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(1)e long-term sustainability characteristics of these so-called projects are rarely considered during their planning and implementation. Despite the existence and buzz created by the annotation of sustainable development, in the region of SSA, it does seem like these de nitions are nonexistent.. Enhancing Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Without doubt the renewable energy (RE) sector in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is currently booming exponentially. More oen than not, these projects are designed as just “projects” thus leading to their failure in the shortest possible time. is can be easily seen from numerous already failed projects. Given that energy is the backbone of the economy in the region, the continuous use of unsustainable methods of energy generation coupled with the epileptic power supply and infrastructure, such circumstances cannot continue to prevail.. Enhancing Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: New Integrated Sustainability Mechanisms for Securing Substantial Benets of Renewable Energy Projects. is thesis develops and presents integrated sustainability mechanisms that should be considered by stakeholders participating in the development and implementation of RE projects in SSA. A bottom-up approach is utilized that investigates the failures of existing projects while presenting the current state of affairs. Multiple sustainability characteristics - that include location analysis, sustainable management, protection of infrastructure and societal bene ts - are presented and their application in the region is further executed. For any RE project implemented in the region of SSA to be successful, the integrated sustainability mechanisms presented in this thesis “must” be adopted.. Eugene Chidiebere Xavier Ikejemba. Enhancing Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa:. Eugene Chidiebere Xavier Ikejemba.

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(8) Prologue (A Realist Perspective). i.

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(98) "So many foreign companies and organizations visit us and carry out surveys on renewable energy and provide us with hopes of electrification. However, for so many years we have never heard from them and as such we are tired of hearing about development projects. We want the project to present itself".. 81.

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(126) Project Number. Project Location. N1 Nigeria N2 Nigeria N3 Nigeria N4 Nigeria N5 Nigeria N6 Nigeria N7 Nigeria N8 Nigeria N9 Nigeria N10 Nigeria G1 Ghana G2 Ghana G3 Ghana G4 Ghana K1 Kenya K2 Kenya K3 Kenya GA1 Gabon GA2 Gabon S1 South Africa T1 Tanzania T2 Tanzania M1 Mozambique M2 Mozambique E1 Ethiopia E2 Ethiopia E3 Ethiopia MA1 Malawi MA2 Malawi Key Public Infrastructure Methods Borehole Informal Inteviews Water Heater Formal Interviews Minor Connections Telephone Conversation Group Dialogue. Project Type. Physical Analysis. Method. Timeline. Street Light Public Hospital Public Office Street Light Street Light Public School Public Infrastructure Public Infrastructure Street Light Public Hospital Public Office Street Light Remote Village Off-Grid Public Infrastructure Remote Village Off-Grid Public Infrastructure Street Light Street Light Public Office Public Infrastructure Remote Village Off-Grid Public Infrastructure Public Infrastructure Street Light Public Infrastructure Public Infrastructure Street Light Street Light Remote Village Off-Grid. Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes. II, FI, GD FI, TC FI II, GD II II, GD II, FI FI, TC II, GD II, FI, GD FI FI, GD II, GD II, TC II, FI, GD FI, GD GD II, GD FI, TC FI II, GD FI, GD II, FI, TC TC, GD II, FI II, GD, TC TC, GD TC, GD II, TC. December 2015 - January 2016 February & March 2016 March 2016 December 2015 - January 2016 December 2015 - January 2016 January 2016 January 2016 March 2016 December 2015 - January 2016 February & March 2016 February 2016 March 2016 December 2015 - January 2016 March 2016 March 2016 February & March 2016 March & April 2016 February & March 2016 February & March 2016 December 2015 January 2016 January 2016 March & April 2016 April 2016 February - April 2016 February - April 2016 February - April 2016 March 2016 March 2016. Code II FI TC GD. 109.

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(164) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 147.

(165) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. . . . . . 148.

(166) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 149.

(167) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 150.

(168) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 151.

(169) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach.     . 152.

(170) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. . . . . . 153.

(171) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 154.

(172) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 155.

(173) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 156.

(174) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach.  0.5 0.2  0.15 0.5  0.11 0.2 0.09 0.1   0.1 0.05. 0.1 0.05 0.15 0.2 0.1 0.05  0.4 0.1 0.19 0.2 0.45 0.16  0.1 0.05 0.7 . 0.3. 157. 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.

(175) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. This yields in stage 4:. 0.176548. 0.146429. 0.163464 0.07444 0.439118. This yields in stage 4:. 0.187021. 0.198965 0.18331 0.106939 0.323765. 158.

(176) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 159.

(177) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 160.

(178) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 161.

(179) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach.   GI   SU  SA. SPv. SPt. LPv. 0.23. 0.35. 0.13. 0. 0.85. 0. 0.83. 0.17. 0. SPv SPt LPv   SPv 0.3 0.22 0.15   SPt 0.26 0.19 0.08   LPv 0 0.13 0.27  LPt 0.02 0.08 0.33   R 0.2 0.21 0.09.   GI   SU   SA.   SPv   SPt   LPv  LPt   R. LPt 0.28 0.39 0.53 0.5 0.32. LPt   0.3   0.15 0 .   SPv   SPt  LPv   LPt. SPv. SPt. LPv. LPt. R   0.57 0.29 0 0 0.14  0.08 0.53 0.05 0.09 0.24 0 0 0.5 0.4 0.1   0.13 0.09 0.22 0.44 0.13. R   0.06  0.08  0.07  0.08  0.18.   SPv   SPt   LPv  LPt   R. SPv. SPt. LPv. LPt. SPv. SPt. SPt. LPv. LPv. LPt. 0.20 0.13 0.17 0.38 0.27 0.18. 0.1. 0.33. 0.04 0.07 0.36 0.32 0.03 0.07 0.37 0.38 0.26 0.21 0.12 0.31. 0.07 0.04 0.09 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.18 0.14 0.03 0.02 0.13. 0.1. 0.07 0.07. 0.07. 0. SPv SPt LPv LPt R    SPv 0.39 0.36 0.07 0.11 0.07      SPt 0.24 0.41 0.04 0.14 0.17   LPv 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1     LPt 0.03 0.17 0.2 0.43 0.17 . LPt   0.18 0.45 0.08 0.3   0.12 0.73 0.04 0.12  0.67 0.17 0.17 0   SPv. 0.07 0.01 0.13 0.04. R   0.75 0.76   0.62  0.72   0.79 . R   0.14 0.13  0.21 0.15  0.1 .   SPv   SPt   LPv  LPt   R. 162. SPv. SPt. 0.02. 0. 0.04 0.06. 0.02. 0. 0.07. 0 0.01. LPv. LPt 0. 0.02 0.07 0.02 0. 0.06 0.03. 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03. R   0.88 0.9   0.9  0.9   0.9 .

(180) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 0.5556. SPv. SPt. 0.1944. LPv. LPt. R. 0.0833. 0.3611. SPv. SPt. 0.5138 0.0694 0.2223. 0.1945. 0.5278 0.0695 0.2083. 0.1804. 0.3473 0.1111 0.1736 0.1874. 0.2222. 0.3264 0.0903 0.2153 0.1459. 0.1840. 0.1735 0.1588 0.3903 0.0932. 0.1806. 0.1389 0.1945 0.3477 0.1385. 0.0484. 0.0279 0.1172 0.0825 0.7236. 0.0139. 0.0069 0.0554 0.0282 0.8958. 163. LPv. LPt. R.

(181) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. . . . . 164.

(182) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 165.

(183) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach.   SPv   SPt LPv   LPt. SPv. SPt. LPv. LPt. 0.39. 0.15. 0. 0. 0.26. 0.13. 0.03. 0.03. 0. 0 .2. 0. 0. 2. 0. 0.06. 0.19. 0.19. LPv. LPt. R   0.46  0.55 0. 6   0.56. SPv. SPt. R. 0.2137. 0.1265 0.0528 0.0667 0.5406.   SPv   SPt  LPv   LPt. SPv. 0.0406. 166. SPt. 0. SPv. SPt. LPv. LPt. 0.13. 0. 0. 0. 0.03. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.06. 0. R   0.87   0.97  1   0.94 . LPv. LPt. R. 0.013. 0. 0.9465.

(184) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 0.5556. 0.4. 0.3611. 0.4875 0.1125. 0.3478. 167. 0.6 0.0522. 0.0833.

(185) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. Table 6.6: State Probabilities with different Initial Stage Probabilities for no Interference. Base Case Case (i) case (ii). Motivation GI SU SA 0.5556 0.3611 0.083 0.4 0.4875 0.113 0.3478 0.6 0.052. SPv 0.1944 0.1837 0.1217. First Stage SPt LPv 0.5138 0.0694 0.5712 0.05 0.638 0.0435. 168. LPt 0.2223 0.1951 0.1968. SPv 0.0484 0.0488 0.0486. SPt 0.0279 0.028 0.028. Fourth Stage LPv LPt 0.1172 0.0825 0.1167 0.0817 0.1165 0.0819. R 0.7236 0.7245 0.7246.

(186) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. . . . . 169.

(187) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. . . . . . 170.

(188) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. . 171.

(189) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 172.

(190) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 173.

(191) Analyzing the Impact of Theft and Vandalism in Relation to the Sustainability of Renewable Energy Development Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Mathematical Analysis Approach. 174.

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(229) e long-term sustainability characteristics of these so-called projects are rarely considered during their planning and implementation. Despite the existence and buzz created by the annotation of sustainable development, in the region of SSA, it does seem like these de nitions are nonexistent.. Enhancing Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Without doubt the renewable energy (RE) sector in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is currently booming exponentially. More oen than not, these projects are designed as just “projects” thus leading to their failure in the shortest possible time. is can be easily seen from numerous already failed projects. Given that energy is the backbone of the economy in the region, the continuous use of unsustainable methods of energy generation coupled with the epileptic power supply and infrastructure, such circumstances cannot continue to prevail.. Enhancing Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: New Integrated Sustainability Mechanisms for Securing Substantial Benets of Renewable Energy Projects. is thesis develops and presents integrated sustainability mechanisms that should be considered by stakeholders participating in the development and implementation of RE projects in SSA. A bottom-up approach is utilized that investigates the failures of existing projects while presenting the current state of affairs. Multiple sustainability characteristics - that include location analysis, sustainable management, protection of infrastructure and societal bene ts - are presented and their application in the region is further executed. For any RE project implemented in the region of SSA to be successful, the integrated sustainability mechanisms presented in this thesis “must” be adopted.. Eugene Chidiebere Xavier Ikejemba. Enhancing Sustainable Development in Sub-Saharan Africa:. Eugene Chidiebere Xavier Ikejemba.

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