Todaro’s migration theory and Lynch’s rural-urban
interactions model applied to West Africa
Case studies: Mali and Senegal
Master thesis Kim Groen International Relations and International Organisations
Rijksuniversiteit Groningen S145881 First supervisor (Faculty of Arts): F. Joustra Second supervisor (Faculty of Spatial Sciences): A. Bailey
Index
Introduction 4
Chapter I: Theoretical framework 7
1.1 Todaro’s theory about migration : rural-urban wage differentials 7
1.1.1 Development of Todaro’s theory 7
1.1.2 Review of Todaro’s theory 11
1.2 Lynch’s model about migration: rural-urban interactions 14
1.2.1 Development of Lynch’s model 17
1.2.2 Review of Lynch’s model 18
Chapter II: Migration trends in West Africa 20
2.1 Differences between the pre-colonial period and colonial period 20
2.2 Migration after decolonisation 21
2.3 Current migration trends and ECOWAS-convention 22
Chapter III: Urbanisation trends in West Africa 27
3.1 Differences between the pre-colonial period and colonial period 27
3.2 Urbanisation after decolonisation 27
3.3 Current urbanisation trends 29
Chapter IV: Approach case studies 31
4.1 Justification of case studies 31
4.2 Approach, variables and assumptions of Todaro’s model 34 4.3 Approach, variables and assumptions of Lynch’ model 37
Chapter V: Case study Mali -Todaro 39
5.1 Informal and formal sector 39
5.2 Characteristics 40
5.3 Reasons 41
5.4 Type of migration 42
Chapter VI: Case study Senegal -Todaro 45
6.1 Informal and formal sector 45
6.2 Characteristics 45
6.3 Reasons 47
6.4 Type of migration 47
6.5 Internal and international migration 48
Chapter VII: Case study Mali - Lynch
7.1 Flows of food 51
7.2 Flows of people 52
7.3 Flows of finance 53
7.4 Flows of ideas 54
Chapter VIII: Case study Senegal - Lynch 56
8.1 Flows of food 56 8.2 Flows of people 56 8.3 Flows of finance 57 8.4 Flows of ideas 58 Conclusion 61 Bibliography 64 Annex 68
Introduction
‘Being poor is not a precondition for becoming a migrant’
Sadio Traoré (Bamako, 2009) Migration is not a new phenomenon. While this is an obvious statement, the public debate and discussions in the media have sparked since 11 September 2001. The discussion about immigration, whether illegal or legal, European or African-based, and its financial or human consequences for departure and destination countries, is highly present in contemporary society. At a higher level, diplomats discuss how to handle migration from Africa to Europe, with a renewed interest for the relation between migration and development. An example is cooperation between regional organisations such as the European Union and the African Union While this link will be briefly discussed in this thesis, the main focus is on the application of two theories on recent migration and urbanisation patterns in West Africa. West Africa is one of the fastest urbanising regions in the world, while the recent urbanisation grade is low compared to the same world regions. Migration, a pre-colonial phenomenon, could contribute to this process but its exact share is debated. The direction and form of migration is another point of discussion. This thesis tries to prove the accuracy of a neo-classical migration theory and of a rural-urban interaction model, using two countries in West Africa as case studies. The main question is therefore ‘to what extent could Todaro’s migration theory and Lynch’s rural-urban interactions model be applied to recent developments in West Africa, using the case studies of Mali and Senegal’. The next chapters will chronologically answer this main question by dividing it into four sub questions:
a) what do the two theories imply, what criticism have they received and how do the theories differ from each other;
b) what are the main developments in migration flows and urbanisation processes in West Africa from a historical perspective;
c) to what extent could Todaro’s migration theory be applied to Mali and Senegal;
d) to what extent could Lynch’s rural-urban interactions model be applied to Mali and Senegal.
tries to incorporate much of the criticism on the first theory in a broader model. The differences between the two theories are great since the older, neo-classical theory is considered to be one-sided, while the newer model assumes interdependence within and between flows as a core feature of the model. This additional value forms another reason for choosing them. While I want to compare these two streams in migration theory, they also should focus on rural-urban flows. This leads me to choose the two theories described hereunder. However, both models have received criticism from different angles which shall also be discussed in the same chapter.
Michael Todaro’s wrote his migration theory in 1969 and within the field of development theories, he was the first to use a neo-classical migration theory based on expectations instead of actual differences.1 The neo-classical theory implies a rational, economic cost-benefit analysis on an individual basis. It differs from the previous classical migration theory, according to which migration is only based on differences in actual wages. This previous approach could not explain why migration continued in the presence of high urban unemployment figures. Therefore, Todaro has complemented the cost-benefit-analysis with the probability of getting a job within a certain period. This leads to an expected or perceived income, on which a prospective migrant bases its decision to migrate or not and where to. According to Todaro, the main direction of migration flows is therefore rural-to-urban because a rural migrant expects a higher income in the capital. Todaro’s theory is often contradicted in the literature since neo-classical theories were neglecting non-economic motives.
The rural-urban connection is also made by Kenneth Lynch in his 2005 model. The choice for this theory stems from the fact that, in contrast to Todaro, Lynch does not focus on only one direction of migration flows but on the interdependence between rural and urban areas. It also criticises the distinction between ‘rural’ and ‘urban’. Moreover, his model combines all new insights by migration theorists without focusing on particular flows or directions. The cost-benefit analysis does not figure in Lynch’s model since economic reasons are accompanied by social, political or cultural motives to migrate. Moreover, as opposed to an individual decision by a potential migrant, Lynch states that the household is the main decision-making actor. Another difference is that Todaro’s theory could be easier applied to internal and international migration, while Lynch’s theory is mainly confined to internal
migration. However, some of his assumptions do include international elements such as remittances, flows of ideas and mobility in itself.
Having explained both theories and their criticism, it is necessary to look at migration and urbanisation patterns throughout history. Chapters II and III provide the historical context for recent developments in migration and urbanisation in West Africa, including Mali and Senegal. A time division is made between pre-colonial, colonial and recent developments. Whether the case studies are representative for West Africa, should follow from the next chapters.
Chapter IV contains a justification of the case studies. It also includes the approach of testing the theories on the case studies. The essence of the thesis follows in chapter V until VIII. These chapters elaborate the application of the theories on the case studies. The theories will be analysed following a number of assumptions that were chosen for their importance according to the theorists or for their feasibility, considering the availability of data and literature.
The conclusion answers the main question. The hypothesis is that the neo-classical theory by Todaro is outdated, since it received much criticism. A narrow look on migration, driven by economic considerations and mainly one-way, cannot explain complex migration flows which move in different directions. I assume the second model is more accurate since it combines new insights, taking into consideration the criticism on the previous theory.
Chapter I: Theoretical framework
1.1 Todaro’s theory about migration : rural-urban wage differentials
1.1.1 Development of Todaro’s theory2
The most recent version of the theory of Michael Todaro about migration in the developing world dates from 1997. It was based on the neo-classical Todaro model from 1969 and those outlines still formed the point of departure for his more recent publications. According to Todaro, the existent literature on migration had overlooked the negative indirect and secondary effects of migration on urban employment.
The point of departure in the 1969 migration model was formed by perceived differences between expected rural income and expected urban income by individual migrants. This explained the continuation of rural-to-urban migration despite high unemployment in the cities. The decision to migrate depended on several, but mainly economic factors. The expected income formed the outcome of the individual consideration of the actual income in the city or town, the chance of getting a job over time and finally the costs of migrating. This income had to be compared with the expected revenues which would have been gathered by staying in the rural area instead. If the sum of the expected financial outcome was positive, the rural individual migrated. An example: a rural worker would probably migrate if he expected to earn €60 per month at home and €120 in an urban area. Only when the urban unemployment rate would increase to 50 % or higher, migrating would not be advantageous anymore.
Figure 1. Conceptual presentation of Todaro’s migration theory
Source: own presentation
2 This paragraph is based on the two following sources, unless otherwise mentioned. M. Todaro, International
migration, domestic unemployment and urbanization: a three-sector model, Working Paper Population Council (1986) 5-21; M. Todaro, Urbanization, unemployment and migration in Africa: theory and policy, Working Paper Population Council (New York 1997).
Following this logic, a government policy aiming at the creation of urban jobs could have an adverse effect. As the city would attract a larger number of rural migrants than the number of (formal) urban jobs created by the new policy, it could result in a higher unemployment rate. Moreover, there would be secondary costs concerning the (physical) expansion of basic services like housing, education, health services, infrastructure and sanitation. It also lowered rural output, assuming a shortage of labour in rural areas, since most migrants were young and hard working.
His theory evolved in 1986, adding an international aspect to his theory based on the same expected income differential. Like internal migration, international migration too had ambiguous effects on the level of unemployment in the departing country. It was generally thought that this type of migration decreased the high unemployment rate in countries with labour emigrants. Todaro denied however that international legal short-term migration was benefiting the departure country by lowering the unemployment level. Paradoxically, emigration would cause a rise of the urban unemployment level. This conclusion follows from the assumption that international migration was a step-wise migration. This meant that a rural migrant first left for the city or town nearby, then migrated to the city and eventually crossed an international border. New rural migrants would arrive in the city hoping to fill up their work places, adding to the already great number of earlier arrived rural workers.
Todaro concluded that should the availability of foreign jobs rise, national urban unemployment should rise as well. Following the solution offered by Todaro to reduce rural-to-urban migration, governments should create employment centres in secondary cities or rural areas. These centres should prevent rural individuals to migrate to the (primary) cities by reducing the income differential.Nevertheless, Todaro acknowledged the positive impact of migration on the national level of unemployment. Moreover, he mentioned non-economic reasons to migrate like information from friends or relatives, the urge to experience the modern city or frustration about being underemployed. In general, however, economic considerations motivated the individual decision to migrate.
In 1997, Todaro combined the two previous publications in his working paper for the Population Council named Urbanisation, unemployment and migration in Africa: theory and
consequence of emigration and the result of the first three principles: migration continued even if the urban unemployment rate was high. This was rational and in accordance with the logic of the previous elements.
Following the migration model, Todaro discussed urban growth, its consequences and causes. Rural-to-urban migration contributed to urban growth, as well as population growth. Todaro also underscored the (ir)responsibility of governments for designing an apt policy for growing cities. Precisely the policy emphasis on industrialisation, the development of technology, and the growth of the already heavily populated cities made the urban areas an attractive alternative for rural individuals.
Most of these governments also acknowledged that high urban growth was unacceptable and they wanted to tackle rural-to-urban migration. The disadvantages of urban growth, being costly services, environmental damage or increased crime rates, would undo the advantages such as externalities or economies of scale.3 I conclude from this point of view that the first major challenge for developing countries to tackle urban growth was to slow down the movement of people from rural to urban areas.
Rural-to-urban migration expanded economic en non-economic imbalances, originating from colonial times, in two ways. On the one hand, it resulted in an urban labour surplus and a loss of human capital in rural areas. On the other hand, labour-intensive technologies were unavailable in the urban sector, it needed more resource inputs and terms of employment were higher. This meant that a significant increase of jobs was not needed, too costly or impossible. In this way, developing countries could experience economic growth without a declining unemployment rate. Analysing migration was therefore of major importance to understand the underdevelopment of Africa. Migration in excess of urban labour demand was a cause as well as a consequence of this underdevelopment.
Besides rural-to-urban migration, Todaro also included the informal sector in his analysis of migration. This sector absorbed surplus labour from the formal labour market, implying a lower productivity and income in the informal sector. A rural migrant normally ended up in the informal sector after he failed to find a formal job. Even though working and living conditions in the city could be the same as in the village, or just slightly better, it
continued to attracts rural migrants. The informal sector was therefore in many cases very sizeable, with an average of 50% of the total labour force.4
Although Todaro acknowledged the positive features of the informal sector, he also mentioned several disadvantages. These varied from environmental damage to again a potential increase of the urban unemployment. If the informal sector would be stimulated by legalisation and economic promotion of its activities, unemployment policy could counteract its original intentions, following the above mentioned reasoning.
Having discussed the reasoning of Todaro’s migration theory, it is necessary to look at the migrants themselves. Todaro distinguished several general characteristics such as demographic, educational and economic features. The first demographic characteristic was that migrants, moth women and men, were typically between 15 and 24 years old. Todaro also pointed at a new development. In some regions more woman than men migrated, for social, familial or even economic reasons. These new developments of the type of typical migrant and their reasons for migrating were of importance to Todaro. In general, however, the majority of migrants were male.
A second feature was education since Todaro found a positive correlation between the level of education and migration. The higher the level of education a person enjoyed, the greater the probability that person would migrate, other factors being equal. He concluded that given a high unemployment rate, individuals who had only completed primary school would less likely migrate than their higher educated contemporaries. Again, expectations were decisive for a potential migrant to migrate or stay.
A third characteristic of a migrant was his or her high level of poverty, since people in rural areas were generally very poor. Nevertheless, they did not all originate from the same socio-economic class. Overall, economic considerations were the primary cause of migration, taking into account push and pull factors.
The policy implications of his theory were first of all that unemployment policy could actually cause an increase of unemployment. The informal sector played a mayor role because it could absorb a part of the wave of rural migrants looking for work in the cities. Although Todaro contradicted himself on this point, governments should therefore acknowledge and promote the informal sector. Directly or indirectly, economic policy influenced migration
flows by affecting rural and urban incomes. The difference between rural and urban wages should decline and more attention was needed to the creation of rural jobs, especially those that were labour-intensive.
There should also be less excessive investment in post-primary education, given that more than once pupils became unemployed because of their huge numbers. Finally, Todaro mentioned a desirable reduction of population growth by family planning, health services and the policy advices mentioned above.
1.1.2 Review of Todaro’s theory
One of Todaro’s main observations, namely continuing rural-urban migration in a situation of high urban unemployment, is not refuted by other researchers. But the causes of this movement, its precise consequences and other types of migration generate much debate within the field of migration studies. Difficulties surrounding this debate are the lack of reliable and comparable data over longer periods, the mixed use of the terms ‘urban growth’ and ‘urbanisation’, and different definitions or thresholds of urban and rural areas. The criticisers of Todaro’s migration model can be grouped around seven elements.
The first element which groups different criticisers are those adhering to the ‘new economics of labour migration view’. They criticise the element of individual decision-making since the whole household or family decides which member of the family migrates.5 The benefits for the family, for example financial remittances, depend on the investments in the migrant in the form of education and social networks. Migration is thus seen as a collective action with a gender dimension: migration of women stems more likely from a communal decision than men.6 A cost-benefit analysis could be positive for the household or family. Therefore a member can become a migrant even when his individual analysis is negative.
A second group of criticisers shares the assumption that the dual economy model and Todaro’s focus on economic motivations of migrants are wrong. According to Christophe Guilmoto and Frédéric Sandron, the limited micro-economy model which differentiates between the formal and informal sector should be enlarged. They find the costs of migrating to be decisive for migrants, whether these are economic, social, cultural or psychological. The
5 S. Castles, M.J. Miller, The age of migration. International population movements in the modern world (New York 2009) 24.
distance of most migrations is therefore short.7 Todaro’s economic approach lacks a realistic application since mobility of migrants is limited by political, family or social factors.8 This implies that expected wage differentials between regions or countries are not as important as Todaro claims. According to Alden Speace, Todaro treats workers in the informal sector as unemployed, but the informal sector and unemployment cannot be used synonymously. An income in the informal sector could even be higher than in the formal sector. This makes it economically rational to stay in the informal sector, while Todaro views the formal sector as a logical next step for a migrant.9
A third element in Todaro’s theory which has been criticised, is that rural-urban migration together with population growth are the main causes of urbanisation. But Chris Beauchemin and Philippe Bocquier claim that besides natural growth and migration, reclassification greatly contributes to urban growth in Africa. This means that when a village passes a certain threshold, say 10.000 inhabitants, it becomes urban. This does not automatically implies that more migrants are entering the city but it does add to the general national picture of urban growth. Between 1950 and 1980, more than one fourth of the growth of urban areas can be ascribed to reclassification, which was much higher than in other world regions. Moreover, when one focuses at the share of natural growth in total urban growth, it appeared to be 75% in the 1980s. This is also much higher than in other world regions.10 The
contribution of rural-urban migration to urban growth is not as straightforward as Todaro presents it and it is certainly not the dominating factor. Although he states that population growth also adds to urban growth, he does not support this by quantitative research. His policy implications therefore focus on indirect or direct solutions for rural-to urban migration. According to Beauchemin and Bocquier, this would only settle part of the problems associated with urban growth.
A fourth element that has been widely contradicted, is the supposed direction of migration. According to Todaro, step-wise migration is the most common pattern.11 But Beauchemin and Bocquier see a more complex process. They contradict that rural migrants come from nearby areas, as is assumed by the step-wise model. Migrants in secondary cities
7 C.Z. Guilmoto and F. Sandron, Migration et développement (Paris 2003) 27-29.
8 A. Dang, S. Goldstein and J. McNally, ‘Internal Migration and Development in Vietnam’, International Migration Review 31 (1997) 2 312-337, q.v. 312.
9 A. Speace Jr, ‘Internal Migration in Developing Countries. By Michael P. Todaro’, International Migration
Review 11 (1977) 2 248-249, q.v. 248-249. Although this review is based on an 1976 article from Todaro, Speace’s criticism is also applicable to the Working Paper from 1986, discussed above.
10 C. Beauchemin and P. Bocquier, ‘Migration and urbanization in Francophone West Africa: a review of recent empirical evidence’, Développement et insertion internationale (2003) 7.
originate from rural areas as well as from capitals. Moreover, the major type of rural out-migration is international out-migration and not internal out-migration to bigger towns.12 This questions again Todaro’s unambiguous emphasis on internal rural-to-urban migration.
Return migration from abroad and urban-to-rural migration are sparsely mentioned by Todaro while their share in total migration is rising. Return migration partly depends on age, since older migrants born in rural areas often return to retire, inherit land or real estate or to take care of the family. Nowadays, young people return too. City children who fail at school can return to the village to look for a job or are even sent back to the village schoolhouse.13
A fifth point of criticism considers the demographic characteristics of migrants. Todaro sees rural migrants as a self-selected group with general characteristics such as age and gender that differ from non-migrating rural people. Todaro describes migrants as young, between 15 and 30 years old. Data shows however that less and less youngsters between 15 and 19 years old become economically active because of their increasing enrolment at school over time.14 Moreover, more adults migrate, whether they return to the village or depart from it, so the age-bracket is moving up.15 The sex of migrants has also been debated. As Todaro has mentioned, in some regions rural-to-urban migrants are more often female than male. This corresponds with research within West Africa.16 But Guilmoto and Sandron contradict this in general terms. They first confirm that migration costs are especially low for singles, consequently they are highly mobile. However, single muslim women are an exception because they constitute a risk for the reputation of the family, limiting their mobility. They conclude with Todaro that a typical migrant is a young, educated and single male, however they do not agree with his hierarchy of motivations.17
The sixth element of Todaro’s theory that has provoked debate, is regarding to economic characteristics. Todaro assumes that migrants have less chances on the labour market, consequently their unemployment rate should be higher than non-migrants. Empirical
12 Beauchemin, ‘Migration and urbanization’ 9-10. 13 Idem 10.
14 The world’s youth 2006 data sheet’, Population Reference Bureau,
<http://www.prb.org/pdf06/WorldsYouth2006DataSheet.pdf> (2006; accessed on 7-5-2009) 18. In 1990, the percentage of economically active boys and girls in Africa (average, assuming an equal male-female division) was 53,5%. In 2005, this percentage decreased to 50%. For Sub-Sahara Africa, the percentages are respectively 58,5% and 54,5%. For Northern Europe, the percentages are 51,5% and 38%. See database International Labour Organisation, <http://laborsta.ilo.org/> (accessed on 6-8-2009).
15 Interview with Gouro Diallo, Groupe Recherche-Action pour le développement (GRAD), Bamako (26-5-2009). He works as a consultant.
research in seven West African countries reverses this image. Especially for young migrants, unemployment rates in the informal sector are the same as for their peers born in the city.18
A final point of criticism is again related to characteristics of migrants, namely to education. The general educational feature of migrants is that the more years of schooling they received, the higher the chances they will migrate to urban areas. Urban-to-rural migration is also practised by high educated individuals. While Todaro is mainly concerned with the opposite type of migration, his assumption could be correct.
Todaro’s migration model clearly received more criticism than approval. The denunciation of several key elements of his theory such as the individualistic, economic motive for migration, the one-sided direction of migration flows, and typical migrant characteristics, may make this model appear to be outdated. However, several components of his theory have been recognised by other researchers. As we have seen, the lack or negligence of Todaro of the previous mentioned aspects of migration, are discussed by different authors in different articles.
Kenneth Lynch tries to incorporate much of this criticism, but not all, in his model on rural-urban interactions, which sets him aside of other, previous mentioned, authors. He distinguishes between different flows but more importantly, he underscores the interdependence within and between those flows. Thus, in contrast to Todaro, he underlines the two-sided character of flows, such as flows of people, complemented by flows of food, finance, ideas, and natural flows. These flows also influence each other since they are mutually dependent. Examples of this will follow in the chapters VII and VIII. Moreover, Lynch has changed the level of decision-making from an individual decision-making process by Todaro to a household decision-making process. This also changes the motives of migration to non-economic reasons, which forms an additional improvement of Todaro’s theory, considering the criticisers. Summarising, Lynch fills many lacks in Todaro’s theory by building a more elaborate model which focuses on rural-urban linkages.
1.2 Lynch’s model about migration: rural-urban interactions
1.2.1 Development of Lynch’s model19
Kenneth Lynch expounds his theory about rural-urban interactions in his 2005 book
Rural-urban interactions in a developing world. His earlier research was oriented towards
18 Beauchemin, ‘Migration and urbanization’ 14-15.
urban agriculture in African cities in which he first used the multidisciplinary approach that he continued to use in his 2005 work on classification of rural-urban interactions.20 Lynch dissociates five types of flows between rural and urban areas namely food, natural flows, people, finance and ideas. These movements work in both directions. Lynch ideas about migration and urbanisation are of importance to development studies and development organisations, stressing the need to integrate rural and urban development programs and policies.
The essence of his book is the interdependence between rural and urban areas, based on the five flows mentioned above. Most literature was urban biased or focused on physical aspects of both areas and where they meet. This meant for example that the physical and natural characteristics of the peri-urban interface, where urban and rural meet, were being studied instead of the two-way movements of for example ideas and finances. Due to the interdependence, he also states that the distinction between ‘rural’ and ‘urban’ is false. Nevertheless, for descriptive purposes, he uses the two terms in his model and so will I.
Figure 2. Conceptual presentation of Lynch’s rural-urban interactions model
Source: own adaption of figure 1.1 from Lynch, Rural-urban interaction, 6.
Lynch warns the reader for making comparisons between countries. Categorisation of people into rural and urban boxes is surrounded with difficulties as well as the use of standard or formal definitions of rural and urban areas which can differ per organisation or country. Lynch himself defines urban growth as ‘the absolute growth in the number of people living in cities and towns’.21 Urbanisation on the other hand is a ‘relative change in the proportion of
people living in towns and cities as apposed to rural areas’.22 This also refers to the influence of urban processes on rural culture, economy and society.
20 K. Lynch, T. Binns, E. Olofin, ‘Urban agriculture under threat: the land security question in Kano, Nigeria’, <http://www.cityfarmer.org/kano.html> (2000; accessed on 11-08-2009); T. Binns, K. Lynch, ‘Feeding Africa's growing cities into the 21st century : the potential of urban agriculture, Journal of international development 10 (1998) 6, 777-793.
Interestingly, Lynch notices an upheaval in thinking about urbanisation. The writers of the Brundlandt report Our common future had a fairly positive view of this phenomenon in the 1980s, linking it to development and economic growth. This evolved in the following thirty years to a more negative association with food insecurity, environmental pollution and rising unemployment. Lynch affirms the actual situation in the developing world as it is experiencing an unprecedented urban growth. Urban growth and urbanisation are nevertheless seen from a particular view by existent literature, which does not take into account the diversity of motivations and directions of flows. Positive and negative consequences for rural and urban areas as well as interdependent connections between them are underexposed.
Focusing on the movement of people between rural and urban areas, Lynch states that the course of flows and other types of migration are less often considered in the literature. These other types are step-wise migration, circulatory migration, cyclical migration (seasonal migration), multi-locational households and chain migration. Shortly after independence, rural-to-urban migration contributed greatly to the growth of urban areas in Africa. Nowadays, natural growth is the biggest contributor. Since the orthodox models of migration focus on only one direction of movements of people, rural inhabitants seem to depend at least financially on urban migrants. Other types of revenues are not abundantly researched. This leads to a shortcoming in migration studies of the different linkages between rural and urban areas.
The first of these linkages is the movement of people. Cyclical movement, often a search for seasonal employment, is of great importance to the migrant and his household for several reasons that differ in time and per region. They vary from securing land tenure by returning to the village, to saving food in the rural area by leaving the household. Economic motives cannot explain all flows of migration. Decisions are often taken by the household. The education system is sometimes oriented towards urban jobs which are more remunerating than rural jobs. Moreover, environmental reasons, being short or long term hazards, can push migrants to the cities. In addition, governmental policy can be concentrated on a reduction of the migration flows to the cities. This can be achieved by agrarian reform or by moving people to deserted rural areas, sometimes in controversial or unsuccessful ways.23
A second element, and one of the most critical elements linking the countryside and the cities, is the flow of food. Food is cultivated, traded, commercialised and marketed between the two areas. Flows of food go in either direction, including to and from the peri-urban area. Urban agriculture is not a new phenomenon, dating at least from the 1930s, but only recently it received more scientific attention. No definite judgement can yet be made about the overall effects of agriculture in the city on rural areas.
A third element of rural-urban interactions are natural flows. Migration to urban areas can increase local pollution of the air, water or land, change lifestyles but also stimulate the construction of sewers or lead to more or less land pressure. Clearly no universal statement can be made about whether natural flows produced by migration or urbanisation work out negative or positive for urban and rural regions together.
The fourth element is the movement of ideas. This concerns information and communication technologies such as journals, radio, television and internet. Lynch notes that the benefits of these applications are probably overestimated. The rural population should gain a better access to political, social and economic capital. Access to online information about world market prices of a commodity for example can help farmers to increase their negotiation position. Yet negative consequences have to be taken into account like an unrealistic image of the city or the developed world, cultural imperialism, changes in identity and the strengthening of existing unequal power relations.
Finally, the movement of finances is mainly studied in the light of remittances send home by urban migrants to the rural household. Other study areas are access to credit or financial services such as insurances or saving accounts. The emphasis is laid on urban-to-rural flows, including the extraction of urban-to-rural capital by urban areas.
Lynch concludes with a recommendation to study more profoundly the nature of rural-urban linkages. A few general assumptions can be made about these linkages in developing countries. During colonisation, rural areas were exploited by urban ones and eventually both became exploited by the colonial powers. After independence, governments tried to set up intermediary towns, new infrastructure and to reorganise the society, intending to decrease the domination of the capital. Further urbanisation is unstoppable, resulting from increasing pressure on rural areas and increasingly appealing cities. Nevertheless, urban-to-rural migration is something to take into consideration for the following decennia, in accordance with developments in the developed world.
1.2.2 Review of Lynch’s model
Due to the recent date of publication, reviews of Lynch’s 2005 work are scarce. Adriana Allen agrees with Lynch about the lack of scientific and political attention covering linkages between rural and urban areas. She affirms the fading distinction between ‘urban’ and ‘rural’. Flows between both areas have to be analysed from a functional and relational point of view.24 Jennifer Franco also confirms the decreasing relevance of the division between rural and urban areas that came into existence during the colonial period, although it varies per country.25
Guilmoto and Sandron confirm the importance of the household and social networks as stressed by Lynch. Their level of analyses is the meso-scale which is located between the micro-economic view and the macro- or structural view. This scale examines social groups constituting social capital with relations in migration chains.26 The focus of the two authors is therefore less oriented towards an individual rational cost-benefit analyses.
Another point of discussion concerns the flow of finances. The pessimists argue that remittances are not well invested but used for luxury goods. Moreover, remittances create a dependency of the receivers on the sender which decreases their incentives and again does not lead to investments. The optimists however state that productive investments could be made, for example by using machines instead of manual workers, which lead to higher productions and income. Dependency is not inescapable and even in the case of buying a luxury good, it would at least stimulate local business.
The direction of migration forms a leading theme Lynch’s book. Especially counter-urbanisation is discussed, which could be defined as a process of relatively more populated rural areas in relation to urban areas. Return migration is one of the contributors to reversed urbanisation. Here, Lynch refers particularly to the contribution of urban-to-rural migration because people desire a pleasant environment. This type of migration already exists in Africa and shares several motivations with cyclical migration. Lower costs of housing, land etc. combined with savings from an urban income, could lead to a desire to return. This is not only applicable to elders but also to young people disillusioned by the city and its images they received through the movement of ideas. He concludes that eventually the less developed
24 A. Allen, ‘Sustainable cities or sustainable urbanisation?’ in: Palette,.<
http://www.ucl.ac.uk/sustainable-cities/perspectives/allen.pdf> (2009; accessed on 11-08-2009) perspective 3.18.
25 J. Franco ‘Rural democratisation: (Re)Framing rural poor political action’ <http://www.tni.org/> (2007; accessed on 11-08-2009).
world will experience the same pattern of movement of people as the developed world is experiencing now, although this can take decades.
The obvious question to ask is why Africa should follow the Western developments of counter-urbanisation. Lynch assumes that the urbanisation process in the developed world is followed in an analogous way by the less developed world, or at least in some parts of it. It automatically follows that the reverse phenomenon will also be analogous over time. Moreover it is not clear whether Lynch assumes that counter-urbanisation will ‘urbanise’ rural lifestyles, culture and society or that the opposite will happen, namely that rural influences will dominate these areas.
A precondition for counter-urbanisation is that urban growth caused by natural growth is less than the out-migration of rural inhabitants. Counter-urbanisation could lead to more small towns because of the growth of small villages. Thresholds and reclassification will also play their role in this process. A village can be reclassified as an urban area because of the inflow of urban migrants which exceeds the threshold for a rural area. This could precisely increase the national urbanisation grade while urban-to-rural migration increases. Counter-urbanisation by the quantitative definition mentioned above could therefore be difficult to determine. Moreover, the capital could still attract in-migrants where secondary cities could experience out-migration. This leads to a divers picture of counter-urbanisation. These limitations are not discussed by Lynch although he presents increasing counter-urbanisation as a realistic prediction.
In general, other researchers have reaffirmed the two-way flows between rural and urban areas of several movements such as people, goods (which are limited to food by Lynch), capital, ideas and technology. Some researchers ad an extra linkage, namely administrative and service provision or governance.27 Due to urban growth and urbanisation, administrative boundaries do not longer correspond with the spatial distribution of the (migrant) population. Moreover, peri-urban areas which combine rural and urban characteristics are not covered by local governance because they are located outside the juridical boundaries. This could for instance lead to an unclear or even a competing local responsibility and accordingly a deficient provision of basic services.
Chapter II: Migration trends in West Africa
2.1 Differences between the pre-colonial period and colonial period
For centuries, migration has been a common phenomenon in West Africa. Especially labour migration was a recurrent feature in the lives of farmers, for example to grow subsistence or cash-crops on uncultivated land. Population movements have had multiple causes such as (tribal) conflicts, expansion of land and people, trade over long distances, treks of nomadic herders, religious reasons like pilgrimages and later also by the slave trade. In general, circular and seasonal labour were common movements patterns for West Africans.28
Colonisation changed the social aspect of migration. Before the colonial penetration in 1860 to 1890, group movements dominated flows of people. This type of migration decreased relatively during colonisation and absolutely at the expense of individual migrants. The colonial powers wanted to control the movements of people. Temporary migration fitted in their labour programs, but permanent settlement was not desirable since it could endanger the colonial order.29
Colonisation also increased the importance of economic motivation to migrate. Remarkably, there are also examples of tribes or people who experienced more freedom of movement during colonial rule. Since large areas which were formerly held by certain tribes were not respected by the European powers, tribes had a possibility to move into other lands.
A third new aspect of population movements in colonial times was the agglomeration of scattered groups or people and to place them in the proximity of infrastructure. This would decrease the costs of social services, ensure more control over the population and make them maintain the route ways. With the colonisation in West Africa, even people from the Middle East emigrated and controlled part of the commerce or became workers.30 The use of temporary forced labour in the early period of colonisation was also apparent in West Africa. A track was constructed between Dakar and Bamako to fully exploit the trade potential of the region and therefore people were moved to the areas of construction. An unintended side effect was the spread of Islam.31 This could be explained by matching the geographical expansion of people against the expansion of ideas, under which religion. The availability of voluntary labour expanded in time so that the element of forced labour and migration declined
28 Castles, The age of migration 154; J. Goody, ‘Futures of the family in rural Africa’, Population and
Development Review 15 (1989) 119-144, q.v. 123-124. 29 Castles, The age of migration 151.
after 1900. Materialistic motivations to migrate outweighed cultural reasons such as the transition to adult life.32
Colonial influences on migration patterns were important and could partially explicate recent international flows of migrants to Europe. This can also be seen in paragraphs 5.5 and 6.5 in which national flows for Mali and Senegal are discussed. Besides this, forced migration, often in the form of refugees, is another form of flows of people. Under European rule, Africans flew because of conflicts with their oppressor. After colonisation, this type of migration continued although the oppressors had become other Africans. Since refugees are not always considered as migrants, their flows are not treated in this paper.
2.2 Migration after decolonisation
Decolonisation influenced migration patterns in several ways. The end of the colonial period resulted first in a return of European settlers from African countries, in West Africa mainly from Senegal. Refugees, although often seen as a distinct group, formed another type of migrant flows that increased. A third change in migration was the increase of restrictions on the movement of Africans within the region. Moreover, conflicts arising from tensions between tribes lead to movements of people. The volume of elites that migrated on an international scale had also risen. These were directed to Africa but African elites also migrated to Europe. Finally, rural-to-urban migration increased as well, aiming for the most important cities.33
Before as well as after decolonisation the major population movements were directed to the coast as migrants moved from a distant, less-developed area to a more developed area. Migrants mainly aimed for cities and regions where cash-crops were cultivated on a large scale. Therefore, they moved to farms, plantations or mines.34 Flows in West Africa could be divided into several main patterns. The first was the movement to peanut fields in Senegal and Gambia. As will be shown in chapter VI, Senegal experienced high immigration for this reason. Second, Sierra Leone and Liberia experienced migration to their mines, cash-cropping areas and cities. Third, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana attracted great numbers of migrants to the mining sector, farms and plantations and to the cities. Fourth, a smaller number of migrants moved to Togo, parts of current Benin, Nigeria and Lagos. Besides these coastal areas, other important flows of people were directed at mines in inner Nigeria and peanut fields in Mali
32 Hance, Population, migration and urbanization 138. 33 Idem 138-139.
but its size was smaller than in Senegal. The migration of fishermen was also of importance a well as the movement of African elite to northern areas and Europe.35
In the 1960s and early 1970s, young males dominated migration flows but the relative share of female migrants increased for reasons of family reunification. This is reflected by analysing characteristics of migrants in the case studies. Most migrants were unskilled or unqualified workers, while commercial and skilled migrants formed a minority. The main flows originated in rural areas and were directed to other rural areas and to urban areas. Due to out-migration in emigration countries, the average age increased. The immigration countries experienced the inverse development.36 In general, poorer nations were labour exporters to countries which benefited from cheap labour. On a continental scale, most of this migration was within Francophone or Anglophone regions since these languages were used for social contacts and on markets.37
Labour migration, which was common before, during and after colonisation, appeared to be a certain tendency throughout West African migration history. West Africans were highly mobile for economical reasons but social, cultural, religious or other reasons mattered as well. Restrictions did exist in some countries, like in Mali under the former socialist regime. The police and customs officers checked identity cards of rural migrants who wanted to enter the city and forced them to return to their village. This has been abolished after the regime change in 1991.38
2.3 Current migration trends and ECOWAS-convention
A new trend is the commercialisation of migration. While low-skilled labourers characterised traditional migration, recent immigrants are increasingly self-employed. Labour migration is therefore still of importance, which can be deduced from the continuing flow of migrants from northern regions to coastal areas where they search for work in mines, factories and plantations, or in the secondary sector.39 Whether this is also the case for Mali and Senegal, is explained in chapters V and VI.
35 Hance, Population, migration and urbanization 146-150.
36 S. Amin, Modern migrations in West Africa (London 1974) 69-70. 37 Goody, ‘Futures of the family in rural Africa’, 124.
38 Interview with Diallo. See also P. Antoine, D. Ouédraogo, V. Piché (ed), Trois générations de citadins. Trente
Besides commercialisation as a new development, feminisation40 of migration occurs as a new trend in West-Africa. Tacoli mentions that although male migrants still form a majority, there is an increase of female migrants moving independently from men. Their short- or longer-term migration often leads them to service sector jobs and becomes socially acceptable when remittances are received by the family.41 According to Sadio Traoré, the primary reason to migrate is family-associated but economic reasons gain importance. This is the opposite for men. The consequences of male migration are not automatically bad for the women that have stayed. They assume a greater responsibility and better access to land. Nevertheless, they also have to perform more and often physically heavier duties.42 If women migrate to seek for work in the cities, they often find it in domestic service.
According to Gourro Diallo, poverty is not a necessity for (female) migration. The daughters of the chief of the village, who do not have a lack of financial means, migrate as well but for reasons of social status. If one does not migrate, one will not be respected in the village. Another reason for women to migrate is to collect their own dowry by working as a housemaid. In some cases, they become prostitutes in the same city which is a fairly recent development.43
The geographical direction of migration of women and men as well as children is important, such as the movements from northern to coastal areas or to cities. In a joint study for the World Bank and OECD, performed in 1981, estimations on the number of migrants to Savannah regions are far less than the number of migrants to coastal regions. Around 1975, most of the 1,9 million migrants from Savannah-regions migrated to coastal areas of which a minority moved internally and a majority moved internationally.44 Besides an international or internal origin and destination, there are four main types of migration: rural, rural-to-urban, urban-to-urban and urban-to-rural. Samir Amin wrote in his 1974 book, Modern
migrations in West Africa, that urban-to-rural migration ‘would appear to be hypothetical’.45 This claim is now untenable in West Africa. Although its scale is small and exact figures for
40 In this context: an increasing share of female migrants to the total number of migrants so compared to the share of male migrants.
41 C. Tacoli, ‘Changing rural-urban interactions in Sub-Saharan Africa and their impacts on livelihood: a summary’, International Institute for Environment and Development, Working Paper (2002) 7, 20. 42 Interview with Sadio Traoré, demographer at the Centre d'études et recherches sur la population pour le développement et la problématique de la population et développement durable au Sahel (CERPOD), Bamako (29-05-2009).
43 Interview with Diallo. This assertion is at least applicable to Mali.
44 K.C. Zachariah, J. Condé, Migration in West Africa (New York 1981) 58. The study included nine countries: Ghana, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Gambia, Côte d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso (at the time Upper Volta), Senegal, Mali and Togo.
the whole region are unavailable, NESMUWA-research has shown that some migrants return to their villages after having worked a life-time in the city. Moreover, youngsters who cannot find a job in the city, might also return to the village, as we have seen in the first chapter. This could also be true for the case studies.
The four main types of migration can occur on different levels. On a regional scale, on which migration could be defined as international migration as well, migration depends in part on economic circumstances and (violent) conflicts.46 There is a positive correlation between these two factors and the number of immigrants. Expulsions of migrants by African governments in times of economic recession or for political reasons, contributed to flows of people in the region. Land disputes in Côte d’Ivoire, aggravated by the economic situation, even formed the major source of conflict between immigrants and natives.47 New concepts of identity had been created which excluded people who were born in the land but whose parents had been born in abroad. This did not only lead to the exclusion of certain political opponents but also to hostility to ‘others’, mainly against Burkinabe which resulted in migration outflows.48 The definition of identity and the rights and plights attached to it, were of great importance for the classification of people as migrants, natives or to intermediate categories. The high mobility in West Africa was restricted or enabled by these definitions, as well as by other legal instruments.
Only since the 1980s, African governments began to restrict cross-border labour migration more seriously. Some countries installed stricter border controls because of huge inflows of migrants. The presence of a sizeable group of illegal migrants, led to expulsions in several countries. Nevertheless, even where migration flows between countries decreased, this could not be traced back only to border controls and expulsions which should deter other migrants. One of the most important migration flows was rural-to-urban migration. It was perceived as a problem by depriving rural areas of its labour force and by causing a surplus demand of basic urban services of immigrants and born city dwellers.49
A distinction between internal migration and cross-border migration is therefore necessary. Governments have sovereignty over their nation, their territory and so it is possible to decide exclusively about legal actions that affect internal migration. Only when migrants
46 Castles, The age of migration 155.
47 T. Kouamouo, ‘Trouble in the hospitable land’, UNESCO Courier
<http://www.unesco.org/courier/2001_09/uk/doss23.htm> (2001; accessed on 4-9-2009).
48 In the constitution of Côte d’Ivoire of 2000, it is stated that the President and his parents have to be born in Côte d’Ivoire. It defines the identity concept of ‘Ivoirité’ which has a broader societal impact. C. Bouquet, ‘L’artificialité des frontières en Afrique subsaharienne’, Les cahiers d’outre-mer 222 (2003) 181-198, q.v. 185-186.
cross a national border, it becomes inevitable to cooperate with the neighbouring state, although one-sided governmental decisions were often taken throughout history no matter the direction of flows. According to policy makers, rural-to-urban flows, whether internal or international, should and shall decrease mainly by investments in rural agriculture.
International migration is often a long-term migration and more and more women and men opt for it. Enabling this are better transport opportunities, migrant networks which provide information and social contacts, and a growing demand in other countries.50 Financial remittances should then compensate family members for the lack of labour force, especially in the sowing and harvesting season if there was a shortage in the first place. These can be invested in machines which could increase the yields. Rural-to-urban migration is therefore not inherently unfavourable for those who stayed behind. It is nevertheless subject of discussion for West African governments.
While legal arrangements restrict movements of West Africans, they also enable them by offering legal opportunities and write out the rights of migrants. Especially within the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS), citizens are free to move and enjoy certain benefits which are nevertheless different per country as well as the level of implementation. Bilateral arrangements were also made between specific West African countries like between Mali and its neighbours Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Niger, and Guinea.51 Since 1978, the ECOWAS-member states have concluded agreements on the free movement of people and goods, added in time with capital and services.52
Although the convention of the ECOWAS on free movement of people mentions migrant workers, it excludes informal workers form this category as ‘persons whose working relations with an employer have not been established in the host Member State’ are not defined as migrant workers.53 It can be very hard for a migrant to give proof of working relations when he or she is employed in the informal sector, moreover because they do not always have an employer and work for themselves.
50 Tacoli, ‘Changing rural-urban interactions’ 20. 51 Findley, S.E., ‘Mali: seeking opportunity abroad’,
<http://www.migrationinformation.org/Profiles/display.cfm?ID=247> (2004; accessed on 4-9-2009) 52 Members are Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo. Mauritania withdraw in 2000. Its overall objective is ‘to promote cooperation and integration, with a view to establishing an economic and monetary union as a means of stimulating economic growth and development in West Africa.’ www.comm.ecowas.int
(accessed on 4-9-2009). Free movement of people within the ECOWAS includes: abolition of visas, right of residence and establishment, suppression of barriers and police check points, creation of ECOWAS travel certificate, circulation of ECOWAS passport and harmonization.
53 Supplementary protocol a/sp.2/5/90 on the implementation of the third phase (right of establishment) of the protocol on free movement of persons, right of residence and establishment. Chapter I, article 1.2.iii. (1990)
While judicial arrangements were made, there were also political developments that acknowledged problems and solutions surrounding migration and urban growth. The Bamako declaration by ten West African ministers from 1999 considered new developments such as the involvements of women and youngsters, it stressed the importance of investments in rural areas to decrease the rural exodus and the need to invest in cities as well so they could become growth centres. A migration policy should be formulated in every country which should include helping return migrants and providing information on host countries for emigrants.54
Clearly, migration is a concern for governments, either positively or negatively. The movement of people has been defined by international organisations, multilateral agreements, bilateral accords and national legislation, although not necessarily in the same way and therefore consequences can vary as well. The main migration patterns for 1988 until 1992 are presented by figure 1.
Figure 3. The main migration flows between 1988 and 1992.
source: ‘Intra-regional migration: A territory of extreme mobility’, Atlas on regional integration in West Africa, <http://www.atlas-ouestafrique.org/spip.php?rubrique51> (2006; accessed on 3-12-2009).
Legenda: immigration country: Côte d’Ivoire. Imigration country: Mali, Niger, Guinea. Zero-balance migratory countries: Mauritania, Senegal, Burkina Faso. Other countries were excluded in the research. Fat arrow: migratory flow > 20.000. Small arrow: migratory flow < 20.000. 67: number of migrants X 1000.
Chapter III: Urbanisation trends in West Africa
3.1 Differences between the pre-colonial period and colonial period
Urbanisation in Africa is a recent development since it was coupled with colonisation. Prior to the European penetration, trade systems led to a concentration of people in particular urban centres. There were also religious centres which grew through the arrival of pilgrims or students of which some settled permanently. Only with the arrival of colonisers, urbanisation became a real phenomenon.55 The link with the historical tendency in migration flows in the previous chapter is obvious. The European powers created centres of power from where they could easily trade or rule over the population. Forced labour migration, which meant in practice movements from rural to eventually urban areas, led to greater settlements in important commercial areas.
The main difference between the two periods is that urbanisation only took of when the European colonisers entered West Africa and used labour migration for commercial or other goals which led to agglomeration of people and therefore to cities. Since urbanisation is a relative process, it meant that the rural population relatively decreased.
3.2 Urbanisation after decolonisation
The move of people to cities, forced or voluntarily, continued after independence. If we take a look at the urban ratio, or urbanisation level, in the nineteen countries in West Africa56, we see the following:
Table 1: Percentage change of urban ratio from first until last year within period Period 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-1995 1995-2020
Percentage change 40% 50% 24% 12% 62%
Source: adaption of J. Cour, S. Snrech (ed.), Preparing for the future. A vision of West Africa in 2020 (1998) 133 The last period has a time span of 35 years but its change in urban ratio in percentage terms is relatively low compared to the first two decades after independence. This also holds for the case studies as shown in chapters VII and VIII. Perhaps, the height of urbanisation has passed. Most countries experienced an average urban population growth rate between 4% and 6% per year. The average growth rate of the rural population in the same period was 1,5%. The city formed the destination of many rural migrants during the earlier periods. Therefore, urban growth was mainly due to rural in-migration. However, its share in urban growth
55 Beauchemin, ‘Migration and urbanization’ 4.
diminished in the 1970s and 1980s to eventually 25%. Natural growth and reclassification became responsible for the absolute growth of cities. Surprisingly, natural growth was higher in urban areas than in rural areas or similar which seems contrary to the common opinion. This is due to a lower urban death rate and a young and fertile urban society.57 Rural fertility is assumed to be much higher than urban fertility rates but natural increase depends on birth and death rates, especially of children, as well. This could explain a higher urban natural increase compared to rural natural increase.
Urban growth has slowed down between the 1960s and 1990s from 11,5% per year to 4,7% which makes the urban centres in West Africa one of the fastest growing in the world. Its urbanisation level is nevertheless one of the lowest.58 Migration is one of the causes of urban growth, but its contribution to urban growth as well as to urbanisation is disputable. Different authors use different percentages which could lead to political decisions which are not based on real numbers.
Beauchemin and Bocquier mention a United Nations-study which estimated that 75% of urban growth was due to natural increase in the 1980s. They also found that reclassification was responsible for more then 25% of urban growth between the 1950s and the 1980s. This means that rural settlements have crossed the threshold such as 10.000 inhabitants and consequently, it becomes an urban area. This leads the two authors to the conclusion that the contribution of migration to urban growth was less than commonly assumed. Comparatively speaking, natural growth instead seems to contribute and more to growth of cities.59 The assertion that the share of urban in-migration is decreasing, could be partially explained by simply assuming that the more rural residents migrate to cities, the smaller the number of rural residents which are left to migrate as well.
An OECD-study which predicts the future of West Africa has an opposite opinion and foresees a great contribution of rural out-migration to cities. This is simply concluded from the rural-to-urban migration trend since independence which will continue.60 While it is stated in the introduction that it is important to reflect the past and look forward in time, it seems they forget to look at recent data which indicates a change in the main cause of urban growth. 3.3 Current urbanisation trends
57 D. Potts, ‘Recent trends in rural-urban and urban-rural migration in Sub-saharan Africa: the empirical evidence and implications for understanding urban livelihood insecurity’, Environment, Politics and
Development Working Paper Series 6 (2008) 2-3. 58 Beauchemin, ‘Migration and urbanization’ 7. 59 Idem 7. See also chapter I, page 6.
Philippe Bocquier criticises the accuracy of predictions of urbanisation grades throughout the world.61 He focuses especially on predictions made by the United Nations. Focusing on West Africa while using his own methodology, he finds an important adjustment which affects 73% of its population. Nevertheless, he warns the reader of jumping to conclusions, since his method encounters difficulties surrounding changing definitions, lack of recent data and different national definitions. According to the prediction of the United Nations, the urban population in West Africa in 2030 would be almost 59%. Bocquier however projects the urban population in 2030 as 50% of the total West African population.62 This is a large difference of 8,8%, although both predictions state that in 2030, halve of West Africa’s population will live in urban areas.
Urban areas are capital cities, principal and secondary cities and other towns. There are different migration flows between these types and between rural areas. Migration in Africa is often seen as a move to the capital. Nevertheless, Beauchemin and Bocquier show that capitals received less migrants than a few decades ago and that in a minority of countries the two succeeding types of cities also received less migrants.63 Overall, capitals, secondary and principal cities have a positive net migration rate while rural areas have a negative net migration rate. This could mean that rural residents move from their village to a larger village, to a near town, to a bigger town, to the capital and eventually to a foreign city or sometimes to a foreign rural area like plantations along the coast of West Africa. This is described as step-wise migration.
Another new development, or at least a new field in migration studies, is the blurring of the distinction between rural and urban, between subsistence workers and wage labourers, between their geographical division, labour characteristics, gender specific tasks etcetera. Agriculture is practised in rural, peri-urban and urban areas which could lead to conflict between inhabitants over resources as water and land. It could result in a clash about the need for urban housing and the need for land to cultivate for rural as well as urban residents. This will also be discussed in the analysis of Lynch’s model. Exactly the contrast between rural and urban seems to disappear, partly due to the social bonds that migrants have with their families and villages. Moreover, they could return every year or more often in the case of short-term migration. The question is how we should classify these types of migrants or if it is even possible to make a sharp distinction.
61 P. Bocquier, ‘World urbanization prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory’, Demographic research 12 (2005) 198-236, q.v. 9.
