Water Scarcity and Political Instability
An In-Depth Case Study of Kenya’s Water Crisis
Till taught by pain, men know not water's worth - Byron (1826)
Sabine Kaptein - 6081185
Master Thesis Political Science - International Relations
31-08-2016
Supervisor: Dr. Farid Boussaid
Second Reader: Dr. M.P. Amineh
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Abstract
This study examines the impact of water scarcity on the political instability of a country. In this thesis, Kenya is used as an in-depth case study. Effects of global warming causes severe droughts in Kenya, while fast population growth and poor management of water supply enhances Kenya’s water crisis. The analysis section of this thesis is presented in three chapters. In the first chapter, the impact of water scarcity on the Kenyan population and environment is examined and an overview of drought episodes is provided. The second chapter sets out that events of water-related-conflicts increases in times of drought. This chapter also shows that historic tribal clashes contribute to the eruption of water related conflicts. The third chapter provides an overview of the political context in Kenya of the period 1990-2013. Also, indicators of political instability from the study of Jong-A-Pin (2009) are used to examine Kenya’s political stability. Evidently, all of the indicators of political instability were present during the period 1990-2013, indicating that Kenya was political unstable. Two of the nine indicators were related to water scarcity. This means that water scarcity can contribute to the political instability of a country, direct or indirect via the enhancement of the factors ‘ethnic tensions’ and/or ‘civil conflicts’.
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Table of Content
Abstract ... 3
Chapter 1. Introduction ... 6
Chapter 2. Literature Review ... 8
Chapter 3. Conceptual Framework ... 10
3.1 Environmental Scarcity ... 10
3.2 Social Effects of Environmental Scarcity and Conflict Theories ... 12
3.3 The Pathway from Environmental Scarcity to Violent Conflict ... 14
3.4 Political Stability ... 16
Chapter 4. Methodology and Sources ... 19
4.1 Kenya Water Crisis ... 19
4.2 Design: Case Study ... 19
4.3 Data Collection ... 20
Chapter 5. Concepts of Water Scarcity ... 21
5.1 Definitions of Drought ... 21
5.2 Water Stress ... 21
5.3 Falkenmark Water Stress Indicator ... 22
Chapter 6. Analysis: Water Scarcity ... 23
6.1 Geography ... 24
6.2 The Kenyan Climate and Water Resources ... 24
6.3 Causes of the Water Crisis ... 25
6.3.1 Drought ... 25
6.3.2 Population Growth ... 27
6.3.3 Poor Management of Water Supply ... 28
6.3.4 Contamination of Water ... 28
6.4 Adapting to Water Scarcity ... 29
6.5 Sub Conclusion ... 30
Chapter 7. Analysis: Tribalism and Water Related Conflicts ... 31
7.1 Kenyan Tribalism ... 31
7.2 Drought and Pastoralism ... 32
7.3 Water Related Conflicts ... 33
7.4 Sub Conclusion ... 36
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8.1 Political Context Kenya, Before and After the Independence ... 37
8.2 Political Context Kenya, period 1990-1997 ... 38
8.2.1 Tribalism and Electoral Violence ... 38
8.2.2 Water Scarcity and Electoral Violence ... 39
8.3 Elections 2002-2007 and Kenyan Crisis (2007-2008) ... 40
8.3.3 Adoption of a New Constitution (2010) ... 41
8.4 Elections 2013 ... 42
8.5 Sub conclusion: Political Context and Political Stability ... 42
Chapter 9. Conclusion & Discussion ... 45
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Chapter 1. Introduction
Water is the essence of life. The availability of safe drinking water and sanitation are essential to sustain life and health (OHCHR, 2010). Yet 663 million people on this planet do not have access to clean drinking water, and 2.4 billion people lack access to sanitation facilities (World Health Organization, 2015). The causes of the current water crisis can be traced back to poverty, inequality and unequal power relationships, but is also worsened by social and environmental challenges. In some arid areas of the world, water scarcity has become a threat to human health and the natural ecosystems (Seckler, Barker & Amarasinghe, 1999). The World Economic Forum (2015), lists in its most recent annual risk report water scarcity as the largest global risk in terms of potential impact. Water crises derives from the rising global demand for water. This is mainly caused by the rapid growth of world population, improving living standards, changing consumption patterns and expansion of irrigated agriculture (Vörösmarty, Green, Salisbury & Lammers, 2000). At the global level there is enough freshwater available to meet global demand, but spatial and temporal variations of water demand and availability are large, which leads to water crises in certain parts of the world during specific times of the year (Zhuo, Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2016).
The main purpose of this thesis is to examine how water scarcity has an influence on the political stability of a country. In this thesis, Kenya is used as an in-depth case study. About 47 million people live in Kenya, and 43 percent of the population do not have access to clean water. Therefore, water scarcity has been an issue for decades (Linke, O’Loughlin, McCabe, Tir & Witmer, 2015). The climate in Kenya is predominantly arid year-round, and only a small portion of the country’s land is optimal for agriculture. Global warming has caused severe droughts, and other issues like the contamination of drinking water and a lack of water resources have enhanced Kenya’s water crisis. At the same time, water demand in Kenya has risen as a result of fast population growth. The arid climate and the lack of rainfall also affects the ability to acquire food, especially in the rural areas. A lot of Kenyans who live in poor urban slums have only access to contaminated water sources, which causes cholera epidemics and other infection diseases that affect the health and livelihoods of inhabitants. There is also a discrepancy between the urban and the rural population in access to clean water: less than half of the rural population has access to water, in contrast to 85 percent of the urban population. In this thesis the effects of the Kenyan water crisis on political stability are examined. The theory of Homer-Dixon (1991; 1994; 1995) is used to identify the pathway from environmental scarcity to violent conflict. Furthermore the theory of Jong-A-Pin (2009) is used to examine the concept of political instability. The concept of political instability is measured by nine indicators that are distributed into three categories, ‘violence’, ‘protest’ and ‘political regime’. Those nine indicators will be used in the analysis section of this thesis to measure the degree of political instability in Kenya. The aim of this thesis is to examine how water scarcity affect political instability. To
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demarcate this thesis somehow, Kenya is chosen as an in-depth case study. This has the limitation that the outcomes of this study will not be generalizable. In this thesis, an attempt is made to find an answer to the following question: How does the water crisis in Kenya impact the country’s
political stability? It is important to find out how water scarcity has an impact on the political
stability, because due to increasing social and environmental challenges, like climate change and accelerating urbanization processes, it is likely that the water crisis is exacerbating in the future. At this point, water scarcity is a real problem in a large part of the world, including Asia, Africa, Oceania, the Middle East and parts of South and Middle America. It is therefore relevant to research the possible link between water scarcity and political stability.
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Chapter 2. Literature Review
The question if resource scarcity will lead to conflict and war is in most debates grounded by the Malthusian theory (Allouche, 2011). The Malthusian theory states that population grows exponentially, while food production grows linear. This creates an imbalance between economic availability of natural resources and population growth. “Neo-Malthusians claim that finite natural resources place a strict limit on the growth of human population and aggregate consumption; if these limits are exceeded, social breakdown, conflict and wars result” (Allouche, 2011, p. S3). These neo-Malthusian arguments are not supported by empirical studies. Because of rapid technological developments, labor productivity in agriculture has increased dramatically and resources barriers that seemed unchallengeable have been breached.
The term ‘water war’ is increasingly used in the media, by NGO’s and within international organizations. In 2007, the United Nations Secretary Ban Ki-moon stated that ‘water scarcity threatens economic and social gains and is a potent fuel for wars and conflict’ (Lewis, 2007). However, the scientific evidence seems quite weak that water has been a principal factor in international conflicts (Allouche, 2011). Also, no direct correlation between water scarcity and international conflict has been found. Most scholars now tend to agree that water scarcity by itself is not the issue, but rather the allocation of water sources between the various riparian states (Allouche, 2007). The perception of each state approximated water needs composes the core issue in transboundary water relations. On the contrary, some specialists argue that scarcity actually drive the riparian states to cooperation (Brochmann & Gleditsch, 2006).
The popularity of the term water wars arises again in the debates over the likely impacts of climate change. The argument in this debate runs that climate change will contribute to the worsening of ecological conditions, which will lead to resource scarcities, institutional failure, mass migrations and social breakdown, and in turn will cause political instability and conflict (Purvis & Busby, 2004). Although there is a growing public concern that climate change will lead to political instability and conflict, the scientific evidence to support this claim is still thin (Barnett & Adger, 2007).
More complex is the link between scarcity and conflict at the intra-state and the local level (Allouche, 2011). At the intra-state level, research shows that countries suffering from environmental degradation were more likely to experience civil war, although the effect of environmental degradation was secondary to economic and political factors (Urdal, 2005). A same kind of correlation is found between food insecurity and conflict. A measurement of food insecurity and living standard is infant mortality. According to the US State Failure Task Force, infant mortality is one of the three variables that is highly correlated with civil war (Goldstone, 2003). Although some specialists challenge the assumption that food insecurity is a direct cause of conflict, they prefer to emphasize the role of political and ethnic rivalry (Paalberg, 1999). There is a clear consensus among
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scholars that structural conditions of hunger and inequality are among the underlying causes of conflict (Allouche, 2011). But it is important to remember that in most cases resource scarcity is not the result of inadequate availability or production, but is mostly linked to the politics of inequality.
At the local level, some studies demonstrate that a lack of freshwater can lead to intense political instability and occasionally result in acute violence (Allouche, 2011). There has been documented conflicts between farmers and pastoralists over water access and use. In some African states, like Sudan and Nigeria, the state is unwilling or unable to intervene in these conflicts causing the conflicts to turn violent (Hussein, Sumberg & Seddon, 1999). So the local level may support the conflict-water scarcity nexus. Also, it seems that conflicts about water scarcity are more caused by the way the water use is governed than by the scarcity itself (Allouche, 2011). Conflicts seems to reflect societal problems. Metha (2005) found that the major factors affecting a potential water crises are access and control over water, political power and social and gender relations. This concludes that water crises on a local level are at the level of human security. In the ‘conceptual framework’ the different types of security will be further explained.
This paragraph shows that there is no clear consensus in science about the causes and consequences of water scarcity. Some scholars link resource scarcity to conflict, war and violence (Allouche, 2011). Other studies demonstrate that only at the local level water scarcity can lead to political instability (Hussein, Sumberg & Seddon, 1999). Also, climate change is a growing public concern which will lead to an increase of resource scarcities (Purvis & Busby, 2004). Some say this will induce institutional failure, mass migration and conflict, although the scientific evidence to support this claim is still weak (Barnett & Adger, 2007).
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Chapter 3. Conceptual Framework
In this paragraph the main concepts of this thesis are further explained. Also the connection between the different concepts are discussed. The conceptual framework of this thesis is built on two main theories; the theory of Homer-Dixon (1991; 1994; 1995) about environmental scarcity and conflict, and the theory of Jong-A-Pin (2009) about political instability. The first paragraph elucidates three main sources that can lead to an increase of environmental scarcity. In the second paragraph the link between environmental scarcity and conflict is made. In the last paragraph the concept of political instability is explained and nine indicators to measure the degree of political instability in Kenya are clarified.
3.1 Environmental Scarcity
As mentioned earlier in the literature review section, there is no clear consensus in science about the causes and consequences of water scarcity. In my thesis, I make use of the theory of Homer-Dixon (1994) who stated that environmental scarcity can cause political instability and therefore contribute to the eruption of violent conflict. In this paragraph the causes of resource scarcity will be exemplified.
According to Homer-Dixon (1994) there are three main sources that can lead to an increase of environmental scarcity. The first source is environmental change, which refers to a human induces decline in the quantity or quality of a renewable resource that occurs faster than it is renewed by natural processes. The second source is population growth, which reduces the resource per capita availability by dividing it among more and more people (Gleick, 1993). The third source is unequal
resource distribution, which concentrates a resource in the hands of a few people, and subject the rest
of the population to greater scarcity (Homer-Dixon, 1994). Often the three sources of resource scarcity interact, and two patterns of interaction are mostly common: ‘resource capture’ and ‘ecological marginalization’. ‘Resource capture’ occur when resource depletion and population growth cause unequal resource access, see figure 1 on page 11.
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Figure 1. Resource Capture: Resource depletion and population growth cause unequal resource access.
(Homer-Dixon, 1994, p. 7).
A fall in the quantity and quality of renewable resources can combine with population growth to encourage powerful groups within a society to shift resource distribution in their favor. As a consequence, this can produce dire resource scarcity for poorer and weaker groups whose claims to resources are opposed by these powerful elites. In contradiction, ecological marginalization occur when unequal resource access and population growth cause resource degradation and depletion, see figure 2.
Figure 2. Ecological Marginalization: Unequal resource access and population growth cause resource degradation and depletion.
(Homer-Dixon, 1994, p. 8).
Unequal resource access can combine with population growth to cause migrations to regions that are ecologically fragile, such as areas that are at risk of desertification. High population densities
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in these areas, combined with a lack of knowledge and capital to protect local resources, cause severe poverty and environmental damage.
3.2 Social Effects of Environmental Scarcity and Conflict Theories
The relationship between environmental scarcity and conflict is a complex one. In the previous paragraph is shown that depletion of renewable resources, singly or in combination with population growth and unequal resource access, can lead to an increase of environmental scarcity. In this paragraph deeper knowledge is gained about the consequences of environmental scarcity. Furthermore, the nature and the causes of scarcity-related-conflict are examined.
To analyze how environmental scarcity can cause, or contribute to, the eruption of violent conflict, it is important to study social effects that environmental scarcity can have in a developing society. Homer-Dixon (1991) hypothesizes that four principal social effects may, either singly or in combination, substantially increase the probability of acute conflict in developing countries. These effects are: decreased agricultural production, economic decline, population displacement and disruption of legitimized and authoritative institutions and social relations. Agriculture accounts for 70% of global freshwater withdrawals and is in most developing countries the most important economic sector. The rapidly growing world population and shrinking water resources make it difficult for food production to keep up with the rising demand. A decrease in agricultural production lead to scarcity of food and further impoverishment (Gurr, 1985). Water scarcity can therefore influence economic productivity directly or indirectly through other social effects such as decreased agricultural production. The third social effect is population displacement. Some researchers have suggested that environmental scarcity produce environmental refugees (Jacobson, 1989; Myers, 1993; Keane, 2003). This implies that environmental disruption could be a clear cause of refugee flows. However, environmental disruption is only one of the many interacting social and psychical variables, including agricultural and economic decline, that ultimately force people from their homelands (Homer-Dixon, 1991). The fourth social effect is disrupted institutions and social relations. In developing countries this social effect is mostly achieved through the combination of the first three social effects: A decrease in agricultural output can cause malnutrition and disease, and may weaken rural communities, and by encouraging people to leave; economic decline may corrode confidence in the national purpose, weaken the tax base and undermine legal, financial and political institutions. Mass migration of people into a region may disrupt labor markets, shift class relations and upset the traditional balance of economic and political authority between ethnic groups (Homer-Dixon, 1991, p. 98).
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Besides the four social effects that environmental scarcity can have in a developing society, it is also important to address the nature and the causes of social conflict. Three types of theory on the nature and etiology of social conflict are particularly important in the light of the four general social effects identified (Homer-Dixon, 1991). At the individual level, frustration-aggression theories are used to explain civil strife, including riots, strikes, coups and guerilla wars. This theory suggest that aggression is the result of blocking or frustrating a person’s efforts to attain a goal (Abell & Jenkins, 1971). This theory also suggests that this aggression and frustration can be caused by relative deprivation, when people perceive a discrepancy between the level of satisfaction they have achieved and the level they believe they deserve, often defined in economic terms. At the group level, group-identity theories are used in social psychology to explain conflicts involving ethnicity, nationalism and religion (Homer-Dixon, 1991). These theories focus on how groups reinforce their identities and how “we-they” cleavages arises. Individuals may have a need for “we-ness” that can be satisfied when their group discriminates or attacks another group (Tajfel, Billig, Bundy & Flament, 1971). Furthermore, a person’s sense of self-worthy may be strengthened when the group they belong to achieve a higher status than the status of other groups. Leaders may try to exploit these needs in order to increase their political power, for example by attacking other groups, but this behavior makes divisions between groups deeper and more belligerent (Homer-Dixon, 1991).
At the systemic level of analysis, structural theories explain conflicts that arise from the rational calculations of actors in the face of perceived external constraints. The assumptions of structural theories are often grounded in the microeconomics and game theory. The structure of an actor’s social situation is the ‘perceived set of possible interactions with other actors and the perceived likely outcomes of these interactions’ (Homer-Dixon, 1991, p. 105). The structure is determined by psychical, social and psychological factors (Wendt, 1987). Physical factors like resource limits, the total number of actors and barriers to communication or movement. Social factors such as the set of power relations between actors, beliefs and understandings and rules of social interaction, and psychological factors such as the preferences and believes of other actors. Structural theories suggest that external constraints can encourage or even oblige actors to engage in conflict (Waltz, 2010). Domestic structural theories advocate that civil strife will be more likely to occur when there are well-organized groups within a society whom can quickly channel, coordinate and articulate discontent. According to this theory, insurgency is a function of the “opportunity structure” that confronts groups challenging the authority of elites. Homer-Dixon (1991) assumes that environmental scarcity will produce the three above described principal types of conflict.
In this thesis, the theory of Homer-Dixon (1991) will be used as a guidance. In the analysis section of this thesis, the four principal social effects are used to interpret the impact of water scarcity on the Kenyan society.
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3.3 The Pathway from Environmental Scarcity to Violent Conflict
In the previous paragraph the social effects of environmental scarcity are discussed. Furthermore three principal types of conflict are reviewed that can be used to analyze conflicts on three different levels of analysis; the individual-, group- and systemic level. In this paragraph the link between resource scarcity and conflict will be illustrated by a model that shows the possible pathway from environmental scarcity to conflict.
The link between water scarcity and conflict is complex. Homer-Dixon (1994) explains the relationship between resource scarcity and conflict as follows. Resource scarcity is caused by three main sources: Decreases in the quantity and quality of renewable resources, unequal resource access and population growth. These sources act singly or in various combinations and lead to an increase environmental scarcity for certain population groups. When environmental scarcities concern for example water, it can reduce economic productivity, both for the local groups experiencing the scarcity and for the larger national and regional economies. People affected by the scarcity may migrate or expelled to new lands. Migrating groups often trigger ethnic conflicts when they move to new areas, while decreases in wealth can cause deprivation conflicts such as rural rebellion and insurgency. The productivity losses and migrations may in developing countries eventually weaken the state, which in turn decreases central control over ethnic rivalries and increases opportunities for insurgents and elites challenging state authority. This pathway is illustrated in figure 3.
Figure 3. Possible consequences of resource scarcity.
(Homer-Dixon, 1994, p. 28).
Scarcities can interact with numerous political, economic and social factors, such as the legitimacy of the political regime, migrations from resource scare zones and weakened institutions (Homer-Dixon,
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1991). Under certain conditions these social effects can then, cause ethnic conflicts, coups d’etat and insurgencies (Hagmann, 2005). When the balance of power in the society shifts away from the state towards challenger groups, the likelihood of violent conflict will increase. This means that the capacity of the state to respond to challenger groups is thus the key to the containment, or the explosion, of violence. To avoid this potential violence, societies can try to adapt to the renewable resource scarcities. Strategies for adaption fall into two categories, and both depend on adequate social and technical ‘ingenuity’. Ingenuity is a term introduced by Homer-Dixon (1994) that can be understood as ideas applied to solve practical social and technical problems. First, societies can use their indigenous resources more sensibly and provide alternative employment to people who have limited resource access. For example, literacy and family planning campaigns can ease population-growth induced scarcity and economic incentives like taxes on scare resources can reduce depletion and degradation by encouraging conservation and technical innovation. Second, a society can “decouple” itself from independence on the scare resource, by producing goods and services that do not rely on this specific resource. It can than trade the produced goods and services on the international markets for the resources it no longer has home. But for these adaption strategies to succeed, social and technical ingenuity is needed (Homer-Dixon, 1991). Technical ingenuity is needed to develop technical innovations, like new agricultural technologies that compensate for environmental loss. Social ingenuity is needed to create organizations and institutions that provide the right incentives for technological entrepreneurs and buffer people from the effects of scarcity. Social ingenuity is often a precursor to technical ingenuity (Homer-Dixon, 1994).
The development and implementations of technical innovations depend on a stable system of markets, legal regimes and educational and research institutions. However, some developing countries may not be able to supply this essential ingenuity. They are underendowed with the social institutions, including efficient markets, productive research centers and capable states, that are necessary for the supply of both technical and social solutions to scarcity. Also, their ability to create and maintain these institutions may be reduced by the environmental stress they endure. States can therefore be weakened by a lack of adaption in the face of environmental scarcity. Governments in this position may experience increased political and financial demands from their citizens, and their legitimacy may decline as a result of their inability to meet these demands (Hauge & Ellingsen, 1998). Also, scarcities may simultaneously increase the incentives for powerful groups to gain the scare resources, and make a huge profit from it.
Homer-Dixon (1994) suggest that three hypotheses could possibly declare the link between environmental scarcity and conflict. The first hypothesis assert that environmental scarcity causes conflicts between states. The second hypothesis assert that environmental scarcity causes large population movement, which in turn lead to group-identity conflicts. The third hypothesis claims that
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environmental scarcity disrupts social institutions and increases economic deprivation, which in turn causes insurgency and civil strife. In the analysis section of this thesis, the theory of Homer-Dixon (1994) is used to examine which of the three hypotheses fits the Kenya case study best. Also the possible pathway from environmental scarcity to conflict illustrated in figure 3 is used to explain the link between water scarcity and conflicts in Kenya.
3.4 Political Stability
In the previous paragraph, the theory of Homer-Dixon (1991; 1994; 1995) is used to examine the link between environmental scarcity and conflict. However, in this thesis I research the link between water scarcity and political instability. Therefore, in this paragraph the theory of Jong-A-Pin (2009) is used to explain the concept of political instability and it seems that ‘conflict’ is only one aspect of political instability. The term political stability is synonymous with endurance equilibrium, durability and viability (Sharma, 1989). In political terms it refers to a situation of endurance of a political system. Conversely, the term political instability is defined as the process whereby the political life or atmosphere of a state or region abruptly changes or fails (Alesina, Özler, Roubini & Swagel, 1996). When the political situation of a state or region is not certain because it has a high change of getting disturbed or changed, the political situation in that region or state is called unstable.
Due to the processes of modernization, the nature and patterns of political instability has changed significantly in the last century (Sharma, 1989). Both old and new states experienced violent changes and even breakdown of their political systems. Political instability has been a recurrent feature in the landscape of newly emerged states. But also some advanced societies have experienced massive disorder and violence. Events of violent political riots, abrupt changes in political systems and irregular transfers of leaderships have given rise to scholarly interest in examining the various aspects of political instability (Morrison & Stevenson, 1971). Yet, there is no agreed theory that explain the causes, consequences and cures of political instability (Sharma, 1989). The problem with measuring political instability is that it cannot be observed directly. Political instability is a latent construct, so indicators have to be used that are observable. Several studies have used different techniques and indicators to measure the concept of political instability. In my thesis, I use the most important indicators of the study to political instability of Jong-A-Pin (2009). In this study twenty-five political instability indicators, which all have been suggested in earlier research, are used in an exploratory factor analysis. In my thesis, I make use of the nine most significant indicators, distributed into three categories, namely: ‘violence’, ‘protest’ and ‘political regime’. In table 1, an overview is provided of the indicators and categories used in this thesis to measure the concept of political instability.
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Table 1. Indicators of ‘Political Instability’
Violence Protest Political Regime
Ethnic Tensions Riots Changes of Chief Executive
Internal Conflicts Demonstrations Cabinet Changes
Civil Conflicts Major Constitutional Changes
Major Government Crisis
Jong-A-Pin (2009)
In the category ‘violence’ is ethnic tensions the first indicator of political instability. Ethnic tensions is the degree of tensions within a country which is attributable to racial, nationality or language divisions (ICGR, 2005). To measure this indicator, an overview of ethnic tensions is given in the analysis part of this thesis. Another indicator of ‘violence’ is internal conflicts, which is an assessment of political violence in the country and its actual or potential impact on governance (Jong-A-Pin, 2009). The third indicator in the category ‘violence’ is the intensity and quantity of civil conflicts per year.
The next indicators belong to the category ‘protest’. Riots are any violent demonstration or clash of more than 100 citizens involving the use of physical force (Databanks International, 2005). The indicator demonstrations is measured by the following definition: Any peaceful public gathering of at least 100 people for the primary purpose of displaying or voicing their opposition to government policies or authority.
The last category is ‘political regime’ which covers four indicators. The indicator changes of chief
executive measure ‘the number of times that effective control of the executive changes hands’
(Jong-A-Pin, 2009, p. 27). And cabinet changes is measured by the number of times a new premier is named, or when 50% of the cabinets posts are occupied by new ministers. The third indicator is major
constitutional changes, which means ‘the number of basic alterations in a state’s constitutional
structure, the extreme case being the adoption of a new constitution that significantly alters the prerogatives of the various branches of government’ (Jong-A-Pin, 2009, p. 27). The last indicator is
major government crisis, that is indicated as any rapidly developing situation that threatens to bring
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Those indicators will be used in the analysis section of this thesis to measure the degree of political instability in Kenya. The aim of this thesis is to examine how water scarcity has an influence on political instability. To do this, all of the indicators will be examined in the analysis section. Also the water crisis in Kenya will be explained and a possible connection between the two concepts (water scarcity and political instability) will be made.
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Chapter 4. Methodology and Sources
This chapter outlines the methods used in the thesis to find an answer to the research question. As a structure, a case study design is used to examine the effect of water scarcity on the political stability in Kenya. The chapter will exemplify why the method of case study is chosen and how the data is collected.
4.1 Kenya Water Crisis
I choose Kenya as a topic for my research because Kenya is the regional leader and growing economic center in East Africa (USIP, 2015). Kenya is also a country of many contrasts, from its landscape to demographics, and more so its social and economic inequalities. Kenya’s political context has been heavily shaped by historical domestic tensions and contestation associated with centralization and abuse of power, corruption and post-election violence. Political stability is key for Kenya to maintain its influential position in the region. Therefore it is interesting to examine the effect of the current water crisis on the country’s political stability.
4.2 Design: Case Study
For my thesis I make use of the qualitative research approach. A case study design is used to examine the in-depth case of water scarcity in Kenya. According to Yin (1989) a case study approach provides a mode of inquiry for an in-depth examination of a phenomenon. He states that the “distinctive need” for case study research “arises out of the desire to understand complex social phenomena” (p. 14). In my thesis I make use of a single case design. Yin (1989, p. 48) argues that a single case design is warranted on the basis that the case is revelatory. A case is revelatory when there is an assumption or belief, that the problems discovered in the particular case are common to other cases as well. Despite the fact that the case study method is commonly used in social sciences, the case study method has often been contested. Flyvbjerg (2006) explores common misunderstandings about case study research. Some scholars argue that theoretical knowledge is more valuable than practical knowledge and that case studies are not generalizable and not suitable for theorizing, due to their specific contextual features. The argument that case studies are not generalizable is refuted by Flyvbjerg (2006):
“One can often generalize on the basis of a single case, and the case study may be central to scientific development via generalization as supplement or alternative to other methods. But formal generalization is overvalued as a source of scientific development, whereas “the force of example” is underestimated” ( p. 228).
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Referring to the theorization argument, Flyvbjerg (2001) argues that social science is different from natural science because it rejects the existents of a universal truth. Therefore, the attempts to construct predictive theories in social sciences is not useful, it only “draws attention away from those areas where social sciences could make an impact” (Flyvbjerg, 2006, p. 41). The strength of social science is not in predictive or explanatory theory, but in reflexive understanding, which is the weakness of natural sciences (Delanty, 2005). Contextualization is important, because the relation between science and society is not causal and linear but reflexive and interactive. Therefore case studies can contribute to an extraction of rich and in-depth knowledge. In this thesis, it is vital to achieve historical and context-dependent knowledge about Kenya, in order to understand the relationship between water scarcity and political stability. To examine this relationship, the case study method is the best way to look into the processes and patterns of this case study in-depth.
4.3 Data Collection
This thesis will not be conducted in Kenya itself, therefore secondary literature sources will be the main sources of this thesis. To gain knowledge about the topic and to build the case study, the most important sources of this thesis will be peer-reviewed articles and reports from organizations like the United Nations. The use of this type of sources will increase the credibility and validity of the thesis. The timeframe that is used in this thesis is the period 1990-2013. This period is chosen because since the 1990s studies of how climate change might affect the environment and human life expanded quickly (Henderson-Sellers & Howe, 1996). Also at that time, international organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established to do further research on the impact of climate change.
Two main data sources in this study are used to build the case study. First an overview of drought episodes is used to exemplify the impact of drought events in Kenya (Huho & Kosonei, 2014). Also, an overview of water related conflicts in the period 1990-2013 is used to indicate the frequency, intensity and geographical location of clashes over water in Kenya (Pacific Institute, 2013).
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Chapter 5. Concepts of Water Scarcity
In this chapter the indicators and concepts used in this thesis are further explained. It is necessary to clarify these concepts before the research is executed because it will elucidate the severity and kind of water scarcity and drought. This section relates to the concepts of security written above as water scarcity and drought are factors that contribute to an environment of human insecurity, that can potentially lead to conflict (Serkeci, 2009).
5.1 Definitions of Drought
Drought occurs in high as well as in low rainfall areas. Drought is a ‘creeping phenomenon’ making an accurate prediction of either its onset or end a difficult task. The severity of drought is also difficult to determine. It is dependent not only on the duration, intensity and geographical extent of a specific drought episode but also on the demands of human activity and by the vegetation on a region’s water supplies (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985, p. 3).
There are four types of droughts; meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought and socioeconomic drought (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985). Meteorological drought is defined as the degree of dryness in comparison to some ‘normal’ or average amount and the duration of the dry period. Definitions of meteorological drought must be considered as region specific since the atmospheric conditions that result in deficiencies of precipitation are highly variable from region to region. The definition of agricultural drought links various characteristics of meteorological drought to agricultural impacts, for example, when the water supply is insufficient to cover livestock or crop water requirements (Gommes & Petrassi, 1996). Hydrological drought is concerned with the effects of periods of precipitation shortfalls on surface or subsurface water supply. The frequency and severity of hydrological drought is often defined on the basis of its influence on river basins (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985). Socioeconomic drought is based on the impact of drought conditions (meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological drought) on supply and demand of some economic goods. Socioeconomic drought occurs when the demand for an economic good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-related deficit in water supply. Socioeconomic drought is worsened by growing populations and excessive demands of goods and the results are often manifested in crop failure leading to famine and economic devastation.
5.2 Water Stress
According to Tatlock (2006), “Water stress refers to economic, social, or environmental problems caused by unmet water needs. Lack of supply is often caused by contamination, drought, or a disruption in distribution”. While water stress occurs throughout the world, no region has been more
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afflicted than sub-Saharan Africa. The major reason why sub-Saharan Africa is more vulnerable to water stress than other regions is because of the insufficient infrastructure. There is a significant disparity within the sub-continent: In sub-Saharan Africa, there are 980 large dams. Around 589 are in South Africa, whereas Tanzania, a country with nearly the same population and land mass, has only two large dams. Also, most water sources in Africa are at least in some sense ‘transboundary’. This means that the available water sources often lead to conflict between the adjoining countries.
5.3 Falkenmark Water Stress Indicator
Several tools and models are developed to determine water scarcity. A widely used measure to indicate the level of water stress is the Falkenmark indicator. It is defined as the average per capita water available per year (Perveen & James, 2011). To develop this measurement, multiple countries were surveyed and the water usage per person in each economy was calculated (Brown & Matlock, 2011). A threshold of 1700 m3 of renewable water resources per capita per year was set, based on estimates of water requirements in the household, industrial and energy sectors, agricultural, and the needs of the environment (Rijsberman, 2006). Countries whose water sources cannot sustain this figure are said to experience water stress. When supply falls below 1000 m3 a country experiences water scarcity, and below the 500 m3 it is called absolute scarcity. To determine the water scarcity in Kenya in this thesis, the Falkenmark indicator is used.
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Chapter 6. Analysis: Water Scarcity
The aim of this analysis is to examine the link between water scarcity and political stability. The analysis section of this thesis consist of three chapters. In the first chapter a brief presentation is given about the impact of water scarcity and drought in Kenya. Then the effects of population growth on available water resources is discussed. Furthermore, the usage of water resources and adaptation to water scarcity is examined. This chapter is built on concepts and theories explained in the theoretical framework, especially the theory of Homer-Dixon (1994) about the causes of environmental scarcity. In the next chapter, the link between tribalism and water related conflicts is explored. In the third chapter the political context of Kenya is explained and nine indicators from the study of Jong-A-Pin (2009) are used to measure the degree of political instability in Kenya. Followed by the conclusion that will recapitulate how water scarcity can be a contributing factor in the evolution of political instability.
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6.1 Geography
Kenya is situated on the East African coast and is bordered by South Sudan and Ethiopia in the north, Somalia and the Indian Ocean to the east, the United Republic of Tanzania to the south and Uganda and Lake Victoria to the west (FAO, 2015). Kenya covers 580 370 km2, including 11 230 km2 of inland water bodies in particular Lake Victoria and Lake Turkana. Much of the country, especially in the north and east is arid to semi-arid. From the Indian Ocean the land rises gradually through dry bush to the arable land of the Central Highlands (Soja, 1968). The Great Rift Valley divides the Central Highlands, which is one of the main features of the country (FAO, 2015). Also characteristic is the large diversity of landscapes, from glaciated mountains to deserts, like the Chalbi desert, hosting a rich biodiversity.
Around 27,4 million hectare of the Kenyan ground is cultivable, of which 6,1 million hectare is cultivated and 21,3 million hectare are permanent pastures (FAO, 2015). To protect the rich biodiversity in Kenya, 47 000 km2 of land are preserved in sanctuaries and national parks. Nonetheless, in 2008 only 3 456 km2 of ground was forested, including 54 m2 of mangroves (Businge et al., 2011).
Kenya is commonly divided into seven major geographic regions, as pictured in figure 3. The
Coastal Region is characterized by a variety of geographical features, the southern shoreline consist
largely of stretches of coral rock and sand interrupted by bays, inlets and branched creeks (African Studies Center, 2015). Traveling inland from the coast, one encounters a narrow plain which finally debouches in a line of discontinues ridges. The Southern Coastal Hinterland is a relatively featureless erosional plain broken in a few places by groups of hills. The Region consist of a belt of plains extending north- and southward to eastern Kenya Highlands (FAO, 2015). The Northern Plain-lands
Region is made up of a series of rapid plains formed by erosion or by great outpourings of lava. The
region includes the Chalbi Desert and Lake Rudolf. The Kenya Highlands Region is characterized by significantly higher altitude, cooler temperatures and more precipitation. The Rift Valley Region encompasses the Eastern Africa’s Rift Valley which was formed by an extended series of faulting rock movements (African Studies Center, 2015). The region stretches southward through the Kenya Highlands into Tanzania. At last, The Western Plateau Region consists mainly of faulted plateaus marked by escarpments, and it forms a part of the extensive basin around Lake Victoria.
6.2 The Kenyan Climate and Water Resources
Given that Kenya straddles the equator, the Kenyan climate varies from tropical on the Indian Ocean coast to arid further inside the country (African Studies Center, 2015). The climate is predominantly influenced by the inter-tropical convergence zone, by the Great Rift Valley and high mountains, and
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by large water bodies. In this part of Africa, seasons are distinguished by duration of rainfall rather than by changes in temperature (FAO, 2015). In the Highlands and the Western Plateau, rain falls in a single long season. The Western Plateau receives over 178 cm precipitation annually. However, more than 80% of the country is arid or semi-arid, receiving less than 51 cm per year. In the dry areas rainfall is sporadic. The arid and semi-arid lands are mostly covered by rangelands and nature reserves, hosting around 80% of the country’s livestock. In the remaining area of land lives around 80% of the population, and this area can be classified as medium to high potential agricultural land. In the high rainfall zone, the intensive agricultural sector predominates (MALF, 2015). In the medium rainfall zone, farming includes cattle and drought-tolerant crops.
Most of Kenya’s water originates from the five main drainage areas in the country: Lake Victoria, the Rift Valley and inland lakes, the Athi River and coast, the Tana River and Ewaso Ng’iro (African Studies Center, 2015). There are six hydro-geological formations which influence the distribution and availability of the groundwater resources. The internal renewable surface water resources are estimated at 20.2 km³/year and renewable groundwater resources at around 3.5 km³/year, but 3.0 km³/year is considered to be overlap between surface and groundwater, which gives a value of total internal renewable water resources of 20.7 km³/year (FAO, 2015). Water resources available per capita is about 650 m3 (World Bank, 2015). According to the Falkenmark indicator, a country experiences water scarcity when supply falls below 1000 m3 per capita (Rijsberman, 2006).
6.3 Causes of the Water Crisis
6.3.1 Drought
Kenya is a highly drought prone country because of its eco-climatic conditions (Mbogo, Inganga & Maina, 2013). Only about 20% of the territory receives high and regular rainfall, the rest of the territory is arid and semi-arid lands were periodical droughts are part of the climate system. Droughts causes huge damages to the Kenyan population, the environment and the economy. It affect the water supply in both urban and rural areas, it causes loss of livelihood and crop failures which contributes to food scarcity. Long periods of drought also causes the deterioration of human health due to malnutrition and poor quality water, that eventually can lead to the deaths of humans, livestock and wildlife.
The main cause for Kenya’s vulnerability to drought is its dependence on rainfall (Mbogo, Inganga & Maina, 2013). The mainstay of the economy, agriculture, is almost entirely rain-fed. Kenya is a water scare country, whose per capita water availability is one of the lowest in Africa, making the access to clean water difficult in most areas of the country. In table 2 an overview is provided of the experienced periods of drought in Kenya since 1990.
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Table 2. Events of Drought and Impact in Kenya
Year Area of occurrence Impact
1991-1992 Arid and Semi-Arid Districs of North Eastern, Rift Valley, Eastern and Coast Provinces
1.5 million people affected
1996-1997 Countrywide 2 million people affected. Declared a
national disaster
1999-2000 Countrywide 2.4 million people affected
2004 Countrywide About 3 million people affected and in need
of relief aid for 8 months to March 2005
2005 Countrywide 2.5 million people close to starvation.
Declared a national disaster
2006 Countrywide 3.5 million in need for food by September.
40 human lives lost and about 40% cattle, 27% sheep and 17% goats lost
2007-2008 Countrywide 4.4 million people affected, 2.6 million
people at risk of starvation, up to 70% loss of livestock in some pastoral communities.
2009- 2010 Countrywide 8.3 million people affected.. Acute food and
water shortages in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas. About 3.8 million people urgently required food aid and about 6.2 million were at risk of starvation. 70-90% loss of livestock by Maasai pastoralists. Loss of wildlife animals: 40 elephants died.
2011 Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Mombasa, Marsabit, Nairobi, Turkana, Samburu and Turkana Counties
6 million people affected. 4.3 million people were in dire need of food
2012 Countrywide 4.8 million people affected. 3.75 million
people in dire need of food by july 2012
2014 Countrywide 2.2 million people were affected and 1.5
million in dire need of food, the IFCR launched an appeal to assist almost 650,000 affected people
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2015-2016 (Ongoing)
Countrywide 4 million people affected. 1.1 million
people food insecure, in need of food assistance for 6 months (September 2015 – February 2016).
(Huho & Kosonei, 2014, p. 16)
Table 2 shows that drought episodes in Kenya are recurring events and that frequency of droughts are increasing. It also shows that the intensity and impact of drought episodes are expanding, as more and more people are affected by droughts. In the next paragraph, the rapid population growth of Kenya is examined. Population growth can besides the increasing frequency of droughts, be another reason for the increasing group of people that is affected by droughts.
6.3.2 Population Growth
There are about 47 million people living in Kenya, of which about 20 million (43 percent) do not have access to clean water (Cook, Kimuyu & Whittington, 2016). The population of Kenya is quickly expanding, from almost 2.9 million people to 40 million people within one century. Kenya has a very young population, almost three-quarters of the population is under the age of 30. Expectations are that the Kenyan population hit 95.5 million by 2050 (United Nations, 2015). stated by
The proportion of urban population in Kenya is also expanding, nowadays around 26.4% of the population lives in urban areas (United Nations, 2015). This rapid urbanization lead to an increased pressure on water supply. Most of the urban poor Kenyans have only access to polluted water, which causes cholera epidemics and multiple other diseases that affect health and livelihoods (Linke et al., 2015). Despite the shortage of clean water in urban slums, there also is a large rural to urban discrepancy in access to clean water. According to the World Bank (2015) 57 percent of the rural population has access to clean water, as opposed to 82 percent of the urban population. The theory of Homer-Dixon (1994) point out that ‘rapid population growth’ and ‘unequal resource distribution’ lead to an increase of environmental scarcity. Both sources are present in Kenya, and both are contributing to Kenya’s water crisis.
According to the Falkenmark indicator, a country experiences water scarcity when supply falls below 1000 m3, and experience absolute scarcity below 500 m3 (Rijsberman, 2006). The per capita available water in Kenya is about 650 m3 (World Bank, 2015). Future projections show that by 2025, per capita water availability will drop to 235 m3/year as a result of population growth.
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6.3.3 Poor Management of Water Supply
Due to the increasing population and increasing use of water for agriculture, there has been an increased need for funding, managing and developing water resources in Kenya. However, the actions taken have not been effective because organizations that are in charge of managing water resources have mostly failed. Kenya’s water resources have been mismanaged through unsustainable water and land use policies, laws and institutions, growing pollution, weak water allocation practices and increasing degradation of rivers, lakes, wetlands, aquifers and their catchments (Linke et al., 2015). In 1974 the Kenyan government devised a plan that all households would have access to safe water by the year 2000. To manage water effectively, the National Water Conservation and the Pipeline Corporation were established. But in the 1980s the government experienced budget problems and knew it would not meet its goals by the year 2000. Therefore, the government handed the rural and urban water systems over to the communities and departments within local authorities, so they would take responsibility for preserving and managing the water systems. Another problem to the mismanagement of the government is a problem of private investors not willing to provide water services in Kenya. The main reason for this is that access to clean water has become a human right (Meshel, 2015). As a consequence investors fear that the government may interfere in business decisions, like determine the price investors can charge.
In accordance with the theory of Homer-Dixon (1991), it seems that Kenya is not able to supply the social and technical ingenuity that is needed to tackle the water scarcity. Kenya is underendowed with social institutions, like productive research centers and efficient markets that are necessary for the supply of both technical and social solutions to the water scarcity. Also, Kenya is not able to maintain the created institutions, like the Pipeline Corporation and the National Water Conservation plan.
6.3.4 Contamination of Water
Another problem that contributes to the worsening of Kenya’s water crisis is the disability to maintain clean water (Linke et al., 2015). As described in the theoretical framework, Homer-Dixon (1994) advocates three main sources that cause environmental scarcity. One source is environmental change, which refers to a human induces decline in the quantity or quality of a renewable resource that occurs faster than it is renewed by natural processes. In Kenya, water pollution is a result of human activities and industrialization processes. Water resources are under pressure from agricultural chemicals and urban and industrial wastes, as well as from use for hydroelectric power (Kithiia, 2012). The rapid population growth in Kenya have led to uncontrolled settlements in urban slums with poor drainage and sanitary facilities. These uncontrolled settlements are mostly located near or on top of the rivers courses draining the city and contribute significant pollutants amounts and water quality degradation.
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In addition, water resources in Kenya are increasingly being polluted by organic, inorganic and microbial matter (Kithiia, 2012). The impact of pollution on water resources is manifested by water of poor quality which gives rise to water toxicity to humans, animals and aquatic life. It also contributes to high cost of water supply as polluted water is expensive to treat. Contaminated water can cause cholera epidemics and other infection diseases, which affect the health and livelihoods of urban slums inhabitants.
6.4 Adapting to Water Scarcity
Water is the most limiting factor in crop and livestock production in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya. The agricultural sector withdrawals around 60 percent of the available freshwater sources (Aquastat, 2015). Around 55.25 percent of the Kenyan population is economically active. The majority of this percentage is employed in the agricultural sector, and most of these are smallholders (UNDP, 2013). Agriculture in Kenya is predominantly rain-fed making it highly vulnerable to climate change. In ASALs is the main livestock production strategy through pastoralism, in which people raise herd animals as a means to earn a livelihood (Orindi, Nyong & Herrero, 2007). Pastoralism relies on the availability of water, pastures and labour to thrive, with water as the determining factor. The pastoral livelihoods are under severe threats from recurrent droughts. The pastoralist communities have developed mechanisms to cope with these droughts. However, these strategies are no longer adequate as the droughts have increased in magnitude and frequency. Coping strategies exerted are for example, keeping mixed herd of grazers and browsers because different groups of animals are unlikely to be affected in the same way during a period of drought (Mc Cabe, 1990). Also they often stock more productive females in their herds to ensure that animals lost are easily replaced when the climatic situation improves. But under extreme drought conditions, some pastoralist groups like the Maasai and Turkana have adopted non-pastoral activities like charcoal burning of engaged in other forms of employment for income (Oba, 2001). However, the pastoralists livelihoods are threatened by the dwindling sources like water and forage, and some of these communities see no other option than to migrate to better areas, like the high potential areas of the Kajiado District where they can practice crop farming (Orindi, Nyong & Herrero, 2007).
Adaption to climate change at the farm level includes also many different strategies, such as changing crop practices, like choice of fields and crop varieties, and land use and management, like tree planting for protection, irrigation systems and soil and water conservation measures (Bryan, Ringler, Okoba, Roncoli, Silverstri & Herrero, 2013). Just like the pastoralists also the farmers adopt a combination of agricultural and non-farm activities, and sometimes they also need to migrate temporary or permanent to better areas for sustaining the livelihood.
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To help ASALs communities cope with the effects of climate change, the government of Kenya, international aid agencies and non-governmental organizations have channeled significant resources (Mude, Ouma, van de Steeg, Kariuki, Opiyo & Tipilda, 2009). The most recent project is funded by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank, and is called Kenya Adaption to Climate Change in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (KACCAL). The aim of this project is to develop and pilot a range of coping mechanisms for reducing the vulnerability of small-holder farmers and pastoralists in rural Kenya to long-term climate change, including variability (Omuko, 2015). This should be achieved through enhanced access to and management of water for irrigation, promotion of indigenous crops and promoting livestock varieties that are more suited to the climate and the promotion and development of alternative livelihood opportunities. The project is also strengthening climate risk management planning and capacity of District level planners to mainstream climate change into District-level sectoral development plans. The KALLAC project started in June 2010 and ends in November 2016. The Implementation Status and Result Report from May 2015 indicates that the project is far from its end goal (World Bank, 2015).
6.5 Sub Conclusion
According to the theory of Homer-Dixon (1994), three main sources can lead to an increase of environmental scarcity. These sources are environmental change, population growth and unequal resource distribution, which all play a role in the Kenyan water crisis. In Kenya water has always been a scare resource, but future predictions indicate that by the year 2025 the per capita water availability will drop to 235 m3/year, which is marked, according to the Falkenmark indicator, as extreme scarcity (Rijsberman, 2006). Water scarcity in Kenya is caused by a mixture of climate change, population growth and a poor management of water supply, especially in the agricultural sector. The agricultural sector is the main source of income for many Kenyans. The sector is predominantly rain-fed, making it highly vulnerable to climate change. Also, the periods of droughts in Kenya are worsening in frequency and intensity, which has a devastating effect on the agricultural communities and food supplies.
In the next chapter, the periods of drought explored in this section are linked to water related conflicts. Also, the role of Kenyan tribalism in water related conflicts is examined.
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Chapter 7. Analysis: Tribalism and Water Related Conflicts
In the previous chapter, the impact of drought episodes on the Kenyan population is examined. Furthermore, the causes of water scarcity were explained as well as adaptation strategies to cope with the increasing episodes of drought. In this chapter, an attempt will be made to link the episodes of drought explained in the previous chapter, with events of water related conflicts. Also, the role of Kenyan tribalism in water related conflicts is examined.
7.1 Kenyan Tribalism
Tribalism in Kenya is not a historical inevitability (Masakhalia, 2008). It cannot be traced to ancient warfare or hatreds from cultures clashing over the ages. The roots of Kenya’s ‘tribes’ today are to be found in the colonial history of Kenya (Robertson, 2008). Kenya was under British colonial rule in the period 1895 until 1964 (Gertzel, Goldschmidt & Rothchild, 1970). The major opposing groups in Kenya today, the westerners from western Kenya (Luhya, Kalenjin, Kissi & Luo) and the GEMA from the Mount Kenya (Kikuyu, Meru & Embu people) had little to no contact with one another before the colonialist came. This means that Kenya’s tribalism is a relatively new phenomenon (Masakhalia, 2011). It is a product of modern times, arising from colonialism, urbanization and the political culture that sprung up in independent Kenya.
Before British colonialization, the Kenyan tribes lived in their own districts where they lived up to their own cultures (Masakhalia, 2011). The communities lived free from each other and no conflicts about water or pasture for livestock occurred. Some tribes, like the Kikuyu and the Masaai, lived peacefully in the same areas and intermarried regularly. But then the British colonizers arrived and brought with them the principle of ‘divide and rule’ which polarized the various ethnic groups in Kenya. They magnified differences among the tribes and divided them from each other using population control policies (Robertson, 2008). The British viewed tribal designations as fixed, for example; The Maasai people were tall, thin and dark-skinned and were great warriors, while the Kikuyu people were short, lighter-skinned and more suited for farming. The colonial government also made it illegal for different tribes to go onto each other’s reserves, which contributed to the creation of ethnic differences. This served as the breeding ground for negative tribal stereotypes which then became embedded in popular belief (Masakhalia, 2011). So ‘tribalism’ was an effective way to keep power, but it did not necessarily reflect Kenyan society (Robertson, 2008).
Multiple studies have showed that environmental scarcities can lead to escalation of an existing socio-economic conflict, like tribal rivalries (Gleditsch, 1998; Hauge & Ellingsen, 1998; Kahl, 2006; Homer-Dixon, 2010). In Kenya, most conflicts over water are subjected to the pastoralist groups (Haro, Doyo & McPeak, 2005; Orindi, Nyong & Herrero, 2007). The general consensus is that
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climate change have led to pastoralism coming under threat which results in an increase in inter-tribal conflicts over natural resources. In the next paragraph, the theory of Homer-Dixon (1994) is used to explain the link between water scarcity and the eruption of violent conflict in Kenya.
7.2 Drought and Pastoralism
Homer-Dixon (1994) explains the relationship between water scarcity and conflict as follows. Water scarcity is caused by three main sources: Population growth, decreases in the quantity and quality of renewable resources and unequal resource access. These sources act singly or in various combinations and lead to an increase of water scarcity for certain population groups. Water scarcity can therefore reduce economic productivity, both for the local groups experiencing the scarcity and for the larger national and regional economies. People affected by water scarcity may migrate or expelled to new lands. Migrating groups often trigger ethnic conflicts when they move to new areas, while decreases in wealth can cause deprivation conflicts such as rural rebellion and insurgency. The productivity losses and migrations may in developing countries eventually weaken the state, which in turn decreases central control over ethnic rivalries and increases opportunities for insurgents and elites challenging state authority.
In earlier chapters of this thesis it is shown that all three sources as stated by Homer-Dixon (1994) play a role in the Kenyan water crisis. It is also shown that water scarcity in Kenya reduce economic productivity, especially in the agricultural sector. In the arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) in Kenya, pastoralism is the major agricultural production strategy. ASALs cover about 80% of Kenya’s landmass and support about a third of the country’s population (Schilling, Opiyo & Scheffran, 2012). Pastoralism is practiced by the majority of Turkana and Pokot ethnic groups and is mainly nomadic transhumance. In pre-colonial days, there was no restriction on movement and pastoralists could freely move beyond national borders in search for water in times of drought (Berger, 2003). But when the international borders were fixed, this free movement was restricted to national borders, and while in normal years pasture and water resources were sufficient between those national borders, it was not in low rainfall or droughts years. This made that the pastoralist communities across the region depend on the same communal pool of scare resources (Eriksen & Lind, 2009). As a consequence, conflicts between pastoralists arose and the increasing frequency and severity of the periods of drought forced people to migrate. Some people dropped completely out of the pastoralist lifestyle, and moved to urban centers to seek casual work (Kaimba, Njehia & Guliye, 2011). At the same time, the competition between pastoralist communities for scare natural resources continued. The absence of the government in some rural parts of Kenya makes people take the law into their own hands. Remote areas in the North of Kenya rely on community-organized security groups, such as home guards and police reservists to maintain law and order (Schilling, Opiyo &
