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Modelling global water stress a monthly time scale

2

Department of Geography

1

Department of Physical Geography

Y. Wada

1

, L.P.H. van Beek

1

, H. Dürr

1

, R. Weingartner

2

, D. Viviroli

2

, M.F.P. Bierkens

1

(r.vanbeek@geo.uu.nl)

H11-0802

Background and aim

Until now analyses on global water stress are based on yearly averages. But demand and availability are often out of phase.

Our aim: estimate global water stress at monthly time steps.

Methods

Availability for 1958-2001 calculated with global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB forced with CRU (downscaled with ERA40), including upstream water, reservoirs, desalinisation, groundwater abstraction and green water (i.e. soil water available for irrigated crops)

Demand (year 2000) consisting of agricultural (rainfed, irrigation, livestock), domestic and industrial water demand.

Green water availability Groundwater abstraction (source: IGRAC)

Comparison previous analyses

Comparison monthly and yearly

Monthly time steps Yearly time steps

Dynamic water stress

Based on insights from ecohydrology (Porporato et al., AWR, 2001) we can calculate a dynamic water stress measure based on duration, recurrence of stress and severity when in stress:

Some validation

Conclusion

Water stress from monthly analysis is more severe than from yearly analysis

Dynamic water stress distinguishes areas

with frequent and prolonged water stress

from those with incidental water stress

Referenties

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