University of Groningen Between Welfare and Farewell de Jong, Petra Wieke

University of Groningen

Between Welfare and Farewell de Jong, Petra Wieke

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Publication date: 2019

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de Jong, P. W. (2019). Between Welfare and Farewell: The role of welfare systems in intra-European migration decisions. University of Groningen.

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Petra de Jong

Between Welfare and Farewell

COLOFON

This PhD dissertation is part of and financed by the Norface project “MobileWelfare:

European welfare systems in times of mobility” (grant number 462-14-150). For more

information, please visit http://www.mobile-welfare.org/

The author gratefully acknowledges the financial support for printing this dissertation by the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI/KNAW/RUG) and the University of Groningen (RUG).

Cover: Carolien Veldkamp (www.projectdrawn.com) and Ridderprint BV Printed by: Ridderprint BV

ISBN: 978-94-034-1263-4 (book)

ISBN: 978-94-034-1262-7 (digital version) © Petra Wieke de Jong, 2019

No parts of this book may be reproduced in any form or by means, print, photocopy, microfilm, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.

Between Welfare and Farewell

The Role of Welfare Systems in Intra-European Migration

Decisions

PhD thesis

to obtain the degree of PhD at the University of Groningen

on the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. E. Sterken

and in accordance with

the decision by the College of Deans. This thesis will be defended in public on Thursday 17 January 2019 at 14.30 hours

by

Petra Wieke de Jong

born on 15 March 1992 in Delft

Supervisor

Prof. H.A.G. de Valk

Assessment committee

Prof. G.B.M. Engbersen Prof. M. Lubbers

Al bezat ik alle kennis en doorgrondde ik alle geheimen – had ik de liefde niet, ik zou niets zijn

Contents

1.1  Welfare systems in the context of free mobility 15 

1.2  Theory 16 

1.2.1  Welfare as a pull-factor 16 

1.2.2  European ‘welfare magnets’? 17 

1.2.3  Categories of support 18 

1.2.4  Introducing the life course approach 19 

1.2.5  Beyond the welfare magnet hypothesis 20 

1.3  Empirical background 21 

1.4  Contributions of the thesis 23 

1.5  Research context 24 

1.6  Data 26 

1.6.1  Secondary macro-level data 26 

1.6.2  Primary micro-level data 27 

1.7  Outline of the thesis 28 

2.1  Introduction 33 

2.2  Welfare and free mobility 35 

2.2.1  Length of stay 37 

2.2.2  Type of benefit 38 

2.2.3  Position on the labour market 39 

2.3.1  Intra-EU migration after the EU enlargements 40 

2.3.2  The Dutch welfare context 41 

2.4  Data 42  2.5  Results 43 

2.5.1  Size and age composition of migration flows 43 

2.5.2  Return and onward migration 45 

2.5.3  Labour market status 46 

2.6  Discussion 48 

3.1  Introduction 55  3.2  Theory 57 

3.2.1  The welfare magnet hypothesis in the context of Europe 57 

3.2.2  Hypotheses 59  3.2.3  Controls 60 

3.3  Data and Methods 61 

3.3.1  Analytical approach 61  3.3.2  Data 62  3.3.3  Variables 63  3.3.4  Identification strategy 65  3.4  Results 66  3.4.1  Descriptive statistics 66 

3.4.2  Conditional Logit Models 68 

3.5 Robustness checks 75

4.1  Introduction 83  4.2  Theory 85 

4.2.1  Migration and the welfare system in the context of Europe 86 

4.2.2  Introducing the life course approach 87 

4.2.3  Towards a dynamic model of migration 88 

4.3  Conceptual model 88 

4.4  Data and Methods 90 

4.4.1  Data 90 

4.4.2  Analytical Approach 93 

4.5  Results 93 

4.5.1  Migration decisions 93 

4.5.2  Influence of welfare before migration 95 

4.5.3  Influence of welfare after migration 97 

4.5.4  Variation across skill-level, gender and nationality 100 

4.6  Migration decisions as embedded in the life course 101 

4.7  Discussion 102

5.1  Introduction 109 

5.2  Theoretical framework 111 

5.2.1  Welfare and the aspiration to migrate 111 

5.2.2  Welfare as a way to reduce uncertainty 112 

5.2.3  Other relevant mechanisms 114 

5.3  Data and Methods 115 

5.3.2  Dependent variables 118 

5.3.3  Independent variables and controls 118 

5.3.4  Sample 118 

5.3.5  Analytical strategy 119 

5.4  Results 121 

5.4.1  Migration aspirations 121 

5.4.2  Test of the hypotheses 121 

5.4.3  Main effects of vignette dimensions and personality traits 122 

5.4.4  Impact of time dimension 123 

5.4.5  Interactions with economic circumstances 123 

5.4.6  Interactions with personality traits 126 

5.5  Discussion 126 

6.1  Introduction 135 

6.2  Summary of the findings 136 

6.2.1  Migration and welfare access in the Netherlands 136 

6.2.2  The influence of welfare on locational choices across Europe 137 

6.2.3  Welfare and migration decisions as embedded in time and space 138 

6.2.4  The role of welfare in shaping migration aspirations 139 

6.3  Discussion of the results 140 

6.3.1  Welfare systems, migration and the life course 140 

6.3.2  Welfare as a pull factor? 143 

6.3.3  Origin and destination country 144 

6.4  Methodological implications 145 

6.4.2  Directions for future research 148