31
Appendix
PWT vs. IMF economic growth
In most growth researches the initial GDP variable is from the same source as the dependant GDP growth variable. This setup has been used in the beginning of this research, and holds, as shows from Table 9. However, using the GDP growth from a different source (IMF) already led to a higher explanatory power of the model, as shows in Table 8.
R-squared 0.1787 Prob. > F 0 # of obs. 148
lnyPWT Coefficient Std. Err P>t
k -0.00104 0.000 0.015 n -0.89315 0.248 0.000 O 0.01457 0.006 0.014 sk 0.10292 0.045 0.025 ε 0.91166 0.254 0.000 R-squared 0.2388 Prob. > F 0 # of obs. 148
lnyPWT Coefficient Std. Err P>t
k -0.00030 0.001 0.593 n -1.08033 0.288 0.000 O 0.01892 0.006 0.002 sk 0.12014 0.044 0.008 sh 0.03369 0.020 0.101 lniu -0.01026 0.003 0.001 ε 1.04830 0.292 0.000
When additional variables from different sources than the Penn World Table 6.2 are added to the model, the PWT economic growth variable was found to have a rather high multicollinearity with the internet use, human capital, and initial GDP variable in particular (Table 10). By changing the dependant variable’s source, from PWT to IMF, the multicollinearity was greatly reduced. Therefore the choice has been made to use economic growth from a different source than initial GDP.
R-squared 0.2207 Prob. > F 0 # of obs. 148
lnyPWT Coefficient Std. Err P>t
k -0.00122 0.000 0.000 n -0.85307 0.193 0.000 O 0.01004 0.005 0.029 sk 0.09612 0.035 0.007 ε 0.89970 0.197 0.000 R-squared 0.2857 Prob. > F 0 # of obs. 148
lny Coefficient Std. Err P>t
k -0.00113 0.000 0.009 n -0.76986 0.223 0.001 O 0.01531 0.005 0.001 sk 0.10630 0.034 0.002 sh 0.04964 0.016 0.002 lniu -0.00688 0.002 0.005 ε 0.77452 0.226 0.001
Table 9; Regression, All Countries, PWT growth Table 8; Regression, All Countries, IMF growth
32
The investment variable
4th quartile of agricultural activities
Table 17; Regression, 4th quartile, [I]=[A] R-squared 0.0978 Prob. > F 0.0594 # of obs. 37 lny Coefficient P>t sk 0.10373 0.059 ε 0.02934 0
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev Min Max
ygr 37 4.92% 1.97% 1.89% 10.63% k 37 $ 18007 $ 9297 $ 709 $ 41388 n 37 0.91% 1.01% -0.76% 3.25% O 37 99.08% 63.36% 2.14% 300.95% sk 37 19.26% 7.49% 2.21% 33.70% sh 37 44.57% 23.80% 0.87% 85.12% iu 37 28.34% 16.74% 0.75% 58.65% Serv 37 66.01% 12.19% 37.10% 90.00% Manu 37 15.30% 6.73% 2.40% 28.40% Agri 37 2.20% 1.11% 0.10% 4.10% R-squared 0.3614 Prob. > F 0.0052 # of obs. 37 lny Coefficient P>t k -0.00094 0.030 n -0.87426 0.007 O 0.01137 0.017 sk -0.02643 0.624 ε -0.00094 0.030
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev Min Max
ygr 37 3.99% 2.62% -0.61% 9.94% k 37 $ 1,633 $ 1,195 $ 459 $ 5,207 n 37 2.29% 0.76% 0.04% 3.38% O 37 66.48% 40.57% 11.61% 253.88% sk 37 9.14% 7.56% 2.84% 44.99% sh 37 5.00% 7.16% 0.36% 37.80% iu 37 1.37% 2.41% 0.14% 14.32% Serv 37 41.40% 10.34% 19.90% 58.20% Manu 37 9.17% 4.40% 3.30% 21.50% Agri 37 35.13% 9.19% 22.70% 61.80% R-squared 0.156 Prob. > F 0.2318 # of obs. 37 lny Coefficient P>t k -0.00511 0.175 n -0.46054 0.489 O -0.00431 0.714 sk 0.11118 0.063 ε 0.51095 0.458 R-squared 0.2264 Prob. > F 0 # of obs. 148 sk Coefficient Std. Err P>t Agri -0.26634 0.041 0.000 ε 17.87438 0.832 0.000
Table 12; Descriptives, 1st quartile, agricultural
Table 13; Regression, 1st quartile, agric
Table 14; Descriptives, 4th quartile, agricultural
Table 15; Regression, 4th quartile, agric
33
Tertiary education, internet use, and hosts
In order to find out whether there is a relation between internet use and tertiary education enrollment a regression has been run in which [ta] is the dependant variable, and [lniu] is the independent variable.
R-squared 0.5739 Prob. > F 0 # of obs. 148 sh Coefficient Std. Err P>t lniu 0.10123 0.007 0.087 ε 0.56909 0.026 0.518 R-squared 0.2687 Prob. > F 0 # of obs. 144 sh Coefficient Std. Err P>t hosts 0.21011 0.029 0.000 ε 0.20917 0.017 0.000
34
Growth explaining concepts
Although thousands of researches has been done, the most influential researches have been compared in Table 20. Concepts not directly related to growth theory in section “2.1 Neoclassical growth theory” have been omitted. Examples of these are; democracy indexes, geographical indexes, stability indexes and so on.
Table 20; Overview of Growth concepts
Author Initial
GDP
Pop Growth Human Cap Openness Inv
Barro, 1991 -* -* Net fertility > 4 yr old28 +* Prim & Sec Enrollment
+ Market Dist. as
PPP
n.a.
Levine & Renelt, 1992 -* Robust29 -* Robust30 Pop growth +* Robust30 Sec. Enr. + Fragile exports + Robust Mankiw, Romer & Weil,
1992 - - + n.a. + Sala-i-Martin, 1997 -* Not significant Pop growth +* Life expec. &
Prim Enr
+ # years open econ.
+
Sachs & Warner, 1997
- +
Eco active pop growth + Life expec + Index open n.a. Doppelhofer, 2000 - Strongly & Robust Not robust Pop growth + Robust Prim, Life +
Strong & Robust31 n.a.
Fernandez, Ley & Steel, 2001
Most relev (1,00)
Not relevant Life exp = 0,95 Pri=0,18
# yr = 0,50 Exp = not relev.
Equipm. Relevant
Variable Sources
Various sources for the concepts found in Table 20 have been researched for their fit. An overview of the sources researched for the final set of variables is displayed in Table 21.
Table 21; Overview of researched sources
ygr k n O sk sh iu
IMF X X X
Penn World Table X
- Penn WT CGDP X X X X - Penn WT RGDPL X X X X Statistique Canada X X World Bank X UN X ITU / UN X
28 Net fertility = Birth rate – mortality for children up to 4 yr
29 Only when Secondary school enrollment rate is included in the regression 30 Only when Political Instability is included in the regression
35
Datasets
Included countries, all country dataset
Albania Denmark Kyrgyz Republic Russia
Algeria Djibouti Lao People's Democratic Republic Rwanda
Argentina Dominican Republic Latvia Samoa
Armenia Egypt Lebanon Saudi Arabia
Australia El Salvador Lesotho Senegal
Austria Equatorial Guinea Lithuania Serbia
Azerbaijan Eritrea Luxembourg Sierra Leone
Bahrain Estonia Madagascar Slovak Republic
Bangladesh Ethiopia Malawi Slovenia
Barbados Fiji Malaysia South Africa
Belarus Finland Mali Spain
Belgium France Malta St. Lucia
Belize Gabon Mauritania Sudan
Benin Gambia, The Mauritius Suriname
Bolivia Georgia Mexico Swaziland
Botswana Ghana Moldova Sweden
Brazil Greece Mongolia Switzerland
Bulgaria Guatemala Morocco Tajikistan
Burkina Faso Guinea Mozambique Tanzania
Burundi Guinea-Bissau Namibia Thailand
Cambodia Guyana Nepal Togo
Cameroon Honduras Netherlands Tonga
Canada Hong Kong SAR New Zealand Trinidad and Tobago
Cape Verde Hungary Nicaragua Tunisia
Central African Republic Iceland Niger Uganda
Chad India Nigeria Ukraine
Chile Indonesia Norway United Arab Emirates
China Iran, Islamic Republic of Oman United Kingdom
Colombia Ireland Pakistan United States
Comoros Italy Panama Uruguay
Congo, Democratic Republic of Jamaica Papua New Guinea Uzbekistan
Congo, Republic of Japan Paraguay Vanuatu
Costa Rica Jordan Peru Venezuela
Côte d'Ivoire Kazakhstan Philippines Vietnam
Croatia Kenya Poland Yemen, Republic of
Cyprus Korea Portugal Zambia
36 Included countries, All countries, 2002 ~ 2006
Albania Djibouti Lebanon Romania
Algeria Egypt Lesotho Rwanda
Argentina El Salvador Lithuania Saudi Arabia
Armenia Eritrea Luxembourg Senegal
Australia Estonia Madagascar Sierra Leone
Austria Finland Malawi Slovak Republic
Azerbaijan France Malaysia Slovenia
Bahrain Gambia, The Mali South Africa
Bangladesh Georgia Malta Spain
Belarus Ghana Mauritania Swaziland
Belgium Greece Mauritius Sweden
Bolivia Honduras Mexico Switzerland
Botswana Hong Kong SAR Moldova Tajikistan
Brazil Hungary Mongolia Tanzania
Bulgaria Iceland Morocco Thailand
Burkina Faso India Mozambique Tonga
Burundi Indonesia Namibia Trinidad and Tobago
Cambodia Iran, Islamic Republic of Nepal Tunisia
Cameroon Ireland Netherlands Uganda
Canada Italy New Zealand Ukraine
Cape Verde Jamaica Nicaragua United Arab Emirates
Chile Japan Nigeria United Kingdom
China Jordan Norway United States
Colombia Kazakhstan Oman Uruguay
Comoros Kenya Panama Vanuatu
Costa Rica Korea Paraguay Venezuela
Croatia Kuwait Peru Vietnam
Cyprus Kyrgyz Republic Philippines Yemen, Republic of
Czech Republic Lao People's Democratic Republic Poland Zimbabwe
Denmark Latvia Portugal
Descriptives, All countries, 2002 ~ 2006
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
37 Included countries Service-based Economies dataset
Albania Estonia Lithuania Senegal
Australia Fiji Luxembourg Slovak Republic
Austria Finland Madagascar Slovenia
Bahrain France Malta South Africa
Barbados Georgia Mauritius Spain
Belgium Greece Mexico St. Lucia
Belize Guatemala Morocco Suriname
Bulgaria Honduras Namibia Sweden
Canada Hong Kong SAR Netherlands Switzerland
Cape Verde Hungary New Zealand Tonga
Costa Rica Iceland Nicaragua Tunisia
Côte d'Ivoire Ireland Norway Ukraine
Croatia Italy Panama United Kingdom
Cyprus Jamaica Peru United States
Czech Republic Japan Poland Uruguay
Denmark Jordan Portugal Vanuatu
Djibouti Korea Romania Zambia
Dominican Republic Latvia Russia
El Salvador Lebanon Samoa
Included countries, Economies with a high level of manufacturing activities dataset
Argentina Egypt Lithuania Serbia
Armenia El Salvador Madagascar Slovak Republic
Austria Estonia Malaysia Slovenia
Bahrain Fiji Malta South Africa
Bangladesh Finland Mauritius Spain
Belarus Georgia Mexico Swaziland
Belgium Honduras Moldova Sweden
Bolivia Hungary Morocco Switzerland
Bulgaria India Mozambique Tajikistan
Cambodia Indonesia New Zealand Thailand
Canada Ireland Nicaragua Tunisia
Chile Italy Pakistan Ukraine
China Japan Peru United Kingdom
Colombia Jordan Philippines Uruguay
Costa Rica Kazakhstan Poland Venezuela
Côte d'Ivoire Korea Portugal Vietnam
Croatia Kyrgyz Republic Romania Zimbabwe
Czech Republic Lao People's Democratic Republic Russia
