Renewable Energy as a sustainable wicked problem: Analysis of the Dutch and Swedish National Energy Plans via Governance Capabilities Criteria

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Renewable Energy as a sustainable wicked

problem

Analysis of the Dutch and Swedish National Energy Plans via Governance

Capabilities Criteria

Mariya Velichkova S2129140 11/06/2019

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Master Thesis Public Administration

To what extent do the Governance Capabilities have an impact on the ability of the Swedish and Dutch governance systems to deal with sustainable energy as a wicked problem within

their National Energy Action Plans?

Track: International and European Governance

Capstone: Sustainable Challenges as wicked problems

Date: 11/06/2019

Name: Mariya Velichkova

Student number: s2129140

Thesis supervisor: Dr. Gerard Breeman

Second reader: Elena Bondarouk

CERTIFICATION OF AUTHORSHIP: I hereby certify that I am the sole author of this report. All assistance I have received from outside sources have been documented in the report, as well as, listed after the conclusion under “Bibliography”. This report was created exclusively by me specifically for the course Master Thesis Public Administration, Leiden University.

Signature: Mariya Velichkova Date: 11th of June, 2019

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4.2 The Swedish Renewable Energy Action Plan 2020, draft energy proposal 2030 and sector development ... 42 4.3 The Dutch Renewable Energy Action Plan 2010-2020, draft energy proposal 2030 and sector development ... 53 5. Analysis of the findings ... 63 5.1 Sustainable energy as a wicked problem in the Swedish and Dutch Renewable Energy Action Plans ... 63 5.2 Governance Capabilities' impact on the ability of the Swedish governance system to deal with sustainable energy as a wicked problem ... 64 5.3 Governance Capabilities impact on the ability of the Dutch governance system to deal with sustainable energy as a wicked problem ... 74 6. Conclusion ... 80 7. Bibliography ... 83

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Table of figures

Figure 1: Characteristics of wicked problems ... 17

Figure 2: Hypothetical assumption ... 20

Figure 3: Balance of capabilities assumption ... 21

Figure 4: Most Similar Systems Design approach: dependent, control and independent variables, (Trading Economics, 2019) ... 23

Figure 5: Main data collection sources ... 25

Figure 6: Operationalization of Governance Capabilities Criteria ... 32

Figure 7: Swedish Renewable Energy development 2004-2016, (Trading Economics, 2016) ... 43

Figure 8: EU members' renewable energy development according to the targets for 2020, (Trading Economics, 2016) ... 44

Figure 9: Dutch Renewable Electricity Production 2010-2018, (CBS, 2019) ... 55

Figure 10: EU members' renewable energy development towards 2020 targets, (Lundberg, 2016) ... 56

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1. Introduction & Research Question

1.1 Problem background

The last decades have resulted in the need for “clean and affordable energy” around the globe (SDGS, 2018). Reasons for that phenomenon include gradually increasing global warming, environmental pollution and lack of responsibility, which affected the life of millions (UN, 2019). For that reason, the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals addressed several environmental, economic, but also social problems, and sustainable energy is the seventh goal which member states need to adopt on a regular basis (SDGS, 2018). In that sense, renewable energy is one of the major sustainable issues nowadays; this even comprises a wicked problem for the society (SDGS, 2018). Achieving sustainability in the energy sector is indeed a problem, because primary energy generation is causing devastating effects on the nature (Government of the Netherlands, 2010). Accordingly, an alternative energy supply is required (Murray-White, 2019). Even though more and more nations have opportunities to rely on entirely clean energy (Pierre-Louis, 2017), renewable sources are still not implemented in all countries (SDGS, 2018). This factor additionally challenges the topic of sustainable energy and how it should be governed. Thus, renewable energy is recommended for two main reasons. Firstly, because of the enormous impact that traditional energy supply has on the environment and secondly, due to increasing human needs across the globe.

1.2 Research question and relevance of the research

The United Nations (UN) member states have all incorporated strategies for renewable energy for the period between 2010 and 2020 (SDGS, 2018). But looking only at the targets is not enough to say that countries and especially governmental policies are dealing with the wickedness of the sustainable energy issue. Therefore, analyzing two European Union (EU) countries’ energy plans could provide answers for whether such energy programs are actually copying with the problem into consideration. The Dutch and Swedish Energy Action Plans have been chosen as reference points in evaluating the ability of two governance systems to deal with a wicked issue.

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Evaluating the Swedish and Dutch energy policies for 2010-2020 and considering their draft proposals for 2030 adds academic value, because it contributes to previous public administration literature about how governments and policy makers are dealing with sustainable energy. Therefore, the first main contribution from this study is the usage of the Governance Capabilities Criteria which is a tool that evaluates wicked problems via an in-depth analysis of their multi-layered and contested nature (Termeer & Dewulf, 2014; Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015). These criteria are a new way for measuring governance abilities to cope with wicked issues, in addition to focusing only on resilience, reflexivity and leadership as independent strategies as previously suggested by several scholars (Waddock, 2013; Endl, 2017). The application of the Governance Capabilities Criteria analyzes five conditions for dealing with wicked problems in the most effective way. Thus, the balanced presence of reflexivity, resilience, responsiveness, re-scaling and revitalization (Termeer & Dewulf, 2014; Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015) is considered an important step in evaluating specific policies whose goal is to deal with wicked problems of the society.

Furthermore, examining rich empirical data about best practices in the sustainable energy field implies a substantial comparison between two energy plans with very different energy targets and the outcome is the interesting area to investigate (European Commission, 2019a). In that sense, the societal value of this research lies in the fact that it examines two cases of sustainable energy policy-making and their governance via applying a specific theory. After making conclusions for the Dutch and Swedish action plans, other EU countries could also use them for their own benefit while preparing their renewable energy goals. The research question in this study is, therefore, the following:

To what extent do the Governance Capabilities have an impact on the ability of the Swedish and Dutch governance systems to deal with sustainable energy as a wicked problem within their

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1.3 Research design and methodology

The answer to this explanatory question was searched with the help of qualitative, small-N data collection method. The information throughout the study was gathered mainly via governmental documents, media sources, as well as public statements from Swedish and Dutch ministers related to the renewable energy action plans. Hence, working with documents was the primary data collection approach that has been of value for this research. In order to analyze the data collected, testing of a specific theory was done during the document investigation. Hence, the data analysis section throughout the study included comparative and within-case approach for process-tracing of two governmental policies creation and implementation.

1.4 Research outline

This paper starts with an explanation of the most relevant theory in the field of sustainable energy and its governance, as well as its importance as a wicked problem. The theoretical chapter leads to hypothetical assumptions and causal mechanisms that have been discovered which helped to construct the conceptual framework of the research. After that, the next part focusses on explaining the design, methodology for data collection and data analysis and a discussion of the reliability and validity aspects of the study. The subsequent chapter takes two separate directions. A case description is the first part of the empirical results that have been discovered. Secondly, presenting the results for the Dutch and Swedish renewable energy governance systems is the next element of the empirical findings. After reporting the results from the study, an analytical section explains the relationship between the theoretical assumptions and the outcomes from the research. In other words, the analysis chapter evaluates whether the initial hypotheses have been confirmed or rejected. Additionally, a concluding section summarizes the separate research chapters and contributes to answering the main research question. Lastly, all references throughout the study have been documented in a bibliographical list at the end of this research.

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2.

Theory

2.1 Literature review

2.1.1 Wicked problems

Many scholars define wicked problems as complex issues for which there are no definitive solutions which implies many considerations about what governments and policy-makers should do in order to cope with them (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016; Endl, 2017; Incropera, 2015; Rittel & Webber, 1973). Therefore, the complexity of such problems causes difficulties in the decision-making process and challenges the work of those concerned with dealing with them. On the other hand, other authors are extremely passionate about the role of public administration in dealing with problems which affect the society as a whole (Howlett, Ramesh & Perl, 2009). Considering the two dimensions of policy-making (political and technical) as suggested by Howlett, Ramesh and Perl ( 2009), they represent an essential part for all decisions that are made with the goal of handling complex problems.

To start with, the wickedness of such problems comes, firstly, from the exact formulation of the problem (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016; Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Rittel & Webber, 1973). Rittel and Webber (1973) have analyzed that wicked problems are an attempt to solve complex dilemmas which poses cumbersome for what the problem is in reality. What it means for wicked subjects is the fact that there is no consensus between stakeholders about the definition of the problem, because today’s perspective might be different from yestersday’s (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016). Moreover, it is not yet known if a proposed action is actually working when the problem is not identified clearly, due to its complex social and scientific nature (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016; Endl, 2017). This element of wicked problems is connected to the political dimension which Howlett, Ramesh and Perl (2009) describe as very important in the policy-making process. Most of the time policy-makers try to find the balance between goals and instruments they use in order to achieve them, and the political dimension defines that not all actors have the same definition of the problem (Howlett, Ramesh & Perl, 2009). Not only does it create difficulties in naming normal problems (Rittel & Webber, 1973), but it is also the case with wicked questions (Candel, Breeman & Termeer,

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2016). This occurs, because the definition that all stakeholders put on the problem defines what kind of instruments could be implemented to cope with it, correspondingly. Hence, there is a disagreement about the exact definition of such a problem which is the first factor that describes wicked problems from public administration’s point of view.

Secondly, problems which are defined as wicked have an interesting feature of not having an immediate solution as Rittel and Webber (1973) describe in their article. Even after the implementation of certain actions, there is no guarantee that the problem is indeed dealt with as there might be new problem definitions or other changes that arise on the table as decsribed by some scholars in the field (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016; Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Rittel & Webber, 1973). Continous changes in the features of the sustainable problem is showing that there are always unpredictable areas which impact the whole process (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016). What it means for public administrators and especially for policy-makers is that wicked problems cannot be provided with answers on the spot, because any proposed action could have alternative results which are contrary to what was initially desired (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016; Rittel & Webber, 1973). If a possible action seems suitable for the specific problem today, it can have negative consequences tomorrow and create opposite outcomes than previously wanted. In addition, other scholars also emphasize this aspect of wicked problems, due to the fact that such issues are extremely complex (Endl, 2017). Endl (2017) suggests that wicked problems should be connected to more adaptive and creative solutions, because purely technical perspective does not deal with them. Here public policy-making is again touched, because using certain means to achieve specific goals has both technical, but also a political dimension (Howlett, Ramesh & Perl, 2009). Considering only the technical part of the problem is not enough, because the political and, more importantly, the social element always plays a role.

Thirdly, talking about solutions for wicked problems is like an oxymoron, because solutions in their true meaning are almost impossible for subjects which are very complex. In the case of wicked problems no one knows what is exactly required, thereof, a solution is not even the most suitable term. This phenomenon occures, due to the fact that there are changes not only in the characteristics of the problem, but also in the actors’ demands over the issue (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016; Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015). Not only does it affect how the

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problem is defined, but changing demands are determinant for which actions to be implemented. This is shown again by Rittel and Webber’s explanation that solutions can be measued either as “good enough” instead of saying they are “true” or “false” (1973, p.163). The complication here is again that many actors are involved and they all have different explanations of what might be good and what might be bad for the issue that is considered (Incropera, 2015). Followed by Rittel and Webber’s aspect about “true” and “false” solutions (1973), Incropera (2015) emphasizes that objective evaluation of a solution is defined by how people identify it. Moreover, the more stakeholders are involved in analyzing the consequences of a solution, the more difficult it becomes to state whether an action was right or wrong (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016; Incropera, 2015). Incropera (2015) also describes that societal values are affecting the problem and the possible actions for dealing with it. Therefore, the social aspect involves all psychological and cognitive evaluations of the stakeholders regarding the implemented actions or instruments. Hence, many different opinions might be given not only to the problem definition, but also to the proposed solutions in terms of changing demands.

Fourthly, there is a big difference between normal and wicked problems, because people who deal with such issues almost never know whether the problem has been indeed coped with, as already explained. Wicked problems do not follow a concrete criteria that tame problems have (Peters, 2017; Rittel & Webber, 1973). As a result, when stakeholders are not sure whether a specific action is dealing with the problem, then stagnations might occur (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016). Such considerations might be the reason for the whole process to stop which is not a solution for global issues as sustainability. In addition, other scholars also added that policy-makers have troubles with analyzing the dimensions of the problem, which makes it a wicked one (Peters, 2017). Peters (2017) emphasized that wicked problems have not their roots in the policy-making field, but in the planning area. This is a contributing conclusion of Rittel and Webber’s (1973) proposition that wicked issues do not posses “stopping rule” (p. 162). In other words, the planning is as important as understanding the true nature of wicked problems. As there are no definite answers to a wicked problem, then stakeholders do not know if their actions are dealing with the issue or it is just an attempt to improve it. Such stagnations are, thereof, a signal of unproductive processes that could prevent a policy or program from achieving positive results.

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Finally, many authors say that any initiative to cope with wicked issues has consequences for other, interrelated areas which determine that many scales are involved (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016). Bueren, Klijn and Koppenjan (2003), Grunig (2013) and Rittel and Webber (1973) all mention that actions towards a wicked problem have permament and inevitable consequences. Grunig (2013) explains that understanding wicked problems is all about understanding public relations. One very important point is that solutions to ill-defined issues are not only costly (Grunig, 2013), but they might have changeless consequences for various stakeholders. Furthermore, the irreversibility of solutions can cost even more if the outcomes are not as desired. Rittel and Webber (1972, p.163) have named this element of wicked problems as a “one-shot operation” which clearly points out the importance of careful evaluation of all possibilities, scales and governance levels at hand. Accordingly, wicked problems are connected with many other issues which makes the solutions even more difficult. As a result, government decision-makers and other policy-makers have almost an impossible task to find the most appropriate, cheap and fast actions to cope with a wicked problem, because of its connectedness with other temporal, spatial or jurisdictional levels (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016).

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2.1.2 Renewable energy and sustainable development

Nowadays, sustainable development is one of the hot topics for the society. Climate changes have occurred more and more in the last couple of years and that is why sustainability is seen as the correct way to overcome future dramatic changes (UN, 2019). One of the key areas which are advancing in the field of sustainability is renewable energy. The term renewable energy has gained popularity since sustainability became essential for preserving the Earth for future generations (UN, 2018). Renewable energy is a concept that group together energy supply from solar, hydro/water, biomass, wind, geothermal and wave power (Jefferson, 2006; Kirchev & Genchev, 2012). All these ways of energy generation are considered renewable as they do not deplete natural resources, such as coal, fossil fuels and other finite sources of the planet. Moreover, Jefferson (2006) discusses that the balance between energy efficiency and effectiveness is a key determinant that will affect sustainable development in a positive way. Kirchev and Genchev (2012) also emphasize the need for clean, qualitative, affordable and economically reliable energy that can satisfy both the needs of humans and protect the environment from severe pollution and depletion of its natural treasures.

In order to achieve good results in sustainable development, governments, businesses and all other stakeholders need to eliminate environmentally unfriendly energy generation, but also to protect the economic and human considerations. These elements are discussed by many scholars since renewable energy concept was developed and Dincer (2000) is one of those authors who hold the opinion that renewable energy is the correct path to sustainability. Not only does he evaluate the role of stakeholders, but the author also describes the impact that we, as humans, have on the Planet (Dincer, 2000). That is why renewable energy is a new way to consider energy production via infinite sources which is thereof, not harmful for the environment.

Here comes the concept of responsibility. The work of Jefferson (2006) shows that even with high ambitions put by many countries to rely on renewable energy supplies, the results are still behind positive. The Kyoto Protocol, which plays the role of an obligatory body for improving environmental conditions, is an example of how some countries are not willing to take full responsibility towards their actions (Rosen, 2015). Hence, responsibility is one of the most essential elements of achieving full sustainable development that needs to be acknowledged.

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2.1.3 Governance for sustainability

Sustainable development and Governance Capabilities Criteria

The term governance has expanded as a need of states to cooperate in order to solve global issues (Rosenau, 1995). Globalization that we all witness, with its advantages and disadvantages, is causing a change in the governing structure of many countries (Rosenau, 1995). An important area which was affected by globalization is the environment. Technological advancements, industrialization and economic development had lead to global changes in temperatures, sea water levels and other natural anomalies which impact human lives (UN, 2019). Because of these negative changes, a new approach is required, so that further degradation is prevented. The so called sustainable development arose as a term that both companies and governments are now adopting as one of their main missions (Kopnina, 2015). On the other hand, sustainability is a global issue that requires cooperation between various stakeholders, public and private, which Rosenau (1995) emphasized in his work about global governance. Cooperation and mutual help are said to be advantageous for global issues, such as sustainability, because specific knowledge is exchanged between different actors.

When talking about sustainable development, several authors have worked towards analyzing governance for sustainbility. Candel, Breeman & Termeer (2016) show a specific case of a sustainable issue for which governance played an important role. In their paper, the authors use five conditions which affect the governance for wicked problems (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016). In addition, Candel, Breeman and Termeer (2016, p.794), Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman and Stiller (2015, p.703) and Termeer and Dewulf (2014, p.52), claim that governance for any wicked problem should be devoted to achieving “small wins”. These small wins represent slight, but gradual progress of a program, policy or an initiative for copying with wicked issues. Thus, the partial presence of each individual capability or the balance between them is from essence in cases of sustainable challenges’ governance. Candel, Breeman and Termeer (2016, p.794) describe this balance as a “meta-capability” that should be searched while analyzing a governance system’s ability for dealing with complex problems. In sum, the Governance Capabilities Criteria is presented as an approach that evaluates governance for sustainable development as a gradual, interrelated process of five capabilities.

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The governance capabilities criteria start with analyzing the problem interpretation or problem framing as a first point that cause troubles for actors devoted to the issue at stake (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016; Rittel & Webber, 1973). How the problem is governed becomes a challenge already at the beginning of the process with evaluating the governance system’s reflexivity. Reflexivity has been presented by several authors as an important ability to be able to acknowledge the various definitions that are put on the specific wicked problem (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Termeer & Dewulf, 2014). Moreover, reflexivity is a capability that has been researched for many years by other scholars as well (Endl, 2017; Waddock, 2013), who emphasized its importance for any company, organization or institution. Analyzing how reflexive an institution, government policy or any other program is towards different framings, therefore, has an essential impact on the stakeholders and the outcomes of the policy.

After that, there is an issue connected to changes in the problem framing and the endless surprises that accompany the issue. Here comes the concept of resilience which Candel, Breeman and Termeer (2016) used in their article about the European Commission’s ability to be adaptive to changing and unpredictable conditions. Resilience has been also discussed by Endl (2017) where he put the attention on the leadership as a factor influencing the process of adaptation to changing circumstances. System resilience is also a component that impacts the governance, due to the fact that it shows adaptation to social and ecological changes (Waddock, 2013). Good leadership, flexibility, adaptability and proper management are all concepts that play a role in how resilient a governance system is.

Thirdly, an action might be right for some actors, but wrong for others, depending on their own preferences and demands. The capability that is from importance here is the responsiveness towards all stakeholders’ demands which are additionally strengtned by the media, political or social attention (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016). Being responsive to the public is extremely important for showing that the wishes of all actors are satisfied with the proposed actions addressed at the problem. But achieving full responsiveness is a difficult task because the political and societal dimensions of the wicked issue contain numerous parties which might differ in their desires.

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The fourth essential challenge for governance for sustainable development as a wicked problem is the presence of stagnations which are caused by uncertainties about proposed or implemented initiatives as already mentioned (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016). Revitalization is the ability which is said to be dealing with this challenge, because it involves observation of any ineffective action or pattern that block the whole process (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Termeer & Dewulf, 2014). Hence, revitalization’s role is to be able to identify and discover when there are not working or blocked processes that hinder the main goals of a plan or program. Lastly, governannce for sustainability is influenced by many other sub-problems that are connected to the main issue. These are known as “scale interactions” (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016, p.790) that cause threats for the correct governing of the problem. Re-scaling is the term which is used for such challenges (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Termeer & Dewulf, 2014). It is shown that different scales within the main problem are determining the scope of the proposed initiative. When there are many levels involved, then the decisions should be more flexible and adaptive to all of them in order to eliminate any differences between various levels.

The above shown capabilities are considered a framework for governance for sustainable problems. The Governance Capabilities Criteria (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Termeer & Dewulf, 2014) as a mean to evaluate whether programs, policies or other initiatives are dealing with wicked problems is a new approach that has been used in several cases of sustainable issues (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016). The balance between the five abilities, thereof, shows that small steps are very important for the governance for sustainable development and working towards them is the right way for improving renewable energy.

Corporate Social Responsibility and Leadership

Other authors also have their role in examining sustainability as a phenomenon that needs good governance. The concept of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) was highly discussed in Kopnina’s (2015) Sustainable Business book where the author explains the importance of being responsible towards the society, economy and the Earth. The triple bottom line, as shown in her work is composed by the three Ps: people, planet, profit (Kopnina, 2015). Caring for all of them is a condition for increasing sustainability via dealing with wicked issues. In that sense,

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governance for sustainability includes taking into account not only the stakeholders, but all other affected areas, such as the environment and the economic side of the picture. If any of them is neglected, then sustainability will not be ensured in a long-term perspective.

Lastly, another group of scholars in the sustainable development field talks about the essence of leadership. One of them is Waddock (2013) who shows that wicked problems are so difficult, that only good leaders can handle them. Leadership in the case of sustainable development, no matter what kind of sustainable issue we are talking about, is crucial for eliminating the numerous challenges that affect the progress. Hence, suitable leadership strategies is a crucial condition for providing good governance for sustainable issues and Candel, Breeman and Termeer (2016) discuss such strategies in all capabilities that are presented in their article. Leadership is not only important inside an organization, but good leadership is required when governance contains many different stakeholders, both internal and external.

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2.2 Theoretical and conceptual framework

Following the numerous literature that has been found for the topic of sustainable energy and governance for sustainable energy, the team of Rittel and Webber (1973) is considered the founder of the concept of wicked problems. In addition, Candel, Breeman and Termeer (2016), Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman and Stiller (2015), Termeer and Dewulf (2014) are used with their contribution to the field of governance for sustainable development. Based on the concepts that have been explained in the previous section, it is concluded that the main conceptual framework is composed by the Governance Capabilities Criteria. Moreover, the important features of wicked problems will be touched upon all the time in order to analyze the relationship between the criteria and the progress of dealing with wicked problems. In that sense, the sustainable wicked issue is contextualized as being complex, multi-layered, contested and ambiguous, according to the explanation of Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller (2015). In addition, the figure below summarizes the essential components of wicked problems which are important for this research.

Wicked

problems

Different problem definitions Unpredictable changes Various demands Unproductive processes Numerous scale diversity

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2.2.2 Governance Capabilities Criteria and “small wins”

Furthermore, in order to investigate sustainable energy as a wicked problem in the Swedish and Dutch energy plans, the other key concepts in this research are taken from the Governance Capabilities Criteria as already discussed in details in the literature review. The most important terms include the five conditions introduced by Termeer and Dewulf (2014) and Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman and Stiller (2015). Therefore, all five requirements are conceptualized via using the terminology of Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman and Stiller (2015) and Termeer & Dewulf (2014) where the 5Rs are divided into three additional sub-elements, namely, the process of observing, acting and enabling within them. First of all, reflexivity is the ability to reflect to various framings of the sustainable energy problem; resilience is the level of adaptation of the governance system in response to new definitions of sustainable energy as well as other unpredictable changes; responsiveness is a governance capability to respond towards new societal demands about renewable energy; re-scaling concerns the level of government sensitivity against any additional interactions; revitalizing is the ability of actors involved in a certain policy to recognize unproductive processes that prevent the effectiveness of the program (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Termeer & Dewulf, 2014). Furthermore, the specific extensions (Toshkov, 2016) of the five capabilities are exactly the Swedish and Dutch energy plans to which the conditions above will be applied.

Furthermore, when talking about governance for sustainable energy, the small wins via gradual progress are considered as an overarching theory for the evaluation of the Swedish and Dutch governance systems’ capabilities. The small wins are examined by searching for presence of each capability and analyzing if there is a balance that contributes to a progress in the governance ability to handle the wicked problem of sustainable energy (Candel, Breeman & Termeer, 2016). In sum, the theoretical framework turns into a conceptual framework of public administration’s theories for governance for sustainable wicked problems, represented by governance capabilities and their balance for achieving small wins while dealing with the issue.

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2.2.3 Hypotheses & causal mechanism

The main theory for this study (Governance Capabilities Criteria) is focusing on reflexivity, responsiveness, resilience, revitalizing and re-scaling for which authors claim that if there is a balance between the five elements within a governmental program, then the result will be dealing with the wickedness of the sustainable issue (Termeer, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Termeer & Dewulf, 2014). In this paper this theory is tested based on the Swedish and Dutch Energy Plans documentations which determine the main strategy for operationalizing the concepts into causal conditions (Toshkov, 2016). The causal mechanism in this study suggests that variations in the main explanatory variable may cause differences in the outcome (Toshkov, 2016) which is the governance ability to deal with sustainable wicked problems. Therefore, two main hypotheses are created after reviewing the most important theories for this case-study:

H1: If there is a balance between the components of the Governance Capabilities Criteria within a governmental policy, then the ability of the governance system to deal with sustainable energy as a wicked problem is increased.

H2 (alternative): The presence and balance between the components of the Governance Capabilities Criteria within a governmental policy do not impact the ability of the governance system to deal with sustainable energy as a wicked problem.

After looking into these two hypotheses, it is said that the Governance Capability Criteria is the independent side of the process, thereof, the independent variable. On the other spectrum is the dependent factor, which in this case is represented as the ability of the governance system to deal with the wickedness of sustainable energy in Sweden and the Netherlands. The main independent variable consists of five separate instruments which together affect the dependent variable. The figure below shows graphically the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent part of the research.

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Figure 2: Hypothetical assumption

The equal presence of reflexivity, resilience, responsiveness, rescaling and revitalization within the Dutch and Swedish Energy Plans impacts the ability of the specific governmental policy to deal with sustainable energy. More importantly, the balance between the five concepts is a determinant to consider that a governance system is actually copying with the wicked problem. In other words, the balance between these five elements of the independent side has a reflection on how and to what extent a program can cope with complex issues, such as sustainable energy. Thus, the dependent variable, namely the ability of the governance system to deal with wicked problems is measured with the help of a “ratio/balance between the presence and absence of specific skills, willingness and capacities” that enable the system to cope with the wicked problem of sustainable energy (Candel, Breeman & Stiller, 2016, p.794). The exact formulation of a balance in this research is presented by having certain capabilities in the specific governance system for renewable energy. Each capability is expressed as absent (-), low (+), moderate (++)

Governance system’s ability to

deal with wicked problems Dependent variable Reflexivity Independent variable Revitalization Independent variable Resilience Independent variable Responsiveness Independent variable Rescaling Independent variable

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and high (+++). These scales construct a relationship that is explained in the following way. When a program, policy or a plan’ governance system has a positive, balanced presence of most capabilities, either as being moderate or high, then the system is said to be dealing with a wicked problem. If the balance is negative, either having absent or low presence of capabilities, then the system is not copying with the wicked problem of renewable energy in a proper way. After capabilities’ distribution is analyzed, then the result of the dependent variable is again described as absent, low, moderate or high (-, +; ++; +++). Table 3 in this study is a graphical explanation of how the analysis was expected to be fulfilled and how capabilities were investigated as present or absent in the two cases. In sum, the options (the combinations) between the five capabilities described below are affecting the governance systems of both countries to handle renewable energy as a wicked problem.

Capability Present in

country A

Present in country B Result

Reflexivity -; +; ++ or +++ -; +; ++ or +++ Low, moderate or high ability for dealing with wicked problem

Responsiveness -; +; ++ or +++ -; +; ++ or +++ Low, moderate or high ability for dealing with wicked problem

Resilience -; +; ++ or +++ -; +; ++ or +++ Low, moderate or high ability for dealing with wicked problem

Re-scaling -; +; ++ or +++ -; +; ++ or +++ Low, moderate or high ability for dealing with wicked problem

Revitalizing -; +; ++ or +++ -; +; ++ or +++ Low, moderate or high ability for dealing with wicked problem

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3. Research design & data

3.1 Research design

This small-N, comparative research analyzes two governmental strategies; thereof, it is a two-case study. The comparative approach focuses on cross and within-two-case analysis of the Swedish and Dutch energy plans in order to show all important details that affect the outcomes of the research. An in-depth evaluation of the five capabilities criteria is applied, so that a deductive approach is taken to measure whether two national renewable programs are actually fulfilling it to cope with a sustainable wicked problem. In that sense, a process-tracing of the creation and implementation of the two Energy Plans is conducted via examining governmental policies and public statements from policy makers and other affected stakeholders. Furthermore, this comparative study is explanatory, because the main research objective is to explain how certain governmental strategies are dealing with the wickedness of sustainable energy based on the balance of specific criteria. Therefore, two real-life cases (Swedish and Dutch 2010-2020 National Renewable Energy Action Plans and Swedish and Dutch draft proposals for 2030) are examined via theory-testing of the Governance Capabilities Criteria (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Termeer & Dewulf, 2014). In addition, the research is following a retrospective approach, because it evaluates how the five capabilities impacted the governance system’s ability to cope with a sustainable problem, so that the causes of effects are considered (Toshkov, 2016, p.156). Thus, the causal mechanism is presented by tracing the process of what and to what extent the criteria (X-variable) impacts the governance system ability to deal with a sustainable issue (Y-variable). The relationship between these two variables is, thereof, determined as a mechanistic causal explanation of a specific phenomenon (Toshkov, 2016, p.150). In other words, how the causes (the Governance Capabilities) impact the effects (the ability of the governance system to deal with a wicked problem) is examined in this case.

3.2 Units of analysis

The Swedish and Dutch Renewable Energy Action Plans are taken as the main units of analysis, because the relevant population includes the National Energy Action Plans of all European Union member states and the two cases are extracted on the logic of Most Similar Systems Design

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(Toshkov, 2016). The two policies are expected to vary only in the main explanatory factors (the five capabilities) and the outcomes (the actual ability to achieve the renewable energy targets) are affected according to the variations in the independent variables (Toshkov, 2016). Thereof, assessing the ability of the two governmental strategies to cope with the wickedness of sustainable energy is the result researched in this case. The Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD) strategy controls for certain conditions while the independent instruments vary. In addition, variations in the independent variable lead to changes in the dependent side. In other words, all control variables (GDP per capita, Government structure, EU status, having or not a Sustainable Energy Action Plan) are similar and constant while the governance capabilities are expected to be different. Correspondingly, the ability of the two policies to cope with the wickedness of sustainable energy is the outcome that also differs, due to variations in the 5Rs. The table below shows the summary of all control, independent and dependent variables.

Case Control variable Control variable Control variable Control variable Independent variable-X Dependent variable-Y GDP per capita Government structure EU membership Action Plan Governance Capabilities balance Governance system’s ability to deal with sustainable energy as a wicked problem Dutch Action Plan 53,442 USD 48,223 USD Constitutional monarchy

yes yes Low to

Moderate Low to Moderate Swedish Action Plan 48,223 USD Constitutional monarchy

yes yes Moderate to

High

Moderate to High

Figure 4: Most Similar Systems Design approach: dependent, control and independent variables, (Trading Economics, 2019)

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3.3 Data collection methods

Because of the small-N approach throughout this study, government plans’ documentation from both countries were gathered in order to test the specific theory. These documents contain Dutch and Swedish Energy Action Plans for 2010-2020, national draft programs for 2030 as a primary source of information and public statements and media sources in order to back up the data as supplementary data. Hence, working with documents and analyzing them was completed in order to trace back the process of creating and implementation of two specific policies. In this way rich, qualitative data was gathered and evaluated. For the purpose of triangulating the data, two kinds of sources were used, as already mentioned. First of all, primary sources were from essence in terms of governmental documents, namely the National Energy Action Plans of Sweden and the Netherlands, as well as the Draft 2030 proposals of both countries. Moreover, official public statements in newspapers made by Swedish and Dutch Ministries in the field of energy and several research articles and reports helped to identify the most important literature for the governance for sustainable energy. As such, important data was gathered from academic articles containing terminology of the specific theory (governance capabilities criteria), textbooks in the field of Public Administration (Public Policy, Renewable Energy Sources) and in the field of Sustainable Development (Sustainable Business and others), and several newspaper and research articles for the topic into consideration. The data collected via literature review lead to the construction of a theoretical framework that identifies the models and theories from previously conducted studies and data from several websites helped to analyze the main hypotheses via in-depth evaluation of all details gathered. Below is a table with a summary of the primary and supporting sources that were from importance in this case-study. Their origin is also presented and the strategy for finding the sources is the so called “snowball effect” starting from the main website of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals that lead to a group of other governmental areas in the online world, including the European Commission website for National Energy Plans. The EC website leads to the official links of the main sources of data (the Dutch and Swedish National Action Plans) as well as their Draft Proposals for 2030. Moreover, due to the multi-layered problem definition, many actors were involved in the policy-making. For that reason, documentations of the draft energy plans of Sweden and the Netherlands were from a huge need, because they provide substantial data about consultations with EU officials and other

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EU member states as well as national environmental groups and regional governmental representatives. Moreover, the most prominent literature for the topic of sustainable energy as a wicked problem was found with the help of several sources. The Leiden University collections, together with various course manuals helped me to find the most essential authors who have left their trace in the academic world. In addition, many additional sources were provided within sustainable challenges’ capstone course which were of great help during the analysis. Other scholarly important articles were found in different databases, such as worldcat.org, proquest and Google scholar.

In sum, documental gathering was the main data collection strategy that helped to investigate two important sustainable plans which have an impact on a huge population. Taking them as a main primary documentation is the basis for the analysis of the governance criteria framework and the rest is from the secondary/supporting documents which were also used in the analysis. Below, a summary of the main sources is applied, but the details of all other sources are provided in the results section. As there are more than fifty sources which were used in this research, only the most used ones are explained in this table.

Figure 5: Main data collection sources

Primary sources of data collection

Governmental

publications and reports

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Swedish National Renewable Energy Plan 2020 Dutch National Renewable Energy Plan 2020 Swedish draft renewable energy proposal for 2030 Dutch draft renewable energy proposal for 2030

Academic articles

The European Commission's ability to deal with wicked problems: an in-depth case study of the governance of food security

Coping with the wicked problem of climate adaptation across scales: The Five R Governance Capabilities

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Enabling

Governance Capabilities for Dealing Wisely With Wicked Problems Unravelling the Central State

Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning

Main supporting sources

Governmental

publications and progress reports

Swedish energy progress report Dutch energy progress report

Official public speeches and statements in the media

By the Swedish Minister for Policy Coordination and Energy

By the Swedish Minister for International Development Cooperation and Climate

By the Dutch Minister for Economic Affairs

By the Dutch Renewable Energy Action Plan policy-makers

Other media sources

Dutch News, Central Bureau for Statistics, The Guardian, Reuters, Bloomberg, Independent, Energy Reporters, EEA, European Commission, Government of the Netherlands, Government Offices of Sweden, International Energy Agency and others

Text books

Research Design in Political Science Sustainable Business

Renewable Energy Sources

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3.4 Data analysis methods

First of all, all collected data during this research was evaluated with the help of comparative analysis. Looking back into the renewable energy policies by two governments within the European Union gave the opportunity to analyze the actual process by comparing their governance capabilities to deal with a wicked problem. The comparison was devoted to analyze how the Dutch and Swedish governance systems are actually responding to the governance capabilities criteria and conclusions were made whether they are coping with complex problems as renewable energy. Secondly, the comparative approach was strengthened with a within-case analysis of the two policies. Looking into the details was an important step not only to compare the two national programs, but it helped to see how each individual energy plan was adopted in accordance to the national needs.

3.5 Limitations

3.5.1 Validity and reliability

Higher internal validity and low external validity are visible in this research, because generalization is not the main goal, but an in-depth analysis is searched as the energy topic is a complex, wicked problem. The causal mechanism for this small-N case study ensures rich, qualitative data, but without the ability to generalize in a broader context that can be applied to all governmental strategies. On the other hand, there is possible empirical generalization (Toshkov, 2016), because what is found for Sweden and the Netherlands can be applied for other NORDICS or Western European countries which share some common features. The reliability is also moderate in this case, because if a repetition of the same study is done in another period, for example in five years from now, the National Action Plans for both cases could be amended. But after considering the specific implemented Plans for 2020, replicability should bring the same outcomes. Lastly, reverse causality and alternative explanations are addressed by the usage of several methods, including, document analysis and theory testing from different sources of data, such as reports, but also public statements and speeches from Swedish and Dutch Energy policy-makers. This also increases the validity of the study because further within-case comparison is done in addition to the cross-case evaluation (Toshkov, 2016).

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3.5.2 Biases

When talking about a comparative case study, there are always some threats involved. A summary of all possible risks while analyzing the Dutch and Swedish Renewable Energy Action Plans is implemented below.

 Selection bias

While analyzing two sustainable energy plans, the goal is to make a theoretical contribution to the current literature and increase the practical relevance for other interested parties. For that reason, I have looked at the independent variable and not the dependent side in order to select the cases. The goal is, therefore, qualitative, so that the choice of Sweden and the Netherlands are indeed done on purpose, because testing the theory of Governance Capabilities is the aim. Selection bias always occurs in small-N analysis, but the context is the important factor in this case. Therefore, selecting on the independent variable (Governance Capabilities Criteria) is the key in this research in order to eliminate the question of why these two cases have been chosen.

 Generalization

This small-n research design will not aim in making generalization for the broad population, but rather the context will be analyzed. Detailed, rich data will be searched in order to make valuable understanding for two EU member states who have implemented plans to increase or not their sustainable energy production and consumption. Therefore, generalization is not the main goal, but the two contexts are from essence.

 Possible omitted variables

Controlling for certain variables which are constant during the analysis hides the risk of omitting other variables which might be the reason for the high or low governance ability to deal with a sustainable energy as a wicked problem. Therefore, it should be acknowledged that during the

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process and because of possible researcher bias, some variables might be omitted due to either not knowing about them or because of case selection risks.

3.5.3 Time-scales

Another limitation that needs to be addressed is the fact that the research started in January 2019 and continued for a period of five consecutive months. This limits the researcher to examine more cases in order to evaluate the biggest differences between all EU countries’ Energy Plans. Time is, therefore, a consideration which affects the whole process of data collection via limiting the options for digging even deeper into more units of analysis. Taking into account the time-scale is an important factor which determines how much data could possibly be gathered for the study.

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3.6 Operationalization of main concepts

The ability of Swedish and Dutch governance systems to deal with sustainable energy as a wicked problem is operationalized as the balance between five governance capabilities to cope with renewable energy challenges in both countries. Wicked problems have five characteristics which compose the five conditions to deal with them. In this way, wicked problems have indicators, such as multi-levelness, complexity and changing definitions.

3.6.2 Governance Capabilities Criteria

In order to measure the other parts of the hypothetical assumptions, namely the independent variables, the concepts need to be connected with observable indicators. The main terms that played a role in the research process (5Rs) are operationalized in the next section, so that it becomes clear which specific instruments have been researched in the study. Reflexivity, resilience, responsiveness, rescaling and revitalization are divided into three additional sub-concepts which describe that each term from the Governance Capabilities Criteria is examined in its roots (Breeman, 2019). Thus, the concepts of observing, acting and enabling are argued to be extremely relevant in this case. This happens due to the fact that the governance capabilities are evaluated as whether policy and decision-makers are able to carefully observe complex problems and initiate actions when they are identified via enabling mechanisms provided within the governance system that is dealing with the specific problem (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Termeer & Dewulf, 2014). The following section operationalizes the main concepts via a small table and further details are provided as text after the table.

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Capability Enable Act Observe

Reflexivity Measure the feedback of acknowledging the various definitions of renewable energy and satisfaction of all stakeholders towards the actions taken to address different framings Discussions about different problem framing and willingness of stakeholders to exchange information for different framings

Observe the various frames for renewable energy expressed by different actors and stakeholders

Resilience Governance system’s

(stakeholders and policy-makers) level of adaptation and learning points

Feedback sessions

and learning

practices, scientific proof for energy impact, energy efficiency, cost-benefit analysis, acting towards political and legal changes

Observe changing trends in renewable energy sector, think out-of-the-box.

Observe political, social, legal and other

scientific and

environmental changes

Responsiveness Measure whether different

governance levels were accessible to the public, evaluate how present the government is for social and business concerns and whether all stakeholders’ demands have been addressed in a timely manner

Evaluate how many, debates, speeches, feedback sessions have been conducted among political and social sectors and their variance in demands and wishes

Observe media,

political and business attention towards renewable energy problem and their changing social demands

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Rescaling Measuring the satisfaction of all interconnected actors within and outside the policy making and analyzing how many times schedules have been adopted according to different scales

Address the number and quality of the small problems, as well as debates and time schedules concerning the

problem into

consideration

Observe the multi-levelness of the problem; analyze the sub-problems, scales

and additional

interactions

Revitalization Ensure interactive process that include internal, but also external actors which contribute to eliminating of stagnations Searching for compromises in order to eliminate unproductive patterns which stagnate the process

Observe unproductive processes and patterns

during the

implementation of certain measures towards the problem into consideration

Figure 6: Operationalization of Governance Capabilities Criteria

 Reflexivity

Observing reflexivity

First of all, reflexivity is the government capability that analyses how certain problems have been framed and how policies and programs reflect on the different framing (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015). Moreover, observing also includes how many actors are concerned with the problem. Thus, observing whether there is a stakeholder analysis plays a crucial role in this case. Such an analysis enables looking into all actors involved, such as Dutch and Swedish government officials, business representatives and social groups. In this way it becomes easier to observe all different frames and definitions which are on the stage and measure the amount of actors involved, their problem framing and how sustainable energy has been discussed among them (Breeman, 2019). Another point for determining how reflexive a governmental program is

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include which problem definitions are leading. In this way, an estimation of which frames are most famous among stakeholders is made.

Acting in reflexivity

Second of all, it is from essence not only to observe all possible frames of renewable energy and the stakeholders, but it is important to look at the willingness of all those actors to discuss the different definitions in order to consult all opinions. The acting process while examining reflexivity in this case is operationalized via measuring whether the stakeholders are willing to exchange information about the various problem frames and therefore, to compare the differences between them if there are such (Breeman, 2019). If this is done for all problem definitions, then policy-making groups could act in accordance with all kinds of problem interpretations.

Enabling reflexivity

The third part of operationalizing reflexivity is about whether actions towards all stakeholders and their frames have been indeed conducted. This means enabling of feedback, both from internal and external actors. In other words, enabling in this context measures how satisfied the stakeholders are with the issue framing and measuring how many initiatives have been considered in the process (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Breeman, 2019). The indicators include measuring internal, but also external feedback and how the core decision-making group has reflected on them.

 Resilience

Observing resilience

When there are changes to the problem definition or any new trends arise on the stage of sustainable energy issue, then it becomes essential to adapt to those changes (Endl, 2017; Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015). The governance capability to adapt to such amendments is firstly connected to observing scientific analysis which shows the best practices in the area of renewable energy (Breeman, 2019). In this way, the policy into consideration (Action Plans) is analyzed as to what extent the policy makers are able to think out-of-the box when the trends are changing (Breeman, 2019). Science here is essential, because energy is a topic that affects humans, environment and economic aspects. Furthermore, experts are those actors which

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devote their time to analyze renewable energy versus normal energy generation. So, adaptation to changes in the problem framing should be connected with observing scientific analysis. Considering the scientific side of the story is, thereof, crucial for observing the resilience, as a governance capability for dealing with complex problems. In addition, an observation of legal or political changes is also important in order to see if the system is indeed resilient. Environmental changes are also a point for observation, as natural disasters are a topic that needs careful preparation.

Acting in resilience

The acting element in resilience is associated with measuring the level of learning from feedback sessions, best practices and scientific proof about sustainable energy effects on the people, planet and profit (Kopnina, 2015). Indicators which can be used here include initiatives to learn from external stakeholders which might have more knowledge about the changing characteristics of the problem at stake (Breeman, 2019). In addition, making resilience a measurable term requires analyzing actual discussions and deliberations concerning unpredictable circumstances and surprises. Deliberations need good management practices which take feedback from discussions into consideration. Hence, acting means learning by trials and errors, due to the changing conditions which should be expected while dealing with wicked problems (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015).

Enabling resilience

In order to enable and more importantly evaluate the level of resilience, the core policy-makers, but also external stakeholders need to exercise willingness to change in times of contingencies and changing trends (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015; Breeman, 2019). Therefore, the indicators which are important here are the ability of the working teams to change, the number of different teams within the project (sustainable energy) and the diversity of the stakeholders that ensures thinking out-of-the-box approach. Lastly, leadership in the case of being resilient is essential. Not only good leadership influence proper team working, but it also represents responsibility for the undertaken actions. Responsibility is a term that Kopnina (2015) describe as an important step of increasing sustainability, but leadership is the factor that determines it.

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 Responsiveness

Observing responsiveness

Responsiveness is the third governance capability which looks at how responsive a governance system is within a specific policy towards changes in social demands (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015). Such demands include media attention about sustainable energy in Sweden and the Netherlands and political attention of high-level government officials which set the requirements for energy targets. Therefore, observing responsiveness is about measuring how the media perceive the problem of renewable energy, how much attention is put on it, what kind of political pressure is out there and how policy windows could be used in order to respond to the changing demands (Breeman, 2019). For example, the demand for renewable energy is increasing more and more in the last years in both countries, but there might be difference in how media present the issue. Moreover, while comparing the targets, there are huge differences between Swedish and Dutch Sustainable Energy Plans (European Commission, 2019a). On the other hand, it does not mean that the one of the countries is better than the other, but it is from importance how media sources and political attention is distributed. In that sense, responsiveness is the capability to observe all social demands about new forms of energy generation, energy efficiency and as an end goal, a new form of producing energy for households and the businesses. Observing responsiveness is also determined by the political dimension which affects the governance process (Howlett, Ramesh & Perl, 2009; Breeman, 2019). Therefore, political, societal and media attention are included as indicators for analyzing the level of responsiveness towards changes in demands.

Acting in responsiveness

What are the actual acting points to respond to changing demands in the society, politics and the media? The answer is to measure and analyze the media and political attention via mentioning how many debates, feedback sessions and focusing events are done with the publics in order to respond to their changing desires (Breeman, 2019). The quality of the response by the governance system is also linked to the overall level of responsiveness, because the type of response measures whether the system is ready to adapt when there are much pressure put on it (Termeer, Dewulf, Breeman & Stiller, 2015). Moreover, the quality is affected by how fast, when

Renewable Energy as a sustainable wicked problem: Analysis of the Dutch and Swedish National Energy Plans via Governance Capabilities Criteria