVWHQHHQKHLG'LWLVHHQHHQKHLGYRRUJHOXLGEHODVWLQJGRRUOXFKWYDDUWZDDUELMUHNHQLQJZRUGWJHKRXGHQ PHWSLHNEHODVWLQJHQWLMGHQVVWDUWVHQODQGLQJHQXLWVOXLWHQGWRHJHSDVWLQ1HGHUODQG
5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ ,QUHFHQWJHSUHVHQWHHUG(XURSHHVRQGHU]RHN1DYUXG)DEXUHOHQ/XFKLQL %DUUHLURHWDOZHUGDDQGHRQGHU]RHNVSRSXODWLHVHHQSDNNHWPDDWUHJHOHQ YRRUJHOHJGRPKHWJHOXLGQLYHDXHQRIKLQGHUQLYHDXWHUHGXFHUHQELMYRRUEHHOGHHQ PDDWUHJHOHQSDNNHWGDWKHWRPJHYLQJVJHOXLG]RXUHGXFHUHQGHKLQGHUEXLWHQVKXLV]RXPHW ZRUGHQJHUHGXFHHUGHQELQQHQVKXLVPHW9HUYROJHQVZHUGPLGGHOVLQWHUYLHZV DFKWHUKDDOGZDWPHQHUYRRURYHUKDG$DQGHKDQGYDQGHUHVXOWDWHQYDQGHLQWHUYLHZVLVGH :73JHVFKDW
+HGRQLF3ULFLQJHQHIIHFWHQYDQJHOXLG
2SKHWJHELHGYDQJHOXLGLVHHQJURRWDDQWDO+3VWXGLHVYHUULFKW0HQPDDNWRQGHUVFKHLG WXVVHQVWXGLHVGLHXLWJDDQYDQGHKXLVSULMVHQVWXGLHVGLHXLWJDDQYDQGHKXXU]LHWDEHO :HJYHUNHHU (HQ=ZLWVHUVHVWXGLH6RJXHOEWRRQGHDDQGDWZHJYHUNHHUVJHOXLGHHQVLJQLILFDQWH LQYORHGKHHIWRSKXXUSULM]HQ0HQYRQGHHQJHPLGGHOGHKXXUGDOLQJYDQELMHHQ VWLMJLQJYDQKHWJHOXLGQLYHDXYDQG%$,QGH]HVWXGLHZHUGDOVJHOXLGPDDWHHQ/$HTK JHKDQWHHUG2QGHU]RHNYDQ3RPPHUHKQHOHYHUGHYHUJHOLMNEDUHUHVXOWDWHQELMHHQ VWLMJLQJYDQG%$ZHUGHHQGDOLQJYDQJHUDSSRUWHHUGGH]HOLHSELMG%$RSWRW 'DDUELMPDDNWHPHQJHEUXLNYDQHHQ/$HTKLQG%$DOVJHOXLGVLQGH[ /DPEHUWHWDOSUHVHQWHHUWGHUHVXOWDWHQYDQVWXGLHVQDDUZHJYHUNHHUVODZDDL 5HFHQWKHHIW%HUWUDQGRSYDQGHVWXGLHVHHQPHWDDQDO\VHYHUULFKW'LW UHVXOWHHUGHLQHHQIRUPXOHZDDUPHHPHWEHKXOSYDQKHWJHOXLGVQLYHDXHQKHWMDDUOLMNVH LQNRPHQLQ86GHWRHQDPHLQ:73NDQZRUGHQEHUHNHQGSHUHHQKHLGYDQLQNRPHQGH PDUJLQDOH:73 0:73 H= + [ -P+ [ -1 :DDULQ 1 JHOXLGQLYHDX/$HT P MDDUOLMNVLQNRPHQ86 0:73 0DUJLQDOH:73 :DQQHHUILFWLHYHMDDULQNRPHQVHQ/$HTZDDUGHQZRUGHQLQJHYXOGZRUGHQZDDUGHQ YHUNUHJHQYRRUGH0:73]RDOVZHHUJHJHYHQLQWDEHO,HPDQGPHWHHQKRJHULQNRPHQLV EHUHLGPHHUWHEHWDOHQYRRUHHQUHGXFWLHYDQKHWJHOXLG2RNQHHPWGHEHUHLGKHLGRPWH EHWDOHQYRRUUHGXFWLHWRHELMKRJHUHJHOXLGEHODVWLQJ9HUGHUEOLMNWXLWGH]HVWXGLHGDWGH UHODWLHWXVVHQGH:73HQJHOXLGQLHWOLQHDLULV'H:73YRRUJHOXLGLV(XURSHUG%$SDJYDQ 5,90UDSSRUW 7DEHO 0DUJLQDOH:73YRRUZHJYHUNHHUUHGXFWLHELMMDDULQNRPHQYDQ86HQ 86 -DDULQNRPHQ86 /$HT 0:73 9HUVFKLOLQ0:73WRY/$HTG%$ 'HUHVXOWDWHQYDQ+3VWXGLHVZRUGHQYDDNVDPHQJHYDWGRRUPLGGHOYDQHHQ1RLVH 'HSUHFLDWLRQ6HQVLWLYLW\,QGH[1'6,+HWLVHHQUDWLRYDQGHSULMVYDQHHQVWLOKXLVWRY HHQJHPLGGHOGKXLV(HQ1'6,YDQEHWHNHQWGDWHHQKXLVPHWHHQJHOXLGVH[SRVLWLH/HT YDQG%$JHPLGGHOGPLQGHUZDDUGLVGDQKHW]HOIGHKXLVPHWHHQJHOXLGVH[SRVLWLHYDQ G%$,QNRVWHQEDWHQVWXGLHVZRUGWWHJHQZRRUGLJQRJYDDNJHEUXLNJHPDDNWYDQGH 1'6,YDQJHEDVHHUGRSVWXGLHVXLW&DQDGDHQGH9HUHQLJGH6WDWHQ1HOVRQ *DPEOHHWDOYLQGHQDIQDPHQYDQGHZDDUGHYDQRQURHUHQGJRHGWXVVHQHQ SHUG%$9RRUGH]HVWXGLHZHUGJHEUXLNJHPDDNWYDQKXL]HQSULM]HQXLWGHSHULRGH YRRUHHQWDO$PHULNDDQVHJHPHHQWHQ /HYLQVRQHQ*LOOHQKHEEHQHHQJHPLGGHOGH1'6,YRRUDOOHJHOXLGVVWXGLHVVLQGV EHSDDOG=HYRQGHQHHQZDDUGHYDQ$QGHUVRQHQ:LVHYRHUGHQHHQ YHUJHOLMNEDUHVWXGLHXLWRYHUGHSHULRGH'H1'6,YDULHHUGHLQGH]HVWXGLHYROJHQV 1HOVRQYDQ(HQSUREOHHPLQGHVWXGLHZDVGDWGHPHHVWHKXL]HQLQHHQ JHELHGODJHQZDDUKHWJHOXLGQLYHDXODJHUZDVGDQKHWDFKWHUJURQGQLYHDX:DWODWHUYHUVFKHHQ HHQVWXGLHYDQ+DOOHQ:HOODQG=LMRQGHU]RFKWHQKRHKHWJHOXLGYDQZHJYHUNHHUYDQ LQYORHGZDVRSGHKXLVSULMVHQKRHGLWZRUGWEHw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¶VGHNRVWHQYDQZHJYHUNHHUVODZDDLRS RQJHYHHUELOMRHQ(XUR0HWHHQ1'6,YDQHQHHQJHPLGGHOGHKXLVSULMVYDQ
(HQ1'6,ZRUGWDOVYROJWEHUHNHQG1'6, 'ZDDUGHYDQRQURHUHQGJRHG[+LHUELMLV' YHUVFKLO
5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ (XURLVGH:73YRRUGHYHUPLMGLQJYDQG%$EHUHNHQG+LHUELMZHUGYHURQGHUVWHOGGDW ZHJYHUNHHUPLOMRHQH[WUDG%$YHURRU]DDNW'H:73ZHUGRS(XURSHUSHUVRRQSHU MDDUSHUG%$JHVFKDW,QGDW]HOIGHMDDULVJHVFKDWGDWGHMDDUOLMNVHZHJYHUNHHUVNRVWHQLQ =ZHGHQRQJHYHHUPLOMRHQ(XUREHGURHJHQ-RKDQVVRQ'LWLVJHEDVHHUGRS+3 VWXGLHVXLWGHMDUHQ¶ 7DEHO .RVWHQYRRUJHOXLGKLQGHUGRRUZHJYHUNHHUEHSDDOGPHWGH+HGRQLF3ULFLQJ PHWKRGH
$XWHXU -DDU /DQG 2PVFKULMYLQJ *HOXLGPDDW
QLYHDX :DDUGH9HUPLQGHULQJ
7D\ORUHWDO &DQDGD :DDUGHGDOLQJYDQKXLVSULMVSHU
G%$ /HT $QGHUVRQHQ
:LVH 86$ :DDUGHGDOLQJYDQKXLVSULMVSHUG%$ /HT 6RJXHO =ZLWVHUODQG *HPLGGHOGHUHQWHGDOLQJELMHHQ
VWLMJLQJYDQG%$ /$HTK *DPEOHHWDO 86$ :DDUGHGDOLQJYDQKXLVSULMVSHU
G%$ /HT ,WHQ =ZLWVHUODQG *HPLGGHOGHUHQWHGDOLQJSHU
G%$ /HTK 3RPPHUHKQH =ZLWVHUODQG *HPLGGHOGHUHQWHGDOLQJSHU
G%$ *HOGLJWXVVHQG%$ /$HTK ELMG%$ ELMG%$ 1HOVRQ 86$ :DDUGHYHPLQGHULQJYDQ RQWURHUHQGJRHGELMG%$ VWLMJLQJ /'1
1HOVRQ &DQDGDHQ96 1'6,JHEDVHHUGRSVWXGLHV /HYLQVRQHQ
*LOOHQ " *HPLGGHOGH16',YRRUDOOHJHOXLGVVWXGLHVVLQGV
/DNH " 16', 3RPPHUHKQH E =ZLWVHUODQG 3URFHQWXHOHGDOLQJKXXUSULMV
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µZHO]LMQVZDDUGHULQJPHWKRGH¶'HRQGHU]RHNHUVJHYHQDDQGDWGH]H PHWKRGRORJLHQRJLQGHNLQGHUVFKRHQHQVWDDWHQGHVWXGLHYRRUDOYHUNHQQHQGLV=H]LMQHUYDQ
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
$QGHUHHIIHFWHQYDQJHOXLGXLWJHGUXNWLQJHOG
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
9HUNHHUVODZDDL +DUWYDDW]LHNWHQ ±PLOMDUG
9OLHJWXLJODZDDL +DUWYDDW]LHNWHQ PLOMDUG
$UEHLGVSOHN *HKRRUVFKDGH PLOMDUG
5,90UDSSRUW SDJYDQ