Traditional production of quinoa in a modern developing global market

Traditional production of quinoa in a

modern developing global market

Developing the most profitable and sustainable scenario for quinoa production on the

Bolivian Altiplano regarding food sovereignty and environmental stability.

Research project Interdisciplinary research Topic: Food sovereignty

Authors: Jonah Link, Maurits Bongenaar, Reint de Koning en Tom de Ruyter van Steveninck Supervisor: Koen van der Gaast

Expert: Crelis Rammelt

Word count: 8247 (references, tables, titles and abstract not included) 18-12-2015

The production of quinoa, a 6000-year-old crop grown by indigenous communities in the Altiplano region of Bolivia, is rapidly changing in this modern developing world. The goal of this interdisciplinary analysis is to find the most profitable and sustainable scenario for quinoa production on the Bolivian Altiplano regarding food sovereignty and environmental stability, whilst evaluating cultural values. This report involves an analysis of four different scenarios, characterized by the extremes on two different axes that were created using the scenario method: Situations of high and low market volatility and situations of export supportive and export restrictive trade policies. Using Aquacrop calculations have been made to support the scenarios with data on water usage and expected yields. In conclusion, quinoa production is currently unsustainable as soil quality is depleting and the poorest of the poor can’t meet fair-trade standards. The sector should aim for a balance of fair-trade cooperatives, organic agriculture and traditional values in order to gain food sovereignty while exploiting economic opportunities.

Table of contents

0. Abstract...1

1. Introduction...3

1.1 Research question...3

2. Theoretical Framework & Literature Analysis...4

2.1 Food Sovereignty and Food Security...4

2.2 Politics and the market...5

2.2.2 Political View on Trade...5

2.3 Stakeholder involvement...7

2.3.1 Quinoa Cooperatives...7

2.3.2 Indigenous communities...7

2.3.3 State Involvement...8

2.4 The agriculture of quinoa production...8

2.4.1 Quinoa the high-altitude crop...8

2.4.2 Growing quinoa...9

2.4.4 Water availability...10

3. Methodology...11

3.1 Scenario planning...11

3.1.1 Market volatility as driving force...12

3.1.2 Trade policy as driving force...12

3.1.3 The four scenario quadrants...13

3.2 Aquacrop...14

3.2.1 Implementing scenarios in aquacrop...15

3.2.2 Simulating in Aquacrop...15

4. Results...16

4.1 Scenario A: Quinoa Crisis Scenario...16

4.2 Scenario B: Business As Usual Scenario...16

4.3 Scenario C: Export Restrictive scenario...16

4.4 Scenario D: Clashing Interests Scenario...17

4.5 Aquacrop outcomes...17

5. Conclusion and Discussion...18

5.1 Conclusion...18

5.2 Discussion...19

Literature...20

Appendix...23

1. Introduction

Developing countries are trying to elevate out of poverty, adjusting policy and joining the international market to compete with their commodities to increase national income. Poverty usually comes together with food insecurity; still one in seven people do not have a sufficient access to nutritious food (Godfray et al., 2010). A debate in vast amount of countries is whether policy should focus on more free trade to gather more income and free people from poverty or more protectionism to protect local markets from fluctuating commodity prices. This debate is attached to the food security vs. food sovereignty debate, should a country use trade as a way to feed the malnourished or should they try and feed the people themselves. According to Hoekman and Olarreaga (2007) Bolivia is one of the poorest countries in the world. Selling minerals and hydrocarbons on the international market was one way to gain profits and elevate out of poverty.

Rising food demands has transformed all kinds of commodity trading systems and manufacturing structures (Lee, 2013). Rising profitability can be a valid argument for up scaling production quantity. On the contrary, these up scaling processes can have unfavorable side effects

such as environmental degradation or social inequality. Therefore it is important to study the effects of intensive food production as a reaction to a rising demand, and make an assessment of different scenarios while discussing their favorability. In this case study, different possible reactive scenarios will be compared regarding quinoa production on the Bolivian Altiplano.

Quinoa is a crop that has been cultivated in the highlands of Bolivia since 6000 years. In the last decade the global quinoa demand experienced a tremendous growth (Jacobsen, 2003). In this interdisciplinary case study the impacts of the rising international quinoa demand on the inhabitants of the Bolivian Altiplano (highlands) will be studied, quantified and analyzed. Which will be followed by an assessment for future production solutions. The focus of this study will be on the Bolivian Altiplano, where this rising quinoa demand has effects on a social-economic, but also on a cultural and ecological level regarding the native inhabitants, whom are mostly indigenous quinoa farmers. Rising prices of quinoa on local markets, have influenced incomes of quinoa farmers, but also decreased the affordability of quinoa for others in these highland cultures.

Considerations have to be made regarding up scaling yields by the use of more efficient techniques. Furthermore cultural preferences will be evaluated, if social alterations will be caused. This could be of importance to maintain the positive Bolivian export position while foreign countries are experimenting with producing quinoa (Jacobsen, 2003).

1.1 Research question

The following research question will be answered in this research:

- What is the most profitable and sustainable scenario for quinoa production on the Bolivian Altiplano regarding food sovereignty and environmental stability?

Regarding the disciplines of ecology, earth sciences, spatial planning and political geography, this research report contains an interdisciplinary scenario assessment on the consequences for the quinoa production of Bolivia in the case of four different scenarios. The following paragraph will contain a theoretical background that was found during four separate disciplinary researches. This background provides us with a framework describing the political situation in Bolivia. Furthermore several stakeholders are being highlighted. This analysis will be used as starting point for the four scenarios that will be drawn. In the third paragraph the scenario method will be explained followed by a description of the program Aquacrop that will be used to calculate our results. In the fourth paragraph our results will be presented that will answer the research question above. The last paragraph will contain a conclusion and discussion where several recommendations to the stakeholders will be presented.

2. Theoretical Framework & Literature Analysis

The theoretical framework of this paper consists several components to support the scenarios that will be presented in the section Results. These components are studied from different disciplines in order to provide us the interdisciplinary results that are necessary to answer the research question that was presented in the introduction. First the debate of Food Sovereignty and Food Security will be presented as this discussion represents the core of our analysis. The political decisions that have been made can have significant impact on agricultural land use, poverty and Bolivia's comparative advantage position on the global market. The concepts of Food Sovereignty and Food Security are therefore convenient to this research, as they will provide us two contradicting playing fields in which the production of quinoa can shift in the future.

2.1 Food Sovereignty and Food Security

The discussion between a food system in which commercialization and increased market involvement are fundamental principles in a food system where policymakers seek protection for small scale production under indigenous communities for the national market. This can be simplified towards a discussion about food security versus food sovereignty. Food sovereignty is a term first introduced by La Via Campesina, the international peasant confederation. The term is defined as ‘the right of nations and peoples to control their own food systems, including their own markets, production modes, food cultures, and environments’ (La Via Campesina, 2007). The term is often laden with a rejection of

neoliberal trade principles, but food sovereignty and free market trade do not have to be mutually exclusive (Kerssen, 2015). Food security is a term that was first defined at the World Food Summit in 1996 and has been used actively by the World Bank and World Trade Organization in promoting projects of neoliberal trade (Weiler et al., 2014). The term stands for a situation where “at the individual, household, national regional and global levels, (...) when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 1996). A neoliberal trade system involving free markets and an economy based on food sovereignty can both be seen as a means to achieve international food security. However, the concepts of food sovereignty and food security contain a key difference when it comes to the access of food. Under food security, food is seen as a tradable commodity that can be produced anywhere and by any means, and acquired through trade. Food sovereignty, however, propagates locally produced food that should be healthy and culturally appropriate (Quaye et al., 2009). Food sovereignty discourses emerged as an alternative paradigm to the neoliberal practices and globalization of food and agriculture under food security (Jarosz, 2014).

During the last decades Bolivia has gained large amounts of profits with quinoa production. This was the result of market decisions and involvement of state and stakeholder organizations. The next paragraphs will present Bolivia’s comparative advantage in the global quinoa market. This will be followed by an analysis of the current political policy and a stakeholder analysis to explain how Bolivia ended up as largest quinoa producer in the world. These analyses will form the starting point from where four future scenarios will be presented.

2.2 Politics and the market

Bolivia is the largest exporter of quinoa in the world. Bolivia supplies approximately 42% of all the quinoa that can be found in the international market. The quinoa Bolivia is producing is considered to be of the highest quality. From the ’90 on until now the price of quinoa is on the rise with 2007 as the starting point to prices three times as high in 2010 (Antonio, 2011). The production of quinoa in Bolivia can help providing inflow of money in Bolivia, which can reduce poverty and increase food security as other products can be imported for a more diverse and sufficient diet (FAO, 2013).

As Bolivia is producing worlds largest share of quinoa it seems that the country has a comparative advantage in producing this commodity. If Bolivia wants to keep his status and profits as largest exporter of quinoa simply expanding arable area is not the solution. Now demand is growing faster than supply, prices of quinoa are on a rise. This rise in price is making it more attractive in other nations such as Canada, United States and India to produce quinoa and sell it on the international market. This will add up to the pressure of producing more for Bolivia, which could lower the local consumption of the grain due to high prices, this leads to a decline in Bolivia’s food security (Antonio, 2011) and its comparative advantage position. If Bolivia wants to keep competing in a growing international market quinoa production must keep on increasing as demand is rising.

The pressure to produce more quinoa will rise, as the Bolivians will have to keep on competing on the international market. This could eventually end up in a quinoa crisis as happened with coffee in 2003 causing small-scale producers to immigrate to urban slums (Bacon, 2005). The growth of specialization in quinoa production is leading to more welfare for a large part of the agrarian community. Although a small part, namely the poorest, do not gain as much welfare causing more inequities within local communities, as they cannot meet Fair-trade standards.

The following paragraph will provide an analysis of the political view on the market. This will provide more background to Bolivia’s current market position.

2.2.2 Political View on Trade

President Morales from the “Movimiento al Socialismo” (MAS) party was elected in 2006. He and his party have been campaigning for a shift towards food sovereignty based on self-sufficiency. The MAS took a postcolonial view of development for the country of Bolivia, itself a former Spanish colony (Costoya, 2011). It proposes to pay more attention to the needs of the indigenous peoples and the peasantry, recognizing these groups as historically and culturally valuable and an underdeveloped source of employment and income (Cunha Filho & Goncalves, 2010).

Monasterios (2007) defines the strategy as: “a societal decolonization that questions fundamental assumptions of modernity and Western democracy in the pursuit of a completely new relationship between the individual, society, and government.” In light of this strategy, the MAS is faced with the challenge of changing Bolivia from a nation that favors northern elites in an extractive economic system to a country with sustainable and equitable development (Kohl, 2010). Morales’ critical attention towards outside influence, whether this is caused by large corporations and importers on the world market, large foreign land owners in Bolivia, American drug officials in the country, the IMF, market-oriented trade agreements or privately owned domestic resources, can be seen as an attempt to resist forces caused by globalization, and consequently as an alter-globalization movement (Costoya, 2011; Hammarling, 2015). Rising price levels as a result of growing international demand, partly caused by campaigns such as the UN and the government’s International Year of Quinoa, restrict local access to the crop (Rojas-Ruiz, 2012) and consequently hinder the state’s food sovereignty. The loss of power experienced by local societies and the state and the dependence on global forces of power are judged as effects of the globalization project (Hammarling, 2015). The MAS’ policies to strengthen and empower the domestic society are measures to reduce these influences.

The Bolivian government is characterized by such ambiguous policies when it comes to trade (Costoya, 2011; Bottazzi, 2012; Cunha Filho & Goncalves, 2010). Despite the indigenous electoral basis that brought Morales and the MAS to power and a “turn to the left” to a neo-developmentalist model, the Bolivian government leaves enough room for export-oriented policies. The CAN agreement with Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru is aimed at maintaining and growing exports, as well as Bolivia’s involvement in the Mercosur agreement to strengthen economic ties with large South American importers such as Argentina and Brazil. Morales explicitly announced that he planned for Bolivia to break free from free market domination by forging trade agreements with economic allies (Kennemore, 2011).

The MAS’ first integral approach to national development, the Plan Nacional de Desarollo (PND), was published in June 2006. Among others, it contained the following two strategies: (A) An economic plan dubbed “Productive Bolivia” that aims to diversify national production and (B) an international relations strategy dubbed “Sovereign Bolivia” that aims to forge productive international trade agreements while maintaining equal balance of power and sovereignty (Costoya, 2011). Part A of this strategy can be seen as a contribution towards more support for the indigenous communities, the MAS’ electoral basis. The official recognition of the pluri national state through the Constitution underwrites Morales’ support for these peasant groups (Radhuber, 2012). Also part B involves a greater participation of the indigenous communities. Parts B and C can be seen as elements of the MAS’ strategy to improve national food sovereignty. Diversification of agricultural production provides a decreasing dependence on imports, and an a measure to increase self-sufficiency.

This raises the question how the different stakeholders operate within this political framework. How do producer cooperatives operate, what is the impact on indigenous communities and how involved is the State? These questions will be addressed in the following paragraphs.

2.3 Stakeholder involvement

To survive in the competing global market small-scale quinoa producers must organize. The two biggest organizations in quinoa production are the National Association of Quinoa Producers (ANAPQUI) and the Central of Agricultural Co-operatives Operation Earth (CECAOT). These two groups represent a total of three thousand quinoa producers (Ton & Bijman, 2006). These organizations are selling the quinoa collectively so better deals can be made to improve the standard of living for quinoa producers such as fair trade arrangements (Fair Trade USA, 2015). A study on coffee farmers in Nicaragua showed that farmers that were connected to cooperatives were four times less likely of losing their land due to a fall in coffee prices. The same study also shows that participating in alternative coffee trade networks, such as fair trade arrangements, reduces the vulnerability to low coffee prices (Bacon, 2005). Therefore it is highly recommendable that all local small-scale producers keep organized in cooperatives. These cooperatives have more bargaining power and can contribute to more sustainable development, which includes food security and poverty

eradication. With special funds infrastructural projects can be realized to get more quinoa producers on the international market.

According to Antonio (2011) several stakeholders namely the producers, processors and exporters of quinoa in Bolivia have been in a process of organization. The organization of the stakeholders has led to several committees that work as institutional actors. They have been very active in the formulation of Bolivia’s National Policy of Quinoa. This policy has been made in order to create a more sustainable system for production (Antonio, 2011). The cooperation between stakeholders in the region of Altiplano fits in the idea of regional specialization where local cooperation leads to synergy thereby improving the collective performance.

Quinoa was once seen as peasant’s food integrated in indigenous Andean culture and life.

Due to external market pressure the commodity commercialized and had several influences on the traditional familial economy.

2.3.2 Indigenous communities

While on a regional scale clustering powers are strengthening Bolivia’s position on the global market, local traditions are changing. According to Kiebooms (2014) the explosive increase in demand for quinoa led to disorganization of the communities. The communal interests that once were the top priority shifted towards more individualism making private interest the most important interest (Ibid., 2014). After the urbanization that occurred in the 20th _{century where agricultural profits were too low} for small-scale farmers, people saw prices of quinoa rising again and returned to the arable lands for quinoa production (Laguna, 2011). This immigration of new inhabitants was destructive to the communal system that worked before. Organizations such as ANAPQUI are taking over the position of communal authorities, what used to be a system with communal interest as top priority changed into a more profit driven production system (Kiebooms, 2014).

Communities are now more driven by profit and shifting from a communal production system

to a more individualistic one. On a local scale this means that the poorest members that live in communities are not able to join production organizations because they do not have enough money to farm by the high standards that are demanded. This is causing more inequality within the community. 2.3.3 State Involvement

In the quinoa sector, the state has been particularly absent (Filipovska et al., 2015). According to Kerssen (2015), state intervention in the Altiplano region in Bolivia, where most of the domestic quinoa is grown, has been negligible under current governmental rule. One of the reasons for the state’s ambiguity in trade policy is the inability to exercise power over the production organizations. In her paper, Kerssen quotes ANAPQUI marketing director Juan Carlos: ‘A lot of people think that the government created the quinoa boom, but that’s not the case; it’s the producers, along with our clients and the consumers, who [made it happen]’. Effectively, peasant, grassroots organizations regulate the production of quinoa in Bolivia. Kerssen finds the underlying cause for the boom of Bolivian quinoa production in the re-peasantization of the country, which occurred during the 1990s. Massive worldwide urbanization, from 1945 to 1990 is described as global depeasantization (Araghi, 1995). During this period, many people who were originally peasants headed towards the cities in search for economic success. Kerssen stresses the importance of a country’s transformation back towards a greater proportion of peasants and the reaffirming of peasant cultures and communities for the building of food sovereignty, especially since 54% of the global population now lives in cities (Kerssen, 2015).

2.4 The agriculture of quinoa production

The following chapters will elaborate the core elements of growing quinoa in Bolivia and the consequences of the planned intensification. It will start with the basis of growing quinoa and how this can lead to desertification. Next the best soil characteristics for quinoa will be discussed and what can be done to optimize the yields and a deeper look to the water availability problems faced when growing quinoa in Bolivia. This part will tend to give a basis for the simulations in Aquacrop but also a theoretical framework for the claims made when discussing the different scenarios.

2.4.1 Quinoa the high-altitude crop

Quinoa is a very adaptable crop; it can grow in a desert like climate with nightly temperatures of minus five degrees Celsius and withstand daily temperatures up to forty degrees Celsius. The yield is optimal with an even rain distribution but can also withstand dry periods for more than three weeks. Combining these features of quinoa makes it a perfect crop to grow at high altitudes (Jacobsen, 2003). In the northern Altiplano the agricultural activities are diverse and consist out of potatoes, barley, oat, kidney beans and some quinoa in combination with a wide variety of livestock. In the south, where the Altiplano has more surfaces and the climate is harsher, there are mainly quinoa plantations and no livestock (Winkel et al., 2012). Before the quinoa boom these Altiplano were characterized by wide steppes, with typical steppe vegetation, which were being grazed by herds of llamas. This is the core of the problem, where the land degradation started. The rising demand of quinoa made it profitable for the agricultural industry to turn these steppes into fields where the quinoa could be cultivated. Quinoa has a low yield in comparison to potatoes (table 1), but it is able to grow in a harsher climate and it can grow in a soil with low nutrient content. So quinoa crops largely replaced the natural vegetation, but quinoa is sowed at a depth of ten centimeters and does not root very deeply (Geerts, Raes, Garcia, Del Castillo, & Buytaert, 2006). This results in a great loss of the soil cohesion and is causing desertification in the Bolivian Altiplano. The desertification leads to increased erosion, Aeolian and Colluvial erosion (Lal, 2009). Colluvial erosion occurs because most of the quinoa is sown on slopes, the Aeolian process affect mostly the more shallower parts, unfortunately these eroded parts end up on the slopes stimulating the Colluvial erosion. This causes a vicious circle; soils develop very slow on a slope, hence the low nutrient content of these soils, but now the soils are also being washed away by erosion. This process reduces the ecological resilience of the Altiplano and enhances the desertification. Desertification can cause several threats for the Bolivian population; it can lead to flooding, landslides and influences the water quality negatively (Jacobsen, 2011). It also affects the soil fertility; this will be elaborated in the next chapter.

GROWING PRODUCTIVITY

kg / ha

Corn 900- 2400

Potatoes 10 000- 30 000

Quinoa 900- 2900

Table 1: Productivity of Corn, Potatoes and Quinoa in Kg/ha (Jacobsen, 2003). 2.4.2 Growing quinoa

Quinoa growth is optimal in a soil with a high base saturation and prefers a Ph neutral or slightly alkaline soil with Ph values of 6 to 8,5, but can also withstand acid soils with a Ph down till 4. They thrive in soils with a high drainage and a moderate salinity (Geerts et al., 2006). In the area in Bolivia, the salinity can be very high, especially around the salt lakes, nevertheless this has only has a small effect on the yield of quinoa due to the increased stress factor of the salty groundwater on the root system (Ibid.). The root is very fibrous and holds up well to the plant, only when there is excess moisture a rollover can occur as a result of high winds. When the root is fully developed it can reach up to 1.50 m depth according to the soil type it has rooted (Ibid.). Unfortunately when growing commercial quinoa the plants are harvested when they reach a depth of about 70 centimeters or even less because most Bolivian quinoa fields are planted on haplic leptosols or leptic regosols (Jacobsen, 2011). Quinoa plants do not require tillage after sowing. Sometimes the Bolivian farmers use a practice called "fuss" which involves creating wide channels four to five meters from each other, when the plants are about 30 centimeters high, for better drainage. These gullies are not favorable for the fertility of the soil because in this way the dissolved nutrients in the water do not end up in the soil but are flushed away. This leads to higher profits but depletes the soils and can lead to eutrophication where the water flow precipitates (Geerts et al., 2006). This can be seen as a metaphor for the tragedy

of the commons (Hardin, 1968) because the farmers choose their individual best interest over the population’s best interest by obstructing fertile soil formation.

Quinoa is suited to grow in a soil with a low nutrient content, although it does assimilate quite an amount of Nitrogen from the soil. This can lead to nitrogen deficiency in the soil unless there is usage of fertilizers, chemical fertilization since the traditional Llama manure is no longer available. The last major constraint in Quinoa production in the Bolivian Altiplano is water availability; this problem will be discussed in the next paragraph.

2.4.4 Water availability

Water shortage in the Bolivian highlands is a major constraint for the growth of the quinoa plants. Quinoa is relatively resistant to harsh drought conditions, but is still influenced negatively when the water availability is at its most adverse. In the Bolivian Altiplano is water significantly scarce, due to the combination of low rainfall, high evapotranspiration rate and soils with a low water retention capacity (Banks et al., 2005). Following a less drought resistant environment, that causes considerable yield reductions during extreme droughts.

While quinoa is highly adapted to harsh environmental factors, it still experiences growth disturbance in certain stages of cultivation. During stages of seedling emergence quinoa shows to be more sensitive to both salt and water shortage (Panuccio et al., 2013). Monitoring these water influences contribute to a higher yield.

A technique suitable for these applications is Deficit Irrigation, which is a irrigation technique that integrates the crop water demands whilst including water availability. This means that only in a certain stage of growth irrigated water will be applied, while the rest of the time the crop will be rainwater fed. Geerts et al. (2008) conducted a research whereby irrigation was limited to the plant establishment, flowering, and early grain-filling stage during the growing season. This to minimize the amount of water used for the cultivation of quinoa. The results of this study show that addition of water has a significant influence on the expected grain yield. Both full irrigation and Deficit irrigation show a major increase in the grain yield compared to solely the rain fed agriculture. Whereas deficit irrigation uses approximately three times less water compared to full irrigation (Table 2).

Table 2: Deficit irrigation (Geerts et al., 2008)

The following chapter will contain the methodology of this research. The theoretical framework provided several relevant insights that are necessary to draw the most profitable and sustainable scenario for quinoa production in Bolivia. The framework that has been presented in the paragraphs Politics and Market will be used as a basis from where the scenarios will divide into the two different directions Food Security and Food Sovereignty. The agricultural framework will be used in the calculations of the scenarios that will be presented in the results. The chapter methodology will provide the structure that will connect the two differing frameworks by combining two specific methods, namely Scenario planning and Aquacrop.

3. Methodology

3.1 Scenario planning

In interdisciplinary research common ground must be found within the contradicting theories and concepts of the used disciplines. During World War II several military commanders had to deal with complex problems that could have a strategic impact on the future course of the war. But as the future and its underlying dynamics aren’t always predictable they developed a method called scenario planning in order to answer the “what-if” question to the possible futures (Robertson, 2014; 291). By exploring these possible futures a vision can be developed for the several stakeholders within the quinoa market to design a sufficient governance structure. According to Doppelt (2003a, 78) the structure wherein governance is organized is one of the key factors for sustainable development. The right approach to governance can lead to innovation and flexible adaptation that can be necessary for organizations to survive in the long run (Ibid.). In the global quinoa market many stakeholders have to deal with complex issues that differ from societal to environmental issues. An example of the scenario planning method can be found in the foresight activities of Royal Dutch Shell (Van der Heijden, 1996). A company such as Shell has to cope with environmental and societal issues in short and long term. The oil company used this approach first during the 1973 oil crisis. The different future scenarios were created to explore possible future outcomes so that right decisions could be made.

In academic literature scenario axes are often used as tool to construct future scenarios (van ‘t Klooster & van Asselt, 2006). “This approach is aimed towards identifying the two most important driving forces, i.e. those developments that are both very uncertain (and therefore can develop into different directions) and could have a decisive impact for the region, the subject, the company, etc. In other words, driving forces, which serve as scenario axes, are those developments that score on both indicators ‘uncertainty’ and ‘impact’.” (Ibid. p. 17). In figure 1 the two driving forces are presented on the scenario axes thus creating four possible scenarios, therefore the quadrants contain possible perspectives of the future.

Figure 1: The Scenario axes. (van ‘t Klooster & van Asselt, 2006)

This method can be applied to the case of quinoa production in the Altiplano region of Bolivia. As mentioned in the introduction the aim of this research is to find the best possible scenario for quinoa production regarding the social and environmental consequences. Within this case several driving forces can be identified such as effects from climate change, international market volatility, political regime shifts and shifting trade policies. However, according to the theory of scenario planning only two of these driving forces must be chosen in order to let the axes work properly. The two driving forces that were identified for this research are the orientation of trade policies and the level of market volatility (Figure 2). The current government under Morales can be seen as export restrictive and the peasant organizations aim to seize the economic opportunity using export supportive policies. These forces were chosen because they do not influence each other directly and cannot be derived from facts for the near and far future.

3.1.1 Market volatility as driving force

The future of quinoa production is dependent of several trends that may influence the outcomes severely. One of these trends we identified as most unpredictable and severe is the development of market volatility. High market volatility and low market volatility can both create situations where effective policy is needed. Market volatility refers to swinging market prices of a commodity. In times of high volatility the prices of a specific commodity will swing quickly from high prices to low prices and visa versa. For agricultural commodities these high levels of volatility can be explained in several ways. Gilbert and Morgan (2010) discuss several reasons in which market volatility changes food prices. Food price volatility may occur in times of “rapid economic growth, decades of underinvestment in agriculture, low inventory levels, poor harvests, depreciation of the US dollar, diversion of food crops into the production of biofuels and speculative influences.” (Ibid. p. 3023).

As mentioned in the theoretical framework Bolivia is now world's largest quinoa producer and exporter. As demand is growing quinoa prices have been rising, as production is not growing fast enough. Higher quinoa prices can make it more attractive for other countries to grow the commodity that could have a large impact on the Bolivian market. For instance, if global production grows prices can swing during shocks of production in other countries this makes the Bolivian market vulnerable. On the contrary, low market volatility by means of stable supply and demand of quinoa and create trust in the market. Market trust and stability can create certainty for quinoa producers in which they can build the necessary infrastructure to optimize quinoa production.

The driving force of market volatility is chosen because its impact can be very large, thus making it a useful driving force to generate extreme scenarios. In periods of low market volatility, agricultural shocks may still occur such as climatic events that destroy yields. Using low and high market volatility as two extremes can be useful to generate the desired future “what-if?” scenarios. 3.1.2 Trade policy as driving force

The state and the peasant organizations differ in the way they view food sovereignty (Filipovska et al., 2015). The peasants, grassroots organizations that have been discussed, have navigated neoliberalism and market forces to their benefit by gaining access to the global market and forging global relationships. Therefore, business as usual has originated not as a result of government intervention, but of self-regulation on the production side. The peasant organizations benefit from and implement a system of food security through market trade, in accordance with the initial definition used by the World Bank and the WTO, mainly because of the inflow of wealth. This corresponds to La Campesina’s meaning of food sovereignty, seeing as the people have “control over their own markets, production modes, food cultures, and environments”. The state, however, differs from this view in the sense that it also has the well being of the peasant communities at heart, but through many ways rejects international economic dependence. The MAS identifies both soil degradation by intensified quinoa production and the decreasing availability of quinoa for the domestic market due to rising prices as a result of increased market involvement. To talk in extremes, the MAS would rather produce mainly for the domestic market, thereby underwriting Morales’ postcolonial and anti neoliberal political stance and putting emphasis on self-sufficiency. According to Morales, after all, market involvement leads to loss of “control over their own markets, production modes, food cultures, and environments”. Thus, the state claims to know what is best for the peasant organizations, thereby ignoring their preference for market involvement.

The different views on food sovereignty can also be placed within the existing discourse on food sovereignty and food security. The most important difference between the two concepts is that food security promotes neoliberal principles of trade and globalization of food and agriculture, while food sovereignty offers an alternative paradigm of healthy, culturally appropriate and locally produced food. These concepts are similar to the view on trade by the peasant organizations and the state respectively. The left side of the spectrum will present scenarios where the peasant organizations’ propagation of food security and sovereign control through neoliberal practices is still dominant. The driving forces for these scenarios are the export supportive policies desired by the peasant organizations and associated with food security. On the right side of the spectrum, the

scenarios involve situations where the government’s view on food sovereignty through self-sufficiency takes over the quinoa sector. The driving forces for these scenarios are the export restrictive policies inhibited in the concept of food sovereignty and desired by Morales and the MAS. 3.1.3 The four scenario quadrants

In light of the scenario method, which has been presented, four different scenarios for the Bolivian quinoa production chain will be discussed. One of the driving forces that may influence the scenarios is whether the MAS’ strategies will actively be incorporated in the sector’s policy. This would involve a shift from the current peasant-organized system to a state-organized system, in absence of policy ambiguity and with implementation of Morales’ voiced anti-neoliberal policies. The other axis of the scenario-diagram contains market volatility (Figure 2). Consequently, for both production systems, situations of high and low market volatility will be discussed. The left sides of the figure are scenarios that are oriented on Food security whilst the right sides of the figure are more Food sovereignty oriented scenarios.

Figure 2: The Scenario Axes of Market Volatility and the implementation of export (non)restrictive policy

3.2 Aquacrop

With the use of Aquacrop, an assessment can be made to predict crop yields under altered water conditions. This program simulates responses of crops to an increase or decrease in the constancy and amount of water availability. Outcomes of these simulations could predict what effects new irrigation techniques could have on the yield, and therefore the ability to cope with the raising Quinoa demand. Preliminary research has been done with

the use of Aquacrop to calculate up scaling possibilities by studying irrigation demands of Quinoa crops (Geerts et al. 2009). However the actual integration in a form of a scenario method has not been studied. The following diagram shows a simplification of how the Aquacrop model interactions take place (figure 3).

figure 3. Aquacrop model interactions1

1Continuous lines are direct links between variables. Dotted lines are feedbacks. Legend:

Ky: crop coefficient is a characteristic variable that is used to predict the evapotranspiration

WP: water productivity is the amount of biomass created divided by the amount of water used, and is therefore a good indicator for the efficiency characteristics of a crop.

Es: evaporation is the amount of water that evaporates from the surface, and is not taken up by the plant.

3.2.1 Implementing scenarios in Aquacrop

The scenario method provides us four different economic and political scenarios. These scenarios are then being calculated with Aquacrop to combine the results and data from the several perspectives that were being used in this research. Based on these scenarios three simulations will be conducted. Scenario A is based on a soil moisture content, which is not altered. This follows from the crisis in the global quinoa demand. Quinoa production did not expand in such a way that the effects of overexploitation are minimized, and the soil moisture content is at a constant level due to the minimal amount of depletion. In scenario B the groundwater is depleted as a result of years of intensive quinoa agriculture. The inflow of water is significant smaller than the amount of water used for the intensified farming industry. Following a growing shortage in the amount of natural available water. In the third scenario, scenario C, the focus lies on a sovereign agricultural management of the arable lands. Morales’ regime implies export restrictive policies and a sustainable management of the quinoa agriculture, with the help of governmental investments. The focus will be on stimulating the yield of the arable land without degrading the natural soil moisture available. Investments will allow implementing an irrigation system that could sustainably improve the yield without having to expand significantly. Therefore an irrigation scheme is added to the simulation. These investments are costly, and therefore infeasible for private companies pursuing maximal profit. Scenario D implies a clash in the interests between multinationals and the Bolivian quinoa farming industry, a strong expansion and intensification will be averted. Following a significant less disturbed ground water table.

3.2.2 Simulating in Aquacrop

Improving the yield of quinoa by focusing on water can be assessed with the use of Aquacrop. The details of our simulations are as following. The following initial conditions were used for the simulation in Aquacrop, the climate file of Sucre, from the first of January 1998 until the thirty-first of December of 1998. This was a year with an average rainfall distribution and likewise evapotranspiration. For the soil a Chernozem is used this is manually created with a depth of the first horizon of an average of 50 centimeters and subsoil with a depth of a meter and a half, with a low permeability. The usage of fertilizers is not implemented in the Aquacrop simulation, because this was not possible. Which means that this simulation mainly focuses on the improvements that can be made regarding water management. In the following part the results of the simulations will be discussed. The first simulation will be done with the current soil characteristics and one on a depleted soil with different groundwater features. Based on the yield differences an advice can be given for both scenarios. And finally a simulation is done with implementation of an irrigation schedule in order to raise the yields and to use a smaller amount of land for cultivation of Quinoa. This way a crop rotation scheme can be used which is better for the soil fertility. The irrigation simulation is chosen to give alternate options of improving the yield while not cultivating more land for production or by implementing crop rotation schemes. The cost of implementing irrigation on such a large scale would be very high thus not very likable to happen, but it can be subsidized by the government to decrease the cultivation rate.

4. Results

4.1 Scenario A: Quinoa Crisis Scenario

This scenario is created in the quadrant of high market volatility and the presence of export supportive policies. This means it is a business as usual scenario but market prices of the quinoa commodity are fluctuating. Land managers are under great pressure to produce more while economic returns are falling which could have been caused by lower productivity or higher competitiveness from the international market (Allison & Hobbs, 2004). According to Schwert (1989) high trading activity and high volatility often occur together. As the quinoa business is going pretty well for a large share of the industry, a part of the country is getting more dependent of the commodity. Quinoa trading on the international market is expanding causing the market to fluctuate more often.

Communities are now more driven by profit and shifting from a communal production system to a more individualistic one. On a local scale this means that the poorest members that live in

communities are not able to join production organizations because they do not have enough money to farm by the high standards that are demanded. This is causing more inequality within the community. Besides this there is a risk of a crisis as occurred in the commodity coffee, which will cause more inequality.

4.2 Scenario B: Business As Usual Scenario

In essence, scenario B involves the same organization of the quinoa production sector as explained in scenario A, but without market volatility. Under current situations, the peasant organizations deserve praise for the autonomous and sovereign way the production sector is organized (Kerssen, 2015). In this case, food sovereignty involves control over resources and their future in the hands of the peasant organizations (Filipovska et al., 2015). The benefits from this communal organization have been discussed under the theoretical framework. In the condition of guaranteed international demand, intensification of agriculture can continue and wealth will continue to flow into the Altiplano. However, under continuation of the current production trends, pressure on the environment will continue to develop (Jacobsen, 2011). Moreover, the decreasing availability for the domestic market urges the Bolivian government to explore alternatives (Hammarling, 2015). Quinoa is already carefully being subsidized for domestic consumption, and the government has proposed to involve quinoa in meal plans for pregnant women and children. The Aquacrop simulation in the appendix presents a detailed analysis of the consequences of a business as usual scenario, when international demand will maintain an upwards development.

4.3 Scenario C: Export Restrictive scenario

One of the important pillars of food sovereignty is local self-sufficiency acquired through protectionist measures (Kerr, 2011). Regarding the shift away from neoliberalism under a postcolonial development strategy that the country of Bolivia has undertaken since the MAS’ rise to power in 2006, a complete focus on the domestic market and a retreat from global trade would be the extreme outcome. One does not have food sovereignty when someone else has control over one’s access to food (Kerr, 2011), and according to the Bolivian government’s train of thought, free market involvement diminishes autonomous domestic control over and access to quinoa, which is shown for instance in the surge in price of domestic quinoa over the past years (Rojas-Ruiz, 2012).

Protectionist measures in academic literature predominantly discuss the heavy taxation or refusal of commodities from outside markets (Kerr, 2011). In the case of Bolivian quinoa, however, these measures would be unsuitable. In order to prevent the domestic commodity prices from rising, the Bolivian government could sever ties with international trade relations. International demand for quinoa, after all, has been the cause for the soaring price of Bolivian quinoa and the unavailability of quinoa on domestic markets.

The result that export bans and restrictions will have on domestic supply depends on the responsiveness of supply to price (Abbott, 2011). Restrictions on exports will lead to increased domestic availability and decreasing prices. The ability of producers to cope with price decreases will determine domestic availability in equilibrium. Export taxes work similarly, with tax revenues often not weighing up to the loss in production. Between 2008 and 2011, Bolivia imposed export restrictions on maize and poultry to respond to decreasing domestic food availability (Maletta, 2013). The uncontrollable rise in domestic prices, despite a price ceiling, and the increased imports are a case in point that export restrictions may not lead to food sovereignty.

4.4 Scenario D: Clashing Interests Scenario

If low market volatility were a given, the Bolivian quinoa production system would be exempt from the consequences of market price and demand fluctuations described under scenario B. However, export bans or a government usually carries out restrictions when food prices have skyrocketed and government’s aim for protection of domestic markets (FAO, 2011). In this sense, the Bolivian government would restrict access to the international markets for the peasant organizations, despite obvious economic opportunities. The government would restrict the inhabitants of the Altiplano from the ability to climb out of poverty (Emran & Hou, 2011). Whether this outcome is realistic remains to be seen, seeing as Morales and the indigenous communities show reciprocal support and the

implementation of indigenous rights in the constitution will lead to further preservation of autonomous control. The benefits from the quinoa organization in its current form have been discussed extensively in the literature analysis (Kerssen, 2015; Kiebooms, 2014; Antonia, 2011).

However, in deciding for the peasant organizations what is best for them and the people of Bolivia, the Bolivian government hopes to provide food for its people while safeguarding the environment from excessive cultivation to guarantee arable land for future generations. The consequences of the downscaling of quinoa production have been studied using Aquacrop.

4.5 Aquacrop outcomes

The three simulated scenarios are shown in the appendix. All the conducted simulations are based on the same environmental conditions, only the groundwater conditions and water influx (irrigation) is altered as following. A big difference in the yield can be found by looking at the first two simulations (table 3). In the second simulation the initial groundwater conditions are altered. They are lowered to a saturation of fewer than ten percent. This can be reached after five years of intensive Quinoa cultivation on a parcel (estimated on the average water deficit after each crop cycle). The yield drops from 536 kilograms per hectare till 247 kilograms per hectare, which is a percentage decrease of fifty. This would mean that the cultivation of the second 500,000 hectares would be useless in the long run. Or at least when no irrigation would be used. Next to the huge drop in production rates, the lowering of the groundwater saturation would mean an increase of capillary rise in the Bolivian Altiplano, which can have big effects on the water flow in Bolivia (Fritz et al. 2004).

A solution can be found in irrigation with the following irrigation schedule 340 mm per square meter would be applied in total. Per hectare the water usage would be 3.400000 liters of water per production cycle. With this scheme the irrigation would not be optimal but in this way the evapotranspiration will be limited and the water use efficiency is highest. The costs to implement an irrigation system on such a big scale would be very high, the usage of 3400 billion liters of water per growing cycle would also be expensive.

Table 3. Expected yield

5. Conclusion and Discussion

5.1 Conclusion

Using Aquacrop simulations in combination with the scenario method as computed in this study can be a useful tool to create a foundation for quinoa production management. The significant effect of fluctuation in water availability and soil moisture depletion is underlined in the conducted simulations.

Both Scenario A and D will result in a relatively sustainable moderate yield due to the absence of over intensification. It shows a simulation profile, which will be comparable with the productivity of quinoa agriculture before the boom in demand has taken place. Which means that it will be equivalent to the production of quinoa in a traditional way. It is important to take into account the dangers that high market volatility presents for the indigenous communities. It is therefore crucial

in a scenario of free market involvement that the farmers keep organized in cooperatives; since they have more bargaining power and can contribute to more sustainable development, which includes food security and poverty eradication.

Scenario B shows a business as usual scenario. The growth in global demand for quinoa leads to overexploitation of the soil water content, and will induce erosion and soil degradation. As a result of the depletion of soil moisture content quinoa productivity will drop to an undesirable and unsustainable yield. This is also a driving factor for desertification and soil erosion; in this scenario there will be less water available for plant uptake. So it will be harder to vegetation to grow, in addition the cohesion of the soil will lower because this is influenced by the saturation of the soil. So this will enhance erosion and desertification and start a vicious circle of land degradation. Moreover, overexploitation will lead to an undesirable loss of cultural values, access of smallholder farms, and high domestic prices. All these consequences are reasons for the government not to grant the cooperatives full autonomy over quinoa production.

To prevent a significant drop in productivity due to a shortage in water availability, irrigation can offer positive prospects; this is demonstrated in scenario C. The focus on food sovereignty and sustainable quinoa production management will benefit from irrigation, following a more stable and secure quinoa production. The possible costs of irrigation could be a negative stimulating factor. However, the amount of water used by traditional irrigation can be diminished with the use of a more efficient Deficit Irrigation. Focusing on water demands of quinoa crops in certain growth stages can save around two-third of the water in comparison to full irrigation (Geerts et al., 2008). With this export restrictive and high investment scenario a yield increase is generated, which allows a decrease in hectares that need to be cultivated. Following possibilities for farmers to practice a system of crop rotation to mitigate soil depletion and desertification. Moreover lamas can be reintroduced on a large scale in the Bolivian Altiplano to stimulate these objectives.

As history shows us, export bans or restrictions in scenario C will ultimately lead to even higher domestic prices, lower food sovereignty and an unfavorable attitude from the global community. Therefore, a balance between the presented scenarios is required.

Conclusively, a combination of Aquacrop simulations and quinoa specific Deficit Irrigation models will result in efficient and sustainable quinoa agriculture. The organization of farmers in fair-trade cooperatives has proven to be successful to attain poverty eradication and sustainable development. However, under current development, the rising domestic prices and excessive land use is unsustainable. The sector needs to aim for a balance between peasant cooperatives involved in fair-trade, organic channels and government regulations, such as subsidies and meal plans, to guarantee domestic availability, indigenous values and environmental sustainability while simultaneously exploiting economic opportunities. This involves a balance between food sovereignty from the government’s perspective and from the producer's perspective. Food sovereignty will consequently not be seen as an end goal, but as a means to achieve food security.

5.2 Discussion

Although Aquacrop simulations can help with predicting the effects of different scenarios, it still is a simplification of the actual situation. Several influences are used to describe the growth of quinoa crops regarding water. However in reality soil mineral compositions and the addition of fertilizer could have an impact of similar intensity. Other crop simulation models such as NDICEA can be used to combine other variables e.g. fertilizers and mineral compositions within the simulations. Unfortunately the software for quinoa predictions is not available yet. This can be researched in the future, to find new innovations to increase the production rate of quinoa in Bolivia while limiting the amount of hectares cultivated. The results of the Aquacrop simulations can therefore only be implemented in advices regarding the management of water.

The simulation outcomes can give an estimation providing foundation for policy advises, but uncertainties should be taken under account. Furthermore, the use of (deficit) irrigation is an important factor in the most sustainable scenario, but could also form a problem if water is not available in the area. This will result in an increase in the costs of irrigation measures. Additionally can be questioned whether the cultural values will remain intact when implementing advanced agricultural techniques.

The political strategies explored using the scenario method are extreme ends on a scale and by no means does this research suggest that these strategies are actually promoted by governments. The scenarios present an overview of the consequences of certain measures, in order to select the favorable traits from certain strategies and to identify a suitable proposal for the quinoa sector of Bolivia.

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Appendix

Due to the decrease in quinoa demand, quinoa farming decreased in intensity. Following a positive soil moisture content. Canopy cover (CC) is relatively high during flowering. Yield and biomass is significantly higher than in scenario B.

Scenario B; Business as usual. A s a result of years of intensification of quinoa farming, soil

Scenario 3; protectionism and yield maximization. for this scenario irrigation is added to stimulate

the growth and yield of the quinoa crops. In the first growth phase irrigation application is at lower depth, whereupon the irrigation is applied deeper. productivity (yield, biomass) is significantly higher than simulated in the first two scenarios, as is shown in the second figure.