Based on the results it could be concluded that at first, because of the decline in number of students, there will be enough personnel or even a personnel surplus

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DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND THE LABOUR MARKET

The influence of demographic changes and financial attractiveness of teaching on personnel management in primary and secondary education.

Master thesis, specialization Human Resource Management University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business

August, 2010

MARITA J. VAN DER NET Studentnumber: 1478230

Aquamarijnstraat 785 9743 PV Groningen tel.: +031 (0)6 54692237 m.j.van.der.net@student.rug.nl

Supervisor/university Dr. P.H. van der Meer

Supervisor/field of study Mr. W.A. Looijenga Onderwijs Service Groep, Assen

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ABSTRACT

Demographic changes are apparent all-over the world. In this research it was investigated how these changes, specifically the ageing of the society and the decline in number of newborns, influence the size of schools and with that, the labour market in primary education in the three northern provinces of the Netherlands. It was investigated whether these developments would be in step with each other or that problems would arise. Based on the results it could be concluded that at first, because of the decline in number of students, there will be enough personnel or even a personnel surplus. Due to lacking prognoses regarding students numbers at teachers colleges no definite conclusions can be drawn about what will happen after the retirement of almost half of the current workforce. A tentative advice for school boards would be to work together on a larger scale.

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CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ... 2

CONTENTS ... 3

INTRODUCTION ... 4

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ... 4

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS ... 5

PERSONNEL PLANNING... 5

RESEARCH QUESTION ... 6

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ... 7

THE AGEING OF TEACHING PERSONNEL ... 7

DECREASE IN SCHOOL SIZE ... 8

AWARENESS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES... 9

COSTS AND BENEFITS ... 11

PAY AND CAREER OPPORTUNITY ... 12

PERSONNEL PLANNING ... 15

METHODS ... 17

DATA GATHERING ... 17

DATA ANALYSIS ... 17

RESULTS ... 20

DEVELOPMENTS IN AGE DISTRIBUTION OF TEACHING PERSONNEL... 22

DEVELOPMENTS IN SCHOOL SIZE ... 24

DISCUSSION ... 30

IMPLICATIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ... 30

IMPLICATIONS OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS ... 31

ADVISE ON PERSONNEL POLICIES ... 32

SHORTCOMINGS... 35

FURTHER RESEARCH ... 36

LITERATURE ... 37

APPENDICES ... 39

APPENDIX 1:OVERVIEW OF INVOLVED SCHOOL BOARDS ... 39

APPENDIX 2:NUMBER OF INHABITANTS AND NUMBER OF 0-14YEAR OLDS ... 41

APPENDIX 3:AGE DISTRIBUTION OF TEACHING PERSONNEL PER SCHOOL BOARD ... 46

APPENDIX 4:OUTFLOW PER SCHOOL BOARD IN FTE AND PERCENTAGES ... 47

APPENDIX 5:OUTFLOW PER SCHOOL BOARD IN FTE AND PERCENTAGES ... 50

APPENDIX 6:DIFFERENCE IN OUTFLOW TEACHING PERSONNEL AND NUMBER OF STUDENTS IN FTE ... 53

APPENDIX 7:DIFFERENCE IN OUTFLOW DIRECTING PERSONNEL AND NUMBER OF STUDENTS IN FTE ... 57

APPENDIX 8:NUMBER OF INHABITANTS AND NUMBER OF 0-20YEAR OLDS ... 61

APPENDIX 9:DIFFERENCE IN OUTFLOW TEACHING PERSONNEL AND NUMBER OF STUDENTS IN FTE ... 66

APPENDIX 10:DIFFERENCE IN OUTFLOW DIRECTING PERSONNEL AND NUMBER OF STUDENTS IN FTE ... 70

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INTRODUCTION

In previous years classes with almost forty pupils were not unusual. Nowadays, this is no longer common, and not just because of pedagogical considerations. Because of an overall decline in population numbers, schools are contending with a decrease in number of pupils. Next to this decrease in number of pupils the mean age of the population is increasing and it is a known fact that employees in primary education have a much more unilateral age distribution and higher mean age than employees in most other sectors. Population decline and the ageing society may influence personnel policies that school boards in primary education need to administer (Nationaal Netwerk Bevolkingsdaling, 2009). Will the decline in number of pupils and the ageing of the workforce in education be in step with each other? In this research the possible consequences of the population decline, the ageing society and their consequences for personnel policies in primary education will be investigated. In doing this, the attractiveness of a profession as a teacher in regard to, amongst other things, financial aspects has also been considered (Ministerie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap, 2009). In this research the focus will be on the three northern provinces of the Netherlands. The ultimate goal is to investigate the developments for the next fifteen years, to provide insight and to provide an advice on personnel policies for school boards on how best to handle the population decline and the ageing of the society.

First of all, in this research paper demographic changes in society will be discussed.

Thereafter, an overview will be given of what it means to be a teacher. The theoretical support for this research will be concluded with a chapter about how to reach a thorough understanding of potential problems and opportunities through personnel planning.

Demographic Changes

All over the world the compilation of the population is changing. This trend is also noticeable in the Netherlands. Developments that draw attention more and more are the ageing of the society, the decline in number of births and an overall decline in population numbers in mostly rural areas. The increasing mean age of a population is being referred to by the ageing of the society.

To be more exact; in an ageing society the proportion of people older than the age of 65 is increasing. This number will increase enormously in the near future, because people born during the baby boom after the Second World War are about to reach this age. The increase in the mean age is also caused by the trend that overall less children are born. Dejuvenation is the case when the proportion of youth in society is decreasing. As a result, population numbers are declining.

Population decline can be defined as the decrease in the overall number of people in a population

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and can be caused by dejuvenation as well as by migration (Nationaal Netwerk Bevolkingsdaling, 2009).

A sector which is particularly confronted with these demographic changes is education.

The trend of the ageing society is especially seen amongst teaching personnel (Raad voor Werk en Inkomen, 2004). What will happen when in ten to fifteen years time a lot of teachers will retire? Also, dejuvenation and population decline are of major influence because they cause the schools to shrink in size. Will this decline in school size be in step with the number of teachers remaining after the retirement of the baby boomers? In the chapter Demographic changes these developments will be highlighted somewhat further.

Financial Developments

The unilateral age distribution and the high mean age that is apparent with teaching personnel have implications for personnel policies that should be administered. However, not just this unilateral age distribution and the high mean age should be considered in deciding on personnel policies, also financial developments have to be taken into account, since this may be one of the reasons that actually led to this unilateral age distribution. Several policies, developed by the national government, made the profession of a teacher financially unattractive. This may have led to fewer students deciding to become a teacher. Furthermore, for those that have become a teacher recently, it has been quite hard to find a permanent job, leading to teachers eventually searching jobs outside the field of education, because (especially in times of crisis) people prefer a permanent job above the insecurity of a temporary contract (Ministerie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap, 2009). Further details will be described in the chapter Financial developments of this research paper.

Personnel planning

The ageing of the society and the population decline have consequences on the number of personnel that will be needed in the future. Personnel planning is all about placing the right people in the right position at the right time (Bax, 2003). In doing so the quantity and quality of currently employed personnel needs to be examined. Furthermore, the dynamics in personnel that can be expected, need to be examined. Several methods can be used to calculate how many employees, based on current trends, will be needed in the future (Evers & Verhoeven, 1999).

More details about personnel planning can be found in the chapter Personnel planning of this research paper.

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Research Question

Even though evidence can be found that all of the previously described developments may cause staffing problems in education there are still boards ignoring these developments or underestimating the consequences of these developments, so that, when problems arise, they will not be ready to face them (Researchcentrum voor Onderwijs en Arbeidsmarkt, 2009).

Considering what has been described in the paragraphs above, the following research question was developed:

To what extent will problems arise on the labour market in primary education in the next fifteen years?

In order to come to an answer to this question the following sub-questions were developed:

• How many teachers will retire in the next fifteen years?

• Taking into account the likelihood of shrinking school sizes (due to dejuvenation and population decline), how many teachers will be needed in fifteen years time?

• How is the attractiveness of the profession of a teacher related to the number of students choosing a career as a teacher and to the number of teachers actually staying in education?

• What advice can be given to school boards regarding possible staffing problems in primary education?

In the following chapters the demographic development and the attractiveness of a career as a teacher and their meaning to the labour market in primary education will be described in more detail. After that, it will be described how these developments can be best surveyed to develop an approach to handle the problems that are likely to come into existence.

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DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES

The Ageing of Teaching Personnel

In an ageing society the number of people older than the age of 65 is increasing, in other words:

the mean age of a population is increasing (Nationaal Netwerk Bevolkingsdaling, 2009). The ageing of the society will not be stopped by external factors like i.e. the economic crisis. Problems that might arise as a result of the ageing of the society are therefore not just influenced by the tendency of the market but have a structural character (UWV WERKbedrijf, 2009). Resulting from the ageing of society as a whole the mean age of the labour force naturally also increases.

It is a well known fact that personnel working in education show a more unilateral age distribution and a higher mean age than personnel in other sectors. This increase in the mean age of personnel working in education is leading to an increase in pay costs (Taskforce Onderwijs en Demografische Omslag, 2009). Even though school boards in primary education can apply for compensation for this, the compensation they receive is not always adequate. The rise in pay costs due to the increasing mean age of teaching personnel is troublesome for school boards since it leaves them with less room in their staffing budget. One of the resulting problems is that less new and younger teachers can be employed (Nationaal Netwerk Bevolkinsdaling, 2009). At this moment there is still a surplus of available personnel, but because school boards are currently unable to employ new personnel those people qualified as a teacher might start looking for a job outside the field of education, although it should be mentioned that this is also influenced by other fluctuations in demand and supply on the labour market. Because of these fluctuations it is hard to predict what the chances are that these teachers will return to a job in education once they are needed again. Campaigns to realize their return will possibly be costly (Sectorbestuur Onderwijsarbeidsmarkt, 2009). At first instance, the inability to employ new and younger teachers might result in less new knowledge and skills. This leads to an imbalance between the knowledge and skills of the older employees and that of the younger ones, which results in less capacity and basis for innovations and quality improvements in education. Currently, the personnel surplus is sustained. Low inflow and a higher outflow of young personnel in proportion to the outflow of older personnel will lead to a further increase in the mean age of personnel. Later on, when the baby boom generation will retire, the current inability to employ new personnel might result in personnel shortages (Vereniging van Nederlandse Gemeenten, 2009). So, at this moment the ageing of society results in having to withhold jobs from young talents, possibly leading to a permanent loss of qualified teachers (Nationaal Netwerk Bevolkingsdaling, 2009).

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Decrease in School Size

Next to the increase in the mean age of the population, this same population also shows a decrease in numbers. Population decline is caused by dejuvenation and by a negative balance in migration numbers. Dejuvenation can be defined as the decrease in number of newborns, contributing to a higher mean age of the population. The negative balance in migration numbers is the total number of people establishing themselves in a community, minus the total number of people leaving a community. An apparent trend is the so called urbanization, the moving away from the countryside to more urban areas. This means that, apart from regions where population decline is likely to become a problem or already is, there are also urban areas experiencing growth (Dutch Population Change, 2010).

Population decline will have major consequences for the level of facilities that can be found in communities and therefore the livability in these communities. For a lot of facilities it is no longer viable to operate in regions with declining population numbers. A school is one of the facilities that remain the longest in a community with declining population numbers. (Topteam Krimp, 2009). The question is how the decline in population numbers, the ageing of the society and the dejuvenation will leave their marks on the existence of a school. In the funding system of education it is hardly accounted for that, amongst other things, education forms an important contribution to the livability of a community (Ministerie van VROM, 2009).

The ageing of the society, dejuvenation and the negative balance in migration numbers will result in less children enrolling in primary education. Eventually this will also result in less children enrolling in secondary education (Taskforce Onderwijs en Demografische Omslag, 2009). A decline in the number of pupils will also result in a decline in income; with every pupil leaving, a school looses a proportionate part of its yearly income. In a situation like this there can be spoken of remanence costs. Remanence costs entail those costs that are delayed in adaptation to lower incomes, or in other words: costs often stay the same while the benefits decrease. A school with a declining number of pupils still employs the same number of teachers and still opens the same number of classrooms every school day, until the decrease is such that the school can close a classroom or even might have to let some personnel go. But even in a scenario like this it is possible that more costs than incomes remain because of, for example, depreciation terms. Even though school boards can apply for a grant for small schools this does not completely resolve the problem. (Vereniging van Nederlandse Gemeenten, 2009; Topteam Krimp, 2009). Another problem is when somewhat bigger schools experience decline in the number of pupils because these schools cannot apply for the grant for small schools and therefore have to use resources of their own to keep their schools viable (Vereniging van

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Nederlandse Gemeenten, 2009; Nationaal Netwerk Bevolkingsdaling, 2009). In using their own resources to keep schools open a board may be stifled with earlier mentioned remanence costs.

This possibly leads to less quality in education because money cannot be invested in i.e. new teaching methods (Vereniging van Nederlandse Gemeenten, 2009; Topteam Krimp, 2009). In some cases one teacher has to take responsibility for the teaching of two (or even more) classes and the question is whether and in what way this might damage the quality of education. Recent research indicates that 17% of the schools located in Groningen, Drenthe en Friesland are underperforming; one of the causes that was pointed out was the combining of classes (Vereniging van Nederlandse Gemeenten, 2009; Nationaal Netwerk Bevolkingsdaling, 2009).

Because the number of pupils probably will decline at a faster rate than that teachers will retire there will be, as mentioned before, tension on personnel budgets resulting in a dry up of new teachers. This dry up results from currently unemployed teachers not being employed; these teachers will not stay around waiting for a permanent job, but will try their luck in another profession. This eventually might result in a loss of quality and could create a future shortage of teachers (APE, 2008).

To summarize, the consequences of population decline and dejuvenation on the quality in education and livability in communities is enormous and therefore call for urgent changes. It is expensive to keep schools open that are contending with a decline in number of students.

Because of remanence costs it is becoming a problem to invest in the quality of education.

However, quality of education is of major importance for the future. Therefore, some changes have to be made. Before people are willing to change they need to be aware of the urgency to change.

Awareness of Demographic Changes

As can be concluded from what has been discussed above there already has been quite some attention for demographic changes. However, most reports have a focus on several areas in the Netherlands that are well-known for their decline in population numbers. These are the areas Zuid-Limburg, Noordoost Groningen, Zeeuws-Vlaanderen and parts of Drenthe. It is remarkable that Groningen shows large regional differences in growth as opposed to decline.

These large regional differences are not perceived in other provinces. In Drenthe there probably will still be growth in overall population numbers. This growth is mainly located in the largest cities and cities located near the highways. Also, some growth can be expected because of elderly people moving to Drenthe to enjoy the quiet in this area. The growth in de larger cities and cities located near the highways, as is true for Drenthe, is also noticeable in Friesland. In Friesland the

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largest decline in population numbers is situated in the coastal areas (Ministerie van VROM, 2009).

Attention for declining population numbers in these areas can form a guideline for research in areas where there has not yet been a lot of attention for the problems that might result from declining population numbers. In areas where the population decline has been noticeable for years and where some suggestions have been made for solutions, these suggestions have met a lot of denial and resistance. Possible solutions are sought in more efficiency by optimizing scale, optimizing flexibility of personnel and optimizing flexibility of accommodation.

As mentioned before these solutions are not easy to administer since a lot of aversion exists against mergers and increasing scale. Possible restructuring will cost money while schools are already experiencing problems with declining incomes. Next to being a financially unattractive solution, this restructuring might result in longer distances to the nearest schools leading to higher costs for communities who are responsible for school transport and making it less attractive for parents to live in such an area. It seems that it is very important to create awareness through providing a view as accurate as possible and thereby taking away the resistance so that necessary changes can be made (Nationaal Netwerk Bevolkingsdaling, 2009). Creating awareness and a sense of urgency, a turnaround in thinking and doing from growth to decline and from denial to acknowledgement is necessary to develop recommendations and solutions for short- term problems and to develop a perspective on the long-term consequences and proposing more structural solutions. Even though creating awareness is of great importance it has to be taken into account that this might increase the risk of amplifying the downward spiral. An area that is defined as a declining area will be associated with negative feelings and will not be seen as an attractive area to go and live (Topteam Krimp, 2009).

To summarize, national, provincial and local governances have to work together to counter the mentality of ‘every man for himself’. What is needed is a mental conversion to realize a sense of urgency for a policy driven by demographics. As described before, a primary response to population decline is to resist the decline. However, the population decline is irreversible and structural and it needs to be accepted before changes can be made to the policies. In doing this, the government should be more responsive to the large regional differences in demographic changes (Raad voor het Openbaar Bestuur/Raad voor de Financiële Verhoudingen, 2008). All in all, creating awareness with school boards located in Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland, labour unions, local and provincial governances therefore is one of the main goals of this research.

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FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

Costs and Benefits

In the previous chapter it was described that incomes are declining because schools are contending with a decrease in number of pupils. The current funding system is not designed for a situation of population decline. Because a school is more or less dependent on its pupils for its income, this means that a school board receives less money when pupil numbers are declining, while costs remain the same (Taskforce Onderwijs en Demografische Omslag, 2009). Some schools are confronted with such a rapid decline in the number of pupils that, at the moment, too many teachers are employed who, due to labour agreements, cannot be fired at the same rate as the decline of the number of pupils. As a result, pay costs are much higher than would be wise considering the decrease in incomes (Nationaal Netwerk Bevolkingsdaling, 2009).

As mentioned in the chapter before, one of the solutions might be to optimize scale.

However, school boards have to provide a report on the effects of mergers before they are actually allowed to merge. The government has introduced this concept to prevent schools and school boards from merging because increasing scale apparently, according to the government, does no good to the so-called ‘human standard’ and may damage quality in education. Although this may be true for schools located in areas where there are no problems yet with declining population numbers, it might damage the schools with a decrease in number of pupils. However, a problem with merging is that a school will miss out on their grant for small schools once they merge with another school. The question then is, which situation will provide more money and how fast can this reduction in income, due to the loss of the grant for small schools, be alleviated by the merger? In a situation like this it is a challenge to have an eye for economic and social effects during the transition period as well as in the period after the transition (Topteam Krimp, 2009).

The true problem is not necessarily the small schools themselves, but the enormous and rapid decline in the number of pupils. These developments are so fast that school boards cannot keep up with the pace. To realize social goals it is important to work together on the level of school boards across communities instead of becoming each other’s competitors. Policies should enable schools to function as optimally as possible, regardless of whether they are in a situation of population decline or population growth. It is evident that a more flexible funding system that takes into account both situations of decline and growth will be better for the needs, which differ across school boards. In this, the funding in declining areas should be reduced in a slower fashion, the abrogating norm should be lowered in declining areas and the recent interpretations

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of mergers endangering the human standard should not restrain the maintenance of high quality educational facilities (Taskforce Onderwijs en Demografische Omslag, 2009).

Pay and Career Opportunity

Even though it seems that the ageing of the current workforce and the decline in number of pupils will result in enough trouble in itself, another problem is caused by the number of teachers that is needed. It can be expected that a lot of teachers will retire in the next ten to fifteen years.

This means that a lot of them, even when taking into account that the number of pupils is declining, have to be replaced. However, in education the wages are relatively low compared to jobs in other sectors, possibly making a career as a teacher less attractive and leading to less high school students deciding to follow an education to become a teacher. Over 20 years ago now, it was decided by the government to cut salaries of teachers new on the labour market, leading to large differences in pay between those who were already teaching and those who started teaching.

Off course, this led to a large disunity between the two different groups. It made it less attractive for students to study for a job as a teacher (Kleijer & Vrieze, 2000).

Furthermore, in primary education there were at the time, no possibilities to enhance ones career, pay would hardly increase over the years. Recently, the ‘Actieplan Leerkracht van Nederland’ was established. This is a plan that should make it possible for teachers to have more educational opportunities and better salary and career perspectives. This should be realized by a better distribution of teachers over the different positions and over the different wage scales, resulting in higher increases in salary over a shorter period of time than before, without the need of taking up more responsibilities such as management tasks. After all, someone does not become a teacher to end up as a manager (Sectorbestuur Onderwijsarbeidsmarkt, 2009; Ministerie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap, 2009).

Previously, it was described how better salary and career perspectives could contribute to the attractiveness of the profession as a teacher. It is questionable however, whether this is an important motivation for students to choose for a career as a teacher. In deciding to become a teacher an important reason is that one loves working with children and want to teach them something. The number of students choosing to become a teacher however is decreasing. An important development is that especially the number of men choosing to become a teacher is decreasing. In earlier times almost half of the students was male, nowadays only 17% of the students is male. A profession as a teacher in primary education is less attractive for men because of the low status and the assumption that one will earn less as a teacher compared to jobs in other sectors. This is more important to men than it is to women. Men who do choose to

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become a teacher drop out of their studies more often than women because the education is not what they expected it to be. Furthermore, the introduction of the so-called knowledge base proved to be a stumbling block for a lot of students. Tests regarding the knowledge of math and language may have led to more hesitation with students to start a teachers training and to a larger dropout in the first year of their studies (Sectorbestuur Onderwijsarbeidsmarkt, 2009; Geerdink, 2007).

Furthermore, for those who have become a teacher recently, it has been quite hard to find a permanent job, leading to teachers eventually searching for jobs outside the field of education. All this results in fewer young teachers being employed, amplifying the effect of the ageing of the society and resulting in an even more unilateral age distribution (Sectorbestuur Onderwijsarbeidsmarkt, 2009). It is important to be more aware of the age distribution in employing as well as in firing personnel. Personnel policies should include more awareness of the unilateral distribution in age (Ministerie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap, 2009). One of the areas in which this could be realized is the use of an employment policy instead of a dismissal policy. A lot of school boards make use of a dismissal policy. This policy endangers the position of teachers with the shortest time of service. The ones employed last will be fired first. Another option for school boards is to make use of an employment policy. When coping with a personnel surplus there is first the option to resign voluntarily. When this is not sufficient, employees who are redundant can be placed in a risk-baring part of the formation. In this policy not just the years of service are accounted for, it is also attempted to make use of a reflection principle, meaning that the age distribution is also considered when it is necessary to fire employees. If, after a period of two years, the employee is still redundant, the employee can be fired. Another area in which more awareness of the age distribution could be realized is the pension arrangements.

Teachers born before 1950 are able to make use of the FPU arrangement. This arrangement makes it possible for teachers to retire in a more flexible way. They can choose to retire between the age of 55 and the age of 65. The amount of money they receive after their retirement is dependent on what age they choose to retire. However, this arrangement does not apply to people born in 1950 or later. For these people there is the possibility to make use of the BAPO arrangement. This means teachers can choose for a reduction in working hours to relieve work pressure. However, when choosing to reduce their number of working hours they also hand in part of their wages. As this is not necessarily more attractive than continuing to work fulltime and eventually having saved up a larger pension fund not all of the teachers make use of this arrangement. If this arrangement would be more attractive more teachers might use it, leading to more room for younger teachers, filling up the reduction in working hours of the older teachers

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and eventually being able to take over the full job when the older teacher retires (http://www.aob.nl).

The economic crisis means enlightenment for shortages that come into existence on the short term, because new teachers on the labour market are also having trouble finding a job outside the educational field and chances are that they will be satisfied with a temporary job as a teacher. But because of the structural change in mean age these shortages will remain problematic in a quantitative as well as qualitative way. It would be better to make the profession as a teacher financially more attractive to enhance the recruitment strength for education in the long run.

There are probably also other ways to make the profession of a teacher more attractive. One option, for example, would be alleviating the workload by reducing the size of groups or by introducing assistant teachers who can take on part of the tasks as their responsibility (Ministerie van Onderwijs, Cultuur en Wetenschap, 2009).

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PERSONNEL PLANNING

Based on what has been said in the preceding chapters it can be expected that problems might come into existence on the supply side of personnel. In coming to an understanding of what might happen on the labour market in primary education and how best to handle this there is a need for personnel planning. Personnel planning is all about placing the right people in the right position at the right time. This revolves around questions like how many people and which people are needed for a certain job to do a set amount of work (Bax, 2003). This requires a thorough understanding of the current quantity and quality of personnel and of the dynamics in personnel that can be expected. In trying to accomplish this, it is important to analyze strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Strategic human resource management can be seen as a translation of strategic business issues into the domain of personnel issues. In doing so several questions need to be answered. One can think of questions such as ‘How many people will be needed, and for what positions?’, ‘How can these people be recruited?’, ‘What can be said about opportunities to enhance ones career, about mobility, about educational needs and educational necessity?’, ‘What are the chances that currently employed personnel will leave the organization?’,

‘Which potentially successful employees are currently employed?’, ‘Are there opportunities that are currently being underemployed?’ and ‘What restrictions do social policies bring?’. To calculate the future needs of employees a wide range of quantitative and qualitative methods and techniques have been developed. These vary in their complexity from extrapolation of the current trends based on linear, univariate models to more interpretative methods (Evers &

Verhoeven, 1999, p.13).

Eventually, the task that lies ahead for Human Resource Management (HRM) is to find a fit between the demand and the supply of labour. In this, HRM has to be aware of the business strategy and the context in which the business is operating. The environment is a fast changing setting and businesses should adapt to the demands that are posed on them by the environment (Bax, 2003).

In the previous chapters it was described that personnel shortages might come into existence but that not a lot is done yet to be prepared for these shortages. In coming to a turnaround in thinking a sense of urgency needs to be created. Kotter (2008) describes what can be done to create this sense of urgency. It is necessary to help others to see the need to change and to act upon the (environmental) demands. Every man in an organization needs to become aware of the change that is needed before actual changes can be made. In this research it will be attempted to calculate the future demand and supply of personnel, while also considering

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changes in the environment. It is expected that a tension will come into existence between supply and demand. In the next chapter it will be described how the research will be performed.

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METHODS

Data Gathering

For the purpose of this research several sources were used in order to develop an image as complete as possible of the demographic changes in the Netherlands. In this research statistics regarding school boards for which Onderwijs Service Groep/E&S Advies en Consultancy (OSG/E&S) provides their services were used. The following sources were of major importance in this research.

• Primos Online

• Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS)

• Onderwijs in Cijfers (information system of the government containing student and personnel data)

• InfoNet (internal information system containing student and personnel data of contracted school boards)

• Council of Higher Education (overview of number of students and graduates)

In this research an extrapolation of the current trends will be used to estimate the personnel that will be needed in the future and the possible supply of this personnel. Using the sources mentioned above, information was gathered regarding number of inhabitants and the age distribution of the population in the communities in which the involved school boards were located, the age distribution of the teachers and the number of pupils registered at the involved school boards.

Besides this, school boards, the labour union, local and provincial governments were contacted to provide insight in what was being investigated by this research and what their point of view was regarding the developments on the labour market in primary education. Next to that, several teachers colleges were contacted to provide insight in the number of students enrolled, the expected number of graduates and the expected number of graduates that will actually find a job in education. Furthermore, interviews were held with advisors working at OSG/E&S to find solutions for possible arising problems.

Data Analysis

An overview of the school boards that form the sample of this research and in which

communities they are located can be found in appendix 1. 25,67% of the total number of pupils in the province of Groningen is registered with the involved school boards. For the provinces of Drenthe and Friesland this is 51,30% and 25,30% respectively. 50,30% of the pupils in the

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communities where the involved school boards are located are registered with these school boards. For Drenthe and Friesland this is 57,39% and 47,21% respectively.

First of all, prognoses done by Primos and CBS were interpreted. The true number of inhabitants in 2008 and the prognosis of the number of inhabitants in the years 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025 were used to create a view of the extent in which population growth or decline will take place in Groningen, Drenthe en Friesland. Primos made use of an age category of 0 to 14 years, while CBS used an age category of 0 to 20 years. Because in this research the focus has been on pupils in primary education the prognoses done by Primos were used, since the age category of 0 to 14 years shows more coherence with the age of students in primary education. In this way it can be expected that data will show a more precise view than when using prognoses done by CBS. To make this report as thorough as possible however, prognoses of CBS are shown in Appendix 8, 9 and 10.

Next, statistics of Onderwijs in Cijfers were used to describe the current age distribution of teaching personnel in Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland. Birth dates of teaching personnel connected to the involved school boards were available on InfoNet. These dates were used as an indication of when teachers would retire. In this calculation it was assumed that teachers born in or before 1949 will retire at the age of 63 and people born after 1949 will retire at the age of 65.

The expected number of retired teachers, and with that, the number of FTE’s, were subtracted from the current number of FTE’s as to see what number of FTE’s would be around in 2015, 2020 and 2025. In doing this, no other forms of outflow were considered.

Subsequently, to predict the number of pupils in the future the current number of pupils and the prognosis of the number of 0 to 14 year olds in the years 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025 were used. Based on the number of 0 to 14 year olds in 2008 the increase in percentages was calculated over 5 year periods. These percentages were multiplied by the number of pupils subscribed to the school boards located in Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland in 2008. The average number of students per group is 16,43. The predicted number of pupils was divided by 16,43 to estimate the number of FTE’s, and therefore the number of teachers, that will be needed in 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025. The mean number of pupils per full-time director is 132,71. To calculate how many FTE will be needed in the management sector the number of pupils was therefore divided by 132,71.

The true numbers of FTE’s in 2010 were available on InfoNet. The estimated number of teachers that will be needed in the future, based on the prognosis of the number of pupils and the estimated number of teachers present in the future, based on the prognosis of the expected

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outflow were subtracted from each other to see what the difference will be between the decline in number of students and the decline in number of teachers in periods of 5 years.

To determine whether enough new teachers will enroll in education, data of teachers colleges were used. The number of enrolled students and the number of graduates were compared to the difference in decline of the number of pupils and the decline in number of teachers. Based on these numbers a conclusion was drawn concerning possible problems that might arise on the labour market in primary education.

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Based on the prognoses it can be concluded that, at least until 2025, a decline in number of inhabitants in several communities can be expected. Overall, it can be seen that in rural areas a lot of communities will experience decline and the urban areas will still experience growth. This is true for Groningen, as well as for Drenthe and Friesland. In

provincial level, the mean number of inhabitants will show a slight increase. The total number of inhabitants in the province of Groningen will increase with 0,28%. For Drenthe en Friesland this increase will be 3,35% and 1,82%, respectively.

Even though it can be concluded that overall population numbers will slightly increase, this conclusion cannot be drawn for all age categories. It can be seen that the number of inhabitants in the age category of 0 to 14 years will

decrease of 11,22%. In Drenthe en Friesland this decrease in number of inhabitants in the age of 0 to 14 years will be 12,73% and 9,60%, respectively.

Mean Increase and Decline in Number of Inhabitants

Source: Primos (Set date 01-01-2008)

In the figure above the mean growth or decline in population numbers in de provinces of Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland is shown. The following figures all cover the situation as can be expected on the level of data of pupils and teachers registered with the school boards

RESULTS

Based on the prognoses it can be concluded that, at least until 2025, a decline in number of bitants in several communities can be expected. Overall, it can be seen that in rural areas a lot of communities will experience decline and the urban areas will still experience growth. This is true for Groningen, as well as for Drenthe and Friesland. In figure 1.A it can be seen that, on a provincial level, the mean number of inhabitants will show a slight increase. The total number of inhabitants in the province of Groningen will increase with 0,28%. For Drenthe en Friesland this

nd 1,82%, respectively.

Even though it can be concluded that overall population numbers will slightly increase, this conclusion cannot be drawn for all age categories. It can be seen that the number of inhabitants in the age category of 0 to 14 years will decrease. In Groningen there will be a decrease of 11,22%. In Drenthe en Friesland this decrease in number of inhabitants in the age of 0 to 14 years will be 12,73% and 9,60%, respectively.

FIGURE 1.A

Mean Increase and Decline in Number of Inhabitants 2008

In the figure above the mean growth or decline in population numbers in de provinces of Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland is shown. The following figures all cover the situation as can

el of data of pupils and teachers registered with the school boards

Based on the prognoses it can be concluded that, at least until 2025, a decline in number of bitants in several communities can be expected. Overall, it can be seen that in rural areas a lot of communities will experience decline and the urban areas will still experience growth. This is figure 1.A it can be seen that, on a provincial level, the mean number of inhabitants will show a slight increase. The total number of inhabitants in the province of Groningen will increase with 0,28%. For Drenthe en Friesland this

Even though it can be concluded that overall population numbers will slightly increase, this conclusion cannot be drawn for all age categories. It can be seen that the number of decrease. In Groningen there will be a decrease of 11,22%. In Drenthe en Friesland this decrease in number of inhabitants in the age of

2008-2025

In the figure above the mean growth or decline in population numbers in de provinces of Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland is shown. The following figures all cover the situation as can

el of data of pupils and teachers registered with the school boards

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connected to OSG/E&S. From now on these school boards will be referred to by simply calling them the ‘involved school boards’.

The mean growth till 2025 in communities where involved scho

presented in figure 1.B. The mean population number of the communities in Groningen shows a decrease. In Drenthe and Friesland the mean growth in the involved communities still show a slight increase in the total population numbers

will be 4,53%, the increase in population numbers in Drenthe and Friesland will be 3,97% and 2,92% respectively. The decline in population numbers in Groningen as opposed to the growth in Drenthe and Friesland can be explained by the fact that none of the involved school boards is located in the city of Groningen, while in Drenthe and Friesland some of the involved school boards are located in the larger cities.

The number of inhabitants in the age category

decrease in Groningen and Drenthe. A decrease can also be expected in Friesland, but this decrease will not be as large as the decrease in Groningen and Drenthe. The decline of inhabitants in the age of 0 to 14 years

this decrease will be 13,27% and 6,53%. For the decrease in the number of 0 to 14 year olds it applies also that the decrease in Groningen probably shows a larger decrease because of the fact that no schools located in the city of Groningen are taken up in the analysis. Prognosis on the level of the school boards can be found in appendix 2.

Mean Increase and Decline on the Level of School Boards 2008

Source: Primos (Set date 01-01-2008)

connected to OSG/E&S. From now on these school boards will be referred to by simply calling them the ‘involved school boards’.

The mean growth till 2025 in communities where involved school boards are located is presented in figure 1.B. The mean population number of the communities in Groningen shows a decrease. In Drenthe and Friesland the mean growth in the involved communities still show a slight increase in the total population numbers. The decline in population numbers in Groningen will be 4,53%, the increase in population numbers in Drenthe and Friesland will be 3,97% and 2,92% respectively. The decline in population numbers in Groningen as opposed to the growth

nd can be explained by the fact that none of the involved school boards is located in the city of Groningen, while in Drenthe and Friesland some of the involved school boards are located in the larger cities.

The number of inhabitants in the age category of 0 to 14 year olds show a reasonable decrease in Groningen and Drenthe. A decrease can also be expected in Friesland, but this decrease will not be as large as the decrease in Groningen and Drenthe. The decline of

inhabitants in the age of 0 to 14 years in Groningen will be 23,24%. For Drenthe and Friesland this decrease will be 13,27% and 6,53%. For the decrease in the number of 0 to 14 year olds it applies also that the decrease in Groningen probably shows a larger decrease because of the fact

chools located in the city of Groningen are taken up in the analysis. Prognosis on the level of the school boards can be found in appendix 2.

FIGURE 1.B

Mean Increase and Decline on the Level of School Boards 2008

connected to OSG/E&S. From now on these school boards will be referred to by simply calling

ol boards are located is presented in figure 1.B. The mean population number of the communities in Groningen shows a decrease. In Drenthe and Friesland the mean growth in the involved communities still show a

. The decline in population numbers in Groningen will be 4,53%, the increase in population numbers in Drenthe and Friesland will be 3,97% and 2,92% respectively. The decline in population numbers in Groningen as opposed to the growth

nd can be explained by the fact that none of the involved school boards is located in the city of Groningen, while in Drenthe and Friesland some of the involved school

of 0 to 14 year olds show a reasonable decrease in Groningen and Drenthe. A decrease can also be expected in Friesland, but this decrease will not be as large as the decrease in Groningen and Drenthe. The decline of

in Groningen will be 23,24%. For Drenthe and Friesland this decrease will be 13,27% and 6,53%. For the decrease in the number of 0 to 14 year olds it applies also that the decrease in Groningen probably shows a larger decrease because of the fact

chools located in the city of Groningen are taken up in the analysis. Prognosis on the

Mean Increase and Decline on the Level of School Boards 2008-2025

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Developments in Age Distribution of Teaching Personnel

Current numbers indicate that the largest proportion of teachers is between 50 and 60 years old.

In figure 2 the mean current age distribution in percentages of personnel working at the schools connected to the school boards in Groningen, Drenthe en Friesland can be seen.

FIGURE 2

Age Distribution of Teaching Personnel in Primary Education in Percentages

Source: Onderwijs in Cijfers (Set date 01-10-2009)

This indicates that a lot of teachers will retire within five to fifteen years. Based on the analysis with birth dates the largest outflow of teaching personnel in the three Northern provinces can indeed be expected in the years between 2015 and 2020 and in the years between 2020 and 2025.

The expected outflow in FTE in Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland in percentages is shown in figure 3. It is expected that a total of 43,64% of teaching personnel in Groningen will retire in the next fifteen years. A total of 38,40% and 43,79% respectively, will retire in Drenthe and Friesland.

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Percentage Outflow Teaching Personnel in Primary Education

Source: InfoNet (Set date 01-10-2010)

As can be seen in figure 4 the outflow of directors show a similar pat

in Groningen a total of 74,24% of the directors of the involved school boards will retire. This will be 67,15% and 69,26% for Drenthe and Friesland, respectively. Exact numbers of the age distribution and the outflow of teachi

found in appendix 3, 4 and 5.

Percentage Outflow Directors in Primary Education

Source: InfoNet (Set date 01-01-2010)

FIGURE 3

Percentage Outflow Teaching Personnel in Primary Education

As can be seen in figure 4 the outflow of directors show a similar pattern. It can be expected that in Groningen a total of 74,24% of the directors of the involved school boards will retire. This will be 67,15% and 69,26% for Drenthe and Friesland, respectively. Exact numbers of the age distribution and the outflow of teaching personnel on the level of involved school boards can be

FIGURE 4

Percentage Outflow Directors in Primary Education Percentage Outflow Teaching Personnel in Primary Education

tern. It can be expected that in Groningen a total of 74,24% of the directors of the involved school boards will retire. This will be 67,15% and 69,26% for Drenthe and Friesland, respectively. Exact numbers of the age ng personnel on the level of involved school boards can be

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Developments in School Size In figure 5 the expected decline in

school boards is shown. It can be seen in the figure that the number of pupils, resulting from the decline in 0 to 14 year olds, will decrease. This applies to all three Northern provinces. Most prominent in the figure is the decrease in the years up till 2015. In Groningen this decrease is extended even up till 2020. In the years thereafter there will still be a decrease in the number of pupils, but this decrease will be of less magnitude than in th

expected that, based on current available data, the number of pupils in Friesland will show a slight increase again between 2020 and 2025.

Developments in Number of Students in Primary Education

Source: Primos and Onderwijs in Cijfers (Se

Developments in School Size

In figure 5 the expected decline in number of pupils enrolled at the schools connected to the school boards is shown. It can be seen in the figure that the number of pupils, resulting from the decline in 0 to 14 year olds, will decrease. This applies to all three Northern provinces. Most minent in the figure is the decrease in the years up till 2015. In Groningen this decrease is extended even up till 2020. In the years thereafter there will still be a decrease in the number of pupils, but this decrease will be of less magnitude than in the years up till 2015. It can be expected that, based on current available data, the number of pupils in Friesland will show a slight increase again between 2020 and 2025.

FIGURE 5

Source: Primos and Onderwijs in Cijfers (Set date Primos 01-01-2008, Set date Onderwijs in Cijfers 01-10

number of pupils enrolled at the schools connected to the school boards is shown. It can be seen in the figure that the number of pupils, resulting from the decline in 0 to 14 year olds, will decrease. This applies to all three Northern provinces. Most minent in the figure is the decrease in the years up till 2015. In Groningen this decrease is extended even up till 2020. In the years thereafter there will still be a decrease in the number of e years up till 2015. It can be expected that, based on current available data, the number of pupils in Friesland will show a

10-2008)

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The difference between the outflow and the number of students is shown in figure 6. These numbers show that more teachers will retire than children enrolling in primary education, which means that it is likely that a shortage of personnel wil

Difference Between Outflow Teaching Personnel and Number of Students

Source: Primos, Onderwijs in Cijfers and InfoNet

(Set date Primos 01-01-2008, Set date Onderwijs in Cijfers 01

From the figure it can be concluded that probably the biggest problems will arise in Friesland. In 2025 there will be a total difference of 64,76% between the outflow and the predicted number of pupils. In Groningen this total difference will be 33,37% and in Drenthe a d

can be expected. In the next figures these differences are mapped geographically.

it can be seen that, as a result of retirements, is needed and the number of teachers

The difference between the outflow and the number of students is shown in figure 6. These numbers show that more teachers will retire than children enrolling in primary education, which means that it is likely that a shortage of personnel will occur.

FIGURE 6

2008, Set date Onderwijs in Cijfers 01-10-2008, Set date InfoNet 01-01-2010)

it can be concluded that probably the biggest problems will arise in Friesland. In 2025 there will be a total difference of 64,76% between the outflow and the predicted number of pupils. In Groningen this total difference will be 33,37% and in Drenthe a difference of 47,45 can be expected. In the next figures these differences are mapped geographically.

as a result of retirements, the difference between the number of teachers that is needed and the number of teachers that is employed is increasing.

The difference between the outflow and the number of students is shown in figure 6. These numbers show that more teachers will retire than children enrolling in primary education, which

it can be concluded that probably the biggest problems will arise in Friesland. In 2025 there will be a total difference of 64,76% between the outflow and the predicted number of

ifference of 47,45 can be expected. In the next figures these differences are mapped geographically. In these figures

the difference between the number of teachers that

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FIGURE 6.A

Difference Between Outflow and Number of Pupils 2010-2015

Source Primos, Onderwijs in Cijfers and InfoNet

(Set date Primos 01-01-2008, Set date Onderwijs in Cijfers 01-10-2008, Set date InfoNet 01-01-2010)

FIGURE 6.B

Legend more than -20%

-20% to 0%

0% to 20%

20% to 40%

40% to 60%

60% to 80%

80% to 100%

-20% to 0%

0% to 20%

20% to 40%

40% to 60%

60% to 80%

80% to 100%

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FIGURE 6.C

In figure 7 the difference between the outflow of directors and the number of pupils is shown.

Here too it can be seen that more directors will retire than children enrolling in primary education. Just as with teaching personnel it can be expected that a shortage will occur. For Groningen this difference will be 205,20% in 2025. For Drenthe and Friesland this difference will be 185,37% and 176,17%, respectively.

-20% to 0%

0% to 20%

20% to 40%

40% to 60%

60% to 80%

80% to 100%

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Difference Between Outflow Directors and Number of Students

(Set date Primos 01-01-2008, Set date Onderwijs in Cijfers 01

Predictions of the number of pupils and the difference between the number of pupils and the outflow can be found in append

Financial Developments

The shortage of teachers was compared to the number of students enrolled in teachers colleges.

Teachers colleges pronounced not to use prognoses as to how many students will enroll in the future because it can hardly be

known figures were used to estimate how many teachers will make their entrance onto the labour market of primary education. In table 1 it can be seen that in 2008 623 students graduated from the teachers colleges in the Northern parts of the Netherlands

student numbers are declining. Because it is hard to estimate whether and to what extend this decline will continue the number of 623 was multiplied by 5 to cal

graduate in the periods up till 2015, 2020 and 2025.

.

FIGURE 7

Onderwijs in Cijfers and InfoNet

2008, Set date Onderwijs in Cijfers 01-10-2008, Set date InfoNet 01-01-2010)

Predictions of the number of pupils and the difference between the number of pupils and the outflow can be found in appendix 6 and 7.

Teachers colleges pronounced not to use prognoses as to how many students will enroll in the future because it can hardly be predicted. Therefore, the number of graduates from the last known figures were used to estimate how many teachers will make their entrance onto the labour market of primary education. In table 1 it can be seen that in 2008 623 students graduated from in the Northern parts of the Netherlands. Also, it can be noticed that overall student numbers are declining. Because it is hard to estimate whether and to what extend this decline will continue the number of 623 was multiplied by 5 to calculate how many students will graduate in the periods up till 2015, 2020 and 2025.

Predictions of the number of pupils and the difference between the number of pupils and the

Teachers colleges pronounced not to use prognoses as to how many students will enroll in the predicted. Therefore, the number of graduates from the last known figures were used to estimate how many teachers will make their entrance onto the labour market of primary education. In table 1 it can be seen that in 2008 623 students graduated from . Also, it can be noticed that overall student numbers are declining. Because it is hard to estimate whether and to what extend this culate how many students will

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TABLE 1

Number of Graduates from Teachers Education

2005 2006 2007 2008

Number of Graduates 804 797 735 623

Source: HBO-raad

In table 2 the shortages on school board level are shown. These school boards account for 33,16% of the total number of pupils in the three northern provinces. Therefore, the shortages were transformed in such a way to calculate to what extent shortages on a provincial level will come into existence. Furthermore, it is expected that not all of the graduates will actually search for or find a job in education, therefore a correction of 20% was used. In the table it can be seen that in the next 10 years no shortages will occur. The difference however is reduced over the years and finally will result in a shortage. However, shortages that are calculated for 2025 can probably be abated by those teachers who were not able to find a job in the years before.

TABLE 2

Number of FTE Compared to Number of Teachers Flowing into Education

2010 2015 2020 2025

Shortages on School Board Level (33,16%) 50,05 75,76 549,56 1151,27 Shortages on Provincial Level (100%) 150,92 228,44 1657,10 3471,45

Maximum Potential (623*5) - 3115 3115 3115

Actual Career in Education (80%) - 2492 2492 2492

Remaining Difference - 2263,56 834,90 -979,45

Source: InfoNet, CBS and HBO-raad

Calculations in the section above are quite blunt and probably not completely right. It was not accounted for that student numbers are declining and because of the lack of prognoses these numbers cannot lead to such a clear-stated conclusion as was done in that same section above.

Even though there is no direct reason for concern about possible shortages these findings need to be seen in a wider context. Conclusions concerning this issue and the wider context are described in the next chapter.

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DISCUSSION

In this research the following question was investigated:

To what extent will problems arise on the labour market in primary education?

In investigating this question several sub-questions have been of help to develop insight in the problems that might arise. In this chapter these questions and accompanying conclusions will be discussed to be able to answer the research question and to advise school boards on how to handle demographic changes.

Implications of Demographic Changes

Several reports have provided insight in the demographic developments that can be expected.

The ageing of the society and the dejuvenation and the consequences of these changes in demographics are topics high on the agenda of the national government but with provincial and local governments insights are still low and plans to be prepared are not yet being developed everywhere. The ageing of the society will have major consequences for several professions. A profession in which this ageing of the society is very apparent is education. The dejuvenation and the decline in the overall population numbers have their impact on school sizes (Taskforce Onderwijs en Demografische Omslag, 2009). In this research an attempt was made to provide insight in the situation that might evolve as a result of these demographic changes.

How many teachers will retire in the next fifteen years?

It is known that the mean age of personnel working in education is higher than in a lot of other professions. This is also apparent with the school boards located in Groningen, Drenthe and Friesland. The unilateral age distribution shows that most of the teachers are between the age of 50 and 60 years old. This means that there will be a large outflow of teachers in the years to come. The question is whether this outflow will be in step with the decline in the number of pupils and the number of new teachers enrolling in the educational labour market.

Taking into account the likelihood of shrinking school sizes (due to dejuvenation and population decline), how many teachers will be needed in fifteen years time?

Current developments in demographics show that overall fewer children are born. In the near future this fact will have its implications on school sizes. Even when overall population numbers