CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting Scripts

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting Scripts

NOAA’s CPC International Desks

NOAA-USAID 11ITWCVP - Ankara, Turkey, 15 – 26 April 2019

Outline

Download the CFS (NCEP) S2S Data from the IRIDL server

Generate maps of Raw forecast and associate skill

Produced the calibrated forecast o Make the data ready for CPT

o Calibrated using CPT: Maps of calibrated Forecast and associate skill maps

Generate map of observed anomalies for eye ball verification

The current version is valid only for the precipitation . Future release will include temperature

Copying and Unpacking

1. Make sure that you have copy of S2S_CPT_FCST.tar.gz file in your cygwin/linux home folder.

A copy is available at following address:

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/11ITWCVP_Ankara2019/S2S_CPT_FRCST.tar.gz

2. From your cygwin/Linux terminal, uncompress the file:

tar -xzvf S2S_CPT_FCST.tar.gz

3. Go to the folder S2S_CPT_FCST : cd S2S_CPT_FCST

4. List to see his content :

ls

Download the NCEP CFS S2S data (forecast, hindcast) and the historical observed data

bash get_S2S_data.sh idate tgtprd obsbse

 idate - Forecast initiation date in the format YYYYMMDD (eg. 20190211)

 tgtprd - Forecast target period. It can be "5days" "10days" "week1" "week2" "week34"

 obsbse - Source’s name of the observed data. Valid option are "cpcuni" or "arc2"

The downloaded data (forecast, hindcast, historical observed) are in the folder : S2S_DATA/idate/trgtprd/grads_data

The processing time depends on your internet connection speed and your computer processor speed.

Make the data ready for CPT :

Converting from binary to cpt format

bash Convert_S2S_bin2cpt.sh idate tgtprd obsbse ylatS ylatN ylonW ylonE

 idate - Forecast initiation date in the format YYYYMMDD (eg. 20190211)

 tgtprd - Forecast target period. It can be "5days" "10days" "week1" "week2" "week34"

 obsbse - Source’s name of the observed data. Valid option are "cpcuni" or "arc2"

 ylatS - Southern boundary of the area of interest

 ylatN - Northern boundary of the area of interest

 ylonW - Western boundary of the area of interest

 ylonE - Eastern boundary of the area of interest

The converted data (forecast, hindcast, historical observed) are in the folder : S2S_DATA/idate/trgtprd/cpt_data

Files names are :

model_fcst_trgtprd.tsv model_hdcst_trgtprd.tsv obs_hist_trgtprd.tsv

They can be used within windows version of CPT

Make the data ready for CPT (cntd):

Converting from binary to cpt format (Examples)

bash Convert_S2S_bin2cpt.sh 20190211 10days cpcuni -59.75 59.75 -179.75 179.75 bash Convert_S2S_bin2cpt.sh 20190211 week1 cpcuni -59.75 59.75 -179.75 179.75 bash Convert_S2S_bin2cpt.sh 20190211 week2 cpcuni -59.75 59.75 -179.75 179.75 bash Convert_S2S_bin2cpt.sh 20190211 week34 cpcuni -59.75 59.75 -179.75 179.75

Calibrating CFS S2S forecast using CPT :

bash CPT_S2S_Calib.sh idate tgtprd mthds obsbse ylatS ylatN ylonW ylonE xlatS xlatN xlonW xlonE

 idate - Forecast initiation date in the format YYYYMMDD (eg. 20190211)

 tgtprd - Forecast target period. It can be "5days" "10days" "week1" "week2" "week34"

 mthds - The calibration method. Valid option are "GCM", "CCA" or "PCR"

 obsbse - Source’s name of the observed data. Valid option are "cpcuni" or "arc2"

 ylatS , ylatN, ylonW , ylonE are respectively the extend of the predictand ie the geographical coordinates of the area of interest

 xlatS , xlatN, xlonW , xlonE are respectively the extend of the predictor ie the geographical coordinates of the domain to consider for the model

The calibrated forecast map and the associated skill map are in the folder : Figures_SubX_Frcst_Calib/init_idate/By_mthds

Under the name :

NCEP_trgtprd_fcst_mthds_calib.png ; the map of calibrated forecast (probabilistic) PC_skill_map_trgtprd_fcst_mthds_calib.png ; the associate Pearson Correlation skill map

Calibrating CFS S2S forecast using CPT (cntd): Examples

1. bash CPT_S2S_Calib.sh 20190211 week2 GCM cpcuni -59.75 59.75 -179.75 179.75 -90 90 0 360

2. bash CPT_S2S_Calib.sh 20190211 week2 CCA cpcuni -59.75 59.75 -179.75 179.75 -90 90 0

360

Case 1 Case 2

Figures_SubX_Frcst_Calib/init_20190211/By_GCM Figures_SubX_Frcst_Calib/init_20190211/By_CCA NCEP_week2_fcst_GCM_calib.png

PC_skill_map_week2_fcst_GCM_calib.png NCEP_week2_fcst_CCA_calib.png

PC_skill_map_week2_fcst_CCA_calib.png

Generating the raw forecast maps – Any differences with the Calibrated forecasts?

converting deterministic forecast into probabilistic map using model climatology

bash plot_S2S_Raw_frcst.sh idate tgtprd obsbse ylatS ylatN ylonW ylonE

 idate - Forecast initiation date in the format YYYYMMDD (eg. 20190211)

 tgtprd - Forecast target period. It can be "5days" "10days" "week1" "week2" "week34"

 obsbse - Source’s name of the observed data. Valid option are "cpcuni" or "arc2"

 ylatS - Southern boundary of the area of interest

 ylatN - Northern boundary of the area of interest

 ylonW - Western boundary of the area of interest

 ylonE - Eastern boundary of the area of interest

This will generate two maps under the Folder:

Figures_SubX_Frcst_Calib/init_idate/RAW_FCST

1- NCEP_trgtprd_RAW_FCST.png : the raw forecast probabilistic map

2- PC_skill_map_trgtprd_RAW_FCST.png : the associate Pearson Correlation skill map

Generating the raw forecast maps – Any differences with the Calibrated forecasts? (cntd) : Examples

converting deterministic forecast into probabilistic map using model climatology

bash plot_S2S_Raw_frcst.sh 20190211 week2 cpcuni -59.75 59.75 -179.75 179.75

The above command line will generate two file under the Folder:

Figures_SubX_Frcst_Calib/init_20190211/RAW_FCST Those files are :

NCEP_week2_RAW_FCST.png

PC_skill_map_week2_RAW_FCST.png

Plotting observed anomalies for verification

bash plot_obs_for_verif.sh idate tgtprd obsbse ylatS ylatN ylonW ylonE

 idate - Forecast initiation date in the format YYYYMMDD (eg. 20190211)

 tgtprd - Forecast target period. It can be "5days" "10days" "week1" "week2" "week34"

 obsbse - Source’s name of the observed data. Valid option are "cpcuni" or "arc2"

 ylatS - Southern boundary of the area of interest

 ylatN - Northern boundary of the area of interest

 ylonW - Western boundary of the area of interest

 ylonE - Eastern boundary of the area of interest

This action will generate the containing file the observed anomalies map. It can be found in the folder : Figures_SubX_Frcst_Calib/init_idate

The file name would look like:

obsbse_anom_obs_trgtprd.png

The processing time depends on your internet connection speed

Plotting observed anomalies for verification (cntd) – Examples

bash plot_obs_for_verif.sh 20190211 week2 cpcuni -59.75 59.75 -179.75 179.75

This action will generate the containing file the observed anomalies map. It can be found in the folder : Figures_SubX_Frcst_Calib/init_20190211

The file name is : cpcuni_anom_obs_week2.png

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting Scripts – Summary

1. cd S2S_CPT_FCST

2. bash get_S2S_data.sh idate tgtprd obsbse

3. bash plot_S2S_Raw_frcst.sh idate tgtprd obsbse ylatS ylatN ylonW ylonE 4. bash Convert_S2S_bin2cpt.sh idate tgtprd obsbse ylatS ylatN ylonW ylonE 5. bash CPT_S2S_Calib.sh idate tgtprd mthds obsbse ylatS ylatN ylonW ylonE

xlatS xlatN xlonW xlonE

6. bash plot_obs_for_verif.sh idate tgtprd obsbse ylatS ylatN ylonW ylonE Where :

 idate - Forecast initiation date in the format YYYYMMDD (eg. 20190211)

 tgtprd - Forecast target period. It can be "5days" "10days" "week1" "week2" "week34"

 mthds - The calibration method. Valid option are "GCM", "CCA" or "PCR"

 obsbse - Source’s name of the observed data. Valid option are "cpcuni" or "arc2"

 ylatS , ylatN, ylonW , ylonE are respectively the extend of the predictand ie the geographical coordinates of the area of interest

 xlatS , xlatN, xlonW , xlonE are respectively the extend of the predictor ie the geographical coordinates of the domain to consider for the model

The processing time depends on your internet connection speed and your computer processor speed.

The current version is valid only for the precipitation . Future releases will include temperature

Hands on Tools :

Practice CPT based Sub-seasonal Forecasting (1)

Initiation

date Target period Calibration

Method Observed

data Target area

(

) Model area (

)

Feb 11, 2019 10days, week1,

week2, week34 GCM, CCA, PCR cpcuni

Africa, Europe and Middle East [40S-60N / 20W-60E]

[60S-60N / 0-360E]

Asia and Maritime Continent [40S-60N / 60E-179.75E]

Central and South America [60S-30N / 120W-30W]

For this initiation date the data are already provide.

So on regarding slide 13, skip step 2 and proceed accordingly with the others steps.

Depending on your geographical belonging produce the forecast maps using the

parameters described in the table below.

Hands on Tools :

Practice CPT based Sub-seasonal Forecasting (2)

Initiation

date Target period Calibration

Method Observed

data Target area

(

) Model area (

)

Pick a start date in the past.

Just make sure that the target period is in the past so you can plot the observed anomalies.

10days, week1,

week2, week34 GCM, CCA, PCR cpcuni

Africa, Europe and Middle East [40S-60N / 20W-60E]

[60S-60N / 0-360E]

Asia and Maritime Continent [40S-60N / 60E-179.75E]

Central and South America [60S-30N / 120W-30W]

In this case you will need to run all the steps as described on slide 13.

Depending on your geographical belonging produce the forecast maps using the

parameters described in the table below.