The Sustainability of the Good Friday Agreement

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The Sustainability of the Good

Friday Agreement

Analysing the peace process in Northern Ireland 1998-2018

Thesis

submitted in partial fulfillment of the

requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE

in

CRISIS AND SECURITY MANAGEMENT

Author: Heidi Douglas-Osborn

Student ID: s2196670

Supervisor: Dr Eamon Aloyo

2

nd

_{reader: Dr Joery Matthys}

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1

Abstract

Peace processes are an important part of helping societies move from conflict and war towards a state of lasting peace. This thesis is an analysis of how two aspects of the Good Friday Agreement, since its implementation in 1998, have affected the sustainability of the Agreement and helped Northern Ireland move from a conflict-torn society to a state of negative peace. As there is still violence in Northern Ireland, the case will be discussed in respect to John Galtung’s negative peace, rather than positive peace, looking for a decline in violence rather than the complete removal. The theoretical framework highlighted that peace processes are made of many different aspects from statebuilding to security sector reform. This led to the foundation for this thesis’ research being the two aspects of devolution and police reform. This is a qualitative study of the events and actions from 1998-2018 using monitoring reports and newspaper reports to discuss the decline in violence and the implementation of devolution and police reformation. This thesis will analyse whether these aspects are part of the reason the Good Friday Agreement has now lasted over 20 years.

1_{John Hedges, Ian Paisley’s TV thank you Martin McGuiness for ‘remarkable journey’ welcomed by}

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ABBREVIATIONS

the Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA). Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)

Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA)

International Commission for Decommissioning (ICD) Irish National Liberation Army (INLA)

Irish Republican Army (IRA),

Irish Republican Socialist Party (IRSP) Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF)

Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association (NICRA) Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission (NIHRC) Northern Ireland Policing Board (NIPB)

Northern Ireland Unionist Party (NIUP)

Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minster (OFMDFM) Official Irish Republican Army (OIRA)

Orange Volunteers (OV)

the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA), Progressive Unionist Party (PUP)

Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) the Real Irish Republican Army (RIRA) Red Hand Defenders (RHD)

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Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) United Unionist Coalition (UUC)

Ulster Constitution Defence Committee (UCDC) Ulster Defence Association (UDA)

the Ulster Protestant Volunteers (UPV) The Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC)

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FIGURE TABLE

FIGURE 1:DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES ANALYSED WITHIN THIS RESEARCH ... 28

FIGURE 2:DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES OF HYPOTHESIS 1 ... 30

FIGURE 7.DEVOLUTION IN NORTHERN IRELAND FROM THE GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT ... 49

FIGURE 8.TIMELINE OF NEWSPAPER EVENTS 1998-2018 ... 56

FIGURE 9.SIMPLE LINE GRAPH OF APPENDIX A ... 57

FIGURE 10.SIMPLE BAR GRAPH OF THE REPORTED DEATHS ASSOCIATED WITH VIOLENCE BY THE IRISH TIMES ... 58

FIGURE 11.POLICE REFORM IN NORTHERN IRELAND ... 63

FIGURE 12.WHO COMPLAINS ABOUT THE POLICE? ... 67

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INTRODUCTION

It can be discerned that history has shown peace does not occur immediately after the ending of a conflict or the creation of accords and agreements; instead it takes time, a peace process. 2

Violence is often a part of these conflict societies, which can make peace fragile and needing the creation of sustainable long-term practices in creating positive peace. 3 This can be through peace processes, which are important tools for dealing with the range of actors and elements that can cause conflict and violence.4 Peace processes are defined ‘as the series of actions that lead up to the resolution of conflict and the negotiation and signing a peace accord, as well as the series of actions that implement and consolidate the agreement afterward’, this can be both political and social.5 Establishing peace that is sustainable and can lead to long-term success takes a range of measures from agreements to programs such as Disarmament, Demobilisation, and Reintegration. This is often a part of peacebuilidng which is an element of peace processes.6 Peacebuilding being: ‘an action to identify and support structures, which will tend to strengthen and solidify peace in order to avoid a relapse into conflict’.7 This thesis will look at the case study of Northern Ireland, an example of peace processes through the creation of a peace agreement.8 It is an example of compromise on all sides of a conflict with the hopes of creating long-term positive peace, in a country divided by sectarian violence.9 Peacebuilding and statebuilding are a part of peace processes, but to understand the context of the situation in Northern Ireland the Good Friday Agreement, the peace process must be analysed. The Irish government said in 1992 that ‘the poles of the problem are between those who resent the very

2_{Roland Dannreuther, Understanding the Middle East Peace Process: An Historical institutionalist approach}

European Journal of International Relations, (November 3rd_{, 2010). p. 2.}

European Journal of International Relations,

5_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, 2}nd

edition, (12th_{March 2015), p. 648.}

6_{United Nations, Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration,}

<https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/disarmament-demobilization-and-reintegration>, [Accessed 1 June 2019].

7_{United Nations Peacebuilding Fund, Definitions and Policy Development What is Peacebuilding?}

<http://www.unpbf.org/application-guidelines/what-is-peacebuilding/>, [Accessed 3rd_{July 2019].}

8_{Jeson Ingraham, The Irish Peace Process, (2}nd_{June 2019), <https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/events/peace/talks.htm>,}

[Accessed 7 June].

9_{Jeson Ingraham, The Irish Peace Process, (2}nd_{June 2019), <https://cain.ulster.ac.uk/events/peace/talks.htm>,}

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existence of Northern Ireland and those who see its existence, and its British status, as vital for their identity. It could be tempting to say these two things are irreconcilable.’10

“The troubles” or “Long War” as it was dubbed, was the culmination of political, historical, economic, cultural and social tensions, between Northern Ireland, Britain and the Republic of Ireland.11 After many other attempts at peace, such as the 1985 Anglo-Irish Peace Agreement, the 1998 Good Friday Agreement helped the divided country move away from the conflict of the past 100 or so years to a period of negative peace that has now lasted over 20 years.12_The

Good Friday Agreement, also known as the Belfast Agreement, saw a change from ‘violent conflict’ to an evolving interaction of cooperation between the involved countries, and internal political actors in Northern Ireland. 13

This thesis will look in-depth at The Good Friday Agreement which has been unique in its creation, as it brought together the self-determined political actors of Northern Ireland, excluding the Democratic Unionist Party who opposed the implementation, to create an agreement for all.14 This amalgamation of these legitimate political actors was brought about by a range of factors, from international coercion to the involvement of groups such as Sinn Féin that have historically been linked to the Irish Republican Army (IRA), a paramilitary group that was involved in activities that have been described as ‘terrorism’.15 This Agreement resulted in the creation of a devolved government that allowed the people of Northern Ireland to have self-determination through their political representatives.16 Self-determinism being defined as the people being allowed to ‘freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development’.17 It must be highlighted that since 1969, up

10_{Jeson Ingraham, The Irish Peace Process.}

11 _{Keith Gilmore, ‘Reporting the Troubles’, Fortnight, No. 387, (July 2000), p.27., Seamus Dunn, Jacqueline}

Nolcan-Haley, Conflict in Northern Ireland after the Good Friday Agreement, Fordham International Law

Journal, Vol. 22, Issue 4, Article 13, (1998), p.1373.

12_{Michael Cox, Northern Ireland: The War that came in from the Cold, Irish Studies in International Affairs,}

(2018), p.75.

13_{Amanda Hall, Incomplete Peace and Social Stagnation: Shortcomings of the Good Friday Agreement Open}

Library of Humanities, (10th_{August 2018), p.2.}

14_{John Doyle, ‘Reflecting on the Northern Ireland Conflict and Peace Process: 20 years since the Good Friday}

Agreement, Irish Studies in International Affairs, Reflections on the Northern Ireland Conflict and Peace

Process, (Royal Irish Academy, 2018), p.9.

15_{US Department of State, Foreign Terrorist Organisations,}

<https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/123085.htm>, [Accessed 20th_{January 2019]., ThoughtCo., A list of}

Terrorist Groups by type,

<https://www.thoughtco.com/terrorist-groups-a-list-of-terrorist-groups-by-type-3209111>, [Accessed 20th_{January 2019].}

16_{Axel Schmidt, ‘The Impact of Terrorism on Democracy in Northern Ireland’, Perspectives on Terrorism,}

Vol.4, no. 2, (2010) 10-21, p.17.

17_{United Nations Human Rights: Office of the High Commissioner, International Covenant on Civil and}

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until the signing of the Agreement, the violence had led to over 3,400 deaths across the whole of Ireland, this then pushed all the legitimate political parties to see that violence was significantly harming their country and their legitimacy in the eyes of the international community.18 Technological advances meant that Ireland had a global audience for the Agreement, reminiscent of the civil rights protesters chant of the 1960’s ‘the whole world is watching’.19

To understand the basis of this thesis, The Good Friday Agreement should be understood. The Agreement is an accord between the British and separate Irish governments. It was internally signed on the 10th_{of April 1998 in Belfast, with referendums for those in Northern Ireland and}

the Republic on the acceptance of the Agreement on the 22nd of May, and later the general election was held on the 25th of June 1998.20 It established that the Republic of Ireland would be a separate state from Britain, whilst Northern Ireland would have a devolved government and would no longer take laws directly from London. The Agreement was made up of two separate documents; a multi-party agreement that included most of Northern Ireland’s political parties and an international agreement between the British and Irish governments.21 The Agreement is divided up into 14 main aspects; the consent principle; self-determination; reform of the policing system; prisoners; bill of rights; abandonment of violence; security cooperation; cross-border cooperation; recognition of both identities; inter-governmental cooperation; institutional role of the Republic of Ireland; power-sharing; inter-island cooperation; and devolution of powers. 22 Many of these aspects are deeply entwined in their implementation from self-determination to recognition, to power-sharing and devolution. Thus, it is important to examine some of these individual aspects may too see whether they led to the endurance of peace within the Agreement

The Agreement was about building a community of peace within Northern Ireland as part of the peace process. 23 Peace was not instantaneous and took mediation from other actors, such

18_{Megan Myers, Moving Terrorists from the streets to a Diamond-shaped table: The International History of}

the Northern Ireland Conflict 1969-1999, (Boston College, 2011), p.4.

19_{Megan Myers, Moving Terrorists from the streets to a Diamond-shaped table: The International History of}

the Northern Ireland Conflict 1969-1999, p.4.

20_{Seamus Dunn, Jacqueline Nolcan- Haley, Conflict in Northern Ireland after the Good Friday Agreement,}

Fordham International Law Journal, p.1372.

21_{The Belfast Agreement, GB. -RI, -NI, (10}th_{of April 1998),}

<https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136652/agre ement.pdf>, [Accessed 9th_{November 2018].}

22_{The Belfast Agreement, GB. -RI, -NI.}

23_{Seamus Dunn, Jacqueline Nolcan- Haley, Conflict in Northern Ireland after the Good Friday Agreement,}

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as the United States, to build trust. As part of this peace process the people of Northern Ireland were given the right to vote on the Agreement, this was through two referendums, one for the Republic as well, and a general election. 24 The implementation of the Agreement occurred over time, which could be seen as adding to its success and sustainability, through the involvement of internal legitimate political actors and non-legitimate political actors, such as the paramilitaries. These actors moved away from violence and conflict, moving towards the need to protect their legitimacy in the eyes of the international community. Over time this and other aspect have helped lead to the decommissioning of arms by paramilitary groups (2005-2017), and the rise of former activists/terrorists to prominent positions in the government.25_As

well as the implementation of human rights which allowed the political representatives of Northern Ireland to give a voice to their electorate, through a devolved government.26 The divide within the country has meant that the political actors have come together, with shared majorities to govern Northern Ireland, allowing Westminster to devolve powers to NI Executive (December 1999).27

This thesis will look at how the peace process in Northern Ireland has not led straight to peace; instead it has led to negative peace.28 Tensions still remain between religious and political groups, that have self-segregated and have also been segregated by the government.29 John Galtung introduced the term ‘negative peace’ describing it as being ‘the absence of war’.30 This could be applied to the situation in Northern Ireland, but this term also highlights that violence is still very much prevalent in its society, and this has meant that Northern Irish peace is fragile in nature.31

The Good Friday Agreement is seen as a pillar for peace accords, agreements and peace processes. 32 This is because it has now lasted over 20 years and has managed to work at setting

24_{Seamus Dunn, Jacqueline Nolcan-Haley, Conflict in Northern Ireland after the Good Friday Agreement,}

25_{Conor Lally, The decommissioning of the Provisional IRA, 10 years on, (September 26}th_2015),

<https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/the-decommissioning-of-the-provisional-ira-10-years-on-1.2367009>, [Accessed 31st_{May 2019].}

26_{Conor Lally, The decommissioning of the Provisional IRA, 10 years on.} 27_{Institute for Government. Devolved administrations,}

<https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/devolution-at-20/devolved-administrations>,

[Accessed 31st_{May 2019].}

28_{Johan Galtung, A synthetic Approach to Peace Thinking Theories of Peace, (Oslo, September 1967), p.12.} 29_{Seamus Dunn, Jacqueline Nolcan-Haley, Conflict in Northern Ireland after the Good Friday Agreement,}

30_{Johan Galtung, A synthetic Approach to Peace Thinking Theories of Peace, p.12.} 31_{Johan Galtung, A synthetic Approach to Peace Thinking Theories of Peace, p.12.}

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in place its aspects, evolving them to deal with the issues at hand.33 It was introduced slowly over time, to allow people to accept it.34 Due to the considered ‘success’ of the Good Friday Agreement in its longevity and implementation, it is important to assess how the individual factors have been applied.35 Exploring whether they may have been influential in the peace process, allowing Northern Ireland to move towards positive peace.36

As the Good Friday Agreement is seen as a unique approach to ‘solving conflict’ this thesis will consider whether the aspects of the Agreement have led to its sustained peace process over the past 20 years.37_{I will aim to do this by establishing whether individual aspects have indeed}

lead to peace and whether they have been successful in their implementation. Thus, the research question posed by this thesis is:

‘What key elements of the Good Friday Agreement have aided the peace process in Northern Ireland since its creation in 1998?’

To explain the circumstances behind this research, this thesis will first provide a summary of the complex history. From the start of the ‘Troubles’ in 1968 to the signing of the Good Friday Agreement on the 11th of April 1998. It will then discuss the peace process in Northern Ireland since the Agreements implementation and whether it may have been successful in its aim of peace.38 Using previous academic discussion and analysis of the peace processes, some significant features of the process have been highlighted, these will form the basis of the analysis of this thesis. One of these was institutional reform or devolved governance in the case of Northern Ireland. The devolved government was considered a fundamental part of the Good Friday Agreement as well as a controversial one presented by the media, therefore I have chosen it to be one of the aspects that will be analysed within this thesis.39 This analysis will

39_{Timothy J White, Cooperation Theory and the Northern Ireland Peace Process, (Manchester University}

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aim to show if and when the devolved government has been operational during the past twenty years and whether it has achieved the role it was set out to do.

The second aspect that has been highlighted for this thesis is the reformation of the police. It was seen as a crucial part of the agreement – Strand 3 Policing and Justice – the participants ‘believe that the agreement provides the opportunity for a new beginning to policing in Northern Ireland with a police service capable of attracting and sustaining support from the community as a whole’. 40_{Police reform has been highlighted in order to examine and}

determine whether it has been a factor in the peace process.41_{Through extensive reading of the}

literature on the conflict in Northern Ireland, the police were pointed out to be an added cause in the sectarian division in Northern Ireland, identified as being an institution that only supported the Protestant, and thus division.42 Both of these aspects will be analysed in reference to the five hypotheses, presented later in this thesis. The aspects will then be carefully combined in order to find out what they meant the peace process and long-term peace in Northern Ireland. Although this thesis will concentrate on the aspects of police reform and devolution, it must be considered that there are a range of other elements that have affected the peace processes. The Good Friday Agreement is made up of 14 different aspects; the consent principle, self-determination, reform of the policing system, prisoners, bill of rights, abandonment of violence, security cooperation, cross-border cooperation, recognition of both identities, governmental cooperation, Institutional role of the Republic of Ireland, power-sharing, inter-island cooperation, and devolution of powers.43 These have all been evident through the research for this thesis, often connected to the two isolated aspects that this thesis focuses on. Some of these aspects have been argued by other academics to have had a significant impact on the success of the peace process.44 An example of this in Northern Ireland is the release of prisoners a extremely contentious issue for the people of Northern Ireland.45 This was because many prisoners that were released had been involved in the death of others during the

40_{University of Notre Dame, Police reform: Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement: Strand Three Policing}

and Justice Peace Accords Matrix, < https://peaceaccords.nd.edu/provision/police-reform-northern-ireland-good-friday-agreement>, [Accessed 4th_{June 2019].}

41_{University of Notre Dame, Police reform: Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement: Strand Three Policing}

and Justice Peace Accords Matrix.

43_{The Belfast Agreement, GB. -RI, -NI.}

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‘Troubles’.46 This caused deep divides in the Northern Irish society but was partly responsible for bringing Sinn Fein and other republicans to the table for the talks.47 Human rights were also a contentious issue in Northern Ireland coming up during the start of the ‘Troubles’ with the civil rights movement, considered to be one of the main reasons for the starting of the ‘Troubles’.48_{In 1999 the NI Human Rights Commission (NIHRC) was created which allowed}

the incorporation of the European Convention on Human Rights in Northern Ireland.49 These are just two aspects that could be looked at in-depth to see if there is a correlation between them and the decrease in violence and the creation of peace, but this thesis will concentrate on the two aspects of devolution and police reform.

International involvement has also had an immense effect on the peace process in Northern Ireland. This is shown by the frequent mention of international actors in the creation of the Agreement. Which is evident in this thesis through the analysis of the Irish Times and the monitoring reports that have shown the frequent occurrence of Northern Irish political actors asking for help or more involvement from the US, UK and RoI governments, often expecting them to deal with impasses in the devolved government.50

ACADEMIC AND SOCIAL REVELEVANCE OF THE STUDY

The United Kingdom is in a state of disruption and confusion as it attempts to implement Brexit, this leaves Northern Ireland in a disconcerting and precautious situation due to trade and its border with the Republic of Ireland.51 Due to this, it is important to establish whether aspects of the Good Friday Agreements have been successfully implemented and have stopped Northern Ireland falling back into conflict in the past twenty year. This could allow future studies to establish whether these issues will stop Northern Ireland falling back into conflict due to the problems of a hard or soft border.

This thesis will help to examine the social events and discussions that ran through the twenty years 1998-2018. This will be done by looking in detail at some of the aspects - devolution and police reform, of the Agreements in relation to the events as they occurred, providing a possible

46_{Moriarty, Gerry, Unionist angry at moves to release IRA prisoners early.} 47_{Moriarty, Gerry, Unionist angry at moves to release IRA prisoners early.} 48_{John Dorney, The Northern Ireland Conflict 1968-1998 Overview.}

49_{Paul Nolan, Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report: Number One, p.25.} 50_{Paul Nolan, Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report: Number One, p.134.}

51_{Rory Carroll, Northern Ireland businesses warned over no-deal Brexit, (12}th_{June 2019),}

<https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jun/12/northern-ireland-businesses-warned-over-no-deal-brexit>, [Accessed 4th_{July 2019].}

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social understanding to the academic discussion on the peace process and overall peace in Northern Ireland.

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THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The following section will explain how the proposed question will be examined by exploring the different discussions on peace and its application.

Peace and peace processes are a vital part of helping a country heal post-conflict and can be part of creating long term peace, recovery and healing.52 There are multiple definitions of peace three of these suggest that peace can be; ‘a state of tranquillity or quiet’; ‘freedom from disquieting or oppressive thoughts or emotions’; and ‘harmony in personal relations’. 53 It can be suggested that all of these are issues faced after a duration of conflict.54 Academically peace can be considered as the idea of the absence of war.55 To achieve peace countries, organisation and citizens must go through a journey of negotiation and agreement to allows them to begin to create long-term peace.56

PEACE PROCESSES

Peace processes are the actions that work towards a resolution of conflict and later the mediation and signing of a peace agreement or peace accord.57 Peace processes have moved on from ‘a simple ceasefire’ to ‘consolidating self-sustaining peace’ - a much longer process that looks towards peace as the long term goal rather than just removing conflict and violence as noted by Call.58_{Brewer argues that peace processes are divided into two aspects; political}

and social peace processes and that these can carry on long after a peace accord has been signed.59 Political peace process is the act of negotiation by political representatives and third parties towards peace settlements, usually a compromise in hopes of bringing the conflict or violence to an end. 60 While social peace processes are the ‘healing and relationship rebuilding

53_{Merriam-Webster, peace, <https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/peace >, [Accessed 21st May}

2019].

54_{Merriam-Webster, peace.}

55_{Paul F. Diehl, Exploring Peace: Looking Beyond War and Negative Peace International Studies Quarterly,}

vo. 60, Issue 1, (March 2016), p. 1.

56_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, 2}nd

edition, p. 648.

57_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p. 648.} 58_{Charles T. Call, Knowing Peace When You See it: Setting Standards for Peacebuilding Success Civil Wars,}

(July 2008), p.173.

59_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.649.} 60_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.649.}

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after conflict’ within the problematic society.61 It can be seen that when there is a political peace process, this does not always lead to social peace processes and can leave deeply ingrained cultural and community-based issues.62 From this perspective, peace processes continue long after an accord or agreement is signed, which is reiterated by Johnathan Tonge, as he states ‘the term process acknowledges that war does not end suddenly, but is contained, managed and possibly resolved’ over an extended period of time.63 Call points out that without knowing the type of peace that is needed can make ‘effective strategies…. problematic’.64_Mac

Ginty asserts that international involvement is present during almost all peace processes in No

War, No Peace: The Rejuvenation of Stalled Peace Processes and Peace Accords, a sentiment

that arguably runs through both Brewer and Call’s arguments. 65_{International actors are often}

there to ‘monitor the accord(s)’, and to provide support.66 This can lead to them becoming overly involved and fundamental to the maintenance of talks and cooperation, which means that the post-conflict state is left struggling and unprotected when international actors leave the conversation.67 The literature suggests that peace processes are ongoing even after the implementation of a peace accord/agreement and often have international involvement. There are many different reasons and theories why political leaders and actors may come together to work towards peace, often using peace agreements and accords to try and reinforce this. Cooperation Theory is the notion that actors involved in the conflict may come together after a history of hostile behaviour to create long-term peace, as conflict is no longer an option.

68_{The theory suggests that it is important to consider the interconnectedness of political leaders}

when it comes to decision making.69 This is because cooperation often comes from an agreement or accord that is a half-way point between the political actors, and thus, it is important that there is the ability to forgive for future cooperation.70 This may suggest that agreements are often divided to cover all aspects that need amending to maintain future peace.

61_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.649.} 62_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.650.} 63_{Jonathan Tongee, Comparative Peace Processes, (Polity Press, June 2014), p.16.}

64_{Charles T. Call, Knowing Peace When You See it: Setting Standards for Peacebuilding Success Civil Wars,}

p.174

65_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.649.,}

Jonathan Tongee, Comparative Peace Processes, p.56. Roger Mac Ginty, No War, No Peace: The Rejuvenation

of Stalled Peace Processes and Peace Accords, (Palgrave Macmillian, January 2016), p.164.

66_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.649.} 67_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.249.,}

Jonathan Tongee, Comparative Peace Processes, p.56., Roger Mac Ginty, No War, No Peace: The Rejuvenation

of Stalled Peace Processes and Peace Accords, p.164.

68_{Robert Axelrod, The evolution of Co-operation, (London, Penguin Books, 1984). p.150.} 69_{Robert Axelrod, The evolution of Co-operation, (London, Penguin Books, 1984). p.150.} 70_{Robert Axelrod, The evolution of Co-operation, (London, Penguin Books, 1984). p.150.}

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The cooperation during the creation of an agreement can help create a sense of pride over a document and the possibility that actors feel more pride and defensive of something they have helped create. 71

Timothy J White expands on Cooperation Theory and explains that a sense of ownership of the Good Friday Agreement was given to the political parties, and this was an important factor.72 He goes onto explain that, Northern Ireland, Britain and the Republic of Ireland have moved onwards from the start of the negotiation in 1997, to redefine and reconceptualise their individual points of view and beliefs as the peace process has progressed.73_{White points out}

the importance of involvement for both the Unionist Party and the Nationalists - allowing Sinn Féin to be involved gave them a sense of pride in the creation of the agreement.74 He also highlights the importance of gaining a sense of trust across all parties over a period of time as this enabled the process of decommissioning of the opposing groups to make way for peaceful talks and coalitions.75

In Peace Agreements: Their Nature and Legal Status, Christine Bell explores what peace agreement means, whether they follow patterns, dividing them into ‘Prenegotiation Agreement’, ‘Substantive/Framework Agreements’ and ‘Implementation/Renegotiation Agreements’.76 Bell points out that legally the application of these agreements varies, especially in the implementation, and changes from country to country, showing that peace agreements must face a range of social, political and environmental issues.77 The prenegotiation is an important part as this is the phase when those involved work out whether the other actors are sincere in their goal of peace rather than having their own agendas.78 This is when ‘an initial roadmap’ is outlined, allowing actors to come together in a safe environment so that they can concentrate on the challenges to come.79

71_{Robert Axelrod, The evolution of Co-operation, (London, Penguin Books, 1984). p.150.} 72_{Timothy J White, Cooperation Theory and the Northern Ireland Peace Process, p.207.} 73_{Timothy J White, Cooperation Theory and the Northern Ireland Peace Process, p.207.} 74_{Timothy J White, Cooperation Theory and the Northern Ireland Peace Process, p.207.} 75_{White, p.211.}

76_{Christine Bell, ‘Peace Agreements: Their Nature and Legal Status’, The American Journal of International}

Law, vol. 100, no.2, (2006), 373-412, p.375-378.

77_{Bell, p.375-378.}

78_{V. Fisas, The principles of mediation and the role of third parties in peace processes Norwegian}

Peacebuilding Resource Centre, p.4.

79_{V. Fisas, The principles of mediation and the role of third parties in peace processes Norwegian}

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Peace processes are the movement toward peace, but this does not mean that peace is achieved straight away. 80 This has led to a discussion of different types of peace, such as positive and negative peace.81

POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE PEACE

Positive and negative peace constantly appear within the academic discourse on countries after conflict. ‘Peace’ is a construction and often if the issues that caused the violence in the first place are not dealt with the hidden tensions can bubble to the surface and cause intense periods of violence even after an agreement or accord, Richmond explains. 82 Thus, peace could be divided up into ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ peace. 83 ‘Negative peace’ can simply be described as ‘the absence of war’ that occurs when conflict is no longer the best opinion, which fits in with the previous mentioned Cooperation Theory. 84 The other segment of peace is ‘positive peace’ ‘a synonym for all other good things in the world community, particularly cooperation and integration between human groups, with less emphasis on the absence of violence’.85 This suggests that negative peace can be found at the beginning: ‘the ending of violence and establishing stability is a great achievement, and clearly the prerequisite to any further peace-building and reconstruction objectives’.86 To consider these two different types of peace, it should be highlighted that whilst positive peace is found to be a more secure version of peace, negative peace is often referred to as ‘fragile peace’, and in some societies where negative peace is found, conflict is often ‘recurrent’, which perhaps follows the line of Northern Irelands previous peace attempts.87 Paul Diehl points out that ‘the absence of high levels of violent conflict is component of peace, but should not be considered the only one’ which also can be applied to Northern Ireland after the peace agreement.88_{Diehl states the importance of}

establishing a peace agreement, but that in building positive peace it is important to have

80_{Johan Galtung, A synthetic Approach to Peace Thinking Theories of Peace, p.12.} 81_{Johan Galtung, A synthetic Approach to Peace Thinking Theories of Peace, p.12.}

82_{Oliver P. Richmond, The problem of peace: understanding the ‘liberal peace’, Conflict Security and}

Development, (October 2006), p. 293.

83_{Johan Galtung, A synthetic Approach to Peace Thinking Theories of Peace, p.12.} 84_{Johan Galtung, A synthetic Approach to Peace Thinking Theories of Peace, p.12.} 85_{Johan Galtung, A synthetic Approach to Peace Thinking Theories of Peace, p.12.}

86_{Edward Newman, A human Security Peace-Building Agenda Third World Quarterly, p.1742.} 87_{Edward Newman, A human Security Peace-Building Agenda Third World Quarterly, p.1742.}

88_{Paul Diehl, Thinking about Peace: Negative Terms versus Positive Outcomes, Strategic Studies Quarterly 10,}

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‘ongoing commitments by the international community’, and that without censorship, negative peace and secularism can occur.89

Therefore, the literature suggests that to move from negative peace to positive peace, a range of factors need to come together through compromise and cooperation, to create long sustainable peace.

COMPROMISE AND COOPERATION

As Axelrod said, states or countries can come together after a history of violence, but to do this, there must be interconnectedness of political leaders to work together to compromise.90 Compromise can be thought of as the ‘means for resolving conflict whereby disputants agree to mutual concessions’.91 These ‘concessions’ can be through political means as well as being processes for creating neutral ground which fulfil the needs of both without harming the other’s needs.92 It has been suggested that this can come through the involvement of ‘intervention’ by international actors, which can often be initiated by these actors fluctuating ‘the decision of whom to support, or which antagonist to constrain’.93 An outcome of compromise can be the creation of an agreement which can be ‘most successful in prolonging peace duration’ by creating ‘power-sharing, provisions for formal reconciliation, and integrative efforts to provide greater insight into the success or failure of a settlement’.94 Peace agreements can be found to fail in implementation ‘through wilful abrogation of the terms of one party or via a lack of structural or institutional capability’.95_{Compromise can sometimes come through ultimatums}

from different sides, and often this is to make the other political actors agree to sections of the

89_{Paul Diehl, Thinking about Peace: Negative Terms versus Positive Outcomes, Strategic Studies Quarterly 10,}

p.8.

90_{Robert Axelrod, The evolution of Co-operation, (London, Penguin Books, 1984). p.150.}

91_{Michael Mousseau, Democracy and Compromise in Militarized Interstate Conflicts, 1816-1992 The Journal}

of Conflict resolution, Vol. 42. No.2 (April 1998), p.210.

92_{Michael Mousseau, Democracy and Compromise in Militarized Interstate Conflicts, 1816-1992 The Journal}

of Conflict resolution, p. 212.

93_{Patrick M. Regan, Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts The Journal of}

Conflict resolution, Vol. 40, No.2 (June 1996), p.339.

94_{Karl DeRouen Jr., Mark J Ferguson, Samuel Norton, Young Hwan Park, Jenna Lea and Ashley Strat-Bartlett,}

Civil war peace agreement implementation and state capacity Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 47, No. 3, Special Issue on State Capacity and Civil War, (May 2010), p. 334.

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accord created.96 Additionally, compromise can also come through the creation of institutions that monitor and aim to protect the agreement forged with the intention of long-term peace, such as the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning.97

Cooperation can help lead to the re-establishment of political and social frameworks in a State that was previously divided by conflict, this can be achieved through the use of methods such as statebuilding and peacebuilding.98

STATEBUILDING

Statebuilding has become an important part of securing long term peace, Newman describes this as ‘effective (preferably liberal) states form the greatest prospect for stable international order’, and allow for ‘strengthening institutions of justice and legislation’ that creates ‘inclusive democratic practices’ and a movement towards development in the post-cold war world.99 This liberalist approach often sets up what they believe to be ‘effective’ state institutions’ in relations to ‘the establishment of legal systems, improvements in the performance of national police agencies, and the holding of elections’ Newman argues. 100 From this aspect, it could be argued that statebuilding can be seen ‘as a sub-set of development, or it may, in fact, be an over-arching aim of development’.101

Wesley argues that Western states that dominate the construction of peace arena create ‘a remarkably similarity among their conceptions of state functions and priorities for addressing state failure’ and thus that statebuilding is being applied across the world in the same fashion.102

Marquette and Beswick suggest similarly to this that there is a ‘normative assumption… that a state is a liberal market democracy spread over a defined geographic territory’ and this could

Civil war peace agreement implementation and state capacity Journal of Peace Research,, p.340.

97_{UK Parliament, Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (Final report) (July 2011), <}

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2011-07-04/debates/1107043000013/IndependentInternationalCommissionOnDecommissioning%28FinalReport%29>, [Accessed 3rd_{May 2019].}

98_{Edward Newman, A human Security Peace-Building Agenda Third World Quarterly, Vol.32, No. 10 State}

Building, Security and Development, (2011) p. 1738-1740.

101_{Heather Marquette and Danielle Beswick, Introduction State Building, Security and Development: state}

building as a new development paradigm? Third World Quarterly, Vol. 32, No. 10, (2010, Taylor & Francis Ltd), p.1705.

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be seen as the ‘transfer of Western values, institutions and norms’.103 This tone could suggest that statebuilding is about ‘meeting the needs of the external actors in the international community, rather than the needs of poor communities on the ground’.104 Which is endorsed by Moore, who implies that statebuilding is often in practice ‘building political authority among a narrow group of elites through an (over)emphasis on institution-building’.105_{Thus it}

important to highlight that ‘societies do not become fragile, or conflict-affected, because they lack a state, rather the states, institutions and political authorities that do exist have in some way contributed to fragility’.106

Brewer points out that ‘all effective peacebuilding occurs’ on the foundation of ‘stable statebuilding’, as to begin building peace actors need first to concentrate on ‘structures and institutions, which could in the long term affect the peace process.107 Statebuilding can often be misconstrued and used to replace peacebuilding in the literature, but statebuilding can be separated from the building of peace as it must be considered before peacebuilding can occur.108

PEACEBUILDING

Peacebuilding incorporates a large range of ‘post-conflict intervention by the international community’, ‘UN Secretary-General Boutros-Ghalis described the concept of peacebuilding as the construction of a new environment’.109

Conflict and violence are often most likely to occur within groups or societies that are at risk of instability due to being ‘deeply polarised’, which was the situation within Northern Ireland during the ‘Troubles’. 110 According to Bleiker and Krupanski, peacebuilding helps to create a

building as a new development paradigm? Third World Quarterly, p.1706.

107_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.648.} 108_{Catherine Goetze, A social analysis of Peacebuilding The Distinction of Peace, (university of Michigan Press}

2017), p.44.

109_{Sarah Keeler, Peacebuilding The Performance and Politics of Trauma in Northern Iraq The Pos-Conflict}

Environment, (University of Michigan Press 2014), p.69.

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‘secure and stable environment’ so that governments are able to provide ‘security services in accordance with the rule of law and human rights’ 111 Brewer states that to begin peacebuilding you must first start a peace process and that peacebuilding and statebuilding can help with the continuation of creating a society with ‘fairer systems of voting, more representative forms of political institutions, legal system that enshrine human rights law or bill of rights, a free press independent of regime interference and workable institutions for decision-making and policy implementation are among the main features of statebuilding’ which can be a avenue towards ‘successful peacebuilding’.112_{The UN’s Capstone doctrine states that ‘peacebuilding rests}

upon four critical areas: security and public order; rule of law and respect for human rights; political representation and participation; and socio-economic development’.113_{Peacebuilding}

often comes in the final stages of a conflict and is there to reinforce peace through ‘stabilisation, reconstruction and institution-building’ to help combat ‘the root causes of conflict to build institutions’.114

INSTITUTIONAL REFORM

Once a peace agreement or accord is established, statebuilding can begin and lead the way for peacebuilding and with this can come the reforming of institutions such as governments.115 Hoelscher stated that ‘countries with weaker democratic institutions are more prone to different forms of lethal violence’ ‘that are often linked to illegitimate political institutions or competitive politics’ this could suggest that institutional reform can create a strong governance structure that will lead to the decrease in violence.116

Peacebuilding can help lead to building ‘social and governance structures for sustained peace’ which means that it is vital to create a public system that allows secure and protect the peace process.117_{It is suggested that peace agreements can lead to a radical change in the institutions}

111_{Chistoph Bleiker and Marc Krupanski, The peacebuilding context The Rule of law and Security Sector}

Reform, Ubiquity Press, Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces, 2012), p.13.

112_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.649.} 113_{Chistoph Bleiker and Marc Krupanski, The peacebuilding context The Rule of law and Security Sector}

Reform, p.13.

Reform, p.11.

116_{Kristian Hoelscher, Institutional Reform and Violence Reduction in Pernambuco, Brazil Journal of Latin}

American Studies, Vol. 49, Issue 4 (Cambridge University Pres, 10th_{October 2017), p. 860-861.}

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within the previous conflict controlled country.118 Reforming the government can allow for ‘democratic participation’ and thus a sense of pride within the institution and those elected to represent the people.119 Post War peacebuilding has moved onwards from the ideas of ceasefires and looks to ‘promoting and facilitating democratic practices’ Newman argues.120 However, Mount calls it ‘restoration or reconstitution of political community’, this is the idea that ‘political life’ is to ‘support everyday life, as life is still busy and complicated during the peace process and political institution must make it possible for life to carry on.121_{A political}

sphere can be the basis of all other reforms and peacebuilding actions from human rights to police institutions, providing legitimacy for change that allows for peace to be built and solidified.122_{This falls into political peace processes Brewer discussed, as actions that bring}

about structures and institutions with ‘good governance’ in the case of statebuilding are needed to create the ‘foundation on which all effective peacebuilding occurs’ which in the long term aims to achieve ‘conflict transformation’.123 Hoelscher believes violence to be the ‘failure of social and political institutions’ as ‘weak democratic capacity’ undermines the rule of law’.124 Hoelscher and Brewer both emphasis that reform is not only crucial for peace processes in a political form such as creating good governance, but also in the case of security. 125 This provides safety and protection to citizens and allows them to have confidence in their reformed institutions.126

118_{Christine Ball and Catherine O’Rourke, The People’s Peace? Peace Agreements, Civil Society, and}

Participatory Democracy International Political Science Review, Vol. 28, No. 3, (June 2007), p.299.

Reform, p.10.

120_{Edward Newman, A human Security Peace-Building Agenda Third World Quarterly, p.1738.}

121_{Gavin Mount, Hybrid Peace/War Hybridity on the Ground in Peacebuilding and Development, (ANU Press,}

2018), p.216.

122_{Gavin Mount, Hybrid Peace/War Hybridity on the Ground in Peacebuilding and Development, p.216.} 123_{John D. Brewer, Peace Processes International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioural Sciences, p.648.} 124_{Kristian Hoelscher, Institutional Reform and Violence Reduction in Pernambuco, Brazil Journal of Latin}

American Studies, p.861.

Kristian Hoelscher, Institutional Reform and Violence Reduction in Pernambuco, Brazil Journal of Latin

American Studies, p.861.

Kristian Hoelscher, Institutional Reform and Violence Reduction in Pernambuco, Brazil Journal of Latin

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SECURITY SECTOR REFORM

Security sector reform (SSR) was a term coined in the late 1990s moving from an agenda that aimed to ‘conceptualise policies of reform for security forces based on experiences from Central and Eastern Europeans States at the end of the Cold War’ to the task of ‘contributing to building capacity within States to deliver security and justice for the state and its people’.127 Creating a security sector that is a trusted ‘asset’ and not ‘an obstacle’ can help lead to broader peacebuilding, Schnabel and Born put forward.128 Kocak goes further and suggests that reforms are also aimed at the main public institutions such as ‘national police, the national military as well as the national intelligence agencies’ with ‘internal control mechanisms’ that allow for ‘more transparent and accountable self-control’.129 von Dyck agrees with this sentiment but elaborates on it saying that there are three steps; first there must be a restoration of order by ‘neutralising and delegitimising so-called illegal, non-statutory armed groups’, second must be the ‘re-establishing of formal state security forces to maintain public order within the rule of law’, and then thirdly the ‘restoring or establishing (of) state institutions that oversee and monitor these security forces to ensure compliance with formal rules and norms’.130

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2007 emphasised the ‘need to foster a supportive political environment through in-depth knowledge of a given reform context’ on local ownership so that not only in international reform occurring but also domestic security reform that applies on a local level to citizens.131_{This was based on the ‘core}

principle’ that States need to ‘govern their societies according to liberal, democratic principles, and standards’.132_{Thus it is important to not only have ‘a functioning police’ service that does}

day-to-day work but also to make sure that ‘the objectives of democratic governance are actually implemented and followed within the organisational apparatus’, - this is what Kocak

127_{Christopher von Dyck, The DDR-SSR Nexus DDR and SSR in War-to-Peace Transition, (Ubiquity Press,}

Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces, 2016), p.10.

128_{Albrecht Schnable and Hans Born, Security Sector reform in theory Narrowing the Gap between Theory and}

Practice, (Ubiquity Press, Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces, 2011), p. 1-11.

129_{Denis Kocak, rethinking Community Policing in International Police reform International Police Reform}

Initiatives in the Context of SSR, (Ubiquity Press, Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces,

2018), p.4.

130_{Christopher von Dyck, The DDR-SSR Nexus DDR and SSR in War-to-Peace Transition, p.11.} 131_{Christopher von Dyck, The DDR-SSR Nexus DDR and SSR in War-to-Peace Transition, p.12.} 132_{Christopher von Dyck, The DDR-SSR Nexus DDR and SSR in War-to-Peace Transition, p.13.}

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believes must occur in security sector reform.133 Kocak also states that the police service is an important actor, reforming is essential to follow ‘along the principles of good governance’ and that it ‘is a major aim of international police reform initiatives in developing and transitional countries’.134

Thus, through reforming the security sector institutions, including the police service, within these countries, the security sector can become an ‘asset’ as Schnabel and Born suggested, with ‘medium- to long-term goals to improving institutional and governance capacity of states’.135

From this, it can be taken that security sector reform works towards the long-term creation of positive peace based on institutions that support and protect peace within societies.136

CONCLUSION

This sub-section has discussed the current literature and theories on peace processes and how peace is not an immediate action but that there are often many processes to follow before ‘positive peace’ can be achieved. When analysing peace processes, it can be seen that reforming public institutions is often fundamental to the end of conflict for all sides. Thus, it is essential to isolate what the changing and reforming of public institutions could mean for the overall peace process in Northern Ireland. With the research found in this theoretical framework this thesis will focus on the importance of the reformation of the police force, as security sector reform, in Northern Ireland partly because of the significant part they had played in the history of the ‘Troubles’ and partly because of the importance of the police force as an major institution within the peace process of Northern Ireland. Devolution will be the other aspect, as it could be considered as one of the main elements of the Good Friday Agreement. It was highlighted by the theoretical framework in the discussion of institutional reform and statebuilding, especially crucial to the political peace processes.

Initiatives in the Context of SSR, p.5

135_{Albrecht Schnable and Hans Born, Security Sector reform in theory Narrowing the Gap between Theory and}

Practice, p.11, Christopher von Dyck, The DDR-SSR Nexus DDR and SSR in War-to-Peace Transition, p.13.

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METHODOLOGY

RESEARCH DESIGN

Causal mechanisms

Peace is the end aim of the peace process; therefore, it is crucial to analyse what factors lead to peace, and what type of peace they create. This led to the following research question:What key elements of the Good Friday Agreement have aided the peace process in Northern Ireland since its creation in 1998?

In the theoretical framework previously presented, it was highlighted that institutional reform, be it governmental or security-based can be significant features of peace processes, with the long-lasting hopes of positive peace. In a conflict, or post-conflict country it is important to have cooperation and compromise as stated within the theoretical framework, as this is what is needed to bring about the reformation of institutions and maintain them through a peace process.

The Good Friday Agreement has led to a range of institutional reforms, such as reform in the construction of a devolved government and in the case of security sector reform is the reformation of the Northern Irish police force from the RUC to the PSNI. Following the theoretical framework, these two aspects were shown to have significant importance to the continuation of the peace process. Devolution was chosen due to it being a foundational part of the Good Friday Agreement, and because many of the other thirteen factors would not be achievable without it, it also allowed for a connection to another aspect - the abandonment of violence which connects with the main theme in this thesis – negative peace. Police reform was decided on due to the idea of perceptions, the police had held negative connotations before the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, the theoretical framework highlighted that there was a need for institutions to change and uphold the rule of law and human rights, making it a pivotal part of moving Northern Ireland away from being a fragile society towards one with positive peace. This will help give an understanding of how citizens having confidence in their domestic institutions can affect peace. Therefore, the independent variables used for the analysis for this research are a devolved government; and police reform, with the dependent being peace presented in Figure 1.

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Figure 1: Dependent and independent variables analysed within this research

CASE STUDY

A case study approach to this research has been chosen to provide an ‘in-depth’ look at a particular peace process and to investigate whether certain parameters of a peace process have been significant in the continued sustainability of peace. This form of research will be discussed in more depth later in the methodology. Yin identified four main case study designs. One of which was the single case study design.137 He stated that this 'can focus on a critical case, an extreme case, a unique case, a representative or typical case, a revelatory case (an opportunity to research a case heretofore unresearched), a longitudinal case.’138 Cohen, Manion, and Morrison suggest that a case study provides an example of real people within real-life situations.139 They suggest this enables readers to understand ideas more clearly than using

137_{Robert K Yin, Case Study Research: Design and Methods, (California, Sage 2009), 4}th_{ed., p. 46.} 138_{Robert K Yin, Case Study Research: Design and Methods, p.46.}

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principles or theories that may be considered abstract.140 Yin goes on to state that they support us to understand how these abstract principles and ideas can then fit together.141

The Good Friday Agreement or Belfast Agreement was chosen for this research due to its longevity and its frequent reoccurrence in the discussion of peace, as well as the now fragile nature of that peace in Northern Ireland with the onset of Brexit.142 Therefore, it was felt appropriate that a single case study design would be able to examine these factors in more detail.

Northern Ireland is an important example of a religious and political divide based on the impacts of colonial rule by the British, an issue felt throughout the postcolonial world.143 These colonised countries faced the issue of dealing with both their own culture and that of their colonial oppressors, which meant that when many of the Western powers removed their presence, the colonised countries were left divided through every aspect of life.144

Although the Republic of Ireland has achieved its sovereignty, Northern Ireland is still divided by the main two cultural and religious fractions.145 As the cultural fractures exist around the world, it important to analyse aspects of how Northern Ireland has managed to create the current negative peace and maintain their peace process in order to consider if any of the aspects of the peace process can be applied to other areas of conflict around the world. The theoretical framework has outlined that institutions can play a vital role in peacebuilding and peace processes, and in particular, the role of police and governmental institutions. The two aspects of devolution and police reform are the two focal point of the analysis. The single case study design will support the analysis to focus on the factors discussed and analysed in whether they have had an impact on the peace process in general and whether they have been crucial in the continuation of positive peace.

140_{Louis Cohen, Lawrence Manion & Keith Morrison, Research Methods Education, p.289} 141_{Robert K Yin, Case Study Research: Design and Methods, p.101.}

142_{Victoria Pope, In Northern Ireland, a Fragile Peace is Threatened, (December 2017),}

<https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/12/irish-borderlands-brexit-northern-ireland-britain/>, [Accessed 8th_{June 2019].}

143_{B Heidemann, Postcolonial to Post-Agreement: Theorising Northern Ireland’s Negative Liminality Post}

Agreement Northern Irish Literature, (Cham, Palgrave Macmillian, 24th_{June 2016), p.17.} 144_{BBC, 1155: Ireland, The First Colony, (27}th_{May 2005,}

<http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/history/empire/episodes/episode_02.shtml>, [Accessed 20th January 2019].

145_{B Heidemann, Postcolonial to Post-Agreement: Theorising Northern Ireland’s Negative Liminality Post}

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Hypotheses:

1. Devolution has given political actors in Northern Ireland the chance to be able to be

involved in legitimate political processes.

This hypothesis was surmised through the theoretical framework - the discussion on peace processes, statebuilding and institutional reform. Statebuilding, and institutional reform outline the importance of establishing institutions that make it possible to have elections and as well as create legitimate political governance.146 It was also highlighted that allowing ‘democratic participation’ can create a sense of pride in the institution of government and support.147 Allowing a range of actors to be involved in the peace process in Northern Ireland meant that actors such as Sinn Fein were able to part of a legitimate political process, as the devolved government emerged. 148 This hypothesis will measure when the devolved government is operational and when it is not, looking at the conversation between political actors that allowed the devolution to occur.

146_{Edward Newman, A human Security Peace-Building Agenda Third World Quarterly, p.1742., Kristian}

Hoelscher, Institutional Reform and Violence Reduction in Pernambuco, Brazil Journal of Latin American

Studies, p. 860-861.

Reform, p.10.

148_{Moriarty, Gerry, Unionist angry at moves to release IRA prisoners early.}

Figure 2:

Dependent and

independent

variables of

hypothesis 1

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2. Creating a devolved government has contributed to peace in Northern Ireland.

This hypothesis is based upon the discussion on positive and negative peace as well as in institutional reform presented in the theoretical framework. This thesis will be taking peace to be the absence of violence, but also discussing whether it is, in fact, negative peace that Galtung suggested that it is occurring in Northern Ireland.149 It is based on the idea that if there is a devolved government (legitimate governance) is there a decrease in violence. 150 Hoelscher pointed out that a stronger legitimate democratic institution can create a strong governance structure that can cause a reduction in violence.151 As the signing of the Good Friday Agreement was an aim at building long-term peace – the ‘ending’ of conflict. 152 It is important to establish whether the devolved government could stop/help stop ‘recurrent’ conflict that is associated with states recently out of conflict, in a condition of ‘fragile peace’.153

3. The reformation of the police system has created an institution that provides a sense of security for the citizens of Northern Ireland, specifically Catholic and Protestant.

149_{Johan Galtung, A synthetic Approach to Peace Thinking Theories of Peace, p.12.}

The Sustainability of the Good Friday Agreement