Reducing phosphorus loss and demand in the Netherlands An interdisciplinary approach to future phosphorus usage in Dutch maize cultivation

Reducing phosphorus loss and demand in the Netherlands

An interdisciplinary approach to future phosphorus usage in Dutch maize

cultivation

Abstract

Phosphorus use has been rapidly increasing in the last 70 years. The growing demand has led to increasing concerns about marked overcrowding and phosphorus stock depletion. Availability of phosphorus fertilizer is essential to maintain current and secure future food production. In order to secure food security and protect Dutch farmers from volatile phosphorus fertilizer pricing in the nearby future, effort must be made to reduce the need for phosphorus fertilizer inputs within the Dutch agricultural system. In this paper the current situation concerning phosphorus use in the cultivation of maize in the Netherlands is discussed. Solution for reducing the need for phosphorus are examined, and technological advances in the development of better phosphorus management practices and in increasing the our understanding of phosphorus acquisition mechanisms in food crops are discussed. Based on findings from this literary assay recommendations are made to the Dutch ministry of Agriculture highlighting promising solutions that will decrease the dependence of Dutch agricultural practices on phosphorus imports from abroad. We recommend further research in the development of new crop varieties and phosphorus fertilizers, inoculation of the soil with microorganisms, stimulation of open innovation, and the development of efficient phosphorus recovery from waste water. The switch to phosphorus efficient maize varieties alone is estimated to lead to a cost reduction of €172.000,- on an annual basis under current phosphorus fertilizer pricing.

Content

Abstract ... 1

1. Introduction... 3

2. Theoretical Framework ... 5

2.1 Phosphorus extraction from natural resources and future phosphorus supply ... 5

2.2 Phosphorus acquisition in food crop production ... 7

2.4 Sustainable, economic feasible innovation in phosphorus useFout! Bladwijzer niet gedefinieerd. 3. Problem Definition ... 9

4. Interdisciplinary integration ... 11

5. Selected Method and Data ... 12

6. Results ... 14

6.1 The current situation concerning phosphorus use in the Netherlands ... 14

6.2 Technological opportunities for improving phosphorus use efficiency ... 16

6.3 Assessing economic feasibility and economic gains of the proposed solutions for Dutch agriculture ... 19

7. Conclusion ... 22

8. Discussion ... 24

1. Introduction

Phosphorus stocks are declining worldwide due to an ever increasing demand from the world’s food production systems. Ninety percent of the known phosphate rock stock is controlled by only five countries, namely Morocco, Jordan, South Africa, the United States and China, and overcrowding of the phosphorus marked is looming, leading to volatile fertilizer prices and decreased food security (Clabby, 2010; The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), 2012). Phosphorus is an irreplaceable component of all life. Phosphorus for example forms the backbone of DNA, and is a key component of cell membrane structure. Small scale agriculture, before the Green Revolution, relied on small concentrations of phosphorus present in the soil, and early farmers replenished this phosphorus stock using manure and compost. However industrialized and intensified agricultural production originating from the Green Revolution in the 1960s have led to phosphorus depletion of arable land, making crop production dependent on an input of phosphorus fertilizer (Childers et al., 2011). This phosphate fertilizer is mined from finite phosphate rock stocks, leading to a dependence of food security in phosphorus importing countries on policies set by exporting countries.

Furthermore, scientist are warning for a so called peak phosphorus, after which phosphorus production has reached its maximum while demand is still growing (Clabby, 2010). With the world’s population expected to reach 9.2 billion in 2050, food production is needed to increase with 70 percent in order to feed this growing population. Peak phosphorus is expected to occur within the coming decades (FAO, 2009; The Global Phosphorus Research Initiative, 2010). Since about ninety percent of all known phosphate rock reserves is controlled by only five countries, concerns on current phosphorus usage are influencing policy on more efficient phosphorus use (Nixon, 1995; Beardsley, 2011).

The Netherlands is a large agricultural exporter, and according to the Government of the Netherlands (2017) the largest exporter of agricultural produce in the European Union. Due to the relative size of the Dutch agricultural system, this paper is focused at reducing the phosphorus needs in food crop production in the Netherlands. The focus of this paper will be on improving the phosphorus uptake in maize specifically, due to the fact that maize has a substantial economic value in the Dutch agricultural system, with production reaching 8,302,618 tonnes in 2016 (CBS, 2016)

In this paper current practices in phosphorus mining and usage are discussed. Next, innovations and strategies for increasing phosphorus use efficiency in food production systems are discussed, including the engineering of phosphorus efficient food crop varieties and

recycling of phosphorus from waste streams. After identifying solutions, they will be analysed for economically feasibility and the effects of implementation on phosphorous use. A cost reduction of implementing a phosphorus efficient maize varieties on phosphorus imports will further be calculated in order to illustrate the magnitude of possible cost reduction.

2. Theoretical Framework

2.1 Phosphorus extraction from natural resources and future phosphorus supply Peak phosphorus implicates a peak in the

phosphate rock production, while demand is still growing (see figure 1). According to Cordell & White (2011), peak phosphorus is based on 8 assumptions: starting with the notion that phosphate rock reserves are non-renewable resources, as phosphate rock formation requires 10.000.000 to 100.000.000 years. Furthermore, surface rock quality is higher than that of deeper

layers, as the purest deposits – containing a larger P2O5 fraction – are situated at the top sediment layers. Therefore, phosphate rock quality decreases over (exploitation) time, when deeper layers are mined. This implicates that – over time – more energy is needed to extract the same phosphorus concentrations. Thereby – at homogenous extraction rates – more waste products will be created. However, extraction rates, energy and extraction cost will increase in the long term (Cordell & White, 2011). Distinctive for peak phosphorus is the exponential rate at which extraction rates expand. However, extraction efficiency is expected to decrease after 50 percent of the phosphate rock reserve has been depleted, due to the difficulty of mining the phosphorus situated deeper beneath the surface. Globally, phosphorus demand will persist in the future. At last, all these assumptions will lead to a demand that is larger than the feasible extraction of phosphate rock (Cordell & White, 2011). However, mining efficiency can be improved by using new mining technologies, increasing the economic feasibility of exploiting previously unreachable phosphorus stocks (van Enk et al., 2011).

To understand peak phosphorus theory, an overview of current phosphorus situation is presented here. World's phosphorus stocks can be categorized within three forms, namely guano, igneous phosphorus stocks, and sedimentary phosphorus stocks. Guano originates from bird droppings (van Enk et al., 2011 & Brunner, 2010). In the current world phosphorus stocks, negligible amounts of guano are left. Igneous phosphates constitute an estimated 4 percent of total phosphorus stocks (Notholt et al., 2005). The majority of phosphate rock reserves are Figure 1 A model of projected phosphorus production rates and reserves plotted against actual data. This figure shows that phosphorus production seems to follow projections made in the peak phosphorus theory, although max production has not yet been reached. Reprinted from Peak Phosphorus: Clarifying the Key Issues of a Vigorous Debate about Long-Term Phosphorus Security, by Cordell, D.; White, S, Sustainability 2011, 3, 2027-2049.

present as sedimentary phosphates (van Enk et al., 2011). A simplified visualization of traditional phosphorus sources and reserves can be seen in figure 2.

Van Enk et al (2011) distinguishes discovered and undiscovered reserves and their economic feasibility, see figure 3. Measured reserves are proven by drilling. Indicated and inferred resources contain a certain margin of error. The economic feasibility is defined by economic, marginal economic and sub economic. Marginal economic represents marginal exploitation profits, whereas sub economic represent potential profitable reserves in coming years. Undiscovered resources have not actually been defined as resources, but could – possibly – be present. The exact research on which van Enk et al., (2011) assumes the presence of undiscovered resources remains unclear. The paper seems to pretend that not all of the earth surface has been searched for phosphorus presence. These reserves are, therefore hypothetically and speculative (van Enk et al., 2011). The inclusion of sub-economic reserves in the reserve base, which peak phosphorus is based on, implicates potential production vulnerability as future mining depends on feasible mining technologies (Cordell & White, 2011).

Regardless of phosphorus stock depletion, overcrowding of the phosphorus market is expected to occur within the coming decades (HCSS, 2012). In order to examine what measurements can be taken in order to decrease the need for phosphorus in food production systems, the theory behind phosphorus acquisition by food crops will be discussed in the next section.

Figure 2: Simplified phosphorus sources and compositions (van Enk et al., 2011 & Brunner, 2010).

2.2 Phosphorus acquisition in food crop production Phosphorus uptake efficiency is the ability of

the plant the absorb and utilize phosphorus from the soil in order to grow and reproduce. Enhancing this ability can lead to great reductions in phosphorus needed in fertilizer, hereby decreasing the need for phosphorus fertilizer in food crop production . In order to develop crop varieties with a higher P use efficiency, plant breeders are aiming to identify the genes underlying a high phosphorus uptake in plant varieties naturally

occurring in phosphorus poor soils (Tian et al., 2012; Ramaekers et al., 2010). Current consensus in biotechnology states that phosphorus uptake in plants is regulated by genes regulating root structure, the ability of the plant to release acids mobilizing fixated phosphorus, phosphorus transporters, and phosphorus signalling (see figure 4).

One of the techniques used for research in the development of crop varieties is quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis (Shenoy & Kalagudi, 2005). A QTL analysis aims to correlate loci to a phenotypical trait, in order to identify genes underlying the trait (Miles & Wayne, 2008). Loci is plural for locus, and describes a location on a chromosome. A trait can be regulated by genes located on several loci.

Once genes associated with phosphorus uptake efficiency have been identified by QTL analysis, breeding companies can either built them into the genome of a certain food crop through genetic modification, or by crossing different plant varieties using marker assisted selection (Collard & Mackill, 2008). Marker assisted selection makes use of molecular markers, for example a small repeating sequence or single nucleotide polymorphism associated with the gene underlying the desired trait. This way plants can be selected after a genetic screening, instead by measuring phosphorus uptake efficiency for each plant. However, plant breeding is a cost and time intensive process, so the advantages of developing phosphorus efficient crop varieties in order to facilitate sustainable phosphorus management must have financial benefits as well for the corporations involved.

Figure 4 Current consensus in biotechnology concerning phosphorus aqcuisition by plants. Genes believed to regulate the different traits are also shown in this figure. Reprinted from Bioengineering and management for efficient phosphorus utilization in crops and pastures, by Tian et al., Current Opinion in Biotechnology, 23(6), 866-871.

2.3 Sustainable, economic feasible innovation of phosphorus use

According to the World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), sustainable processes meet the needs of the present without counteract the needs of future generations. Giddens et al. (2002) mention that the three dimensions of sustainable development (economy, environment and society) need to be balanced, but in reality economy is the dominant factor. Economy has a dominant position in contrast to environment and society whereby large global businesses control decision making. In collaboration with the government, they do not give equal consideration to the outside of the market. Therefore it would be necessary for food industries in the Netherlands to look closer at open innovation. Grant (2016) emphasized that with open innovation, firms share their knowledge and communicate with each other instead of keeping the information for themselves. Hence open innovation could restore the balance between the three dimensions.

Because the technical feasibility is widely studied and the economic feasibility is not, firms and industries have to work together to find proper solutions (Molinos-Senante et al., 2011). Phosphorus recovery projects could be economically feasible, when it is correctly analyzed with a cost-benefit analysis. Molinos-Senante et al. (2011) emphasize the importance of the investigation in internal and external benefits and costs, because without one of these components, the result will be negative. In this report, research will be done to the difference between the current costs of phosphorus use and the costs with innovative techniques.

3. Problem Definition

The problems emerging from declining phosphorus stock can be considered complex due to the many stakeholders and subsystems. This makes the problem suited for an approach taking in account the aspects of complexity thinking. According to Boulton and Allen (2007), complexity thinking in general is a so-called mechanical worldview, relevant in a potentially fast-changing world. In contrast to the traditional worldview, where the world is predictable and measurable, complexity theory is a different approach in which we try to investigate life in a radical way. Therefore, the complexity worldview introduce a new view on organizations’, marketplaces’ and political infrastructures’ behaviour. There are different basic principles. Some essential principles are discussed here; ‘There is more than one possible future’, meaning that a system can exist in multiple states, ‘Tipping’, or the collapse of a system into another (undesired) state, ‘Need for interconnectivity’ between the multiple stakeholders making up the system. (Boulton&Allen, 2007). These principles of complexity have certain aspects in common. Namely, the uncertainty and unknowability of (future) events or outcomes and complex adjustments in existing systems. In the end, chaos and helplessness will not be the result of embracing complexity.

Complexity is strongly related to interdisciplinary research.. The broad perspective in which this interdisciplinary research takes place, provides an overview of all connections between different systems. For example the food processing industries which use phosphorus, crops itself, the Dutch ministry, mining activities and the ecosystems in which these nutrients end up after flowing out of the system. By integrating complexity, recurring theories can be understood. Thereby, more effective measures can be taken. Dominant concepts in interdisciplinary problems are connectivity, meaning the influence each part of the system on each other, emergence, hierarchy, stating the diverent roles of each system componend, diversity between stakeholders, and nonlinearity, due to which a system can react disproportionally to a disturbance. Hierarchy within food industries as a concept of complexity occurs when actors in different levels require different approaches.

Since this research is interdisciplinary in nature, the theoretical framework laid out above is integrated into an interdisciplinary research problem, with a number of sub questions, which are described in this paragraph. Combining the increased need for, and declining stocks of phosphorus, with the undesirable dependence on import from unstable countries, and the environmental problems accompanying bad practices, the need for more sustainable, better practices in the future is clear. These combined aspects of the research problem lead to the

following research question: How can current phosphorus use in the cultivation of maize in the Netherlands be reduced to ensure feasible, sustainable practices in the future? This research question will be answered using the following sub questions based on the theoretical frameworks.

Firstly, the present-day situation of phosphorus use is investigated to answer the sub question: How is the current situation of the use of phosphorus in the Netherlands? The different disciplines will focus on the current inflows and outflows of phosphorus, the modern biotechnological practices in the food industry, and the present-day behaviour and management regarding phosphorus in businesses, for Earth Sciences, Biology and Business Administration respectively. Subsequently, the possible opportunities for improvement on these current practices will be the possible improvements will be researched, to find out the answer to the sub question: Where lie opportunities for improvement with regards to phosphorus use in the agro industry in the Netherlands? From the viewpoint of Biology, the opportunities for bioengineering and management of efficient phosphorus utilisation in crops will be looked at, while the Business Administration focus will lie on the possible improvements for different stakeholders. From an Earth Sciences perspective, the efficiency of phosphorus mining on the one hand, and the minimisation of phosphorus outflows into the environment on the other, will be the focal point.

Lastly, the feasibility and realism of implementing the different possible solutions found will be examined with the last sub question: What are realistic solutions of reducing phosphorus use in the agro industry in the Netherlands? In order to answer this sub question, the costs and benefits of each improvement will be quantified from each disciplinary standpoint, and subsequently combined to allow for precise assessment of feasible improvements and future practices.

4. Interdisciplinary integration

The order to propose solutions for this complex problem an interdisciplinary approach is required. In figure 1 a concept mind map showing the need for such an approach is visualised. Concepts mostly involved with an earth scientific discipline are coloured brown, concepts involved with business administration are coloured grey, and concepts mostly involved with green life sciences are coloured green. Concepts linking all these together are coloured blue. This simplified concept map shows the interactions between the concepts of each discipline.

Mined P represents phosphorus used in synthetic fertilizer, and organic P represents is phosphorus recovered from waste streams. P recovery is the process of recovering phosphorus from anthropogenic waste streams. Food production represents crop production and production management, plant uptake efficiency entails the amount of crop yield that can be established with a certain amount of applied phosphorus fertilizer. Innovation is the development of new phosphorus efficient crop varieties and innovations in phosphorus recovery technology. Economic feasibility justifies corporate practices in an economical viewpoint.

5. Selected Method and Data

In this paragraph the selected method for gathering data is described and explained and new insights are presented. The method of selecting data for this particular research is mostly qualitative. The main- and sub-questions of this research are investigated using secondary research data only. Examining the data currently available allows for a first assessment in what the present-day situation is and where to go from here. Hereby, new insights were gained by examining already existing data, and combining data available in scientific publications and government publications within and between different disciplines. In this manner, this report also functions as a good indication for further research. By finding out where possible gaps in information exist, the final recommendations include topics on which more primary data could be collected.

To conduct the analysis, the three disciplines have first focused on their disciplinary knowledge. The resulting individual research reports have been used to construct this proposal. The structure has been defined by constructing a main question, as described in the paragraph of the problem definition. Furthermore, sub questions were used to systematically answer the main question. All research is based on qualitative, secondary data, which has been derived from scientific literature. Concepts linking the different disciples were identified, and defined in a manner that allows for scientific approach by each discipline.

Qualitative research is seeking information through academic, scientific literature as mentioned above. Finding the proper information for this specific topic is done by gathering data from relevant databases, such as the CBS, and by reviewing scientific literature. By minimizing our scope, finding appropriate literature was made manageable. This research is focussed on the Netherlands, phosphorus use in the agro-industry and eventually one specific crop: maize. With the research that already has been done, we try to integrate the needed, available information into our research project. These data consist of mainly data gathered in experiments described in scientific journals, and data from observational studies detailed in reports from for example the United Nations or the Dutch Ministry for Agriculture. Furthermore, quantitative data from databases like those from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Compendium for the living environment (CLO) have been utilized to create a thorough picture of the above problem and possible solutions.

emphasize the different opinions and theories within the scientific community and their advantages and disadvantages. However, there are also some limitations with this kind of research. A limiting factor of using secondary data is the absence of collected data by oneself (primary data), which is collected with a idea in mind. Therefore, the appropriateness of the data could appear as less suitable. Nevertheless should different ideas and theories about efficient phosphorus use formulated in this research illustrate the problem from different point of views.

6. Results

6.1 The current situation concerning phosphorus use in the Netherlands

The Netherlands is one of the largest food exporting nations. The yield of crops cultivated in greenhouses is larger than that of conventional agriculture, since external conditions can be controlled and optimized. New technologies have furthermore led to an additional yield increase of 17% (Heuvelink et al., 2008). Open air agriculture, has a lower yield per hectare, as these factors are more difficult to control. Micro climatic factors have, therefore a larger influence on these crops (CBS, 2017). Furthermore, possibilities to manage phosphorus outflows are more difficult in open air agriculture. This could lead to phosphorus leaching as a result of fertilizer application in open air agriculture (van der Linden et al., 2008).

The Netherlands has no economically feasible phosphate rock reserves. The Dutch Phosphorus sector therefore depends on imports of Phosphate rock (de Ridder et al., 2013). In 2005, the Netherlands imported 1.060.000 tons of P2O5. 80 percent of these imports were exported again. The net consumption was therefore 208.500 tons of P2O5 in 2005. The consumed phosphorus is to a large extent used in the agricultural sector. 102.000 tons of phosphorus is used to produce fertilizers and 98.600 tons is processed in Animal feed (van Enk et al., 2011 & de Ridder et al., 2013).

In the Netherlands, the three largest agricultural sectors are: sugar beet 5 502 200 tonnes, potatoes 6 534 338 tonnes and maize 8 302 618 tonnes (CBS, 2016). To analyse phosphorus usage in the agricultural sector in the Netherlands, maize will production has been examined, as it is the largest sector in the Netherlands. Especially maize cultivated at sandy soils has been examined, as sandy soils have larger pore spaces, making them permeable to water (Fredlund & Huang, 1994). These soils have, therefore a larger phosphorus leaching potential. This is further defined by van Enk et al (2011) as phosphate precipitation tendency. Currently, of the total phosphorus usage in agriculture, 40 percent is ‘lost’. This is caused by inefficiency in application and plant uptake. The excess phosphorus dissolves in water and leaches into the soil. Most of the leached phosphates accumulate in top soils, the remaining fraction is washed away by surface runoff.

In order to analyse current phosphorus use and efficiency in the Dutch maize sector, potential losses have been calculated. The first step in the calculation process is therefore to determine the amount of maize cultivated on sandy soils. In total, 210,000 hectares are used to cultivate maize (CBS, 2016). As can be derived from the map figure 6, most of the sandy soils with a higher leaching potential occur in the eastern and southern provinces of the Netherlands. The three largest maize cultivation areas are situated in the provinces of Overijssel; 35,514 hectares, Gelderland; 38,216 hectares and Noord-Brabant 53,782 hectares. Combined, Overijssel, Gelderland and Noord-Brabant accounted for 60.7 percent of the total cultivated maize area, see figure 6. These provinces produced 5,296,629 tons of maize in 2016, which is 63,4 percent of the total maize yield in the Netherlands. Figure 7 depicts soil compositions in the Netherlands (CBS, 2000). If the soil composition in this figure is compared to the total surface area of provinces Overijssel, Gelderland and Noord-Brabant, approximately 80 percent of the surface area has a sandy soil. Subsequently, this percentage can be used to calculate the Figure 6 :Maize cultivation area per province (2016) Figure 7: The two main soil compositions in the Netherlands (CBS,

current maize area on sandy soils, which is 0.8 * 210000 = 168,000 hectares of maize on sandy soils.

Van Schooten et al (2016), describes phosphorus needs per hectare maize in the Netherlands. Phosphorus needs of maize are based on a PW-value, which is the phosphorus need per hectare. Sandy soils have higher PW- value (30 pw), than sea clay (25 pw). Moreover, additional phosphorus application can be required to compensate low natural soil values (van Schooten et al., 2016). The Dutch government has set the maximal phosphate application in the Netherlands to 75 k/P/ha/Yr. For the sandy maize soils, this comes to a total of 12,600 tons phosphate per year (RVO, 2017). If these results are multiplied by efficiency standards as described by van Enk et al (2011), the following losses occur: 12,600 tons used * 0.40 loss = 5,040 tons phosphate. This is 0.47 percent of the total phosphate rock imports in the Netherlands (1.060.000 tons), and 4.9 percent of the total 102.000 tons used to produce fertilizer in the Netherlands.

By quantifying the phosphorus use in the maize sector in the Netherlands, the effectiveness of phosphorus saving technologies and total phosphorus costs can be determined, to form sustainable, feasible phosphorus use solutions in the Netherlands. These steps will be conducted in the next sections.

6.2 Technological opportunities for improving phosphorus use efficiency

One option to further reduce the need for phosphorus fertilizer in maize cultivation is the development of phosphorus efficient maize varieties. Research into the phosphorus acquisition of plants has led to an understanding of traits controlling uptake and genes underlying these traits (Shenoy & Kalagudi, 2005). These traits include root architecture, the ability of the plant to release acids that mobilize phosphorus in the soil, the expression of phosphorus transporter proteins, and the signalling network controlling phosphorus uptake. Microbial symbiosis also contributes to the phosphorus acquisition capabilities of the plant (Tian et al., 2012). In this paragraph research findings contributing to the development of phosphorus efficient maize varieties are discussed.

Since phosphorus efficient plant varieties make use of root systems that cover a large area close to the surface (Shenoy & Kalagudi, 2005, one strategy to develop phosphorus efficient plant varieties focusses on the genes underlying root development. The gene

a root architecture with shorter root hair length, although research into homologs regulating root hair structure in maize is still pending. However, the completion of the sequencing of the maize genome, and the development high throughput sequencing techniques, has led to new possibility for the identification of genes and comparison of gene sequences between species through phylogenetic analysis.

Another plant breeding option deals with the ability of plants to release organic acids that mobilize phosphorus fixed in the soil. Most phosphorus is fixed by iron and aluminium, making it unavailable for plant uptake. Plant can mobilize this fixed carbon by releasing protons and organic acid in their root zone (Tian et al., 2012). These protons and organic acids will compete with phosphorus in binding with iron and aluminium, hereby freeing phosphorus and making it available for plant uptake. Overexpressing genes regulating mitochondrial malate dehydrogenase from the fungi Penecillium oxalicum in tobacco, leading to increased excretion of organic acids, showed an increase of biomass of 149.0, 128.5, and 127.9 percent compared to the tobacco wildtype when grown in Al-phosphate, Fe-phosphate and Ca-phosphate medium respectively (Lü et al., 2012). Effect of transgenic incorporation of this gene into maize may thus lead to increased phosphorus use efficiency, although more research is required into the exact workings of this gene in maize varieties.

A third breeding strategy focusses on transport and useage of phosphorus within the plant. Phosphorus is transported from the environment into the cytosol of the root and other parts of the plant by high-affinity phosphorus transporters (Tian et al., 2012). Increasing the efficiency of the phosphorus transporter gene OsPT8 in rice did lead to enhanced phosphorus acquisition, but due the high toxic levels of phosphorus in plant tissue did not lead to increased biomass compared to a wildtype (Jia et al., 2011). This shows that increasing phosphorus uptake in plants has a limit after which the accumulated phosphorus becomes toxic and impairs plant growth.

Another strategy for increasing phosphorus uptake within the plants root zone focusses on symbiosis between plants and microorganisms. Since organic phosphorus represents a large fraction of phosphorus present in soil (Vincent et al., 2011). This phosphorus is unavailable for plant uptake, and has to be degraded by microorganisms living in the rhizosphere. The term “mycorrhiza’’ was coined by A.B. Frank, meaning fungi-root. There are many species of fungi present in soil, whose mycorrhizal symbiosis with plant works to dissolve and digest organic phosphorus present in the soil (Miyasaka & Habte, 2001). Plants that life in symbiosis with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are known to create a phosphorus inflow 2 to 6 fold higher than plants do not life in symbiosis with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (Miyasaka & Habte, 2001).

Inoculating maize seedlings with these fungi may decrease the need for phosphorus fertilizer due to the phosphorus dissolving abilities of the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi.

We propose that the best biotechnological solution for reducing the need for phosphorus fertilizer in Dutch maize production will consist of a combination of increasing plant-microbial interactions through inoculating the soil with micro-organisms, and the development of phosphorus efficient high yielding maize varieties. Since European legislation does not yet allow cultivation of genetically modified food crops, conventional plant breeding techniques, including marker assisted breeding, have to be applied in the development of these varieties. However, microbial inoculation of the soil will yield different results with different soil types, and the development of phosphorus efficient crop varieties through conventional breeding techniques requires more time and money than crop development through genetic engineering. More research into plant-microbial interacting is required, and research in increasing the efficiency of conventional breeding by marker assisted selection is needed in order reduce improve the efficiency of the breeding process.

6.3 Assessing economic feasibility and economic gains of the proposed solutions for Dutch agriculture

Nowadays the Netherlands is fully dependent on the phosphorus import from Morocco. The costs are high and Morocco has a monopoly position against the Netherlands. During the economic crisis around 2008, phosphate rock and fertilizer prices were suffering because of a strong increase in demand and price-setting power

by Morocco. The cause of the growing demand of phosphorus was also pressured by the global food crisis, which resulted in a 700% price increase of phosphate rock (Minemakers Limited, 2008; Cordell et al., 2009). As you could see in Figure 8, there is a price peak between 2007 and 2009, during the economic and global food crisis. Afterwards the price of phosphate rock is still larger than it originally was (Lécuyer, 2014). Because of the depletion of phosphorus, Morocco can determine all prices by itself. This is a negative consequence for the Netherlands because of their dependence of phosphorus from Morocco. However, as mentioned above, improvements in phosphorus use efficiency could reduce the dependence.

As mentioned in the theoretical framework, innovative projects could be economically feasible which could be studied by a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (Molinos-Senante et al., 2011). To argue if phosphorus recovery processes mentioned above are economically feasible or not, a distinction between internal and external benefits has been made. Eventually we compare the current situation of phosphorus use within the agro-industry of the Netherlands with the project of using phosphorus more efficient by effective plant uptake as mentioned above.

The external benefits contains the positive externalities minus the negative externalities. According to Molinos-Senante et al (2011) external benefits concern any consequences resulting from phosphorus recovery projects and how it affects people. Because we cannot miss phosphorus in everyday life, the scarcity of the natural resource is frightening. Therefore a positive externality is the decline in phosphate rock depletion through phosphorus recovery by phosphorus-using industries. For this reason the innovative project for efficient phosphorus uptake by plants has a positive consequence on the environment and humankind.

The internal benefits, which includes costs and cost reductions are computed in the current situation and the new situation. In the current situation, mentioned in paragraph 6.1, there is a loss of 5,040 tons phosphate which is a 0.47 percent of the total phosphate rock imports in the Netherlands. When applying the phosphorus use reduction project in which phosphorus efficient maize varieties are used, this loss could be reduced. As mentioned in paragraph 6.2, the best biotechnological solution for reducing the need for phosphorus fertilizers in the Netherlands consist of a combination of increasing plant-microbial interactions, and the development of phosphorus efficient high yielding maize varieties. With this improvement, an accession of biomass of circa 125 percent could occur.

In the Netherlands are 210,000 hectares used to cultivate maize, of which 168,000 hectares is maize cultivated on sandy soil (CBS, 2016). This implies a need of 12,600 tons phosphate per year (RVO, 2017). The import prices of phosphate rock from Morocco are not constant and fluctuate each month. In Table 1 phosphate rock prices in US dollar per metric ton are displayed, and in euro per metric ton, from January 2017 until November 2017.

Morocco Phosphate Rock Price Summary

USD/metric ton EU/metric ton

Last (current) Value 80.00 67.91

Latest period Nov 2017 Nov 2017

Frequency Monthly Monthly

Value Jan 2017 99.00 83.92 Value Feb 2017 98.00 83.08 Value Mar 2017 98.00 83.08 Value Apr 2017 96.00 81.38 Value May 2017 93.00 78.84 Value Jun 2017 93.00 78.84 Value Jul 2017 88.00 74.60 Value Aug 2017 87.00 73.75 Value Sept 2017 84.00 71.21 Value Oct 2017 80.00 67.91 Value previously 80.00 67.91

Value one year ago (2016) 104.00 88.28

Change from one year ago -23.08% -23.08%

Table 1: Current phosphate rock prices per metric ton. Retrieved on 7-12-2017 from, https://ycharts.com/indicators/morocco_phosphate_rock_price In estimating the price of phosphate rock imported from Morocco the Netherlands has to pay per year, we focus on the maize cultivated on sandy soils. For sandy maize soils there is a need of 12,600 tons phosphate per year (RVO, 2017). Subsequently we multiply this amount with the current phosphate rock price, which is 12,600* 67.91 = 855,666.00 euro. This is a

corresponds with 100 percent under 80 percent phosphorus conditions. This estimation could lead to the following calculations: 12,600 ton phosphate * 80 percent = 10,080 ton phosphate per year. This is a reduction of 2,520 phosphate per year. Furthermore, an estimation of the total costs per year will be: 10,080 ton * 67.91 euro = 684,532.80 euro for phosphate rock in one year, with the phosphate rock price of November 2017. As a result of applying these innovative techniques in plants for phosphorus recovery, a cost reduction of 855,666.00 euro - 684,532.80 = 171,133.20 euro is calculated and determined.

In the next paragraph the conclusion of this report will be formulated. The research question of this report will be repeated and results combined.

7. Conclusion

The research question of our paper is: “How can current phosphorus practices in the food industry in the Netherlands be improved to ensure feasible, sustainable practices in the future?”. In the Netherlands phosphorus use has been analysed by examining the present phosphorus flows in maize producing agriculture. To ensure economic strength, markets prefer stability in their processes. Phosphorus production efficiency delays the depletion time of phosphate rock reserves, reducing import fluctuations. Phosphorus independence can furthermore be achieved by reducing phosphorus use. Although currently phosphorus use restrictions are imposed by the Dutch government, phosphorus losses do still occur. Sandy soils – which contain most of the cultivated maize in the Netherlands – have a higher leaching potential. Up to 40 percent of the used phosphate is lost, either through soil accumulation, or runoff, causing large economic losses. After analysing the losses of phosphorus in the maize sector in the Netherlands, 5.040 tons of phosphate are precipitated in top soils, or washed away, at a cost of € 4 million.

Solutions to increase phosphorus uptake efficiency include case specific fertilizer application; increasing phosphorus available for plant uptake by developing new fertilizers in soils. Plant uptake efficiency can be increased by adapting maize plants using plant breeding. Furthermore roots can be restructured, processes within plants improved and collaboration with other organisms stimulated, in order to increase actual phosphorus uptake and therefore create maize plants with a low phosphorus tolerance. Improving phosphorus uptake of plants results in increased phosphorus uptake efficiency. Therefore, phosphorus application rates decline, which reduces phosphorus losses. Implementing these technologies has proven to be effective in reducing current and future costs. This analysis estimates a 20 percent reduction in phosphorus use when phosphorus efficient maize crops are developed implemented. An overall cost reduction in the range of €172,000 can be achieved when looking at phosphorus use reduction in the maize sector alone.

As the markets tend to have more power in the transition to sustainability, open innovation has to be adopted to achieve the goals of phosphorus industry that is resistant to the stability of foreign phosphorus supply. These innovative markets can also kick-start

fertilizers. These processes therefore reduce future food production instability as a result of a phosphorus system that can be considered as closed. By adaption of these methods, long-term, sustainable and efficient use of phosphorus by industries could be provided.

8. Discussion

Initially part of this research was aimed at splitting the earth science perspective in inflow and outflow of phosphorus. Due to unforeseen circumstances only phosphorus inflow into Dutch agricultural systems is discussed in this paper. Research into phosphorus outflow was focussed on the redundant waste of phosphorus in the Netherlands by the agro industry. The idea of the outflow perspective was an investigation divided in the following parts:

First, the present-day situation with regard to phosphorus ‘losses’ would be described, more specifically the outflow of useful phosphorus from the food system, including how and where that outflow occurs (Tyrell, 1999; Glibert, Anderson, Gentien, Grenéli & Sellner, 2005). Subsequently, these outflows would be more closely inspected to investigate the possibilities and opportunities to minimise these ‘losses’ of usable phosphorus. Lastly, these opportunities and possible solutions should be more closely looked at in terms of feasibility, quantifying the outflows to assess which solutions have the most impact, are realistic, and therefore suitable to be included in the final recommendations (Conley et al., 2009).

Although some cost reductions were shown to be expected after implementing new efficient maize varieties, the best option for reducing the Dutch dependence on phosphorus imports lies in closing the phosphorus cycle. We recommend further research into waste water treatments aimed at regenerating phosphorus from human waste streams.

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