the effect of over-subsidized solar PV originating from the People’s Republic of China on the Dutch innovation system in solar PV

Bachelor Thesis by: Demian Siffels

Period: 2013-2014

Student number: 10069070 UvanetID: 6324657

Specialization: Future Planet Studies + major Economics

Number of credits thesis: 12EC

Title of your thesis: the effect of over-subsidized solar PV originating from the People’s

Republic of China on the Dutch innovation system in solar PV

Abstract

This research investigates the claim that over-subsidized Chinese solar PV is harmful to the European Union and the Netherlands specifically. It does this by considering the long-term effects on the technological innovation system (TIS) in the Netherlands. The period for which over-subsidization is considered to be grounded by the European Council (2009-2012) is investigated. During the IP no virtuous cycles are triggered in the TIS. The over-subsidization increased downstream activity by accelerating price reductions. Furthermore the TIS structure undergoes a transition from several manufacturing companies to just companies that focus on efficiency increasing technology. It is argued that this shift is facilitated by the competition from China. Also TIS literature suggests a missed opportunity by the government to utilize the Chinese PV to further boost the TIS.

1. Introduction

In a time where fossil fuel prices are predicted to rise and where global warming is a public concern, renewable energy development is of prime importance to a lot of developed countries. This is indicated by the investments made in the sector in 2012, estimated to be 244 billion USD globally [ CITATION REN13 \l 1043 ]. The

importance is also indicated by the growing number of countries having policy targets for renewable energy. By 2012 there were 138 countries that stated such targets [ CITATION REN13 \l 1043 ]. Europe in particular, has an ambitious goal of producing twenty percent of its energy consumption from renewables by 2020, as stated in the ‘202020’ goal [ CITATION Com10 \l 1043 ]. Another important player is China, which recently sharpened its renewable energy program in the transition from the 11th _{to the 12}th _{five year plan [CITATION Bay11 \p 17 \l} 1043 ]

This 12th _{five year plan focused particularly on solar photovoltaics (Solar PV). Solar PV is a promising technology} to help achieving renewable energy targets as it is clean, safe and efficient. Therefore, it has great potential as a future renewable energy source as demonstrated in the past few years. The technology improved, prices dropped and according to the ‘renewable energy network 21’ the installed capacity rose from only 24 gigawatts in 2009 to over 100 gigawatts in 2012. In 2012 alone an additional 35.5 gigawatts of capacity was produced. [CITATION REN13 \p 40 \l 1043 ]. The rapid expansion of the technology was not in the least because of the increased production of PV in China. Production capacity in China rose from an estimated 1 gigawatt in 2008 to about 20 gigawatts in 2011[CITATION Bay11 \p 12 \l 1043 ]. By the end of 2012 China accounted for more than a third of global panel shipments [CITATION REN13 \p 41 \l 1043 ].

Recently, the rapid expansion of the Chinese PV industry has become a matter of public debate as it was given repeated media attention (BBC, 2013; NOS, 2013). It was argued that the exported solar panels where over-subsidized and thereby posing competition for the European PV manufacturers that was unfair, as forbidden by the WTO. The European commission ought there to be enough prima facie evidence to initiate an investigation in unfair competition. The investigation closed with the conclusion that there was indeed over-subsidization which lead to dumping practices. [CITATION Cou13 \l 1043 ]. It has to be noted though, that a quick glance at the report showed that it was hard to pinpoint a single subsidy that was decisive in itself.

Even though the unfair competition might have cost the European manufacturers substantial market share, it also increased cheap PV installation opportunities in Europe. In a time where transition to renewable energy is of paramount importance one might argue that this is beneficial for the EU as a whole. It might therefore be a more interesting question how the alleged unfair competition affects the EU transition to renewable energy in the long-run. To investigate this, it is possible to look at the R&D activity in the long-run. However, over the past decades an approach has been developed that explains the development of (renewable energy) technology more thoroughly (Hekkert et al., 2007). In this so called innovation system (IS) approach it is acknowledged that not only R&D determines the success of a technology, which is an example of linear model thinking, but the interaction between the social system and the technology under consideration is also important (Negro et al., 2009). Also, when R&D is primarily performed by subsidized entities, the effect of something like unfair competition will be limited. R&D effort will also not explain the different success rates of PV in different countries were the technology level is similar. Therefore, for long-term effects, here the influence of the unfair competition on this innovation system is analyzed.

Due to the scope of this research and the inter country differences within the EU, this research will start off by investigating the influence of the unfair competition on the IS in one European country. The Netherlands are particularly interesting, because of the long history of effort in promoting PV and the relatively low-results (Negro et al., 2009). Therefore, a potential positive or negative influence on the innovation system, might be more decisive than in other countries. This lead to the following research question: what is the effect of over-subsidized solar PV originating from the People’s Republic of China on the Dutch innovation system in solar PV? It is expected, that the rapid increase in exported Chinese PV will indeed show to coincide with the strong increase in Dutch PV activity in the last years. This will identify the possible positive influence of the over-subsidized PV on the activity in the Dutch innovation system. It is also expected that the negative impact on the innovation system will be limited. This because the unfair competition, by eroding profit margins, will at most have a harmful effects on private R&D. However, the R&D on solar PV in the Netherlands is primarily not

dependent on the private profitability. For example R&D is performed by the Dutch universities of: Utrecht, Delft, Groningen, Nijmegen, Wageningen, Eindhoven and Twente. Other institutions that perform R&D are AMOLF, Ecofys, ECN and TNO. All of these institutions are either subsidized or work in projects that are comissioned by private firms [ CITATION Age11 \l 1043 ].

Literature shows multiple approaches for analyzing an innovation system. In this case, the Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) approach seems most suitable. This approach focuses on a specific technology and therefore includes technology specific aspects (Negro, 2007). It also has been employed multiple times to analyze renewable energy development (Negro, 2007; Negro et al., 2009). The Dutch TIS for PV has already been analyzed using this approach, up to 2009 and this paper might therefore be an addition to existing literature due to the recent developments. Also in Dutch media it is often presumed that companies went bankrupt due to chinese competition and the cheap solar PV caused a rapid increase in installed capacity (Schiffers & Brinken, 2012; Offringa, 2011). However, no research has been done on these relations yet. Therefore, this paper will serve as an explorative research in the recent developments in Dutch PV in order to create possibilities for further research.

The next section will continue to describe the theoretical framework in more detail. In section 3, the

methodology on how the IS approach will be employed, is elaborated on. Section 3 will also explain the means of data collection. Thereafter, in section 4 the results will be presented graphically followed by a narrative of the results in section 5. Finally, the last section will provide conclusions and a discussion in regard to the main question.

1. Theoretical Framework Technological Innovation

To analyze technological innovations one might just look at the knowledge development by the research and development activity. However, merely R&D activity will not guarantee that a technology will be successfully brought to useful applications or attract interest in order to develop it further. Instead, the innovation process is far more complex and dependent on an interplay of factors like policy, market, science and technology.

[CITATION Neg07 \t \l 1043 ]. This complex system is called an innovation system. The innovation systems approach is a framework that is well established in the field of innovation studies because its ability to understand technological change [CITATION Hek09 \t \l 1043 ].

Innovation Systems

By definition an innovation system is “a network of institutions, public or private, whose activities and

interactions initiate, import, modify and diffuse new technologies” [CITATION Hek09 \p 2 \t \l 1043 ]. Literature

on the subject is large, because multiple approaches have been developed to analyze an innovation system. Examples are the National Systems of Innovation (NSI) approach, the Sectoral Systems of Innovation approach and the Technological Innovation Systems (TIS) approach. [CITATION Neg07 \t \l 1043 ]. Of these approaches, mainly the geographical scope and focus differs (see figure 1 by Hekkert et al., 2007). Firstly, the National Systems of Innovation looks at innovation in general within the country border. Secondly, the Sectoral

Innovation Systems approach focuses specifically on agents and firms within a sector. Finally, the Technological Innovation Systems approach focuses on the level of a specific technology. (Hekkert et al. 2007). Therefore, focusing on solar PV, the latter seems to be the most appropriate. It is also possible to choose a National Systems of Innovation approach and thereby making inferences about the technology under consideration. However, this is more difficult due to the complexity of the system. A TIS approach, by focusing on a specific technology, allows for a more detailed view, thereby providing more insight in technology specific interactions. Since for the influence of Chinese solar PV competition very specific interactions are needed, this paper will employ a TIS approach.

The structure of an innovation system consists of the actors, institutions, networks and technological factors. The current state of an innovation system can be described in great detail as described by Hekkert in 2011 [CITATION Hek11 \t \l 1043 ]. The result however, is rather static of nature. To analyze how an IS develops over time, another approach is needed. More specifically, it would require to analyze the development of all underlying factors (social, political, etc.) that contribute to the IS. In innovation studies, the most important underlying factors are identified through empirical studies. Those determinants of a TIS are called system functions. [CITATION Neg07 \t \l 1043 ].

System Functions

The system functions break the entire functioning of a TIS down to a set of most important underlying factors. Therefore, carefully chosen system functions are needed. Only by testing these functions empirically and by analyzing recurring patterns, the most important functions can be found. Therefore, it should be noted, that there is no full consensus in the literature on which functions should be distinguished. Fortunately though, there is a strong development towards a certain set of functions as described by Hekkert and Negro in 2009. These are also the functions that are used in all examined studies that employed the TIS approach and thus are tested most thoroughly in this setting. Also, these seven functions coincide with seven out of eight functions that are found to be most often employed in IS literature by a study of Johnson in 2001 [ CITATION Joh01 \l 1043 ]. For these reasons, this paper will use this function definition as also used by Hekkert and Negro in 2009. In order to create consistency within literature and make inferences over multiple studies, it is important that

Figure 1: Difference in scope of different IS approaches. Note that a TIS (here called TSIS) can overlap country boundaries (the national innovation systems). However, in this paper the focus on the Netherlands is chosen for more scope. Figure by Hekkert et al. (2009).

the same system functions are analyzed. Therefore, the definition of functions by Hekkert and Negro (2009, p3) are taken over literally here.

Function 1: Entrepreneurial Activities.

The existence of entrepreneurs in innovation systems is of prime importance. Without entrepreneurs

innovation would not take place and the innovation system would not even exist. The role of the entrepreneur is to turn the potential of new knowledge development, networks and markets into concrete action to generate and take advantage of business opportunities.

Function 2: Knowledge Development (learning).

Mechanisms of learning are at the heart of any innovation process. For instance, according to Lundvall: “the most fundamental resource in the modern economy is knowledge and, accordingly, the most important process is learning” [ CITATION Lun92 \l 1043 ]. Therefore, R&D and knowledge development are prerequisites within the innovation system. This function encompasses ‘learning by searching’ and ‘learning by doing’.

Function 3: Knowledge Diffusion through Networks.

According to Carlsson and Stankiewicz (1991) the essential function of networks is the exchange of information. This is important in a strict R&D setting, but especially in a heterogeneous context where R&D meets

government, competitors and market. Here policy decisions (standards, long term targets) should be consistent with the latest technological insights and, at the same time, R&D agendas are likely to be affected by changing norms and values. For example if there is a strong focus by society on renewable energy it is likely that a shift in R&D portfolios occurs towards a higher share of renewable energy projects. This way, network activity can be regarded as a precondition to ‘learning by interacting’. When user producer networks are concerned, it can also be regarded as ‘learning by using’.

Function 4: Guidance of the Search.

The activities within the innovation system that can positively affect the visibility and clarity of specific wants among technology users fall under this system function. An example is the announcement of the policy goal to aim for a certain percentage of renewable energy in a future year. This grants a certain degree of legitimacy to the development of sustainable energy technologies and stimulates the mobilization of resources for this development. Expectations are also included, as occasionally expectations can converge on a specific topic and generate a momentum for change in a specific direction.

Function 5: Market Formation.

A new technology often has difficulties to compete with incumbent technologies, as is often the case for sustainable technologies. Therefore it is important to create protected spaces for new technologies. One possibility is the formation of temporary niche markets for specific applications of the technology. This can be done by governments but also by other agents in the innovation system. Another possibility is to create a temporary competitive advantage by favorable tax regimes or minimal consumption quotas, activities in the sphere of public policy.

Function 6: Resource Mobilization.1

Resources, both financial and human, are necessary as a basic input to all the activities within the innovation system. For example, for PV, the abundant availability of silicon might be an underlying factor determining the success or failure of a project. (Negro et al., 2009)

Function 7: Creation of legitimacy/counteract resistance to change.

In order to develop well, a new technology has to become part of an incumbent regime, or has to even overthrow it. Parties with vested interests will often oppose this force of ‘creative destruction’. In that case,

1 This definition is altered from the source of Hekkert & Negro (2009) to be specific for solar PV. Therefore, the reference to Negro et al. (2009) is supplied.

advocacy coalitions can function as a catalyst to create legitimacy for the new technology and to counteract resistance to change.

All functions need to be fulfilled to a certain extent in order for the TIS to develop successfully. So strong influence of the Chinese PV competition on any of these functions might provide insight in the long-term development of the TIS. However, to which extent an event leads to function fulfillment is difficult to determine and therefore the theory mostly leads to qualitative rather than quantitative insights. (Hekkert & Negro, 2009). Also research in the field of renewable energy showed that certain functions are more or less important for the technology to develop further depending on the current state of the TIS. For example, knowledge development (F2) is more important at the earlier stages of a technology (Negro et al., 2009). From Negro et al. (2009) it is also known that especially a strongly fluctuating guidance of the search (F4) and market formation (F5) can be damaging for the build-up of the innovation system. These empirical insights are important when analyzing the TIS in order not to over or under estimate the importance of a system function.

In the innovation systems literature, special attention is given to possible reinforcing patterns in between the system functions. These patterns occur when the fulfillment of one function triggers the fulfillment of another. These so called virtuous cycles are key for a technology to break through and are also called ‘motors of change’[CITATION Suu091 \t \l 1043 ]. Vicious cycles are also possible, in which the negative fulfillment of one function leads to other functions not being fulfilled (also called motors of decline). The latter can eventually lead to a collapse of the TIS. (Hekkert & Negro, 2009). Hekkert and Negro also showed that some functions seem to be more important than others in triggering these cycles. Again especially guidance of the search (F4) and market formation (F5) are important. When both fulfilled simultaneously, they are able to trigger great improvement in entrepreneurial activities (F1) which is marked as the driving force of innovation. See figure 2 for some typical virtuous cycles. These specific empirical findings will be used in this paper to identify possible virtuous or vicious cycles set off by the Chinese imported PV.

Figure 2: Typical virtuous cycles as found by empirical research. Note that it is also possible for one virtuous cycle (A) to set off other virtuous cycles like (B). i.e. more entrepreneurial activities might amplify itself using route A and the additional activity might then lobby for more allocation of resources (B). Figure from Hekkert et al. (2007).

Process Method

Now that there is a definition of the system functions, a method is needed to map the sequence and

interactions of these functions. A statistical analysis like the variance method can be used (Hekkert et al., 2007). However, this does not account for the sequence of events and will therefore not lead to insights in how the TIS develops. Therefore, like in multiple recent studies (Negro et al., 2009; Negro, 2007; Suurs & Hekkert, 2009), here the process method is employed. This is a more qualitative research method which is developed by van de Ven et al. It is originally used on the innovation project level, but is also proven to be functional at the

theory on TIS. The process method is a longitudinal research method, in which an event sequence is

constructed. This sequence can then be used to assemble a narrative about the TIS. In the narrative the focus lays on extracting interaction patterns and logically, the focus in this paper will lie on extracting those interaction patterns that are initiated by the import of over-subsidized PV. (Hekkert & Negro, 2009). It is important to stress that insight in the occurrence and chronological order of events will not necessarily be causal of nature. Empirical theory on system functions will help to compare with other innovation systems, however this will not provide definitive conclusions on causality. This research is needed however, since no such explorative research on the impact of over-subsidized PV on the Dutch PV has been performed up to this point.

2. Methods & data collection The investigation period

First of all, it is needed to operationalize exactly what unfair competition is studied in this paper. Namely, the misleading ease with which the media speaks of ‘over-subsidized solar PV’ seems to implicate an easy

observable subsidy. However, a quick glance at the report of the Council of the EU (2013) shows otherwise. The original complaint by the accuser ‘Solarworld’, filed a total of 200 subsidies [ CITATION Bay11 \l 1043 ]. So the unfair competition comes from a wide set of measures all aimed at stimulating the PV sector. To give an idea, here an overview is provided only of the measures that were actually found to be significant:

-preferential loans -credit lines

-export guarantees and insurance -the golden sun program

-the two free three half program -indirect tax and import tariff programs -tax reduction for designated projects

- tax off-set for R&D by FIE’s (replaced by EIT law) -VAT rebates on FIE purchases of domestically produced equipment

-power for too little remuneration -land rights for too little remuneration

Some of these subsidies promoted the domestic demand, whereas others reduce costs and provide exporting incentives. For more details on the subsidies, the reader is referred to the report by the Council of the EU (2013). All these subsidies collectively lead to over-subsidization which lead to over-capacity, which in turn lead to dumping against below adequate prices (i.e. unfair competition). Therefore, not a specific subsidy, but instead the combination of these subsidies should be analyzed during the investigated period. The commission investigated unfair subsidization from 1 January 2009 till 30 June 2012. For this period both accusations about unfair subsidization and dumping practices were found to be grounded [ CITATION Cou131 \l 1043 ]. Therefore the imported PV during the investigated period, from now on called the ‘IP’2_{, will be operationalized as the} over-subsidized PV.

The subsidy programs obviously did not all start at the same time. For example, the renewable energy law (REL) was already passed in 2006. This law promoted renewable energy, it “set targets for domestic deployment of PV and is the framework for tax incentives and financial subsidies” [CITATION Bay11 \p 17 \l 1043 ]. The 11th _five year plan, even though less ambitious than the 12th _{five year plan for 2011-2015, also set targets and provided} incentives for renewable energy for the years 2006-2010 [ CITATION Bay11 \l 1043 ]. So even though it is not clear to pinpoint when the subsidies became “unfair” it seems reasonable to work with the investigated period by the European Council. This because the report shows a clear trend in this period in rapidly rising export numbers (see table 1 & 2).

Table 1: Import of modules from the PRC (in MW), (Council of the EU, 2013)

2009 2010 2011 Up to June 2012

Imported modules from the PRC

Index (2009=100%) 100 251 462 408

Market share in total market 60%-65% 68%-73% 75%-80% 78-83%

2 Note that this is a different use of the abbreviation IP than in the report of the EU itself. The report uses IP as the period during the investigation whereas here, the period that is investigated is meant.

Table 2: Import of cells from the PRC (in MW), (Council of the EU, 2013)

2009 2010 2011 Up to June 2012

Imported cells of the PRC

Index (2009=100%) 100 273 491 506

Market share in total market 5%-10% 12%-17% 17%-22% 22-27%

In conclusion it might be that some unfair subsidies were already granted before 2009. However, looking at the numbers it seems that only after 2009 this induced a significant increase in PV production. Also, it seems reasonable only to work with claims that are proven which provides more reason to consider the imported PV during the investigated period by the EU as the unfair competition.

The process method

The process method starts with a collection of events that possibly contributed to the IS. The focus of the TIS approach makes it possible to collect all events around a specific technology. However, doing so, would result in loss of explanatory power. Therefore only the events that are reported at system level are ought to be

significant. Sources to collect these events are: newspapers, professional journals and data search. (Hekkert et al., 2007).

The collected events are listed in a database in chronological order, along with reference and category. After this, they are allocated by using a classification scheme that allocates every event to one of the system functions (see appendix A for the classification scheme). (Negro, 2007). Based on Hekkert et al. (2007) the following guidelines will be used to assess the system functions:

Function Means of analysis

1 Mapping the number of new entrants, the number of diversification activities of incumbent actors, and the number of experiments with the new technology.

2 Mapping R&D projects and investments in R&D.

3 Mapping the number of workshops and conferences devoted to a specific technology topic, and by mapping the network size and intensity over time.

4 Mapping specific targets set by governments or industries regarding the use of a specific technology and by mapping the number of articles in professional journals that raise or lower expectations about new technological developments

5 This function can be analyzed by mapping the number of niche markets that have been introduced, specific tax regimes for new technologies, and new environmental standards that improve the chances for new environmental technologies.

6 Difficult to map by means of a specific indicator. In this case the best suited method for this function is to detect whether or not core actors perceive access to sufficient resources as problematic. Financial resources are also considered.

7 Mapping the rise and growth of interest groups and their lobby actions.

Some of the events will contribute positively, some negatively, this will be illustrated by assigning a +1 or -1 to each event (neutral events will be assigned +/-1). The latter can graphically be presented, a figure is created for every system function and for every year. This will provide specific insights in order to produce a comprehensive narrative of the technology under consideration. The specifics of this method are retrieved from Negro (2007). The narrative (the dynamic analysis) will depart from a static state of the TIS. The narrative in this paper will depart from the end-state of the dynamic analysis of Negro et al. (2009) that analyzed the development of the Dutch TIS of PV up till 2009. In the narrative will be accounted for the relative importance of different functions in different stages of technology development. Hekkert (2011) distinguishes four development phases: pre-development, pre-development, take-off and acceleration phase. Since there is a rapidly growing market for PV

[ CITATION REN13 \l 1043 ], the technology is clearly in the acceleration phase. In this phase the function market formation is identified as the most important one and the three most important supportive functions are guidance of the search, entrepreneurial activity and resource mobilization [CITATION Hek11 \t \l 1043 ]. In the narrative the focus lies on these system functions, identifying specific interactions and possible motors of change/decline caused by the import of Chinese PV. If no motors of change can be identified, it is still possible to look were these cycles could have easily been set off by conscience intervention. The latter would have policy implications.

Data collection

In order to collect data the following sources were used: newspapers, the website of the Dutch government, a web search and an academic journal search. Firstly, the newspaper articles of the investigated period were analyzed using the 'LexisNexis' newspaper database. In order to get reporting as complete as possible, not one, but three newspapers were analyzed. The three newspapers were chosen that reported the most events on solar energy, it were all national newspapers so only events of presumed national importance would be found. Those were, in descending order of reported events, the financial newspaper (in Dutch: Financieele Dagblad), 'Trouw' and 'the NRC'. The completeness of the search was confirmed by an increasing number of double reported events with every added newspaper. After this, the Dutch government site was analyzed for policy and state of events in the PV innovation system. Additionally two academic papers were used that described the structure of the innovation system in the Netherlands. Lastly, every found event was checked on follow ups, possible bankruptcies or start up dates within the investigated period and closely related events. The latter was performed using a web search.

3. Results

Below a graphical representation of the events is presented, for a complete description of events please consult the event database in Appendix B. The graphs will help to produce a narrative by identifying gaps in function fulfillment and possible function interactions. As can be seen, function one is fulfilled consistently throughout the IP. Only in 2009, were the over-subsidized PV sector just started to press down module prices with an average price as high as 2.4€/Wp (PvXchange.com, 2014), a manufacturing company was founded. The other data points represent PV module efficiency enhancing companies and installer activity due to increased added capacity. The negative points represent the bankruptcies (or production stop) of literally all module

manufacturers that were active in the Netherlands; Scheuten Solar, Solland Solar, Solar Modules NL and Advanced Photovoltaic Applications (APA).

Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Function 1 Fulfillment

Graph 1 Fulfillment of function 1 'Entrepreneurial Activity' throughout the IP

Function two is knowledge development. According to Hekkert (2011), this function is less important if the technology is in the ‘acceleration phase’ like solar PV. Along with the bankruptcies of Scheuten Solar, Solar Modules and APA, their contributions to R&D also stopped. Note that these are already listed as negative

events in entrepreneurial activity. Fortunately at about the same time at about the same time, two research

Both collaborations join several entities of the fragmented R&D institutions in the Netherlands. Since R&D activity is now joined and the collaborations are (partly) subsidized, the function knowledge development is not considered to be a limiting factor for the TIS. Especially since solar PV is not in the pre-development phase as described by Hekkert (2011). Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.81 1.2

Function 2 Fulfillment

Graph 2 Fulfillment of function 2 'Knowledge development' throughout the IP

Function three is about knowledge development through networks. Again, since solar PV is in the acceleration phase, knowledge development is not of prime importance. Still, three networks are set up during the IP; SEAC, SICC and TKI Solar Energy (Top sector Knowledge and Innovation). Also conferences are being held. This function is therefore not considered as a limiting factor.

Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Function 3 Fulfillment

Graph 3 Fulfillment of function 3 'Knowledge diffusion through networks' throughout the IP

Function four is about guidance of the search. When the intermittent goal of 10 percent renewable energy by 2010 was reached (Negro et al., 2009), no new intermittent goals were set till 2020. This absence of legitimacy is a clear lack of guidance for the year 2010 onwards. However, in 2012 solar energy is selected as a top sector in the Dutch Innovation system. Shortly thereafter, all election programs show positive expectations of

thetowards the 202020 goal. These events are positive guidance of the search, but happen only after Chinese

PV allowed record numbers of PV to be installed throughout the IP. Empirical research shows that guidance of the search is an important supportive function in the acceleration phase (Hekkert & Negro, 2009; Hekkert, 2011). Therefore, the long absence of guidance in the beginning of the IP can be a limiting factor.

Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Function 4 Fulfillment

Graph 4 Fulfillment of function 4 'Guidance of the search' throughout the IP

Function five embodies market formation. This is primarily done by intervening with market conditions to create niche markets. Earlier TIS research identified this function as the most important prerequisite of TIS development during the acceleration phase (Hekkert & Negro, 2009; Hekkert, 2011). 2009 Starts of positive with a new subsidy announced for solar PV, the SDE 2009. Thereafter, every subsequent year a new subsidy is announced in the form of the SDE+ regulations. However, listing these as positive function fulfillment will not be adequate. This because first of all, this is actually the same regulation, but instead of having one subsidy for multiple years, only one year is guaranteed and the follow-up is announced as a new subsidy. This subsidy is then lowered each subsequent year and from 2011 onwards the subsidy on small-scale PV was cancelled

altogether. Therefore the subsidy announcements are listed as negative events. Also, Negro (2007) showed that

subsidies only exert positive influence on the innovation system if they are guaranteed for several years, providing a stable investment climate. Also the subsidy is lowered each subsequent year and from 2011

onwards the subsidy on small-scale PV was cancelled altogether. The last event is an announcement by the

government of a tax exemption for solar PV in the so called ‘spring agreement’.

Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Function 5 Fulfillment

Graph 5 Fulfillment of function 5 'Market formation' throughout the IP

Function six is resource mobilization. Since the market formation in function five is primarily done by granting subsidies (financial resources), these functions largely coincide. The same argument applies that the gradual lowering of the subsidy is listed as negative function fulfillment. In 2009 however, there is also a bankruptcy of Econcern is listed. Econcern was the largest investor in renewables in Europe, which the media reports to be a limiting financial factor. The weak fulfillment of function six lead to no compensation for the weak fulfillment of function five. The combination of these two function not being fulfilled consistently may be a limiting factor for the TIS just like it was for biomass studied by Negro (2009).

Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Function 6 Fulfillment

Graph 6 Fulfillment of function 6 'Resource mobilization' throughout the IP

Function seven is creation of legitimacy. This function is fulfilled consistently throughout the IP. Also no negative lobby action were reported by the media, causing no negative fulfillment. The events are mainly collective actions in order to facilitate, promote and diffuse solar PV over lots of households at once. The wholesale of modules caused the price to be somewhat lower, but far more important is the lobbying for new solar PV customers. Therefore these actions are creation of legitimacy more than anything.

Q1 '09Q2 '09Q3 '09Q4 '09Q1 '10Q2 '10Q3 '10Q4 '10Q1 '11Q2 '11Q3 '11Q4 '11Q1 '12Q2 '12Q3 '12Q4 '12 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Function 7 Fulfillment

Graph 7 Fulfillment of function 7 'Creation of Legitimacy' throughout the IP 4. Narrative

The state of the TIS in 2009

Based on Negro et al. (2009) the core of the innovation system in the beginning of the IP is formed by three solar PV companies, some research institutes and lots of installer companies. The three PV companies are: Solland Solar, Scheuten Solar and Advanced Photovoltaic Applications (APA). Solland Solar is located at ‘Avantis’ an industrial park at the border with Germany. Solland Solar is an important player in the Netherlands since it was specifically founded to avoid ‘valuable brain drain’ (Negro et al., 2009, p.23). Its location at Avantis also plays an important role. Due to the location of the park, projects can benefit from subsidies of both Germany and the Netherlands. Also the location attracts more collaborations in solar PV (networks). Scheuten Solar is also located (partly) in Avantis. The company APA focuses on a new spray deposition technique, which will be cheaper than the conventional techniques and has great potential. (Negro et al., 2009). The main research institutes and collaborations are the Dutch universities, Energy Research Centre Netherlands (ECN), AMOLF, Ecofys and FESTpv. FESTpv is a research institute that is also located on Avantis by the European PV industry (Solland Solar, TSM, Scheuten Solar, Econcern, Rena, Applied Materials Schwitzerland, Ersol wafers, Pillar and Vesuvius). The primary policy goal is the 202020 goal, of which an intermediate stage is 10% renewable energy in 2010. (Negro et al., 2009).

From 2009 onwards

2009 Started with an announcement of a new subsidy for solar PV, the SDE (F5, F6). Two companies started in this year, Levitech and Solar Modules Netherlands. Solar Modules brings the number of manufacturing companies at four and Levitech focuses on efficiency increasing machinery. This is a strong fulfillment of upstream entrepreneurial activity (F1). After a few years of very little added capacity, 2009 ended with a total of 11 MW added capacity[ CITATION Cen14 \l 1043 ]. The latter went along with the necessary increase in

installation capacity and therefore entrepreneurial activity downstream (F1).

This is the beginning of a rapid increase in installed PV capacity during the IP. Like Negro (2007) showed for biomass and Negro et al. (2009) showed for solar PV, market formation during this development market formation was an important determinant of the TIS growth. In this strong market formation the Chinese PV plays an important role. On the one hand the market formation is fulfilled by the subsidy, granting 0.297€/kWh for projects <15Kwp and 0.406€/kWh for projects >15Kwp. This coincides with 0.267€/kWp (0.297*0.93_{) and} 0.365€/kWp (0.406*0.93_{) respectively. On the other hand, the market formation is fulfilled by the European} reduction in price per watt peak. Which is 0.57€/Wp in 2009 and thus more significant [ CITATION PvX14 \l 1043 ]. This price reduction partly comes from efficiency increases, but as the EU Council showed prices reduced far more than efficiency gains, because of Chinese competition [CITATION Cou131 \p 97 \l 1043 ]. This leads to the conclusion that the over-subsidization on Chinese PV partly led to the strong market formation which strongly correlates with the increased PV installation activity.

2010-2011

2010 Started with an

announcement of a new subsidy for renewable energy, the

stimulation measure on renewable energy 2010 (SDE). This seems to be an effort in market creation, however in reaction to the prolonged price reductions in PV, the government actually decreased the remuneration from

SDE of 2009. Again, this price decrease was more through Chinese competition than it was due to efficiency increases [ CITATION Cou131 \l 1043 ]. Therefore the subsidy reduction is an indirect consequence of the over-subsidized PV. The subsidy went down from 0.297€/kWh to 0.26€/kWh for small scale and from 0.406€/kWh to 0.38€/kWh for large scale projects. (Rijksoverheid, 2012). Besides this, Negro et al. (2009) showed that subsidies that change constantly are particularly harmful for the industry due to insecurity for investors. For these reasons, the new announcement (instead of a plan for several years) is considered a negative contribution to market formation and resource mobilization (F5-, F6-).

Two companies started in this year: Line Solar in Rijswijk and Solaytec BV. Both companies specialize in efficiency enhancing technology. This is important to note, because enhancing existent production lines allows 3 Watt peak (Wp) is the capacity to provide 1kWh per year under ideal circumstances. For the Netherlands this needs to be corrected by a factor 0.9. This is taken as an average yield of Wh/Wp over the period 1991-2010 from Sideara [CITATION Sid13 \l 1043 ].

Graph 8 Price development of crystalline modules globally. Data points taken from PvXchange (2014). Here the consistent price decline in China can be seen and the EU prices that follow.

May -09 Au g-09 No v-09 Fe b-10 May -10 Au g-10 No v-10 Fe b-11 May -11 Au g-11 No v-11 Fe b-12 May -12 Au g-12 No v-12 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Global PV Module Price Development

EU China Japan

Time

€

/W

the companies to profit from the strongly growing world market in PV, specifically the annual market for solar more than doubled from 2009 to 2010 [CITATION Bay11 \p 9 \l 1043 ]. Possibly due to the lack of domestic market formation, there are no new manufacturer companies founded. This brings the total number of efficiency based companies at three and the number of manufacturing companies at four.

Even though the subsidies declined, the price decrease in PV attracted more investments throughout the year. The year ended with a total added capacity of 21MW, almost double of 2009 added capacity [ CITATION Cen14 \l 1043 ]. This with all the accompanied installation activity and thereby expertise build up, created fulfillment of downstream entrepreneurial activity (F1). So the price decreases through competition caused more entrepreneurial activity which compensated the lack of market formation of the government4_{. Suurs and} Hekkert (2009) showed that often in this stage of development, the market formation causing entrepreneurial activities can set off virtuous cycles of function fulfillment, when accompanied by an adjusting guidance of the search. This is labeled as the market motor since it is a recurring pattern through TIS research, triggered by market formation. (Suurs and Hekkert, 2009). Even though the Chinese PV functioned replaced the market formation here, the pattern could not take place, because the guidance of the search did not reflect more positive expectations. Moreover, in this year the intermittent goal for renewable energy was achieved and not replaced by a new one. Therefore, there was a lack of guidance of the search in this crucial stage (F4-). From the figures it is clear that indeed no significant increases in (the most important; F1, F5, F6) function fulfillment is created after 2010.

2011-2012 Start of system change

After even more price reductions in the PV market, the government decides that the PV technology can almost do without subsidy. The new subsidy is called the SDE+ and the government removed the small scale PV subsidy from this regulation all together. The large scale subsidy remains, but again the subsidy amount is lowered. Also in 2011 the structure of the TIS starts to change. Two manufacturing companies stopped production. One of them, APA, went bankrupt whereas Solland Solar stopped production and started focusing on R&D ‘awaiting for better times’ (later, Solland Solar was taken over by the Italian ‘Pufin’). Officials from both companies stated to the press that the companies went bankrupt because they could not compete with the Chinese competition. A clear influence by the Chinese modules on entrepreneurial activities (F1-). In the same year a new company, Solar Excel, starts in the province of Limburg (F1). This company also focuses on efficiency enhancing

technology, thereby pushing forth the trend started in 2010. Because by now, there are only two manufacturing companies and four efficiency based companies.

The year ended with again, a steep increase in installed capacity. Since again no strong guidance of the search or knowledge development was present, it seems the increase was again made possible by the price

reductions. So again the Chinese competition was partly responsible for the increase in downstream activity that went along with it (F1).

2012 Continuation of system change

The year begins with an even further reduction of subsidy in the SDE+ 2012. The trend of late 2011 also pushes through. Two more companies go bankrupt: Scheuten Solar and Solar Modules, thereby effectively removing all manufacturing activity from the Netherlands (F1-). Even though the media suggested it, no statements of officials were found stating that the bankruptcies were caused by Chinese competition. The price decreases in the sector were partly because of increased efficiency, technology improvements and benefits of

scale[ CITATION REN13 \l 1043 ]. The EU investigation however, showed that prices in the EU decreased further than cost reductions, thereby having a ‘devastating effect on union profitability’ [CITATION Cou131 \p 24 \l 1043 4 The subsidy went down from 0.267€/kWp and 0.365€/kWp to 0.234€/kWp (0.26*0.9) and 0.342€/kWp (0.38*0.9). A reduction of 0.033€/kWp and 0.023€/kWp for small scale and large scale projects respectively. This while module prices decreased 0.24€/kWp in the same year [ CITATION PvX14 \l 1043 ], therefore, more than compensating for the subsidy reduction.

]. This provides a strong argument that the bankruptcies of these manufacturers (and thereby all Dutch manufacturers) during the IP were indeed caused by the unfair competition (F1-). This report has to build upon the report of the EU, because only this investigation allowed for anonymous reporting by manufacturers in order to gain information on profitability.

A direct influence of the over-subsidization, is the company contraction by Solar Total in this year. This large wholesale and installation company bought a very large stock of modules to anticipate the growing demand of the past years. The subsidy policy in China in the meantime, caused a growing over capacity in the solar PV market [ CITATION Bay11 \l 1043 ]. The over capacity lead to drastic price reductions [ CITATION Cou131 \l 1043 ] that obligated Solar Total to amortize the largest part of its module stock and almost become insolvent. The company retracts all business activity from abroad (F1-). On the other hand, Levitech negotiates with Chinese manufacturers on selling them the efficiency enhancing technology. Here the Chinese capacity increase caused a company expansion (F1). Thereby completing the shift from manufacturing based industry in 2010 to an efficiency based industry in 2012. After the eroded profits in the manufacturing industry, this seems a logical step to preserve PV knowledge in a changing market.

The government seems to react to the reduction in PV activity, because only in this year events were reported in guidance of the search. The government tries to preserve the Dutch PV sector as a knowledge based industry. Firstly, the innovation contract on energy is released in which solar energy is recognized as a top sector for the Dutch economy (F4). Later in 2012, the election programs were released, in which all eligible parties showed positive expectations in regard to the renewable energy goals (F4). The recognition as top sector brings about subsidies and lead to the foundation of the Silicon Competence Centre (SICC) to perform R&D (F3). Also another R&D network is founded, the Solar Energy Application Centre (SEAC). This R&D network is partly founded by government institutions (ECN, TNO) thereby bringing along subsidies and reducing private dependency in the increasingly competitive world market. Finally, a first fulfillment of market formation is brought about, when the government announces lower taxes for solar PV. Which, other than the ever lowering subsidies is an

improvement of market conditions (F5).

5. Conclusions

Throughout the IP the most consistent influence of the Chinese imported PV is replacement of the function market formation. Even though the price decreased partly because of efficiency increases, the Chinese over-subsidization caused over capacity, thereby accelerating the process. Apart from price decreases, the TIS analysis shows no other clear patterns which caused this capacity increases. Specifically the consistently low fulfillment of system functions showed no virtuous cycles, as described by Hekkert & Negro (2009), which might have explained a rapid increase in solar PV capacity as the Netherlands experienced during the IP. Concluding, the Chinese over-subsidization accelerated capacity build-up in the Netherlands. This went along with increased downstream entrepreneurial activity and several attempts of creating legitimacy by selling this more affordable PV to large groups.

Very interesting is the clear shift in system structure that coincides with the IP. The upstream manufacturing reached its high in the end of 2009 when, according to the European Council, China’s over-subsidization just started. Whereas in the end of the IP, all manufacturing companies made place for a total of four efficiency based companies. The transition is especially interesting since officials of multiple bankrupt manufacturing companies stated that they went bankrupt due to the intense Chinese competition. For the other companies, a strong argument can be made that these also suffered from the Chinese modules. However, the European council only proved the devastating effects on profits for the EU in general and therefore no definitive

conclusions can be made for the other companies. Logically, the growing world market in PV was only beneficial for the efficiency based companies. These could sell production line improvements to the emerging

manufacturers.

The government plays an important role during the IP, this because it can influence the most important functions in the acceleration phase: F1, F4, F5, F6. The over-subsidized PV replaced the need for market formation by the government and assured entrepreneurial activity. If with this, guidance of the search raised

expectations, it would be possible that a virtuous cycle was triggered that Suurs & Hekkert (2009) called the market motor. However, the government completely lacked guidance up until 2012 April 2012. Thus even though the over-subsidized PV had some positive effects, the lack of guidance of the search is seen as a possibly missed chance to boost the PV innovation system by the government.

In 2012 the government seems to acknowledge that private upstream activity is too expensive in the Netherlands and takes action. It provides guidance, a new market incentive is created and a research collaboration is founded. In the same period two other subsidized entities (ECN, TNO) start a second R&D collaboration. These actions combine what is left of the diffused R&D structure. The subsidies shield the companies from the strong global competition in PV. In the beginning of the IP the R&D activity already wasn’t dependent on private profits and the newly founded efficiency based companies benefit from the intensified world market. Thus apart from the disappearance of manufacturers, the overall effect of the over-subsidized PV on the R&D structure seems limited. Concluding, the Chinese PV altered, but does not appear to have

decreased the state of the Dutch TIS in solar PV.

6. Discussion

This research set out to investigate the long term knowledge development in PV in the Netherlands by investigating R&D activity. This could be done by hypothesized costs and using trade theory of unfair competition on R&D. However, soon it was found that this would not provide any insights in the long term development of PV in the Netherlands. This because R&D in the Netherlands was primarily performed by specialized institutions, subsidized entities and universities. To analyze the impact in a more broad sense, a different approach was needed.

An innovation systems approach was chosen, because this also makes more sense in explaining inter country differences. The literature investigates how the TIS develops and tries to infer patterns across multiple studies. These typical interaction patterns and virtuous cycles can then be used to research and explain developments in other technological innovation systems. Special attention should be given to the fact that even though some of these relations are often observed, they provide no definitive causal relations. Therefore, this research often compares to those studies, but still tried to explain relations for this specific case.

No other research has been done on any of the specific relations that are discussed in this paper. This is probably due to the recent nature of the topic as the European report and thereby a formal definition of over-subsidization was only released in December 2013. Because of this, the writer argues that this mainly

correlative research is a valuable addition to current literature. It should function as an explorative research in order to more thoroughly investigate the specific relations in the future.

This brings the report to the final discussion points, namely some data availability issues. Firstly the Council of the EU (2013) investigated Chinese export numbers to the EU. However, no data was available that explicitly showed the origin of PV in the Netherlands. This problem could easily be circumvented, due to the strong price reduction the over-subsidized PV caused. Thus, it should be noted that especially due to geographic location, a large portion of modules in the Netherlands might be imported from Germany, even though the Chinese competition made this affordable. Note furthermore that by 2012 China accounted for 80% of global module market so this is not likely. Lastly, there is always the danger that the listed events are not the most important ones. This chance is minimized by examining three newspapers, but adding more newspapers also increases chance of relatively unimportant events to be reported. It is suggested that the most valuable addition would therefore be reviews by experts in the field to verify and supplement the event database. Improving the database might reveal more or clearer patterns.

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Appendix A

Appendix 1: The classification scheme as used for the process method (Negro, 2009; Negro et al., 2009; Hekkert et al., 2007)

Appendix B Dat e: Referen ce Description Categor y Func tions Source(s) apr-09 Rijksov erheid

SDE 2009 subsidy opened, 0.297€/kwh for projects <15Kwp, 0.406€/Kwh for projects >15Kwp (Budget of: 2,5 billion of which 88mln. for solar PV)

Subsidy F5 + F6 +

Ministry of Economic Affairs (2009) Year report 2009 SDE and

MEP. Retrieved from: http://www.rvo.nl/sites/default/fi les/bijlagen/Jaarbericht %202009%20SDE%20en %20MEP.pdf SenterNovem. (2009). Zon-PV 2009. Retrieved from: http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/docu menten-en-publicaties/brochures/2009/06/ 10/zon-pv-2009.html apr-09

FD Conference "the Solar Future" held in Rotterdam

Confere

nce F3 +

Het Financieele Dagblad. (22 apr 2009). Marktplaats-miljonair op

bres voor klimaat.

jun-09

FD Econcern declared bankrupt. Econcern was one of Europe largest investors in renewables. Resourc e Mobiliz ation F6

-Het Financieele Dagblad. (24 jul 2009). Value8 in Spaanse zonnecellen. Faillisementendossier. (2009). Faillisement Econcern NV. Retrieved from: http://www.faillissementsdossier. nl/nl/faillissement/95092/econce rn-nv.aspx jul-09

NRC Solland Sollar and Sunergy (Delta) announce plans to join with Scheuten solar. This should create vertical integration and lead to a renewable energy campus in the Netherlands.

Merge

Cont ext

NRC Handelsblad. (24 jul 2009). Zonne-Energie bedrijven gaan

samen.

aug-09

WEB "SunBird*" initiative initiated. *In Dutch "Zonvogel". Connects people that want solar PV but do not have a roof with those who have.

Promo tion

F7 +

Jeroen van Agt. (2009) De zonvogel maakt zone energie voor iedereen mogelijk. Retrieved

from:http://www.olino.org /articles/2009/08/26/de- zonvogel-maakt-zonne-energie-voor-iedereen-mogelijk sep-09

WEB Levitech founded, a spin-off of ASM international. Produces and researches atomic layer deposition machinery.

Market Entry

F1 +

Levitech. (2013). About Levitech. Retrieved from

:http://www.levitech.nl/ company/about-levitech/

nov-09

NRC Solar Modules Nederland BV founded. Production company in solar PV.

Market Entry F1 + NRC Handelsblad. (24 oct 2009). Fabriek zonnepanelen in Kerkrade. dec-09

CBS Total added capacity of 11 MW over 2009. This is listed as a positive entrepreneurial activity because it is significantly more than the year before and to account for all the downstream (installation) activity that goes with that.

Market Trend

F1 + CBS (2013). Renewable Energy; capacity, domestic production

and use. Retrieved from: http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/

publication/?

DM=SLNL&PA=71457NED&D1=3-5,12-13&D2=6&D3=13-22&HDR =T&STB=G1,G2&VW=T jan-10 Rijksov erheid

With the beginning of 2010 the intermittent goal of 10 percent renewable energy by 2010 is reached. However, no new intermittent goals are set up until 2020. This lack of short term goals is a clear absence of guidance.

Lack of guidanc e

F4

-Rijksoverheid. (2013). Energy Policy in the Netherlands.

Retrieved from: http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onde rwerpen/energie/energiebeleid-nederland mar -10 Rijksov erheid

SDE 2010 subsidy opened. 0.26€/kwh for projects <15Kwp, 0.38€/Kwh for projects > 15Kwp (budget of 69mln. for small PV) Subsidy F5 F6 -mar -10

Touw Municipality of Lochem starts with an initiative to supply all houses with solar PV for conventional energy prices

Promo

tion F7 +

Trouw. (30 mar 2010). Lochem heeft grootse plannen met zonne-energie; Zonne-energie.

Q1 201 0

WEB The High-Tech Company Line Solar is started in Rijswijk. It produces efficiency enhancing technology.

Market Entry

F1 +

Verandervan, J. (2013). Line Solar future of solar energy. Retrieved

from: http://www.verandervanenergie. nl/nieuws/linesolar_toekomst_vo or_zonne-energie jul-10

FD Solaytec BV founded, a spin off from research organization TNO. Produces atomic layer deposition machines.

Market Entry

F1 +

Het Financieele Dagblad. (7 sep 2010). Donkere toekomst dreigt voor solarsector door dichte

geldkraan.

nov-10

Trouw "We want sun*" initiative started by Urgenda. Collective wholesale of solar panels from China. Results in about 10MW *In Dutch: "Wij willen zon"

Promo tion

F7 +

Trouw. (22 nov 2010). Het loopt nog niet storm genoeg bij

Urgenda; groenstrook. Wij willen zon. (2013). Wie zijn

wij.Retrieved from:

http://www.wijwillenzon.nl/wie-zijn-wij.html

dec-10

CBS Total added capacity of 21 MW over 2010. This is listed as a positive entrepreneurial activity because it is significantly more than the year before and to account for all the downstream (installation) activity that goes with that.

Market Trend

F1 +

CBS (2013). Renewable Energy; capacity, domestic production

and use. Retrieved from: http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/ publication/? DM=SLNL&PA=71457NED&D1=3-5,12-13&D2=6&D3=13-22&HDR =T&STB=G1,G2&VW=T mar - 11 Rijksov erheid

SDE+ subsidy opened. Nothing for small-scale, 0.046€/kwh for projects> 15kwp. Budget of 35.5 mln. for solar PV.

Subsidy F5 F6

-Agentschap NL. (2013). Year report SDE+, SDE and MEP.

Retrieved from: http://www.rvo.nl/sites/default/fi les/Jaarbericht%202011%20SDE %2B%20SDE%20en%20MEP %20%5Bkleurenversie%5D.pdf mar -11

Trouw "Sun Fixed" (1MW) initiative and "Amsterdam schools" (0,55MW) initiatives started by Greenchoice. *In Dutch: "Zonvast" and "Amsterdamse scholen".

Promo tion

F7 +

Trouw. (29 mar 2011). Zonnepanelen op het dak zonder

ze zelf te kopen.

Greenchoice. (2013). Energieprojecten. Retrieved from:

/over-greenchoice/energieprojecten

feb-11

FD* SolarExcel opens a new factory in Limburg in that produces thin layer technology to improve PV efficiency.

Compa ny Start F1 +

Het Financieele Dagblad. (25 aug 2012). Export Kampioenen.

jun-11

Trouw Rotterdam Central Station incorporated 70.000 solar panels (350MWh) in its new design. Integrating solar PV in this representative building improves solar PV visibility.

Demon stration Project F1 +

Trouw. (21 juni 2011). Station Rotterdam CS krijgt groot

zonnedak.

oct-11

FD Solland Sollar stopped production. (later taken over by the Italian Pufin)

Compa ny Contrac tion

F1

-Het Financieele Dagblad. (12 jan 2012). Solland Solar verkoopt

productie zonnecellen.

nov-11

Trouw Solar Energy Wageningen foundation founded. To (legally, financially, socially) facilitate 15.000 new panels in the city of Wageningen.

Promo tion

F7 +

Trouw. (18 nov 2011). Daken gezocht voor zonnepanelen in

Wageningen. nov-11 Leeuwa rder Courant

Advanced Photovoltaic Applications BV went bankrupt. According to director Ben Meesters due to the over-subsidized PV from China.

Bankru ptcy

F1

-Leeuwarder Courant. (1 dec 2011). Productie zonnepanelen in

Nederland te duur. Faillisementendossier. (2011). Faillisement APA BV. Retrieved

from: http://www.faillissementsdossier. nl/nl/faillissement/143687/advan ced-photovoltaic-applications-bv.aspx dec-11

CBS Total added capacity of 58 MW over 2011. This is listed as a positive entrepreneurial activity because it is significantly more than the year before and to account for all the downstream (installation) activity that goes with that.

Market Trend

F1 +

CBS (2013). Renewable Energy; capacity, domestic production

and use. Retrieved from: http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/ publication/? DM=SLNL&PA=71457NED&D1=3-5,12-13&D2=6&D3=13-22&HDR =T&STB=G1,G2&VW=T mrt-12 Rijksov erheid

SDE + Subsidy opened. Nothing for small scale and 0.07 € / kwh for projects> 15kwp with a maximum of 1.7 billion for all renewables, 24mln for solar PV

Subsidy F5 F6

-Agentschap NL. (2012). Meet the SDE+ 2012. Retrieved from: http://www.rvo.nl/sites/default/fi

les/bijlagen/Maak%20kennis %20met%20de%20SDE

%202012.pdf Agentschap NL. (2013). Year

report SDE+, SDE and MEP. Retrieved from: http://www.rvo.nl/sites/default/fi les/Jaarbericht%202012%20SDE %2B%20kleurenversie_1.pdf mrt-12

NRC Solar Total, retracts from Spain and Italy and focuses on end-users, Chinese PV caused a retirement on PV stock.

Compa ny Contrac tion F1 -NRC Handelsblad. (26 mar 2012). 'Zonnestroom is niet te stoppen'; Zonnepaneleninstallateur Solar

Total verandert zijn strategie.

mrt-12

FD Levitech negotiates with Chinese Manufacturers about atomic layer deposition (ALD)

Compa ny expansi

F1 + Het Financieele Dagblad. (10 mar 2012). Leven na de shake-out in

on

mrt-12

WEB Solar Energy Application Centre (SEAC) founded, a R&D collaboration of ECN, TNO and Holland Solar.

Networ k Creatio n F2 + F3 +

SEAC. (2013). The Solar Energy Application Centre. Retrieved

from:http://www.seac.cc/

mrt-12

WEB Scheuten Solar, Scheuten solar systems, Scheuten R&D (April) declared bankrupt

Bankru ptcy

F1

-Faillisementendossier. (2012). Faillisement Solar Scheuten Nederland. Retrieved from: http://www.faillissementsdossier. nl/nl/faillissement/507386/solar-scheuten-nederland-bv.aspx apr-12 Rijksov erheid

Innovation contract energy released. Solar Energy is recognized as a top sector in the Dutch economy.

Positive expecta tion

F4 +

Rijksoverheid. (2013). Summary Innovation Contract Topsector

Energy. Retrieved from: http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onde rwerpen/ondernemersklimaat-en-innovatie /documenten-en-publicaties/ kamerstukken/2012/04/02/same nvatting-innovatiecontract-topsector-energie.html apr-12 De Volkskr ant

German manufacturers cannot compete with Chinese modules. Q-cells bankrupt (Earlier also Solarhybrid, Solar

Millennium en Solon)

Bankru

ptcy Cont

ext

Volkskrant. (5 apr 2012). Duitse fabrikanten van zonnepanelen

haken af. may

-12

WEB Solar Modules Nederland BV declared bankrupt

Bankru ptcy

F1

-Faillisementendossier. (2012). Faillisement Solar Modules Nederland. Retrieved from: http://www.faillissementsdossier.

nl/nl/faillissement/514695/solar-modules-nederland-bv.aspx may

-12

Trouw Conference 'the Solar Future' in Haarlem

Confere

nce F3 +

Trouw. (25 may 2012). Zonne-energie groeit dit jaar

sensationeel. may

-12

Trouw ‘The Dutch Energy Company*’ starts another collective solar PV program using Chinese PV and Dutch converters. *In Dutch: de Nederlandse Energie Maatschappij

Promo tion

F7 +

Trouw. (22 may 2012). Gratis zonnepanelen, als je ten minste

voor vijf jaar tekent.

may -12

Trouw Lower taxes announced for PV as of July Announ cement F5 +

Het Financieele Dagblad. (21 may 2012). Lenteakkoord verlamt

markt zonnepanelen.

jun-12

NRC Subsidy regulation PV 2012-2013. Budget of 22 mln for 2012 and 30 mln for 2013. Press anounces fluctuating subsidies cause consumers to wait

Subsidy F5

+/-NRC Handelsblad. (1 jun 2012). In de schaduw van Duitsland.

aug-12

Trouw Election programs of almost all eligible parties aim at achieving the 14% renewable energy by 2020. Positive expecta tion F4 + Trouw. (28 aug 2012). Meerderheid partijen wil groene

energie impuls geven.

sep-12

Rijksov erheid

Top consortium knowledge and

innovation (TKI) Solar Energy founded. A collaboration to bring entrepreneurs, knowledge institutes and organizations together. The government subsidizes any investment with an additional 25%

Networ k Creatio

n F3 +

Agentschap NL. (2013). Topconcortium Solar Energy.

Retrieved from:

http://tkisolarenergy.nl/media/17 47/Factsheet-TKI-Solar-Energy.pdf sep- TKI TKI Solar Energy in collaboration with Networ F2 + TKI Solar Energy. (2014). Silicon