The influence of fluctuations of consumer
confidence on mind-set metrics in the Dutch
automobile industry
Thesis Defense Stephan Hoving
Academic relevance
● Black-box of mind-set metrics in combination with marketing-mix variables
● New context (durables)
Previous research
● Increased predictive validity if mind-set metrics are included (Srinivasan et al., 2010)
● Mind-set metrics mediate the relationship between advertising and sales (Hanssens et al., 2014)
● Advertising increases brand equity (Huang & Sarigollu, 2014)
● Consumer behavior changes with the state of the
Research questions
● What is the influence of advertising on mind-set metrics?
● What is the influence of mind-set metrics on sales levels?
● How does the relationship between advertising and
mind-set metrics, and mind-set metrics and sales levels change during contractions of consumer confidence
compared to expansions?
Conceptual Model
Methodology
● Mind-set metrics (based on AIDA model):
○ Advertising awareness
○ Consideration
○ Preference
○ Economic Preference
● Different car categories (based on 25 brands) ● Two methods to generalize (Added Z method or
Pooling data)
Results
● Pooling not allowed → overall results using Added Z method
● Multicollinearity problems:
○ robustness checks (monthly level/dummy variable) ● Split data method (normal mediation test):
○ growth/decline periods
Results (overall results)
● Positive relationship between advertising and sales ● Only awareness mediates relationship between
advertising and sales
● Advertising positively influences awareness and consideration
Results (growth/decline periods)
● During decline periods advertising elasticities are (slightly) higher
Conclusion
● Indication of hierarchy
● Advertising influences mind-set metrics, no sales conversion:
o Ability to buy cars
o Long purchase cycle
● Consumer confidence influences awareness:
o Information search behavior
o Cheaper products within category
Limitations & further research
● Short time period
● One marketing-mix variable ● Intermediate product category ● Different channels
