• No results found

Diet during pregnancy and weaning and adult disease in the offspring in the rat | RIVM

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Diet during pregnancy and weaning and adult disease in the offspring in the rat | RIVM"

Copied!
68
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)

5,90UHSRUW 'LHWGXULQJSUHJQDQF\DQGZHDQLQJDQGDGXOWGLVHDVH LQWKHRIIVSULQJLQWKHUDW 06LHPHOLQN-$0$'RUPDQV+YDQ/RYHUHQ$GH .OHUN:9OHHPLQJ(6FKHQN7YDQGH.XLO-'WH %LHVHEHHN+9HUKDUHQ$9HUKRHI$2SSHUKXL]HQ $+3LHUVPD 7KLVLQYHVWLJDWLRQKDVEHHQSHUIRUPHGE\RUGHUDQGIRUWKHDFFRXQWRIWKHPLQLVWU\RI3XEOLF +HDOWK:HOIDUHDQG6SRUWVZLWKLQWKHIUDPHZRUNRISURMHFWµ+HDOWKSURPRWLQJ FRPSRQHQWVLQIRRGGLHWGXULQJSUHJQDQF\¶ 5,9032%R[%$%LOWKRYHQWHOHSKRQHWHOHID[

(2)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

$EVWUDFW

6HYHUDOHSLGHPLRORJLFDODVZHOODVH[SHULPHQWDOVWXGLHVVXJJHVWWKDWWKHFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKH PDWHUQDOGLHWGXULQJSUHJQDQF\PD\KDYHDSURJUDPPLQJHIIHFWRQWKHIHWXVOHDGLQJWR HSLJHQHWLFSUHGLVSRVLWLRQRIFKURQLFGLVHDVHVLQDGXOWKRRG +HUHHIIHFWVRIYDULRXVGLHWVJLYHQGXULQJSUHJQDQF\DQGZHDQLQJRQSDUDPHWHUVUHODWHGWR FKURQLFGLVHDVHVGXULQJDGXOWKRRGZHUHVWXGLHGLQWKHUDW 6HYHQJURXSVRIVL[WHHQDQLPDOVZHUHSXWRQDQLVRFDORULFVHPLV\QWKHWLFKLJKIDWGLHWWZR ZHHNVEHIRUHSUHJQDQF\DQGFRQWLQXLQJWKURXJKRXWSUHJQDQF\DQGZHDQLQJ'LHWVGLIIHUHG LQPDFURQXWULHQW±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

(3)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

6DPHQYDWWLQJ

8LW]RZHOHSLGHPLRORJLVFKHDOVGLHUH[SHULPHQWHOHVWXGLHVNRPHQVWHHGVPHHUDDQZLM]LQJHQ GDWGHVDPHQVWHOOLQJYDQGHYRHGLQJWLMGHQVGH]ZDQJHUVFKDSHHQEHODQJULMNHLQYORHGKHHIW RSGHYDWEDDUKHLGYDQKHWQDJHVODFKWYRRUFKURQLVFKH]LHNWHQRSODWHUHOHHIWLMG ,QGH]HGLHUH[SHULPHQWHOHVWXGLH]LMQGHHIIHFWHQYDQGLHUYRHGHUVPHWHHQYHUVFKLOOHQGH VDPHQVWHOOLQJRQGHU]RFKWRSSDUDPHWHUVYRRUFKURQLVFKH]LHNWHQRSYROZDVVHQOHHIWLMG$DQ ]HYHQJURHSHQYDQHON]HVWLHQGLHUHQZHUGHHQLVRFDORULVFKKRRJYHWYRHUJHJHYHQPHWHHQ YHUVFKLOOHQGHPDFURQXWULs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wQYORHGGRRUGHVDPHQVWHOOLQJYDQGHPDWHUQDOHYRHGLQJLQ XWHURHQWLMGHQVVSHQHQ &RQFOXGHUHQGNDQZRUGHQJH]HJGGDWGHVDPHQVWHOOLQJYDQGHYRHGLQJWLMGHQVGHGUDFKWHQ GHYURHJHSRVWQDWDOHSHULRGHGHSRVWQDWDOHRQWZLNNHOLQJYDQKHWQDJHVODFKWEHwQYORHGGH KHWJHHQEOHHNXLWYHUDQGHULQJHQLQ]RZHOPRUIRORJLVFKHDOVI\VLRORJLVFKHSDUDPHWHUV

(4)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

&217(176

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

(5)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI $33(1',&(6 $SSHQGL['LHWDU\FRPSRVLWLRQ $SSHQGL[)RRGLQWDNHDQGERG\ZHLJKWGDWDRIGDPV  $SSHQGL[$XWRSV\DWJHVWDWLRQDJHGD\V $SSHQGL[9LVFHUDOPDOIRUPDWLRQVRIIHWXVHVDWJHVWDWLRQGD\  $SSHQGL[6NHOHWDOPDOIRUPDWLRQVRIIHWXVHVJHVWDWLRQGD\ $SSHQGL[%RG\ZHLJKWRIWKHRIIVSULQJ  $SSHQGL[*OXFRVHDQGLQVXOLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQGXULQJJOXFRVHWROHUDQFHWHVW  $SSHQGL[%ORRGSUHVVXUHLQPDOHRIIVSULQJDWDJHZHHNV $SSHQGL[,QGLYLGXDOGDWD/LVWHULDLQIHFWLRQ $SSHQGL['DWDDXWRSV\PDOHRIIVSULQJDJHZHHNV  $SSHQGL[+LVWRORJLFDOFKDQJHVLQRUJDQVRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV  $SSHQGL[,QGLYLGXDOPRUSKRPHWULFGDWDSDQFUHDV $SSHQGL[&RUWLFRVWHURQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQDIWHU$&7+VWLPXODWLRQLQYLWUR  $SSHQGL[3URWRFROFRUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHDIWHU$&7+VWLPXODWLRQLQYLWUR LQ'XWFK 

(6)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

,QWURGXFWLRQ

6HYHUDOGHFDGHVRIUHVHDUFKKDYHGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWVLJQLILFDQWFRQWULEXWLRQVWRWKHULVNRI FKURQLFGLVHDVHVDUHPDGHE\DGXOWOLIHVW\OHIDFWRUVVXFKDVVPRNLQJLQDFWLYLW\DQGDKLJKIDW GLHW0RUHUHFHQWUHVHDUFKILQGLQJVVXJJHVWWKDWWKHULVNRIFKURQLFGLVHDVHVPD\EH GHWHUPLQHGSDUWO\DOVRE\WKHHQYLURQPHQWEHIRUHELUWK  7KHIHWXVDSSHDUVWRUHVSRQGWR WKHQXWULWLRQDOHQYLURQPHQWLQXWHURLQWHUPVRIDQDWRPLFDQGSK\VLRORJLFDGDSWDWLRQVZLWK WKHDLPWREHDGHTXDWHO\SUHSDUHGIRUWKHQXWULWLRQDOFRQGLWLRQVWKDWZLOOEHHQFRXQWHUHGDIWHU ELUWK&RQVHTXHQWO\ZKHQWKHSRVWQDWDOHQYLURQPHQWLVGLIIHUHQWWKDQDQWLFLSDWHGE\WKHIHWXV WKHDGDSWDWLRQVPD\EHGHWULPHQWDOWRKHDOWKDQGPD\LQWKLVZD\LQFUHDVHWKHVXVFHSWLELOLW\ WRFDQFHUFDUGLRYDVFXODUGLVHDVHREHVLW\GLDEHWHVDQGLQIHFWLRXVGLVHDVHV  ,QYLHZRI WKHLQFUHDVLQJLQFLGHQFHRIWKHPDMRUFKURQLFGLVHDVHVPRUHLQVLJKWLQWRWKHUROHRISUHQDWDO QXWULWLRQRQGHWHUPLQLQJGLVHDVHULVNLQDGXOWKRRGPD\FRQWULEXWHWRWKHSUHYHQWLRQRIIXWXUH FDVHVRIFKURQLFGLVHDVHV (YLGHQFHIRUSUHQDWDOSURJUDPPLQJFRPHVIURPDODUJHQXPEHURIUHWURVSHFWLYH HSLGHPLRORJLFDOVWXGLHVWKURXJKRXWWKHZRUOGDVZHOODVIURPDQLPDOVWXGLHV  :KHUHDV KXPDQVWXGLHVPD\EHFRQIRXQGHGE\XQFRQWUROODEOHVRFLDODQGJHQHWLFIDFWRUVDQLPDO VWXGLHVSHUPLWWKHLQYHVWLJDWLRQRIWKHIHWDORULJLQVRIDGXOWGLVHDVHK\SRWKHVLVLQDPRUH VWDQGDUGL]HGDQGPHFKDQLVWLFPDQQHU

$LPDQGUHOHYDQFHRIWKHVWXG\

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

(7)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

0DWHULDOVDQGPHWKRGV

([SHULPHQWDOGHVLJQ

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

7HVWDQLPDOV

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ƒ&DQGUHODWLYHKXPLGLW\

(8)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

PRWKHUV SXSV

DFFO SUHPDWLQJ SUHJQDQF\ ZHDQLQJ ZNVRIDJH

ZNV ZNV ZHHNV ZHHNV ELUWK PHDVXUHPHQWVRIIVSULQJ VHFWLRQ VHFWLRQJHVWDWLRQ 2*77%3 GD\ LQIHFWLRQFKDOOHQJH DGUHQDOUHVSRQVH$&7+ )LJXUH6WXG\GHVLJQ 2*77RUDOJOXFRVHWROHUDQFHWHVW%3EORRGSUHVVXUH

([SHULPHQWDOGLHWV

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ž&DQGHDFKGD\DIUHVKO\WKDZHGSRUWLRQZDVRIIHUHGWRWKHUDWV$GHWDLOHGFRPSRVLWLRQ RIWKHGLHWVLVJLYHQLQDSSHQGL[DQG 3HUR[LGHOHYHOVRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDOGLHWVDIWHUPRQWKVRIVWRUDJHDQGDIWHUKRXUVDWURRP WHPSHUDWXUHZHUHDQDO\VHG$OOGLHWDU\DQDO\VHVZHUHSHUIRUPHGE\7121XWULWLRQ=HLVW H[SHULPHQWDOGLHW 50+*6 PLON FRQWUROGLHW

(9)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

0HDVXUHPHQWVIURPPDWLQJXQWLOZHDQLQJ

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Û& DQG FROOHFWHGLQ(SSHQGRUIWXEHVZKLFKZHUHWLJKWO\FORVHGXQGHUDVWUHDPRIQLWURJHQDQGVWRUHG DWÛ&7KHUHPDLQLQJ5%&ZHUHZDVKHGWZRWLPHVZLWKLVRWRQLFVDOLQHFHQWULIXJHG USP J W PLQÛ& DQGFROOHFWHGLQ(SSHQGRUIWXEHVLQZKLFK ORI%+7 EXW\ODWHGK\GUR[\WROXHQHDQWLR[LGDQW ZDVSUHVHQWDQGZHUHFORVHGXQGHUQLWURJHQ6HUXP ZDVFROOHFWHGZLWKLQKRXUVDQGVWRUHGDWÛ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

(10)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW %LUWK $WSRVWQDWDOGD\OLWWHUVL]HVH[UDWLRDQGELUWKZHLJKWRIWKHSXSVZHUHUHFRUGHGZLWKLQ KRXUVDIWHUELUWK/LWWHUVL]HZDVFXOOHGWRSXSV PI  :HDQLQJDWDJHZHHNV $WWKHDJHRIZHHNVPDOHVDQGIHPDOHVZHUHKRXVHGVHSDUDWHO\DQGPDUNHGLQGLYLGXDOO\ $WWKLVWLPHDOOJURXSVZHUHVZLWFKHGWRWKHFRQWUROGLHW'DPVZHUHVDFULILFHGDQGDQ DEGRPLQDOEORRGVDPSOHZDVGUDZQIURPWKHPWKHEORRGZDVSURFHVVHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH SURWRFROGHVFULEHGDERYH VHFWLRQ

0HDVXUHPHQWVLQWKHRIIVSULQJDWWKHDJHRIZHHNV

2UDOJOXFRVHWROHUDQFHWHVW 0DOHRIIVSULQJXQGHUZHQWDQRUDOJOXFRVHWROHUDQFHWHVWDWDJHZHHNV7KHUDWVZHUHIDVWHG RYHUQLJKWDQGJOXFRVH JNJERG\ZHLJKW ZDVDGPLQLVWHUHGE\RUDOJDYDJHEHWZHHQ DPDQGDP%ORRGZDVFROOHFWHGLQKHSDULQL]HGFXSV 0LFURYHWWH&%6DUVWHGW *HUPDQ\ E\WDLOVQLSSLQJDWDQGPLQXWHVDIWHUJOXFRVHDGPLQLVWUDWLRQ %ORRGVDPSOHVZHUHLPPHGLDWHO\FHQWULIXJHGDQGSODVPDZDVVWRUHGDWƒ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

$UWHULDOEORRGJDVYDOXHV S+3D2DQG3D&2 ZHUHGHWHUPLQHGE\XVLQJD&LED&RUQLQJ

%ORRG*DV6\VWHP &LED&RUQLQJ/LPLWHG+RXWHQ7KH1HWKHUODQGV 

7KURXJKRXWWKHH[SHULPHQWVUHFWDOWHPSHUDWXUH 700PRGXOH+XJR6DFKV(OHFWURQLF ZDV PRQLWRUHGDQGWKHERG\WHPSHUDWXUHZDVNHSWEHWZHHQ±R&E\SODFLQJWKHDQLPDOVRQ

(11)

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ƒ& XQWLODQDO\VLV7KHIROORZLQJRUJDQVZHUHH[FLVHGZHLJKHGDQGIL[HGZLWKSKRVSKDWH EXIIHUHGIRUPDOGHK\GHSDQFUHDVOLYHUNLGQH\VDGUHQDOJODQGVVSOHHQEUDLQVWK\PXV KHDUWSLWXLWDU\0RUHRYHUDVPDOOVDPSOHRIDEGRPLQDOIDWDQGPXVFOHZDVWDNHQDQGVWRUHG DWž&$OLYHUOREHDQGWKHEUDLQVZHUHTXLFNO\VQDSIUR]HQLQOLTXLG1DIWHUZHLJKLQJ 3DWKRORJ\

)RU KLVWRORJLFDO H[DPLQDWLRQ  mP SDUDSODVW VHFWLRQV RI WKH DGUHQDOV KHDUW NLGQH\ OLYHU SDQFUHDVSLWXLWDU\VSOHHQDQGWK\PXVZHUHFXWDQGVWDLQHGZLWKKHPDWR[\OLQDQGHRVLQ +( 

(12)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW )RUPRUSKRPHWU\RIWKHSDQFUHDVWKHQXPEHUDQGVXUIDFHDUHDRIWKHLVOHWVRIWKHSDQFUHDVZHUH PHDVXUHGZLWKWKHDQDO\6,6VRIWLPDJLQJV\VWHP 6,60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ž&IRUPLQXWHVSULRUWRWKHDGGLWLRQRIGLIIHUHQW FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI$&7+WRWKHFHOOVXVSHQVLRQ7KHWXEHVZHUHLQFXEDWHGIRUWZRKRXUVLQD VKDNHU$OOREVHUYDWLRQVZHUHPDGHLQGXSOLFDWHXQOHVVVWDWHGRWKHUZLVH6DPSOHVZHUH IUR]HQDWž&XQWLOWKHPHDVXUHPHQWRIFRUWLFRVWHURQH)RUWKLVSXUSRVHGLFKORRUPHWKDQH ZDVDGGHGWRWKHWXEHV$IWHUH[WUDFWLRQE\VKDNLQJIRUPLQXWHVWKHWXEHVZHUHFHQWULIXJHG DQGWKHDTXHRXVSKDVHZDVUHPRYHGDQGDVXOSKXULFDFLG±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ž&SPRORI8'3PDQQRVHDQG SPRORI8'3[\ORVHZHUHDGGHGWRWKHVXSHUQDWDQWDVLQWHUQDOVWDQGDUGV7KHVDPSOHV ZHUHGHSURWHLQL]HGDQGGLOXWHGZLWK.+32DQGDSSOLHGWRVROLGSKDVHH[WUDFWLRQFROXPQV $IWHUWKHFROXPQVZHUHZDVKHG ZLWK.+32VROXWLRQVGLIIHULQJLQPRODULW\DQGS+ WKH 8'3VXJDUVZHUHHOXWHGZLWK.+328'3VXJDUVZHUHVHSDUDWHGDQGTXDQWLILHGE\+3/& DQGXOWUDYLROHWGHWHFWLRQDWQP)RUPRUHGHWDLOVRQHLVUHIHUUHGWRWKHDUWLFOHE\6SDQHW DO  

(13)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

6WDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV

'DWDRIDOOJURXSVZHUHFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS$OOGDWDZHUHUHSRUWHGDVPHDQV“ 6(07KHGDWDZHUHDQDO\]HGXVLQJDRQHZD\DQDO\VLVRIYDULDQFH $129$ ZKHQ DSSURSULDWH:KHQVLJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQVZHUHQRWHG'XQQHWW¶VWHVWZDVXVHGIRU GHWHUPLQDWLRQRIGLIIHUHQFHZLWKWKHFRQWUROJURXS$SYDOXHRIZDVFRQVLGHUHGWR LPSO\DVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFH

(14)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

5HVXOWV

'LHWDU\FRPSRVLWLRQ

,QDSSHQGL[WKHFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKHH[SHULPHQWDOGLHWVLVJLYHQLQDSSHQGL[WKH PDFURQXWULHQWFRPSRVLWLRQLVVKRZQ7KHKLJKSURWHLQGLHWVFRQVLVWHGRI“SURWHLQ WKHORZSURWHLQGLHWFRQWDLQHGSURWHLQ)DWFRQWHQWZDV“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

0DWHUQDOSDUDPHWHUV

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“JLQDOOJURXSVDWWKHHQGRIWKHSUHPDWLQJSHULRG

(15)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI )RRGLQWDNHDQGERG\ZHLJKWJDLQGXULQJSUHJQDQF\ 7RWDOIRRGFRQVXPSWLRQGXULQJSUHJQDQF\ZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHULQWKHILVKRLOJURXS FRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS JYVJQ S 7KLVORZHUIRRGLQWDNH ZDVFOHDUO\VHHQIURPJHVWDWLRQGD\ ILJXUH  )LJXUH)RRGLQWDNHGXULQJSUHJQDQF\RIPRWKHUVIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWVQ SHUGLHWJURXS'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHG DVPHDQDQGFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS S 7RWDOERG\ZHLJKWJDLQGXULQJSUHJQDQF\ZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHULQWKHILVKRLOJURXS  JFRPSDUHGWRLQWKHFRQWUROJURXS WKLVZDVSULPDULO\FDXVHGE\DVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHU ERG\ZHLJKWJDLQGXULQJGD\RISUHJQDQF\ ILJXUHDSSHQGL[  )LJXUH&XPXODWLYHERG\ZHLJKWJDLQRIGDPVIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWVGXULQJSUHJQDQF\Q 'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHG DVPHDQDQGFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS S                  GD\LQSUHJ QDQF\ IRRG LQWDNH JU DPV FRQWURO IOD[VHHGRLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZ HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU ORZ SURWHLQ          GD\ GD\ GD\ GD\ GD\ GD\LQSUHJQDQF\ FXP XODWL YH LQ FUHDVH LQ E RG\  ZHL JKW  J FRQWURO IOD[VHHGRLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZ HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU ORZ SURWHLQ

(16)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

*HVWDWLRQGXUDWLRQ

1RVLJQLFDQWHIIHFWRIWKHGLHWRQJHVWDWLRQGXUDWLRQZDVIRXQG WDEOH  7DEOH1XPEHUVRIDQLPDOVSHUJURXSDFFRUGLQJWRSUHJQDQF\GXUDWLRQ

SUHJQDQF\

GXUDWLRQ FRQWURO IOD[VHHGRLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZHURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZILEHU ORZSURWHLQ

GD\V    GD\V        GD\V  )RRGLQWDNHGXULQJODFWDWLRQ :LWKUHVSHFWWRIRRGLQWDNHRQGD\DQGSRVWQDWDOO\PRWKHUVRQWKHORZSURWHLQGLHW FRQVXPHGVLJQLILFDQWO\OHVVIRRGFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS2QGD\IRRGLQWDNHRI WKHPHQKDGHQILVKRLOJURXSZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQWKDWRIWKHFRQWUROJURXS “ FRPSDUHGWR“LQWKHFRQWUROJURXSDSSHQGL[ VHHILJXUH )LJXUH)RRGLQWDNHGXULQJODFWDWLRQRIPRWKHUVIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWVQ 'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQ“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

(17)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

)HWDOSDUDPHWHUV

)HWDOZHLJKW )HWDOZHLJKWZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\KLJKHULQWKHORZILEHUIHGJURXS JYVJQ YVQ S IRUPDOHVDQGIHPDOHV PDOHIHWXVHVVHHILJXUH )HPDOHVRIWKHVDIIORZHURLO IHGJURXSZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\KHDYLHUWKDQWKHFRQWUROJURXS JYVQ S DSSHQGL[  )LJXUH)HWDOZHLJKWRIPDOHIHWXVHVRQJHVWDWLRQGD\RIGDPVIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWVGXULQJSUHJQDQF\ FRQWUROQ IOD[VHHGQ ILVKRLOQ VDIIORZHURLOQ FRFRQXWRLOQ ORZILEHUQ ORZ SURWHLQQ  'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQ“6(0DQGDUHFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS S 3ODFHQWDOZHLJKW 3ODFHQWDOZHLJKWRIPDOHDQGIHPDOHIHWXVHVRIWKHORZSURWHLQJURXSZDVVLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHU FRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS JYVJQ SDSSHQGL[ ,QILJXUH PHDQSODFHQWDOZHLJKWRIPDOHIHWXVHVLVVKRZQ,QDSSHQGL[WKHUDWLRIHWDOSODFHQWDO ZHLJKWLVJLYHQ          FRQWURO IOD[VHHG

RLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZ HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU SURWHLQORZ

IH WD OZHL JKW “ 6(0 J UDP V

(18)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

)LJXUH3ODFHQWDOZHLJKWRIPDOHIHWXVHVRQJHVWDWLRQGD\RIGDPVIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWVGXULQJSUHJQDQF\ FRQWUROQ IOD[VHHGQ ILVKRLOQ VDIIORZHURLOQ FRFRQXWRLOQ ORZILEHUQ ORZ SURWHLQQ  'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQ“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

RLO ILVKRLO VDIIOR Z HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU SURWHLQORZ

SODFHQWDO Z HL JKW “ 6(0 JUDP V

(19)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

7KHRIIVSULQJ

9LVXDOLQVSHFWLRQRIWKHSXSV 3XSVRIWKHPRWKHUVIHGWKHFRFRQXWRLOGLHWVKRZHGOHVVDQGGLIIXVHKDLUJURZWKXSWRDERXW ZHHNV %RG\ZHLJKWLQFUHDVHLQWKHRIIVSULQJ 0DOHV 0DOHRIIVSULQJRIPRWKHUVIHGWKHILVKRLOGLHWZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\OLJKWHUIURPELUWKXQWLODJH ZHHNVFRPSDUHGWRSXSVRIWKHFRQWUROJURXS0DOHSXSVRIPRWKHUVIHGFRFRQXWRLOZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\VPDOOHUDWDQGZHHNVRIDJH$PDWHUQDOORZILEHUGLHWUHVXOWHGLQKHDYLHU SXSVIURPDJHZHHNVXQWLODJHZHHNV DSSHQGL[ )LQDOO\WKHORZSURWHLQGLHWLQXWHUR DQGWKURXJKRXWZHDQLQJZDVIRXQGWRUHGXFHERG\ZHLJKWIURPZHHNXSWRDJHZHHNV ILJXUH  )LJXUH,QFUHDVHLQERG\ZHLJKWLQPDOHRIIVSULQJIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWVLQXWHUR3XSVRIWKHILVKRLODQGORZ SURWHLQJURXSJDLQHGVLJQLILFDQWO\OHVVERG\ZHLJKWXSWRZHHNVFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS FRQWURO Q IOD[VHHGQ ILVKRLOQ VDIIORZHURLOQ FRFRQXWRLOQ ORZILEHUQ ORZSURWHLQ Q  'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQ“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

(20)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW *OXFRVHOHYHOZDVVLJQLILFDQWORZHUDWPLQXWHVDIWHUWKHORDGLQWKHFRFRQXWRLOJURXS FRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS ILJXUHDSSHQGL[ 7KLVFOHDUO\VKRZVWKHWLPHODJHIIHFW RILQVXOLQRQGHFUHDVLQJJOXFRVHOHYHOV )LJXUH3ODVPDLQVXOLQUHVSRQVHDIWHURUDOJOXFRVHORDGLQPDOHRIIVSULQJRIZHHNVROGIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWVLQ XWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJQ 'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQ “6(0IRUFRQWUROJURXS DQGDUHFRPSDUHGWR WKHFRQWUROJURXS S )LJXUH3ODVPDJOXFRVHUHVSRQVHDIWHURUDOJOXFRVHORDGLQPDOHRIIVSULQJRIZHHNVROGIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWV LQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJQ 'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQ “6(0IRUFRQWUROJURXS DQGDUHFRPSDUHG WRWKHFRQWUROJURXS S                 WLP HDIWHURUDOJOXFRVHORDG P LQXWHV SODVP D LQ VXOL Q S P ROO FRQWUROGLHW IOD[VHHGRLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZ HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU ORZ SURWHLQ                 WLP HDIWHURUDOJOXFRVHORDG P LQXWHV JOXFRVH P P ROO FRQWUROGLHW IOD[VHHGRLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZ HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU ORZ SURWHLQ

(21)

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“6(0DQGDUHFRPSDUHG WRWKHFRQWUROJURXS )LJXUH%DVDOGLDVWROLFEORRGSUHVVXUH GXULQJSK\VLRORJLFVDOLQHLQMHFWLRQ LQPDOHRIIVSULQJRIZHHNVROG IHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWVLQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJQ 'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQ“6(0DQGDUHFRPSDUHGWR WKHFRQWUROJURXS           FRQWURO IOD[VHHG

RLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZ HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU SURWHLQORZ

V\ VW ROL F ES “ 6(0 P P +J           FRQWURO IOD[VHHG

RLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZ HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU SURWHLQORZ

GL DVW ROL F ES “ 6(0 P P +J

(22)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW )LJXUH6\VWROLFEORRGSUHVVXUHDIWHUDQ/1$0(LQIXVLRQLQPDOHRIIVSULQJDJHGZHHNVIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWV LQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJQ 'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQ “6(0IRUFRQWUROJURXS DQGDUHFRPSDUHG WRWKHFRQWUROJURXS )LJXUH'LDVWROLFEORRGSUHVVXUHDIWHUD/1$0(LQIXVLRQLQPDOHRIIVSULQJDJHGZHHNVIHGGLIIHUHQWGLHWV LQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJQ 'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQ “6(0IRUFRQWUROJURXS DQGDUHFRPSDUHG WRWKHFRQWUROJURXS ,QIHFWLRQZLWK/LVWHULDPRQRF\WRJHQHV ,QILJXUHWKHQXPEHURIFRORQ\IRUPLQJXQLWVLQWKHVSOHHQIRXUGD\VDIWHUD/LVWHULD LQIHFWLRQLVVKRZQ$QLQFUHDVHGQXPEHURIFRORQ\IRUPLQJXQLWVLQGLFDWHVDUHGXFHG LPPXQLW\ 7KHUHVXOWVVKRZWKDWWKHQXPEHURIFRORQLHVZDVORZHVWLQWKHIOD[VHHGGLHWDOWKRXJKWKLV GLGQRWUHDFKVWDWLVWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFH$GLHWORZLQGLHWDU\ILEHULQFUHDVHGWKHQXPEHURI EDFWHULDOFRORQLHVLQWKHVSOHHQFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXSDOWKRXJKQRWVWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQWO\,QGLYLGXDOGDWDDUHJLYHQLQDSSHQGL[              GRVDJH/1 $0 ( P JNJEZ P LQ V\ VW ROL F ES “ 6(0 P P +J FRQWURO IOD[VHHGRLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZ HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU ORZ SURWHLQ                GRVDJH/1 $0 ( P JNJEZ P LQ GL DVW ROL F ES “ 6(0 FRQWURO IOD[VHHGRLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZ HURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZ ILEHU ORZ SURWHLQ

(23)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI

)LJXUH1XPEHURIFRORQ\IRUPLQJXQLWVLQWKHVSOHHQDIWHUD/LVWHULDLQIHFWLRQ FRQWUROQ IOD[VHHGQ  ILVKRLOQ VDIIORZHURLOQ FRFRQXWRLOQ ORZILEHUQ ORZSURWHLQQ  'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDV PHDQ“6(0DQGDUHFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS $XWRSV\ 0DFURVFRS\ $WDXWRSV\QRPDFURVFRSLFDODEQRUPDOLWLHVZHUHREVHUYHG,QDSSHQGL[DEVROXWHDQG UHODWLYHRUJDQZHLJKWVDUHJLYHQIRUHDFKGLHWJURXS DYHUDJH“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

RLO ILVKRLO VDIIORZHURLO FRFRQXWRLO ORZILEHU SURWHLQORZ

QXP EHU RI FRORQL HV J VSOHHQ P HDQ “ 6(0

(24)

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“VGDQGDUHFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS S YROXPHRILVOHWV PP QLVOHWVPP  QLVOHWV!PPPP FRQWUROJURXS “ “ “ ORZSURWHLQJURXS “ “ “ FRFRQXWRLOJURXS “ “ “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

(25)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI            >$&7+@ SJPO FR UW LF RV WH UR Q UH VS RQ VH  Q J O VR\RLO VR\RLO )LJXUHD&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV IHGWKHFRQWUROGLHW VR\RLO LQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJ'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUFXUYH            >$&7+@ SJPO FR UW LF RV WH UR QH U HV SR QV  Q J O VDIIORZHURLO VDIIORZHURLO )LJXUHE&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV IHGDVDIIORZHURLOGLHWLQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJ'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUFXUYH            >$&7+@ SJPO FR UW LF RV WH UR QH U HV SR QV  Q J O IOD[VHHGRLO IOD[VHHGRLO )LJXUHF&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV IHGDIOD[VHHGRLOGLHWLQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJ'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUFXUYH

(26)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW            >$&7+@ SJPO FR UW LF RV WH UR Q UH VS RQ VH  Q J O ILVKRLO )LJXUHG&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV IHGDILVKRLOGLHWLQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJ'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUFXUYH            >$&7+@ SJPO FR UW LF RV WH UR Q UH VS RQ VH  Q J O FRFRQXWRLO FRFRQXWRLO )LJXUHH&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV IHGWKHFRFRQXWRLOGLHWLQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJ'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUFXUYH            >$&7+@ SJPO FR UW LF RV WH UR Q UH VS RQ VH  Q J O ORZILEHU ORZILEHU )LJXUHI&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV IHGWKHORZILEHUGLHWLQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJ'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUFXUYH

(27)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI             >$&7+@ SJPO FR UW LF RV WH UR Q UH VS RQ VH  Q J O ORZSURWHLQ ORZSURWHLQ )LJXUHJ&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV IHGWKHORZSURWHLQGLHWLQXWHURDQGGXULQJZHDQLQJ'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUFXUYH 1RY             >$&7+@SJP O FR UW LF RV WH UR QH  Q J O VR\RLO ORZ ILEHU ORZ SURWHLQ )LJXUHD&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV RIGLIIHUHQWJURXSVRQGLIIHUHQWH[SHULPHQWDOGD\V'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUJURXS 1RY            >$&7+@SJP O FR UW LF RV WH UR QH  Q J O VR\RLO VDIIORZHURLO FRFRQXWRLO )LJXUHE&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV RIGLIIHUHQWJURXSVRQGLIIHUHQWH[SHULPHQWDOGD\V'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUJURXS

(28)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW 1 R Y                >$ & 7 + @SJ P O FR UW LF RV WH UR QH  Q J O VDIIORZ HURLO IOD[ VHHGRLO ILVKRLO )LJXUHF&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV RIGLIIHUHQWJURXSVRQGLIIHUHQWH[SHULPHQWDOGD\V'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUJURXS 1 R Y                            >$& 7 + @S J P O FR UW LF RV WH UR QH  Q J O OR Z ILEH U IOD [VHHGRLO )LJXUHG&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV RIGLIIHUHQWJURXSVRQGLIIHUHQWH[SHULPHQWDOGD\V'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUJURXS 1 R Y                                              >$ & 7 + @S J P O FR UW LF RV WH UR QH  Q J O OR Z S UR WH LQ F R F R Q X WR LO )LJXUHH&RUWLFRVWHURQHUHVSRQVHRIDGUHQDOFHOOVWRLQFUHDVLQJ>$&7+@LQYLWURRIPDOHUDWVDJHGZHHNV RIGLIIHUHQWJURXSVRQGLIIHUHQWH[SHULPHQWDOGD\V'DWDDUHH[SUHVVHGDVPHDQQ SHUJURXS

(29)

5,90UHSRUW 3DJHRI +H[RVDPLQHSDWKZD\LQWHUPHGLDWHVLQUDWPXVFOH ,QWDEOHUHVXOWVRIPHDVXUHPHQWVRIPHWDEROLWHVRIWKHKH[RVDPLQHSDWKZD\DUHJLYHQ1R VLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQWUROJURXS 7DEOH0HWDEROLWHVRIWKHKH[RVDPLQHSDWKZD\LQUDWPXVFOH*DO8'3JDODFWRVH*DO1$F8'31DFHW\O JDODFWRVDPLQH*OF8'3JOXFRVDPLQH*OF1$&8'31DFHW\OJOXFRVDPLQH 8'3QPROPOKRPRJHQDWH

Q *DO *DO1$F *OF *OF1$&

FRQWUROJURXS  “ “ “ “ IOD[VHHGRLO  “ “ “ “ ILVKRLO  “ “ “ “ VDIIORZHURLO  “ “ “ “ FRFRQXWRLO  “ “  “ ORZILEHU  “ “ “ “ ORZSURWHLQ  “ “ “ “

(30)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

'LVFXVVLRQ

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

(31)

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

(32)

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

(33)

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

(34)

3DJHRI 5,90UHSRUW

5HIHUHQFHV

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

Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

In conclusion, the University Medical Center Groningen has been established as an independent heart transplantation centre as of 2007, and it has since demonstrated

The current study is a rapid systematic review examining the symptoms of stress-related disorders, particularly PGD and PTSD, as well as depression, anxiety and insomnia in

20 l.clort.J.. Elïect of antigen provocation of II -5 transgenic mice on eosinophil mobilization and bronchial hyperresponsiveness. J.Allerg) ( 'lin Immunol. Effects of

I his stud) «as financial)) supported by the Netherlands Asthma Foundation (grant no. Asthma and inflammation J.Allergy Clin.Immunol. and Van der Zee.J.S. 1999 Influx of

According to Kuntz and Levine (1996) market capitalization could be estimated using stock market liquidity, volatility, institutional development, the relationship between

Het effect van een sponsorvermelding die eerlijke meningen benadrukt op attitudinal persuasion knowledge is sterker voor mensen met een sceptischere houding tegenover advertenties

Om een helder beeld te krijgen van de impact van oorlogvoering op de economie is het van belang om naar een kleinere regio te kijken, hierbij is voor de