Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook May 14 – May 20, 2015
A sharp reduction in early season rainfall received across Guatemala during the last week.
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Unseasonable rains received during early May.
Following a week where widespread, heavy rainfall accumulations were received throughout much of Central America during late April, unseasonably low and poorly distributed rains were received during the last week. Moderate to locally heavy shower activity was observed along both Atlantic and Pacific departments, with little rainfall amounts observed over several interior departments in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. Over the last 90 days, precipitation has remained generally neutral to above-average for several regions in Central America. Areas that have experienced marginally below-average moisture conditions mainly include northeastern Guatemala and western Honduras. Here, the evolution of late season Apante rainfall has been erratic, with intermittent dry spells during the month of April. Analysis of satellite estimated vegetation conditions suggest some deterioration in these areas, however, negative conditions have been largely observed near the Gulf of Fonseca region.
During the next week, increased amounts of precipitation is forecast over Central America compared to the previous week, however, more precipitation is climatologically expected during early May. The potential for the heaviest rains is forecast over the southern Caribbean, with more moderate amounts expected further north.
Week 1 Rainfall Total and Rainfall Anomaly Forecast (mm) May 13 – May 20, 2015
Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC
