Crime drop, attention drop?

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‘Crime drop, attention drop?’

Researching the impact of the decreasing juvenile crime-rate

in The Netherlands on local municipal politics.

Master thesis (15EC)

Study:

Crisis and Security Management

Student:

Sjoerd Cornelis Hoekman

S1450158

Course:

Master Thesis Crisis & Security Management

(2019-2020)

Supervisor:

Dr. H. Mazepus

Second reader:

Dr. J. J. Kantorowicz

Date:

12-01-2020

Word count:

9350

City:

Urk (Flevoland), The Netherlands

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Abstract:

Since the year of 2007, the juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands (and internationally) has

declined rapidly. The juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands in 2018 is almost the half of what

it was in 2007. In the academic literature this crime drop is depicted as one of the most

important puzzles in contemporary criminology. Although prominent scholars have identified

various explanations for this rapid decline in the juvenile crime-rate, the phenomenon still can’t

be fully accounted for. Since this topic is highly related to the management of crisis and

security, this research wondered if this crime drop is accompanied by a drop in political

attention for the topic.

On the basis of the literature on the topic of juvenile crime statistics, the first expectation

of this study was that the juvenile crime-rate in the selected sample of this study, the

municipalities in The Netherlands with more than 100.000 residents (the ‘G100.00-plus’),

would have decreased since 2007. Analysis of the crime statistics, as provided by the Statistics

Netherlands, showed that this was indeed the case for the G100.000-plus: the juvenile

crime-rate had declined in these municipalities.

For the study of the effects this decline had on the political attention for the topic, the

coalition agreements of 27 municipalities of the G100.00-plus were empirically analysed. This

analysis showed that the mentioning of juveniles in coalition agreements had decreased from

542 references in 2006 to 481 references in 2018. When these references were categorized into

different contexts that they were stated in, a decrease could be identified in the number of times

juveniles were discussed in a context of criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention: in 2006

juveniles were 78 times referred to in a context of criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention

to 42 times in 2018.

This decline in the reference to juveniles in a context of criminal behaviour and/or crime

prevention indicated that the local municipal attention had declined in the period 2006 to 2018

when the juvenile crime-rate had also rapidly declined. On the basis of these finding, this study

found convincing evidence that the declining juvenile crime-rate had a decreasing effect on the

municipal political attention for juvenile crimes. The crime drop in juvenile crime statistics

was accompanied by a political attention drop for the subject.

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1. Introduction:

Since 2007, statistics show a rapid decline in juvenile crime suspects in The Netherlands (Van

der Laan & Weijters, 2015: 203). This is not just a phenomenon occurring in The Netherlands,

but is an international occurrence happening in most Western countries (Berghuis & De Waard,

2017: 14-15). However, juvenile delinquencies are still causing large civil unrest in society

when comes to the possession of large quantities of knives

1

_{and the committing of the most}

serious of crimes at a very young age

2

_{. National and local governments have to act on the}

prevention of crime and the formulation of policy although this dichotomy in the experience of

juvenile crimes exists. It is therefore no wonder that the Dutch academic journal ‘Tijdschrift

voor Criminologie’ issued a call for papers regarding juvenile criminality

3

_{. They argue that the}

academic literature on the topic is outdated and is in need of new research.

This research uses a political-administrative approach to the topic as it tries to depict

how political attention develops over time when a topic of interest to political executives is

declining both in its statistics as in its relevance. On the one hand, one could expect a decline

in political attention as the ‘problem’ (juvenile crime) is decreasing in its statistics. On the other

hand, one could contradict this statement by the rise of security-related issues and the

importance that is given in today’s society to such topics. The aim of this research is to clarify

the consequences of the declining juvenile crime-rate given the two contrasting bodies of

literature.

To answer this specific interest on the consequences of the decline of the juvenile

crime-rate on local municipal policies, this research is structured around the following research

question: To what extent has the decrease of the juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands since

2007 impacted municipal political attention for the subject?

1_{NOS (06-01-2020), ‘Politie vindt groot aantal messen bij groep Amsterdamse minderjarigen’, on:}

https://nos.nl/artikel/2317555-politie-vindt-groot-aantal-messen-bij-groep-amsterdamse-minderjarigen.html?utm_campaign=Nieuwsuur%20Vandaag&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20ne wsletter [visited on 07-01-2020].

2_{RTL Nieuws (14-07-2019), ‘Ouders vermoorde Romy, Savannah en Nick willen hogere straffen’, on:}

https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/artikel/4779811/romy-savannah-nick-petitie-dood-jeugdstraffen-vermoord-minderjarige-daders, [visited on 10-09-2019].

3_{Boom Uitgevers Den Haag (2019), ‘Call for papers: Themanummer over ‘Hedendaagse jeugdcriminaliteit’’, on:}

http://www.boomuitgeversdenhaag.nl/system/uploads/47018/original/Call_TvC_themanummer_Jeugdcriminalit eit.pdf?1558003078 [visited on 15-10-2019].

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As has been noted, two contrasting bodies of literature exist on the basis of which an answer

to the research question can be given. These two bodies of literature form the basis of this

research. In chapter two, the decline in juvenile crime will be discussed more in-depth. Chapter

three comprehends the existing literature on the topic of this research. On the basis of the bodies

of literature that have been found, expectations for the research will be formulated in the form

of hypotheses. A total of three hypotheses will be formulated. Chapter four discusses the data

and methodology that underly this research and give way to the validity and replicability of the

research. In chapter five the empirical analysis will be performed, in which the formulated

hypotheses will be tested with the empirical data that has been found using the methods

described in chapter four. Finally, in chapter six an answer to the research question can be

formulated. In this final chapter also, a discussion on the research is included and the

contributions to theory and recommendations.

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2. The juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands:

In the introduction of this research the topic of interest of this study has already been stated;

the declining juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands. While the rest of this research focuses on

the consequences of this decline in juvenile criminal offences on municipal political attention

for this subject, this chapter will first and foremost describe the juvenile crime-rate itself as it

develops in The Netherlands.

Figure 1. Total number of crime suspects in The Netherlands from 2005 to 2018. Data derived from: Statistics Netherlands (28-03-2019),

‘Verdachten van misdrijven; leeftijd, geslacht en recidive’, on:

https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/81997NED/table?ts=1576745606451 (visited on 18-12-2019).

In figure 1 the total number of crime suspects in The Netherlands has been depicted. As follows

from this figure a rapid decline in reregistered crime suspects can be witnessed in The

Netherlands. In the academic field of criminology this phenomenon is depicted as the ‘crime

drop’, that has not only occurred in The Netherlands but in most Western countries since 2007

(Farall, 2017). Farall (2017) even depicts it as ‘one of the most important puzzles of

contemporary criminology’ (Farrall, 2017: 1). The decline in registered criminality also occurs

in the statistics of juvenile crimes. In figure 1 a declining trend can be identified in the juvenile

registered crime suspects by more than half.

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Nu m be r of c ri m e su sp ec ts

Total number of crime suspects in The Netherlands

Underage suspects (12-17 years old) Adult suspects (18 years and older)

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3. Theoretical framework:

In this section of the research, possible answers related to our research question will be sought

in the academic literature on the topic of interest of this study. As Holsti (1969) points out, a

content analysis without any theoretical relevance is a mere description of words and is of little

value (1969: 5). To fulfill this precondition of doing content analysis, this chapter will the

discuss both the concept of political attention as well as provide insight in the trends in the

prevention and characteristics of juvenile criminology. With the help of these concepts and the

prevalent literature on the topics of interest, a research design can be constructed and

hypotheses can be formulated. The research question of this research is: To what extent has the

decrease of the juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands since 2007 impacted municipal political

attention for the subject?

To provide hypotheses for this research question, this chapter will firstly look into the

academic literature on the topic of juvenile criminology. In this section, trends and

characteristics in this field of criminology will be described. With the use of this knowledge,

expectations can be formulated on the juvenile crime-rate that is of the interest of this study.

The second section of this chapter focuses on the dependent variable of the research: the

concept of political attention. On the basis of this concept two hypotheses will be formulated.

The first hypotheses that will be discussed expects a decline in the political attention, the third

and last hypothesis doesn’t.

3.1 Trends in juvenile statistics:

Juvenile crime in The Netherlands has yearly declined since the year of 2008 (Van der Laan,

Beerthuizen & Goudriaan, 2017: 28). This decline in the juvenile crime-rate is not just a Dutch

phenomenon, but is a phenomenon that can be identified in more countries internationally (Van

der Laan et al., 2017: 34-36). The explanations given for this steady decline of juvenile crimes

are inconclusive on what factor is the precise reason for this decline. Topics that are being

related to this decline of juvenile crimes are the development of digitization and social media

and a possible shift of criminality to online domains (Van der Laan et al., 2017: 41-42 &

44-45).

The UN Guidelines on crime prevention portray a crucial role of mayors in the

prevention of crime on a local municipal level. At the local level crime has the most effect on

society and this is the place where the tackling of crime is needed (Shaw, 2016: 433).

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Since the decline of the juvenile crime-rate is steadily declining in The Netherlands

since 2007 and that this is an international trend, it is expected that the juvenile crime-rate in

the G100.000-plus is also declining.

3.2 Political attention declining:

On the basis of the academic literature on the topic of political attention, two contrasting

hypotheses can be formulated. This second section will discuss academic literature on the basis

of which a decline of the local municipal political attention can be expected.

Prominent academic authors in the field of political attention are Baumgartner & Jones

(1993). In their academic work in 1993, they introduced the ‘punctuated equilibrium’ theory in

the field of social sciences. The punctuated equilibrium theory depicts political attention as a

stable process when the importance and character of a certain issue doesn’t change. However,

when these events do occur, the changes are expected to happen in a sudden, highly fluctuating

manner (Baumgartner & Jones, 1993; Breeman, Lowery, Poppelaars, Resodihardjo,

Timmermans & De Vries, 2012: 2). After a period of stable circumstances, changes in political

attention occur for example when a crisis appears in the policy domain of this certain policy.

At that moment the political attention for the topic skyrockets and a change in policy is

expected. When the topic of juvenile crimes is regarded as a stable process, as the juvenile

crime-rate is steadily declining this past decade, no erratic changes in the political attention can

be expected. If changes however do occur and the period of stable circumstances changes, a

large increase in political attention for the topic can be expected.

A key characteristic of political attention of political executives furthermore, is that the

amount of political attention one can devote to social issues is scarce. The political attention

span of executives in local government is limited, not every social issue present in everyday

society can be at the top of their political agenda (Otjes, 2012: 29; Baumgartner & Jones, 2005:

32). Moreover, in a coalition government this political attention is also bound by political

choices and political positions that were made in the coalition agreements (Breeman et al.,

2012: 2). Since this political attention span is limited, a social issue that is declining in its

indicators is not expected to be of the highest of priority to these political executives. The

long-term perspectives on political attention and agenda-setting processes however are not depicted

in these studies of political attention (Breeman et al., 2012: 3). Therefore, the public policy

cycle, with the agenda-setting phase as the topic of interest will be discussed more in-depth.

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Public policies start with the occurrence of problems. No wonder that the well-known

public policy cycle as described by Howlett, Ramesh & Perl (2009) starts with the stage of

agenda-setting (2009: 92). In this stage of the policy cycle social conditions and structures are

of importance as each phenomenon can be viewed by one actor as insignificant, while the other

actors can think it’s an enormous problem that requires policy intervention (Howlett et al.,

2009: 93). One prominent theory on the topic of agenda-setting is the stream model of Kingdon

(2014). He suggested that the formation of public policy resembled the ‘garbage can model’ of

decision-making of Cohen, March & Olsen (1972): the policy formation process was not

systematic and rational as was previously thought (Rainey, 2014: 135-136). Kingdon (2014)

suggested the policy formation process to be as a stream model which is composed of three

streams: problems, policies and politics (Kingdon, 2014: 227). When the three streams meet,

policy is generated. This section of the stream model is called the ‘window of opportunity’.

The stream of problems fluctuates on the basis of what is regarded as a problem. The less a

particular phenomenon is viewed as a ‘problem’, the less likely it is that policy is generated.

The problems arrived at the political executive’s desk through three ways: indicators, events

and feedback (Rainey, 2014: 136). By indicators the figures of a social issue are portrayed to

them in such a way that either a decline or increase of these indicators could indicate the need

to intervene and to direct the executives’ political attention to a certain issue (Rainey, 2014:

136). By events one could think of crises in a certain policy field. By feedback the evaluative

reports or complaints by citizens that could be brought up (Rainey, 2014: 136). The political

attention of these political executive is thus, among other ways, influenced by indicators of a

social issue. When a steady decline of an undesired phenomenon can be identified in these

indicators, the expectation is that this leads to a neglect of this topic by the political executive.

A steady rise of an undesired phenomenon could however spark the attention of political figure

in a sudden, fluctuating manner.

Since the juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands is decreasing, on the basis of this body

of knowledge a similar decline in municipal political attention for the subject could be

expected.

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3.3 Political attention not declining:

The prevention of crime for specific groups, such as juveniles, is a key characteristic of

secondary offender-oriented crime prevention (Van Dijk, Huisman & Nieuwbeerta, 2016: 198).

In this form of crime prevention, plans are developed for a specific group that has the potential

to get caught up in criminal delinquencies (Van Dijk et al., 2016: 194).

This perspective on juveniles as a risk group has some of the characteristics of the trend

of the ‘securitization’ of topics. In this example, the education of juveniles is seen from the

perspective of a potential security issue. Balzacq (2011) has identified this securitization theory

as a way of portraying a public issue as a security issue (Balzacq, 2011). This constructs of

portraying an issue as a security issue gives the issue an association with a logic of ‘war and

emergency’ (Balzacq, 2011: 136), and thus relating the topic as a primary concern that should

be dealt with immediately. In this way a certain topic in the previously explained ‘problem

stream’ of Kingdon (2014: 90-115), could spark interest as the problem is now viewed as

associated with security, and seen as a security issue, and thus spark an increase in the

classification of the problem as very important. Moreover, political executives in the ‘Political

stream’ (Kingdon, 2014: 145-164) are more prone to act as the issue is regarded as important,

in contrast to other issues on the political agenda as they their time is limited and the amount

of social issues that require their attention is not (Bovens, ‘t Hart & Van Twist, 2012: 152).

Moreover, in their analysis of 150 local coalition agreements in The Netherlands,

Becker & Boogers (2006) found that safety often had the highest priority in the coalition

agreements (2006: 7). Contrary to their expectations, the topic of safety was not ruled out by

left-wing topics such as poverty reduction and health-care (2006: 7). However, Becker &

Boogers (2006) do point out that safety in comparison to others themes in the coalition

agreements was discussed somewhat superficially (2006: 7). Other themes were more in-depth

discussed. The thematic attention to safety in the coalition agreements was also the highest in

2002; it was discussed in every coalition agreement (Castenmiller & Boogers, 2002). This

however was preceded by a large thematic attention for safety during the campaign, which was

not the case in 2006 (Becker & Boogers, 2006: 12). In this regard, safety can be viewed as a

‘motherhood issue’ (Stone, 2002: 12): everyone is an advocate of a certain topic, but

differences occur when you ask what you mean by them. This phenomenon can be identified

in the process of dominant frames being used by mainstream political parties, that were

identified by Valk (2019), in which the topics of immigration and integration were portrayed

as a matter of national security.

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On the basis of these findings, one could expect that the juvenile crime-rate would still

spark a huge amount of political attention as every issue with juveniles could be portrayed as

a security issue. Although the juvenile crime-rate is declining in The Netherlands, still the

issues with juveniles could still be seen as a huge issue for public officials and thus leading the

problem stream along with the political executives in the political stream to a window of

opportunity for new public policies. Therefore, on the basis of this body of literature it can be

expected that the decrease in the juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands has at least no

declining effect on the amount of political attention in local municipal politics on this subject.

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4. Data and methodology:

The aim of this research is to provide insight into how political attention develops over time

when a topic of interest to political executives is declining in both its statistics as in its

relevance. In the overview of literature two conflicting bodies of literature on this topic were

cited. It is therefore at the interest of this study how this political attention develops over a time

on a certain topic.

This chapter will elaborate on how this type of research will be conducted and how an

answer to the research question will be formulated. In the first section of this chapter the

choices made in the structuring of this research will be explained and argued for. In this section

the longitudinal design of the research will be discussed and how the dependent and

independent variable are expected to relate. In the second section of this chapter, the data used

in the research will be explained along with the characteristics of this type of data. In the third

and final section of this chapter, the operationalization and coding methods will be explained

and argued for.

4.1 Research Design:

The research design is the plan for the collection and analysis of data in order to formulate an

answer to the research question (Holsti, 1969: 24). The research question of this study is: To

what extent has the decrease of the juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands since 2007 impacted

municipal political attention for the subject? On the basis of this research question a research

design can be developed. As follows from the research question, the relationship that is of

interest to this study is the relationship between the declining juvenile crime-rate and the

municipal political attention for the juvenile crimes. The research question is constructed on

the expectation that the declining juvenile crime-rate influences the municipal political

attention for juvenile crimes. We thus can state that the decline of the juvenile crime-rate since

2007 is the independent variable in this study and that the municipal political attention for

juvenile crimes is the dependent variable (Bryman, 2016: 42).

The review of the literature on the topic of our research question in chapter three

specified three expectations (hypotheses) that could provide an answer to our research question.

The first hypothesis was that the juvenile crime-rate is decreasing in The Netherlands and thus

expected that in the G100-000-plus a similar decline in the juvenile crime-rate can be expected.

The second body of literature formulated an expectation that the declining juvenile crime-rate

would also lead to a decline in the municipal political attention for juvenile crimes; a decreasing

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Declining

juvenile

crime-rate

since 2007

No decreasing effect

Municipal

political

attention

for juvenile

crimes

Decreasing effect

effect. The third body of literature showed a contrasting view with this expectation. On the

basis of this third section of the literature review a contrasting expectation could be formulated:

that the declining juvenile crime-rate since 2007 would have no decreasing effect on the

municipal political attention for juvenile crimes.

A summary of this analysis of the relationship that is of interest to this study is provided

in figure two in which the expectations and variables of this study are schematically rendered.

In this figure the hypotheses derived from the literature are portrayed as arrows coming from

the independent variable, the declining juvenile crime-rate since 2007, and pointing at the

dependent variable, the municipal political attention for juvenile crimes.

Figure 2. Schematic rendering of the expected relationship between the dependent and independent variable.

To provide an answer to the research question and to test the expected relationship that has just

been discussed, empirical evidence for these assumptions has to be gathered. To test whether

or not the political attention has changed following the decline of the juvenile crime-rate since

2007, a mere study of the political attention prior to the decline of the juvenile crime-rate since

2007 is not sufficient. The municipal political attention should be investigated at two moments

in time; a moment in time when the juvenile crime-rate was high and a moment in time when

the juvenile-crime rate was low. This prerequisite of the design of this study leads to the

conclusion that a longitudinal design of the research fits the research question best. A

longitudinal designed research researches the same variable but at two different moments in

time (Bryman, 2016: 56-59). One study of the municipal political attention for juvenile crimes

at a time when the juvenile crime-rate is high, and a study of the municipal political attention

for juvenile crimes at a time when the juvenile crime-rate is low. Therefore, the moments of

time picked in this research are not decided on by author, but are dictated by the research

question itself (Bryman, 2016: 287).

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4.2 Data:

Now that the variables in the research have been discussed, the most relevant research design

has been selected and the prerequisites for the moments in time have been formulated now the

selection the data used for this research can start.

Before the discussion of the data-selection it’s best to establish a scope of the research.

Will all of the political executives dealing with juvenile crimes be interviewed, are

questionnaires going to be sent throughout The Netherlands or the whole of Europe? Since this

study lacks the money, time and resources for a full research of an analysis of a large

multi-country wide research, this study focuses on The Netherlands as a whole. Still, measuring all

the political sentiment of all the municipalities in a country is beyond the skills and means of

the researcher. Therefore, a sample will be selected that represents a large portion of the

population of The Netherlands. The focus on municipalities is based on the fact that juvenile

offences are mostly regarded as a topic of interest for the municipal level of government in The

Netherlands

4

_{. Low-level crimes are of primary concern for municipal actors, not of the national}

governmental actors. To find a good representation of the municipal political attention in The

Netherlands there has been sought for ‘groups’ of municipalities with enough members so that

the data can could possibly be generalized for the whole of The Netherlands, but small enough

so that it could fit the money, time and resources of this study. This sample was chosen in the

so-called ‘G100.000-plus’ municipalities, which are the 31 municipalities in The Netherlands

with more than 100.000 residents as classified by the Statistics Netherlands

5

_{. These}

municipalities have been selected on the basis of their population on the first of January 2019

6

_.

Since the scope of the research has now been established, a more in-depth look into the

variables used in this study is worthwhile. The municipal political attention on juvenile crimes

will be measured by studying municipal coalition agreements that are formed in coalition

formations in The Netherlands after (municipal) elections have taken place (Shepsle, 2010:

506-509; Heringa, Van der Velde, Verhey & Van der Woude, 2012: 143). In these coalition

agreements political parties discuss the future policy plans that they have and negotiate which

4 _Centrum _voor _{Criminaliteitspreventie} _en _Veiligheid _(2019), _‘Betrokken _partijen’, _on:

https://hetccv.nl/onderwerpen/georganiseerde-criminaliteit-en-ondermijning/betrokken-partijen/ [visited on 03-01-2020].

5_{Statistics Netherlands (2019), ‘Gemeentegrootte en stedelijkheid’, on:}

https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/onze-diensten/methoden/classificaties/overig/gemeentegrootte-en-stedelijkheid [visited on 25-11-2019].

6 _CBS ₍₅ _November _2019), _‘Regionale _kerncijfers _{Nederland’,} _on:

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Coalition

agreements

of the

'G100-000-plus'

in 2006

Coalition

agreements

of the

'G100-000-plus'

in 2018

policy preference is the position of the coalition in the governing period. These coalition

agreements thus describe the policy preferences of the coalition for the upcoming governing

period, which resembles the political attention the political coalition has for certain policies.

As Becker & Boogers (2006) put it:

‘‘Municipal coalition agreements record the political-administrative spirit of the times.

They provide a good picture of contemporary social and political-administrative developments

and the way in which the local government wishes to respond to this.’’ [Translated from Dutch]

- Becker & Boogers (2006: 2).

Now that the municipal political attention can be measured and the scope of the research

is established, the one thing that is left is the time-frame of the study. From the case description

of the juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands, a continuing decline in the juvenile crime-rate

could be witnessed following the year of 2007 to the latest point in time available. As was

discussed earlier in this chapter, the two points in time were dictated by our research question:

a point in time when the juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands was high and a point in time

when the juvenile crim-rate in The Netherlands was low. On the basis this prerequisite, the first

point in time should be centred in the year of 2007. Since no municipal elections have taken

place in The Netherlands in that year, the first election prior to that year are the municipal

elections of 2006. The coalition documents of that year will form the first point in time of this

research. The second point should be at the lowest point of the juvenile crime-rate in The

Netherlands, which according to the latest available data is the year of 2018 (see figure 1 in the

second chapter). The municipal coalition agreements formed after the 2018 municipal elections

will form the second point in time of this longitudinal research.

These choices made in the design of this research leads us to the following schematic

rendering as visible in figure three.

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4.2 Methodology:

Since the research design of the study justified the use of coalition agreements as an indicator

for municipal political attention, the method of analysis in this study will be that of content

analysis. Numerous definitions of ‘content analysis’ exist, but Holsti (1969) identified three

main elements that all of these definitions include: objectivity, system and generality (1969:

2-3). The element of objectivity involves the incorporation of data by explicitly formulated rules

and procedures, not on the coder’s vague distinction (Holsti, 1969: 2). The element of

systematic means that these have to be consistently be applied, including among different

coders. The third and last element Holsti (1969) identified is the element of generality (1969:

5). This involves the fact that the findings should have theoretical relevance which has been

addressed earlier in this chapter (1969: 5).

To analyse the first hypothesis of this study, the data of the Statistics Netherlands (CBS)

was used. In The Netherlands the governmental institution Statistics Netherlands (CBS)

independently provides statistical data on numerous social issues

7

_{. This statistical data includes}

the registration of criminal suspects in the databases of the National Police.

To analyse the coalition agreements, the documents had to be collected. For the 2018

coalition agreement this was simple, as the Open State Foundation had already set up a database

with all the coalition agreements in The Netherlands of 2018

8

_{. After a quick scan of five of}

these coalition agreements, they were identified as to be the same as the ones on the

municipality’s own website.

The collection of the 2006 coalition agreements was however not that easy. Each of the

31 municipalities had to be addressed with the request for these documents as they were not

readily available on the internet. A total of 28 of the 31 municipalities responded with the

correct coalition agreement of which 27 were deemed fit for comparison with their 2018

counterpart

9

_{. The municipality send a second coalition agreement that was made after a}

collapse of a coalition in 2008. Only the first coalition agreement however was analysed.

7_{Statistics Netherlands (2019), ‘Organisation’, on: https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/about-us/organisation [visited on}

15-12-2019].

8_{Open State Foundation (2019), ‘Open Coalitieakkoorden’, on:}

https://openstate.eu/nl/projecten/politieke-transparantie/open-coalitieakkoorden-2/ [visited on 8-10-2019].

9_{The municipalities of both Eindhoven and Apeldoorn did not send any response to any of the e-mails that were}

sent to them with this request for information. The municipality of Breda responded that they couldn’t find the 2006 coalition agreement of their municipality in their archives. The municipality of Alkmaar did send a coalition agreement, but it was a version from a year later that discussed the progress of each of the goals that were described in the coalition agreement of 2006. This document was deemed not to be fit for comparison.

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4.2.1 Operationalization:

The phase of operationalization forms an integral part of this research. What is counted as

relevant for the analysis is obviously determined by the research question of this thesis

(Bryman, 2016: 289). The academic knowledge that has been obtained is translated into two

topics of interest. The first hypothesis of this study focuses on the juvenile crime-rate in the

G100.000-plus. The second and third hypothesis focus on the municipal political attention for

juvenile crimes. In this section of this chapter these two topics will be operationalization into

measurable indicators.

The registered number of suspects in the municipalities can be derived from the

database of the Statistics Netherlands (CBS), but when is someone a juvenile? For this study

the best definition of a juvenile would be whether or not he or she is underage or of age.

Juvenile crime is focused on everyone below the age of eighteen. The registration of the age of

the suspects can be derived from the database of the CBS. Until 2013 this can be selected per

municipality, but from 2013 to 2018 only national indicators are available. To describe the

juvenile crime-rate in the G100.000-plus, the data per municipality from 2007 until 2013 will

be discussed. From the year 2013 onwards national crime statistics will be used.

The local municipal political attention for juvenile crimes is operationalized in the

amount of references to juveniles in the coalition agreements in a criminal context. Each of the

references will be analysed in what type of context the reference is made. In the codebook in

the appendix the rules for coding are described along with some coding examples (see appendix

A.). For this codebook, the layout of Koopman (2012) will be used as it provides a clear layout

of what is to be coded and what not (2012: 74-75) and the research resembles a similar type of

content analysis as this study.

The coalition agreements are used including frames, footnotes and the division of tasks

as they have been designed by the coalition parties. Appendices however are not incorporated

in the content analysis.

With this set of rules and procedures, the empirical analysis of the relationship between

the declining juvenile crime-rate and the municipal political attention can be examined. With

the description of the research design, data and methodology anyone can verify the results of

this research which contributes to the reliability of this study.

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5. Analysis:

Now that the topic of this study is introduced, the theories on this subject have been discussed,

hypotheses have been formulated and the methodology further explained, it’s now possible to

analyse the subject more in depth. In this chapter the hypotheses that have been formulated on

the basis of the literature review, will be tested. Although these hypotheses will be discussed

and mentioned, no conclusions will be formulated in this chapter. This chapter does however,

describe the analytical process on the basis of which these conclusions will be formed.

The chapter follows the structure of the literature review, on the basis of which three

hypotheses have been formulated. The first section of this analysis examines the first

hypothesis of this research on the topic of the decreasing juvenile crime statistics. The data

derived using the methodology as described in the previous chapter will be further analysed.

Secondly, the second and third hypothesis will be discussed. These two hypotheses describe

the same phenomenon, namely the political attention for juvenile crimes. However, these two

hypotheses each presume a different outcome in the comparison of the two different time

periods. Since the analysis can only provide one possible outcome, these two hypotheses will

be both discussed in the second section of this chapter.

5.1 Juvenile crime statistics:

The research question used in this study describes the phenomenon of a decline of the juvenile

crime-rate in The Netherlands since 2007. This topic has been addressed in the case description

(chapter two), but it’s too simple to assume that this phenomenon also applies to the

G100.000-plus municipality’s in The Netherlands. Firstly, the crime statistics of juvenile offences in 2007

will be presented. Secondly, the crime statistics of juvenile offences in 2018. Thirdly and lastly,

these two sets of data will be compared and analysed.

5.1.1 Crime statistics of juvenile offences in the G100.000-plus in 2007:

With the help of this dataset, table one

is composed. Table one describes the frequency of the

category’s ‘adult suspects’, ‘underage suspects’ and ‘suspects age unknown’ in the dataset of

registered suspects in 2007 in the 31 municipalities in The Netherlands with more than 100.000

residentials.

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Table 1. Registered suspects in the G100.000-plus in 2007. Data derived from: Statistics Netherlands

(28-03-2014), ‘Geregistreerde criminaliteit; soort misdrijf en regio 2014 (2005-2013)’, on: https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/82509NED/table?ts=1575890073702 (visited on 13-12-2019). Registered suspects N1 _% Adult2 ₁₉₈₀₀₀ _81,5% Underage2 ₄₂₀₇₅ _17,3% Age unknown3 ₂₇₄₅ _1,1% Total 242820 100%

1_{N is the frequency of suspects in this category.}

2_{Adult/underage natural persons suspected of committing a registered crime.}

3_{Number of suspects of whom neither gender nor age has been recorded in the reporting year.}

In 2007 a total of 242.820 suspects were registered in the 31 municipalities in The Netherlands

with more than 100.000 residentials. Of these registered suspects 198.000 (81,5%) were adult

suspects, 42.075 were underage suspects and of 2745 (1,1%) suspects the age was unknown

(see table one). The municipality with the most registered suspects in 2007 was the

municipality of Amsterdam with a total of 37620 registered suspects (see table five in the

appendices). The G100.000-plus municipality with the smallest number of registered suspects

in 2007 was the municipality of Alphen aan den Rijn with 2405 registered suspects (see table

five in the appendices).

5.1.2 Crime statistics of juvenile offences in the G100.000-plus in 2018:

The dataset regarding the registered suspects per municipality was insufficient in portraying

the whole timeline that is of the interest of this study, namely the period of 2007 to 2018

10

_.

Therefore, this analysis will firstly focus on the year 2013. In this year a distinction can still be

made for each of the municipalities of the sample of this study (the G100.000-plus

municipalities in The Netherlands). Afterwards, the national trends in criminal statistics in the

remaining years from 2013 until 2018 will be discussed.

In 2013 a total of 169.130 suspects have been registered in the 31 municipalities of the

G100.000-plus. Of these registered suspects a total of 149060 (88,1%) suspects were adults,

19965 (11,8%) suspects were underage and 105 (0,1%) suspects had an unknown age (see table

2). The municipality of Amsterdam had the highest number of registered suspects, namely a

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total 27740 suspects (see table five in the appendices). The municipality of Ede had the least

amount of registered suspects with a total of 1455 registered suspects (see table five in the

appendices). In table six in the appendices the number of total underage suspects are listed.

Table 2. Registered suspects in the G100.000-plus in 2013. Data derived from: Statistics Netherlands (28-03-2014), ‘Geregistreerde

criminaliteit; soort misdrijf en regio 2014 (2005-2013)’, on:

https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/82509NED/table?ts=1575890073702 (visited on 13-12-2019). Registered suspects N1 _% Adult2 ₁₄₉₀₆₀ _88,1% Underage2 ₁₉₉₆₅ _11,8% Age unknown3 ₁₀₅ _0,1% Total 169130 100%

1_{N is the frequency of suspects in this category.}

2_{Adult/underage natural persons suspected of committing a registered crime.}

For 2018 a different dataset has been used which specified on age categories, not on the legal

category’s ‘underage’ and ‘of age suspects’ that was used in the previous dataset. On the basis

of this dataset, an analysis is possible on the age of the suspects by using two age categories:

twelve to seventeen and eighteen and older. Due to these differences in categorizing the number

of suspects differs from the previous used dataset, but it does give the possibility to identify a

trend in juvenile crime statistics from 2013 onward to 2018.

Table 3. Total number of registered suspects in The Netherlands from 2013 to 2018. Data derived from: Statistics Netherlands (28-03-2019),

‘Verdachten van misdrijven; leeftijd, geslacht en recidive’, on:

https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/dataset/81997NED/table?ts=1576745606451 (visited on 18-12-2019). Registered suspects 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-17 years old1 25820 23850 22970 21350 19260 16150 18 years and older1 206080 193340 175580 163880 151600 141070 Unknown Age 2320 2030 1880 1660 1700 158890 Total 234220 219220 200430 186890 172560 158890

1 _{Age of natural persons suspected of committing a registered crime.}

In table three can be seen that the number of registered suspects in the age group of 12-17 years

old has declined from 25.820 registered suspects in 2013 (11% of total suspects that year) to

16.150 registered suspects in 2018 (10,2% of total suspects that year). This is a -37,5% decline

in this age group in the years 2013 to 2018. On a national scale therefor has been a decline in

the juvenile crime-rate.

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5.1.3 Analysis and comparison:

Now that both the 2007 and 2018 crime statistics of juvenile offences in G100.00-plus have

been described, it’s now possible to compare these results and see how these crime statistics

have developed over time.

In the G100.000-plus the total number of suspects has declined from 242.820 suspects

in 2007 to 169.130 suspects in 2013, a decline of over 30,3% (table one and two). The underage

suspects have declined from 42.075 suspects in 2007 to 19.965 suspects in 2013, a decline of

over 52,5% (table one and two). Each of the municipalities in G100.000-plus has experienced

this decline in the juvenile crime-rate, as can been seen in figure one. The municipality with

the largest relative decline in juvenile offences was the municipality of Nijmegen. In 2007 this

municipality had a juvenile crime-rate of 1350 juvenile offences, in 2013 a total of 365 juvenile

offences (see figure four and table five). The municipality with the smallest relative decline

was the municipality of Haarlemmermeer with a decline of 35,3%. In 2007 this municipality

had a juvenile crime-rate of 675 juvenile offences, in 2013 a total of 430 juvenile offences (see

figure four and table five).

Figure 4. The number of underage suspects in large municipalities in The Netherlands in 2007 and 2013. Data derived from: Statistics

Netherlands (28-03-2014), ‘Geregistreerde criminaliteit; soort misdrijf en regio 2014 (2005-2013)’, on:

Kwam 100 x voor

745 1565 565 875 5455 1170 1170 1350 570 1020 570 1770 715 975 3565 1370 805 ₆₇₅ 1095 650 960 525 1350 5190 1470 2290 665 ₅₀₀ 755 785 910 310 815 305 500 2975 425 370 450 ₃₀₀ 590 ₂₈₅ 505 ₂₄₅ 425 1940 565 ₄₂₅ ₄₃₀ ₄₁₀ 300 365 310 365 2745 600 1170 360 ₂₂₀ 475 475 310 AL KM AA R AL ME RE AL PH EN AA N D EN RI J N AM ER SFO OR T AM ST ER DA M AP EL DO OR N AR NH EM BR ED A DE LF T DO RD RE CH T ED E EI N DH OV EN EM ME N EN SC HE DE S -G RA VE NH AG E GR ON I NG EN HA AR LE M HA AR LE MM ER ME ER ' S- H ER TO GE NB OS CH LE EU WA RD EN LE I DE N MA AS TR I CH T NI J ME GE N RO TT ER DA M TI L BU RG UT RE CH T VE NL O WE ST LA ND ZA AN ST AD ZO ET ER ME ER ZW OL LE NUM B E R OF UNDE R AGE S US P E C T S IN T H E M U N IC IP A L IT Y .

MUNICIPALITIES IN THE G100.000-PLUS ON THE 1ST OF JANUARY 2019. SOURCE: CBS (2019)

N U M B E R O F U N D E R A G E S U S P E C T S I N T H E G 1 0 0 . 0 0 0 - P L U S I N 2 0 0 7 A N D 2 0 1 3

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Figure 5. Total number of underage suspects in the G100.000-plus and The Netherlands from 2005 to 2013. Data derived from: Statistics

Netherlands (28-03-2014), ‘Geregistreerde criminaliteit; soort misdrijf en regio 2014 (2005-2013)’, on:

When the juvenile crime-rate from 2005 to 2013 in the G100.000-plus is compared to the

national juvenile crime-rate in The Netherlands, it reveals that the crime-rate in the

G100.000-plus follows the national declining trend but that the decline is less steep as the national

crime-rate (see figure five). It’s therefore assumable that the juvenile crime-crime-rate from 2013 to 2018

in the G100.000-plus follows the national juvenile crime-rate as depicted in table three. This

however cannot be backed with a dataset of the juvenile crime-rate during these years in the

G100.000-plus.

5.2 Political attention:

Political attention in this study refers to the number of times a topic is addressed in a local

municipal coalition agreement. Since our study focuses on the time-frame of 2007 and 2018,

the coalition agreements of 2006 and 2018 will be analysed in this section of the research.

Firstly, the coalition agreements formed after the 2006 local municipal elections are analysed.

Secondly, those formed after the 2018 local municipal elections. Note that although the

G100.00-plus constitutes of 31 municipalities, only 27 municipal coalition agreements will be

analysed in the two timeframes. This is due to the difficult availability of the 2006 municipal

coalition agreements

11

_.

11_{For more information see the methods section in chapter four.}

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total number of underage suspects from 2005 to 2013

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5.2.1 Political attention in local politics for juvenile offences in 2006:

In 2006 a total of 542 references to juveniles were identified in the 27 municipal coalition

agreements formed after the 2006 municipal elections in The Netherlands. Of these 542

references, 78 (14%) referred to juveniles in the context of criminal behaviour and/or crime

prevention (see figure six). The majority of the references, 464 (86%) references, did refer to

juveniles as a group but not in a context of criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention.

Figure 6. References to juveniles in the coalition agreements of 27 municipalities in 2006.

The most references to juveniles in a context of criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention

were made in the municipality of Utrecht. In the coalition agreement formed after the 2006

municipal elections in this municipality, a total of 70 references were made to juveniles of

which 14 (20%) referred to juveniles in a context of criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention

(see table seven in the appendices). The municipality with the least amount of references to

juveniles in the coalition agreement in 2006 is the municipality of Venlo. No references were

identified to juveniles neither in a context of criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention nor

in any other way (see table seven in the appendices).

5.2.2 Political attention in local politics for juvenile offences in 2018:

In 2018 a total of 481 references were identified in the 27 municipal coalition agreements

formed after the 2018 municipal elections in The Netherlands. Of these 481 references, 42

(9%) referred to juveniles in a context of criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention and 439

(91%) did not (see figure seven).

n = 78, 14% n = 464, 86%

References to juveniles in the

coalition agreements of 2006

Criminal context Non-criminal context

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Figure 7. References to juveniles in the coalition agreements of 27 municipalities in 2018.

The municipality with the most reference to juveniles in a context of criminal behaviour and/or

crime prevention is the municipality of Almere. In the coalition agreement of this municipality

a total of 32 references are made to juveniles, of which 8 (25%) in a context of criminal

behaviour and/or crime prevention (see table seven in the appendices). Multiple municipalities

in this election year have no references to juveniles in a context of criminal behaviour and/or

crime prevention in their coalition agreements (see table seven in the appendices). The

municipality with overall the least amount of references to juveniles is the municipality of

Westland with 3 references to juveniles (see table seven in the appendices).

5.2.3 Analysis and comparison:

When the two coding schemes of the coalition agreements of 2006 (appendix B) and 2018

(appendix C) are compared, the first notable difference that stands out is the overall decline of

references to juveniles in the 2018 set of coalition agreements. In the coalition agreements

formed after the 2006 municipal elections a total of 542 references are made to juveniles, in

the 2018 coalition agreements 481 (see table four). This decline is less visible in the references

to juveniles not in the context of criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention. These types of

references declined from 464 references in 2006 to 439 references in 2018; a decline of five

percent (see table four). The references to juveniles in a context of criminal behaviour and/or

crime prevention however shows a large decrease. In 2006 78 of these references were

identified, in 2018 42; a decline of over 46 percent (see table four).

n = 42; 9% n = 439; 91%

References to juveniles in the

coalition agreements of 2018

Criminal context Non-criminal context

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Table 4. Types of references to juveniles in the coalition agreements of 2006 and 2018.

A municipality with a large decline in the number of references to juveniles in a context of

criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention is the municipality of Utrecht. In 2006 the coalition

agreement contained fourteen references to juveniles in the context of criminal behaviour

and/or crime prevention, in 2018 no such references could be identified (see table seven in the

appendices). The only notable large increase in references in a context of criminal behaviour

and/or crime prevention could be identified in the coalition agreements of the municipality of

Almere. In 2006 the coalition agreement contained two of such references, the coalition

agreement of 2018 contained eight of these references; an increase of 300 percent (see table

seven in the appendices).

Type of reference 2006 2018 Relative change

in percentages

References to juveniles in a context of criminal behaviour

and/or crime prevention

78 42 -46%

References to juveniles (other)

464 439 -5%

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6. Conclusion:

Now that the topic of this study has been introduced, from the literature expectations are

formulated, the empirical analysis over this research has been conducted, now an answer to the

research question of this study can be formulated. This forms the first section of this chapter.

The second section of this study will elaborate on the contributions this study brings to theory.

Thirdly, a discussion on the topic of this research is formulated. In the fourth section of this

chapter some recommendations derived from the results of this research will be suggested to

the reader.

6.1 Answer to the research question:

The research question of this study was: To what extent has the decrease of the juvenile crime

rates in The Netherlands since 2007 impacted municipal political attention for the subject?

The first hypothesis of this research indicated a decline of the juvenile crime-rate since 2007

in the sample of the empirical analysis of this study, the G100.000-plus municipalities in The

Netherlands. From the empirical data collected in this research we can affirm this hypothesis

as strong supporting evidence was found that indicated a decline of the juvenile crime-rate in

the G100.00-plus.

The second and third hypothesis of the research both discussed the dependent variable

of this study; the municipal political attention for juvenile crimes. The second hypothesis

expected a decline of the municipal political attention for juvenile crimes. The third hypothesis

expected no decline of the municipal political attention. In the sample of 27 municipalities of

the G100.000-plus, the coalition agreements formed after the municipal elections of 2006 and

2018 were analyzed. The number of times that juveniles were mentioned in these documents

declined from 542 references in 2006 to 481 references in 2018; a decline in political attention

for juveniles of eleven percent. The number of times juveniles were mentioned in a context of

criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention decreased from 78 of these references in 2006 to

42 of these references in 2018; a decline in political attention for juveniles in a context of

criminal behaviour and/or crime prevention of 46%. This study thus shows strong convincing

evidence that affirms the second hypothesis that a decline in the juvenile crime-rate has led to

a decline of the municipal political attention for juvenile crimes in The Netherlands. The

declining juvenile crime-rate had a decreasing effect on the municipal political attention for

juvenile crimes. No evidence could be found to affirm the third hypothesis and thus is rejected

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on the basis of the empirical results of this research. The crime drop in juvenile crime statistics

is accompanied by a drop in municipal political attention for the topic.

6.2 Contributions to theory:

Since this study has analyzed the coalition agreements of 27 municipalities in The Netherlands

and found strong supporting evidence that a decline of the juvenile crime-rate also causes a

decline of municipal political attention for the subject. This confirms the statement of Becker

& Boogers (2006) that municipal coalition agreements provide a good picture of social

developments in the political-administrative context at the time (2006: 2).

Moreover, this research adds to the call for papers of the academic journal ‘Tijdschrift

voor Criminologie’ for papers on the topic of juvenile crime. Although the fact that the

conceptual lens of this research is more aligned towards the field of public administration, it

adds to the academic literature related to the prevention of juvenile crimes and how it should

be dealt with by local municipal governments.

Thirdly, this research has renewed the interest for coalition agreements and the

empirical value of these documents as a ‘snapshot’ of the context and political-administrative

issues at the time. These documents have great potential for further analysis by for example

longitudinal studies.

6.3 Discussion:

The topic of interest of this research was not focused on the causes of the decline of the juvenile

crime-rate since 2007. The numbers and figures as provided by the Statistics Netherlands, are

handled as the actual data that has not been skewed by a different method of registration, the

use of different categories or different methods in the prosecution of juveniles. The small

design of this study lacked the money, time and resources to verify this data in a different

empirical study.

Moreover, this study has only researched the G100.000-plus municipalities in The

Netherlands. Therefore, the results of this study could not simply be generalized for all of the

municipalities of The Netherlands. This study has shown the effect of a declining juvenile

crime-rate on the municipal political attention for this topic in the G100.000-plus

municipalities. Generalizing this result for the whole of The Netherlands is not encouraged.

Due to the focus on the G100.000-plus municipalities some regions of The Netherlands

were not researched by this study. The G100.000-plus municipalities are more prominent in

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the ‘Randstad’ of The Netherlands in the west of the country. The province of Zeeland, which

has no municipalities with more than 100.000 residents, for example has not been incorporated

in this research.

Finally, the academic literature of this study only focused on the topic of security and

the prevention of crime. Therefore, the codebook could only research this topic in the coalition

agreements, while a multitude of topics are mentioned in these coalition documents. This

research is relatively small in light of the existence of all of these issues in the coalition

agreements. This study therefore advocates for a more in-depth, larger and systematic research

on all of these topics. For example, an annual research on the topics discussed in the coalition

agreements following each election. In this way larger trends in the prevalence of certain topics

can be distinguished.

6.4 Recommendations:

For the empirical analysis of this study a relatively large portion of documents had to be

requested by various municipalities in The Netherlands. This study therefor encourages others

to use this data-set as a start for new research. The coalition agreements of both 2006 and 2018

contain numerous topics that haven’t even been mentioned in this research, but are of large

value as this research has tried to indicate.

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Crime drop, attention drop?