• No results found

Climate change and infrastructure performance: should we worry about?

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Climate change and infrastructure performance: should we worry about?"

Copied!
10
0
0

Bezig met laden.... (Bekijk nu de volledige tekst)

Hele tekst

(1)Available online at www.sciencedirect.com. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 – 1784. 7UDQVSRUW5HVHDUFK$UHQD±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© 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the ‹3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG6HOHFWLRQDQGSHHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI75$ Transport Research Arena 2012. . .H\ZRUGVFOLPDWHFKDQJHPDLQWHQDQFHSHUIRUPDQFHUDLOZD\LQIUDVWUXFWXUHZHDWKHUHIIHFWV. ,QWURGXFWLRQ 2YHU WKH ODVW GHFDGHV FOLPDWH FKDQJH KDV EHHQ RQ WKH WRS RI WKH SROLWLFDO DJHQGD DQG PDQ\ RUJDQL]DWLRQVKDYHXQGHUWDNHQYDULRXVHIIRUWVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQRXUGDLO\DQG IXWXUH OLIH LQFOXGLQJ MXGJHPHQWV DERXW PLWLJDWLRQ DQG DGDSWDWLRQ FRVWV 7KDW DOVR LQFOXGHV VHYHUDO HQGHDYRXUVWRUHYHDOWKHLQIOXHQFHRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHQHWZRUNV HJ/HYLlNDQJDVHWDO (QHLHWDO3DSDQLNRODXHWDO.RHWVH 5LHWYHOG+XJKHVHWDO'REQH\ %DNHUHWDO%OHVHWDO

(2)  . &RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU7HOID[ (PDLODGGUHVVLVWLSDQRYLF#XWZHQWHQO. 1877-0428 © 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer review under responsibility of the Programme Committee of the Transport Research Arena 2012 doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1152.

(3) 1776. Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 – 1784. $OWKRXJK LW KDV EHHQ NQRZQ IRU D ZKLOH WKDW FOLPDWHUHODWHG IDFWRUV DFFRXQW IRU WKH SHUIRUPDQFH GHYHORSPHQWRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHLWUHPDLQVGLIILFXOWWRHVWLPDWHWKHHIIHFWRIWKHDQWLFLSDWHGFOLPDWHFKDQJH 0DQ\VWXGLHVDUHUHVWULFWHGWRDPRUHJHQHUDODQGTXDOLWDWLYHDQDO\VLVRISRVVLEOHFOLPDWHLQGXFHGHIIHFWV RQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH SHUIRUPDQFH ZKLFK FDQ EH PDLQO\ WUDFHG EDFN WR WKH XQFHUWDLQ DQG JOREDO FOLPDWH PRGHOVXQGHUO\LQJWKHDQDO\VLV /HYLlNDQJDVHWDO(QHLHWDO3DSDQLNRODXHWDO%OHVHW DO 

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

(5) SURYLGHRQO\LQGLFDWLYHPHDVXUHVDQGJOREDOILHOGVRIDFWLRQ7KXVWKHUHLVDQHHG IRUPRUHVWXGLHVDGGUHVVLQJORFDOFOLPDWHFRQGLWLRQVDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHSHFXOLDULWLHV (QHLHWDO

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

(7)  $FFRUGLQJWRWKHUHVXOWVRI'XWFKVWXGLHVWRGDWHFOLPDWHFKDQJHKDVQRWOHGWRDQ\VHULRXVSUREOHPVLQ WKH1HWKHUODQGV+RZHYHUWKHFOLPDWHLVFKDQJLQJDQGWKHPDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDUHWKHIROORZLQJ ‡ GXULQJWKHODVWFHQWXU\PHDQWHPSHUDWXUHKDVULVHQE\DERXWƒ&ZRUOGZLGHDQGLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV E\DERXWƒ& ‡ WKH VHD OHYHO DORQJ WKH 'XWFK FRDVW KDV EHHQ VXEMHFW WR DQ DXWRQRPRXV ULVH RI DERXW  FP SHU FHQWXU\ DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI FOLPDWH FKDQJHV PHOWLQJ RI ODQG LFH DQG JODFLHUV DQG H[SDQVLRQ RI VHDZDWHUGXHWRWHPSHUDWXUHULVH

(8) DQGODQGVXEVLGHQFH ‡ WKHULYHUGLVFKDUJHVDUHFKDQJLQJKLJKHUZLQWHUGLVFKDUJHVDQGORZHUGLVFKDUJHVLQGU\SHULRGVZLWK FOLPDWHFKDQJHSOD\LQJDOLNHO\UROHLQWKLV ‡ DYHUDJHDQQXDOSUHFLSLWDWLRQLQWKH1HWKHUODQGVLVLQFUHDVLQJDQGWKHUHLVDWHQGHQF\WRZDUGVPRUH GD\VRIUDLQDQGDQLQFUHDVHGIUHTXHQF\RIH[WUHPHUDLQIDOO 2YHUWKHQH[WIHZGHFDGHVFOLPDWHZLOOFKDQJHPRUHTXLFNO\ ‡ WKH DYHUDJH JOREDO WHPSHUDWXUH ZLOO DOPRVW FHUWDLQO\ LQFUHDVH IXUWKHU ±ƒ& LQ  \HDUV

(9)  WKLV LQFUHDVH LV DOVR H[SHFWHG IRU WKH 1HWKHUODQGV WKH IUHTXHQF\ RI GU\ DQG H[WUHPHO\ ZDUP VXPPHUV VXFK DV WKDW RI  ZLOO LQFUHDVH WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI H[WUHPHO\ FROG ZLQWHUV ZLOO GHFUHDVH 7KH FKDQFHRIGURXJKWGXULQJWKHVXPPHULVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVH  DQLQFUHDVHLQWKHDYHUDJHSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGH[WUHPHUDLQIDOOLVH[SHFWHGWKURXJKRXWWKHZRUOGEXWWKH UHJLRQDO GLVWULEXWLRQ LV VWLOO KLJKO\ XQFHUWDLQ LQ WKH 1HWKHUODQGV WKHUH LV OLNHO\ PRUH SUHFLSLWDWLRQ.

(10) Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 – 1784. ‡. GXULQJ WKH ZLQWHU DQG VXPPHUV ZLOO EH GULHU WKHUH ZLOO EH DQ LQFUHDVLQJ SUREDELOLW\ RI H[WUHPH UDLQIDOOZLWKORFDOIORRGV D IXUWKHU ULVH LQ WHPSHUDWXUH LV KLJKO\ OLNHO\ WR OHDG WR D PRUH UDSLG ULVH LQ VHD OHYHO DQG JUHDWHU G\QDPLFV LQ ULYHU GLVFKDUJHV PRUH WKDQ QRZ

(11)  7RZDUGV WKH HQG RI WKLV FHQWXU\ WKH VHD OHYHO ZLOO KDYHULVHQE\±FP7KLVZLGHUDQJHLVLQGLFDWLYHRIWKHGHJUHHRIXQFHUWDLQW\WKDWVWLOOH[LVWV 5HFHQWUHVHDUFKSRLQWVWRDULVHWKDWOLHVPRUHWRZDUGVWKHXSSHUOLPLWRIWKLVUDQJHRUHYHQSRVVLEO\ DERYH WKLV 7KH FKDQFHV RI IORRGV ZLOO OLNHO\ LQFUHDVH IXUWKHU GXH WR DQ H[SHFWHG LQFUHDVH LQ WKH QXPEHURIHSLVRGHVRIH[WUHPHUDLQ %UHVVHUHWDO

(12) .  3UHGLFWLRQV RQ FOLPDWH FKDQJH LQ WKH 1HWKHUODQGV UHTXLUH LQVLJKWV LQWR UHJLRQDO FOLPDWH H[SHFWDWLRQV DV ZHOODVJOREDOWUHQGV,QWKH.10, 5R\DO1HWKHUODQGV0HWHRURORJLFDO,QVWLWXWH

(13) KDVSXEOLVKHGIRXU GLIIHUHQWFOLPDWHVFHQDULRVLQWRZKLFKRXUFOLPDWHPD\GHYHORS7KHVHIRXUVFHQDULRVGLIIHULQWKHGHJUHH RIJOREDOWHPSHUDWXUHULVHDQGWKHGHJUHHRIFKDQJHLQDWPRVSKHULFFLUFXODWLRQSDWWHUQVLQRXUUHJLRQ%\ PDNLQJDVLPSOHDVVXPSWLRQWKHLQIOXHQFHRIIXWXUHFOLPDWHRQWKHUDLOZD\IRUZLQWHUFRQGLWLRQVDQGKHDW FDQEHTXDOLWDWLYHO\DVVHVVHG +XUNHWDO

(14) ,QWKH.10,HYDOXDWHGWKH.10,¶VFHQDULRV ZLWK WKH VWDWH RI NQRZOHGJH DW WKDW WLPH 7KH FRQFOXVLRQ ZDV WKDW WKHUH LV QR UHDVRQ WR FKDQJH WKH .10,¶ VFHQDULRV ,PSRUWDQW FKDQJHV VLQFH WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKH .10, ¶ VFHQDULRV LQFOXGH WKH REVHUYHGUDSLGZDUPLQJRIWKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG:HVWHUQ(XURSHWKHREVHUYHGUDSLGGHFUHDVHRIODUJHLFH VKHHWV RQ :HVW$QWDUFWLFD DQG *UHHQODQG DQG QHZ UHVHDUFK RQ SUHFLSLWDWLRQ SDWWHUQV RQ WKH ORFDO DQG UHJLRQDO VFDOH 7KH DVVHVVPHQW ZDV WKDW WKH FKDQJHV IDOO ODUJHO\ ZLWKLQ WKH IRXU .10,¶ VFHQDULRV .10,

(15)  7DEOH9DOXHVIRUWKHVWHHULQJSDUDPHWHUVXVHGWRLGHQWLI\WKHIRXU.10,¶FOLPDWHVFHQDULRVIRUUHODWLYHWR 6FHQDULR. *OREDOWHPSHUDWXUH LQFUHDVHLQ. &KDQJHRIDWPRVSKHULF FLUFXODWLRQ. *. ƒ&. :HDN. *. ƒ&. 6WURQJ. :. ƒ&. :HDN. :. ƒ&. VWURQJ. . 7KHLPSDFWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGZHDWKHURQUDLOZD\SHUIRUPDQFH &OLPDWHFKDQJHHIIHFWVVXFKDVH[WUHPHZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVRQWKHRSHUDELOLW\RIGLIIHUHQWWUDQVSRUW PRGHV DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH SHUIRUPDQFH DUH YHU\ GLIIHUHQW DQG FDQ¶W EH XQLTXHO\ GHILQHG 0RUHRYHU WKH LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH IDFWRUV GLIIHUV YHU\ PXFK EHWZHHQ JHRJUDSKLFDO ORFDWLRQV DQG WKH OHYHO RI WKH LQIUDVWUXFWXUHGHYHORSPHQW$FRPSDUDWLYHVWXG\RI&KLQRZVN\HWDO 

(16) RQWKHLPSDFWRISUHGLFWHG WHPSHUDWXUH DQG SUHFLSLWDWLRQ FKDQJHV RQ URDG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LQ GHYHORSLQJ DQG GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV LOOXVWUDWHVWKDWWKHSUHVVXUHIRUGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVWRWUDQVIHUDVLJQLILFDQWDPRXQWRIDQQXDOH[SHQGLWXUH WRRIIVHWWKHHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHVRQURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHZLOOEHJUHDWHUWKDQIRUGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHV 'XLQPHLMHU DQG %RXZNQHJW 

(17)  KDYH GRQH UHVHDUFK RQ UDLO LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IDLOXUHV GXH WR DGYHUVH ZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVLQWKH1HWKHUODQGVLQ\HDU,WDSSHDUVWKDWDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIDOOIDLOXUHV DUH ZHDWKHU UHODWHG 0RVW RI WKH ZHDWKHUUHODWHG IDLOXUHV DUH FDXVHG E\ KLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV LFLQJ VWRUP DQGOLJKWQLQJ .RHWVHDQG5LHWYHOG

(18)  7KH VWXG\ RI 'REQH\ HW DO 

(19)  VKRZV WKDW LQFUHDVHG LQFLGHQWV RI UDLO EXFNOHV RQ WKH 8. UDLOZD\ QHWZRUN DUH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK H[WUHPH KLJK WHPSHUDWXUHV 7KH\ FRQFOXGH WKDW DQ LQFUHDVHG IUHTXHQF\ RI KLJKWHPSHUDWXUH JUHDWHUWKDQƒ&

(20) RFFXUUHQFHZLOOLQFUHDVHWUDFNEXFNOLQJDQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGFRVWVRI. 1777.

(21) 1778. Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 – 1784. KHDWUHODWHGGHOD\VLIWKHWUDFNLVPDLQWDLQHGWRWKHFXUUHQWVWDQGDUG,WKDVEHHQDOVRVKRZQWKDWSUHVHQW GD\DGYHUVHZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQVFDXVHRIDOOXQSODQQHGGHOD\VRQWKH8.UDLOZD\QHWZRUN 7KRUQHV DQG'DYLV

(22) 7DEOHJLYHVDQRYHUYLHZRIWKHSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQUDLOZD\DVVHWV DQGUDLOZD\SHUIRUPDQFH  7KH PDLQ JRDO RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH LPSDFW DVVHVVPHQW LV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH LQWHQVLW\ RI D JLYHQ PHWHRURORJLFDO SDUDPHWHU DQG LQIUDVWUXFWXUH SHUIRUPDQFH SDUDPHWHUV HJ REVHUYHG GLVUXSWLRQ DQG DFFLGHQW UDWHV

(23)  7KLV DOVR LQYROYHV WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI NH\ WKUHVKROGV ZKHUH SUREOHPV RFFXU 7R IXOO\ XQGHUVWDQG WKH LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH LW LV DOVR YHU\ LPSRUWDQW WR WKLQN DERXW WKH IXWXUH WUDQVSRUW QHWZRUN DV KRZ LW ZLOO ORRN OLNH LQ  \HDUV¶ WLPH 7KH UDQJH RI FOLPDWH FKDQJH LPSDFWV SULPDULO\GHSHQGVRQWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\RIWKHQHWZRUNZKLFKKDVEHHQFKDQJLQJGXULQJODVW\HDUV,WLV H[SHFWHG WKDW ZLWK DQ LQFUHDVH LQ SRSXODWLRQ WUDIILF GHQVLW\ DQG YHKLFOH GHYHORSPHQW WKH QHWZRUN EHFRPHVPRUHDQGPRUHYXOQHUDEOH -DURV]HZVNLHWDO

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

(25)  'DPDJHWRHPEDQNPHQWVDQG HDUWKZRUNV 'HWHULRUDWLRQRIVWUXFWXUHV±EULGJHVDQG WXQQHOV FRUURVLRQZLQGIRUFHV

(26)  'DPDJHWRFDWHQDU\DQGVLJQDOLQJ. . . ,PSDFWRQ 5DLOZD\ 3HUIRUPDQFH     'HFUHDVHRI VDIHW\    'HFUHDVHRI DYDLODELOLW\    ,QFUHDVHRI PDLQWHQDQFH FRVWV. . &DVHVWXG\5DQGVWDGUDLOZD\QHWZRUN 3URMHFWSODQ &OLPDWH KDV D VWURQJ HIIHFW RQ WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI UDLOZD\ QHWZRUNV DQG LW LV H[SHFWHG WKDW WKLV LQIOXHQFH ZLOO EH HYHQ VWURQJHU ZLWK WKH DQWLFLSDWHG FOLPDWH FKDQJH +RZHYHU WKH LPSDFW RI FOLPDWH IDFWRUV HJ WHPSHUDWXUH VQRZ UDLQ ZLQG

(27)  RQ UDLOZD\ SHUIRUPDQFH GLIIHUV EHWZHHQ JHRJUDSKLFDO ORFDWLRQV,WUHTXLUHVDGHWDLOHGDQDO\VLVRIWKHSDUWLFXODUQHWZRUNWREHDEOHWRGHFLGHRQWKHPRVWFRVW HIIHFWLYHLQWHUYHQWLRQPHDVXUHV7KHUHVHDUFKSURMHFW6XVWDLQDEOH0DLQWHQDQFH3ROLF\IRU,QIUDVWUXFWXUH 1HWZRUNVIRFXVHVRQWKHUDLOZD\QHWZRUNLQWKH5DQGVWDGWKHPRVWSRSXODWHGUHJLRQRIWKH1HWKHUODQGV DQGKDVWKHIROORZLQJREMHFWLYHV.

(28) Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 – 1784. x GHWHUPLQLQJWKHHIIHFWRIORFDOFOLPDWHFRQGLWLRQVRQWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\DQGGHWHULRUDWLRQRIWKHUDLOZD\ QHWZRUNLQWKH5DQGVWDG x DVVHVVLQJWKHFULWLFDOLW\RILQFUHDVHGSHUIRUPDQFHIDLOXUHVRIDVVHWVJURXSVRIDVVHWVDQGORFDOSDUWVLQ WKH5DQGVWDGUDLOZD\QHWZRUNGXHWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH x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

(29)  DQG WKH WUDFN EHWZHHQ 5RWWHUGDP±7KH+DJXH±8WUHFKW NP

(30) )RUERWKWUDFNVGDWDDERXWDYDLODELOLW\LQWHUPVRIGHOD\VDQG GLVUXSWLRQVRIWUDLQRSHUDWLRQ GXUDWLRQ

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

(32)  KHDW UDLQ VWRUP DQG ZLQWHU. 1779.

(33) 1780. Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 – 1784. FRQGLWLRQV$ILUVWDQDO\VLVRIWKHGDWDVHWVVKRZHGWKDWWKHPRVWZHDWKHUUHODWHGLQFLGHQWVRFFXUUHGGXULQJ ZLQWHUEXWDOVRGXULQJVXPPHUZKHQZDUPWHPSHUDWXUHVDUHLQYROYHG )LJXUH

(34) 7KHDQDO\VLVSURYLGHG EHORZ LV WKHUHIRUH OLPLWHG WR ZLQWHU DQG VXPPHU UHODWHG LQFLGHQWV 7KH GDWD RQ WKH ZHDWKHUUHODWHG LQFLGHQWV ZHUH FRPELQHG ZLWK ZHDWKHU GDWD IRU WKH SHULRG  ZKLFK ZHUH REWDLQHG IURP WKH GDWDEDVHRIWKH.10, 5R\DO'XWFK0HWHRURORJLFDO,QVWLWXWH

(35)  &OLPDWH FKDQJH VFHQDULR GDWD XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ DUH DOVR WDNHQ IURP .10, 

(36)  7LPH VHULHV RI WHPSHUDWXUH DUH JHQHUDWHG E\ WUDQVIRUPLQJ D WLPH VHULHV RI WHPSHUDWXUH XVLQJ D SURJUDP ZKLFK LV SURYLGHG E\ .10, RQ WKHLU ZHEVLWH KWWSFOLPH[SNQPLQO6FHQDULRVBPRQWKO\

(37)  7KLV WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ FDQEHH[HFXWHGIRUWKHDYHUDJHGDLO\WHPSHUDWXUHGDLO\PLQLPXPDQGGDLO\PD[LPXPWHPSHUDWXUH .  )LJ1XPEHURILQFLGHQWVFDXVHGE\ZHDWKHUHIIHFWVLQWKHSHULRGRQWUDFNV 8WUHFKW$PVWHUGDPDQG5RWWHUGDP7KH +DJXH8WUHFKW

(38) . :LQWHUFRQGLWLRQV )URPWKHGDWDVHWIRUWKHSHULRGWKHQXPEHURILQFLGHQWV DQ\W\SHRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHIDLOXUH

(39)  DQG IRU WKH SHULRG  WKH QXPEHU RI LQFLGHQWV DQG GHOD\ PLQXWHV ZHUH DQDO\VHG ZKHUH RQH ORFDWLRQDSSHDUHGWREHPRVWSUREOHPDWLF3UR5DLOJHRFRGHLQWKHOHQJWKRINPLQWKH$PVWHUGDP FRXQW\ ,Q )LJ  UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ LQFLGHQWV DQG ZLQWHU WHPSHUDWXUHV LV JLYHQ DQG LQ )LJ  UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQLQFLGHQWVDQGVQRZIDOODSSHDUDQFHLVSUHVHQWHG.  )LJ1XPEHURILQFLGHQWVIRU*HRFRGH NPOHQJWK

(40) IRU WKHSHULRG. )LJ$SSHDUDQFHRILQFLGHQWVUHODWHGWRWKHDPRXQWRI VQRZIDOO PP

(41) . .

(42) 1781. Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 – 1784. . :HDWKHUGDWDZHUHFROOHFWHGIURPWKHPHWHRURORJLFDOVWDWLRQDW6FKLSKROFORVHVWWRWKHVHOHFWHGWUDFN VHFWLRQ)URPWKH)LJLWFDQEHVHHQWKDWWKHUHDUHWZRSHDNVZLWKWKHKLJKHVWQXPEHURILQFLGHQWV$WD WHPSHUDWXUHRIƒ&WKHKHDWLQJV\VWHPRIVZLWFKHVIDLOHGDQGDWƒ&WUDFNDQGVZLWFKHVZHUHEORFNHGE\ VQRZ,Q)LJWKHGDWDDERXWVQRZIDOODUHFRUUHODWHGWRWKHLQFLGHQWDSSHDUDQFHDWWKHVHOHFWHGORFDWLRQ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH LQFLGHQWV XVXDOO\ KDSSHQHG DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI ZLQWHU RU ZKHQWKHILUVWVQRZIHOO ,Q RUGHU WR LQYHVWLJDWH KRZ IXWXUH QXPEHU RI LQFLGHQWV ZLOO FKDQJH XQGHU WKH IRXU .10, FOLPDWH VFHQDULRVDVLPSOHWKHRUHWLFDOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHFOLPDWHDW6FKLSKRO '-)

(43) DQGEDVHOLQH LQFLGHQWV '-)

(44) ZDVXVHGEDVHGRQ$QGHUVVRQDQG&KDSPDQ 

(45)  1XPEHURILQFLGHQWDW7HPS[1XPEHURIGD\SHUZLQWHUDWGDLO\PLQLPXP7HPS[ . 

(46) . 8QGHU IXWXUH FOLPDWH WKH QXPEHU RI LQFLGHQWV ZLOO GHFUHDVH LQ ZLQWHUWLPH )LJXUH 

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ƒ& LQWHUYDO DOWKRXJK WKH LQFLGHQWVDERYHƒ&DUHTXLWHLPSRUWDQWDVZHOO7KHLQVWDQFHVWKDWWKHPD[LPXPGDLO\WHPSHUDWXUHLV KLJKHUWKDQƒ&DUHQRWDVIUHTXHQWDVWHPSHUDWXUHVEHWZHHQDQGƒ& )LJXUHVKRZVWKH3UREDELOLW\'HQVLW\)XQFWLRQV 3')¶V

(48) IRUPD[LPXPWHPSHUDWXUHIRUWKHEDVHOLQH VLWXDWLRQ %/

(49) DQGWKHIRXUFOLPDWHVFHQDULRVLQDQ\HDUSHULRGIURPWR,WLVFOHDUIURPWKLV JUDSKWKDWWKHWHPSHUDWXUHLVDERXWWRULVHLQDOOIRXUVFHQDULRV7KLVZLOOKDYHDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKH.

(50) 1782. Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 – 1784. QXPEHU RI LQFLGHQWV DV ZHOO ,Q WKH ZRUVW FDVH WKH\ PD\ LQFUHDVH IURP  WR MXVW RYHU  SHU  \HDU SHULRG .  )LJ1XPEHURILQFLGHQWVDVDIXQFWLRQRIWHPSHUDWXUH REVHUYHGDW&DEDXZ

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

(52) Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 –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³6XVWDLQDEOH 0DLQWHQDQFH 3ROLF\ IRU ,QIUDVWUXFWXUH1HWZRUNVLQWKH5DQGVWDG$FOLPDWHFKDQJHSHUVSHFWLYH´VXSSRUWHGE\1:21HWKHUODQGV 2UJDQL]DWLRQIRU6FLHQWLILF5HVHDUFK 5HIHUHQFHV $QGHUVVRQ$. &KDSPDQ/ 

(53) 7KHLPSDFWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQZLQWHUURDGPDLQWHQDQFHDQGWUDIILFDFFLGHQWVLQ:HVW 0LGODQGV8.$FFLGHQW$QDO\VLVDQG3UHYHQWLRQ  %DNHU&-&KDSPDQ/4XLQQ$' 'REQH\. 

(54) &OLPDWH&KDQJHDQGWKH5DLOZD\,QGXVWU\3URF,0HFK(3DUW&- 0HFKDQLFDO(QJLQHHULQJ6FLHQFH  %OHV7(QQHVVHU<)DGHXLOKH--)DOHPR6/LQG%0HQV05D\06DQGHUVHQ) 

(55) 5LVN0DQDJHPHQWIRU5RDGV LQD&KDQJLQJ&OLPDWH'HOLYHUDEOH1U±7HFKQLFDOUHSRUW5,0$52&&SURMHFWZLWKLQ(5$1(752$'SURJUDP  %UHVVHU$+0%HUN00YDQGHQ%RUQ*-YDQ%UHH/YDQ*DDOHQ):/LJWYRHW:YDQ0LQQHQ-*:LWPHU0&+ 1HWKHUODQGV(QYLURQPHQW$VVHVVPHQW$JHQF\ 

(56) 7KHHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHLQWKH1HWKHUODQGV013UHSRUWQXPEHU   &KLQRZVN\3+D\OHV&6FKZHLNHU$6WU]HSHN16WU]HSHN.6FKORVVHU$ 

(57) &OLPDWHFKDQJHFRPSDUDWLYHLPSDFWRQ GHYHORSLQJDQGGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHV(QJLQHHULQJ3URMHFW2UJDQL]DWLRQ-XUQDO 0DUFK

(58)   'REQH\.%DNHU&-&KDSPDQ/ 4XLQQ$' 

(59) 7KHIXWXUHFRVWWRWKH8QLWHG.LQJGRP VUDLOZD\QHWZRUNKHDWUHODWHG GHOD\VDQGEXFNOHVFDXVHGE\WKHSUHGLFWHGLQFUHDVHLQKLJKVXPPHUWHPSHUDWXUHVRZLQJWRFOLPDWHFKDQJH3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH ,QVWLWXWLRQRI0HFKDQLFDO(QJLQHHUV3DUW)-RXUQDORI5DLODQG5DSLG7UDQVLW-DQXDU\YROSS  'REQH\.%DNHU&-4XLQ$' &KDSPDQQ/ 

(60) 4XDQWLI\LQJWKHHIIHFWVRIKLJKVXPPHUWHPSHUDWXUHVGXHWRFOLPDWH FKDQJHRQEXFNOLQJDQGUDLOUHODWHGGHOD\VLQVRXWKHDVW.LQJGRP0HWHURORJLFDO$SSOLFDWLRQV  'XLQPHLMHU$*3 %RXZNQHJW5 

(61) %HWURXZEDDUKHLG5DLOLQIUDVWUXFWXXU 5HOLDELOLW\5DLO,QIUDVWUXFWXUH

(62)  3URUDLO8WUHFKW  (GZDUGV-% 

(63) 7KHWHPSRUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIURDGDFFLGHQWVLQDGYHUVHZHDWKHU0HWHRURORJLFDO$SSOLFDWLRQV± GRL6  (GZDUGV-% 

(64) 7KH5HODWLRQVKLS%HWZHHQ5RDG$FFLGHQW6HYHULW\DQG5HFRUGHG:HDWKHU-RXUQDORI6DIHW\5HVHDUFK 9ROXPH,VVXH:LQWHU3DJHV. 1783.

(65) 1784. Irina Stipanovic Oslakovic et al. / Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 48 (2012) 1775 – 1784.  (QHL5&'ROO6.OXJ,3DUW]VFK16HGODFHN-.LHO11HVWHURYD/5XG]LNDLWH$3DSDQLNRODRX 90LWVDNLV 

(66)  ³9XOQHUDELOLW\RIWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV0DLQUHSRUW7UDQVSRUW6HFWRU9XOQHUDELOLWLHV´ZLWKLQWKHUHVHDUFKSURMHFW:($7+(5 :HDWKHU([WUHPHV,PSDFWVRQ7UDQVSRUW6\VWHPVDQG+D]DUGVIRU(XURSHDQ5HJLRQV

(67) IXQGHGXQGHUWKHWKIUDPHZRUN SURJUDPRIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ3URMHFWFRRUGLQDWRU)UDXQKRIHU,6,.DUOVUXKH  +XUNYDQGHQ%.OHLQ7DQN$/HQGHULQN*YDQ8OGHQ$YDQ2OGHQERUJK*-.DWVPDQ&YDQGHQ%ULQN+.HOOHU) %HVVHPELQGHU-%XUJHUV*.RPHQ*+D]HOHJHU:'ULMIKRXW6.10,6FLHQWLILF5HSRUW 

(68) :5.10, &OLPDWH&KDQJH6FHQDULRVIRUWKH1HWKHUODQGV  ,3&&&OLPDWH&KDQJH 

(69) 6\QWKHVLV5HSRUW&RQWULEXWLRQRI:RUNLQJ*URXSV,,,DQG,,,WRWKH)RXUWK$VVHVVPHQW5HSRUWRI WKH,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH&RUH:ULWLQJ7HDP3DFKDXUL5.DQG5HLVLQJHU$ (GV

(70) *HQHYD 6ZLW]HUODQGSS  -DURV]ZHVNL'&KDSPDQ/ 3HWWV- 

(71)  $VVHVVLQJWKHSRWHQWLDOLPSDFWRIFOLPDWHFKDQJHRQWUDQVSRUWDWLRQWKHQHHGIRU DQLQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\DSSURDFK-RXUQDORI7UDQVSRUW*HRJUDSK\±  .10, 

(72) .OLPDDWYHUDQGHULQJLQ1HGHUODQGDDQYXOOLQJHQRSGH.10, VFHQDULR V  .RHWVH0- 5LHWYHOG3 

(73) *HYROJHQYDQ.OLPDDWYHUDQGHULQJYRRUGH7UDQVSRUWVHFWRU(HQ2YHU]LFKWYDQGH/LWHUDWXXU 7LMGVFKULIW9HUYRHUVZHWHQVFKDS 

(74) SS±  .RHWVH0- 5LHWYHOG3 

(75) 7KH,PSDFWRI&OLPDWH&KDQJHDQG:HDWKHURQ7UDQVSRUW$Q2YHUYLHZRI(PSLULFDO)LQGLQJV 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ5HVHDUFK3DUW' 

(76) ±  /HYLlNDQJDV37XRPLQHQ$0RODULXV5.RMR+6FKDEHO-7RLYRQHQ6.HUlQHQ-/XGYLJVHQ-9DMGD$ 7XRPHQYLUWD+-XJD,1XUPL35DXKDOD-5HKP)*HU]70XHKOKDXVHQ76FKZHLJKRIHU-0LFKDHOLGHV6 3DSDGDNLV0'RW]HN1*URHQHPHLMHU3 

(77) ([WUHPHZHDWKHULPSDFWVRQWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV(:(173URMHFW 'HOLYHUDEOH'KWWSZZZYWWILSXEOLFDWLRQVLQGH[MVS  3DSDQLNRODRX90LWVDNLV.&KU\VRVWRPRX&7ULQNV,3DUW]VFK 

(78) ³,QQRYDWLYHHPHUJHQF\PDQDJHPHQWVWUDWHJLHV´ 'HOLYHUDEOH'ZLWKLQWKHUHVHDUFKSURMHFW:($7+(5 :HDWKHU([WUHPHV,PSDFWVRQ7UDQVSRUW6\VWHPVDQG+D]DUGVIRU (XURSHDQ5HJLRQV

(79) IXQGHGXQGHUWKHWKIUDPHZRUNSURJUDPRIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ3URMHFWFRRUGLQDWRU)UDXQKRIHU ,6,  7KRUQHV-('DYLV%: 

(80) 0LWLJDWLQJWKHLPSDFWRIZHDWKHUDQGFOLPDWHRQUDLOZD\RSHUDWLRQVLQWKH8.3URFHHGLQJVRI WKH$60(,(((-RLQW5DLO&RQIHUHQFHLQ:DVKLQJWRQ'&$SULO . .

(81)

Referenties

GERELATEERDE DOCUMENTEN

7KLV SDUW RI WKLV WKHVLV HYDOXDWHG 8$( IRU XWHULQH ÀEURLGV ZKLFK KDV EHHQ

RQ: How did the quality newspapers in Norway and the UK (the Guardian, the Daily Telegraph, Aftenposten and Adresseavisen) portray the issue of climate change in the period around

1HYHUWKHOHVVWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\DOVRKDVVRPHOLPLWDWLRQVWKDWVKRXOGEHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQW ZKHQ LQWHUSUHWLQJ WKH UHVXOWV )LUVW HVWLPDWHV RI UHOLDELOLW\ LQ WHUPV

%HFDXVH RI WKH OLPLWDWLRQV RI WKH DYDLODEOH PHDVXUHV RI UHZDUG DQG SXQLVKPHQW VHQVLWLYLW\ WKHUH LV D FOHDU QHHG IRU D QHZ TXHVWLRQQDLUH WKDW

7KH VHFRQG PRGHO VKRZV WKDW JHQHUDO VXSSRUW IRU YLJLODQWLVP DJDLQ KDV WKH ODUJHVW. LPSDFW RI  DOO DWWLWXGHV ,Q OLQH ZLWK K\SRWKHVLV - SHRSOH ZKR

The main objective of COST action Tu1301 ‘NORM4Building’ is the exchange of multidisciplinary knowledge and experience (radiological, technical, economical, legislative,

GHYHORSPHQWRIYHQRXVWKURPERHPEROLVP 97( LQ  36GHILFLHQF\KDVEHHQZHOO HVWDEOLVKHGDVDULVNIDFWRUIRU 97(VLQFHWKHQ  36LVDYLWDPLQ

,QVKRUW,ZLOOKHUHGHVFULEHWKHRXWOLQHIRUWKHDOORJHQHLFGRQRUVHDUFKSURFHVVIRUDSDWLHQW ZKR ODFNV DQ +/$ JHQRW\SLFDOO\  LGHQWLFDO VLEOLQJ RU RWKHU