• No results found

6. Conclusion and Recommendations

6.3. Research Limitations and Future Research Recommendation

1. The potential distance travelled, and energy consumption is without the consideration of the demand loaded in the vehicle. The potential distance travelled might reduce due to the load of the vehicle, and the energy consumption might increase when the load of vehicle increase

2. The distribution of BSS is not considering the real possible distribution location and traffic in the Netherlands

3. In this project, the system needs to consider how many batteries need to be provided at the battery switching stations while considering the service level of the stations. The numbers of battery in this project are calculated while considering the service level.

Nevertheless, it has not been checked whether this battery number will be sufficient to ensure the service level of the stations.

Based on this limitations, the future research might consider to include the vehicle’s load to the function of distance travelled and energy consumption. The simulation of the system to ensure the success of inventory management might also be included for the vehicle replacement model research when the system needs to provide spare part inventory. In addition to these recommendations, other charging infrastructure, such as fast charging station, might be interesting to be investigated as the alternative of charging infrastructure for a logistics company that wants to use electric trucks.

47

References

1cm170greenlogistics.wixsite.com. (2017, August 1). GreenLogistics Assumptions. Retrieved

from 1cm170greenlogistics.wixsite.com:

https://1cm170greenlogistics.wixsite.com/greenlogistics/assumptions

Ahmad, M. (2006). Government Policy and The Development of Electric Vehicle in Japan. Energy Policy, 4, 433-443.

Avci, B., Girotra, K., & Netessine, S. (2015). Electric Vehicle with A Battery Switching Station:

Adoption and Environmental Impact. Management Science, 61(4), 772-794.

Bae, S., & Kwasinski, A. (2012). Spacial and Temporal Model of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid., 3, 394-403.

Baker, E., Chon, H., & Keisler, J. (2010). Battery Technology for Electirc and Hybrid Vehicles:

Expert Views Prospects for Advancement. Technological Forecasting and Social Exchange, 77, 1139-1146.

Brian, A., & Miguel, .. (2013). A Methodology To Evaluate The Competitiveness of Electric Delivery Trucks. Transportation Research Part E, 49, 8-23.

Burke, A. (2007). Battery and Ultracapacitors for Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell Vehicles.

Proceeding of The IEEE, 95, 806-820.

carbontax.org. (2017, June 17). Where Carbon Is Taxed. Retrieved from carbontax.org:

https://www.carbontax.org/where-carbon-is-taxed/#Other

Catenaccia, M., Verdolini, E., Bosetti, V., & Fiorese, G. (2013). Going Electric: Expert Survey on The Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles. Energy Policy, 61, 403-413.

Chan, C. (1993). An Overview of Electric Vehicle Technology. Proceeding of The IEEE, 81, 1202-1213.

Chan, C. (2007). The State of The Art of Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell Vehicles. Proceeding of The IEEE, 95, 704-718.

Chen, T., Kockelman, K., & Khan, M. (2013). The Electric Vehicle Charging Station Location Problem: A Parking-Based Assignment Method for Seattle. Proceedings of the 92nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board in Washington DC.

Cleantechnica. (2017, 3 27). Cleantechnica. Retrieved from EV Battery Prices Fell 14% in Last Year: https://cleantechnica.com/2012/04/18/ev-battery-prices-fell-14-in-last-year/

cleantechnica.com. (2017, 1 May). Battery Life Time: How Long Can Electric Vehicle Batteries Last. Retrieved from cleantechnica.com: https://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/31/battery-lifetime-long-can-electric-vehicle-batteries-last/

Diamond, D. (2009). The Impact of Government Incentives for Hybrid-Electric Vehicles: Evidence from US States. Energy Policy, 37, 972-983.

DOE, U. (2017, March 12). About EV Everywhere. Retrieved from energy.gov:

https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office-batteries

EC. (2007). Commission Directive 2007/46/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 5 September 2007 Establishing A Framework for The Approval of Motor Cars and Their Trailers, and of Systems, Components and Separate Technical Units Intended for Such Cars. Official Journal of the European Union L263, 1–160.

electreck.co. (2017, 5 May). Electric Vehicle Battery Cost Dropped 80% in 6 Years Down to

$227/kWh-Tesla Claims to be Bellow $190/kWh. Retrieved from electreck.co:

https://electrek.co/2017/01/30/electric-vehicle-battery-cost-dropped-80-6-years-227kwh-tesla-190kwh/

Electrek. (2017, 3 27). Electrek.co. Retrieved from Electric Vehicle Battery Cost Dropped 80% in 6 Years Down to $225/kWh Tesla Claims to be Below $190/kWh:

https://electrek.co/2017/01/30/electric-vehicle-battery-cost-dropped-80-6-years-227kwh-tesla-190kwh/

48

Electrek. (2017, July 1). Tesla Semi Leasing Batteries Electric Truck. Retrieved from Electrek.co:

https://electrek.co/2017/04/20/tesla-semi-leasing-batteries-electric-truck/

ElectrificationCoalition. (2010). Fleet Electrification Roadmap. ElectrificationCoalition.

emissionsauthority.nl. (2017, August 19). Energy for Transport. Retrieved from emissionsauthority.nl: https://www.emissionsauthority.nl/topics/themes/energy-for-transport

emoss.biz. (2017, June 22). Electric Truck. Retrieved from emoss.biz:

http://www.emoss.biz/electric-truck/

ev-box.com. (2017, June 10). What Are The Costs of Charging En Electric Car. Retrieved from ev-box.com: http://www.ev-box.com/knowledge-center/faq/what-are-the-costs-of-charging-an-electric-car/

EVVolumes. (2017, March 9). Total World Plug In Vehicle Volumes. Retrieved from EV Volumes:

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/

Feng, L., Ge, S., & Liu, H. (2012). Electric Vehicle Charging Station Planning Based on Weighted Voronoi Diagram. Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC) Asia Pasific.

Feng, W., & Figliozzi, M. (2012). Conventional VS Electric Comercial Vehicle Fleets: A Case Study of Economic and Technologycal Factors Affecting The Competitiveness of Electric Commercial Vehicles in The USA. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 39, 702-711.

Fortune. (2017, March 12). Tesla Long Range Electric Car. Retrieved from Fortune:

http://fortune.com/2017/01/22/tesla-long-range-electric-car/

fuelly.com. (2017, June 3). Truck Isuzu NPR. Retrieved from fuelly.com:

http://www.fuelly.com/truck/isuzu/npr

Ge, S., Feng, L., & Liu, H. (2011). The Planning of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Based on Grid Partition Method. Electrical and Control Engineering (ICECE).

globalpetrolprices.com. (2017, 10 June). Netherlands Gasoline Prices. Retrieved from globalpetrolprices.com: http://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Netherlands/gasoline_prices/

GM. (2017, March 12). General Motors Company 2015 Global Business Conference. Retrieved from GM: www.gm.com/content/dam/gm/events/docs/5194074-596155-ChartSet-10-1-2015

Gondelach, S., & Faaij, A. (2012). Performance of Batteries for Electric Vehicles on Short and Longer Term. Journal of Power Sources, 212, 111-129.

Green, E., Skerlos, S., & Winebrake, J. (2014). Increasing Electric Vehicle Policy Efficiency and Effectiveness by Reducing Mainstream Market Bias. Energy Policy, 65, 562-566.

GreenOptions. (2017, March 10). Introduction to electric cars and electric scooters. Retrieved from Green Option: http://www.greenoptions.com/wiki/introduction-to-electric-cars-and-electric-scooters

Hidrue, M., Parsons, G., Kempton, W., & Gardner, M. (2011). Willingness to Pay for Electric Vehicles and Their Attributes. Resource and Energy Economics, 33, 686-705.

HybridCARS. (2017, March 13). Tesla projects battery costs could drop to $100/kWh by 2020.

Retrieved from HybridCARS: www.hybridcars.com/tesla-projects-battery-costs-could-drop-to-100kwh-by-2020

IEA. (2011). Technology Roadmap Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Paris:

International Energy Agency.

IEA. (2012). Energy Technology Perspectives 2012, Pathways to a Clean Energy System. Paris:

International Energy Agency.

IEA. (2016). Global EV Outlook 2016 Beyond One Million Electric Cars. Paris: International Energy Agency.

Isuzucv. (2017, May 30). N-Series Diesel Trucks. Retrieved from www.isuzucv.com:

http://www.isuzucv.com/en/nseries/diesel_trucks

49

Lee, D., Thomas, V., & Brown, M. (2013). Electric Urban Delivery Trucks: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Cost Effectivenes. Environment Science Technology, 47, 8022-8030.

Liu, J. (2012). Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Assignment and Power Grid Impacts Assessment in Beijing. Energy Policy, 51, 544-557.

Maister, D. (1976). Centralisation of Inventories and Square Root Law. International Journal of Physical Distribution, Vol. 6, 124-134.

Mak, H., Rong, Y., & Shen, Z. (2013). Infrastructure Planning for Electric Vehicles with Battery Swapping. Management Science, 59, 1557-1575.

McKinsey&Co. (2017, March 12). EU powertrain coalition. A Portfolio of Power-Trains for Europe:

A Fact-Based Analysis. The Role of Battery Electric Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrids and Fuel

Cell Electric Vehicles. Retrieved from fch.europa.eu:

http://www.fch.europa.eu/sites/default/files/Power_trains_for_Europe_0.pdf

Mecometer.com. (2017, May 30). Central Bank Discount Rate-Netherlands. Retrieved from Mecometer.com: http://mecometer.com/whats/netherlands/central-bank-discount-rate/

Mierlo, J., Maggetto, G., & Lataire, P. (2006). Which Energy Source for Road Transport in The Future? A Comparison of Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Vehicles. Energy Conversion and Management, 47, 2748-2760.

Mierlo, J., Maggetto, G., & Lataire, P. (2006). Which Energy Source for Road Transport in The Future? A Comparison of Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Vehicles. Energy Conversion and Management, 47, 2748-2760.

MITElectricVehicelTeam. (2017, March 15). Wheel to well analysis of EVs. Retrieved from mit:

http://mit.edu/evt/summary_wtw.pdf

Pearre, N., Kempton, W., Guensler, R., & Elango, V. (2011). Electric Vehicles: How Much Range Is Required for A Day's Driving? Transportation Research Part C, 19, 1171-1184.

Pelletier, S., Jabali, O., & Laportie, G. (2016). Goods Distribution with Electric Vehicles: Review and Research Perspective. Transportation Science, 50(1), 3-22.

Peterson, S., & Michalek, J. (2013). Cost-Effectiveness of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Battery Capacity and Charging Infrastructure Investment for Reducing US Gasoline Consumption.

Energy Policy, 52, 429-438.

RoadSafetyAuthority. (2017, May 25). Drivers Hours. Retrieved from rsa.ie:

http://www.rsa.ie/Documents/Tachograph_Enf/Drivers_Hours.pdf

Rowe, E., Gardner, B., Abraham, C., Skippon, S., Dittmar, H., Hutchins, R., & Stannard, J. (2012).

Mainstream Consumers Driving Plug-In-Battery and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Cars: A Qualitative Analysis of Responses and Evaluations. Transportation Research Part A, 46, 140-153.

salaryexpert.com. (2017, June 10). Freight Truck Driver Salary in Noord Netherlands. Retrieved from salaryexpert.com: https://www.salaryexpert.com/salary/job/freight-truck-driver/netherlands/noord-netherlands

Sari, T. (2017). Preparation Master Thesis 1: Literature Study. The Strategy to Increase Electric Vehicle Adoption Rate.

Schroeder, A., & Traber, T. (2012). The Economics of Fast Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles. Energy Policy, 43, 136-144.

scrapsalesusa.com. (2017, June 25). Scrap Sales in the USA. Retrieved from scrapsalesusa.com: http://www.scrapsalesusa.com/scrap-battery-prices-in-the-usa/

Sierzchula, W., Bakker, S., Maat, K., & Wee, B. (2014). The Influence of Financial Incentives and Other Socio-Economic Factors on Electric Vehicle Adoption. Energy Policy, 68, 183-194.

Tamor, M., Gearhart, C., & Soto, C. (2013). A Statistical Approach To Estimating Acceptance of Electric Vehicles and Electrification of Personal Transportation. Transportation Research Part C, 26, 125-134.

50

UNFCCC. (2017, March 10). The Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change and Climate Change and Call to Action. Retrieved from Newsroom.UNFCCC:

http://newsroom.unfccc.int/lpaa/transport/the-paris-declaration-on-electro-mobility-and-climate-change-and-call-to-action/

USDepartementOfEnergy. (2017, June 5). Navistar eStar Vehicle Performance Evaluation-Cumulative. Retrieved from nrel.gov: www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/61899.pdf

Walkowicz, K. D. (2017, May 5). Fleet DNA Project Data Summary. Retrieved from nrel.gov:

https://www.nrel.gov/transportation/assets/pdfs/fleet_dna_delivery_trucks_report.pdf Weinert, J., Ma, C., & Cherry, C. (2007). The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and

Key Reasons for Rapid Growth. Transportations, 34, 301-318.

Weiss, M., Patel, M., Junginger, M., Perujo, A., Bonnel, P., & van Grootveld, G. (2012). On The Electrification of Road Transport - Learning Rates and Price Forecasts for Hybrid-Electric and Battery-Electric Vehicles. Energy Policy, 48, 374-393.

wired.com. (2017, May 1). Unlike Hyperloop, Elon Musk's Electric Big-Rig Actually Makes Sense.

Retrieved from wired.com: https://www.wired.com/2017/04/tesla-electric-truck/

Worley, O., Klabjan, D., & Sweda, T. (2012). Simultaneous Vehicle Routing and Charging Station Siting for Commercial Electric Vehicles. IEEE International Electric Vehicle Conference .

51

capacity demand change oil price oil price oil price limited driving

distance EV's emissionEV's

emission carbon tax price carbon

tax price carbon

tax price battery price battery price BSS

investmentbattery price and Purchase Cost of Vehicles ($) 2730442.3 2730442.336 4297684.12 3220697.49 2730442.336 2730442.34 4079231.544 2668985.157 2730442.34 3220697 2730442 2730442 2730442.336 4468765.724 4079231.5 4468765.724 Salvaged Value Vehicles ($) 60545.265 60545.26513 88104.71356 63935.1753 60545.26513 60545.2651 70804.87314 60618.11146 60545.2651 63935.18 60545.27 60545.27 60545.26513 74346.32543 70804.873 74346.32543 Maintenance Cost of Vehicles ( 9288002.9 9288002.938 13530627 8883459.84 9288002.938 9288002.94 8470913.361 9511371.907 9288002.94 8883460 9288003 9288003 9288002.938 8495771.767 8470913.4 8495771.767 Energy Cost for Vehicles ($) 6593639.3 6593639.317 9574831.08 100466360 39355739.38 41403370.6 4697496.633 6880174.353 6593639.32 5796142 6593639 6593639 6593639.317 730331.3745 4697496.6 730331.3745 Emission Cost ($) 271279.26 271279.2556 392432.4725 230567.526 271279.2556 271279.256 172818.3384 280438.6179 269476.273 2.21E+08 65107021 66192138 271279.2556 145575.6173 172818.34 145575.6173

Station Investment Cost ($) 15655000 15655000 23332688.2 49334165.7 15655000 15655000 0 8080000 15655000 49334166 15655000 15655000 15655000 0 0 0

Station Maintenance Cost ($) 1565500 1565500 2333268.82 4933416.57 1565500 1565500 0 808000 1565500 4933417 1565500 1565500 1565500 0 0 0

Battery Purchase Cost ($) 952911.55 952911.5483 1429282.528 2582298.4 952911.5483 952911.548 604712.5681 504482.5844 952911.548 2582298 952911.5 952911.5 616877.0332 625378.5681 604712.57 625378.5681 Holding Battery Cost ($) 505411.79 505411.7856 875313.0822 1612657.79 505411.7856 505411.786 394209.0013 267570.9453 505411.786 1612658 505411.8 505411.8 311773.99 304113.6365 394209 304113.6365 Salvage Battery Value ($) 16277.406 16277.40581 24205.3862 43676.3726 16277.40581 16277.4058 10198.39747 8617.450135 16277.4058 43676.37 16277.41 16277.41 16277.40581 17191.61282 10198.397 17191.61282 Waiting Time Cost ($) 10486.356 10486.35643 19783.19399 33192.5646 10486.35643 10486.3564 0 5243.131157 10486.3564 33192.56 10486.36 10486.36 10486.35643 0 69522.169 89792.63896 Total Cost ($) 37495851 37495850.87 55673600.4 171189204 70257950.93 72305582.2 18338378.18 28937031.13 31171687.8 2.98E+08 96007430 97092547 36966178.56 14678398.75 18407900 14768191.39

Percentage-Yearly Emission Target

52

capacity demand change oil price oil price oil price limited driving

distance EV's emissionEV's

emission carbon tax price carbon tax

price carbon tax

price battery price battery price BSS

investmentbattery price and Purchase Cost of Vehicles ($) 13594860 13033297.13 20210581.31 21722410.2 21530431.32 23915833.3 21705843.23 13471945.59 13533402.8 21722410 21530431.3 23915833.3 13594859.95 21722410.23 21705843 21722410.23 Salvaged Value Vehicles ($) 261316.47 254213.0474 383821.7793 321927.645 343198.5869 369161.428 321828.6346 261462.1638 261389.318 321927.64 343198.587 369161.428 261316.4712 321927.6445 321828.63 321927.6445 Maintenance Cost of Vehicles 45909419 45182858.39 67621912.55 41268356.7 41090674.03 39656424.3 41271725.34 46356157.36 46132788.4 41268357 41090674 39656424.3 45909419.42 41268356.68 41271725 41268356.68 Energy Cost for Vehicles ($) 32456289 32292078.25 47905290.21 27216055.4 76078786.63 44240486.6 19900520.98 33029358.85 32742823.8 19754705 23773072.5 21327607.1 32456288.77 19754705.39 19900521 19754705.39 Emission Cost ($) 1335066.8 1333408.255 1971131.096 674300.153 883473.9292 756138.418 681871.9132 1326340.777 1340620.18 647328147 212033743 184497774 1335066.786 674300.1533 681871.91 674300.1533 Station Investment Cost ($) 15655000 14645000 15866082.62 133981108 96135084.31 119316848 0 12625000 14140000 133981108 96135084.3 119316848 15655000 0 0 0 Station Maintenance Cost ($) 1565500 1464500 1586608.262 19719170.4 9613508.431 11931684.8 0 1262500 1414000 19719170 9613508.43 11931684.8 1565500 0 0 0 Battery Purchase Cost ($) 2746627.4 2130037.578 3516481.207 23630516.7 13735515.47 16880611 4640573.243 2186091.199 2466359.3 23630517 13735515.5 16880611 1778057.331 3129173.585 4640573.2 3129173.585 Holding Battery Cost ($) 1456775.1 1129743.991 1881805.12 12420104.3 8924248.181 11061490.5 2534776.564 1159474.096 1308124.62 12420104 8924248.18 11061490.5 898642.6771 1569549.243 2534776.6 1569549.243 Salvage Battery Value ($) 46917.229 36384.78946 60037.8593 403852.884 231700.9577 284587.335 79137.99855 37342.28392 42129.7562 403852.88 231700.958 284587.335 46917.22851 83258.73053 79137.999 83258.73053 Waiting Time Cost ($) 52492.147 36731.1873 75768.57343 452097.067 325283.8184 402575.158 0 41993.23396 47242.6896 452097.07 325283.818 402575.158 52492.14741 0 447540.71 452091.5365 Total Cost ($) 114463796 110957056.9 160191801.3 280358339 267742106.6 267508343 90334344.64 111160056.7 112821843 919550835 426586662 428337099 112937093.4 87713308.91 90781885 88165400.44

Percentage-emission target per year

53

demand low daily demand high daily demand low daily

demand high daily

demand low daily

demand low daily demand low daily demand low daily demand

information daily

40000 kg daily demand is

40000 kg daily demand is

40000 kg daily demand is 40000 kg

Purchase Cost of Vehicles ($) 2697607 13589173.77 2698651.857 14136463.1 2745852.09 13382583.7 2730442.336 2730442.336 2698651.857 2745852.09

Salvaged Value Vehicles ($) 60630.167 261504.5874 60601.15511 269279.461 62396.0835 264988.872 60545.26513 60545.26513 60601.15511 62396.0835

Maintenance Cost of Vehicles 9464333 45915590.65 9415495.785 45923638.7 9681611.242 46607388.1 9288002.938 9288002.938 9415495.785 9681611.242 Energy Cost for Vehicles ($) 6800957.7 32622224.99 6760406.895 32602615 7099964.698 34083342.5 6593639.317 6593639.317 6760406.895 7099964.698

Emission Cost ($) 281167.69 1343602.348 279233.5433 1341239.87 295429.3799 1418126.86 271279.2556 271279.2556 279233.5433 295429.3799

Station Investment Cost ($) 10007686 14233208.86 11246239.32 15676892.3 1823316.553 1823316.55 15655000 15655000 11246239.32 1823316.553

Station Maintenance Cost ($) 1472918.6 2094825.714 1655207.309 2307305.21 182331.6553 182331.655 1565500 1565500 1655207.309 182331.6553

Battery Purchase Cost ($) 622317.94 2303494.119 650776.9562 2878809.87 295787.4097 852563.71 952911.5483 952911.5483 650776.9562 295787.4097

Holding Battery Cost ($) 16176.075 66162.51971 18349.24708 72571.457 58864.62311 169668.62 505411.7856 505411.7856 18349.24708 58864.62311

Salvage Battery Value ($) 10641.973 39166.54177 11077.46424 49309.8227 5227.529963 15067.5864 16277.40581 16277.40581 11077.46424 5227.529963

Waiting Time Cost ($) 6692.7261 47565.62122 7434.722371 52260.243 1221.331668 6113.689 10486.35643 10486.35643 7434.722371 1221.331668

Total Cost ($) 31298584 111915177.5 32660117.02 114673206 22116755.37 98245378.9 37495850.87 37495850.87 32660117.02 22116755.37

Percentage-Total Emission Throughout Planning Horizon

Percentage-Emission Reduction Target Based on the Past Emission Target

Percentage-Emission Reduction Target at The End Year of Planning Horizon