Renewable Energy in The Netherlands

Renewable Energy in The Netherlands

Dr. Martien Visser

Professor Energy Transition & Network Integration Hanze University of Applied Sciences Groningen

Partner of the Energy Academy Europe E-mail: b.m.visser@pl.hanze.nl

This analyses contains information of various sources and own analyses, including various estimates. Readers are encouraged to add, to improve the quality of the information provided.

 Electricity production by Solar Energy reached a record level of 0.12 TWh  Solar PV production in April 2015 was 71% higher than in April 2014

 Electricity production by wind energy was 24% higher than in April 2014  A capacity of 41 MW of wind and 30 MW of solar PV was added in April 2015  Power imports into the Netherlands were 9% lower than in previous year  Dutch natural gas production in April fell by 50% y-o-y.

 LNG imports increased by 300% compared to April 2014

 Coal fired power generation increased by 30% compared to last year

 In April 2015, Dutch CO2 emissions were 5% higher compared to April 2014  The fraction renewable energy was 4.4% compared, the same as in April 2014

April 2015

In a Nutshell

• April 2015 data

• Monthly profiles

• Monthly data

• Hourly data

• Miscellaneous

Content

Final Energy Demand

April 2015

Energy is used for many different purposes. In April 2015, the most important applications were heating/gas (21.7 TWh) and various forms of

transport (26.3 TWh). Renewables are given by comparison. 21.7 12.1 11.0 8.7 6.6 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.1 0 5 10 15 20 25

Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock*

Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy* April 2015

TWh

Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, etc.., own analyses

*estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power

Final Energy Demand

April 2015

In April 2015, gas consumption was higher than last year, mainly due to lower temperatures. Energy used for transport, bunkering (shipping) and feedstock is

estimated to be lower than previous year. 3.2 -0.7 -1.2 -0.1 -1.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Gas** Transport* Shipping* Power Feedstock*

Industry* Aviation* Coal** Ren-Energy* April 2015 versus April 2014

TWh

Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, own analyses

*estimated **excl. gas&coal-to-power

CO2 Emissions

April 2015

The national CO2 emissions for April 2015, excluding power imports, feedstock and international shipping & aviation, have been estimated at 12.9 Mton. This was 5% higher than in April 2014 ,

primarily caused by more gas consumption, more coal utilization and lower power imports.

3.9 3.4 _3.1 3.7 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.3 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5

Mton CO2 April 2015

*do not contribute to the national CO2 target ** excl. gas & coal to power Sources: CBS, TenneT, GTS, RIVM,

Last month, estimated wind power capacity increased by 40 MW, while the estimated increase in solar PV capacity was 30 MW.

Power Generation

Capacity April 2015

Gas Coal Wind Biomass* Solar Nuclear

Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, Windstats, own analyses MW April 2015

Power Supplies

April 2015

In April 2015, power consumption was 8.7 TWh, 2% lower than in April 2014. Power imports decreased by 9% y-o-y, exports increased by 17% y-o-y. The usage of coal for power generation increased by 32% y-o-y. In April, the average contribution from renewables to the

2.8 3.8 0.46 0.12 _0.31 0.35 0.63 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

NatGas Coal Wind solar-PV Biomass Nuclear Net imports

Sources: TenneT, GTS, CBS, KNMI, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, own analyses

SELECTED MONTHLY PROFILES

(using daily data)

Daily power demand shows a week-weekend pattern. Daily gas demand (excluding gas demand for power) is mainly used for the heating market and

affected by ambient temperature.

Gas and Power Demand

April 2015

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Power Gas*

April 2015

GWh

Daily conventional power generation peaked in the beginning of April. Based on recent data of CBS, the model to estimate coal-fired power has been readjusted slightly, in favor of coal-firing, from January 2015 onwards. Simultaneously, the estimated power

generation by cogeneration has been decreased.

Conventional Power

Production

April 2015

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Coal Gas Nuclear

April 2015

GWh

Wind generation peaked in the beginning of April. April was a rather sunny month and Solar PV power generation was high. Between 8 and 10 April, solar PV was

significantly larger than wind.

Wind and Solar

Power Production

April 2015

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Wind Solar-PV

April 2015

GWh

Renewable energy peaked to 6% on April 12th_{, while the fraction of renewable power}

peaked to 20% that day. These high values have been caused by high wind speeds. The main contributor to renewable energy is biomass in various forms; variations are mainly

caused by variations in wind energy.

Contribution of

Renewable Energy

April 2015

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Ren% Power Ren% Prim.

April 2015

In April 2015 gas demand (excluding gas demand for power production) was substantially higher than in April 2014, mainly due to lower temperatures in 2015

Gas Demand

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014)

In April 2015, according to GTS data, Dutch gas production was more than 50% (!) lower than in April 2014.

10 TWh gas is sufficient to supply heat to all houses in Amsterdam for two years

Gas Production

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, own analyses

2015 (2014)

After three consecutive months with power demand growth, demand fell by 2% in April 2015 y-o-y.

Power Demand

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: TenneT, CBS, own analyses

2015 (2014)

Monthly, wind power production is volatile y-o-y. Wind production in April 2015 was slightly higher than in April 2014, mainly due to increased wind capacity.

Wind Production

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: CertiQ, KNMI, own analyses

2015 (2014)

In April 2015, electricity production by Solar PV in The Netherlands reached a record level of 123 GWh (0.12 TWh). This quantity was 71% higher than in previous year, due

to increased Solar PV capacity and a lot of sun.

Solar PV Production

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: PolderPV.nl, CertiQ, Klimaatmonitor, KNMI, own analyses

2015 (2014)

For the fourth consecutive month, coal utilization for power generation increased significantly. Based on recent data of CBS, the model to estimate coal-fired power has been readjusted slightly, in favor of coal-firing, from January 2015 onwards.

Coal-to-Power

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014)

In April 2015, power production by gas-fired power stations and cogeneration was significantly lower than in April 2014. Based on recent data of CBS, the model to estimate (gas-fired) cogeneration has been readjusted slightly downwards, from

January 2015 onwards.

Gas to Power

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014)

Send out of Gate terminal into the Dutch gas grid has increased significantly y-o-y.

LNG imports

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014)

Renewable Energy

All Sources

2015 (and 2014)

In April 2015, total renewable energy production in The Netherlands increased by about 4% compared to April 2014. Lower contributions from biomass were

compensated by higher contributions from wind and sun. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014)

In April 2015, the percentage of renewable energy for The Netherlands, as fraction of total energy demand (EU definition), has been estimated at 4.3%, slightly lower

than in April 2014.

Renewable Energy

Percentage

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

For the fourth consecutive month, Dutch national CO2 emissions have increased compared to previous year. The increase in April was 5%. The main causes are a higher energy usage due to lower temperatures, economic growth and less power imports. Due to the adjustment of the model to estimate coal-fired power and gas-fired cogeneration, estimated CO2 emissions in January, February and March 2015 have been revised slightly upwards.

CO2 Emissions

2015 (and 2014)

Sources: GTS, TenneT, CBS, CE-Delft, Windstats, PolderPV, KNMI, etc., own analyses

2015 (2014)

In April 2015, hourly gas production peaked at 130.000 MW (130 GW). LNG production in April increased to 1,5 TWh, three times higher than in April 2014.

Natural gas production in the Netherlands fell by more than 50% y-o-y.

Gas Supply

April 2015

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Natural Gas origins April 2015

Storages Gas import LNG Terminals Production

MWh

On April 1st_{, gas demand in The Netherlands peaked to 70.000 MW (70 GW). The peak}

in gas demand has been caused by a combination of relatively low temperatures and high demand of gas for power generation.

Gas Demand

Including Gas-to-Power

April 2015

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Gas Demand April 2015

Industry LDC points MWh

Gas Imports & Exports

April 2015

In April 2015, gas exports and imports were almost balanced. Estimated gas exports were 33 TWh, 21% lower than previous year. Gas imports were 28 TWh, 46% higher y-o-y.

Typically, gas imports and exports were about 40,000 MW. -100000 -80000 -60000 -40000 -20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

April 2015

Gas export Gas import MWh

Power Imports &

Exports

April 2015

In April 2015, power imports were 2.0 TWh, 9% less than in April 2014. Power exports increased to 1.4 TWh, 17% higher than previous year.

-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

April 2015

Power import Power export MWh

April 2015 was characterized by low wind availability and consequently, the utilization rate of the available wind capacity was relatively low.

Wind Power

April 2015

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Wind Power April 2015

MWh

In April Solar-PV reached a record level of 123 GWh. Solar-PV peaked to 700 MW, up from 500 MW in February 2015, due to more intense sun-power. In April 2015, most

days were sunny and solar-PV was 71% higher than previous year.

Solar PV Power

April 2015

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Solar Power April 2015

MWh

The following set of slides presents for each month

in 2015 the hourly contributions of various energy

sources to total power consumption in The

Power Generation

January 2015

In the week of 20-24 January, power generation peaked, due to the net exports that occurred. The majority of the additional power generation has been generated by

gas-fired installations. -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan

Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas

MW January 2015

Power Generation

February 2015

Like in January, low wind availability coincided with net exports of power. -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

1-Feb 8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb

Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas

MW February 2015

Power Generation

March 2015

Relatively low imports of power occurred in March. On several Saturdays, some net exports were recorded.

-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar 22-Mar 29-Mar

Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas

MW March 2015

Power Generation

April 2015

Relatively low imports of power occurred in April. On several occasions, mainly on Saturdays, net exports were recorded. April showed several days with high coal-fired generation, while gas-fired generation was low.

-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Net import Nuclear Other Renewable Coal NatGas

MW April 2014

The following set of slides presents for each week in

2015 the hourly contributions of wind and solar-PV

to the total power consumption in The Netherlands.

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

5-Jan 6-Jan 7-Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

19-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

26-Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 1-Feb Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

2-Feb 3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

9-Feb 10-Feb 11-Feb 12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-Feb Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

16-Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 21-Feb 22-Feb Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 27-Feb 28-Feb 1-Mar Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Sources: TenneT, CertiQ, PolderPV.nl, KNMI, etc., own analyses

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

2-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 20-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr 9-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

13-Apr 14-Apr 15-Apr 16-Apr 17-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

Hourly Solar-PV and

Wind Generation 2015

20-Apr 21-Apr 22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr Rest Wind solar-PV

MWh 2015

The effective temperature (temperature including wind shield factor) in April 2015. April 2015 was colder than the same month last year. For comparison, effective daily

temperatures of April 2014 are presented as well.

Effective Temperature

April 2015

1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

April 2015 (2014)

Sources: KNMI, own analyses o_C

Characteristic CO2 emissions used in this presentation.

Fuel Specific CO2

Emissions

Sources: CE-Delft, own analyses Power Generation

This presentation is based on numerous sources which present data on energy

demand and supply in The Netherlands. These data, however, do not cover the

entire energy system. Some approximations and scaling factors were thus

needed. The author would like to thank students from Hanze University of

Applied Science in Groningen and various energy experts in The Netherlands

which gave suggestions for improvements of the methods used. Currently, the

aggregated results of this work are in good agreement with data supplied by the

Dutch National Office of Statistics (CBS). It is believed by the author that the

detailed results in this presentation give a fair presentation of the complex

reality of the Dutch energy system.

Nevertheless, the author invites readers to comment on the data provided with

the objective to further improve this work. After all, good and reliable data are

at the heart of any successful policy to make our world more sustainable.

Epilogue