Transitional information environments : mass media as an incubator of political agency for marginalised social groups in Yemen

Mass Media as an incubator of

polit-ical agency for marginalised social

groups in Yemen.

Jebal Contin Kennedy

MSc International Development Studies

University of Amsterdam

Transitional Information Environments

Graduate School of Social Sciences

Department of Geography, Planning and International Development Studies

MSc International Development Studies

Transitional information environments:

Mass media as an incubator of political agency for marginalised social

groups in Yemen

Name: Jebal Contin Kennedy

Student number: 11181184

Supervisor: Dr. Dennis Rodgers

Second reader: Dr. Michaela Hordijk

Word count: 25,423

A well established body of literature addresses the role social media has played

in the 2011 trend referred to as the ‘Arab Spring’. In stark contrast, little

atten-tion has been paid to the role of mass media in the transiatten-tion settings of the

Ar-ab Spring, and yet less attention has been paid to its role in the national-level

post-uprising reform periods the Arab spring states have all since experienced.

Although inherent hardships in researching broadcast media in the autocratic

regimes of the pre 2011 Middle East may have made this subject an analytical

dead end, during the transitional period, in certain settings it seems mass media

assumed an entirely new sociopolitical function, broadening its scope as a

component of transitional processes. Hence this study asks what potential

func-tion mass media can have for the building of the political capacities of

marginal-ised social groups in transitional settings.

Using qualitative methods such as semi structured interviews and focus

group discussions, this study has sought to understand the nature of the

rela-tionship between mass media and marginalised social groups during the

Yem-eni transition process. Particularly during the period of reform immediately

fol-lowing the ‘revolution’ of 2011, a private broadcast media sector emerged,

providing previously marginalised social groups, namely youth and women, with

a platform through which to engage in public dialogue on a mass scale.

Find-ings reveal that youth and women were able to harness the mass media

plat-form during the transitional period to gain exposure as public figures and in turn

as sociopolitical actors of significance. This research approaches mass media

in the Yemeni transitional setting as both a political opportunity structure for

marginalised social groups, and as a particularly useful tool in their repertoire of

contention against those forces which had marginalised them politically prior to

the transition. In response to findings suggesting that social media is an elitist

medium in development settings such as Yemen, this research contributes to

the modest body of literature arguing for the potential of mass media as a

ven-ue and catalyst for the emergence of participatory governance structures in

transitional settings.

Keywords: Mass media, Transitional settings, Marginalised Social Groups,

Polit-ical agency

I would like to convey my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Dennis Rodgers, for his

support throughout the writing process, at times in the face of uncooperative contributions

of my own. His vast insight has helped shaped this dissertation for the better, and his

un-wavering attentiveness to helping me through the various obstacles I’ve faced along the

way has been very much appreciated.

I would also like to thank my field supervisor, Dr. Lorenza Rossi, and long time family

friend, Marta Colburn for their vast contributions to my field-work and data collection.

With-out them I would not have been able to gain the insight I have into this topic nor meet the

various people who have contributed to the completion of this research.

Last but certainly not least, I would like to thank my mother, Roberta Contin, for all the help

along the way. Her contributions to this study, constant moral and emotional support she

has given throughout this process, and for the example she has set. Without her I would

undoubtedly not be where I am today, nor be inspired to complete anything of the sort. I

would also like to thank my late father, Tim Kennedy, for being the inspiration that has led

me to study development and realise the ever growing pertinence of the field.

NDC:

National Dialogue Conference of 2013-2014

MSGs:

Marginalised Social Groups

JMP:

Joint Meeting Parties

GPC:

General People’s Congress

GCC:

Gulf Cooperative Council

MOI:

Ministry of Information (Yemen)

IOM:

International Organisation for Migration

UNHCR:

United Nations High Commission for Refugees

INGOs:

International Non Governmental Organisations

NGOs:

Non Governmental Organisations

MENA:

Middle East North Africa

Abstract

Acknowledgments

Acronyms

1.

Introduction ……….1

2. Theoretical framework

2.2 Mass media in transitional settings……….5

2.3 Civil society and Marginalised Social Groups in the transitional setting…………..8

2.4 Democratisation……….9

3. Research questions………12

4. Conceptual scheme

………13

5. Operationalisation table

……….14

6. Methodology

6.3 Epistemology and Ontology……….18

6.4 Data gathering………..18

6.5 Data analysis……….20

6.6 Scope and limitations……….…20

6.7 Ethical considerations………21

6.8 Life-work histories………..….22

7. Context / Findings

7.1 Elite bargaining and regime schism in the transitional setting………..23

7.1.1. Regime Schism ………..24

7.2 The hijacking of the revolution and mass media in the repertoire of contention..27

7.2.1 Social media and the revolution………..29

7.2.2 The birth of private broadcast media……….30

7.3 Sectoral permeability political agency ……….31

8. Life-Work histories

………..34

9. Findings

9.2 Media sector reform: aspects and benefits………..48

9.3 Ownership of popular representations and shifting perceptions………..50

9.4 Summary………53

10. Conclusion

………..54

10.1 Discussion………...56

10.2 Implications for policy and further research………..58

1. Introduction

Social media has been widely recognised as playing an important role in the political and social dimensions of the Arab Spring, due to its nature as a mostly unregulated and uncensored platform. Accordingly, it is not hard to understand why it has received such attention in scholarly literature on the Arab spring and ensuing political transition processes. Mass media on the other hand, has not commanded similar attention. However, the increased usage of social media as a political mobilisation platform during the Arab spring suggests it brought with it a change in the re-gions information environments.

In Yemen, during the post Arab spring period, i.e. 2012 onwards, what had been an almost exclusively oligarchy-run broadcast media sector, was slowly liberalised to allow for new, inde-pendent and privately run and owned broadcast media entities to begin broadcasting. At the local level, this reflected a wave of sociopolitical, economic, and cultural changes which the domestic and regional Arab spring trends impacted in Yemen. The civil upheaval labeled now as the Arab spring incited a period which confused and altered the fundamental sociopolitical tenets the coun-try had been operating according to for the duration of its modern history. While the nature of the revolutionary movement was such that it ultimately fell between the cracks of other more significant political fissures, the Arab spring was able to incite a period of, albeit limited, reform. Politically speaking, this meant a restructuring of several public sectors, which in some cases, such as that of the media sector, seemingly meant merely removing the regulatory framework which had been put in place to control it.

In the media sector this resulted in a blossoming period during which non-partisan, com-munity-oriented broadcast entities began broadcasting programming catered primarily to the con-tentious ambitions of the new generation of sociopolitical actors, and towards elaborating a new socio-cultural and political environment.

Given the presence of this phenomenon in Yemen, the nature of the Arab spring move-ments, and a significant gap in knowledge on the sociopolitical impact of mass media in transitional contexts, there is particular interest in exploring the dynamics of mass media’s relationship with marginalised social groups in transition/democratisation settings. This study assumes the case of Yemen and its transition have a great deal of theoretical value that may be extrapolated to a wider population. Although literature abounds on the role of mass media in democratised countries and ‘emerging democracies’ it seems very little research has been done on its role in transitional set-tings. As noted by Jebril et al, “…there is very little research which would explore how exactly the media fulfill their normatively ascribed role and contribute to democratic institution building in the transitions countries….studies should extend our knowledge of the mechanisms of media effects in non-Western settings, and enhance our understanding of the dynamics of information environ-ments and audiences in transitional settings.” (Jebril et al 2013)

In light of this observation, this thesis aims to expand current knowledge on the dynamics of mass-media and politics in transitional settings, and in order to further a conceptual approach to

the role of mass media in the formation of democratic processes, by looking at how marginalised social groups have exploited mass media to gain sociopolitical agency during the Yemeni transi-tion. Following a presentation of the theoretical and research frameworks, the research context and a partial presentation of findings will establish the parameters in which this phenomenon oc-curred and what the contextual specificities of the case suggest with regards to the phenomenon of mass media generating political agency for marginalised social groups in Yemen. Finally, a com-plete presentation of the findings and related discussion will be presented.

2. Theoretical framework

2.1 Mass media and politics

Although there is no one definition of the mechanism through which media influences poli-tics in democratic settings, a well recognised account of this dynamic is presented by Benedict An-derson in his book ‘Imagined communities’ (1991). In the benchmark work, AnAn-derson (1991) estab-lishes a basic framework on how mass media has influenced political processes. This framework is illustrated using the emergence of print technology in fifteenth century Europe, and pointing to the shifting linguistic tendencies of the time. It suggests that Martin Luther’s protestant thesis was the spark which, simultaneous to the developments of the decreasing popularity of Latin as a print lan-guage and conversely, rise in usage of vernacular lanlan-guages in print and politics, and the rise in usage and diffusion of the printing press, catalysed the emergence of the first mass media in the modern sense. These findings are used to indicate that the rise of mass media influenced and co-incided with a major shift in the political environment of Europe.

“The coalition between Protestantism and print-capitalism, exploiting cheap popular editions, quickly created large new reading publics -not least among them merchants and women, who typically knew little to no Latin - and simultaneously mobilised them for politico - religious purposes. Inevitably, it was not merely the church that was shak-en to its core. The same earthquake produced Europe’s first important non-dynastic, non-city states in the Dutch republic and the Commonwealth of the puritans…” (Ander-son 1991, p.40).

Mass media is thus defined at a basic level by its ability to appeal to a wide yet finite pub-lic, and that public’s ability to access and engage with it. This early definition also argues that through these features, mass media has the inherent capacity to serve as a platform for the mobili-sation of new political actors that may have been marginalised prior to the capability offered by mass media. This will be a central theme of mass media explored in this paper, especially with re-gards to the framing of research questions. Essentially, it will be a priority to understand whether in transitional settings such as Yemen’s, this basic feature of mass media as a political mobilisation tool holds up.

At a basic level, it is evident there is a dichotomy between mass media and politics, and that mass media is a function of political processes. Anderson’s (1991) account of the European case further suggests it is also a potentially destructive contender to politics. Accepting this as a common feature of the mass media politics relationship establishes a normative assumption that can be used to understand wider patterns within political processes and the participants therein.

Another perspective on this relationship is illustrated in the use of media for propaganda purposes in early 20th century Europe. Stromberg examines how the use of mass media for prop-aganda purposes in fascist Germany and Italy led many to support the ‘hypodermic needle theory’ (Stromberg 2015) of mass media. This theory suggests mass media was used as a hypodermic needle to inject popular agendas into the public as a means of political mobilisation. It is possibly one of the most evident examples of the mass media-politics relationship in modern times. This belief is shared by certain scholars of development communication such as Sterling, who is skepti-cal of the practiskepti-cality of development communication, citing that its implementation through mass media has been used to condition populations and prepare them for modernisation (Sterling 2012).

However damning Sterling (2012) may be of development communication, the framework suggests that mass media can offer political agency to marginalised sociopolitical actors. Most no-tably, the work of Freire suggests communication has inherent properties of inclusivity and can thus offer a counterbalance to the natural asymmetry of information that is characteristic of devel-opment settings (Freire 1980). In this sense we may perceive of mass media/communication as offering politically marginalised actors access to a symmetrical information forums (Freire 1980), and with regards to political processes, agency therein. This notion is supported by Anderson’s ar-guments on print in vernacular languages during the run up to the renaissance and as a means of political mobilisation. With this normative assumption on mass media’s political function, there is interests in questioning to what extent mass media can provide ‘symmetrical’ (Freire 1980) infor-mation environments, and what political value such environments may yield in transitional settings.

In a reflection of the basic nature of this theory however, Stromberg writes that it was not upheld when put to empirical testing, and that what was proven through empirical testing was that mass media generally acts as an ‘agent of reinforcement’ (Stromberg 2015, p.174) rather than hav-ing the ability to significantly alter political perceptions. The scope of this assumption is limited though, given that Stromberg’s empirical testing was carried out in the democratic setting of the US. Of note however is Stromberg’s finding of a concise causal mechanism illustrating how this reinforcement capability functions. “More federal funds were allocated to areas where the media covered the political representative more” (Snyder & Stromberg 2010, p.1) this suggests that “The volume of coverage across issues drives voter responsiveness” (Stromberg 2015, p.182). Strom-berg’s findings indicate that media can affect political outcomes by having an agenda-setting ef-fect, wherein voters are informed of an issue and the political representative’s stance on it through the media, thus providing the issue with either supporters or opponents when it is voted on

(Stromberg 2015). While Stromberg’s findings are fairly limited in their scope, the ‘agenda setting’ characteristic is visible in a wider range of cases. Considering that in transitional settings there are often a wide range of variables that may impact political processes to function in non-democratic ways suggests the theory falls short of being applicable to non democratic settings.

In lieu of this assumption, it may be beneficial to question how the political agency of civil society groups, (which are a main feature of democracy) are impacted by mass media in

transi-tional settings, where a clear political agenda and corresponding processes may not be clearly de-fined.

The theory can nevertheless offer a basic theoretical framework for the function of mass media in politics, and can be adapted for applicability in transitional settings. Agenda-setting theory is elaborated by McCombss and Valenzuela in support of Stromberg’s argument, furthering the assumption that the political processes which are affected by media are democratic, and that the mass media’s main function is to disseminate information. (McCombss & Valenzuela 2013) How-ever, the theory can also be applied to cases of authoritarian regimes, where it makes sense in a ‘hypodermic needle’ capacity. (Stromberg 2015) This is a common characteristic of propaganda regimes, and is not limited to the early fascist governments of Italy and Germany (Stromberg 2015), and no less in transitional settings where it can be harnessed by disruptive elements.

“News media is the only source of information we have on abstract economic top-ics…some topics/issue are unobtrusive and appear only in the news…consequently, the less obtrusive an issue, the more individuals will rely on the news media for infor-mation on the issue and the stronger the setting effects can be. The agenda-setting role of the news media is not limited to focusing public attention on a particular set of issues, but also influences our understanding and perspective on the topics in the news.” (McCombs & Valenzuela 2013, p.47).

The ability of the mass media to influence our understanding of topics in the news is thus a highly generalisable aspect of its function. As such, in approaching the issue of mass media in transitional settings as a sub-theme of the general mass-media politics relationship, ‘agenda-setting theory’ (McCombs and Valenzuela 2013) offers a practicable model with which to under-stand how mass media may incite political change. This will be a central theme inspiring the re-search sub questions. Understanding if the ‘agenda setting’ (McCombs and Valenzuela 2013) ef-fect of mass media also occurs in transitional settings will help clarify to what extent mass media can be used as a platform for political actors to become involved in political processes.

In the following section an evaluation of material on the role of mass media in political pro-cesses in transitional settings will address some of the gaps present n the mass media-politics ma-terial.

2.2 Mass media in transitional settings

Elaborating this framework begins with the statement by Jebril et. al. (2013) on the need for further research into information dynamics in transitional settings. Based on the suggestions made by Anderson and Stromberg it is argued that media serves to consolidate political constituencies

and garner support for political ends, fortifying the ‘hypodermic needle theory’ (Stromberg 2015). It does however remain to be seen whether in transitional settings this is the case, and whether the ‘hypodermic needle’ (Stromberg 2015) model can be used to articulate processes wherein bottom-up political agency is facilitated through mass media. Being that understanding how this process works is a central aim of this thesis, the following section will detail the primary theoretical factors needed to approach the issue and implement the research.

Jebril et al have published an extensive study examining ‘What is Known about the Role of

Mass Media in Transitions to Democracy’ in a large sample of developing countries (Jebril et al

2013). The report concludes that studies on mass media in transition or ‘democratisation’ settings overlook much of the dynamism and particularities of such processes given the normative assump-tions about the role of media in established democracies. These normative assumpassump-tions, as out-lined by Anderson, Stromberg and Agenda Setting Theory, also assume that mass media is a me-dium which is accessible to large numbers of people in any given population.

In light of this assumption we may begin to develop a perspective on the way mass media offers political agency to marginalised social groups along these lines. It is safe to assume that in any given transition setting there are multiple actors vying for support. So, assuming that gaining wider support is in itself a political agenda, agenda setting theory can explain how through appeal-ing to a wider public, mass media allows for previously marginalised sociopolitical actors to be af-forded political agency through their power to support or not support a particular political issue or representative.

Although this link is yet to be referenced by the literature on this field, we may begin illus-trating it through interpretations of how media privatisation and government intervention in the me-dia sector function in, and the political and development characteristics of, transitional settings

An exemplary case study which illustrates many of these issues is that of Somali-land and its Transitional Federal Government’s (TFG) treatment of private media. Stremlau (2013) evaluates the reasoning behind the TFG’s barring of private media broadcasting, engaging with arguments on media privatisation and its potential use as a mobilisation tool for disruptive political elements, which, although disruptive are as such due to their being kept at the fringes of the political domain prior to the transition stage. In ‘Hostages of peace: the politics of radio liberalisation in Somaliland’, “…the messy realities of a deeply imperfect media system in a volatile environment” (Stremlau et al 2013, p.242) are explored in-depth to understand how in a case which may be striving for democ-racy in a controlled manner, mass media interacts with politics and the multitude of political actors that a democratic process must include.

This study offers two important assumptions. On one hand, the case reveals that while mass media - particularly radio - can be harnessed by violent factions that inflame factionalism, it is nevertheless a widely accessible platform that offers political actors the chance to voice their posi-tions to a wide audience, in turn mobilising them and giving them political agency. On the other hand, it suggests that in transitional settings the media is and can be a primary social actor. In

ref-erence to the Jebril et. al. (2013) case, this suggests that media does have the potential to alter political outcomes. Considering this position within the Imagined Communities (Anderson 1991) context then, it becomes clear mass media retains an inherent power in the political domain, and in an agenda-setting sense can help coalesce political support through its being able to address a wide public. Being that the case of Somalia and its transitional government is one of the most simi-lar cases to Yemen explored from the media vantage point, a guiding theme within this study’s re-search sub-questions will be to what extent the media sector was controlled in the transitional con-text, and whether this reflects dominant assumptions on such cases or not. More importantly how-ever, it seems as though Stremlau (2013) is confident in the assumption that mass media can be harnessed by factions wishing to disrupt political processes. Likewise then, it should be questioned whether only violent factions wishing to disrupt political processes are viable agents of media as a political appliance, or if contentious actors wishing to contribute to democratisation processes are also able to harness media for this end.

In a similar context, Puddenphat argues “limited access to - or lack of engagement with - the media is a function of poverty and poor education…it contributes to an environment that can undermine democratic development” (Puddenphat 2011, p. 10). Assuming then that in authoritari-an regimes governments make concerted efforts to quash education authoritari-and in turn dissent, it makes sense that mass media, as a medium for the attainment of information, would be well controlled. This further suggests media does have a particularly significant potential to impact political pro-cesses through its capacity as a medium to address wide demographics and motivate them politi-cally.

On a regional level, Hafez (2008) examines the capacity of mass media in the ‘soft authori-tarian’ countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), suggesting there is significant theo-retical value in approaching transitional settings through the ‘negotiated system changes’ Hafez 2008) framework. Hafez argues that it is commonly assumed mass media is not a primary social actor, but is rather determined by governments or political parties. He also suggests that in cases of ‘negotiated systems change’ (Hafez 2008) mass media can be harnessed by the likes of the op-position or civil society and pose real and evident challenges to the regime, seconding the Strem-lau observations on Somalia. (Hafez 2008) As a theoretical grounding point then, it may be argued that a common trait of ‘soft’ authoritarian regimes (in many cases predecessors to transition set-tings) is their control of mass media due to the assumption that it offers political agency to groups outside of the autocratic apparatus, i.e. marginalised ones. Hafez (2008) illustrates this citing a re-cent growth in private media outlets in the MENA region. He argues that while in transitional setting in the MENA region the media does not generally offer the powerful potential for altering the politi-cal environment that many opposition entities expect from it, it can, and is a powerful medium civil society groups can harness to challenge the status quo. (Hafez 2008) “Media’s influence on politi-cal transformation processes increases with the number & quality of ties between media and op-position groups as well as other elements of civil society…” (Hafez 2008, p.322). If we are to

as-sume this as a maxim then, there is potential for an elaboration of mass media in soft authoritarian regimes as having potential for the enhancement of political agency of civil society and opposition groups when said settings become transitional ones.

The ‘Negotiated systems change’ (Hafez 2008) model is of particular interest in the case of Yemen given the nature of its transition; forthcoming engagements with literature by Bayat (2014) will suggest that the nature of the Arab Spring movements was more reformatory than revolution-ary. (Bayat 2014) As such, the ‘negotiated systems change’ (Hafez 2008) framework is highly rele-vant to the study.

2.3 Civil Society and Marginalised Social Groups in the transitional setting

Multiple perspectives exist on the structure and nature of civil society in the Middle East. However, given the presence of popular assumptions concerning political agency in authoritarian regimes, a normative definition of civil society does not suffice in analysing it within such contexts. Taking analytical hints from frameworks such as ‘Middle Eastern exceptionalism’ (Salamey 2009), which posits Middle Eastern regimes are ‘resilient to democratisation’ (Salamey 2009), it would seem a deconstruction and re-application of certain normative tenets of the traditional civil society framework may be necessary in order to accurately depict the sociopolitical nature of civil society in the Middle East. The distinct nature of civil society in the Middle Eastern, and more importantly, transitional context of Yemen, is of particular importance to this research. Accordingly, it must be clarified that this paper will be examining a phenomenon by which civic actors acting in unison have been able to influence a course of political transformation. This does not mean I will be exam-ining civil society a distinct entity in the Yemeni context for the following reasons.

With respect to transitional settings, scholarship suggests that the ‘transition paradigm’ (Carothers 2002) does not effectively identify what civil society is, and how it influences transition processes. Understandably so; for the case of Yemen, the sociopolitical character of the civil so-ciety includes tribal groups and associations (many of which had in the past been armed insur-gents or mercenaries), social service provision NGO’s, professional syndicates and religious relief-aid organisations (many of which were known to have ties to the regime and opaque financing and expenditure records) are just a few of the groups which are generally assumed under the civil so-ciety label. Tribal groups are especially troublesome because they are in many cases the primary clients of state patronage, and often times the agents of disruption of democratic processes, as was the case with the Yemeni elections of 1993 and the 2013-14 NDC. (Schwedler 2002) It is evi-dent then that on the one level, civil society in the Yemeni transitional context has definitional ob-stacles. It does not necessarily denote civil society in the normative sense, nor do the organisa-tions assumed under that category fit with those generally perceived as being civil society actors.

We may thus move to understand the character of the groups being examined in this re-search using the civil society framework as a jumping off point.

Theoretically speaking, the civil upheaval which occurred during the 2011 wave of regional upheavals known as the ‘Arab Spring’ did not suffice in fitting the theoretical structure of a ‘revolu-tion’. There was little in the way of “...overthrow or repudiation and the thorough replacement of an established government or political system by the people governed.” (dictionary.com) The event may be described as ‘revolutionary’ in that it had not occurred in the past. However, a more accu-rate depiction of this event would characterise it as the coming together of a milieu of individuals from demographics which have been marginalised in the preceding body politic, demonstrating their dissatisfaction with the status quo and inciting reform. Bayat (2014) has argued many of the social movements which occurred during the Arab Spring are more realistically defined as ‘refo-lutions’ (Keane 2011) than revolutions.

“While the protagonists succeeded in creating the magic of Tahrir (the Egyptian revolu-tion’s main venue) little changed in state institutions…Consequently, what came to transpire in the end were not revolutions in the twentieth century sense of the term, but ‘refo-lutions’ — the revolutionary movements which aimed to compel the tyrannical in-cumbent states to reform themselves on behalf of the revolutionaries.” (Bayat 2014, p.597).

Similarly, in Yemen, the revolutionary campaign clearly did not succeed in overthrowing the state and establishing its own political order. It did however impact a rapprochement between those social groups which had for the decades been excluded from political life, and the main-stream body politic. Consequently, constructing a theoretical label for the protagonists which have perpetrated those aspects of the Yemeni transition being discussed in this research requires the use of a broader definition than ‘civil society’ denotes. Moreover, as briefly references above, the notion of ‘negotiated systems change’ (Hafez 2008) is verifiable through the ‘refolutionary' (Keane 2011) model, wherein it is suggested that civic upheavals were ultimately responded to strategical-ly and with no intention of repudiating the status quo. This notion is further supported by the trend of ‘cyclical liberalisation strategies’. (Yom 2005)

Having established that the Yemeni revolution was in effect a ‘refolution’ (Keane 2011), it is beneficial to define the ‘revolutionaries’ by yet another adaptation of the term. As such, for the pur-poses of this research they will herewith be defined as Marginalised Social Groups, or MSGs. Throughout this dissertation, this category will denote the youth and female demographics of Yem-en, which have during the country’s modern history been excluded from political life, albeit unoffi-cially. The ‘youth’ demographic, i.e. males/females in the 15-35 age bracket, and women of all ag-es (as a distinct category in itself) will be those groups referred to as MSGs.

Digressing to the exercise of generating a theoretical framework to examine the perpetra-tors of the ‘refo-lution’ we turn to the conceptual lenses of Yom (2005) and Bayat (2014). In particu-lar, Yom (2005) argues, “…the civil society thesis presumes that through the collective force of its demands and interests, the associational sector can compel unwilling authoritarian governments to instigate periods of democratisation. However, over the past two decades Arab states have lever-aged a cyclical strategy of liberalisation -repression to control swells of civic activism.” (Yom 2005. p.1). Complementing the ‘refo-lution’ (Keane 2011) and ‘Middle Eastern exceptionalism’ (Salamey 2009) assertions, Yom (2005) suggests that ‘cyclical liberalisation strategies’ (Yom 2005) have be-come part and parcel of the ideal-typical Arab states’ repertoire of control. Thus, it would seem our operational, non-normative definition of civil society is reflective of the non-normative approaches regimes take to dealing with ‘swells of civic activism’ (Yom 2005) in the Middle East. Although in retrospect, arguing that the Yemeni civic upheaval of 2011 was merely a ‘swell of civic activism’ (Yom 2005) it does seem as though the state had at first treated it as such, suggesting something about the character of these ‘refo-lutionaries’ (Keane 2011) as it were.

Civic activism and dissent in the Middle East prior to the Arab Spring was not generally explored within the limits of normative understanding of civil society, both due to difficulty of access and the assumption that civil society in these countries was an exercise in ‘tactical liberalisation’ (Schwedler 2002, p.2). While this has in many cases been true, the nature of Arab civil society (or in Yemen MSGs) is such that it has never qualified as being necessarily civil due to the web of non-evident relationships between these and state actors (Yom 2005; Schwedler 2002; Carapico 1998). Appropriately so, this study’s findings have suggested that although many civil society groups suggested they were politically independent, during the ‘revolutionary’ period and well after it, many of these groups were in fact promoting the political values that were beneficial to the oust-ed regime. As such, MSGs, not civil society, will be assumoust-ed as the main perpetrators of the phe-nomenon in question.

2.4 Democratisation

In understanding cases of transition there is now the assumption that democracy is the ul-timate goal. Perspectives abound on the process itself, what drives it, how it can be replicated, and whether interventions should be implemented on its behalf. Huntington and Fukuyama offer some of the most celebrated literature on democracy and democratisation currently available. Hunting-ton’s argument is of particular relevance in the Middle Eastern case, wherein he suggests that de-mocratisation can occur as a result of the ‘regional contingency factor’ (Huntington 1991) suggest-ing it occurs as a result of the domino effect. However, in the Huntsuggest-ington (1991) model, this occurs if a democracy is established and neighbouring countries follow suit. In this sense it does not suf-fice for an explanation of the Arab spring, in which many movements sought democracy but had little practical ideal of how to achieve it. Taking a Fukuyama (1992) approach to the democracy

question suggests the ultimate goal of any political transition is democracy, and that it is the ulti-mate political form that will not be overturned. (Fukuyama 1992) While this a decidedly more Amer-icanized vision of democracy, with heavy inferences from American history and foreign policy, the ‘end of history’ (Fukuyama 1992) model suggests that although transitions may falter and not occur in a consolidated fashion, democratisation may still occur.

While these normative democratisation theories seem insufficient for an analysis of the MENA transitional settings, the Carothers (2002) perspective on the transition paradigm is more effective. He suggests the transition paradigm does suffice in detailing the transitions of what could be the ‘fourth wave’ (Carothers 2002) of democratisation. Given that the Arab spring has not to this day produced a clear transition to stable democracy, Carothers’ (2002) argument holds firm. In a similar vein Ahmed and Capoccia (2014) suggest there is a common trend in scholarship on the Arab spring focusing on the elite bargaining. They have pointed to a significant gravitation in litera-ture towards an opining which sees “…liberalisation taking place in MENA countries as essentially a façade whereby authoritarian elites conceded the bare minimum necessary to appease critics” (Ahmed and Capoccia 2014, p.6). These claims reinforce the claims made by Schwedler (2002) on civil society and the strategic liberalisation tactics of the Yemeni pre-transition regime.

Burnell (2013) suggests that from a foreign policy perspective, the efforts of global democ-ratisation proponents such as the U.S., E.U. and U.N. have, through the course of the Arab spring acknowledged that the democratisation mechanisms of European post-communist countries were subject to different circumstances and that democratisation models based on these examples were not effective in MENA countries, prompting a more “…ad-hoc…” (Burnell 2013, p.842) approach. This suggests the democratisation that was occurring in the MENA transitional settings was in ef-fect a non-normative process that, according to Durac, “…confirm(s) the blurring of the lines be-tween democratisation and authoritarian resilience…” (Durac 2012, p.175). As such, although de-mocratisation is assumed as being part and parcel of transitional settings, it is more of an over-arching theme that does not necessarily address the particularities of the Yemeni case, prompting an ‘ad-hoc’ approach to an understanding of the transitional process.

This approach will furthermore be reflected in this study’s understanding of agency. As will be discussed later, an epistemological stance which assumes there are no self-evident features of political agency in the Yemeni transitional context will guide the understanding thereof. Further-more, given that there is “…scant research on citizenship formation and civic identity from the van-tage point of media use by young people…’ (Wasserman & Garman 2014, p.1) this dissertation will assume agency (contextually) to be identifiable in two separate dimensions. On the one hand, it will be assumed as identifiable in both vocational capacity building, and the attainment of certain governmental and third sector positions by young people and women in Yemen. On the other hand, it will be assumed as manifest in the ways in which young people have interpreted and re-produced politics in their own forums, especially with regards to their respective demographic groups

3. Research questions

Given the presence of various assumptions on mass media from a political vantage point, such as the protestant revolution as highlighted by Anderson (1991), Its agenda setting characteristics as highlighted by McCombs and Valenzuela (2013), or its potentially destructive characteristics, if harnessed by violent actors in transitional settings, as highlighted by Stremlau (2013), and the rec-ommendations made by the likes of Jebril et. al. (2010) and Wassermann and Garman (2014) on the need for more research into the dynamics of information environments in transitional settings, this research will seek to answer the following question primarily:

How does mass media facilitate the building of political agency for marginalised so-cial groups in transitional settings?

Reflecting other gaps in knowledge on varied aspects of mass media in transitional settings, as suggested by the limited scope of theoretical frameworks on mass media presented by authors such as Anderson (1991), Jebril et. al. (2013) and Freire (1980), and frameworks such as Agenda setting theory (McCombs and Valenzuela 2013), Cyclical liberalisation strategy (Yom 2005), Nego-tiated Systems change theory (Hafez 2008), the following sub-questions will seek to bridge the di-vide present in literature between normative assumptions on mass media and the scope of these theories in transitional settings.

1) Are there distinguishing features of mass media that make it an effective political mobilisation and manipulation medium in the case of Yemen?

2) Did cyclical liberalisation strategies prompt a shift in the sectoral boundaries of the media sector as defined by restrictions on private media? And if so, was the entrance of MSGs into the media sector workforce part of a negotiated systems change?

3) Has mass media served as a symmetric information forum in which the agenda of MSG’s participation in political processes was set?

4. Conceptual Scheme

Cyclical liberal-isation strate-gies

Liberalisation Mass media / Media

sector Setting of political _{agenda / Agenda} setting / Hypoder-mic needle Marginalised

So-cial Groups (MSGs)

Entry into workforce

Shift in perception of MSGs, acceptance of them as political actors Liberalisation MSGs as political actors in transi-tional forums

5. Operationalisation table

Concept Dimensions Variables Indicators Methods

1.Civil Society/ Marginalised Social Groups (MSG)* 1.a. Political 1.b. Social 1.c. Cultural 1.a.1. Representa-tion of demograph-ic group in formal political forums 1.a.2. Organisa-tional cluster for demographic group 1.a.3. Individuals from MSG repre-senting politically independent youth 1.b.1. Recognised by own demo-graphic as having civic capacity of some sort 1.c.1. Demograph-ic group represent-ing majority of transition (de-regulated/private) mass media labour force

1.a.1 Non-affiliation with state institution

1.a.2 Recognised by state as registered or-ganisation

1.b.1.Record of activity through confirmation by partner organisations and professionals from field

1.c.1. Claims of individu-als with knowledge of and experience in the transition media sector

1.a.1,2,3. Interviews

1.b.1. Interviews and fact checking through internet sources

1.c.1. Interviews

2.Mass Media 2.a.Technical

2.b.Social 2.a. Broadcasting capacity 2.b. Designated community being broadcasted to

2.a.1. Ability to broadcast to wide public domesti-cally and/or international-ly

2.a.2. Communication infrastructure permits wide scale broadcasting

2.b.1. Broadcasting lan-guage

2.b.2. Programming con-tent recognised by com-munity as relevant to them

2.a.1,2. Interviews.

3.Transitional Setting 3.a. Political 3.b. Social 3.a. Democratisa-tion 3.b.1 Popular per-ceptions about po-tential for youth and women to be political actors 3.b.2. Presence of women in political forums 3.b.3. Population of female presenters, writers, and techni-cians in mass me-dia outlets

3.a.1. Inclusion of more demographic groups 3.a.2. Free Elections 3.a.3. Multi-party system. 3.a.4. Division between executive and legislative branches of govern-ments.

3.b.1,2,3. Census data and professional opinion of professionals from field.

3.a.1,2,3,4. Interviews 3.a.1,2,3,4. Verification through secondary data and media content analysis.

3.b.1,2,3. Interviews 4.Sociopolitical forum 4.a. Political 4.b. Social 4.a.1 Participation of representative and/or officials from governance entity (multi-faction) 4.a.2. Impact on policy 4.b. Scale of social demographics rep-resented in forum

4.a.1. Main state actors recognise participation and relevance of process 4.a.2. Policy alteration following process at fed-eral level

4.b. Number of partici-pants from marginalised demographics present and permitted to speak in forum

4.a.1,2. Interviews. 4.a.1,2. Media content analysis.

4.b. Interviews.

4.b. Media content analysis

5. Agency 5.a. Political 5.a.1. Degree of freedom of speech in political forums 5.a.2. Demograph-ic make-up of first and third sector labour force in post-revolution period

5.a.1. Whether expres-sion was altered when published on official pub-lic medium

5.a.2. Whether there has been increase in number of individuals from MSGs holding jobs in first and third sectors

5.a.1,2. Interviews 5.a.1,2. Media content analysis

6. Methodology

6.1 Research location

(Nations Online 2015)

This research is focused on the country of Yemen. However, a violent international conflict ongoing in the country for the past two years has made it inaccessible to researchers, as such, all the empirical data collected for this research has been collected in Jordan. Jordan is arguably the most stable country in the region at this time, and is one of two air-entry points in to Yemen at the current time. Due primarily to this reason, it was for a time soon after the beginning of the conflict, i.e. Spring 2015 to spring 2016, a destination for many Yemenis fleeing the conflict. Visa regula-tions for Yemeni’s in Jordan allowed for them to reside there with little restriction, and in the interim period mentioned above, estimates placed the number of Yemeni refugees from the 2015-2016 conflict residing in Jordan at anywhere from 30,000 to 150,000 (IOM) (UNHCR). However, in mid-2016 a Jordanian law concerning Yemeni refugees has changed, making it a non-desirable desti-nation for many Yemenis. This has greatly diminished the number of Yemenis residing in Jordan, and has impeded me from accessing as wide a demographic sample as expected. Nevertheless, the safety of Jordan has made it a haven for many of the INGOs, multilateral’s, and donor-offices

which have programmes currently ongoing in Yemen, accordingly the majority of all international third sector organisations, and some Yemeni ones have been operating remotely from Jordan.

Digressing now to the research, Yemen has been chosen as the case-study for this for two reasons.

The first of these being that I have in the past been directly involved in the country’s media sector, working with in a privately owned radio station. Additionally, I have worked with media ca-pacity building efforts in the third sector, with a particular focus on mass media during the transi-tional period, and for other third sector organisations. As such, I have a personal history with the country that I wish to expand upon.

On the other hand, there is a latent interest in providing a development-framed approach to mass media and the transitional trajectory of Yemen. It seems a majority of the scholarly work that has been done on Yemen in the past has taken an anthropological approach, due primarily to the complex nature of the context. Having identified this as a principal knowledge gap, this research aims to offer a foray into analytically deprived fields, namely development communication and the enhancement of the political agency of marginalised social groups in transitional and development settings. On a more micro and case-specific level however, this research aims to uncover what the dynamics of mass communication and political transition are in the Yemeni case, and what an un-derstanding of this dynamic may contribute to the ongoing process and post-transition political or-der.

6.2 Unit of analysis

My principal sampling universe are the youth and women that have been involved in some capacity with the media sector during the transition period in Yemen, or in the transitional forums as representatives of those politically marginalised factions. Additionally, political analysts and de-velopment practitioners with experience in political and media dede-velopment have been consulted.

Specifically, my respondent sample is comprised of two heads of media-advocacy INGOs, that were operating in Yemen in the 2011-2014 period, three Yemeni freelance journalists which had covered much of the transition period, two local and one international political analysts, the former Yemeni minster of information during the 2012-2014 period, two prominent female NDC participants, the head of the NDC media centre, one owner of a private radio station that operated in the 2012-2014 period, two prominent female and one male activists/media producers, and finally one male youth member of the uprisings. My full respondent sample currently stands at 17 inter-views and one focus group discussion. All but two of these individuals are Yemeni nationals. Sev-en of the respondSev-ents are female. All but three of the remaining 10 individuals are members of the ‘youth’ demographic as it were, representing the professional backgrounds this research has been slated to access.

6.3 Epistemology and Ontology

This research aims to increase our understanding of how political paradigms are altered through the influence of both popular and concerted opinions in the media, how these voices con-tribute to a shift in popular perceptions of the role of individuals from marginalised social groups as political actors, and in turn how this affects the state of the political agency of said groups in the transitional context.

Based on this aim, and given that a central theme in this thesis will be understanding whether there were shifts in popular perceptions of women and youth in the transitional context, a significant portion of this thesis will be an examination of social constructs and how they influence political transformation.

Notwithstanding the findings that have been generated, it has been clear from the onset that extra-communal perceptions on the ability of marginalised social groups to be political actors were impacted during the transition, which in turn impacted the ability of these groups to exercise their political capacities, as such, this research will assume a constructivist ontological approach. This intends that social phenomena and their meanings are shaped by and accomplished through the activity of social actors that have the power to keep this system in a state of constant flux. It is thus assumed that the political structures which kept certain demographic groups marginalised are a product of the contemporary perceptions of these groups and is as malleable as it was oppres-sive (Bryman 2008).

6.4 Data gathering

The full set of empirical data has been qualitative, collected through semi-structured inter-views (Bryman 2008). One focus group discussion has also been held. Although it had been my intention to conduct at least 4 focus group discussions with anonymous members of the ‘youth’ and ‘female’ demographics, accessibility obstacles did not allow for that to happen.

As mentioned in the previous section, the departure of a significant portion of the Yemeni population from Jordan nearing the summer 2016 period has posed some crucial obstacles. It had been expected that being in Jordan would enable me to access a broader cross-section of the so-cial and professional demographics which are the subject of this research. Although it was never-theless the case that a number of individuals which had been targeted were accessed, the smaller than expected variation in professional and social background of the respondents has made the findings limited in scope.

Nevertheless, a snowball sampling method was used to access as wide a range of actors as possible (Bryman 2008). With the help of my local supervisor, who has been involved profes-sionally in the third sector in Yemen for many years, an initial sample of respondents was ac-cessed, who then directed me to other individuals who had been professionally involved in the

me-dia sector, directly involved in the ‘revolution’ as activists, or in other capacities in the third sector during the transition period.

Furthermore, there is a significant gap in statistical information on the country, and by virtue of this fact, in addition to the accessibility issues, this research is wholly qualitative. This implies an inductive approach and a particular focus on the empirical phenomena inspired by the forms in which political and social actors perceive their peer groups which have previously been marginal-ised from the mainstream political environment. The following are the forms of data collection which have been used for this research.

1. Semi-structured interviews:

The structured aspects of my interviews have been strategically formed based on the professional focus of each individual and each set of questions has been unique. I did not establish a precursory structure with which to approach the interviews as I was not aware, going in to the research, which individuals my respondent sample would be comprised of. However, through strategic and snowball sampling I was able to gener-ate a general and overarching aim for each interview. Essentially, no one individual from my respondent sample would have been able to address the various conceptual components of the study, so each individual represented a source of knowledge and experience on a specific segment of the research. In response to this limitation it would have been detrimental to the study to establish a structure with which to do the inter-view. The only constant throughout all interviews has been my informing the respond-ents that if they were uncomfortable answering any of the questions (for safety rea-sons) that they needn’t answer.

2. Focus groups discussion:

Although I had planned to hold at least four focus group discussions during this period, circumstances were such that only one focus group discussion was able to be held. As explained in the previous section, this was due primarily to the diminished presence of Yemeni’s in Jordan during the period I was there. However, the one focus group which was held did produce some of the most in-depth results. The two individuals I was able to get together were from fairly diverse backgrounds, one being the co-founder and manager of a popular radio station during the period being researched, and the other was a university student not explicitly involved with the media sector, but with a back-ground in social research and with a first-hand perspective on the transition period and revolution. These two individuals were however from the same demographic group, and to a certain extent the same socioeconomic background, making the variation in

opinions not as significant as it could have been with, for instance, a woman and a man, or an older and a younger individual. However, as intended, the respondents en-gaged in a discussion wherein the opinions and information they shared were be sub-ject to immediate scrutiny by the other, and in this way I was able to see which state-ments seemed to be the most accurate and which were the most contended. Moreo-ver, the dynamic between these two individuals indicated non-evident features of the way individuals from this demographic interpreted themselves and the phenomenon being discussed.

6.5 Data analysis

I have coded my empirical data manually and using this coding, have been able to generate links between the information found in this set of data.

6.6 Scope and limitations

I have chosen to focus on a finite period given the development of the phenomenon in question over time. Given that my research is geared towards generating an understanding of the nature of political agency for certain groups during this time however, several focal points have been identi-fied, namely the NDC and mass media as transitional forums, shifting social norms and political transformation. I have questioned respondents on a wide variety of topics with regards to the tran-sition, making it clear throughout the research that a broad range of events, political trends, and individuals have influenced the occurrence of the phenomenon in question.

The intent has been to establish analytical parameters conducive to a replication of the study in other settings with similar characteristics. This has entailed interviewing respondents from a wide range of sociopolitical and economic backgrounds and professions which are not context specific. In this way, I hope to establish a multi-scalar context for the phenomenon in question, and likewise a more rich texture to the findings and analysis thereof.

Certain issues have impacted the limitations of this study. The first of these is that some of the most important actors which have impacted the phenomenon in question have been unrespon-sive and ultimately I have not been able to interview them. With a notable exception, I was not able to interview the full breadth of public sector officials I had intended to, making the scope of my find-ings slightly skewed in favour of a third-sector perspective on the phenomenon. However, through snowball sampling I have been able to access a wide range of individuals which were active public servants during the transition process, as well as individuals who have at various points through the recent past worked directly for the government (Bryman 2008).

The second of these issues has been the holy month of Ramadan. Although Jordan is a fairly progressive Muslim state in that during Ramadan working hours do not change significantly, the majority of my respondents were inactive during the month. Effectively from the date of my ar-rival on the 22nd of June until the 10th of July it was extremely difficult to organise interviews and subsequently I was only able to conduct a few during this period.

A final issue that which has impacted the scope of this research is the fact that an interna-tional conflict broke out in Yemen during the early stages of 2015. Although the bombing which first initiated the war occurred on the 26th of March, 2015, tensions had been running extremely high between the various domestic factions, especially after the Houthi rebels took control of the capital Sana’a on the 21st of September, 2014 (Al-Jazeera 2014). These events have effectively meant that the transition failed. However, given Yom’s argument on the ineffectiveness of the transition paradigm to explain middle eastern transitions, and the ‘middle eastern exceptionalism’ argument, the current conflict can be considered as part of the transition, not as a symbol of its failure (Yom 2008; Salamey 2009). Moreover, it has been made clear to both the respondents, and in the data analysis and context sections of this research, that the scope of this phenomenon is strictly limited to the non-conflict period of the transition. In this way I have avoided interacting with topics which arguably require enough attention for a wholly new thesis to be written on.

6.7 Ethical considerations

Although as the political situation currently stands in Yemen, many political analysts, ex-activists, NGO & INGO workers, and media professionals are less concerned with their ability to voice criticism of the transition and its various protagonists, it still remains wholly unclear what statement may be inflammatory and which may not. In certain cases throughout the research, giv-en the topics at hand, there will be the need to anonymise quotes from certain individuals. I have made it very clear to my respondents that this research will not be published on any peer-reviewed journals, nor will it be accessible to the public via any means, and in this way have been able to generate the information I am looking for. Given the nature of politics in Yemen even to this point, censorship often occurs retroactively and is generally accompanied by violence of some sort. Es-sentially, while some statements are clearly unrequited and understood to be off-limits, some, less evidently inflammatory ones may not be responded to violently, but may be used as collateral evi-dence to punish someone for non-related acts or statements. Partly for this reason, I would prefer that my dissertation is not published on the UvA website.

6.8. Life - work histories

In an attempt to further establish the sociopolitical parameters of this phenomenon and what the contextual manifestations of it are on an individual, micro-level basis, I will be employing an adaptation of the life-work histories method. This adaptation will be rendered according to its use by David Lewis in the piece entitled “Crossing the Boundaries between ‘Third Sector’ and State: life-work histories from the Philippines, Bangladesh and the UK” (Lewis 2014). The method-ology considers the professional histories of certain individuals as ideal-typical cases exemplary of the phenomenon in question. While the object of Lewis’ work is to uncover a “…better understand-ing the boundaries, both conceptual and tangible, that both separate and link government and third sector in… different institutional contexts.” (Lewis 2014, p.139), for the purposes of this research, my aim is to present the basic typology of actors whose professional trajectories, especially within the transitional context, illustrate the phenomenon of mass media acting as an incubator for the political agency of marginalised social groups in transitional settings.

In chapter 8, entitled ‘Life Work Histories’, I will offer an examination of four ideal-typical actors who have influenced the course of the phenomenon and exemplified it. It would however be misleading to the reader to suggest that use of the ideal-typical cases are, as established by We-ber “concrete individual phenomena … arranged into a unified analytical construct” (Gedanken-bild); in its purely fictional nature…” [Weber 1904/1949, 90]” (Stanford Encyclopaedia of Philoso-phy 2014). The individuals which will be discussed in chapter 8 are in fact real individuals whose life-work histories have not been altered for the purposes of this research. They will however be presented as anonymous due to the sensitivity of the topic and for their own safety. The individuals which will be addressed in this section represent the basic typology of actors which perpetrated the phenomenon being examined in this study.

7. Context / Findings

7.1 Elite bargaining and regime schism in the transitional environment

The Yemeni revolution of 2011 heralded the transitional process the country is still feeling the effects of, now in the form of a civil and international conflict the revolution and resulting crisis are principal causes of. Indeed,

“The post-2011 events in Yemen do not resemble the transition paradigm at all. There has been no move toward more democratic governance. Even when the transitional regime (2012-2014) was functioning as the international community intended, it produced no increase in ac-countability or popular representation.” (Picard 23.06.2016)

Notwithstanding the analytical obstacle posed by the Yemeni case, it seems as though the regional trend known as the Arab spring has itself challenged the theoretical frameworks scholar-ship on middle eastern politics and social movements has generally approached the matter through.

“The well-known survey of scholarly literature on Middle East politics over the past decade by the political scientist Gregory Gause offers a similar conclusion — that no social scientist was able to foresee what happened (Gause, 2011)…that surprise lies not in the unexpected arrival of these revolutions, but in their character, their ideological make-up and political trajectories.” (Bayat 2014 p.1)

In accordance with this observation, and as it is clear the Yemeni transition has generally not been consistent with the prevailing frameworks on transitional processes, an analysis of this case may be best accomplished through a reconfiguration of existing models. Moreover, much like Bayat’s (2014) interpretation of the ‘surprise’ of the Arab spring, in order to effectively understand the mass media political agency phenomenon in Yemen, a re-interpretation of normative under-standings of social movements, political agency, and the role of media in transitional settings is required. While the transition paradigm provides an overarching thematic structure, Hafez (2008) suggests understanding the shifting political character of the ‘soft authoritarianisms’ of the Middle East may be best accomplished by engaging with the ‘negotiated systems change’ (Hafez 2008) model. This approach and Hafez’s (2008) rendering of it pose the most encompassing theoretical framework a research on the phenomenon requires. On the one hand, approaching the Yemeni transition process through a ‘negotiated systems change’ model is beneficial given the presence a trend of elite bargaining therein. On the other hand, this model effectively controls for the influence of mass media in the transitional contexts of the MENA region.

The ‘negotiated systems change’ (Hafez 2008) framework can be used to identify within the Yemeni transition a trend wherein elite bargaining remodelled the balance of power and gave new actors significant political concessions, highlighting a shift in the distribution of resources required to keep the social contract functional. The pre-conflict transition period - i.e. February 2011 to

March 2015 - was defined by a seesawing of the decades-old (and for the duration of that time, stationary) balance of power. A hybrid governance structure whose jurisdiction varied between tribal, religious and state laws was itself couched within a super-structure that the tribes and mili-tary were the principal power bases of. (Thiel 2012) Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s former president, sat at the helm of this structure for a 33 year period, during which he empowered his direct rela-tives through appointments in the most influential military positions. Nominal appointments in the cabinet and parliament, and second-tier military positions were reserved for members of his ex-tended clan and other notable tribal figures. This dynamic exemplified the clientelism with which the country had been run for the majority of its modern history. In the aftermath of the revolution however, the revolutionary campaign was a contentious external actor that contributed significantly to a schism within this already fragile structure.

In the forthcoming explanation of how this schism occurred, the ‘negotiated systems change’ (Hafez 2008) model offers a theoretical structure which controls for the occurrence of me-so level political settlements. In the sections following this one, a macro level rendering of how the MSGs demographic interacted with and impacted these settlements will establish the parameters within which mass media as a platform for the generation of political agency will be explored.

7.1.1 Regime schism

Tribes are hugely influential in Yemen. Their appeasement in both financial and political terms was essential to the continuation of the social contract. While it was an unwritten expectation that the political concessions made to a majority of the tribes during the pre-transition period were purely for rent-provision, during the transition, the nature of the concessions demanded by certain tribes shifted and with them the resource requirements of the body politic.

The political aspirations of the tribal demographic, generally speaking, were reared by the Hashed tribal confederation, of which the Al-Ahmar family is the leading clan. Three brothers from this family serve as the leadership of the ‘Islah’ coalition. This bloc, known in English as the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), is composed of the eminent tribalist, religiously-oriented parties. (Ahmed 2011) In the countries first democratic (for lack of a better word) elections of 1994 the JMP coa-lesced to vie for power within the state apparatus, winning concessions from the regime to placate their political aspirations such as parliamentary seats, governorships of various governorates, and other nominal bureaucratic and military positions. The regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh and his closest circles benefitted greatly from empowering the system on two fronts; they imposed rents on the lower echelons, while relegating them to political positions that were not influential enough to wield any significant impact on the political order. (Clark 2010)

“It’s (the patronage system) survival depends on the absolute control of sources of building and financing. Naturally, as dispensing of patronage rewards is entirely discre-tionary, human greed then finds its expression unfettered… Elite Rivalry took the form