The transition towards renewable energy sources in the Netherlands : the development of offshore wind policy

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The transition towards renewable energy

sources in the Netherlands

The development of offshore wind policy

Offshore wind – energy transition – the Netherlands – policy – renewable energy

Msc Thesis Political Science: International Relations Research Project: The Political Economy of Energy

Timo de Groot – 10217541 University of Amsterdam Supervisor: Dr. M.P. Amineh Second Reader: Dr. R.J. Pistorius Email: timo.degroot@student.uva.nl Amsterdam, June 24th 2016

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4.2 Conclusions ... 53 Chapter 5 Conclusions ... 55 Bibliography ... 59 Appendix ... 65 Interview 1 ... 65 Q-methodology of interview 1 ... 74 Interview 2 ... 78 Q methodologie of interview 2 ... 88 Interview 3 ... 91 Q methodologie of interview 3 ... 100 Interview 4 ... 101 Q methodologie of interview 4 ... 111 Interview 5 ... 115 Q methodologie of interview 5 ... 124

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Abstract

The transition from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources is a highly debated topic since many years. Now a days it is no longer the question “if” we should make the transition, but more the question of “how” we should establish it. This research focuses on the Dutch renewable energy making process and uses the Ecological Modernization theory as a constructive viewpoint towards this transition. This research provides an in-depth view on the development of offshore wind policy of the past fifteen years by using the features of the Advocacy Coalition Framework. Furthermore, the interaction between the public and the private sector and how the forming of coalitions influence the policy making process are described. Finally, interviews are held together with Q methodology to gain a better understanding of how different factors are perceived as influential in the development of renewable energy sources in the Netherlands. This research main conclusions are that the forming of coalitions in the private sector is a successful approach to influence energy policy and to create innovative structural change. That lobby from advocacy coalition groups and companies that only have shares in the fossil fuel sector do not seem to be directly influencing the policy making process of renewable energies, but lobby from advocacy groups and companies that are directly involved in renewable energies do. Furthermore, the influence of the private sector is experienced as lower than the influence of the public sector on the forming of renewable energy policies.

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Acknowledgments

I want to take a moment to thank some people who made this study possible. First I would like to thank dr. M.P. Amineh for guiding me through this long process. Mehdi, you were always willing to go the extra mile for your students to see them to complete their tasks. Although I had some difficulties at the beginning of this project, concerning your work method and my time issues, I’m glad that it worked out. My appreciation also goes out to my second reader dr. R.J. Pistorius.

Secondly, I would like to thank my fellow Msc student Stef Haartman with whom I have conducted the interviews for this research. Stef, thank you for your uplifting spirit and your critical evaluations. It was nice to have someone with whom I could discuss the matter in depth and I enjoyed the trips to The Hague with you.

Last but not least, I would like to thank the people who were happily willing to receive us to conduct the interviews. Your cooperation is deeply appreciated and of immense importance for the academic field.

Timo de Groot, June 24th 2016

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Maps of the European Union and the Netherlands

Figure 1. The European Union

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Figure 2. The Netherlands

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Figure 3. Overview of wind farms (in place and planned) at the coast of the Netherlands

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List of figures, tables and pictures

Figure 1: The European Union Figure 2: The Netherlands

Figure 3: Overview of winds farms (in place and plannend) at the coast of the Netherlands Figure 4: The Advocacy Coalition Framework flow diagram

Figure 5: The population in the world and its expected growth Figure 6: Gross inland energy consumption in 2013

Figure 7: Import dependency of the Netherlands and the European Union in 2013 Figure 8: Final energy consumption per m2 in residential sector, climate corrected Figure 9: The share of renewable energies in the Netherlands

Table 1: The Advocacy Coalition Framework Table 2: Q methodology

Picture 1: Q methodology result of interview 1 Picture 2: Q methodology result of interview 2 Picture 3: Q methodology result of interview 3 Picture 4: Q methodology result of interview 4 Picture 5: Q methodology result of interview 5

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List of abbreviations

ACF Advocacy Coalition Framework

Bsik Besluit subsidies investeringen kennisinfrastructuur CBS Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek

CDA Christen Democratische Appèl CU ChristenUnie

D66 Politieke Partij Democraten ‘66 EC European Commission

ECN Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland EM Ecological Modernization

EP European Parliament EU European Union

EUWA European Union Wind Association FLOW Far and Large Offshore Wind IEA International Energy Agency LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

LPF Politieke Vereniging “Lijst Pim Fortuyn” MEP Milieukwaliteit van de Elektriciteitsproductie NAM Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij

NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NMP4 Nationaal Milieubeleidsplan 4

NOGEPA Nederlandse Olie en Gas Exploratie en Product Associatie NWEA Nederlandse Wind Energie Associatie

OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OWEZ Offshore Windpark Egmond aan Zee

PvdA Partij van de Arbeid

R&D Research and Development

RWE Rheinisch-Westfälisches Elektrizitätswerk

SDE Stimuleringsregeling Duurzame Elektriciteitsproductie SER Sociaal-Economische Raad

STROOM STROomlijnen, Optimaliseren en Moderniseren TIS Technological Innovation System

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10 TU Delft Technische Universiteit Delft

VNO-NCW Verbond van Nederlandse Ondernemingen – Nederlands Christelijk Werkgeversbond

VNPI Vereniging Nederlandse Petroleum Industrie VVD Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie

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Chapter 1

Introduction

It is a well known fact that fossil fuels will be depleted at some point in time and that the world cannot rely on it indefinitely. On top of that are the signs of climate change threatening the world and the ongoing discussion on how to handle the increasing warming of the planet. One of the measures taken is the transition from fossil fuels towards the use of renewable energy sources. Pressure to increase the share of renewable energy on the market has come from the European Union and recently from the last United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015. As a member state of the European Union, the Netherlands is (to a certain extend) obligated to follow European Union policy on renewable energy and is expected to increase its use of renewable energy.

Renewable energy can come in different forms. The most popular ones at the moment are wind and solar energy. Since the Netherlands is but a small country it does not, unlike other European Union member states, have much room for huge solar and wind parks on land. It is therefore a logical step for the Netherlands to increase their wind energy by building offshore wind farms. The country set off with a great start with two offshore wind farms in 2007/2008, but stagnated in the development of more farms after that. While neighbouring countries, such as Germany and the United Kingdom, increased their share of renewable energy sources through offshore wind, the Netherlands lacked behind. All this combined raises the question: how did this happen?

The Netherlands is a liberal democratic country, with strong actors from the private sector, such as companies. It is a common and legal way for companies to systematically influence the policymaking on the political level, in other words: lobbying. It is also common for companies to cooperate in securing the shared interests in the forms of advocacy groups. The companies involved in the energy sector are well advocated by a number of advocacy groups. The production of gas in the Netherlands is for 75% (NAM, 2016) in hands of the Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM). The interests are being secured through advocacy by NOGEPA (Nederlandse Olie en Gas Exploratie en Product Associatie). Furthermore, the GasUnie can also be considered as a major player in the Dutch gas market for their investment in infrastructure. The petrol industry is in hands of nine companies,

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12 namely; BP, ESSO, Kuwait Petrolium, Shell, EFR, TOTAL, Gulf and Tamoil. These companies are advocated by VNPI (Vereniging Nederlandse Petroleum Industrie) on Dutch national level and by FuelsEurope on international level. NOGEPA and VNPI are examples of cooperation in the fossil fuel sector, but the renewable energy sector has advocacy groups as well. Specifically including the wind energy sector. NWEA (Nederlandse Wind Energie Associatie) is the industry association for wind energy in the Netherlands. Its premium members are Eneco, Enercon, NUON, Raedthuys and RWE. The NWEA is sponsored by Shell, Vestas and Delta. What is interesting is that Shell is part of VNPI, but also a sponsor of NWEA. Furthermore, the association is represented by EWEA (European Wind Energy Association) in Brussels. NWEA is also part of the Stichting Duurzame Energie Koepel, which is the overarching organisation advocating renewable energy in the Netherlands. NOGEPA and VNPI are advocacy groups for the fossil fuel sector. Traditionally, one can assume that the fossil fuel sector is trying to stabilise or increase policy support for fossil fuels. The lobby that could come from this sector can therefore be seen as an impediment towards the transition from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources. NWEA on the other hand, is an advocacy group for the wind energy sector. Here one can assume that the wind energy sector is trying to increase policy support for (offshore) wind energy. The lobby that could come from this sector can therefore be seen as an opportunity towards the transition from fossil fuels towards renewable energy sources. The mentioned advocacy groups are but one possible factor from the private sector who may play a role in the development of policy. It is interesting to see how these different parties from the private sector interact with the public sector.

1.1 Objectives

In my thesis, I will analyze the development of the energy policy towards offshore wind energy in the Netherlands. The focus will lay on the interaction of the public sector with the private sector in the Dutch energy sector on Dutch national policy towards offshore wind energy. Through this research, I try to give insight in the lack of progress that the Netherlands has made on increasing its renewable energy share through offshore wind energy. The time frame of this research will start from 2000. The reason behind this is that the first offshore wind farms in the Netherlands came in operation in 2007/2008. This of course did not happen overnight, so it is important to take the policy of the years towards those first

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13 steps into account. Up till now, there has only been one other offshore wind farm project that came into production.

1.2 Research question

The focus will lay on the Dutch renewable energy policy of the past fifteen years and the actors involved, especially the interaction between the public sector and the private sector. The interaction between the two sectors is visible in cooperation, dialogue or lobbying. The factors mentioned in the fourth sub-question consist of a selection of 32 companies, public institutions, NGO’s, environmental disasters and global events. These factors are part of the Q methodology and further explained in Chapter 4. The following main research question and sub-questions are stated:

To what extent is the interaction between the public sector and the private sector influencing the transition towards offshore wind energy in the Netherlands?

a. What is the current energy situation in the world, the EU and the Netherlands?

b. What is the energy policy on renewable energy sources, with focus on offshore wind energy, in the Netherlands from 2000 and on?

c. Where is cooperation, dialogue or lobbying visible between the public sector and the private sector in the making of Dutch energy policy from 2000 and on?

d. Which factors are experienced as influential in the transition towards offshore wind energy in the Netherlands?

1.3 Delineation of research

The research contains a historical analysis of the process on the development of energy policy towards offshore wind energy in the Netherlands from 2000 until now. The research will focus on the interaction between the public sector and the private sector in the Dutch policy making process. The Dutch public sector consists of political parties or state institutions such as the Ministry of Economic Affairs. The Dutch private sector consists of advocacy groups such as NWEA, companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and NGO’s such as Greenpeace. The thesis will also give an overview of the current energy situation on the global, regional and national level. Furthermore, five policy makers are asked what they experience as influential factors in the development of renewable energy in the Netherlands.

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14 1.4 Social relevance

As mentioned before, the international pressure to increase the share of renewable energy sources is increasing. The leaders of the European Union have set pressing targets for the year 2020, including the goal that 20% of all energy in the European Union must come from renewable energy sources (European Commission, 2009). The pressure is not only coming from outside the Netherlands, but also from the inside. More and more sounds are coming from green movement groups who encourage the national government to increase renewable energy sources and decrease the use of fossil fuels. The current production of gas in the province of Groningen is being decreased, because of the environmental effects and dangers of earthquakes for the inhabitants in that area. According to Netherlands Statistics (CBS) the Netherlands became a net natural gas importer in 2015 (during a period of several months) for the first time, after being a net exporter ever since the gas production in the Netherlands was started. The expectation is that this will become permanent in the future.

The choice for offshore wind energy is for the Netherlands a logical one. The country is small, densely populated and highly agricultural developed, which leaves not much room for wind farms on land. The Netherlands coast line with the North Sea is 451 km long and leaves ample room and opportunity to develop renewable energy sources in the sea. Other European Union members are trying to increase their share of renewable energy sources through offshore wind energy, with different success results. Germany and the United Kingdom are two neighbouring countries that have a successful increase of renewable energy sources through offshore wind energy, but the Netherlands reached stagnation for many years. Although the offshore wind energy recently got a boost in the Netherlands, politicians keep on setting optimistic goals. The National Energy Agreement (Nationaal Energieakkoord) of 2013 dictates that the national share of renewable energy sources has to be 14% by 2020 and 16% by 2023. Efforts to start building offshore wind farms have recently been blocked by the Dutch Senate (Eerste Kamer), because the energy bill called STROOM (STROomlijnen, Optimaliseren en Moderniseren) did not get a majority vote in favour. The bill STROOM contained the Unbundling Act that forces energy companies to split the electricity grid from the commercial part of the company, this specific part is presumed to be the reason that the implementation of STROOM failed. The prediction is that it will be unlikely that the Netherlands will reach their own 14% by 2020, and therefore also fail to comply to the 2020 goal set by the European Union.

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15 1.5 Literature review

Offshore wind energy has been an interesting subject for researchers since the seventies of the last century. In this literature review I try to present the more recent literature resources. With regard towards the question why we should use offshore wind energy, Esteban et al. (2011) provide a critical discussion based on the comparison of offshore wind energy with other renewable energy sources, such as onshore wind, marine hydrodynamics, hydraulic, solar, etc. and also bring fossil fuels to the table. Continuing on this comparison of renewable energy sources, Bilgili et al. (2011) researched the history, current status, investment cost, employment, industry and installation of offshore wind energy in Europe. These topics are investigated in detail and then compared to its onshore counterpart.

Green and Vasilakos (2011) present us an overview of the main issues associated with the economics of offshore wind. Offshore wind suffers from high installation and connection costs, which makes government support essential. In this article, they review various support policies used in Europe, concluding that tender-based feed-in tariff schemes, as used in Denmark, may be the best for providing adequate support while minimising developers’ rents. Green and Vasilakos state that it may prove economic to build an international offshore grid connecting wind farms belonging to different countries that are sited close to each other. Continuing on the idea of an international offshore grid, Williamson (2011) researched the possibility of such a ‘supergrid’ through conducting interviews with the innovating technological sector. Part of the conclusion is that there are major challenges in the form of policy between countries that will make it difficult to achieve such a project.

Kaldellis and Kapsali (2013) provide an overview of the activity noted in the field of offshore wind energy. The emphasis lays on the status and future trends of the technology that was employed by that time. The paper also examines the energy production and availability issues as well as economic considerations. The article gives insight in offshore wind power market. The writers state that, at the time of writing, the market is dominated by a few companies. On the demand side about ten companies or consortia account for all the offshore capacity presently in operation. Dong Energy (Denmark), Vattenfall (Sweden) and E.on (Germany) are the leading operators, all being giant European utilities. On the supply side, Siemens (formerly Bonus Energy A/S) and Vestas are by far the leading wind turbine manufacturers worldwide in terms of installed capacity. In Europe, their cumulative share reaches 90%.

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16 offshore wind energy in the Netherlands. It presents a qualitative review of the development of offshore wind power in the Netherlands from 1973 to 2013. The research identifies six periods of relative stability in the history of Dutch offshore wind and then analyzes the effects of various policies on the shielding, nurturing and empowering of offshore wind in these periods. This research provides insight in policy history which will, to some extent, be part of my thesis.

Furthermore, with regard to the offshore wind energy sector in the Netherlands, Kern et al. (2015) did a comparative research between the Netherlands and the United Kingdom on strategic niche management, a conceptual perspective that analyses protections and the resulting space for sustainable technologies. It explains the contrast between the boom in the United Kingdom and the stagnation in the Netherlands, by analysing niche empowerment dynamics. The analysis is focused on the actor networks and the narratives they use to enrol support for the deployment of the technology. Kern et al. conclude that the United Kingdom had presence of a proactive ‘system builder’ in the form of the Crown Estate, which played a central role in powerful public-private actor networks around offshore wind. The paper also concludes that their way of analysing fails to capture how different national institutional settings shape the possibilities for empowering work of technology advocates, because despite the highly international nature of the offshore wind sector, attempts by multi-national companies result in different outcomes in different countries. The latter conclusion is very interesting and an opening for my research.

When it comes to research of policy on offshore wind energy some has been done on the European level of perspective by Jacobsson and Karltorp (2012) and Wieczorek et al. (2012) and when it comes to research on the innovation system level of offshore wind energy, Luo et al. (2012) also looked at the European level. Furthermore, Jacobsson and Kaltorp (2013) researched the obstacles for the northern European Union innovation system for offshore wind energy, by using a analytical framework called Technological Innovation Systems (TIS), which is specifically developed for informing policy-makers about obstacles to the development/deployment of a particular technology (Carlsson et al. 2010). On this topic others have researched some obstacles like; high costs (Heptonstall et al. 2012), lack of grid infrastructure (Deutsche Bank, 2011), and lack of financial capital (De Jager et al. 2011). Latest research on TIS has been done by Wieczorek et al. (2015), who empirically explores if and how the spatial dimensions of Technological Innovation System matter using the case of offshore wind in North-Western Europe. In particular, it demonstrates the territory-specific institutional embeddedness and transnational linkages effects between four

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17 national offshore wind innovation systems (including the Netherlands). The paper discusses the consequences of taking these spatial dimensions into account in the analysis of the domestic TIS performance. It also states that TIS is best studied as a global system, not only as a national one. Data used about the Netherlands is extensively lend from earlier work done by Wieczorek et al. in 2013. This data provides insight for my own research.

1.6 Concepts and theory

In this chapter one can find a brief overview of the used theory and frameworks. The theory is used to explain the dynamics between politics and economics. The most suitable theories and frameworks for understanding the role and influence of the interaction between the public sector and the private sector from the energy sector, especially the wind energy sector on offshore wind policy in the Netherlands, will follow in the subsections.

1.6.1 Ecological Modernization theory

Ecological modernization is one of the strongest and most debated concept within the social sciences of environmental reform. Mol, Spaargaren and Sonnenfeld (2013: 15) define the concept as “the social scientific interpretation of environmental reform processes at multiple scales in the contemporary world”. The term ecological modernization was first introduced around 1980 by Martin Jänicke and Joseph Huber and later progressed into the social sciences around 1990 by Arthur Mol and Gert Spaargaren (Mol et al., 2013: 16).

Ecological Modernization (EM) theory today can help us understand technological innovations such as the development in renewable energy sources in general or subsectors such as offshore wind energy specifically. It differs from the traditional IR theories, such as realism or liberalism, in such a way that the analysis takes place at the domestic and subsystem level, rather than the relations between states. Furthermore, EM theory focuses on the interaction between the market (and its actors, such as companies) and the state. EM theory, however, does not lose sight of the globalized world and its features can be applied in a broader context, such as the European Union which has a highly integrated market. According to Mol et al. (2013) EM theory argues that the state and the market both have to innovate for environmental protection. In this process both parties are influencing each other. The first assumption is that this will result in innovative structural change. In this line of thought one cannot assume that the market or the industry is only disturbing the process to environmental protection. One has to see the opportunities that are possible with these actors

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18 and how they can contribute to the environment. Furthermore, if the market or industry are recognized as actors to improve the environment, this means that the state is not the only actor on environmental protection. The second assumption is that there is cooperation through networks with all the actors in society to overcome and innovate on environmental protection. (Mol et al., 2013). With the focus of EM theory on technical innovation and the interplay between the interactive role of the state and the market makes it an ideal theory to understand the transition towards renewable energy sources in the Netherlands.

1.6.2 Resource Scarcity Model

In general, the scarcity model is explaining behaviour or policy making by looking at supply and demand of resources (Amineh and Houweling, 2007). Our economy is build on supply and demand, if demand is high, supply is high. But what if the demand is high, but the supply is limited? Then you speak of scarcity of that resource or product. With regard to energy, resources like fossil fuels are limited in the world. One day resources like oil and gas will run out. This fact makes those resources scarce. Our society is at the moment heavily dependent on these fossil fuels. The demand is high, but the resources limited. Therefore, the demand for these resources will influence policy makers. Because at this moment, no fossil fuels means that we are not able to have a society such as we know today. The scarcity model consists of three factors named demand-induced, supply-induced and structural scarcity.

Demand-induced scarcity is about looking at the prospects of a growing energy need. With a growing economy can come growing energy needs. Think of increase in population, rising per capita income and the price of substitutes. If a country is planning to use more energy in the future it is creating its own scarcity by demanding more. Of course this does not always have to be this way, because advanced economies can grow and become more efficient in energy use. Which can result in a stable or even lower demand for energy. Supply-induced scarcity is caused by the diminishing of a fixed stock of fossil fuels. If the stock runs out it is simply impossible to supply the resource. Therefore, the scarcity is induced by the number of supply that is available. This is based on the total availability of the resource, but also on the countries reserves and the rate of production. It is impossible to tell what the current reserves are, because new resource fields may still be discovered in the world, but one can think of the size of known reserves at a particular time depends on the technology of extraction and the cost of extraction relative to the market price of the refined product.

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19 the supply of resources in the favour of the perpetrators of the action. It can also be the result of producer cartels, such as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), by the powerful state-led National Oil Companies of resource-rich countries. A major power that manages to gain control over conditions of access by third parties to the stock has the option of inducing scarcity for selected outsiders.

The scarcity model can help explain why policy to increase the development of renewable energy sources in the Netherlands is implemented. The model is useful to make clear what probably the future of fossil fuels will be. Renewable energy, however, is not based on a limited resource, but uses wind, solar and water power. The energy created is therefore not going to run out. The supply, however, can still be low when it is a cloudy day or when there is not much wind. Scarcity in this specific research topic is then more about the production rate, than about the stock reserves.

1.6.3 Advocacy Coalition Framework

The Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) is used as an approach to explore the influence of the domestic interest groups on the formation of Dutch policy. The framework will complement the idea of forming coalitions to influence the process of transition in renewable energy sources, as mentioned in the Ecological Modernization theory. According to Sabatier (1988) the framework has five basic assumptions. The first assumption is that one needs a timeframe of a decade or more to understand the impact of policy changes. The second assumption is that the focus has to be on policy subsystems. The third assumption is that in the analysis all actors in the subsystem are included. The fourth assumption is that scientific and technological information have an important role in policy processes. The fifth assumption is that public policies can be conceptualized as belief systems, which means that they include perceptions of value priorities and causal assumptions about how to realize them. Weible (2007) uses the ACF to perform a stakeholder analysis and provides an theoretical basis for describing political contexts. Adjustments to the original framework has been presented by Sabatier and Weible (2007) and in figure 1, one can see how the ACF is formed.

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Figure 4.

Source: Sabatier and Weible, 2007

In this diagram the policy making is primary taking place on the right side in the ‘policy subsytem’. Here, one can see that different coalitions act according to their policy beliefs and availability of resources to influence the decisions by governmental authorities. The resulting policy output and policy impacts will then influence the coalitions policy beliefs and resources. The flow diagram also shows what is influential outside of the ‘policy subsystem’. Factors as ‘external (system) events’, ‘relatively stable parameters’, ‘long-term coalition opportunity structures’ and ‘short-term constraints and resources of subsystem actors’ are influencing one another which can result in different policy outcomes. The ACF will help to identify the main coalition groups in offshore wind energy. It will map the actors from the public and the private sector, main events in the policy subsystem and how coalitions of actors are formed throughout the policy making process.

1.6.4 Connecting theory and framework

In this thesis the thought of Ecological Modernization theory, in which cooperation between state and non-state actors is the key to innovating environmental protection, will be central. The creation of governmental support for innovation in environmental protection is, for example, trough lobbying for policy support or a platform where dialogues are held with many actors together. The lobby groups can come from both the fossil fuel sector and

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21 renewable energy sources sector. The Advocacy Coalition Framework strengthens the believe of cooperation and the forming of coalitions. The framework helps to map the different state and non-state actors and main events in the offshore wind policy and policy implementation of the past fifteen years and how coalitions of actors are formed throughout the policy making process. The question why a country such as the Netherlands should undergo the transition towards renewable energies is answered by the Resource Scarcity Model. This model complements the Ecological Modernization theory and the Advocacy Coalition Framework by providing an incentive to move away from fossil fuels. Especially the demand-induced scarcity feature of the model provides insight on impediments that can occur on the domestic level.

1.7 Brief argumentation and hypotheses

The Netherlands is a capitalistic-liberal country and holds high regard for the market, but it also feels the urge to change the way that energy sources are used. This results into the following hypothesis: Interaction between the state and the market in the policy making

process of renewable energy sources in the Netherlands will result in innovative structural change.

With help of the Advocacy Coalition Framework an in-depth view can be given on the policy towards offshore wind energy in the Netherlands of the past fifteen years. The expectation that the reason of stagnation in the development of offshore wind is because impediments exist in the interaction between the public and the private sector in the offshore wind subsector. Which results into the following hypothesis: The Netherlands has fallen

behind in offshore wind energy deployment due to the influence of non-state actors on national renewable energy policy.

1.8 Research method

Quantitative data will be gathered through statistical from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), which is responsible for collecting and processing data in order to publish statistics to be used in practice, by policymakers and for scientific research. In addition to its responsibility for (official) national statistics, Statistics Netherlands also has the task of producing European (community) statistics. Statistics Netherlands is an autonomous agency, although financed by the Dutch government, one can expect objective data. The Q methodology will provide some statistical data as well. Furthermore, data will be gathered from the International Energy

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22 Agency (IEA). The European Union also gives regularly statistical updates on the energy situation in the European Union in general, but also on member states individually. The companies under research also communicate yearbooks with data about production rates and investment projects. All is useful for this research.

Qualitative data, with regard to the Dutch national policy, will be gathered through official policy releases and all the information is available through the official website. Standpoints of political parties and ruling coalition’s are included. The same is the case for European Union policy, which is released in official statements and free to access. Domestic interest groups and their networks are identified through meetings that take place, and statements that are made. Most of it is available on official websites, the media or in former research articles. Furthermore, Q methodology is used, together with semi-structured interviews, to gain insight in the process of creating energy policy in the Netherlands. It finds its origin in 1930s where it was first used by the psychologist William Stephenson. The method has therefore mostly been used in the field of psychology (Stephenson, 1953), but it is used in the field of political science as well (Brown, 1980). Q methodology is an interview method to discover patterns within individuals, rather than patterns in individual characteristics, such as age or gender. This method studies people’s subjectivity, because the participants are asked to share which factors they experience as influential concerning a certain subject. The factors has to be placed on a board with piles and each pile on the board stands for a certain value. The number of factors is limited to perform an analysis on the data. The number of places in each pile are also limited. This way, the participant is forced to choose carefully where it positions the factor on the board. After the Q methodology an interview is conducted to allow the participant to elaborate on his or her choices (Brown, 1993). The researcher can look for patterns by adding up the scores and with the elaboration of their participants. Five interviews with Dutch policy makers were held and transcriptions of these interviews can be found in the appendix of this thesis.

1.9 The structure of the thesis

The goal in chapter 2 is to answer the first sub-question ‘What is the current energy situation

in the world, the EU and the Netherlands?’ and to give an overview of the current energy

situation on a global, regional and national level. The current situation will be linked with the Resource Scarcity Model to explore the impediments that exist in the current situation. The idea is to give the reader an explanation of the incentive why the Netherlands should move to

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23 renewable energy sources.

The goal in chapter 3 is to answer the second sub-question ‘What is the energy policy

on renewable energy sources, with focus on offshore wind energy, in the Netherlands from 2000 and on?’ and the third sub-question ‘Where is cooperation, dialogue or lobbying visible between the public sector and the private sector in the making of Dutch energy policy from 2000 and on?’. Here an overview of the policy towards offshore wind in the Netherlands is

presented. Through the Advocacy Coalition Framework it will become clear who are involved in this subsector and to what extent.

The goal in chapter 4 is to answer the fourth sub-question ‘Which factors are

experienced as influential in the transition towards offshore wind energy in the Netherlands?’

and to give an analysis of the data provided by participants about the influence of different factors on the development of renewable energy sources in the Netherlands. The Q methodology results and discussions are presented here.

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Chapter 2

The current energy situation in the Netherlands

In this chapter the Resource Scarcity Model and its features will be applied on the Netherlands and in the context of the European Union. It will provide an answer to sub-question a) ‘What is the current energy situation in the world, the EU and the Netherlands?’. The Netherlands has its own gas reserves and is self provided in energy for many years. Threats towards energy security will mainly come from domestic grounds if production would stop or if the demand would grow beyond the produced amount of energy. Therefore, the focus will lay on the feature of demand-induced scarcity, because this will provide insight in the impediments that could come from the domestic level. The other features, supply-induced and structural scarcity, are less important, but will be briefly addressed. The challenges that the current energy situation brings will be explored through the Resource Scarcity Model and will give us an explanation for the transition towards renewable energy sources.

The chapter continues with the current energy situation in the Netherlands in the context of the European Union. The energy consumption, production and dependency of the Netherlands are analysed. Furthermore, to understand the position of the Netherlands and the European Union, one must also analyse the global trend of the energy consumption at the global level. The last part consists of a look towards the future and describes the trend of electricity in the Netherlands and how the transition towards renewable energy sources can be established with help of the Ecological Modernization theory.

2.1 The Resource Scarcity Model applied

To understand the possible impediments of the current energy situation in the Netherlands and the current global trends, it is useful to apply the Resource Scarcity Model. This model can help us to analyse the impediments and create a clear framework. The Resource Scarcity Model consists of three forces: demand-induces scarcity, supply-induced scarcity and structural scarcity (Amineh & Houweling, 2007).

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2.1.1 Demand-induced scarcity

As mentioned before the global energy demand is rising and, although the Netherlands contribution to this demand will be relatively small, the prediction is that worldwide the energy need will increase with one-third between 2030 and 2040 (IEA World Energy Outlook, 2015). This is mainly caused by newly industrialized countries, such as the People’s Republic of China, India and Brazil. Due to the rapid development of the industrial sector and growth of the economy, the demand for energy increased with it. Furthermore, the increased demand can be explained by population growth, rising per capita income and technological changes (Amineh & Houweling, 2007). These three factors will be further explored.

Population growth is the first factor that could contribute to a higher energy demand. The assumption here is very simple. If there are more people while the share of the available resources stay the same, then more people will claim the same amount of resources. The recent prediction by the United Nations is that the number of people will grow from 7.3 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050 (Economist, 2015). More than half of this growth is expected to come from Africa, while in Europe the population is estimated to shrink, but immigration could of course prevent this from happening. None the less will the increase of population have a high impact on the energy demand in the future and it will create a greater chance on resource scarcity in the future (see figure 5).

The rise of per capita income is the second factor that could contribute to a higher energy demand. The assumption here is again very simple. If more people gain a higher income, they gain more purchasing power. With this purchasing power they will demand more goods and services to which the economy is expected to react by fulfilling these demands. This reaction in turn would ask for more resources to produce the goods and services. Shortly stated: when the wealth of people grow, so will the demand for resources. Members from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) show a per capita income increase from 36,240.2 dollar in 2011 to 38,800.9 in 2014 (The World Bank, 2015). In the Netherlands, as a OECD member, we see an increase from 46,388.3 dollar in 2011 to 47,662.5 dollar in 2014 (ibid.). We can expect a steady grow of per capita income worldwide for the time being and therefore we can expect a greater demand for energy.

Technological change is the third factor that could contribute to the increasing demand for energy resources. Since the industrial revolutions started from the 1850s and on, the technological development became more and more tied with the availability of energy

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26 resources, and mainly fossil fuels. First the demand of oil and coal increased drastically, but now we see a transition towards gas and renewable energy sources. As technology will continue to develop, the demand for energy sources will increase. Since the availability for fossil fuels is limited, the role of renewable energy sources will be a lot bigger in the future.

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27

Figure 5. The population in the world and its expected growth

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2.1.2 Supply-induced scarcity

The assumption is that the above mentioned factors will contribute to an inevitable increase demand for energy and this will also affect the Netherlands. The impact from supply-induced scarcity on the Netherlands can be directly and/or indirectly, and the interaction with the energy supply is one that is constantly moving. Problems with energy supply can be caused by pricing. At the moment the oil prices are very low and it seems very unpredictable when they will rise again, but one can assume that when oil would become very scarce the price will inevitably go up. Furthermore, the production of oil is concentrated in the Middle East. Which is an area infested with wars and instability, which could cause problems of the supply of energy.

The Netherlands needs to invest in renewable energy sources if it wants to move away from uncertainties like the supply routes that come with fossil fuels. The country is lucky with a big gas reserve in the province of Groningen, but because of increasing public demand of lowering the gas production in that region, the Netherlands is forced to come up with other solutions to keep the energy supply going.

2.1.3 Structural scarcity

Structural scarcity is the last condition that could lead to energy scarcity. Structural scarcity is deliberately created supply-induced scarcity by actions of powerful states or non-state actors, such as companies (Amineh & Houweling, 2007). In the case of the Netherlands, as for many European countries, the Russian Federation could pose a problem with regard to the supply of gas. As mentioned before, the Netherlands imports 15.9% gas of its total energy imports from Russia. The Netherlands could fill that gap with imports from elsewhere and the common civilian would not be without heat all of the sudden, but it could have an effect on pricing. The Russian Federation has shown the capabilities to do so in the past against Ukraine, therefore this is a force to be reckoned with.

2.2 The global trend of energy consumption

While the transition towards renewable energy sources is gradually continued, the use of oil still holds the world in its grasp. According to data from the International Energy Agency (Oil Energy Atlas, 2015), oil still holds the largest share in total primary energy supply with 31% in 2013. In the transport sector, oil represents even more then 92% of the energy consumption

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29 (ibid.). The major producers of crude oil are found at different places in the world. The Middle East is one of the biggest regions in producing crude oil, with Saudi Arabia leading the world. The next biggest countries are the Russian Federation, the United States, the People’s Republic of China, Canada and the Islamic Republic of Iran. All these countries together hold more than half the global oil production (ibid.). But oil is largely traded through crude oil or petroleum products and in terms of net trade the largest exporters are Saudi Arabia, the Russian Federation, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The United States, the People’s Republic of China, Japan, India and the Russian Federation are the largest oil consumers, though the United States is leading by far (ibid.). However, the expectation is that we will see a decrease in oil consumption by the United States as well as the European Union from 2013 to 2040 (IEA World Energy Outlook, 2015).

Coal is sometimes referred to as ‘the energy of the past’, but with its share of global energy supply of 29%, it is right behind oil (IEA Coal Energy atlas, 2015). According to data from IEA (ibid.), the production of coal in 2013 was 75% larger than it was in 2000. The share of coal in terms of electricity production is even higher than oil, around 41% (ibid.). Coal is still playing a big role in power generation, especially in countries such as the People’s Republic of China and India, who use respectively 52% and 65% of their coal for power generation (ibid.). If the current trend continues, the share of coal in terms of electricity production will drop to 30% by 2040 (IEA World Energy Outlook, 2015). When looking at this data one can assume that the role of coal as an energy source is by far not over.

If we continue to follow the current global energy trend then the world energy demand will keep on growing in all World Energy Outlook scenarios from the International Energy Agency, but how fast this growth will be is under influence of government policy. The same tends to be for the amount of green house gasses emitted into the atmosphere in which government policy will dictate the pace. The expectation in the central scenario (New Policies Scenario) is that the energy demand will grow with nearly one-third between 2030 and 2040 (ibid.). Furthermore, we expect to see a decline in the use of coal and oil, but the world’s need for electricity demand will grow to 70% in 2040 (ibid.). Here renewable energy sources will take the role of electricity source and will take account for half of the demand growth by 2040 (ibid.). Renewable energy sources will be responsible for 50% of the total electricity production in the European Union in 2040, but before this transformation can take place we also will see an increase in gas consumption to breach the gap between the decrease of coal and oil and increase of renewable energy sources. The global trend shows that gas will have a

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30 share of 37% of total investment in the energy sector and natural gas imports in the European Union will grow by 30% from 2015 to 2040 (ibid.).

2.3 Country facts of the Netherlands

With regard to the global energy trend in electricity demand, the Netherlands is following this trend. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that the total electricity production was 2.2% higher in 2014 and 7.6% higher in 2015 (IEA monthly electricity statistics, 2015).

The Netherlands has a different energy mix than the average member of the European Union. The difference can be found in the higher share of gases and petroleum and products and the lower share of solid fuels, nuclear energy and renewable energy sources (See figure 6).

Figure 6. Gross inland energy consumption in 2013

Source: EUR-Lex, 2015

Figure 7. Import dependency of the Netherlands and the European Union in 2013

Top non-EU gas suppliers in 2013 (% in total imports)

Netherlands European Union

country [%] country [%] Norway 59.8 Russia 39.0 Russia 15.9 Norway 29.5 Algeria 9.7 Qatar 6.7 38% _26% 97% 95% -59% -87% 52% 53% 82% 87% 57% 65% 2005 2013 2005 2013 2005 2013

All fuels Petroleum and

products

Natural gas

NL EU28

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31 The Netherlands is exporting gas and therefore it has a relative low import dependency on total fossil fuels. But the gas winning in the province of Groningen is causing earthquakes and concerns towards the current gas production policy. The expectation is that the Netherlands will have to import more gas in the future. As shown in figure 7, the biggest gas suppliers for the Netherlands are Norway (59.8%) and Russia (15.9%).

With regard to gas, the Netherlands is trying to diversify its supply through LNG and through different countries of origin, by using a strategy to become Europe’s ‘gas roundabout’. Within the country the gas exploitation is concentrated on the gas field in Groningen by only one producer called the Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij, in which Shell and ExxonMobil both hold 50% of the shares (NAM, 2016). The total electricity prices in the Netherlands are close to the European Union’s average and gas prices are below average. Although, when one looks specifically to households, electricity prices are below European Union’s average and household gas prices are above average (EUROSTAT, 2015). But, as can be seen in figure 8, the household energy consumption per square meter is lower than European Union’s average, due to improved housing insulation and increased roll-out of energy efficient household appliances (EUR-Lex, 2015).

Figure 8. Final energy consumption per m2 in residential sector, climate corrected

2.4 The challenges for the future

The expectation is that the Netherlands will become a net exporter of electricity after 2020. The country can do so through a high interconnectivity level with other countries. The current level of interconnection for electricity is 17% and that is far above the target set by the European Union of 10% in 2020 and 15% in 2030 (European Commission, 2015). And new

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32 projects are planned, such as a connection with Denmark, which could also connect offshore wind farms in the future. On top of that are innovative plans to connect all the countries around the North Sea to one offshore grid (NRC, June 11th 2016).

Figure 9. The share of renewable energies in the Netherlands

The Netherlands wants to increase its share of renewable energy sources by 2020 with a total of 14% and 16% in 2023 (Rijksoverheid, 2016). In 2013 the renewable energy share was only at 4.5% and shows little progress since 2011 (see figure 9). It is therefore very likely that the 2020 target will be missed. The evaluation of these targets is expected later this year and this could result in an adjustment to a lower figure. A big potential for an increase in renewable energy for the Netherlands is offshore wind energy. The country is densely populated and has limited space on land, but the country has a very long coastline and this offers opportunities to increase the production of wind energy on sea. So far, the Netherlands has only two operating offshore wind energy farms dating from 2007/2008 and one dating from 2015.

According to the Ecological Modernization theory the solution for the innovative structural change in environmental protection, and thus the transition towards renewable energies, lies with two parties: the market and the state (Mol et al., 2013). Both parties play a significant role in creating a sustainable environment for renewable energy sources. These two parties should not be seen as two autonomous entities that move individually and separately from each other, but as highly integrated and interacted partners. One must therefore look for opportunities that both parties can create through cooperation, instead of placing one above the other. Changes made in governmental policy effects the market and market interests effects governmental policies in subsidising choices or through lobbying. In

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33 the next chapter the interaction through cooperation, dialogue and lobby between the public and the private sector of the past fifteen years will be further explored through the Advocacy Coalition Framework.

2.5 Conclusions

In sum, the Netherlands has been a gas exporter for many years, because one of the biggest gas reserves of Europe lies beneath the province of Groningen. But because of the danger of earthquakes in the region the country is scaling down the gas production. This will result in a switch from gas exporter to gas importer as the demand for electricity keeps on growing. The growth in electricity consumption is a global trend. The Netherlands is, like any other country, confronted with the greater demand in energy and the impediments that resource scarcity may create. The growth in population, the increase of per capita income and the technological changes are the main factors that lead to a demand-induced scarcity. The demand-induced scarcity feature of the Resource Scarcity Model is the most threatening feature for the Netherlands. Furthermore, now that the Netherlands is expected to become a gas importer it could become much more vulnerable to external events that interrupt the energy supply. The Middle East is an instable region that could cause interruption in the energy supply and the low pricing of oil leaves only insecure speculation for the future. Which is a supply-induces scarcity feature for the Netherlands. With regard to structural scarcity holds the Russian Federation a strong position in the supply of gas to the European Union and this causes energy insecurity for the Netherlands. Although the Russian Federation is a long lasting trade partner of the Netherlands, it has shown that it could cut off gas supply from other countries before.

When considering these current factors it is understandable that the Netherlands wants to undergo the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. Though this transition is posing impediments too as it seems that the country is unable to reach their own 2020 goals. Since the country is densely populated and highly agricultural developed makes generating wind energy on land difficult. The only way to drastically increase its share of renewable energies is through huge offshore wind energy projects or else it is certain that the 2020 goal will not be reached. The Ecological Modernisation theory beliefs that it is possible to undergo such a transition through cooperation between the market and the state. Through dialogue and cooperation the possibility arises to innovate in environmental protection. This can create a structural change in energy usage which is exactly what the Netherlands is trying

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34 to do with its transition towards renewable energies. The next chapter will provide an overview of how this cooperation and dialogue has developed in the pas fifteen years.

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35

Chapter 3

The development of offshore wind energy in the

Netherlands

In chapter 2 one can see why the Netherlands should undergo the transition towards renewable energy sources through the Resource Scarcity Model and how it can accomplish that transition through the Ecological Modernization theory. Chapter 3 will now continue with an answer to sub-question b) ‘What is the energy policy on renewable energy sources, with

focus on offshore wind energy, in the Netherlands from 2000 and on?’ and sub-question c)

‘Where is cooperation, dialogue or lobbying visible between the public sector and the private

sector in the making of Dutch energy policy from 2000 and on?’.

This chapter will analyse and describe the development of offshore wind energy in the Netherlands and an analysis of the interaction between the public and the private sector in offshore wind policy of the past fifteen years is presented. This timeframe is chosen, because approximately ten years ago the first offshore wind farms in the Netherlands went into production. By starting five years before that one can see what policy was implemented that caused the realisation of those first offshore wind farms. The Dutch policy on the subsector offshore wind energy is not a stationary one. Different policies have been implemented throughout the years and these will be discussed in several time periods. The involved actors, from the public and the private sector, will be mapped by using the Advocacy Coalition Framework. While using the Advocacy Coalition Framework one has to keep five basic assumptions in mind: 1) one needs a timeframe of a decade or more to understand the impact of policy changes, 2) the focus has to be on policy subsystems, 3) in the analysis all actors in the subsystem are included, 4) scientific and technological information have an important role in policy processes, 5) public policies can be conceptualized as belief systems, which means that they include perceptions of value priorities and causal assumptions about how to realize them (Sabatier, 1988). The main goal with the Advocacy Coalition Framework is to identify the involved actors in the policy making process. Central to the progress on offshore wind energy is the formation of coalitions that try to influence the policy making process. The analysis will concentrate on the policies that where implemented in different time periods.

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36 This will create a clear overview of the implemented policy and the different actors from different sectors that were involved.

3.1 Offshore wind energy policy and implementation

In this research the focus is the subsector offshore wind energy, but offshore wind energy is only one renewable energy source among others. Many policies are therefore created with a broader scope on renewable energy sources in general and sometimes offshore wind energy can be seen as an extension from that broader policy. The focus in this analysis will be on the main actors that are directly involved in the subsector. These actors come from the public and the private sector. Both are involved in this analysis, but the main idea is to create an overview of who, how and when formed coalitions to try and influence the outcome of the policy making process. Political parties, politicians and ministries are examples of actors in the public sector. They can be seen as a reflection of interests in society and to show the interaction between the public and the private sector. In table 1 the actors indicated with a + are in favour of development of offshore wind energy in that time period. Actors indicated with a – are against and +/- are neutral. The different time tables are discussed after to elaborate on the actors contributions in the policy making process.

Table 1. The Advocacy Coalition Framework

Time period Public sector actors

Economic actors Environmental actors Opposition groups 2000 – 2002 + Ministry of Economic Affairs (experimenting + stimulating) + Developers + NoordzeeWind +/- Anti-nuclear movement + Greenpeace - Ministry of Economic Affairs (licensing) - CDA/VVD/LPF - Local resistance to wind turbines 2003 – 2004 + Ministry of Economic Affairs +/- Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management + NoordzeeWind + We@Sea + Large developers +/- Anti-nuclear movement + Greenpeace + We@Sea - CDA/VVD/LPF - Small developers - Council of State - Local resistance to wind turbines

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37 + D66 (Brinkhorst) + PvdA (Samson) 2005 – 2006 + Ministry of Economic Affairs (licencing) +/- Department of Public Works +/- Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management + We@Sea + NWEA +/- Anti-nuclear movement + We@Sea - Environmental organizations - Ministry of Economic Affairs (subsidising) - Local resistance to wind turbines 2007 – 2009 + CDA/CU + PvdA (Samson) + Ministry of Economic Affairs (van der Hoeven) +/- Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management + NWEA + FLOW + Developers +/- Anti-nuclear movement +/- Environmental organizations - Ministry of Economic Affairs (Verhagen) - VVD (Rutte) - Local resistance to wind turbines 2010 – 2013 + Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation + VVD (Kamp) + PvdA (Samson) + Private sector + NWEA + EWEA + FLOW +/- Anti-nuclear movement +/- Environmental organizations - Local resistance to wind turbines 2013 – 2015 + Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation + VVD/PvdA + Private sector + NWEA +/- Anti-nuclear movement +/- Environmental organizations - Local resistance to wind turbines

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38 3.2 Time periods

The following section will briefly discuss the different time periods that are indicated in the Advocacy Coalition Framework. The focus will be on the description of the implemented policies in those time periods and the actors from different sectors as described in the previous table. Offshore wind energy was in the Netherlands a topic of discussion since the seventies (Verhees et al, 2015: p. 818 - 820), but this was mainly focused on research on the viability of offshore wind energy and the impact on the environment. Since the accident of the nuclear plant in Chernobyl nuclear power was for a long time absent on the Dutch policy agenda. Later around 2010 it was back on the agenda, but the nuclear disaster of Fukushima in 2011 removed it (see interview 4). Since the year 2000 we see more commitment towards offshore wind energy and the first private developers file in requests to construct offshore wind farms. Before that time we did see attempts to create a wind energy industry. According to interview 1, the Netherlands and Denmark both started developing wind mills in the eighties of the twentieth century, but they differed in the approach. The Danish way turned out to be successful, but the Dutch way was not.

3.2.1 2000 – 2002

The sudden interest and the filing in of building projects for offshore wind energy from the private sector came unexpectedly for the Dutch government since there was no national policy at that time. The Ministry of Economic Affairs (2001) did mention the viability of offshore wind energy in their study on long term visions of energy supply, which was in line with the Fourth National Environmental Plan (NMP-4) from the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment (2001). The NMP-4 suggested radical innovative change in the energy sector to tackle environmental problems. The plan provided a vision on national policy for the long term and, if planned properly, saw a future in offshore wind energy (ibid: p. 168). It even suggested a, for that time, revolutionary scenario in which a transition towards sustainable renewable energy in 2030 would consist of 100 to 150 offshore wind farms (ibid: p. 155). The first tender for an offshore wind farm was issued out in 2001 for the Offshore Windpark Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ) after the Ministry of Economic Affairs issued a subsidy package of €27 million (Verhees et al., 2015: p. 821). Through a bidding system several coalitions from the private sector tried to gain the licence for building the offshore farm and it was eventually given to NoordzeeWind, a coalition of Shell and Nuon. Part of the agreement to gaining the licence was that the government can do an extensive monitoring program.

The transition towards renewable energy sources in the Netherlands : the development of offshore wind policy