Bioethanol Research Wageningen University and University of Groningen
Risks, Opportunities, and Uncertainties of Bioethanol production and distribution in the EU
1. Organization
2. Surname
Bioethanol production faces many risks, opportunities and uncertainties. The aim of this questionnaire is to determine the likelihood and impact of the bioethanol risks and potential risk mitigation strategies.
The content of this questionnaire is based upon in-depth interviews with experts in bioethanol production and distribution as well as a literature study. The questionnaire consists of three parts. The first part is applicable to all participants. The second part deals with the risk of bioethanol production and distribution specifically. The final part of the questionnaire is meant for all participants and consists of potential strategies to reduce or mitigate risk.
For consistency purposes the risks are assess taking into account a five year time span. Remarks and additions can be added at the end of the questionnaire.
3. How large do you estimate the market share of bioethanol in the EU gasoline market in 2010? <4%
4-5% 5-6% 6-7% >7%
4. How do you expect the EU ethanol market to develop after 2010? Rapid decline
5. How large do you estimate the market share of bioethanol in the EU gasoline market in 2020? ( first and second generation) <2% 2-6% 6-10% 10-14% >14%
6. To what degree do you consider the ethanol price to be determined by the oil price? No degree
Small degree Moderate degree Large degree Very large degree
7. At what oil price would you estimate first generation ethanol to become competitive with gasoline? (Excluding tax exemptions). $40-$60 $60-$80 $80-$100 $100-$120 No clue
9. How high would you estimate the costs of a certification system for bioethanol production? (cents p/litre) < €0,01 €0,01 - €0,03 €0,03 - €0,05 > €0,05 No clue
10. How high would you estimate the anhydreous ethanol price two years from now (? p/m3)? Please specify a low, mean and high estimate.
11. Likelihood of occurence.
The risk that no long-term stable government policy is present.
O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue The risk that the hygroscopic nature of ethanol limits distribution and storage. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The risk that a bad harvest reduces the amount of available biomass considerably. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The risk that first generation ethanol production reduces biodiversity in developing countries. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The next part focusses on the impact of the risks assessed in the above part.
12. Impact of event.
The risk that no long-term stable government policy is present.
O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue The risk that the hygroscopic nature of ethanol limits distribution and storage. O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue The risk that a bad harvest reduces the amount of available biomass considerably. O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
The next part of the questionnaire is solely aimed at ethanol producers. Oil companies can continue to question 14.
13.
The risk that the ethanol price declines considerably.
O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue The risk that the cattle-feed byproduct price declines considerably. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue The risk that the raw material costs will increase considerably.
O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The risk that competition for biomass resources raises biomass prices considerably. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The risk that more ethanol production capacity is build in the EU than will be demanded. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The risk of not meeting the ethanol quality requirements for fuel or ETBE specification. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The risk that EU import tariffs are reduced considerably.
O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The risk that other alternative fuels compete heavily with ethanol five years from now. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The risk that ethanol plant builders occupy a power position when constructing a new plant. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The risk that oil companies occupy a power position in the supply chain. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost Certain O No clue
The following part focusses on the impact of the risks assessed in the former part of the questionnaire.
14.
The risk that the ethanol price declines considerably.
O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue The risk that the cattle-feed byproduct price declines considerably.
O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue The risk that the raw material costs will increase considerably.
O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
The risk that competition for biomass resources raises biomass prices considerably. O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
The risk that more ethanol production capacity is build in the EU than will be demanded. O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
The risk of not meeting the ethanol quality requirements for fuel or ETBE specification. O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
The risk that EU import tariffs are reduced considerably.
O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
The risk that other alternative fuels compete heavily with ethanol five years from now. O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
The risk that ethanol plant builders occupy a power position when constructing a new plant. O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
The risk that oil companies occupy a power position in the supply chain. O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
15. Do you think that sugerbeet could be succesfully used as raw material for ethanol production? Yes/No, please explain why.
The following part consists of questions solely for oil companies. Non-oil companies can continue to question 16.
16. Likelihood of occurence.
The risk that ethanol prices rise considerably.
O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost certain O No clue
The risk that the EU fuel market fragmentates if dissimilar ethanol blends are used. O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost certain O No clue
In case of having a certification system. The risk of not being able to meet the required amount of certified bioethanol.
O Rare O Unlikely O Possible O Likely O Almost certain O No clue
17. Impact of event.
The risk that ethanol prices rise considerably.
O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue The risk that the EU fuel market fragmentates if dissimilar ethanol blends are used. O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
In case of having a certification system. The risk of not being able to meet the required amount of certified bioethanol.
O Insignificant O Minor O Moderate O Major O Catastrophic O No clue
In the last part of the questionnaire the potential of different risk mitigation strategies is assessed.
18.
Obtaining long-term contracts for ethanol.
O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer Developing technology to be able to use waste material as raw material in the future. O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer Making use of hedging mechanisms (forward contracts) to reduce price risk. O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer Certifying the bioethanol and improving the sustainability aspects.
O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer
Producer specific: developing additional markets for byproducts from ethanol production. O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer
Producer specific: increasing the scale of production.
O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer Producer specific: the possibility to switch raw materials.
O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer Producer specific: when building the plant. Obtaining a good building contract. O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer
Producer specific: instigating close cooperation between electricty, fuel and chemical production in order to make option use of the same biomass (utilizing waste streams).
O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer
Oil companies specific: utilizing the opt-out possibility in the event of high ethanol prices.
O Negligible O Low O Moderate O High O Very high O No clue / No answer
On behalf of the Wageningen University and the University of Groningen, I would like to thank you for your kind cooperation.
Yours sincerely, Age van der Mei T +316 533 96 118
