UNFCCC Climate negotiations

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Faculty of Geosciences – Utrecht University

Klimaatbeleid

Temperatuurstijging alleen met grote inspanning te beperken

EU

Idealistisch / im-materieel

Uniformiteit Globalisering

Diversiteit Regionalisering

Materialistisch Absoluut Idealisme

Kerk; institutionele religie Overheid; EU, UN Bureaucratie

Subjectief Idealisme Civil society Gedrag Sociaal Dilemma

Post-Modenisme Burger

Fort Europa Culturele blokken Conflict Modernisme

Consumptie Economie Vrije markt WTO Wetenschap

Technologie / Complexiteit

Uniformity Globalisation

Idealistic

Diversity Regionalisation

Materialistic Consumptive

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2

^nd

element: Broaden participation

IPCC-TAR: Risks of climate change increase with temperature change

The severity of the adverse impacts will be larger for greater cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases and associated changes in climate.

Mogelijke veranderingen in de beschikbaarheid van water over de hele wereld tegen het einde van de 21e eeuw

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UNFCCC Climate negotiations

•  Slow multi-lateral UN process with many 224 UN countries

–  Agreement must be unanimously (one country can block agreement) –  1992: Objective ‘stabilize GHG concentration at non-dangerous level’

–  1997: Kyoto Protocol: -5.2% compared to 1990-levels –  2001: USA and Australia reject Kyoto Protocol –  2003: ratification Kyoto Protocol (signed by Russia) –  2006: discussions start for post-2012 agreement –  2007 Bali conference

•  Different position of countries

–  EU takes the lead in climate negotiations (EU 2 degree target) –  USA focus on economic development/technology (no climate policy) –  G-77 (including China) economic development first (Annex I needs to take

the lead, Article 3.1 UNFCCC)

–  Least developing countries most severely affected by climate change (least capacity)

Asia Pacific Partnership on development and climate (APPCDC): initiative by USA, Australia, China, India, Japan, South-Korea

•  Started July 2005, participants account for 50% global emissions

•  agreed to cooperate on technologies including energy efficiency, clean coal, carbon capture and storage, methane capture and use, civilian nuclear power, advanced transportation, agriculture and forestry, hydropower, wind, solar, …. .

•  Targets focus on emission intensity

•  Leads to almost no reductions compared to baseline emissions

Almost Business as Usual

Pathways

•  Peak of emissions 2015-2020

•  In 2020, global emissions may increase to: 20% [15-25] -450 35% [30-40] -550 above 1990 levels

•  In 2050, global emissions have to be reduced by 35% [25-45]

-450 5% [0-10] - 550 below 1990 levels

Post-2012 regimes (about 40-50 regimes) Cap & Trade

–  Contraction & Convergence (GCI)*

–  Common-but-differentiated Convergence (Ecofys, MNP) –  Brazilian Proposal (Brazil)*

–  Multi-stage (MNP)*

–  Ability to Pay (MIT) –  CSE convergence (India) –  South-North dialogue Proposal

–  Triptych approach (University Utrecht, Ecofys)*

–  Multi-Criteria Convergence –  Grandfathering (OECD countries) –  Global compromise

den Elzen and Lucas, 2005, The FAIR model, Environmental Modelling Assessment

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2.5 x

VS EU

Triptych

Emission reductions

Reduction below 1990

levels 2020 2050

450 ppm

CO2-eq Annex I -5% -35% -70% -90%

Non-Annex I 20-30% reduction compared to baseline LAM, ME and China

60-80% reductions for LAM, ME and China, and lower for Africa and India

550 ppm CO2-eq

Annex I +10% -20% -50% -70%

Non-Annex I 20-30% reduction for LAM and ME

50-70% reductions for LAM, ME and China

LAM: Latin America, ME: Middle East

(bp.com)

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•  Stabilizing GHG concentration at low levels in order to meet 2 degree target technically feasible possible with ‘known techniques’

•  Pay-off between costs and certainty of meeting 2°C:

Costs

Mitigation costs

(as % of GDP) (5% discount rate)

Chance of meeting 2°C

650 ppm CO₂-eq 0.2% [0.1-0.4] 12% [0-25]

550 ppm CO₂-eq 0.7% [0.3-0.9] 34% [5-50]

450 ppm CO₂-eq 1.2% [0.5-1.5] 54% [15-70]

den Elzen, Meinshausen and van Vuuren, 2006, Multi-gas emission envelopes, GEC

If the world population would change to a low meat diet, mitigation costs (450 ppm) would be reduced with 50 %

Klimaat- en energiedoelen

Onderwerp Regeerakkoord Europese Commissie

Klimaat -30% -20% EU unilateraal;

-30% alle ontwikkelde landen Energiebesparing 2% per jaar 2,7% per jaar (2007 – 2020)

Hernieuwbare energie 20% van het totale

energiegebruik 20% van het totale energiegebruik

“The EC proposes that the EU pursues in the context of international negotiations the objective of 30% reduction in GHG emissions by developed countries by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels).

Until an international agreement is concluded, and without prejudice to its position in international negotiations, the EU should already now take on a firm independent commitment to achieve at least a 20 % reduction of GHG emissions by 2020”

European Commission: at least 20% for the EU

30% reduction (unilateral) 20% reduction (unilateral) or 30% reduction (multi-lateral)

EU’s 2°C target

•  “[...] the Council believes that global average temperatures should not exceed 2 degrees above pre-industrial level and that therefore concentration levels lower than 550 ppm CO2 should guide global limitation and reduction efforts. [...]”(1939^th Council meeting, Luxembourg, 25 June 1996)

•  “REAFFIRMS that, with a view to meeting the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [...] to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, overall global annual mean surface temperature increase should not exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels in order to limit high risks, including irreversible impacts of climate change;

RECOGNISES that 2°C would already imply significant impacts on ecosystems and water resources [...]”(2610th Council Meeting, Luxembourg, 14 October 2004 Council 2004, 25-26 March 2004)

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•  CO₂-changes in industry and energy only loosely related to environmental politics

•  Efficiency improvement rate is slowing down

EU: current environmental policies have 5% effect

EU climate policy

•  Extensive European Climate Change Programme

•  EU emission trading system

•  Monitoring mechanism fully implemented

•  Promotion and targets for renewable energy

•  Special stimuli for cogeneration

•  Directive on biofuels

•  Standards for energy performance in buildings

•  Regulations for Fluorinated gases

•  Eco-efficiency standards for products

•  (porposal) for a directive on energy end use efficiency

Future climate policy per world vision

Globalisation

•  Impasse

•  No climate agreement

•  Cap and trade

•  Multi-lateral regime

•  Environmental effectiveness

•  Emissions trading

•  Broadening participation

•  No coordinated action

•  Low target

•  Limited emissions trading

•  CDM continues

•  Bottom-up (technology)

•  Technology transfer

•  Economic effectiveness

•  Other priorities

•  Palette of types of action (menu)

Regionalisation

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Tensions and trade-offs: targets

•  Reliable versus affordable

–  Influence of market liberalisation? Low prices

and security of supply: do they go along?

•  Technology and reliability / security of

supply / clean

–  Will technology in a world with low prices for

fossil fuels develop towards environmental demands?

•  Safe and Clean versus affordable –  Internalisation of external costs?

Emission trading in practice: the case of NL en EU

Differences in attitude become apparent:

•  A1: wants high caps to keep the costs down (industry and LPF) AND reduce government intervention

•  A2: no negative effect on industry (vs. other world regions)

•  B1: will the ceilings be strict enough to attain envir.

Goals? Does it work?

•  B2: national authorities have too little influence, loss of local synergy

World visions on Emission trading

Basis principle of emission trading is supported from different world visions BUT with different motives:

•  A1: international approach and opportunities tot reduce costs

•  A2: rather not, but it enhances markets to work and could be applied regionally

•  B1: secure emission ceilings and opportunity for “just”

allocation of emission credits and obtain support from society for climate policy

European Emission trading system

•  ETS entered into force 25 October 2003 –  First compliance period 2005-2007 –  Second compliance period 2008-2012

•  Covers all 25 Member States –  Installing specific caps

–  Power and heat, refineries, chemical metal, paper and pulp industries, minerals; 11.400

installatations, 2.1 Gton CO2/yr –  4000 companies

–  Review autumn 2006

•  May link to schemes in Norway, US states, Japan

•  Link with CDM from 2005, with JI from 2008 (100 countries)

•  By far the largest cap&trade system ever

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Klimaatprobleem internationaal oplosbaar

The energy transition in world history 1850-2000

Share in primary energy use

…and one possible continuation to 2100: the B1 Global Cooperation future

Share in primary energy use

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National Policies Netherlands

•  Covenants with industry, changing to emission trading

•  Fiscal incentives for buying efficient cars

•  High energy efficiency standards for new buildings

•  Growing energy tax for non-industrial users (as from 1996)

•  Subsidy schemes for energy savings older buildings

•  fiscal incentives for renewables + subsidy

•  More instruments to reduce a.o. non CO2-greenhouse gases

CO₂-projections for the Netherlands

Faculty of Geosciences – Utrecht University Faculty of Geosciences – Utrecht University

Energiebesparing, kernenergie en CO2-opslag belangrijkste categorieën in 2020

-6% -15% -25%

Niveau 2010

Hernieuwbare energie CO2-opslag opwekking CO2-opslag processen WKK

Brandstofsubstitutie Rendement opwekking Kernenergie

Volume- en structuureffecten Besparing finaal OBG-opties

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Effect Broeikasgassen [Mton CO₂-eq]

reductie broeikasgassen

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Mogelijke emissiereducties in de sectoren

niveau

2010 -6% -15% -25%

reductie broeikasgassen

Effect Broeikasgassen [Mton CO₂-eq] Emissiereductie directe emissies naar sector in 2020 t.o.v.

referentiescenario in 2020

Kosten emissiereductie broeikasgassen meenemen

Uitsluiten opties is duur

Tegenvallers:

-  Ambitie 20 % biobrandstoffen in het verkeer kan niet worden waargemaakt -  EU besluitvorming CO2 –auto’s 2012 en 2020 nog niet afgerond !!

-  BPM-differentiatie personenauto’s geleidelijk.

-  Per saldo voor overige broeikasgassen hogere emissies

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Energievoorziening

Source: Van Vuuren 2007

Peak oil period

Peak gas period

Huge uncertainty

Pathways for major energy carriers 2007 TIMER/IMAGE model analysis

(Hirsch 2008) Is the ‘clock-like’ Hubbert-curve predicting a world

oil-peak soon?

2005

See www.peakoil.com

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Energie; olieprijs

: Afnemende verhouding zoeken / vinden

(IEA 2006/Everts 2008) Prospects for unconventional (liquid) energy carriers…

10% of 2000 oil production

Spanningen bij de biomassa-transitie

•  Keurmerken / fair-trade voor biomassa (B1)

•  Creëren van een wereldmarkt voor biomassa (A1)

•  Biomassa uit eigen regio / zelfvoor-ziening (B2)

•  Toepassing biomassa tegen zo laag mogelijke kosten (A2)

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Electricity from wind: locations and production costs in an A1- scenario by 2050 (Hoogwijk 2004)

Electricity from solar-PV: locations and production costs

(Hoogwijk 2004)

Areas suitable (i.e. generation cost < 0,1 $/kWh electricity) for Wind Solar-PV Biomass options

WSB (Wind Solar Biomass)options (elec&trp fuel) with interaction, A1 world 2050

(De Vries et al. 2007) Faculty of Geosciences – Utrecht University

Areas suitable (i.e. generation cost < 0,1 $/kWh electricity) for Wind Solar-PV Biomass options

WSB (Wind Solar Biomass)options (elec&trp fuel) with interaction, A2 world 2050

(De Vries et al. 2007)

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Duurzaamheid

Klimaat- en energiedoelen (beweegredenen)

Klimaat

•  VN (Rio de Janeiro, 1992): stabilisatie van de concentratie van broeikasgassen op niveau dat gevaarlijke menselijke invloed kan worden voorkomen

•  EU en NL: twee graden doelstelling Energiebesparing en hernieuwbare energie

•  betaalbaar (hoge olieprijzen)

•  voorzieningszekerheid (olie uit het Midden Oosten en aardgas uit Rusland)

•  duurzaam (luchtkwaliteit)

Meer inkomen leidt tot meer CO₂-emissie

Vogels broeden eerder,

vlinders trekken noordwaarts (waarnemingen)

Bron: Milieu- en Natuurcompendium

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Gezondheids-effecten o.a. toename ziekte van Lyme

Bron: RIVM

Mogelijke veranderingen in de beschikbaarheid van water over de hele wereld tegen het einde van de 21e eeuw

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Idealistisch / im-materieel

Uniformiteit Globalisering

Diversiteit Regionalisering Absoluut Idealisme

Kerk; institutionele religie Overheid; EU, UN Bureaucratie

Subjectief Idealisme Civil society Gedrag Sociaal Dilemma

Post-Modenisme Burger

Fort Europa Culturele blokken Conflict Modernisme

Consumptie Economie Vrije markt WTO Wetenschap

Technologie / Complexiteit

Uniformiteit Globalisering Centralisatie

Diversiteit Regionalisering Decentralisatie Idealistisch

Economische orientatie Hierarchische structuur Kosten-Baten Analyse Technische oplossingen Toenemende complexiteit

Decentralisatie:

- Electriciteit vz -Spoorwegen -Schiphol / Gatwick -Drinkwater Markt-preoccupatie Netwerkorganisatie Fragmentatie en verkokering Bestuur / Bureaucratie

Sociale orientatie Centrale Planning Blauwdrukken / Regelgeving Europees beleid

Organisatie op lokale schaal Gedrag / Sociaal dilemma Ecologie

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10 miljard

8 6 4 2

CO2

2000 2075 1800

Bevolking

Ecologie Economie

‘welvaart’

UNFCCC Climate negotiations

Klimaatbeleid

2

element: Broaden participation

UNFCCC Climate negotiations

Almost Business as Usual

Pathways

Triptych

Emission reductions

Costs

Klimaat- en energiedoelen

European Commission: at least 20% for the EU

30% reduction (unilateral) 20% reduction (unilateral) or 30% reduction (multi-lateral)

EU’s 2°C target

EU climate policy

Future climate policy per world vision

Tensions and trade-offs: targets

• Reliable versus affordable

– Influence of market liberalisation? Low prices

• Technology and reliability / security of

– Will technology in a world with low prices for

• Safe and Clean versus affordable – Internalisation of external costs?

World visions on Emission trading

Basis principle of emission trading is supported from different world visions BUT with different motives:

• A1: international approach and opportunities tot reduce costs

• A2: rather not, but it enhances markets to work and could be applied regionally

• B1: secure emission ceilings and opportunity for “just”

allocation of emission credits and obtain support from society for climate policy

European Emission trading system

National Policies Netherlands

Energievoorziening

Energie; olieprijs

Duurzaamheid

Klimaat- en energiedoelen (beweegredenen)

•  Reliable versus affordable

–  Influence of market liberalisation? Low prices

•  Technology and reliability / security of

–  Will technology in a world with low prices for

•  Safe and Clean versus affordable –  Internalisation of external costs?

•  A1: international approach and opportunities tot reduce costs

•  A2: rather not, but it enhances markets to work and could be applied regionally

•  B1: secure emission ceilings and opportunity for “just”